News of the Day – Elections in Britain, Comey Testimony, Gulf Troubles

June 8, 2017

Big stories are coming up today but I will have no time to extensively post on them. A short take:

The Conservatives in Britain will likely win today's elections – at least according to recent polls. This even as the Labour Party, under its new leader Jeremy Corbyn, will achieve its best results since "New Labour" under Tony Blair wreaked the party.

The unnecessary loss for Labour can be solely blamed on the media, especially the "liberal" ones like the Guardian, who viciously defamed and fought against Corbyn ever since he was elected to lead the party.

—

In hearings at the U.S. Congress the former director of the FBI Comey will do his best to put a bad light on Trump. Trump fired him, later than he should have done, for good reasons:

After six months of investigation the FBI had no evidence for any of the rumors about Russian interference [in U.S. elections] that were thrown around. It should have closed the case with a clear recommendation not to prosecute the issue. […]

That Comey kept the case open was political interference from his side. Hearings and public rumors about the case blocked the political calendar.

The anti-Trump media (which means about 90% of all) will push the Comey testimony as evidence for malfeasance by Trump even though nothing of that kind will be in there.

—

Micah Zenko writes that there is a danger that the Trump administration will wage war somewhere against someone as a diversion from the pressure it is under within Washington DC:

The academic findings are mixed on whether heads of government facing domestic vulnerability engage in such diversionary wars — uses of force to divert public attention and rally support for their leadership. […] What seems clear, however, is that presidents are more likely to engage in such diversions when they are inherently distrustful and perceive the world in simplistic black-and-white terms — a perfect characterization of Trump.

The other potential outcome to consider for the Trump administration’s conduct of foreign policy is for an embattled president to become further and further detached while remaining in office. […] Since Trump has already bestowed “total authorization” to Secretary of Defense James Mattis, it is not unimaginable that the Pentagon chief could be notifying a president who has retreated to one of his properties of meaningful military decisions already underway.

Both cases are indeed possible – the second one seems more likely to me. War is also exactly what many of the people and lobbies who peddle the evidence-free "Russian hacking" stories want. Trump campaigned for détente with Russia. The "Russian election interference" campaign is designed to prevent that. The War on Russia or war on Iran are their favorite outcomes. Open war on Syria, North Korea or some yet developing crisis also have good chances to conquer the headlines.

Further leaks and scandals could increase the political pressure on Trump to such a degree that he resigns. But, while hoping or assuming this happens, it would be a grave mistake to ignore U.S. foreign-policy commitments and activities, and any shifts they might undergo under the influence of scandal.

A huge problem is the incompetence of the White House foreign policy shop and especially its National Security Council. To blame Iran for yesterday's ISIS attacks in Tehran is vile and scandalous. This will come back to hurt the U.S. To release a statement about a phone call with the "Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Zayet Al Nayhan of the United Arab Emirates" is blatant incompetence. A diligent reading of the names unveils that the "United Emirates" are a federation of emirates just as the "United States" are a federation of states. There is no kingdom of the UAE. There is some crown prince of the emirate of Abu Dhabi who has a bit of informal say within the UAE but there are also six other emirates with other crown princes and a federal UAE government structure in which the crown prince of Abu Dhabi only plays a minor role. The UAE structure is fragile. The federation could easily blow up over the current crisis with Qatar. The incompetent White House statement increases that chance.

Posted by b on June 8, 2017 at 08:48 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Current projection is that Tories+Unionists will have the majority, ca. 326 when 325 is 1/2 of the seats. The other projection is that Tories will succumb to their favorite pastime — not the fox hunting, not the foot fetish, but canibalism. Dish #1: Theresa May. So the formation of the government will not be that easy, unless ever servile Lib Dems will join. But no, there are vehement “Remain” party. But what if some remaining Remain fanatics lurk among the Tories, only to join Lib Dem?
That said, it is impossible to predict seat distribution without several seats projected wrongly. So we need to wait for the last district in Cornwall (is it Earth’s End?)

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 9 2017 3:14 utc | 101

The englanders still do voting the analog way with pencils and pieces of paper and that has traditionally meant urban constituencies and regional centers where the Labour Party is stronger gets their results in first. I have no doubt that Mr Corbyn has completely turned around his party’s political viability but these results cannot be just extrapolated as the rural seats that are generally safe tory gerrymanders are the slowest to get in their returns in.
Good to see the crooked daughter of a crooked bankster, current minister in charge of gwot, home secretary Amber Rudd seems to have lost her seat wee hah! It takes a particularly nasty style of human to be the minister in charge of police, MI5 and prisons and it looks as though the tarnish of that gig combined with the taint of being implicated in tax evasion hasn’t been well received by the people of Hastings which altho in Sussex is not that far down the road demographically from Canterbury

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 9 2017 3:16 utc | 102

@98 Precisely. Those safe seats were factored into the projections. Tories now lead btw.

