Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 28, 2016

The Turkish Invasion Of Syria As Path To "Regime Change"

by Mark Sleboda
(via facebook)

The US-backed Turkish invasion of Syria with its proxies in tow now moves further into Syria to seize Al-Bab in a landgrab to create Erdogan's (and the U.S. neocon Brookings Institute's) long desired jihadi "safe haven"/"no fly zone" for al-Qaeda & friends to operate and stage from with impunity from Russian and Syrian airstrikes.


Map by Peto Lucem - bigger

Al-Bab is a "backdoor" on key routes south to Aleppo from the Turkish border.

Turkish supplies for the Islamic Army of Conquest offensives in South Aleppo and Latakia: arms, ammo, supplies, even artillery, tanks have been reported as flowing like water over the Turkish border

Turkey is obviously not coordinating its incursion with the Syrian government which condemns it as a violation of its sovereignty. The Kremlin's impotent calls for Turkey to coordinate with Damascus while waving the old Geneva communique have been completely ignored. Unfortunately there is little they can do at this point without engaging in a full scale war with Turkey and the U.S. in Syria. Something the Kremlin lacks the will to do. Turkey/U.S. intend that their proxies take Aleppo as leverage in settlement negotiations to force Assad to step down, or partition if that fails.

Both the Turkish and FSA flags, (not the Syrian flag), were raised over "liberated" Jarablus

Securing the Jarablus corridor from a westward YPG advance in attempts to link their "cantons" east and west along the Turkish border prevents supply lines to "Syrian rebels" from Turkey from being cut. That's why Turkey has taken action here while however grudgingly accepting Kurdish control over large stretches of Syrian-Turkish border everywhere else without taking action. The ratlines to the "rebels" are Turkey's primary concern here. Kurds are an important but demonstratively second concern.

Turkey's incursion was backed by US air-cover, drones, and embedded special forces per the WSJ. These were there largely to prevent Russia and Syria from even thinking about taking action against the invading forces.

Turkey is moving into Syria not just with its own military, but with thousands of "rebel opposition groups" including US-backed FSA brigades allied with AlQaeda/Nusra/Sham and the child head-chopping al-Zinki who are reported to form the vanguard. Syrian territory is outright being turned over to them by the Turkish military, simply exchanging control from one group of terrorist jihadis (ISIS) to others who are more media acceptable and more direct proxies of the Erdogan regime, the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

That said, ISIS has not resisted the Turkish advance at all - simply "melting away" (or exchanging one set of uniforms for another?). No stay-behinds, no suicide bombers, no IEDS, nothing. No fighting. Zero casualties. Turkish and "Syrian rebel" forces literally strolled in to Jarablus taking selfies and posing for cameras. Tag-team turnover.

The Kurdish YPG/SDF have proven that they have become nothing but lickspittle currs for the U.S., despite being betrayed, dutifully responding to the leash and withdrawing from Manbij which they bled for, and all positions east of the Euphrates on Biden's orders as he staged a press conference in Ankara with Erdogan. They have served their part in providing another layer of pretext for Turkey to invade Syria.

Layers of Pretext for Turkish invasion of Syria:

  1. "Liberating" Jarablus from ISIS to give it to al-Qaeda
  2. Giving Jarablus to al-Qaeda to deny it to Kurds
  3. Safe/No Fly Zone for al-Qaeda
  4. Neocon Plan B - Partition of Syria (if necessary)

The question has been raised about Russia's and Syria's supposedly "muted response" to all this and that their existing protestations (linked below) to the contrary are actually "lies" and that both are somehow in agreement and collusion with everything Erdogan is doing above in some kind of grand Eurasian alliance conspiracy and agreement to end the conflict in Syria ...

Right? This theory is really too absurd and far-fetched wishful thinking to warrant addressing. See Moscow: Russian Foreign Ministry Expresses Concern About Turkish Operation in Syria", Damascus: Syria condemns Turkey’s breach of Syria’s sovereignty in Jarablos

What kind of response do you expect? Do you think Russia would shoot U.S. and Turkish planes out of the sky and bomb Turkish forces in Syria? The Turkish coup upheaval aside, the Turkish military is still large enough several times over to crush the small Russian military taskforce in Syria. To say nothing of where things would go from there in a war with NATO.

What did Russia do when U.S., UK, France etc quietly put their own special forces and troops on the ground in Syria over the last year? What was the Kremlin's response just days ago when the U.S. declared a no fly zone over their SDF proxies attacking Syrian government forces and threatened to shoot down Russian jets?

