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A German Election Analysis
As your host is German you may want to read his opinion and analysis of today's federal election results in Germany.
German election results (ARD 6pm exit poll) Update: Preliminary official result:
- CDU/CSU – 33.0%
- SPD – 20.5%
- AfD – 12.6%
- FDP – 10.7%
- Left – 9.2%
- Greens – 8.9%
No great surprise there.
The participation rate slightly increased to 76.2%.
The result is bad for the top-candidates Merkel (CDU) and Schulz (SPD). The CDU lost 9 percentage points compared to the 2013 election, the SPD lost 5. These two parties once held a total of 81% of votes between them. They are now down to 53% of total votes.
Voter migration analysis will show that the CDU loss was caused by Merkel's centrist and socially liberal policies and especially her gigantic immigration ("refugees") mistake. It caused the right-wing CDU voters to go over to the new right-wing party AFD. Other CDU voters (re-)joined the FDP.
Her party will punish Merkel for this catastrophic result. I doubt that she has two or more years left in her position. Her party will shun her and move away from the center and back into its traditional moderate-right corner.
The voters lost by the formerly moderate-left, now also centrist, SPD went over to The Left and the FDP. Many also abstained.
The FDP is back in the game after having been kicked out of parliament is the 2013 elections. The Greens and the Left Party results are mostly unchanged.
Over the last 25 years both of the traditionally big parties, CDU and SPD, had moved from their moderate-right, respectively moderate-left positions towards a "centrist" neo-liberalism. In consequence The Left split off the SPD and now the AFD from the CDU.
The AFD is by no means a "Nazi" party though a few Nazis may hide under its mantle. The voters are mostly traditionalist, staunch conservatives and anti-globalization. They were earlier part of the CDU.
The SPD will not want to enter another government coalition with Merkel, It played Merkel's junior partner over the last eight years and that led to ever increasing voter losses. It nearly killed the party. The mistake of selecting the colorless Schulz as top-candidate will lead to some (necessary) blood loss in the party's leadership. SPD head Gabriel will, like Schulz, have to step back from leadership positions.
Merkel will have difficulties forming a coalition. She will avoid the AFD as her campaign had discriminated that party as "Nazi" (in itself a huge strategic mistake). She will try to build a coalition with the Green and the FDP. It will be enough to rule for a while but is a somewhat unstable configuration.
The new parliament will be more lively than the previous ones under the large CDU-SPD coalition. More parties and a real opposition will create more public discussions.
We will likely have new elections within the next two years.
To me it seems Germans like the idea of long serving figureheads taking care of all this annoying politics stuff, in particular older generations and rural voters. Almost as if they miss their kings and kaisers. If FJ Strauss could have lived forever, he’d be Bavarian governor for all eternity.
Since 1945, when the previous Fuehrer left the stage, Germans had 8 chancellors, in 72 years! Adenauer 14, Kohl 16 and now Merkel 16 yrs. Wolfgang Schäuble, German Minister of Finance since 2009, was already a minister under Helmut Kohl in 1984.
Unlike in the US, Germans have a dozen or so parties to choose from, but in the end its always the same two who they elect to form government, and like in the US, both those parties are on important matters as good as indistinguishable.
Anyhow, Giap’s comment earlier made me think of a Franz Josef Degenhardt song about Germany’s post-fascist Kleinbürgertum. Here is a rough translation.
Horsti Schmandhoff (Youtube)
You, the buddies from the same district full of soot
Of the same gray rows of houses and of the same cast
With the same lust for bright houses, lawns, chrome and gravel
For slender women, tiled bathrooms – Comrades, now that
Today you almost have it all and rather not look back
When you meet by chance, gathered round somewhere
Talking of new things and laughing at old jokes
And one of you asks: “Who knows what Horsti Schmandhoff does?”
Guys, then, then you remember: You once wanted to be exactly like Horsti Schmandhoff.
In his fashionable costume, always looking neat
He portrayed your dreams with concise gestures
Son of a waitress, Horsti, slender and blond
Nose, chin and mouth of someone aiming high
The day he came to the neighborhood, in the evening outside the house
Him playing in Lederhose, a white shirt, tunes on the accordion
“Bergmannsglück,” and “Glückauf tara?”
Blowing curls out of his face and looking up into the sky
Back then already, fellers – do you remember? You wanted to be like Horsti Schmandhoff.
And when he then as scout troop leader, on his hand a seal ring
His new steel knife in its honor sheath coolly dangling
With decent shoes, white sockies, his steps more like a dance
His bum wiggling while he marched with the troop standard
And shortly after coming back in uniform for special leave
A casual Panzer-cap, and the Cross of Honor on his chest
It showed & told how just before Stalingrad
He flattened 12 rocket launchers and 50 Ivan’s
Mate, be honest, you wanted to be exactly like Horsti Schmandhoff.
And as he stood in his khaki clothes, chewing gum in his mouth
With brush cut, helping the yanks, rosy, fat and round
At the corner near Strathmanns, a drag on his Lucky Strike
Greeting you with a ‘Hello Boys’ as you crawled through the streets
And then standing at the pub counter in a heavy leather coat
Hat pushed back, loose cravat, beer in his hand
Saying how 42 near Stalingrad he had kicked dirtbag General Paulus’ arse
Buddy there, be honest, you wanted to be exactly like Horsti Schmandhoff.
Even later, when instead of beer it was only wine he drank
Those green trendy suits wore and with trendy shoes to go
Smoothly strolling into the restaurant, dangling on his little finger
the car keys, and he then ‘hay Barbary ba’ sang
Eventually in a Jaguar cabriolet with cap, pipe, scarf
Girl sitting next to him, very blond and brown and slim
Cruising the suburb at walking speed, and just before Strathmanns
Briefly stepping on the gas, arm hanging out
Cobber there, be honest, you wanted to be exactly like Horsti Schmandhoff.
But then he disappeared, no one knew where he was and stayed
Until an illustrated magazine had a story about Ukalula
There, it was said, a white man was revered
He was a chief and the only adviser to the president
Standing there in the leopard fur with a lions tail in hand
Fists pressed against his hips and a bandana around his head
In the midst of thirty women, all naked, black and plump
A fat bellied Horsti Schmandhoff, with a brutal smile
Mate there, be honest, you wanted one more time be like Horsti Schmandhoff.
Posted by: Juan Moment | Sep 25 2017 22:16 utc | 81
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