Posted by: dh | Jun 9 2017 3:17 utc | 103

While Comey was entertaining the nation and the senate intelligence committee, the house republicans were deregulating the big banks again. Because that worked so well last time. Wtf, it’s been almost 10 years, let’s crash the world again.

Posted by: catlady | Jun 9 2017 3:21 utc | 104

@101 Ah yes Hastings. Where King Harold met his end. Looks like the dastardly Normans still have some work to do in Sussex.

Posted by: dh | Jun 9 2017 3:21 utc | 105

@103 catlady
it did work well, for the banks.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 3:41 utc | 106

Seats won · 553/6500 seats declared
256 39.4% Conservative Theresa May
233 35.8% Labour Jeremy Corbyn
33 5.1% Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon
10 1.5% Liberal Democrat Tim Farron
10 1.5% Democratic Unionist Party Arlene Foster
7 1.1% Sinn Féin Gerry Adams and Michelle O’Neill
3 0.5% Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood
1 0.2% Other parties
labour tightenting up again, fewer than 100 seats to go

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 3:42 utc | 107

@106
forgot the 5 zeros – greens, ukip, ulster unionists, social dem & labour, and alliance
that’s an interesting epiphenomenon in itself, isn’t it?

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 3:43 utc | 108

@106 You should switch to the BBC. Those Thai servers are notoriously sloppy.
http://www.bbc.com/news

Posted by: dh | Jun 9 2017 3:49 utc | 109

howard in nyc | 54
Cheers. Will check it out.

Posted by: AtaBrit | Jun 9 2017 3:56 utc | 110

@108 dh
the bbc has not 5 but 15 zero parties. and they push ‘forecast’, not the current count. i do imagine it looks better to a tory.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 3:58 utc | 111

110
Forecast is now down to Tory 316 which means 10 Unionists might help them but not if they lose one more seat.

Posted by: somebody | Jun 9 2017 4:00 utc | 112

Seats won · 600/650 seats declared
289 44.5% Conservative Theresa May
247 38% Labour Jeremy Corbyn
33 5.1% Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon
10 1.5% Liberal Democrat Tim Farron
10 1.5% Democratic Unionist Party Arlene Foster
7 1.1% Sinn Féin Gerry Adams and Michelle O’Neill
3 0.5% Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood
1 0.2% Other parties

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 4:02 utc | 113

Appears that SST will be going on without Col. Lang per his post tonight.

Posted by: Morongobill | Jun 9 2017 4:02 utc | 114

@110 BBC may be a devious bunch of shits but they know how to post election numbers. And I couldn’t care less who wins. I’m just amazed to see Anglo-Saxons putting up such a strong fight against the Normans after all these years. And don’t get me started on the Hapsburgs and the bloody Hohenzollerns.

Posted by: dh | Jun 9 2017 4:05 utc | 115

Amber Rudd managed to stuff enough ballots to keep the seat in the end. Unfortunately.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jun 9 2017 4:08 utc | 116

@114 dh
you mean you didn’t bet on the tories? i thought all the smart money did.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 4:09 utc | 117

@116 I did think they would win but If I’d mentioned it on MOA somebody would probably call me a fascist. And I have enough trouble managing my millions with the stockmarket being so volatile lately.

Posted by: dh | Jun 9 2017 4:13 utc | 118

Posted by: Morongobill | Jun 9, 2017 12:02:40 AM | 113
He has recently been appearing increasingly crotchety at many posters – including b. He is above all a patriotic (though not nationalistic) American and finds it difficult to handle criticism of the direction the US is going in general terms. And he hates to be proved wrong – witness his response to b’s correction of his statement about Qatari gas reserves.
Still it will be a great loss. That and MoA are my principle sources of what is really happening in the world.

Posted by: dynkyd | Jun 9 2017 4:14 utc | 119

@dh the story of 1066 is often distorted . Any saxon blood in my family comes via the vikings which incidentally is the original norman lineage as well.
However in fairness to Harold it needs to be pointed out that the reason he lost the battle of hastings is largely down to the fact he had just repelled a major Viking invasion ‘up north’ in the early summer of 1066.
Harold who was sold out by his own family had no sooner driven out the vikings where he sustained massive casualties than he had to turn his men around and march all the way back down south. a number of vital lieges dropped out with thousands of men claiming they needed to harvest their crops.
I see the sanctimonious twat is still burbling his garbage. It must be a sad life which needs to push its vicarious stickybeak into other people’s existence.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 9 2017 4:30 utc | 120

Posted by: dh | Jun 9, 2017 12:05:34 AM | 114
Anglo-Saxons vs Normans it may be, but more likely urban vs rural. See this map.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jun/08/live-uk-election-results-in-full-2017
The Guardian is finding ways to hint that Corbyn should not lead Labour by pointing out other elected Labour MPs with larger majorities (or total votes – whatever it takes). Since when was that a criterion for leadership? On that measure Ranil Jayawardena (I don’t think he’s Norman) should have been PM instead of May.
The Telegraph says that Labour has won “a handful of seats” from the Conservatives. I always suspected that tories were mutants. How many fingers do they have?

