|
Syria Summary – The U.S. Move On Tabqa Will Complicate The Political Situation
Turkey is at a dead end in Syria. Erdogan's dream of going on to Raqqa and Deir Ezzor or even Aleppo city has been blocked by an agreement between the U.S. and Russia. His proxy forces are stuck north-east of Aleppo city and have no way to go further south, east or west. They conquered a piece of rural land that gives Erdogan no negotiation leverage but potentially a lot of headaches. A small Russian contingent has moved into the Kurdish enclave in north-west Syria around Afrin blocking any serious Turkish move against that area.
Turkey and its paymasters in Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have lost the fight over Syria. Still tacitly backed by the U.S. they are currently trying a Hail-Mary pass to again achieve some negotiation power for the next round of Geneva talks. This is likely to again fail. Their proxy forces in the north west, including al-Qaeda, moved from the north towards the city of Hama (see map, red=Syrian government). Over the last days they captured 11 small villages which were only lightly defended. The Russian and Syrian airforce are now devastating them and a counter-attack by the Syrian army is prepared and will soon throw them back.
Source: Islamic World News – bigger
Coordinated with the Hama attack was an attempt to capture ground on the eastern periphery of Damascus and in the south around Deraa. The Damascus attack has run its cause. No ground was taken and held by the Takfiris and the counterattack against them is advancing. The attack in Deraa failed to break the Syrian army defense lines.
The head of the "White Helmet" propaganda gang in south Deraa was killed in an IED attack by al-Qaeda aligned forces. He was no Samaritan. He also commanded the 18 March Division, part of the foreign paid insurgency against the Syrian state.
The large Syrian army move on Idleb governate to liberate it from the Takfiris is still in preparation. No date has been set for its launch.
East of Aleppo city the Syrian army had blocked all Turkish proxy advances. It continued south to retake the country side from the Islamic State and is making good progress. The biggest city in the area, Deir Hafar, was nearly surrounded today by the Syrian army when the Islamic State fighters suddenly moved out. It is now back in government hands. [The sources were wrong on this. Deir Hafar is effectively surrounded but not yet in government hands. – Mar 23 1110 pm] The Syrian army in the area will continue to move south and south-east towards Raqqa and Deir Ezzor.
The U.S. proxy force in north-east Syria, the Kurdish anarcho-marxists of the PKK/YPK, have advanced on Raqqa. Raqqa lies slightly north of the Euphrates. The only way south and west from Raqqa that was left open was across the Tabqa dam that dams up the Euphrates and creates the Assad lake.
Source: Syrian Generation – bigger
Yesterday the U.S. and its proxy forces started a surprise attack to take the dam (map). Helicopters transported YPG fighters to the south of the Euphrates and improvised ferries (vid) carried their heavy equipment across the lake. Apache helicopters and heavy U.S. artillery covered the move. They blocked the road between Raqqa towards Aleppo in the west and they are now moving towards Tabqa city directly south of the dam. At the same time a YPG/PPK force is moving from the north towards the dam. There is some fear that Islamic State fighters could blow up the dam but the first to drown in the following flood would be all Isis fighters and their families in Raqqa and beyond.
In areas further south and east there is some fighting between the Syrian army and ISIS groups around Palmyra and in Deir Ezzor. The situations there seem mostly stable with slight advances by the Syrian government forces.
Israel recently made some splash by bombing Syrian government forces near Palmyra. This was against certain parameters the Russian and Israeli governments had agreed upon. While Russia will not hinder Israeli attacks on Hizbullah weapon transports going to Lebanon it will interdict should Israel (again) hit any forces in Syria fighting ISIS or other Jihadis. Israel was warned off by a Syrian anti-air missile launch. Loud noise was made thereafter by the Netanyahoo government in Tel Aviv. But that is mere domestic grandstanding. Netanyahoo is under criminal investigation and is fighting for his political life.
It is still unclear how the Trump administration plans to proceed on Syria. The move south of the Euphrates may block the Syrian government forces from moving further east towards the enclave in Deir Ezzor which is still under siege by ISIS. But the Euphrates crossing may also be a purely military move without a political intent to simply to enable the taking of the Tabqa dam. As a military move it makes completely sense. If this is a political move it will complicate the already confusing situation.
@ Posted by: Judith | Mar 24, 2017 2:52:15 AM | 48 & 49
Thank you kindly for the insights. Had a post runup that paralleled key points, but dumped that, feeble in comparison.
Mercenaries indeed.