Nothing. They did nothing then just like their "muted" objections now. Not because they want it to happen or are "in on it" but because there is nothing they can do about it short of openly attacking and going to war with the U.S. and Turkey (i.e. NATO) which the Kremlin is NOT willing to do for Syria.

They are likewise not going to make threats or demands about violations of Syria's sovereignty that they will not and cannot back up. Such bluster is not their style. It achieves nothing. They will continue to play the long game in Syria and hope events still turn their way without direct military confrontation with the U.S. and Turkey. They continue to push for a negotiated settlement on terms favorable to Damascus. Everyone is still playing the charade that they are all in the conflict in Syria to fight terrorists when we all know that it is just a front and the symptom for regime change. That game goes on, just now with Turkey upping the ante.

The U.S. and Turkey want a negotiated settlement too - they are just not willing to accept the current status of forces and intend to escalate and create new facts on the ground, primarily in and around Aleppo, that they hope will force Russia to accept that "Assad Must Go!" ensuring a settlement more favorable to them.

Erdogan has actually always been much louder and more insistent in demanding a "safe haven"/"no fly zone" for the proxies over the Jarablus corridor than the US. Erdogan pushed for it several times, and Obama refused, apparently infuriating his own State Department, CIA, and foreign policy elite in the process. Now Erdogan's tantrums and witch-hunt over the lack of Western support during the attempted Kemalist military coup, have blackmailed Obama into acceding to this, in order to restore relations.

Overall, however the US has put the hegemon's name, power, and prestige on the line for "Assad Must Go!" They simply cannot accept anything less than regime change. In the end, particularly after Clinton comes to power in the U.S. early next year and escalates the situation further than Obama has been willing as he tries to run out the clock, I am afraid that Russia will simply throw up their hands and walk away with whatever they can still get - not willing to go to World War III over Syria. A gambit the U.S. has no such reservations about. And that is the Kremlin's weakness, and why red line after red line of their's keeps getting crossed closer and closer to Russia's borders itself.

When Russia itself is at last on the line and in the targets, it may not have any friends left willing to stand by it.

 

[Note by b:

I can not decide which side has the upper hand. The "west" or Russia and its allies. Mark's well thought out version above may be spot on. But little birds tell me that all is going along a common Russian-Turkish plan to which the U.S had to acquiesce. Russia's potential threat to Turkey, should it try to cheat, is seriously arming  the PKK Kurds. Remember the anti-armor missiles and that one MANPAD they recently used? Those were warnings. Both versions make sense in their own. But can both be right?]

Posted by b on August 28, 2016 at 17:25 UTC | Permalink

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in German - FAZ on situation in Syria

They say

a) YPG did not withdraw but are fighting Turkey
b) the "transatlantic wing" of the Turkish army was purged the "Eurasian wing" remained
c) the betrayal of the YPG means that Kurds will not fight to take Mosul leaving the US with Shiite forces

Posted by: somebody | Aug 29 2016 9:21 utc | 101


@ PavewayIV 12


" The 'solution' in Syria lies neither with Assad nor the west's fanciful ideas of a replacement government. Putin gets that."

And yes it is far more complicated. For the time being though I think the "solution" in Syria lies exactly with Assad and nobody else. He has huge support in the population and the army and security forces are behind him. They still don't stop chanting "Allah, Suryia, Bashar wa bass" meaning: Allah, Syria and Bashar is all that matters. This is not an order by Assad but they just do that because they feel connected with him. Now, after the war has arrived in Syria this connection goes far beyond the obedience you feel in true dictatorships. It is more of an admiration to Assad for standing up to a conspiracy against their country and for staying and fighting the fight with them.

And I also don't think that the Americans or any other Western "Civilized" Power for that matter are truly looking for solutions and replacements for "dictators" to make things in those countries (countries the West thinks need a regime change for more 'democracy bs") better and improve lives of the people.

The opposite is true. Where "dictatorship" , or whatever you would call a tightly ruled country, like in Libya, Iraq and Syria has worked extremely well it had to be destroyed and replaced by what? Chaos. This is the solution the West is providing to the people of the world.

Libya, Iraq and Syria were first of all independent nations with a very large young population which was well educated. In general these nations were considered to be very wealthy, in particular the people in Iraq. Of course people would complain about a lot of things but it would be up to the people to change that and not a foreign power.

This is the principle that Russia wants to have reestablished. Strong Nation States and absolutely no interference in internal affairs.