Posted by: dynkyd | Jun 9 2017 4:31 utc | 121

Posted by: dynkyd | Jun 9, 2017 12:14:01 AM | 118
(Pat Lang & sour grapes)
….
08 June 2017
17 million page views for SST and gone
I am leaving you. Guest authors, commenters and the various troll nations may continue if you wish. I may start another blog under “Pat Lang’s Blog” but there will not be comments. pl
Posted at 10:20 PM in Administration | Permalink | Comments (0)
It’s not as bad as I suspected.
That announcement tells me that the seat-of-the-pants assessment blunders will continue, but dissenting views will henceforth be neither welcome nor tolerated. It’s hardly surprising that he gets pissed off with b’s conservative, sober, researched and cross-checked assessments. Pat loves going out on a limb based on nothing more than whimsy and intuition. But he’s always entertaining and I really enjoy his swashbuckling style of writing.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 9 2017 4:45 utc | 122

Posted by: dh | Jun 9, 2017 12:13:43 AM | 117
It was a huge political miscalculation by Theresa May.
Overall turnout was not that large. Outcomes nowadays depends on who votes and who stays at home in disgust.
I wonder if conservative remainers did just that.

Posted by: somebody | Jun 9 2017 5:04 utc | 123

122)
So that is the end of Brexit?

Posted by: somebody | Jun 9 2017 5:14 utc | 124

I’ll believe it when I see it. One way or another i believe the Dark Forces will not permit it.

Posted by: Pft | Jun 9 2017 5:24 utc | 125

Seats won · 639/650 seats declared
310 47.7% Conservative Theresa May
260 40% Labour Jeremy Corbyn
34 5.2% Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon
12 1.8% Liberal Democrat Tim Farron
10 1.5% Democratic Unionist Party Arlene Foster
7 1.1% Sinn Féin Gerry Adams and Michelle O’Neill
4 0.6% Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood
1 0.2% Green Party Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley
1 0.2%Other parties
11 seats undecided, if the tories get 5 and labour get 6 they be very nearly on the exit poll, won’t they, Cons 314 Lab 266.
if the tories get all 11 they’re still short. that’s the important point. see what happens from here.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 5:35 utc | 126

Hung parliaments tough it what, 18 months or so on average?

Posted by: Lozion | Jun 9 2017 5:57 utc | 127

@119 My understanding is that Harold’s team lost at Hastings because they broke ranks and chased a bunch of Bretons into a swamp which gave William’s cavalry an opening. As regards all the ethnic stuff there probably isn’t anyone in the UK without some Viking/Norman blood in their veins……(I’ll exclude recent migrants from that sweeping statement).
@120 Rural versus urban voters could be a big factor. I know a lot of middle class English people don’t care for city life anymore.

Posted by: dh | Jun 9 2017 6:23 utc | 128

Posted by: Lozion | Jun 9, 2017 1:57:45 AM | 126
People hate it when politicians make them vote and vote and vote …
MPs are supposed to be sent off and go to work :-))
Looks like Conservatives plus Ulster Unionists will have a slim majority but Ulster Unionists are conflicted on Brexit. It opens a terrible lot of citizenship and border questions with Ireland remaining in the EU.

Posted by: somebody | Jun 9 2017 6:26 utc | 129

@113 “Appears that SST will be going on without Col. Lang per his post tonight.”
Pat Lang will thoroughly enjoy muttering to himself without any fear of contradiction.
It will reinforce his conviction that his conclusions are never, ever wrong.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 9 2017 6:44 utc | 130

