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Syria – Preparing For The Big Move On Idlib
During the last week significant moves in Syria have taken place east of Aleppo. But the situation there will likely soon calm down. The next intense phase of the war may well be a Syrian army attack on al-Qaeda's position in Idlib governate in the north-west of the country.
One objective of the Syrian Arab Army move east of Aleppo city was to block the invading Turkish forces from reaching further south. This had been achieved as of last week. The main objective though was to reach the pumping stations at the Euphrates which supply Aleppo city with drinking water. This aim was achieved yesterday. The SAA managed to evict the Islamic State from the shut-down station before it could blow it up. The generators and pumps were booby trapped but seem otherwise operational. After 40 days of strictly rationed water Aleppo city and its nearly 2 million people will soon be back on a normal water supply.
map by Peto Lucem bigger
I expect that the SAA contingent in east-Aleppo will now move further south and then east along the Euphrates towards Raqqa. This move though will no longer have a high priority. There is no longer an urgent need to continue in the area. Should the Islamic State stop its retreat in the area and show significant resistance the SAA is likely to stop and only hold its line.
The Turkish government still insists on taking Manbij currently held by the Kurdish YPK (under the label "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF)) which is now a U.S. proxy force under U.S. military command. Russia moved to insert Syrian army forces between the Turkish forces west of Manbij and the city. Thereby a buffer has been created between the Turkish (proxy) forces of "moderate rebels" and U.S. proxy forces of the Kurdish SDF. A few Russian special forces entered the area. As no SAA soldiers were readily available some local Arabs and Kurds were asked to put up a Syrian flag and to call themselves "Syrian border guard". They happily agreed to do so.
map via WaPo bigger
Parallel to the Russian move a U.S. sub-unit of the 75th Ranger Regiment made a show of force by driving five 8-wheeler Stryker vehicles with U.S. flags through some towns around Manbij. The signal to Turkey is clear. There are Russian and U.S. forces here. Do not dare to proceed into the area and to attack their Kurdish friends. A meeting was held in Ankara between the Turkish military command and the U.S. and Russian chiefs of staff. It is not yet known what the outcome was.
Despite the clear signals some proxy units under Turkish command opened fire on the "Syrian border guard" in the area. The Syrian government says that a a few of them were killed and it again raised the issue of the Turkish invasion with the United Nations. I expect the situation around Manbij to calm down. It would be very dangerous for Turkey to continue attacking in the area against the clear position of Russia and the U.S. military.
Further to the east the SDF continued to move towards Raqqa which is last bigger city in Syria held by the Islamic State. It is likely that ISIS will defend the city when it gets attacked. Turkey would like to take part in the attack on the city but the U.S. military has blocked that idea. It prefers to continue with its Kurdish partners. As these do not have heavy weapons the U.S. is introducing new forces into the area.
Already some 500 U.S. special forces (Green Berets) are training and leading the 10,000+ strong SDF proxy force. A small army unit is with them and provides artillery support with two long range MLRS missile systems. Added to these were the Ranger elements seen around Manbij. 400 U.S. Marines (11th MEU) were announced to soon enter the area. They will mostly provide 155mm artillery support and will take care of resupplies. 2,500 soldiers of the 2nd Brigade, 82nd Airborne are currently staging in Kuwait. It is not yet known what their task might be. The U.S. now has four military air fields in the Syrian Kurdish area north-east of the Euphrates. Two are for helicopters and two will soon be able to also service larger fixed-wing transport planes.
All this build up is taking place without a definite decision by the White House on how to proceed in Syria. The Wall Street Journal reports of discussions about a model where the U.S. and its proxies take Raqqa from the Islamic State and then concede it to the Syrian government. This would make a lot of sense but will surely be opposed by the Israeli/Saudi lobby in Washington as well as by some U.S. military. No final decision is expected before mid April when Turkey will hold a referendum about a presidential constitution. Other reports cite the U.S. commander in the area talking about a bigger "U.S. stabilization force" that will take over the area when the Islamic State is defeated.
Such a force would clearly be consider a U.S. occupation hostile to the Syrian government. It would be met with intense guerilla operations aimed at evicting the occupiers.
East of Homs the Syrian army has retaken Palmyra and the surrounding mountain and oil-field areas. Russian special forces were involved in this operation. I do not expect further large moves from there for the time being.
In the Damascus area the Syrian army continues to squeeze a few "rebel" held enclaves. These are binding many Syrian soldiers. When they are eliminated a sizable reserve will be available to be used in further battles.
