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Syria Summary – A New Russian Proposal And A Battle For The South
Russia is extremely active in search of a diplomatic way forward in the Syria conflict. Last month talks were held in Russia with the Syrian foreign minister and the Iranian foreign minister. New plans were discussed and agreed upon.
A few days ago Russia's foreign minister had talks with the U.S. Secretary of State. This week a visit of Merkel to Putin followed. On the same day Putin had a phone-call with Trump. A new round of the Astana piece talks under Russian sponsorship with the Syrian opposition and a Syrian government delegation is ongoing. (Unlike before the U.S. dispatched a high State Department official to this round.) Today Putin met with the Turkish president Erdogan.
Russia is offering a proposal for "de-escalation zones":
According to the documents obtained by Sputnik, Russia proposed to set up four security zones — in the Idlib province, to the north of the city of Homs, in Eastern Ghouta and in the south of the country.
The rough draft offers:
- – de-escalation zones aimed to "put an immediate end to the violence" and "to provide conditions for safe, voluntary return of refugees"
- – security zones or buffers created around the de-escalation zones with checkpoints and monitoring centers manned by Syrian government troops and "rebels"
- – military units from unspecified "observer countries" could be deployed to these security zones
- – Turkey, Iran and Russia are named as as guarantors and will create a joint working group immediately after the de-escalation is agreed upon between the Syrian parties.
The crux with the proposal is of course al-Qaeda which rules in Idleb and is also an important power in the other areas. Russia offers the de-escalation zones as a way to further negotiations and settlement only under the condition that al-Qaeda is eliminated from the zones. In the press conference with Erdogan Putin emphasized this position:
"About terrorists, in spite of creation of these zones the war on terror will be ongoing – against such organizations as so-called Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra and those ones that are put on the list of terrorist organizations approved by the United Nations," Putin said.
But by now the "rebels" are to a large part associated with Jabhat al-Nusra aka al-Qaeda. The al-Qaeda terrorist hardcore is the backbone of their army. The U.S. sees al-Qaeda, at least temporarily, as a valuable proxy. They will surely not agree to give up on that.
The draft proposal is another attempt to get Turkey and the U.S. to finally admit that there is an al-Qaeda problem, that a UN designated terrorist organization is at the core of these areas, and that no peace can be achieved unless al-Qaeda and the associated elements are eliminated. I doubt very much that Turkey and the various sponsors of al-Qaeda in Syria will agree to that plan. The Russian government surely knows this but it sees an advantage in dragging the problem into the open whenever possible.
Map via ISW – bigger
Meanwhile military operations continues throughout Syria. Turkey shelled Syrian-Kurdish areas in the north-east and in the north-west. It is pressing the U.S. to shun the Kurds as partner in the fight with ISIS and offers Turkish troops as replacement. But the U.S. does not agree with that plan. It sent a platoon of Ranger Regiment 75 up to the Kurdish held Syrian-Turkish border in the east to stop the Turkish shelling. Likewise Russia sent a platoon to the border in the western area around Afrin. That was a clear (coordinated?) message to Erdogan from the two big powers involved in the conflict.
Russia deployed airborne warning and control aircraft to Syria. These can detect enemy fighter approaches over 600 kilometer range and direct friendly aircraft against such targets.
In the east the Kurdish troops under the control of U.S. "advisors" have retrieved the city of Tabqa from the Islamic State. The Tabqa Euphrates dam right north of to city is still held by ISIS but will be the next target on the way to Raqqa. So far no further U.S. troops have arrived. There are rumors of a U.S. group concentrating in east Jordan ready to move up through the Syrian desert towards Raqqa. This would split Syria in half and establish an embattled eastern U.S. proxy enclave. I assume that this move has been held back for political reason but could proceed in any moment.
ISIS is also under pressure in the area around Palmyra where the Syrian army is recovering oil-fields and pushing ISIS further east.