113
Good riddance. If sst could exist without its white supremacist stink it would make it a nicer spot.

Posted by: Mina | Jun 9 2017 6:50 utc | 131

It is gonna be tough to see this parliament making 12 let alone 18 months. Apparently Mr Corbyn has already set up a ‘situation room’ at Labour HQ where he, Seumas Milne, manifesto architect Andrew Fisher, and Labour Party Secretary Iain McNicol are planning their next moves.
needless to say there is no sign of deputy party leader Tom Watson at the strategy meeting. Watson distinguished himself during the 2016 leadership spill then election which he and his fellow careerists called despite Mr Corbyn having only just won the general membership vote. Watson was the fat fuck who went around the TV channels describing Mr Corbyn’s supporters as ‘trotskyist loons’, dead enders etc.
Watson and a number of other ersatz tories who once dominated the opposition front bench such as Hillary Benn, Liz Kendall, Chukka Umana and Yvette Cooper (who was on the beeb tonight damning Mr Corbyn with faint praise) will continue to try and make trouble. All of the former are in Peter Mandelson’s pocket.
Mandelson now in the house of lords is the chief puppet of the zionist lobby in the labour party and he has been heard to tell the msm that the biggest issue confronting labour is getting rid of Mr Corbyn.
Jeremy can relax a little because following the last leadership contest a mob of the younger (parliamentary life) labour MP’s who had previously been lured into the neoliberal camp have had a rethink.
Now that he has so emphatically put the stamp of the wider electorate rather than just party members on his leadership, manifesto and popularity many more of the careerists will hop across to his side, but he is still going to have Benn & co snipping at him.
This could be a moment for Mr Corbyn to find his inner asshole and purge them, but I suspect he will eschew that preferring to concentrate on kicking terri’s twat.
Perhaps John McDonnell can earn his keep devising and implementing a quiet campaign to clean the parliamentary party of pernicious neoliberals.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 9 2017 6:50 utc | 132

@118 dynkyd.. i agree.. pat is kind of an insecure old man on some level.. his latest post seems like a little hissy fit to me.. b pisses him off.. that is fairly obvious.. it is the rah rah america is great that blocks his clarity and b is just the one to prick a hole in that bubble.. there are others too, but he takes it more painfully when b articulates more objectively on us foreign policy matters.. that is how i see it anyway..
@129 yeah, right.. i agree with your view as well… hard for the old guy to admit when he is wrong! however, i think he has it in him.. he just doesn’t like to show it!
good call tee… i was with you on that in my post @36 or thereabouts as well.. looks like t may doesn’t have what she wanted here..

Posted by: james | Jun 9 2017 6:54 utc | 133

127
Things have changed. Poor people get thrown out of the cities because the state does not want to afford the high rent there and class does no longer decide the vote.
From before the elections

In electoral terms, age is the new class. The starkest way to show this is to note that Labour is 19% ahead when it comes to 18-24 year-olds and the Conservatives are ahead by 49% among the over 65s. Our analysis suggest that the current tipping point – which is to say the age where voters are more likely to favour the Conservatives over Labour – is 34.
In fact, for every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around 8% and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by 6%. This age divide could create further problems for Labour on 8 June. Age is also a big driver of turnout, with older people being far more likely to vote than young people. It’s currently too early to tell the exact impact this could have on the final result.

So, it is poor people without a job and old people no longer working who can afford to live in the countryside where there aren’t any jobs.

Posted by: somebody | Jun 9 2017 6:57 utc | 134

@ Mina #113
Here here!
I have never understood the attraction of Lang’s site. Humanists who claim to detest the amerikan empire sitting at the feet of one of the chief engineers (well according to Lang) of the Chile and Nicaragua travesties.
Most amerikans never shake that George Washington “I can never tell a lie” Thomas Jefferson “all men are equal – well all white men ‘scuse me while I whip some niggers” indoctrination. but many do try and suppress it – not so Lang and his disciples.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 9 2017 7:03 utc | 135

@128 sb
the ulster unionists have 0 seats, so far, don’t they? there are 4 seats undecided as of now. 315 + 0 + 4 = 319, not 326, right?

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 7:26 utc | 136

The fact is that Lang is just getting old (with the usual corollary of getting cantankerous). I should think he is stopping because he can’t be bothered with the daily grind of running a blog any more.
For those of us who are interested in the Middle East, he does have a lot of good value to say. For an American, he knows the Middle East pretty well (yes, most Americans’ knowledge of the ME is woeful). His judgement on Syria has played out well, though he is slightly too optimistic for the govt side. You have to bear in mind his military background for the kind of things he says, and the kind of guest analysts who write there. Like any blog you get out of it what’s useful to you. Just being abusive like the comments just above aren’t useful. You go there for certain kinds of analysis, in this case military analysis.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jun 9 2017 7:27 utc | 137

Laguerre 136
Similar to my take on the site. I see Pat Lang has being trying to say the US has done good things in the past for selfless motives and quoted Vietnam as one. I would guess he would have a hard time living with his past if he faced up to the reality of what the US is.

Posted by: Peter AU | Jun 9 2017 7:43 utc | 138

My favourite btl from an englander just woken up to the election news is from someone travelling under the handle of OdessaBeachbum, who notes”

“The only way the Tories can form a government is with the support of the DUP , a party which contains some of the great minds of the 17th century. A very disturbing vista.”

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 9 2017 7:50 utc | 139

135
Sorry “Democratic Unionist Party”, they got 10. Same stuff.
BBC now counts 316 for Conservatives with 647 seats counted.
May refuses to step down. I will stop watching it now as it will get boring.

