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North Korea: “The Missile Program Is Now Complete”
Last night the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched another nuclear capable missile. It was a new type never shown before. Its name is Hwasong-15 and it is a beauty.
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The new missile is huge. Note Kim Jong Il in his black coat on the left. He is 5'7 or 1.70 meters. The transporter-erector vehicle with the missile must be nearly 20' or 6 meters high and the missile must have a diameter of 2+ meters.
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The vehicle is a modified copy of a Chinese WS51200. North Korea once bought 5 or 6 of these to "haul lumber from the mountains". All were of course used as missile transporters. A ninth axle has been added to the original design to carry the additional load of the huge missile and its firing table. The vehicle is not a TEL, a transporter, erector and launcher, but a TE. The missile is erected and set vertical on the firing table. The vehicle is removed for the launch.
The first guestimates for the total weight of the missile currently vary between 45 and 60 metric tons. I believe it is a bit more. My thumb-rule says that a heavy military truck can haul 10 metric tons of cargo per axle. Nine axles times 10 minus the weight of the firing table and the erector system could leave some 70 tons for the missile. They did not add the ninth axle for nothing.
The missile looks like a Titan II missile shrunken by 30%. The Titan II was U.S. intercontinental nuclear missile developed in the 1960s. It is not the most modern concept but solid.
Cont. reading: North Korea: “The Missile Program Is Now Complete”
State Department Condemns* Designation Of Media As Foreign Agents (*only applies to Russia)
UPDATED below
—
Today the U.S. State Department hit the ball of hypocrisy out of the park.
It remarked that "legislation that allows .. to label media outlets as 'foreign agents' … presents yet another threat to free media". It noted that "freedom of expression—including speech and media … is a universal human rights obligation".
The remark came after the U.S. Department of Justice required the Russian outlet RT America to register as a 'foreign agent' under the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA). RT registered as ordered on November 13.
But the State Department statement was NOT in response to the DOJ requirement against RT. The State Department reacted to a new Russian law that was issued in response to the demand against RT. The new Russian law is a mirror to the U.S. FARA law. It demands that foreign media which are active in Russia register as 'foreign agents'. (The EU poodles followed the State Department nonsense with an equally dumb statement.)
With its criticism of the Russian version of the FARA law while ignoring the U.S. FARA action against RT, the State Department confirmed the allegations of hypocrisy RT and other media have raised against the U.S. government.
The whole issue started with the notable liar James Clapper under the Obama administration. He and other 'intelligence' people found that RT was too truthful in its reporting to be allowed to inform the U.S. public. Publication of criticism of the U.S. government based on verifiable facts is seen as an unfriendly act which must be punished.
Congress and the U.S. Justice Department under the Trump administration followed up on that. FARA is originally NOT directed against foreign media. The Trump Justice Department circumvented the spirit of the law to apply it to RT.
The Russian government had warned several times that the application of FARA against RT would be followed up on with a similar requirement against U.S. media in Russia. The Trump administration ignored those warnings. It now condemns the Russian move.
Here is timeline of the relevant events:
Cont. reading: State Department Condemns* Designation Of Media As Foreign Agents (*only applies to Russia)
Last Call – Please Support This Unique Endeavor
This blog was founded in June 2004 as a substitute for the closed comment section of Billmon's Whiskey Bar blog. The Bar was since shut down and this blog developed its own standing.
Since its beginning the Moon of Alabama blog received 24,923,925 pageviews. 6,838 posts were published and 327,800 valuable comments contributed to it.
The quality of the content increased over time. The general subjects continue to be the wars and propaganda of the U.S. empire. The McCarthyrite PropOrNot, (promoted by the Washington Post) described this site as a "U.S. facing Russian propaganda outlet". They disliked the warning about false flag attacks in Syria.
Moon of A is not Russian propaganda. But it takes a wider perspective than other media. Here are some recent examples:
Where else could you read such pieces?
For me, Bernhard, the writing, editing and managing of this blog has turned into a full time endeavor. That is why I need and ask for your support. Every donation to this Poor Poet, be it €5, $50 or £500, is welcome and needed.
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Thanks!
Bernhard aka b.
Turning The Corner In Afghanistan
The news about the wars the U.S. is waging all over the world is unreliable. The same statements of progress are repeated year after year. The official numbers, be they of civilian casualties or deployed troops, are mere lies. Every news presentation should be engraved with a warning: "Assertions and numbers are not what they appear." Consider, for example, the various "turned corner" statements officials have made about Afghanistan.
On October 5 2017 the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani confirmed to the BBC that Afghanistan has "turned the corner":
… when I ask whether he is saying Afghan forces have turned the corner in the fight against the Taliban, there is no hesitation: "Yes," he says.
On October 24 the U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan General John Nicholson agreed with President Ghani:
"With the mounting military, diplomatic, and social pressure that is building – that we all are collectively committed to sustaining over the coming years – the enemy will have no choice but to reconcile. I believe, as President Ghani says, 'we have turned the corner,’” he concluded.
