Big stories are coming up today but I will have no time to extensively post on them. A short take:
The Conservatives in Britain will likely win today's elections – at least according to recent polls. This even as the Labour Party, under its new leader Jeremy Corbyn, will achieve its best results since "New Labour" under Tony Blair wreaked the party.
The unnecessary loss for Labour can be solely blamed on the media, especially the "liberal" ones like the Guardian, who viciously defamed and fought against Corbyn ever since he was elected to lead the party.
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In hearings at the U.S. Congress the former director of the FBI Comey will do his best to put a bad light on Trump. Trump fired him, later than he should have done, for good reasons:
After six months of investigation the FBI had no evidence for any of the rumors about Russian interference [in U.S. elections] that were thrown around. It should have closed the case with a clear recommendation not to prosecute the issue. […]
That Comey kept the case open was political interference from his side. Hearings and public rumors about the case blocked the political calendar.
The anti-Trump media (which means about 90% of all) will push the Comey testimony as evidence for malfeasance by Trump even though nothing of that kind will be in there.
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Micah Zenko writes that there is a danger that the Trump administration will wage war somewhere against someone as a diversion from the pressure it is under within Washington DC:
The academic findings are mixed on whether heads of government facing domestic vulnerability engage in such diversionary wars — uses of force to divert public attention and rally support for their leadership. […] What seems clear, however, is that presidents are more likely to engage in such diversions when they are inherently distrustful and perceive the world in simplistic black-and-white terms — a perfect characterization of Trump.
The other potential outcome to consider for the Trump administration’s conduct of foreign policy is for an embattled president to become further and further detached while remaining in office. […] Since Trump has already bestowed “total authorization” to Secretary of Defense James Mattis, it is not unimaginable that the Pentagon chief could be notifying a president who has retreated to one of his properties of meaningful military decisions already underway.
Both cases are indeed possible – the second one seems more likely to me. War is also exactly what many of the people and lobbies who peddle the evidence-free "Russian hacking" stories want. Trump campaigned for détente with Russia. The "Russian election interference" campaign is designed to prevent that. The War on Russia or war on Iran are their favorite outcomes. Open war on Syria, North Korea or some yet developing crisis also have good chances to conquer the headlines.
Further leaks and scandals could increase the political pressure on Trump to such a degree that he resigns. But, while hoping or assuming this happens, it would be a grave mistake to ignore U.S. foreign-policy commitments and activities, and any shifts they might undergo under the influence of scandal.
A huge problem is the incompetence of the White House foreign policy shop and especially its National Security Council. To blame Iran for yesterday's ISIS attacks in Tehran is vile and scandalous. This will come back to hurt the U.S. To release a statement about a phone call with the "Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Zayet Al Nayhan of the United Arab Emirates" is blatant incompetence. A diligent reading of the names unveils that the "United Emirates" are a federation of emirates just as the "United States" are a federation of states. There is no kingdom of the UAE. There is some crown prince of the emirate of Abu Dhabi who has a bit of informal say within the UAE but there are also six other emirates with other crown princes and a federal UAE government structure in which the crown prince of Abu Dhabi only plays a minor role. The UAE structure is fragile. The federation could easily blow up over the current crisis with Qatar. The incompetent White House statement increases that chance.