Posted by: somebody | Jun 9 2017 7:54 utc | 140

Here is a list of gracious and selfless motivated acts and interventions of/by the USA:
The Trump Doctrine – CBS News & WSJ
turcopolier zei…
b
I am sure you will choose to interpret anything we have done to be selfish and evil actions, but:
1. What was the selfish motivation for the US Declaration of war in WW1? We were already producing at maximum industrial capacity supporting the war against the Axis Powers. We had very little reserve industrial capacity, and could not build our own tanks, airplanes or artillery.
2. What was the evil motive for our entry into WW2 Japan attacked us in the midst of negotiations over supplies of scrap metal, rubber and oil and Germany foolishly honored its treaty obligation to the Japanese and declared war on us.
3. The US fostered creation of the European Coal and Steel community after WW2 In so doing we created competitors for ourselves.
4. How did the Marshall Plan benefit the US rather than the Europeans? More competitors in manufacturing and trade.
5. What was the selfish US motive for joining the UN operation in Korea in 1950? Did we desire a dependable supply of kimche or did we wish to control the Korean patrimony of agriculture that extensively employed human excrement for fertilizer? Was American agriculture failing at that point?
6. the same thing is true of Vietnam. We wanted their rubber plantations? They all had French owners and we never interfered with their ownership. Maybe we wanted a dependable supply of nuoo mam?
I am curious to know if you think the formation of NATO in the late 40’s was a selfish American grab for power. In other words do you think the USSR was not a threat to Western Europe/ pl
Antwoorden 06 June 2017 at 01:17 PM
Babak Makkinejad zei in antwoord op turcopolier…
Also Somalia – under GHWB
Comment by turcopolier on “Turkey has aligned with Qatar”
b You have not responded to my list of America’s selfless actions on the world scene. pl
turcopolier
Posted by: turcopolier | 08 June 2017 at 02:41 PM
well well, well amazing grace

Posted by: c | Jun 9 2017 8:02 utc | 141

A) There are reports on AKP media that Pakistan has agreed to send 20,000 troops to Qatar in agreement with Turkey.
If so, this would be a very significant stand against Saudi Arabia – especially as Pakistan refused Saudi requests to support it in Yemen.
It’s also a sign of Turkey’s future role in the ME and beyond …
(Haven’t found an english language version yet.)
http://www.yeniakit.com.tr/haber/pakistandan-katara-asker-karari-343065.html
B) As Corbyn says
“People have said they have had quite enough of austerity politics, they have had quite enough of cuts in public expenditure, underfunding our health service, underfunding our schools and our education service and not giving our young people the chance they deserve in our society.”
🙂 (dont know how to do a grinning cheshire cat emoticon!!)

Posted by: AtaBrit | Jun 9 2017 8:06 utc | 142

@130 What about non-white supremacists? do they get a pass or something? Is it a moral imperative that USA and Europe turn into Brazil/Paris?

Posted by: aaaa | Jun 9 2017 8:21 utc | 143

@141 atabrit
A. if that’s true i think it has more to do with the shift of power in the me to iran … and qatar, kuwait and whomever else breaks away from the ksa … than with turkey. turkey is the one to join together with on the military front, as they already have ‘something’ going in qatar and pakistan does not, to my knowledge. pakistan needs gas. the split in the gcc is between those with oil and those with gas. if anything, pakistan would counter turkey’s military might in the region, wouldn’t it? well, ‘balance’ it, is more diplomatic.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 8:24 utc | 144

English version from Azerbaijan
I think it is unlikely. Or Qatar offered serious money.

Posted by: somebody | Jun 9 2017 8:30 utc | 145

@somebody 144
Cheers.
It seems a stretch doesn’t it? Don’t usually give.much credence to the ramblings of Akit …But when you consider how decimated the Turkish forces are now since the managed coup and subsequent arrests, dismissals etc;, how overstretched their forces are in various bogeyman terrorist wars and that Turkey has agreed land, sea, and air and training support,to Qatar the idea that Turkey would need to bring im subs becomes more understandable.
We’ll see.

Posted by: AtaBrit | Jun 9 2017 8:41 utc | 146

327 + 323 = 650
317 tories
10 dup
===================
327 majority of 2 votes
261 labour
35 snp
12 libdem
7 sinn fein
4 plaid cymru
1 green party
1 other parties
2 not yet decided
====================
323 not enough, 3 votes short … unless the dup are closet labourites

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 8:44 utc | 147

@ JFL
Amongst the five eyes, the US intelligence community seem to hold the balance of power.
Elections seem a bit meaningless until the US dollar is destroyed. But who knows, perhaps Corbyn could change things a bit. Another straw on the camels back.