But a month later General Nicholson seemed to disagreed with his earlier statement:
"We are still in a stalemate," Nicholson, a four-star Army general said in an exclusive interview.
Today, five days after his "stalemate" statement, the general's opinion has changed again. Kevin Baron, the editor of Defense One, reports:
JUST IN: Top US general in Afghanistan says war has "turned a corner… " The momentum is now with the Afghan security forces." …
The General seems confused. But he is not the first to have such a change of mind.
On February 3 2010 then U.S. commander General Stanley McChrystal was cautious about the proverbial corner:
General Stanley McChrystal also expressed confidence that Afghan forces would grow quickly enough to allow a reduction in U.S. troop numbers to begin on schedule in 2011. … “I‘m not prepared to say we have turned the corner,” he added.
Only twelve days later the turn had been made:
Cont. reading: Turning The Corner In Afghanistan
Saudi Arabia – Budget Dilemma Escalates – Salmans Resort To Product Placement?
Once upon a time owning a clock was a status symbol. Only the very wealthy and powerful could afford one. Ordinary people had to rely on the church- or town-clock. Privately owned clocks were only found in the finest places and were displayed in prominent positions for all to admire.
The expensive clock on the mantelshelf is no longer distinguishing. New artifacts have replaced them as status symbols.
The House of Saud under King Salman and his son Clown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have developed a taste for a specific type of these. They can be seen at the center of dozens of official photos of the Salmans meeting foreign and domestic dignitaries. Unlike decent clocks these artifacts are of little use within the staged context.
The various artifacts the Salmans collected are of different designs but are all sourced from the same manufacturer. Their inevitable center place stinks of product placement. We know that the Salmans need money. They nab, incarcerate and torture the richest people of their country to rob their wealth and assets. The Salmans originally expected to make $800 billion from the current raid. They now cut their expectations down to a mere $100 billion. In the end it will less than half of that. It will not be enough to fill the holes in the Saudi budget.
But paid for product placements in official pictures? The few million dollars such product placements bring are like a drop of rain in the Najd. It evaporates before it reaches the ground. Are the Salmans THAT broke?
Spot the artifacts here:
Cont. reading: Saudi Arabia – Budget Dilemma Escalates – Salmans Resort To Product Placement?
Please Support This Poor Poet
A recent BBC Breaking "Exclusive" showed how the U.S. and its proxy forces made a deal with the Islamic State. Under U.S. supervision hundreds of ISIS fighters in Syria were allowed to leave the besieged Raqqa. This site reported the *breaking* news when it happened, a full month earlier than the BBC.
Moon of Alabama provides news and analysis which mainstream media cover late, or not at all. That's not an easy feat. This site is free. It offers information which is hard to find elsewhere. It offers original thought and no-nonsense writing on a (nearly) daily basis. It has an open and lively comment section. It is the full-time effort of this single person.
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The growing readership of the blog and your feed back keep me going. But I also need to eat and pay rent. I have little other income. Thus every donation to this Poor Poet, be it $5, $50 or $500, is welcome and needed. A recurring contribution or institutional sponsorship would be great.
Cont. reading: Please Support This Poor Poet
Weekly Review And Open Thread 2017-43
Trump Wants Peace With Erdogan – The Miltary Wants To Sabotage It
President Trump is attempting to calm down the U.S. conflict with Turkey. The military junta in the White House has different plans. It now attempts to circumvent the decision the president communicated to his Turkish counterpart. The result will be more Turkish-U.S. acrimony.
Yesterday the Turkish foreign minister surprisingly announced a phone call President Trump had held with President Erdogan of Turkey.
United States President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke on the phone on Nov. 24 only days after a Russia-Turkey-Iran summit on Syria, with Ankara saying that Washington has pledged not to send weapons to the People’s Protection Units (YPG) any more.
“President Trump instructed [his generals] in a very open way that the YPG will no longer be given weapons. He openly said that this absurdity should have ended much earlier,” Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu told reporters after the phone call.
Trump had announced the call:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Will be speaking to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey this morning about bringing peace to the mess that I inherited in the Middle East. I will get it all done, but what a mistake, in lives and dollars (6 trillion), to be there in the first place!
12:04 PM – 24 Nov 2017
During the phone call Trump must have escaped his minders for a moment and promptly tried to make, as announced, peace with Erdogan. The issue of arming the YPG is really difficult for Turkey to swallow. Ending that would probably make up for the recent NATO blunder of presenting the founder of modern Turkey Kemal Atatürk and Erdogan himself as enemies.
The YPG is the Syrian sister organization of the Turkish-Kurdish terror group PKK. Some weapons the U.S. had delivered to the YPK in Syria to fight the Islamic State have been recovered from PKK fighters in Turkey who were out to kill Turkish security personal. Despite that, supply for the YPG continued. In total over 3,500 truckloads were provided to it by the U.S. military. Only recently the YPK received some 120 armored Humvees, mine clearance vehicles and other equipment.
The generals in the White House and other parts of the administration were caught flat-footed by the promise Trump has made. The Washington Post writes:
Initially, the administration’s national security team appeared surprised by the Turks’ announcement and uncertain what to say about it. The State Department referred questions to the White House, and hours passed with no confirmation from the National Security Council.
