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Turkish Airstrikes On Kurds Complicate U.S. Operations In Iraq And Syria
A few hour ago the Turkish airforce hit Kurdish and Yezidi positons on both sides of the Singal mountains in east-Syria and west-Iraq. Near Derik in east-Syria more than 20 bombs destroyed a YPG headquarter, a radio station and a media center. At least nine YPK fighters were killed. The YPG is the Syrian sister organization of the Kurdish PKK in Turkey. The PKK is a designated terrorist organization. Within Syria U.S. special forces are embedded with the YPG and are coordinating YPG moves against the Islamic State in Raqqa. YPK and PKK follow the anarcho-marxist theories of their leader Abdullah Öcalan who is in isolation detention in Turkey.
The Turkish airstrike in Iraq hit YPG and Peshmerga positions near Shingal where they protect a displaced person camp of Yezidis. The Yezidis are an ancient religious minority. The Peshmerga are the main Kurdish militia in Iraq. They are controlled by Kurdish regional government. At least five Peshmerga fighters, all followers of Barzani clan, were killed and several more wounded. The Barzani family holds all important position in Iraq's Kurdistan – president, premier, intelligence chief and several others. Its election mandate has long run out but it simply ignores the regional parliament and rules through force and bribes. The Barzani clan is allied with Turkey and the U.S. It allows the Turkish army to operate several bases within its area. The U.S. is operating from Erbil airport in the Iraqi-Kurdish area. The oil pumped from wells in the Kurdish area is sold by the Barzanis to Turkey. The Turkish hit on Barzani fighters is deeply embarrassing for them and may incite new protest against the Barzani' quasi dictatorship.
The YPK is training Yezidi self defense forces. This is against the Barzanis' interest who sees their monopoly force in the area endangered.
Turkey is a U.S. ally and the U.S. has several bases in Turkey which it uses to fight the Islamic State. The U.S. is also allied and operates with the YPG in Syria and the Peshmerga of the Barzani clan in Iraq. The airspace in east Syria and north-west Iraq supposedly under U.S. control. There will be some serious explaining to do why the U.S. did not prevent one of its allies from bombing its other allies. Did it agree to this Turkish attack? Either way U.S. operation in the area will experience new difficulties.
Turkey has also threatened to invade the Kurdish held areas in east-Syria at Tal Abjad to move onto Raqqa and thereby split the Kurdish held areas.
Map by Winep – bigger
The primary winner of these Turkish operations is the Islamic State.
The YPK is now likely to divert forces from the U.S. led attack on the Islamic State in Raqqa to protect against further Turkish adventures. The PKK within Turkey may restart its guerrilla campaign against the Turkish military. The Barzani clan will come under renewed pressure by Kurdish people in Iraq as well as by the Iraqi government to loosen its ties with Turkey. All sides will blame the U.S. and its operations against Syria and the Islamic State.
The whole mess in Syria and Iraq thus becomes even more complicate than it already was.
Please note, half of the ‘Fighter‘ group has been withdrawn.
The facilities and infrastructure are still in place. The actual airframes can be returned at very short notice indeed, along with ground support crews via accompanying transport aircraft, and be immediately operational, should a defined threat evolve.
In fact, the Evil Russkies have been doing such rapid ‘bug-outs’ and rapid ‘deployments’ on a cyclical basis throughout the Syrian Campaign. Priceless experiential development & training. After all, the RF is running the entire deployment utilizing its existing training budget. Further, dedicated ‘Fighter’ aircraft have had and so far continue to have, little utility in the Syria conflict. If as it would seem, there has been a significant reduction in US/Coalition air sorties since the suspension by RF of the De-confliction MOU, following the Tomahawk cruise missile strike that wasn’t, needed even less, now.
MOAns may recall a previous combat aircraft withdrawal the MSM jumped on and misrepresented … light & medium bombers were replaced with a smaller number of superior ‘dedicated ground attack’ aircraft, capable of sortie rates 3-4 times higher and far, far more effective in the close-support role. RF adjusts and changes its limited expeditionary Airframe mix as the situ develops & requires. Demonstrable record of operational agility & flexibility, & ‘sufficient’ application of combat force, as circumstances ‘on the ground’, evolve, IMV.
S400/S300 are still in place with integrated/overlapping AD systems at Tartus & Latakia. More AD systems/complexes on the way ? Have no doubt RF/Iran/Hezbollah is committed for the long haul. They have not knelt down yet, quite the opposite re a number of calibrated responses/escalations.
Further this talk of a ‘quagmire’ in Syria … even if the RF inserted additional ground forces, is mis-attributed. The Evil Russkies are the invited, they are welcome ‘fish’ amongst the ‘Sea’ of the Syrian populace and across denominations. The moderate & immoderate ‘head-Chopper’ terrorist Wahhabist proxies as well as their ‘foreign advisers’, and most certainly any potential uninvited conventional ground troops from other nations are not in any way in such a situation … This is not Afghanistan ’79-’89 redux, not at all. And there is no Syrian Civil War, as the Syrians are not fighting themselves, they are predominantly fighting ‘inserted’ mercenaries/terrorist proxies and other States, ‘Advisors’, so far.
Also the head-choppers cannot simply magically promptly transform from pseudo light infantry fighters with a hodgepodge of ‘Technicals’ & intermittent arty/armor elements in support, to a guerilla campaign, among the ‘sea’ … that requires dramatic operational/doctrinal/command/training changes as well as a period of significant preparation … out of the line …
As has been amply demonstrated and in any escalation re the ground war by 3rd party State actors SF & conventional forces, it will be the RF/SAA/Iran/Hezbollah elements that will continue to benefit from Syrian government/people, infrastructure & logistical support, and interior lines of supply/communication, as well as that of the actual Syrian populace, the ‘sea’, not the Jihadis and advisors, who do not benefit from any the former … especially as SAA continues geographic consolidation. The biggest issue is limited SAA manpower, open fractured borders & multiple combat fronts/zones, tho the latter has been progressively & will continue to be dramatically reduced, which offsets the former.
An actual deployment of boots on the ground by the Empire may ultimately just be a bridge too far in the E/NE, beyond any very limited short-term deployment … just sayin’, YMMV.
Posted by: Outraged | Apr 26 2017 17:34 utc | 68
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