There have recently been no significant movements in the southern areas around Daraa and near the Jordanian border. Jordan is involved in talks with Russia. Other talks have been held in Moscow between Putin and Netanyahoo. Some plans are obviously made to evict the Islamic State and al-Qaeda from the Jordan-Israel-Lebanon borderline but especially the Israeli position is difficult to manage. It prefers to keep al-Qaeda in the area as a pressure group against the Syrian state. No results from the recent talks have been announced.
West of Aleppo city around Idlib city al-Qaeda has continued fighting with other Islamist groups like Ahrar al Sham. The al-Qaeda led "rebel" alliance in Idlib is some 10,000 strong and the biggest force in the area. It will be difficult to defeat or evict. Retaking Idlib governate and city requires a large operation by the Syrian army. But currently al-Qaeda is losing support with the population and is involved in infighting. Its support from the outside has diminished. But outside support for al-Qaeda, by Turkey, the U.S., Saudi Arabia or Qatar, could come back when the Syrian army attacks the area.
Main operations by the Syrian army in east-Aleppo and east-Homs have achieved their immediate aims. The units involved in these could now be moved to other areas. When the "rebel" pockets around Damascus are eliminated, hopefully soon, more forces become available. The large force and reserve the Syrian army needs to attack Idlib will soon be available.
Curiously the NY Times just published a somewhat sympathetic portrait of a U.S. born al-Qaeda propagandist who operates as al-Qaeda's English language media channel in the area. Are we back to the "cuddly, moderate al-Qaeda" caricature that was earlier used to justify U.S. support for Takfiri terrorists? Will the U.S. again support al-Qaeda should the Syrian army finally move to retake Idlib?
@ Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 12, 2017 9:12:39 AM | 97 & 101
There is clearly a current global(western) Psyop narrative against the Trump-Faction, which comes down to the unforeseen US nativist/nationalists vs the Globalists/Atlanticists(sic). Within that are many sub-narratives, such as assertions of racism/white supremacy, etc. Any mud that ‘could’ stick is being thrown as part of a ‘whole’ campaign of de-legitimization, IMHO.
The focus of my post, was clearly ongoing documented ‘Policy’, re the wider ‘context’.
Policies which effectively remain unchanged for generation upon generation, with minor tactical variations &/or temporary withdrawals, for well over 100 years. Those documented ‘Policies’ and the actions & consequences of such are clear & unrelentingly recorded, decade after decade, regardless of general societal changes, regardless of Dem/GOP administrations changing hands.
Why ?
The Committee/s Against the present Danger, the Trilateral Commission, Project for a New American Century, Council on Foreign Relations, The Atlantic Council, etc, et al, and all the abhorrent individuals, on a merry go-round of changing chairs amongst them that slip in and out of revolving Administrations, that are beholden to, sponsored, funded & receive patronage by these unrepresentative ‘Think Tanks’/’Policy Houses’, alone have been consistently funded at enormous cost to set, control and sustain these clearly essentially never-changing core policies, regardless of what any of the likes of us mere mortals may think. None of it by accident, nor ‘coincidental’, when looked at re the ‘record’ …
Indian career diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar remarks:
“The time is not far off before they begin to sense that ‘the war on terror’ is providing a convenient rubric under which the US is incrementally securing for itself a permanent abode in the highlands of Hindu Kush, the Pamirs, Central Asian steppes and the Caucasus that form the strategic hub overlooking Russia, China, India and Iran.” The scene for a great war involving the great powers of the time – US, Russia and China – is now set, by design of the elite. It is just a matter of time.
Time and again the US elite has taken its good people into great wars through documented and proven deceptions – the sinking of the Lusitania during World War I, Pearl Harbour in World War II, and so on. The elite considers us “human garbage” – a term first used by the French in Indo-China. It is also generating a good deal of “human garbage” in the US. A World Bank report points out that in 2005, 28 million Americans were “insecure” – in 2007 the number had risen to 46 million! One in every five Americans is faced with the possibility of becoming “destitute” – 38 million people receive food coupons!
Michael Ruppert fatalistically laments:
My country is dead. Its people have surrendered to tyranny and in so doing, they have become tyranny’s primary support group; its base; its defender. Every day they offer their endorsement of tyranny by banking in its banks and spending their borrowed money with the corporations that run it. The great Neocon strategy of George H.W. Bush has triumphed. Convince the America people that they can’t live without the ‘good things’, then sit back and watch as they endorse the progressively more outrageous crimes you commit as you throw them bones with ever less meat on them. All the while lock them into debt. Destroy the middle class, the only political base that need be feared. Make them accept, because of their shared guilt, ever-more repressive police state measures. Do whatever you want.
A succint, concise primer ? :
The Elite the Great Game and World War III ? – Mujahid Kamran 2011/06/08
The control of the US, and of global politics, by the wealthiest families of the planet is exercised in a powerful, profound and clandestine manner. This control began in Europe and has a continuity that can be traced back to the time when the bankers discovered it was more profitable to give loans to governments than to needy individuals.