ISIS responded to its defeat near Raqqa by dispatching five suicide bombers to Rajm al-Salibi, near Shaddadi, in Hassakeh province next to the Syrian-Iraqi border. This is deep in the Kurdish held areas. The bombers exploded next to Kurdish security forces barracks at a displaced persons camp. Some 30 people were killed. Another suicide bomb went off in "rebel" held areas near the western border with Turkey. The local "rebel" office for civilian services in Azaz was blown up and at least five people were killed.
Near Damascus renewed infighting is ongoing within the "rebel"-held east-Ghouta enclave (map). The "Islamic Army" under Mohammad Alloush is trying to create a monopoly of force in the area presumably to then negotiate some agreement with the Syrian government. Jaish al-Islam attacked the significant al-Qaeda contingent in the area. Over 120 fighters on the various "rebel" sides have been killed so far. The area is surrounded by the Syrian army which enjoys watching the fight.
The U.S., Jordan and Israel have a plan to install a southern "no fly zone" which means to occupy the south-western part of Syria. To achieve that they need to capture the city of Daraa which is the main administrative center for the area.
bigger
Daraa city is at the southern point of the government held area. It is under attack from US. controlled "rebel" forces but the Syrian army has held its area. The situation is dangerous for Damascus city. Israel could now march from the west through "rebel" held areas right to the doors of Damascus without any problem. To eliminate that danger Hizbullah has launched a large operation from the north along the Syrian-Israeli border towards the Quneitra area. At the same time forces move from around Damascus to evict "rebels" from the area. This could easily become a major battle involving "rebels", Israeli and Jordanian forces on one side against Hizbullah and the Syrian army on the other.
Russia would clearly prefer to find a political solution instead of continuing or escalating the war. This even if it means to give up control over some parts of Syria. For the moment the U.S. seems ready to listen and may even agree to some deal. But there are still way to many spoilers on the ground (and their sponsors) who will do their best to disrupt any ceasefire or de-escalation attempts.
Pat Lang has long been urging for a big Syrian army attack on Idleb governate and city to eliminate al-Qaeda from the area. But the Syrian and Russian governments know that such a fight, with the too small forces they have, would bog down as long as the "rebels" and al-Qaeda get resupplied through the Turkish border. Their aim in the ongoing negotiations is to move the U.S. and Turkey into some agreement that would stop such supplies to those terrorists. Only when that happens can Idleb and all of Syria be freed.
@ Posted by: james | May 3, 2017 3:25:29 PM | 14
@ Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 3, 2017 4:15:32 PM | 18
@ Posted by: jfl | May 3, 2017 4:38:14 PM | 20
The Syrian Alliance has, in fact, never sought to defend everything, demonstrably quite the opposite.
He who would defend everything, defends nothing. – Sun Tzu
Lesser grade and local militia/regionally ‘bound’ troops (willing & determined to fight for their homes/families/tribes/communities and with the intimate local knowledge/support to make a difference) have been left to secure & defend less crucial areas whilst the ‘fist’ of the most capable SAA/Alliance forces have been routinely deployed, rested/recuperated/re-inforced & re-deployed again, in carefully planned modest campaigns where it is determined that the greatest result can be achieved for the least losses/strategic risk.
Determined Force Protection combined with dominant Force Projection surgically applied at the ‘local’ level.