The White House finally released what the Associated Press called:
a cryptic statement about the phone call that said Trump had informed the Turk of “pending adjustments to the military support provided to our partners on the ground in Syria.”
Neither a read-out of the call nor the statement AP refers to are currently available on the White House website.
The U.S. military uses the YPG as proxy power in Syria to justify and support its occupation of north-east Syria, The intent of the occupation is , for now, to press the Syrian government into agreeing to a U.S. controlled "regime change":
U.S. officials have said they plan to keep American troops in northern Syria — and continue working with Kurdish fighters — to pressure Assad to make concessions during peace talks brokered by the United Nations in Geneva, stalemated for three years now. “We’re not going to just walk away right now,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said last week.
To solidify its position the U.S. needs to further build up and strengthen its YPG mercenary forces.
When in 2014 the U.S. started to use Kurds in Syria as its foot-soldiers, it put the YPG under the mantle of the so called Syrian Democratic Forces and paid some Syrian Arabs to join and keep up the subterfuge. This helped to counter the Turkish argument that the U.S. was arming and supporting terrorists. But in May 2017 the U.S. announced to arm the YPG directly without the cover of the SDF. The alleged purpose was to eliminate the Islamic State from the city of Raqqa.
The YPG had been unwilling to fight for the Arab city unless the U.S. would provide it with more money, military supplies and support. All were provided. The U.S. special forces, who control the YPG fighters, directed an immense amount of aerial and artillery ammunition against the city. Any potential enemy position was destroyed by large ammunition and intense bombing before the YPG infantry proceeded. In the end few YPG fighters died in the fight. The Islamic State was let go or eliminated from the city but so was the city of Raqqa. The intensity of the bombardment of the medium size city was at times ten times greater than the bombing in all of Afghanistan. Airwars reported:
Since June, an estimated 20,000 munitions were fired in support of Coalition operations at Raqqa. Images captured by journalists in the final days of the assault show a city in ruins.
Several thousand civilians were killed in the indiscriminate onslaught.
The Islamic State in Syria and Iraq is defeated. It no longer holds any ground. There is no longer any justification to further arm and supply the YPG or the dummy organization SDF.
But the generals want to continue to do so to further their larger plans. They are laying grounds to circumvent their president's promise. The Wall Street Journal seems to be the only outlet to pick up on the subterfuge:
President Donald Trump’s administration is preparing to stop sending weapons directly to Kurdish militants battling Islamic State in Syria, dealing a political blow to the U.S.’s most reliable ally in the civil war, officials said Friday.
…
The Turkish announcement came as a surprise in Washington, where military and political officials in Mr. Trump’s administration appeared to be caught off-guard. U.S. military officials said they had received no new guidance about supplying weapons to the Kurdish forces. But they said there were no immediate plans to deliver any new weapons to the group. And the U.S. can continue to provide the Kurdish forces with arms via the umbrella Syrian militant coalition.
The "military officials" talking to the WSJ have found a way to negate Trump's promise.
A spokesperson of the SDF, the ethnic Turkman Talaf Silo, recently defected and went over to the Turkish side. The Turkish government is certainly well informed about the SDF and knows that its political and command structure is dominated by the YPK. The whole concept is a sham.
But the U.S. needs the YPG to keep control of north-east Syria. It has to continue to provide whatever the YPG demands, or it will have to give up its larger scheme against Syria.
The Turkish government will soon find out that the U.S. again tried to pull wool over its eyes. Erdogan will be furious when he discovers that the U.S. continues to supply war material to the YPG, even when those deliveries are covered up as supplies for the SDF.
The Turkish government released a photograph showing Erdogan and five of his aids taking Trump's phonecall. Such a release and the announcement of the call by the Turkish foreign minister are very unusual. Erdogan is taking prestige from the call and the public announcement is to make sure that Trump sticks to his promise.
This wide publication will also increase Erdogan's wrath when he finds out that he was again deceived.
And Then The Clown Prince Told Friedman: ‘Suck On This.’
The Moustache of Understanding, Thomas Friedman, has written the probably most embarrassing fanfiction ever:
The most significant reform process underway anywhere in the Middle East today is in Saudi Arabia. Yes, you read that right. Though I came here at the start of Saudi winter, I found the country going through its own Arab Spring, Saudi style.
Unlike the other Arab Springs — all of which emerged bottom up and failed miserably, except in Tunisia — this one is led from the top down by the country’s 32-year-old crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and, if it succeeds, it will not only change the character of Saudi Arabia but the tone and tenor of Islam across the globe.
Friedman once said that U.S. soldiers must shove their guns into the face of random Arabs and tell them to "suck on this". How things change. Friedman now went to Riyadh to suck on whatever side of his abdomen Mohammed bin Salman shoved into his mustached mouth:
We met at night at his family’s ornate adobe-walled palace in Ouja, north of Riyadh. M.B.S. spoke in English, while his brother, Prince Khalid, the new Saudi ambassador to the U.S., and several senior ministers shared different lamb dishes and spiced the conversation. After nearly four hours together, I surrendered at 1:15 a.m. to M.B.S.’s youth, pointing out that I was exactly twice his age. It’s been a long, long time, though, since any Arab leader wore me out with a fire hose of new ideas about transforming his country.