These banking families and their subservient beneficiaries have come to own most major businesses over the two centuries during which they have secretly and increasingly organised themselves as controllers of governments worldwide and as arbiters of war and peace…
A global economic system erected on inhuman and predatory values, where a few possess more wealth than the billions of hungry put together, will end, but the end will be painful and bloody. It is a system in which the elite thrives on war and widespread human misery, on death and destruction by design.
Of which Syria is one battle, in one ‘minor’ war, within a larger series of Wars, on which Terra is the actual battlefield and the ultimate prize, and has been so, longer than my years.
Fully concur with jfl @98:
things cannot change without first accepting things as they (have been &) are. and then changing them.
@ Posted by: smuks | Mar 12, 2017 8:07:09 AM | 99
China is no competitor, but Russia is.
This is China’s century, should it wish to seize it, or be forced to.
Though western media refuses to report it, China surpassed the US as the world’s No. 1 economy a few years ago, and it’s technological/military modernization and exponential growth has paralleled that of it’s economy.
It’s economic influence & diplomacy (soft power) is apparent on every continent. Now being explicitly demonstrated re such as propeace @95 references, for example.
An actual alliance between Russia & China, a mutually beneficial symbiosis of the great strengths of each, would be likely unbeatable, and is clearly the US Empires (& vassals) greatest fear.
It is a fortunate, overlooked and interesting ironic twist that the hubris of the US Empire gave the Chinese a seat, along with the intended puppets UK/France in the Security Council, when the UN was formed post WWII, at a time when the KMT (China) was a beholden indebted dependent puppet, only to have the Evil™ ChiComs flip that calculus on it’s head.
From a planned 4 to 1, to a wholly unintended & unexpected 3 to 1 + 1. Most fortunate for humanity, IMHO.
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 12 2017 15:14 utc | 103
dh @112
Unlike Columbus, Cortes and Pisarro.
Absolutely, not only the epochs were far apart, Columbus was over a hundred years earlier, neither of the 3 was financed by capitalists, but by the crown. They were not settlers, they were warriors.
Columbus was punished for his greed and cruelty, removed from power.
By the time of Cortés arrival royal power was already institutionalized in Cuba.
Both Cortés and Pizarro conquered big empires, against all odds. More than military might, their success was due to the alliances they formed, exploring the contradictions within the Aztecs and the Incas.
Both Cortés and Pizarro offspring were from native women, and so was that of most of their soldiers. For instance the Inca Garcilaso de la Vega that wrote about the Pizarro’s conquest and the Inca Empire, the product of both cultures.
By the time of the founding of Jamestown there were several thriving cities in the Spanish virreinatos, inhabited by natives, mestizos, few criollos and fewer europeans.
The main difference between the Spanish and the British Empire’s colonizations is precisely the relation with the natives. The former was miscegenation and inclusiveness, the latter rape and exclusiveness.
Settler colonialism and it’s associated racism and supremacism didn’t surface south of the Rio Grande until the liberal revolution in Spain, which led to the fragmentation of the virreinatos, and infighting between different regional oligarchies. Argentina probably illustrates it best, with the “Conquest of the Desert” and the ulterior European immigration. If you read spanish I would recommend the quotes in this article to understand the mindset. The result was the eradication of entire native nations, the erasing from history of the african contribution to the formation of the nation.
19th-20th centuries European immigration changed not only the ethnic mosaic of all of the Americas and created new oligarchies in detriment of the majority of local populations.
Incidently, the dispossession inflicted on the native populations was occurring simultaneously in all continents, in the name of progress and freedom, in Argentina as in Spain, in Ireland and in Indonesia, in Britain and in India.
Just one more thing, folks in South America don’t willingly fight over borders. Normally it takes heavy imperial pressure. Like the Chaco war, between Shell and Standard Oil, that cost Paraguay and Bolivia 100.000 dead. Or the previous Triple Alianza war, instigated by Britain, conducted by Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay against Paraguay, for the simple reason the latter chose to develop it’s own industries and taxing british goods, a crime against freedom and democracy, for what it was punished with the slaughter of all adult males. Neither those dead, nor the Negros that composed the invasion army, of which few returned alive, had any willingness to fight over borders. Should I continue?
The History we are thought is just another conditioning tool. Most of it his faulty, some is lies, the spin is on the omissions and qualifications.
Posted by: estouxim | Mar 13 2017 3:17 utc | 121
@ Posted by: smuks | Mar 14, 2017 7:57:16 AM | 149
Remarkable, so you are able to actually, ‘link’.