All concurrent with a sustained & determined ongoing program of properly training, equipping and seeding via veteran ‘cadres’ the less experienced/capable SAA units as well as freshly raised units. This long disciplined strategy of brutally ruthless application of ‘military necessity’, in conjunction with periodic RF/SAAF sustained close-air support Ops upon concentrated & exposed moderate & immoderate head-choppers ‘drawn’ out & into the ‘fight’, open battle, and/or serially trapped in mini-cauldrons and annihilated whilst concurrently destroying logistics & materiel they brought forward in large quantities in order to, ‘campaign’. This is the only viable strategy given the FOREIGN proxy forces arrayed from ever shifting exposed borders and multiple fluid combat zones, from without Syria …
Hoarse, wonder what happened to all the catchy propaganda pics & footage of the mighty ‘airborne/air-landing’ assault Ops by the SDF & US advisors ? Carefully framed nifty shoulder patches & Ospreys ! Didn’t they capture an ISIS dam(not) and Raqqa was to imminently fall, was it not ?! All the Arruga! & Ooh-Ahh!!! re the mighty proxies reminiscent of ‘Grenada ’83’ ? Hm ? Reminded me very much of holding up a mirror to ‘Baghdad Bob’ 😉
The Jihadis are ever shifting mishmash of pseudo light infantry forces with ‘Technicals’ in support, intermittently supported by elements of ad-hoc armor & arty. They are little more than fragmented diverse superior militia(IMV) without actual air defenses nor support. When they are drawn into open battle they are attrited severely, all whilst the SAA & allied forces gradually concurrently improve in quality, quantity and invaluable combat experience & morale/esprit de corps as approximate professional conventional forces. Through careful husbanding, force protection, whilst culling the jihadis over time is how the Syrian Alliance got to where they are, again & again … winning … IMHO. the darwinism of the Syrian battlefield has been working in its favor, not against it, under such circumstances, IMV.
This is not the 19th century re conventional army Corps in formation on single defined ‘Fronts’ fighting other formed up army Corps over territory to declare a ‘win’ re seizing terrain, the vital ground, nor seeking an ultimate single conclusive decisive battle of annihilation of the enemies army/main force. There is no ‘Front’. Syrian Alliance previously conceded territory/borders to defend what ‘was’ possible in order to protect, conserve, sustain, rebuild & rebound. The ‘Manual of Arms & Drill’ of the 19th century does not apply, nor combined arms grand ‘maneuver warfare’, nor WWI/WWII campaigns or similar, IMHO.
The Syrian Alliance IS playing the long strategic game, no matter how humanly painful & difficult, out of necessity re preservation of the State. And it is the Long war that they are winning and will likely win, lacking a fundamental change in the status quo. Ie, the foreigners will tire & move on, negotiate an ‘Honorable'(?) withdrawal, or gradually be splintered & reduced re obtaining diminished external support/succor … for Syrian Alliance this is an existential fight for existence, not so for the foreign aggressors, via proxies, re Syria itself.
All Syrian Alliance has to do is husband, sustain & ‘Stay in the fight‘ over the long haul … to NOT lose, merely stay in the fight, is to WIN, IMV.
Would seem some never learnt the true lesson of the long running Chinese Civil War or Vietnam I & II … YMMV
Posted by: Outraged | May 3 2017 21:07 utc | 22
@ Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 4, 2017 2:21:19 PM | 60 & 66
You are either with us, or agin us!
Hm, ‘changing sides’ in retrospect lacked nuance … however, see above declarative quote from the alcohol-addled Bush jr. Direct military-military ties are sought to be maintained even with countries being ‘couped’, under sanctions, ‘targeted’, etc. Erdogan & Turkey cannot be half-NATO, or half in the Empire camp, such is not permitted. And, any leader/government who fails to comply by pulling too hard on the leash or ever dares take the collar off, is rabidly pursued, hounded to the end, see Whitlam – Australia for the former, Saddam – Iraq re the latter, et al, etc.
NATO is used to suborn the governments of the States that are members, just as any officers serving in NATO are actively targetted for recruitment, to be compromised/suborned, to serve the ‘higher’ goals of NATO (US Empire).
The widespread and active culling of Turkey officers in NATO clearly indicates a defensive, reactionary, immunization response from a counter-intelligence perspective.
Erdogan is likely an unstable meglomaniac, certainly erratic, however, one can never reconcile with the guys who ordered the ‘Hitmen’. An active coup authorization is a one-shot gamble, all or nothing try … no going back.
“You’ve been wrong from the beginning. No one cares what you think.”
Kennedy, beset by serious doubts on the wisdom of dumping Diem, had interrupted Harriman to say that he liked Nolting and wanted to hear his views.
“I have grave reservations about proceeding against Diem,” Nolting told the group. “Only Diem can hold this fragmented country together.” Nolting also said, “I think President Diem could be persuaded to remove Madame Nhu from the scene and at least to make brother Nhu less conspicuous.”