"Look here! MbS SPEAKS ENGLISH (and pays in dollars)! This must be OUR GUY."
("And don't ya all love those (homo-)sexual allusions I enwombed in those words?")
Tom Friedman (left) being "instructed" of his next fellacious duty (artist conception)
It hasn't been such a "long, long time" since Friedman used that "wore me out" cliche. Only two years exactly, or four Friedman units, have passed since he last fellatiated MbS like this:
Cont. reading: And Then The Clown Prince Told Friedman: ‘Suck On This.’
Give Thanks To MoA
It is Thanksgiving. It will soon be Christmas. Please consider to give some thanks, or a Christmas present, to this site.
Moon of Alabama publishes original content, stuff that is hard to find elsewhere. It provides fact checked no-nonsense writing on a (nearly) daily basis. The site is free. It has an open and lively comment section. It is the full-time effort of this single person.
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The growing readership of the blog and your feed back keep me going. But I also need to eat and pay rent. Thus every donation to this Poor Poet, be it $5, $50 or $500, is welcome and needed. A recurring contribution or institutional sponsorship would be great.
Cont. reading: Give Thanks To MoA
Syria – This U.S. Occupation – Or “Presence” – Is Unsustainable
[It takes time and effort to write such analyses. Please consider to support their publication.]
The U.S. is now occupying north-east Syria. It wants to blackmail the Syrian government into "regime change". The occupation is unsustainable, its aim is unattainable. The generals who devised these plans lack strategic insight. They listen to the wrong people.
The Islamic State no longer holds any significant ground in Syria and Iraq. What is left of it in a few towns of the Euphrates valley will soon be gone. Its remnants will be some of several terror gangs in the region. Local forces can and will hold those under adequate control. The Islamic State is finished. This is why the Lebanese Hizbullah announced to pull back all its advisors and units from Iraq. It is the reason why Russia began to repatriated some of its units from Syria. Foreign forces are no longer needed to eliminate the remains of ISIS.
Map by Southfront – bigger
In its UN Security Council resolutions 2249 (2015) for the fight against ISIS the UNSC was:
“Reaffirming its respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence and unity of all States in accordance with purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter,
…
Calls upon Member States that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures, in compliance with international law, in particular with the United Nations Charter, … on the territory under the control of ISIL also known as Da’esh, in Syria and Iraq, to redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by ISIL … and entities associated with Al-Qaida … and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria;
There is no longer any "territory under the control of ISIL". Its "safe havens" have been "eradicated". The task laid out and legitimized in the UNSC resolution is finished. It is over. There is no longer any justification, under UNSC Res 2249, for U.S. troops in Syria or Iraq.
Other legal justifications, like an invitation from the legitimate governments of Syria and Iraq, could apply. But while Syria has invited Russian, Iranian and Lebanese forces to stay in its country it has not invited U.S. forces. These are now illegally occupying Syrian land in the north-east of the country. The Syrian government explicitly called it such.
(One wonder how long it will take the sanctimonious European Union to sanction the U.S. for its egregious breach of international law and for violating the sovereignty of Syria.)
According to official documents more than 1,700 U.S. troops are currently in Syria. The publicly announced number is only 500. "Temporary" forces make the up the difference. (Overall U.S. troop numbers in the Middle East have increased by 33% over the last four month. The numbers doubled in Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. No explanation has been given for these increases.)
The U.S. troops in Syria are allied with the Kurdish YPG. The YPG is the Syrian branch of the internationally designated Kurdish terrorist organization PKK. Only about 2-5% of the Syrian population are of Kurdish-Syrian descent. Under U.S. command they now control more than 20% of Syrian state territory and some 40% of its hydrocarbon reserves. This is thievery on a grand scale.
To disguise its cooperation with the Kurdish terrorists, the U.S. renamed the group into the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF). Some Arab fighters from east Syrian tribes were added to it. These are mostly former foot-soldiers of ISIS who changed sides when the U.S. offered better pay. Other fighters were pressed into service. The people of the Syrian-Arab city Manbij, which is occupied by the YPG and U.S. forces, protested when the YPG started to violently conscript its youth.
New troops were added to the SDF during the last days when ISIS fighters escaped from the onslaught of Syrian and Iraq forces in Abu Kamal (aka Albu Kamal aka Bukamal). They fled northwards towards YPG/U.S. held areas. Like other ISIS fighters the U.S. helped to escape their deserved punishment these forces will be relabeled and reused.