Have travelled throughout mainland China repeatedly, often up to six times a year, weeks at a time, for almost a decade primarily re my then business prior to being forced to retire in 2010-2011.
SinoDefenceForum – Chinese Economics Thread (11-13-16)
China’s middle class is driving the change, with consumption (not exports) now the biggest driver of the economy. Consumption is only set to grow by 2030, with China expected to have a middle class of a staggering 800 million people … with its associated discretionary spending is too good a market for any country to contemplate walking away from as suggested in the korea thread.
… as the world’s biggest economy restructures from manufacturing and exports towards services and consumption.
On the outskirts of Beijing is a vision of the future — a high-tech, clean green agricultural centre that uses hydroponics and LED lighting to minimise water, energy and land usage.…
Michael Boddington, an agribusiness consultant who has been working in China for 18 years, said China
was moving away from basic food production to more value-added food production.
“The key message … is sustainable agriculture, food security and food safety,” Mr Boddington said.
And, the mutually beneficial non-imperial/non-colonial Sino version of a true ‘Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere’ … a total dependence on global trade routes controlled either by the US (sea) or Russia (land) ? Behind the times BS & too much NYT & CNN for you it would seem.
This, is the primary motivation for failing US Empire attempted interference in the Sth China Sea, on China’s doorstep:
China invests in south-east Asia for trade, food, energy and resources
In 2015, south-east Asia will become one sprawling economic zone encompassing Burma, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei.
Already bound by myriad political and trade agreements, these 10 countries comprising Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) account for 9% of the world’s population – with some 600 million people, twice the size of the US – and have a combined GDP of $1.8tn (£1.14tn).
China has long had one foot in the region, which is home to rich oil, gas, mineral, hydropower, rice, palm oil, coffee and timber resources. By 2015, however, bilateral trading between China and Asean, which began with a fair-trade agreement in 2010, will have more than doubled from $231bn to $500bn, making China Asean’s biggest trading partner, according to China expert Dr Ken Shao of Australia’s Murdoch University.
“China’s investment in south-east Asia is growing at a double-digit speed annually,” says Shao. “In 2011 to 2012, China’s top six investment destinations in south-east Asia were Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore – with textiles, electrics, steel, shipbuilding, chemical and IT popular investment themes.”
And,
Jan 6, 2017 – China cementing global dominance of renewable energy and technology. It now owns five of the world’s six largest solar-module manufacturing firms and the largest wind-turbine manufacturer …
Jan 5, 2017 – China to plow $361 billion into renewable fuel by 2020 | Reuters
China will plow 2.5 trillion yuan ($361 billion) into renewable power generation by 2020, the country’s energy agency said on Thursday, as the …
CHINA’S FAST TRACK TO A RENEWABLE FUTURE – The Climate Group (PDF)
China has wasted no time in directing billions of dollars into its clean energy sector…
And,
China’s Innovative Approach to Energy Security – IAEE (PDF)
…Many commentators believe China engages in these equity deals, loans, and other bilateral agreements to “control” these sources of oil and send them directly back to China, buffering their own supplies. However, as several analysts have pointed out, the majority of the oil produced under these agreements is not shipped directly back to China, but is instead sold on the spot market, to the highest bidder. The only oil shipped back to China from these sources is the oil that is profitable to be shipped back …
Absent the direct application of military force against their global oil infrastructure, China would have
the capacity to remain partially immune to any energy-based sanctions, by continuing to import from
several countries that will resist cooperating with Western powers on a sanctions package, and would
do all they could to hold on to China as a key export partner. This is a major advantage for Chinese energy security, as it reduces leverage and coercive power that can be applied in the future by any powers
hostile to its strategic interests.
What is another major reason the US Empire trying to maintain a foothold in Afghanistan despite the huge unsustainable costs in treasure ?
To impede and interfere with China ideally hedging re it’s Oil/Gas energy security needs ‘locally’ in partnership with Iran.
The mutual benefit is Iran would be able to guarantee Iranian economic security through assured Chinese demand for its oil and gas exports. The China/Afghan border corridor to Iran is potentially outside the control of both the United States and Russia, strategically beneficial to both Iran & China into the future. Yet another reason for ongoing US animosity towards Iran, in order to contain/restrain the primary competitor, China. And also a large part of the reason why China courts Pakistan …
Frankly, the single most important & ongoing critical strategic vulnerability for China is sufficient available potable water for it’s regions … as it has been throughout it’s multi-millenia existence, and they have effective solutions planned for that too (see Hoarsewhisper re 5 year plans), given advances in scalable modern technology …
You can take your repetitive ad-hom & contemptable ‘evidence’ and —- it, along with MSM macro level vacuous verbage.
Posted by: Outraged | Mar 14 2017 14:30 utc | 152
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