Posted by: Peter AU | Jun 9 2017 8:54 utc | 148

The Qatar Crisis: A Diplomatic Curveball for Pakistan

Last year Pakistan signed a 15-year gas supply agreement with Qatar. Islamabad would import 3.75 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually and add 2,000 megawatts of power to the national grid. Not only was the agreement with Qatargas-2 – the largest LNG producer globally – going to singlehandedly almost halve the country’s electricity shortfall and amount for over 85 percent of Pakistan’s LNG import capacity, it also diversifies Pakistan’s energy mix.
In addition, it was only last month that Qatar formally expressed interest in $1.5 billion Karachi-Lahore LNG pipeline project to supply gas to Punjab. Doha was set to ward off Moscow’s interest in the project after the deal was verbally agreed with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani during his visit to Pakistan in January this year.
In terms of security, Saudi Arabia earmarking another enemy in the region would mean additional demand for Pakistani troops. At a time when the state is still far from shoring up its defense against local jihadist groups, adding another conflict to be militarily involved in would smack of skewed priorities, and further underscore Riyadh’s clout over Islamabad.
Furthermore, with the Islamic Military Alliance already self-manifesting as a sham, a fellow member state being sidelined would reaffirm the coalition as an assimilation of al-Saud’s personal security force – especially with another member state, Yemen, being relentlessly bombed.
Pakistan, which is already surrounded by a hostile neighborhood accusing it of harboring terrorism and in turn threatening attacks inside its territory, can ill-afford the rupture of ties with another state in the Middle East. The conundrum would multiply for Pakistan if, in addition to Iran, Qatar draws closer to Turkey as it looks for outlets to bridge the economic gap that severing ties with the Gulf neighbors would cause. Ankara has supported Islamabad on multiple fronts in recent times.

who knows. very complex. seems sure that big changes are coming to regional ‘alliances’ as a result of the rump’s tour of the saudi glowing orb china shop. curiously it looks like the neocons never thought of these other possibilities? must b that rookie, kushner.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 9:03 utc | 149

@147 peter au, ‘Another straw on the camels back’
yes, certainly. but there’s no sense in letting the straws blow away. i think the collapse of dollar hegemony will be the occasion of the sea change, but it may as easily work to worsen as to better our situation. we’ll need to have strong organization throughout the world at the local level, certainly, in the us, to prevent hard-core fascism from filling the vacuum. i mean real popular organization, none of this top-down, political party, ‘leadership’ stuff. i don’t see that happening yet.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 9:10 utc | 150

A video purporting to be made by 5 of the terorists in Iran calling on all pro-ISIS Iranians to start terror attacks.
https://twitter.com/TheDaneChris/status/872948460999389185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.almasdarnews.com%2Farticle%2Fvideo-five-isis-terrorists-conducted-tehran-attacks-confess-camera%2F
In the video recorded before the attacks, the leader of the jihadist terror group stated the incident would be the first ISIS attack in Iran but not be the last. Speaking in Farsi, he called on supporters of ISIS to create unrest in Iran by conducting similar attacks in the name jihad on behalf of the Islamic State. ‘Real Muslims’ in Iran should rise up against the government to punish it for its actions in Syria, Mosul and Yemen.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 9 2017 9:13 utc | 151

Next up FRANCE!!!
How on Earth is this two stage electoral process going to play out with so many parties jostling for seats???

Posted by: Julian | Jun 9 2017 9:30 utc | 152

@151 julian
i wondered there too. how could en marche! the one-man party of emmanual micron get a majority in the legislature? surely real parties, like mélenchon’s and le pen’s would take the seats? but diana johnstone explains how it can be done, thanks to ben for the link … all that’s required is a public that just keeps sleep-walking. … as in fact they did in britain, in england anyway, where a lot of people voted tory. micron’s candidates will be ‘attractive’ walk-ons, just following orders.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 9:45 utc | 153

jfl 149
Destruction of the US dollar, and all that goes with it is the pill – for us in the US “west/world”- that we have to take if we want to see a change for the better.

Posted by: Peter AU | Jun 9 2017 10:31 utc | 154

@153 p au
it certainly seems to be the only way to end the new american century and the decade and a half of death, devastation, and destruction it spawned.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 9 2017 10:39 utc | 155

@ Peter AU | Jun 9, 2017 6:31:06 AM | 153
If you go and destroy the $US, you are either going to have to revert back to a gold standard economy, (much good luck with that, it was abandoned for the reason it was beyond its capacity to function early on in the twentieth century), or you are going to have to relearn economics from the foundation up. From all report, the educational system will be put beyond its capacity to provide; up crocodile creek without paddle is the image that comes to mind.

Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Jun 9 2017 10:50 utc | 156

@jfl | 148
very interesting find. begs the question of both Turkey and Pakistan how much of this is posturing and how much will turn into real action?
so far the only thing headed to Qatar from Turkey is food … though consultants are on their way imminently, apparently.