The Russian Ministry of Defense accused the U.S. of blocking the lower airspace over Abu Kamal while its Syrian allies were trying to liberate it. For eight days Russian high flying long range bombers had to come all the way from Russia to provide support for its troops on the ground. In a recent TV speech the leader of the Lebanese Hizbullah, Hassan Nasrallah, accused the U.S. troops in Syria of providing drone intelligence to ISIS in Abu Kamal. ISIS used it to shell Syrian and allied forces. Several high officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed in such attacks. Nasrallah also said that the U.S. used electronic warfare measures to disable the radios of the attacking force. He said that it rescued fleeing ISIS troops. Nasrallah's accusations are consistent with reports from the ground. (The U.S. and its allies also continue to supply other terrorist groups in north-west and the south-west of Syria.)
Neither Nasrallah nor the IRGC will forget those misdeeds. The operation commander of the IRGC, General Quasem Soleimani, recently reported to Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei:
Cont. reading: Syria – This U.S. Occupation – Or “Presence” – Is Unsustainable
Google Does Evil
Up to about 2006 or 2007 Google provided an excellent search engine. It then started to prioritize and present more general results even where one searched for very specific information. It became cumbersome to search for and find details. The situation has since further deteriorated.
The Google News search is now completely useless. It delivers the main stream media trash without showing divergent views or opinions. What is the use of a search result page that links to twenty sites with the same slightly rewritten Associated Press story?
Google's algorithms now amount to censorship. Since August it downgrades websites that offer alternative views to the left of the pack. Searches that earlier led to the World Socialist Web Site or to Media Matters no longer show these sites, or show them way down the result pages. Traffic to these sites collapsed.
This week Google announced that it will censor RT.com, the website of the international Russian TV station: Google will ‘de-rank’ RT articles to make them harder to find – Eric Schmidt. Schmidt, the CEO of Google and its parent company Alphabet, claims that he is "very strongly not in favor of censorship.” That is a laughable. Intentional downgrading a website that has relevant content IS censorship. Down-ranking means that less people will find and come to the site. Its content will have less viewers. It will be censored out of the public perception.
The original Google algorithm used the number of links to one site as a measure for its relevance. It was reasonable. In 2004 Google's founder proclaimed:
“Our search results are the best we know how to produce. They are unbiased and objective, and we do not accept payment for them or for inclusion or more frequent updating … We believe it is important for everyone to have access to the best information and research, not only to the information people pay for you to see.”
Back then the motto of Google was "Don't be evil". When its new parent company Alphabet was launched that motto was discarded.
Google has become a prime cooperator and contractor for U.S. intelligence services. The private data it collects from it users is fed the dark-site's databases.
But its new evilness is not restricted to data. The company ran a campaign against homeless people near its headquarter in Venice California (video). Google conspired with other tech-giants to keep the wages of its engineers down.
Cont. reading: Google Does Evil
Russia In Syria – Military ‘Failure’ Sets Off Intense Diplomacy
Western media predicted that the Russian military campaign in Syria would end in `failure`. That – presumably – has been achieved (not). Now follows a push of diplomatic efforts to settle the war.
In September 2015 the "west" prepared for an open military aggression on Syria. The purported aim was to fight ISIS and to stop the migrant flow into Europe. The real aim was "regime change". Russia stepped in by sending its cavalry to Syria:
The U.S., Britain, France and others announced to enter Syrian skies to "fight the terror" of the Islamic State. Russia will use the same claim to justify its presence and its air operations flying from Latakia. Simply by being there it will make sure that others will not be able to use their capabilities for more nefarious means. Additional intelligence from Russian air assets will also be helpful for Syrian ground operations.
The Obama administration was surprised by the Russian (and Iranian) intervention. It had no sensible means to counter it. The administration and the U.S. commentariat tried to hide this impotence by predicting that the Russian campaign would fail.
Obama himself led the pack:
“An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won’t work,” Mr. Obama said during a news conference at the White House on Friday …
As reminder, and for your amusement, an incomplete list of the then published "Russia fails" nonsense:
Cont. reading: Russia In Syria – Military ‘Failure’ Sets Off Intense Diplomacy
The Saudi System And Why Its Change May Fail
The Saudi clown prince Mohammad Bin Salman is an impulsive tyrant. But what accounts for his urge to purge the country of any potential competing power center Why does he run a such an activist foreign policy? The answer might be Iran. Not Iran the country, but Iran the system.
Since the U.S. war on Iraq the sclerotic Saudi Arabia continuously lost standing in its region. The Iranian model gained ground. A decade later the authoritarian Arab systems were challenged by the so called "Arab spring". While the movements in the various countries -as far as they were genuine- have failed, they were a warning sign for things to come.
Saudi Arabia reacted to the challenges by moving away from a sedate, consensual run family business towards a centrally controlled, supercharged tyranny. The move allows for more flexible and faster reactions to any future challenge. But it also increases the chance of making mistakes. To understand why this endeavor is likely to fail one needs look at the traditional economic and social system that is the fabric of the country. The fate of the Hariri dynasty is an example for it.
Since Salman climbed the throne he has moved to eliminate all competition to his rule. The religious establishment was purged of any opposition. Its police arm was reigned in. First crown prince Murqrin was removed and then crown prince Nayef. They were replaced with Salman's inexperienced son. Economic and military powers were concentrated in his hands. During the recent night of the long knives powerful family members and business people were detained. The Wall Street Journal reports of a second arrest wave. More higher ups have been incarcerated. This round includes senior military commanders and very wealthy business people.