Kurdish Iraqi mercenaries injected into Syria. Reminds me of late Rome being ever more dependent upon various tribes of ‘Barbarians’ to do the fighting and dying, not because there were few Romans available to do the fighting, they simply weren’t prepared to sacrifice to do so (oversimplification ?). Were traded ‘land’ & limited privileges for service as ‘cannon fodder’ and were were regularly betrayed … the Peshmerga will be betrayed too, IMHO, just as we betrayed the Iraqi Shia in southern Iraq during the ceasefire post the First Gulf War ’90-91 … we incited & misled them & then stood by as Saddam’s Republican Guard slaughtered & butchered for six weeks … cannot see this ending well …
Which leads to Paveway IVs dark sarcastic humor which only crystallizes the many truths within …
Having reviewed various veterans & associated forums, the old warhorses are pumped with testosterone, hearing ‘Ride of the Valkyries’ trumpeting in their heads or hollywood cavalry bugles sounding ‘Charge!’ ?, perhaps, thrilled at the decisive valiant efforts of our Elite proxies, our mercenaries, the SDF, Kurds, the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga …
Lots of staged photos of these valiant mercs, etc, by Centcom Psyops staff. Press releases and briefing by spokesmen re the great and wonderful deeds … yet no mention or acknowledgement of a country called Syria. No mention of the Government of the Syrian people, nor of their national defense force, the SAA. It is as if these ‘Elite'(?) military acchievements against the demonic ISIS occurs in unpopulated ‘Indian’ country in some mythical empty wild west.
It would seem these over-hyped valiant deeds have occurred against an enemy(?), ISIS, which wasn’t there, and didn’t actually or even seriously fight, just as a strain of the ‘moderate-headchoppers’ (Turkish brand) melted away before the Turks advances previously … up to the point they met another, strain/brand of proxies … other than REAL ever so convenient multiple simultaneous co-ordinated attacks against SAA !
Which is distressing and nauseating all at once. For the US forces supporting this are at little risk, and realistically, a very minor expeditionary support force, only. So, even with $1Trillion USD in Defense budgets comprising US, NATO & Allies, we seize upon and trumpet these mythical Psyop deeds as if they were our own ?
With ~1.3 million active service under arms (US Only) along with its vast military materiel, our mighty Empire is so weak re it’s concealed geopolitical goals, it is incapable of fielding it’s own troops at risk of casualties, nor uniformed troops of our Allies/Vassals, nor even ‘Private contractors’ now, not even supposed ‘moderate’ Syrian Rebels against the faux fabricated foe ISIS. No, our mighty Empire injects Kurdish mercenaries from Iraq into Syria, with cash now & false promises re the future, which will inevitably, as they always have been, betrayed. Yet the conditioning & indoctrination is so strong, we cheer ?!
The Iraqi’s and the Syrians, as well as their governments will not see it that way, and what of the Syrian Kurds themselves, who appear to have at least partially re-aligned with the Syrian government/RU, etc ?
Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, subsequent re branded ‘moderate head-choppers’ and/or AQ/ISIS as SDF, nor ANY US ground forces will be tolerated in Syria without consequences, any BS faux ‘peacekeeping’/’refugee zones’ claims or not … there is no ‘Sea’, for these ‘fish’, to swim in.
Late stage Empire decline comes to mind … Trump/Mattis/Tillersons ’30 day’ decisive plan heh ? … No, the Empires Hubris will not countenance a simple withdrawal and shutdown of US/CIA/GCC/Allies machinations, there must be a jingoist ‘Win’ … distressing, nauseating & highly probably tragically futile, in the end. And for what ?
Peace. Salaam. Shalom.
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 24 2017 15:25 utc | 68
@ Posted by: Judith | Mar 24, 2017 2:52:15 AM | 48 & 49
Thank you kindly for the insights. Had a post runup that paralleled key points, but dumped that, feeble in comparison.
Mercenaries indeed.
Kurdish Iraqi mercenaries injected into Syria. Reminds me of late Rome being ever more dependent upon various tribes of ‘Barbarians’ to do the fighting and dying, not because there were few Romans available to do the fighting, they simply weren’t prepared to sacrifice to do so (oversimplification ?). Were traded ‘land’ & limited privileges for service as ‘cannon fodder’ and were were regularly betrayed … the Peshmerga will be betrayed too, IMHO, just as we betrayed the Iraqi Shia in southern Iraq during the ceasefire post the First Gulf War ’90-91 … we incited & misled them & then stood by as Saddam’s Republican Guard slaughtered & butchered for six weeks … cannot see this ending well …
Which leads to Paveway IVs dark sarcastic humor which only crystallizes the many truths within …
Having reviewed various veterans & associated forums, the old warhorses are pumped with testosterone, hearing ‘Ride of the Valkyries’ trumpeting in their heads or hollywood cavalry bugles sounding ‘Charge!’ ?, perhaps, thrilled at the decisive valiant efforts of our Elite proxies, our mercenaries, the SDF, Kurds, the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga …
Lots of staged photos of these valiant mercs, etc, by Centcom Psyops staff. Press releases and briefing by spokesmen re the great and wonderful deeds … yet no mention or acknowledgement of a country called Syria. No mention of the Government of the Syrian people, nor of their national defense force, the SAA. It is as if these ‘Elite'(?) military acchievements against the demonic ISIS occurs in unpopulated ‘Indian’ country in some mythical empty wild west.
