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Goodbye Turkey
The wannbe Sultan of a new Ottoman Reich, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, let his people vote in a referendum about new extensive powers for his office.
Erdogan is the Turkish president since 2014. He has since continuously broken the constitution by wheeling partisan powers way beyond the neutral, only formally executive role the office of the president is supposed to have.
Yesterday's "yes"/"no" vote was allegedly won by the "yes" side with 51.4% of the votes. This even though the "no" vote won in all major cities. In Turkey the vote in the major cities usually reflects the total. The campaign for the vote was very unfair with all state media and offices pushing for a "yes". Opposition politicians were put to jail or threatened with retribution. Media opposing Erdogan were suppressed or completely closed down.
There is significant reasons to believe that the vote count was fraudulently manipulated. On the day of the vote the election commission, stuffed with Erdogan cronies, suddenly allowed ballots without the official stamp to be counted. According to Turkish election laws each ballot, and each envelope of a postal vote, needs to be officially stamped before voting starts. This is supposed to prevent ballot stuffing with ballots printed outside of the official channels. The election commission has given no reason yet why it thought that such a last minute rule change, in opposition to the law, was necessary or even legal. Use of unstamped ballots was reported out of many election localities in rural areas where the "yes" votes now were the majority. Additionally video was recorded of local election workers stamping ballots after they had been used for voting.
The opposition is protesting and will go to court. But it will likely have little success. Erdogan has removed all judges and other legal personal that could go against him. An amateurish coup attempt against him, which he knew about before it happened, was used by him to clean all public offices of people not aligned with his party and program.
The new powers of the presidency will only come into force after the next election for the presidency. But everyone expects that Erdogan will use them right away. With the issue of the referendum put aside Erdogan is now free to escalate interior and exterior conflicts. We can expect new Turkish operations in Syria as well as in Iraq to be launched soon.
In the 1990s I extensively traveled in Turkey – alone, by local buses and mostly in the east. The country was waking up and in an intellectual and commercial growing phase. During the last years a new wave of conservatism has stopped that move. My friends there report of stagnation.
Turkey does not have the economic and intellectual power to become a new Ottoman Reich. It will fail in new expansive endeavors. But the attempt alone will be destructive for Turkey as well as for the countries around it.
Turkey is no longer a democracy. It is now a one man dictatorship with an expansive and distinct Islamist agenda. To change that, should the Turkish people be inclined so, will require the removal of Erdogan through some act of force.
Sorry for veering off-topic, well, slightly off-topic, Turkey is a member of NATO is it not and treaty bound to respond to invocation of Article 5 by a NATO ally? Like the US for instance.
What would/ What will Erdogan do in this case?
The topic I want to raise again is of course North Korea.
US Deploys Two More Aircraft Carriers Toward Korean Peninsula: Yonhap
According to a report by South Korea’s primary news outlet, Yonhap, the Pentagon has directed a total of three US aircraft carriers toward the Korean Peninsula, citing a South Korean government source.
Yonhap reports that in addition to the CVN-70 Carl Vinson, which is expected to arrive off the South Korean coast on April 25, the CVN-76 Ronald Reagan – currently in home port in Yokosuka, Japan – and the CVN-68 Nimitz carrier group – currently undergoing final pre-deployment assessment, Composite Training Unit Exercise off Oregon – will enter the Sea of Japan next week. According to the senior government official. the US and South Korea are discussing joint drills, which will include the three aircraft carriers and other ships.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-17/us-deploys-two-more-aircraft-carriers-toward-korean-peninsula-yonhap
This certainly looks like the US pre-positioning for a strike on North Korea doesn’t it.
And if the US launches a pre-emptive strike on North Korea the North Koreans will of course have the right to respond militarily anyway they want (as is their inalienable right of course).
So how would they respond?
Well, their first response would probably be to target any US military assets in theatre that they could – starting of course with the Naval Carrier group (likely USS Carl Vinson) that made the strike.
So what would other targets entail? US Naval assets, US bases in South Korea & Japan, Guam, Hawaii?
Could North Korea really strike a significant blow against all these US military assets?
Well, of course not, they’d need help from their two big Northern neighbours wouldn’t they.
But how to get Russia & China involved – and on their side??!?!?
I’m sure the North Koreans have something up their sleeves – and thinking about it for five minutes gives a possible answer to how they would do it – “Occam’s Razor” – it’s fairly obvious.
North Korean subs located near the US carrier fleet would launch volleys of missiles against the Russians & Chinese surface ships shadowing the US Fleets.
This would force an immediate response to this aggression by the Russian/ Chinese.
Do you really think the Russians are in any position to pass up the opportunity to sink a US Carrier Battle group after being attacked by (apparently) US naval forces?
Afterall, there is every reason to believe the US would do this given their aggressive posture of late – this would be a great chance to give the US a bloody nose back by sinking some of their prized naval assets.
The missiles come from a submarine – and afterall, hasn’t Trump just boasted how powerful US submarines are? It must have been them firing these missiles at the Russian & Chinese ships.
So, if the North Koreans successfully managed to draw Russia & China in on their side with a “False Flag” attack like this – you then have the US invoking Article 5 against China, Russia & North Korea – and voila – WW3 just like that.
Surely this is the North Koreans most likely result? As well as lobbing missiles at all the South Korean and Japanese nuke plants of course. And attacking the 30,000 US forces in South Korea.
Global Submarine Fleets – By the Numbers.
1. North Korea (78 submarines)
2. United States (72)
3. China (69)
4. Russia (63)
5. Iran (31)
6. India (17)
http://www.therichest.com/rich-list/the-biggest/the-10-largest-submarine-fleets-in-the-world/
Certainly a lot of solid US allies there in the Top 6 aren’t there.
As well as “False Flagging” the Russians & Chinese I’d expect the North Koreans to send some missiles at any and all nuclear power plants in Japan, electricity plants, dams, and of course military bases – and the same in South Korea.
I wouldn’t expect them to specifically target Seoul? What would be the point of that but to draw international ire?
They’d go after South Korean bridges, nuclear power plants, dams, electricity power plants and of course military bases and assets wherever they could.
Another possibility that I haven’t seen mentioned many places is what if the North Koreans have positioned a dozen of their subs of the US West Coast?
What would be the Top 10 targets of North Korean subs on the US West Coast (I’m including the states of Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona – not sure if they could reach these two – but there are some juicy targets for a potential North Korean attack).
1. San Diego US Naval Headquarters
2. Pearl Harbor – Hawaii (Priceless PR for DPRK).
3. Golden Gate Bridge (San Francisco) – striking a symbolic blow against the US.
4. Columbia Generation Station (Nuclear) – Benton County, Washington.
5. Diablo Canyon (Nuclear) – Avila Beach, California.
6. Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Station (Nuclear) – Tonopah, Arizona.
7. Alphabet/ Google Headquarters – Menlo Park (Silicon Valley), California.
8. Apple Headquarters – Cupertino (Silicon Valley), California.
9. Facebook Headquarters – Menlo Park (Silicon Valley), California.
10. Amazon Headquarters – Seattle, Washington State.
Actually, it’d be interesting to see a list drawn up of perhaps the Top 100 targets North Korean subs could hit on the US West Coast – Electricity, Dams, Surveillance State (FAAA), Bridges, Bases etc.
And then of course if they can drag their northern neighbours into the conflagration – well, does it even matter at that point?
Posted by: Julian | Apr 18 2017 1:47 utc | 35
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