As the prison for the arrested VIPs, the Ritz-Carlton hotel, is fully booked, the next door Mariott is now put to use. Qualified staff was hired to handle the prisoners:
As many as 17 people detained in the anti-corruption campaign have required medical treatment for abuse by their captors, according to a doctor from the nearest hospital and an American official tracking the situation.
…
The former Egyptian security chief, Habib el-Adli, said by one of his advisers and a former Egyptian interior minister to be advising Prince Mohammed, earned a reputation for brutality and torture under President Hosni Mubarak.
After the torture reports spread due to employees of local hospitals, a medical unit was established in the Ritz itself.
Cont. reading: The Saudi System And Why Its Change May Fail
Weekly Review And Open Thread 2017-42
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
Nov 13 – Yemen – Having Lost The War Saudis Try Genocide – Media Complicit
No progress has been made towards lifting or breaking the total Saudi blockade. There are new rumors of an imminent attack of Saudi proxy forces on the capital Sanaa. All earlier attacks failed miserably.
Nov 14 – Revealed – Saudis Plan To Give Up Palestine – For War On Iran
Has anyone seen other English language sites pick up the Al-Akhbar report? I continue to believe that it is true and important to understand the ongoing issues.
Nov 15 – The Non-Coup Coup In Zimbabwe
A new tick-tock report of the preparations and execution of the non-coup coup is here. China and South Africa were informed and had agreed to an unbloody internal regime change. The U.S. was in the known but not involved. Action was planned for mid December when Mugabe was expected to lift his former mistress "Gucci" Grace into the leading position. It was pushed forward when Mugabe fired his (coup plotting) vice-president.
An unofficial account of the leading party in Zimbabwe tweeted today:
ZANU PF @zanu_pf – 3:49 AM – 19 Nov 2017
We have recalled president Mugabe, he is no longer the president of ZANU PF. May he leave with grace.
Nov 16 – Syria Summary: The Idlib Battle Comes Into Sight
At noon local time today the last ISIS held city, Abu Kamal (aka Albu Kamal, AlBoukamal) in east-Syria, was declared liberated. Remaining ISIS fighters fled northwards across the Euphrates into areas controlled by the U.S. proxy force SDF. They will be relabeled and reused. An unimpeded road drive between Beirut in Lebanon and Tehran in Iran is again possible.
Nov 17 – NATO Adds To Turkey's Chagrin
Erdogan aligned media assert now that the subject of the troublesome NATO exercise in Norway was an attack on Turkey. The issue stays hot.
Nov 18 – Is Satire "Fakenews"? – How Fact-Checkers Peddle Snake-Oil
A fitting New Yorker cartoon on the issue:
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Please use the comments as open thread …
Is Satire “Fakenews”? – How Fact-Checkers Peddle Snake-Oil
Since the issues of alleged "fake news" and "Russian influence" have cropped up, several media institutions highlight their public fact-checkers. Social media companies hire them to filter "fake news" from their content.
Traditional fact-checkers within a newsroom considered the veracity of the pieces their own reporters wrote up. They corrected factual mistakes before those were printed or aired. The new crop of fact-checker is testing the veracity of claims made by other media outlets and public entities.
The Tampa Bay Times's PolitiFact is one of the oldest and biggest of these organizations. It was founded in 2007 and has offices in several states. Like all such entities it has a certain political flavor. Thus the supposedly neutral fact-checking site PolitiFact gets fact check by a site named PolitiFact Bias.
Last week Amy Sherman wrote an important piece for PolitiFact. Facebook users had pointed her to this month old report about a military court case:
FORT BRAGG, N.C. — Bowe Bergdahl, the Army sergeant facing charges of desertion, walked out of a military courtroom during a pre-trial hearing Monday and has not been seen since approximately 10:35 AM, prompting a statewide manhunt for the missing soldier.
Sources inside the courtroom say that Bergdahl took only a half-full Camelbak and a long hunting knife with him as he calmly made his way to the exit during his own lawyer’s remarks to the judge regarding a possible plea deal.
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Pentagon leadership is offering an unusual reward for information on Bergdahl’s whereabouts: $25,000 or seven Guantanamo detainees, depending on the credibility of the information.
The fact-checker applied the best of her abilities to debunk the assertions of the above piece:
"Bowe Bergdahl wanders off during court-martial," said the October headline in Duffel Blog.
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Facebook users flagged the post as being potentially fabricated, as part of the social network’s efforts to combat fake news. This story is fake.
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We rate this headline Pants on Fire.
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Multiple news outlets including the AP reported that Bergdahl entered a plea of guilty during the Oct. 16 hearing at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. He didn’t wander off during his hearing.
"I understand that leaving was against the law," Bergdahl testified.
(Liar Liar) "Pants on Fire" is the worst rating on PolitiFact's truthiness scale.
