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The End Of Mingling – “Moderate Rebels” Join Al-Qaeda In Syria
There was a lot of confusion about the infighting in the "rebel" held Idleb governate in Syria. The situation is now clearing up. After other tricks, like renaming the group, did not work to deceive, al-Qaeda finally pulled back the veil. It is no longer hiding between the "moderate rebels" but is now (again) a clearly identifiable groups. Groups near to al-Qaeda integrated with it, other groups split with significant parts joining the al-Qaeda organization.
Qalaat Al Mudiq @QalaatAlMudiq N. #Syria: Tahrir Al-Sham Corps is born. Zinki, #JFS, Jaish Al-Sunna, Ansar Al-Din & Liwa Al-Haq merged under unified leadership (Abu Jaber)
The Zinki (Zengi) group had CIA support and received anti-tank weapons from the U.S. and its Gulf proxies. JFS is the short form of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the official al-Qaeda group in Syria. It is the strongest "rebel" group on the ground. Abu Jabar is a former Ahrar al-Sham leader who had long argued for integrating both groups. The Turkish and U.S. supported Ahrar al Sham has now officially split. The probably larger part under Abu Jabar has joined al-Qaeda.
 bigger
The "new" Hayyat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) is not a coalition of the various groups but THE new al-Qaeda group on the ground with a unified command and ideological structure. The operative military leader is Abu Jabar while the founder of al-Qaeda in Syria, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, will stay in the background as the overall emir of the group. Hayyat Tahrir Al-Sham has a military alliance in Idleb with the smaller local ISIS group Jund al-Aqsa. Joining with them is not (yet) convenient.
The now further enlarged al-Qaeda formation under the new name Tahrir Al-Sham is by far the biggest "rebel" dog in the Idleb-region town with now many more than its previous 10,000 active fighters. Of all other groups the "moderate" side of the split Ahrar al-Sham is the biggest one. It is estimated to have some 5,000 fighters. Left beside it are just splinters of those groups (like Zinki) that mainly crossed over to al-Qaeda. Some local warlords and their small gangs are also still around. These groups will continue to receive Turkish and U.S. support. But they will have no chance against the much more powerful al-Qaeda collective.
The leader of al-Qaeda in Syria al-Julani made a huge mistake by initiating this open split from the "moderates". The group can now no longer hide by "mingling" with the CIA supported "moderates". When it is attacked by the Syrian government it can no longer claim to be a victim. As it is a UN designated terrorist group it will receive no significant outside support. It can not even go into guerrilla mode because the "fish" (the guerrilla) will have no "water" (a sympathetic local population) to swim in.
This plays well into the Russian hands which initiated the Astana peace conference exactly for this purpose. The U.S. under Obama and Kerry had declared it impossible to separate al-Qaeda in Syria from the "moderate rebels" it supported. The Astana conference and in its consequence the now open al-Qaeda conflict with the "moderates" achieved the separation. The "moderates" left now can only join al-Qaeda, make peace with the Syrian government and its allies or flee the country to survive.
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In other news the Syrian government forces have finally recaptured the Ayn al-Feejah in Wadi Barada that supplies Damascus with drinking water. 5.5 million people were cut off from tap water when the Takfiris captured, poisoned and blocked the spring 44 days ago. After three earlier deals had failed the now defeated Takfirs agreed to being transported to Idleb.
@ Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 29, 2017 10:39:54 AM | 70
Concur.
The previous Congress did not create a legal precedent by breaching International & Domestic Sovereign Immunity Law and opening a Pandora’s Box, to allow for prosecutions of the State of Saudi-Arabia, it’s citizens and government officials, even subsequent sanctions & more, by passing the relevant legislation in 2016 by accident. And the KSA and House of Al-Saud and all their moneyed lobbyists, did NOT prevent it … as some would tritely wish to suggest/project …
Just as Saddam Hussein was lured into attacking Iran in the Iraq-Iran War & then Kuwait, suspect we may have ‘lured/enticed/encouraged’, hands-off, the KSA into their ‘Mini-Vietnam‘ in Yemen. It is necessary to set the stage, undermine the foundations, weaken the structure, before demolishing the House … it takes time and preparation, a lead-up and lead-in … what if ‘dramatic’ incriminating evidence re KSA & GCC involvement with ISIS and Al-Qaeda, etc was conveniently ‘discovered’ & publicly dramatically exposed re Syria, and then referenced back to 9/11 & the ‘Secret’ Saudi appendix (never actioned) ?
IF the current administration truly seeks the destruction of ISIS & Islamic Terrorism, then the KSA & GCC may well be on borrowed time … and conveniently sitting on an awful lot of feebly protected ‘Oil‘ and ‘Natural Gas‘. Protected, security guaranteed, ironically, by us.
@ Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jan 29, 2017 11:34:52 AM | 71
Concur.
@ Posted by: Debsisdead | Jan 29, 2017 7:14:08 AM | 63
The reference Paul AU made was specifically to ‘Interpreters’ who enter into service for a foreign nation, an invading aggressor, and similar context re many refugees as ‘collaborators/traitors’ re the Sth Vietnamese puppet government and the aggressor, the US of A … and is it not strange, that many flee to seek refuge from the very country most responsible for the tragedy that is their lot, and has been and is Syria today …
In Somalia in the early ’90’s, it was realized after about 8 months in, that our ‘surprise’ snatch n bag raids, cordon & search and other operations were regularly hitting ’empty air’, despite sound intel work in the lead-up … all OPSEC was reviewed, and certain CI Ops were conducted to confirm suspicions … result, 9 out of 10 of the ‘Volunteer Interpreters/Guides’ were confirmed as actively working as double agents for Aidid and/or the other warlords … the volunteer ‘walk-ins’, as in most similar situations (Embassies/Consulates) are usually … charming, persuasive, opportunists …
Most were ‘walk-ins’, some were approached/recruited directly, however, virtually all were discovered to be fundamentally compromised, either before they ‘walked-in’ or targeted and ‘turned’ shortly after they were recruited … this lesson was not learnt re the Iraq Invasion of 2003 …
On the ground, in person, it was considered those who had shared meals, quarters and served alongside, yet worked for Aidid, were traitors … yet from the perspective of the Somali’s, those who ‘collaborated’ with UN/US forces … were the real traitors …
In Chinese antiquity inward & converted spies (traitors/collaborators(interpreters?/guides?))(Sun Tzu) were typically treated with great respect and given wide liberties/privileges, comforts and rewards … yet, when the ‘conflict’ was over … they were usually promptly put to death …
The Treason pleases, but the Traitors are odious – Miguel De Cervantes
No wise man ever thought that a traitor should be trusted – Marcus Tullius Cicero
I forgive those who murder and steal because they did it out of necessity, but a traitor, never – Emilio Zapata
Grasping at whatever chance presents to protect/advance oneself and family, as ‘uninvolved’ human flotsam caught up within the maelstrom, is entirely understandable, as you say.
@ Posted by: Circe | Jan 29, 2017 11:44:10 AM | 73
Yeah, yeah, sure, sure, Zionist bidding, blah, blah. Maybe you should do a search on the keywords ‘ADL Trump’ & ‘AIPAC Trump’, hm ?
Posted by: Outraged | Jan 29 2017 16:53 utc | 75
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