It would seem these over-hyped valiant deeds have occurred against an enemy(?), ISIS, which wasn’t there, and didn’t actually or even seriously fight, just as a strain of the ‘moderate-headchoppers’ (Turkish brand) melted away before the Turks advances previously … up to the point they met another, strain/brand of proxies … other than REAL ever so convenient multiple simultaneous co-ordinated attacks against SAA !
Which is distressing and nauseating all at once. For the US forces supporting this are at little risk, and realistically, a very minor expeditionary support force, only. So, even with $1Trillion USD in Defense budgets comprising US, NATO & Allies, we seize upon and trumpet these mythical Psyop deeds as if they were our own ?
With ~1.3 million active service under arms (US Only) along with its vast military materiel, our mighty Empire is so weak re it’s concealed geopolitical goals, it is incapable of fielding it’s own troops at risk of casualties, nor uniformed troops of our Allies/Vassals, nor even ‘Private contractors’ now, not even supposed ‘moderate’ Syrian Rebels against the faux fabricated foe ISIS. No, our mighty Empire injects Kurdish mercenaries from Iraq into Syria, with cash now & false promises re the future, which will inevitably, as they always have been, betrayed. Yet the conditioning & indoctrination is so strong, we cheer ?!
The Iraqi’s and the Syrians, as well as their governments will not see it that way, and what of the Syrian Kurds themselves, who appear to have at least partially re-aligned with the Syrian government/RU, etc ?
Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, subsequent re branded ‘moderate head-choppers’ and/or AQ/ISIS as SDF, nor ANY US ground forces will be tolerated in Syria without consequences, any BS faux ‘peacekeeping’/’refugee zones’ claims or not … there is no ‘Sea’, for these ‘fish’, to swim in.
Late stage Empire decline comes to mind … Trump/Mattis/Tillersons ’30 day’ decisive plan heh ? … No, the Empires Hubris will not countenance a simple withdrawal and shutdown of US/CIA/GCC/Allies machinations, there must be a jingoist ‘Win’ … distressing, nauseating & highly probably tragically futile, in the end. And for what ?
Peace. Salaam. Shalom.
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 24 2017 15:25 utc | 69
@ Posted by: h | Mar 24, 2017 3:29:59 PM | 92
Bravo. Well said.
Pattern recognition indeed. Repeated norms of actual behavior, conduct, acts. UN charter, International Law, Sovereignty, Geneva Conventions, Laws of War … no State parties are perfect, nor faultless, far from it, yet some are blatant serial offenders 😉
If you control the head of the snake … you control the snake. Hence, to paraphrase Sun Tzu:
Ten men, ably led, will defeat a hundred, without a head.
So, when fighting 100 men with a ‘Head’ (leadership/command) why not just nullify the ‘Head‘, ie Kill/neutralize it. Or better still, suborn/compromise, the ‘Head‘. In the latter case you won’t even need the ‘ten men’ or even have to fight to defeat the 100 … their yours now, even though they may well not likely realize it, for some time, if at all.
Re the transcript, so the 68 nation coalition (1 + 67 vassals) that enabled, funded, deceived & propagandized this entire endeavor, escalated six long bloody years now, will now turn a new leaf and become principled moral global citizens ?
This quote from the transcript is exceedingly disingenuous, and may I suggest, cuts to the crux re ‘intent’, or more accurately, likely genuine lack of:
Our Muslim partners, particularly Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have important roles to play in combatting the message of ISIS and other radical Islamic terrorist groups.
LOL.
Coalition partners unite to defeat ‘Radical Islamic Terrorism‘, heh ? What about the root of it all, re the convenient ‘cannon-fodder’ & almost always monitored & under surveillance, ‘lone wolves’ ? Wahhabism.
Nurtured, financed, supported, developed and entrenched over 120 years ago by ‘Perfidious Albion’, to become the House of Al-Saud & the Construct of KSA, and the enormous sums of money that flows from the GCC, not much else because other than signing checks they’re pretty much useless, organized and co-ordinated by the US & ‘Coalition’ and has done so since at least 1979 (immediately prior to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 1979-1989) …
Can find no mention of the actual entities that actually defeated OUR vetted ‘moderate’ head-choppers (FSA) AQ & ISIS, who did the dirty hard work most crucially over the last 15 months, the Syrian people, the Syrian Army & Air Force, the legitimate elected Syrian government, nor of those who also sacrificed blood & treasure, at enormous national risk & constant threat, Russia & Iran, as well as Hezbollah ?
Not one word … … Hm, and that was the entire transcript.
One other observation re primary sources, why does the western MSM not EVER provide transcripts of speeches by the likes of Demon-Head™ Putin, or Evil™ Iranian Presidents, at the UN, conferences, etc ? Would such create dissonance re the sustained one-sided ‘narrative’ ?
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 24 2017 21:04 utc | 95
|
.jpg){kind=link}