But something is wrong with "fact-checking" when such rating is applied to satirical content. For those brain-dead folks who do not recognize satire in the hilarious screwiness of its content the Duffel Blog's About page provides it in very clear words:
Cont. reading: Is Satire “Fakenews”? – How Fact-Checkers Peddle Snake-Oil
NATO Adds To Turkey’s Chagrin
There has long been speculation about a Turkish good-bye to NATO.
The U.S. and its military proxy organization in Europe are doing their best to further such a move:
The image of Atatürk was displayed as a target during the drill at NATO’s Joint Warfare Center in Stavanger, Norway held between Nov. 8 and Nov. 17, while a NATO soldier posted defamatory words about Erdoğan on the social media.
Atatürk is the founder of the secular Turkey. He was designated as "target" during a desk-top drill. NATO's Joint Warfare Center is not a low level school but an elite officer training institution led by a Major-General. The 40 Turkish soldiers who attended the training course were immediately ordered back home.
Secularists in Turkey have long suspected NATO as promoting "moderate Islamists". That belief is not without factual ground. U.S. President Obama allied with the Muslim Brotherhood during the so called "Arab Spring". But the second incident at the very same NATO institution points to a more comprehensive anti-Turkish position:
A Kurdish-origin Norwegian officer signed up to a social networking website within NATO, using a fake account in the name of President Erdoğan and sharing posts against the organization.
To vilify the Turkish secularist hero Atatürk and its Islamist President Erdogan in related occasions is a comprehensive move against the whole country.
NATO's political spokesperson Jens Stoltenberg, a Norwegian politician, apologized for the incidents. It will soothe no one.
A comparable incident happened in 2006. U.S. Lt. Colonel Ralph Peters published a map with redrawn borders of Middle East in the Armed Forces Journal. The map showed a "Free Kurdistan" and Turkey cut to half its size.
The map was then presented by an American colonel at the NATO’s Defense College in Rome while Turkish officers were attending. An uproar ensued and the U.S. had to apologize.
In July 2016 parts of the Turkish military attempted a coup against Erdogan. Turkish jets which attacked the capitol Ankara had launched from the U.S. and NATO base in Incirlik. When the attempt failed several NATO countries granted asylum to Turkish officers who did not want to return to their home country.
After the failed coup Turkey decided to buy Russian air defense systems. The move makes sense. The alternative U.S. systems are suspected to be ineffective against attacking U.S. planes and missiles. The Russian S-400 systems is designed to counter threats from U.S. weapons.
Turkey is a partner in the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program. It has plans to purchase one hundred of them. Now the U.S. Air Force suggests that the deal could be restricted:
Cont. reading: NATO Adds To Turkey’s Chagrin
Syria Summary: The Idlib Battle Comes Into Sight
There have been few significant movements during the last weeks. The war on Syria slowly grinds towards its end. The political tussle continues as ever. U.S. Secretary of Defense Mattis made a curious announcement of plans he can not fulfill.
General Situation on November 3 – bigger
Our last Syria summary looked at the situation around the last refuge area of the Islamic State near the Syrian-Iraqi border:
The twin-cities of Abu Kamal (al-Bukamal) in Syria and al-Qaim in Iraq are ISIS' last urban refuge. The cities are on the south site of the Euphrates with the important border crossing between them. Coming from the east Iraqi government troops retook the al-Qaim crossing today. They now control the border and are breaking into the city proper. Syrian government forces approach Abu Kamal from the north-west and from south-east.
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The U.S. proxy forces north of the Euphrates announced that they had taken several oil-fields north of the river and were also progressing towards Abu Kamal. The Syrian government and its allies fear that the U.S. [is trying to take] Abu Kamal itself. It could then claim to have control over the border crossing towards Iraq and severe that important line of communication. A race is on to prevent that.
Situation on November 10 – Abu Kamal is at the bottom right of the map – bigger
For a few days it seemed that Syrian government forces were easily winning the race. Coming through Iraq, troops moved deep into Abu Kamal and found it empty. They prematurely declared victory but had been deceived. ISIS used tunnels to move undetected into well prepared positions and attacked them from the rear. The Syrian forces were badly mauled and had to retreat.
Since then more troops have arrived and are now ready to launch an all out attack. Coming from Russia long range bombers hit ISIS positions. The U.S. is trying to make such support more difficult by claiming an "air corridor" over the city:
Cont. reading: Syria Summary: The Idlib Battle Comes Into Sight
The Non-Coup Coup In Zimbabwe
Yesterday's coup in Zimbabwe is of global interest. The country is one of the few that have long resisted the colonial "western" attempts to control its mineral and agricultural riches. Such coups are often driven by the CIA or other "services". But there is no evidence yet that this is the case here. Local rivalry is for now the more plausible explanation.
Since 1980, when Zimbabwe gained independence from Britain, the country is ruled by Robert Mugabe. He has run an anti-colonial and socialist policy. Unfortunately his economic policies, together with "western" sanctions and currency manipulations, have devastated the country's economy. In 2000 Mugabe ousted some 4,000 white farmers who had owned and ran large estates. In a sweeping land reform the farms were split into plots and redistributed to local people. Agricultural productivity tanked and has since not fully recovered. A deep economic crisis with high unemployment ensued.