Posted by: AtaBrit | Jun 9 2017 10:57 utc | 157

Formerly T-Bear “it was abandoned for the reason it was beyond its capacity to function early on in the twentieth century”
It was abandoned cause the US didn’t have much/enough.
Gold, art, jewelry/gems will always be currency in tough times.
It will be difficult for many to adjust to a real world, rather than an artificial world with artificial currency.

Posted by: Peter AU | Jun 9 2017 11:17 utc | 158

@ 157 Peter AU
Sometime between 1880 and 1890, the U.S. had become the world’s largest economy, and largely self contained at that, outstripping even the British empire (should empire be capitalised?). You might inquire as to how much gold the U.S. had in storage from the end of the Great War and the Great Depression, and during the 1920’s the government was buying nearly everything available. The dollar value of that gold hoard sharply increased when FDR reset gold’s monetary value from $20. to $35. an oz. and took gold out of its historical currency function in the U.S. But that is history now and long past living memory for current generations. Yes, barter can work, those things you mention will be the first items to either lose value or be lifted and most likely to endanger their possessor’s wellbeing.

Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Jun 9 2017 11:37 utc | 159

Peter AU – 157
Actually, all currencies are artificial, at the end of the day. There’s no objective basis to measure the real value of anything, it’s mostly a consensus between the people. That was the case when we used gold already, it’s just that it’s blatantly obvious now that we rely on non-existing currency like credit card. The key difference is that we can now create as much money as we want, since it has no physical basis or representation – the logical consequence being that crises can be bigger or happen more often than in the past.
Concerning the UK, Sinn Fein doesn’t recognize it, so they’re elected but tend to boycott Westminster. So the practical majority would be 322 for Tories / May, which they’ll get with the Unionists’ support. Heck, since she’ll need their support, she might get even more extreme on some issues…
The Labour blairites should accept defeat, though, or they deserve to be wholly purged by Corbyn. Sure, he didn’t win, but he’s come way closer than expected – specially by his treacherous fellow fake Labour liberals. The guy just boosted his party’s votes by +30%. No sane person would think it’s justified to oust him “because he’s too extreme and unelectable”. Well, they’re welcome to try, actually.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jun 9 2017 11:38 utc | 160

DUP are the ultimate nasty party fundamentalist protestants who supplied some of the most sociopathic torturers and murderers to the UVF during the troubles.
I haven’t followed the belfast political machinations for a decade or more so have no idea why all the proddies swung behind them this time – the most likely answer is prolly that the two major ‘unionist’* parties finally got sprung for their corrupt neoliberal dealings.
The DUP hates gays, catholics and ‘gypsies’ in equal measure Some may remember the failed EU deal about 5 years ago whereby a few Romany families trying to escape racial harassment in Romania were shifted to Northern Ireland within weeks the families fled back to Romania saying things were bad back home but nothing like Belfast where their kids were bashed by adults as they walked to school apartments were hit by molotov cocktails and every night gangs of brainless inbred proddies stood outside their homes chanting death threats.
The DUP are a really nice bunch and considering how May tried to tar Mr Corbyn with the terrorist brush for campaigning in favour of peace talks during the troubles, it really stretches her credibility to hear she has gone into a coalition deal with yer actual bomb throwing murdering assholes.
She may have the numbers but the “make June the end of May” crowd will be attracting a fair swathe of Tory MPs once the reality of whatever deal has been made begins to be enacted. de-legalising marriage, banning abortion or whatever, just won’t sit with some of the wetter tories.
Who knows maybe they will do something so egregious Sinn Fein have to sit in the Parliament – there is another 10 or so for Mr Corbyn right there.
Not that Jezza will be pushing too hard right now it makes more sense to wait a little until May’s wheel fall off completely the have another election by which time some of the worst neolib stirrers in the PLP can be ‘de-selected’.
*unionist does not mean they are all good comrades in the brotherhood of bomb-throwers and rapists local 61, it means they like the Union Jack and all the imperialist claptrap that goes with it.
Anyone who has seen trainspotting 2 will have bumped into the Scots version of the orange men. In Scotland they have been relegated to a few fat old fucks singing in celebration of a 300 year old battle. In N Ireland they still have a working political structure.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 9 2017 11:38 utc | 161

re anonymous 150
In that video, the jihadis are not speaking in Farsi, but in Arabic. That is the whole point. They are Arabs from Khuzistan, who are susceptible to being “radicalised” by the Saudis, because of the trouble they have with the Tehran govt. One is even wearing an Arab kuffiya; Iranians don’t do that.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jun 9 2017 11:44 utc | 162

Don’t really know what to make of this
Al Jazeera

12:15pm – Saudi-led bloc list ‘arbitrary’
The UK-based Arab Organisation for Human Rights (AOHR) called the Saudi bloc’s list “arbitrary”, saying it “was clearly made up arbitrarily, to serve political agendas, without relying on any evidence or an impartial judicial authority”.
AOHR also said: “The exact legal definition and crime of ‘terrorism’ needs to be determined by a neutral judicial authority, which is not available in these countries [Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain].”
The independent group also warned that the list violated clear laws against defamation, as the reputation of individuals and charitable organisations is put at risk.