Hilsman countered, “The generals could put the Vice President of Vietnam in power and govern the country the way the generals have in Korea.” He admitted, however, that “we have little information on how the generals plan to run the country if they are successful.”
Harriman, who continued to maintain that the generals had not been a party to the pagoda raids, contended, “We had been winning the war with Diem because the generals were with him. The generals are defecting now because of the recent actions which Diem has taken against the Buddhists.”
Ball said, “We can’t win the war against the Communists with Diem in control. The U.S. position in the eyes of the world is being badly damaged.” It was too late, Ball maintained, to renege on support for the conspirators. “We are already beyond the point of no return,” he avowed.
“I do not believe we should take the position that we have to go ahead because we have gone so far already,” Kennedy responded. “If a coup is not in the cards, we could unload.” Kennedy was particularly troubled by the generals’ lack of enthusiasm and by a report that pro-Diem forces within the Saigon area outnumbered anti-Diem forces by a two-to-one margin. “At present, it does not look as if the coup forces could defeat Diem.”
The White House transmitted the President’s reservations to Lodge and asked him for more information.
– Moyar – Triumph Forsaken; the Vietnam War, 1954-1965 (2006)
Note: The above was from golden boy, JFK, and the only real consideration was likelihood of success and consequences of failure. Ultimately, subsequently, JFK ordered the coup activated re Diem an asset installed since ’54, and we all know how that worked out re the future stability of Sth Vietnam … note the reference to the CIA coup re Sth Korea replacing Syngman Rhee, an asset since ’45, via the April Revolution, leading to the coup with General Park Chung-hee, who was then assassinated via fumbled CIA/KCIA coup in ’79 …
Given a whole swathe of actions and events, including some interesting statements, considered as a whole … likely at least moved to the ‘non-aligned’ group, seeking an ‘independent’ agenda. That means an inevitable exit from NATO, even if merely unstated defacto … and further attempts to kill him, or merely take the government down along with him.
Am no fan of Erdo, entirely untrustworthy, don’t have to take sides to assess a range of events and actions to attempt to divine ‘intent’.
Maybe he and his followers are just jockeying for position re a better deal from the upcoming meeting with Trump on 16th, tho doubt it, as ‘vassals’ are NEVER truly forgiven for ‘pulling on the leash’ … Never … retribution and overt punishment as an object lesson, always follows …
Not a normally useable source, however, has a few key quotes from a few days ago … that add to the picture along with Karlof1 post above when looking at the timeline of events/actions/responses …
US troops seen patrolling Syria-Turkey border as Washington tries to stop Turkish air strikes on Kurds (UK Telegraph)
… “The patrols’ purpose is to discourage escalation and violence between two of our most trusted (counter-Isil) partners and reinforce the US commitment to both Turkey and the SDF in their fight against ISIS,” a statement from the US-led joint command said.
US troops on the ground were only a few miles from where the Turkish jets struck, and Washington was reportedly only given a 52-minute warning.
However Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did little to ease the tension on Sunday night, threatening a repeat.
“We can come unexpectedly in the night. We are not going to tip off the terror groups and the Turkish Armed Forces could come at any moment.”
Erdogan said the sight of American flags in the convoy alongside YPG insignia had “seriously saddened” Turkey … called for the coordination between the US and YPG to “come to an end.”
“This needs to be stopped right now. Otherwise it will continue to be a bother in the region and for us. It will also bother us as two Nato countries and strategic partners,” he said.
…
The International Crisis Group (ICG) said in its latest report on the Syria crisis that the US had “a singular dilemma” on the future of its relationship with the YPG.
It said the YPG “is indispensable” to defeat Isil but there is also “no avoiding the fact” that the US is backing a force “led by PKK-trained cadres in Syria while the PKK itself continues an insurgency against a Nato ally.”
It said that Turkey had pressed ahead with the air strikes despite US objections and this “should serve as a warning for what could lie in store.”
Posted by: Outraged | May 4 2017 22:30 utc | 69
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