Mugabe is now 93 years old and apparently frail. There has long been infighting over his succession. Mugabe's wife "Gucci" Grace Mugabe and her children are well known for being exceptional corrupt and prodigal when it comes to their personal amenities. On November 5 Grace Mugabe asked her husband to be named as his successor.
On November 6 then Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, a 73-year-old lawyer and veteran of the liberation wars, was ousted after a conflict with Grace Mugabe. Mnangagwa allegedly planned [long backgrounder] to form a unity government with the opposition and to bring back some of the white farmers. It is claimed that he has British backing but that the U.S. and the EU oppose him.
The ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party is split in its loyalties to these two persons. The G40 "youth-wing" is following Grace Mugabe while the old guards of the party despise her.
Yesterday the military moved into the capital Harare. At 4am this morning Major-General Sibusiso Moyo appeared on TV and announced that it has taken control. It denies that coup has taken place. In a statement the military "guaranteed" Mugabe's safety and said that it was only targeting "criminals" around him. Mugabe and his family have been put under house arrest. There has been so far no fighting and no visible public opposition to the "non-coup coup". Traffic and life in the capitol appears to be normal (vid).
According to the African editor of the partly Soros funded IRINnews:
Obi Anyadike @Enugu62 5:02 AM – 15 Nov 2017
This is all to do with stopping Grace Mugabe from taking over. The assumption is the military will keep Robert Mugabe on ice. Purge those around him. Bring back ex-VP Emmerson Mnangagwa from South Africa. And have him anointed at the ZANU-PF congress in December.
Your host has not followed the developments in Zimbabwe diligently enough to reliably predict the consequences of this development. Please use the comments to add your knowledge to the above wrap-up.
Revealed – Saudis Plan To Give Up Palestine – For War On Iran
The tyrants of Saudi Arabia developed a plan that sells away Palestine. They see this as necessary to get U.S. support for their fanatic campaign against their perceived enemy Iran.
An internal Saudi memorandum, leaked to the Lebanese paper Al-Akhbar, reveals its major elements. (Note: The genuineness of the memo has not been confirmed. In theory it could be a "plant" by some other party. But Al-Akhbar has so far an excellent record of publishing genuine leaks and I trust its editors' judgement.)
According to the memo the Saudis are ready to give up on the Palestinian right of return. They forfeit Palestinian sovereignty over Jerusalem and no longer insist of the status of a full state for the Palestinians. In return they ask for a U.S.-Saudi-Israeli (military) alliance against their perceived enemy on the eastern side of the Persian Gulf.
Negotiations on the issue were held between the Saudis and the Zionist under the aegis of the United States. Netanyahu and Trump’s "shared personal assistant, wunderkind Jared Kushner", is the point men in these negotiations. He made at least three trips to Saudi Arabia this year, the last one very recently.
The Saudi operations over the last month, against the internal opposition to the Salman clan as well as against Hizbullah in Lebanon, have to be seen in the context and as preparation of the larger plan. To recap:
- Last week the current front-man of the Palestinians, Mahmoud Abbas, was ordered to Riyadh. There he was told to accept whatever will be presented as U.S. peace plan or to resign. He was urged to cut all Palestinian ties with Iran and Hizbullah:
Since the warnings, which could threaten the new Palestinian unity agreement signed by Fatah and the Iranian-backed Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Palestinian media displayed a rare degree of unity in recent days by coming out against Iran.
- On November 6 a letter by the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahoo to Israeli embassies was intentionally "leaked". In it Netanyahoo urges his diplomats to press for full support for the Saudi plans in Lebanon, Yemen and beyond. On the same day Trump tweeted:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – 3:03 PM – 6 Nov 2017
I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing….
(The tweet was heavily promoted by Saudi Twitter bots.)
- The Saudi tyrant abducted the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, and declared war on the country. The purpose of this move is to remove or isolate Hizbullah, the Shia resistance of Lebanon which is allied with Iran and opposes the Saudi plans for Palestine.
- On November 11 the New York Times reported on the U.S. drafting of a "peace plan" but provided little detail. The chance for such a plan to succeed was described as low.
The left-wing Lebanese paper Al-Akhbar has obtained a copy of the plan (Arabic) in form of a memorandum by the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir to the Saudi clown prince Mohammed Bin Salman (English machine translation):
The document, which is being unveiled for the first time, proves all that has been leaked since President Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia last May on the launch of US efforts to sign a peace treaty between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This was followed by information on the exchange of visits between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, the most important being the visit of the Saudi Crown Prince to the Zionist entity.
The document reveals the size of concessions that Riyadh intends to present in the context of the liquidation of the Palestinian issue, and its concern to get in return the elements of power against Iran and the resistance, led by Hezbollah.
The Saudi foreign ministry memo starts by laying out its strategic perspective:
Cont. reading: Revealed – Saudis Plan To Give Up Palestine – For War On Iran
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