Arab Organisation for Human Rights
Gulf Spring? :-))

Posted by: somebody | Jun 9 2017 11:47 utc | 163

With 46.9m registered voters in around 65m population it results in around 36% abstention and under 50% of the population having their say.

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Jun 9 2017 11:52 utc | 164

See May strikes deal with DUP to form UK government
She is off to see brenda at the palace
but there will be blood:

Conservative MPs are very, very angry at what they see as a totally avoidable loss of their majority.
Even if it is tenable for May to stick around for now, a leadership race for the medium term has in effect already kicked off. And demands are being made for the prime minister to sack her two chiefs of staff, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy.

The best story so far:

John Prescott, the former deputy leader of Labour, tweeted that he had heard from a “very good source” that Murdoch had “stormed out” of the Times election party after seeing the exit poll on Thursday night, which predicted that the Conservatives would fail to win a majority.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 9 2017 11:54 utc | 165

@ #163
yeah the absolute gall of those children not getting off their fat lazy arses and voting 24% of the UK population is 18 or less

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jun 9 2017 12:11 utc | 166

French 2 tours
the way it works is tv will tell the 75+ what to votes. They enjoy a short walk on sunday and usually stay where they are registered
1 tour seems more honnest actually

Posted by: mina | Jun 9 2017 12:59 utc | 167

@Laguerre 137 and Peter AU 138, and others
Yep, me too. Col. Lang/SST has (had) an informed perspective on the middle east, and excellent analysis of military operations and affairs. There were rare occasions when Lang and b were in agreement, when that happened I knew I could take that viewpoint to the bank. Just like anywhere online, or in life, (even here on this comments board) there is stuff I find objectionable or disagreeable, but just take what I need and leave the rest.

Posted by: howard in nyc | Jun 9 2017 13:37 utc | 168

Like some others, for me, the most important with SST/Col. Pat Lang are the bits where he talks from his own experience, and where he turns out to be in the right – whether I see it at once or when I’m not sure and future events show he was correct. When it seems clear to me he’s quite a bit wrong or that he’s influenced by some quite understandable inner bias, I don’t hold that much against him, I read his say being aware of this and I don’t care more than that (for instance, he eventually was convinced Trump would lost, late in the 2016 campaign, but his reasoning seemed still a bit too pessimistic to me and I stuck to my “too close to call” position). To put it bluntly, if most of what he said was bullshit, lies and wishful thinking, I wouldn’t bother reading him at all; unlike the mainstream media though, he is knowledgeable in some key areas and can be right against the bulk of them, so there is some value, and I focus on this – known personal bias, I can filter out (though I can also add in my own bias, in this process, which is another issue and a constant risk when reading comments online.
Meanwhile, SAA seems to have some tricky fellows. Apparently, they just bypassed Al-Tanf by 60 km North and North-East and reached the Iraqi border. Sure, it’s a big salient in the middle of the desert. But it also implies that operation had been underway for the last few days, and they stayed quiet about it. Heck, one can even wonder if they didn’t willingly provoke the US the last couple of days, to divert their attention on the NW road, and took advantage of that diversion to cut off the FSA/US special forces pocket from ISIS and the Euphrates Valley.
https://i.redd.it/pqoj0w004n2z.jpg

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jun 9 2017 15:48 utc | 169

@169 clueless joe… yeah, i see it much the same.. i have enjoyed reading pat lang and appreciate his insights and the fact he offers the blog for us to read and sometimes participate…

Posted by: james | Jun 9 2017 17:01 utc | 170

@ #166
Of course, you can always delve deeper and find out that the ruling minority is representative of about 25% of potential electors (excluding the ~25m under aged), which actually does not look so bad by western standards.

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Jun 10 2017 0:48 utc | 171

@137 “The fact is that Lang is just getting old ”
When I first started reading SST it was obvious that Lang did not suffer fools. So if anyone posted a comment that disagreed with The Good Colonel then the answer was gruff: I am right, and you clearly don’t know what you are talking about.
But I noticed for at least a year, if not more, that the retorts were getting both gruff and rude: I am right, and you are a troll.
It is the difference between having a high opinion of yourself and being a blinkered, obnoxious old coot.
Lang slipped from the former to the latter quite some time ago.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 10 2017 1:35 utc | 172

Keep God protect London and All Countries.

Posted by: Indenting | Jun 15 2017 7:51 utc | 173

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