Posted by: Demeter | Aug 29 2016 9:27 utc | 102

Dear b,

Many thanks for Posting Mark Sleboda's piece. Whilst I share much of his exasperation, I cannot be anywhere near so downbeat.

Echoing certain other commenters and comments, I also think that:

a) there's still stuff we don't know about (deals)

b) Assad is not cooked. What we have is a consolidation of territories on hand

c) Turkey is an 'official' actor now that it has invaded Syria - this is a fundamental change of status, and will reap the consequences

d) each move by state sponsors of terror, the UK/US, Turkey, Qatar & Saudi Arabia (etc.) has been matched by the Russian/I-ranian/China etc. coalition

e) in light of d), I see China's apparent toe dangling in to the fray as a measured addition and counter point to recent moves by the US & Turkey. They're indicating that Russia has their backing. The (Russian) strategy has been all along to 'bank' your gains at regular intervals and to not 'double or nothing' which is what the West has been practising for a looong time.

f) the West & the gulfies are out of all out winning options short of full scale occupation and all that entails, politically, militarily & economically.

So, I think we are in to the beginning of end game phase, i.e. how certain actors will seek to disengage themselves with the maximum face and influence. The fighting will still go on for a while, but ISIS/ISIL/DAESH/Whatever is cooked. What will stay behind is anyone's guess, but it won't be effective, unlike the SDF/Kurds who the US has so readily stabbed in the back. That was inevitable and grimly funny.

In my book, that makes Russia look like the most reasonable partner of all. Limited & clear objectives banked on completion, not at any cost. There's only so much that can be done without others pulling their weight. And let us not forget about "Winning the peace" when it comes. Syria will need to be reconstructed and will continue to be under economic and other assault from its enemies.

Not that I know anything!

Posted by: et Al | Aug 29 2016 9:42 utc | 103

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN11305C

Turkey's army and its allies thrust deeper into Syria on Sunday, seizing territory controlled by Kurdish-aligned forces on the fifth day of a cross-border campaign that a monitoring group said had killed at least 35 villagers.

Turkish warplanes roared into northern Syria at daybreak and artillery pounded what security sources said were sites held by the Kurdish YPG militia, after the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported fierce overnight fighting around two villages.

Turkey said 25 Kurdish militants were killed in its air strikes and denied there were civilian casualties.

There was no immediate comment from the YPG, but forces aligned with the group have said it had withdrawn from the area prior to the assault.

Turkey, which is also battling Kurdish insurgents at home, sent tanks and troops into Syria on Wednesday to support its Syrian rebel allies. The Turkish-backed forces first seized the Syrian border town of Jarablus from Islamic State militants before pushing south into areas held by Kurdish-aligned militias. They have also moved west towards Islamic State areas.

Turkish officials say their goal in Syria is as much about ensuring Kurdish forces do not expand the territory they already control along Turkey's border as it is about driving Islamic State from its strongholds.

However, the Turkish offensive has so far focused on forces allied to the Kurdish-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition that includes the YPG, an Observatory source said.

The SDF has support from the United States -- which sees the group as an effective Syrian ally against Islamic State, putting Turkey at odds with a fellow NATO member and further complicating Syria's five-year-old civil war

Posted by: okie farmer | Aug 29 2016 9:46 utc | 104

jfl says:

This post seems like more psyops

well, yeah, it's just that bloggy woggy world has done to geopolitical analysis what phone cams have done to photography, or what the music industry has done to music.

(or even what junk food has done to tastebuds)

it's gotten so hard to identify anything truly meaningful in the onslaught, the deluge, of content, of stimuli.

which of course is the point!

the ENTER NET, the greatest mind-control technology yet devised by man.

Posted by: john | Aug 29 2016 10:05 utc | 105

For London, propaganda is an art

http://www.voltairenet.org/article193049.html

Posted by: xyz | Aug 29 2016 10:42 utc | 106

@somebody |14

i too noticed this on the turkish news over the weekend. Turkey is desperate for some tourist industry success this coming Kurban Bayram - so much so that a two week holiday has been declared, and civil servanta are being paid their salary including a bonus early additionally RF touriats are also incredibly important to the tourist industry's ability to recoup some of the to-date 20bn loss! if RF was at all pissed off with Turkey it need only delay the resumption of these charter flighta and Turkey would be hit hard.

But RF is not pissed, probably not even surprised by what is happening.

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 29 2016 10:45 utc | 107

What simply does not add up is the question of Turkey's ability to directly invade and occupy.
The western media narrative that last year or before that the Turkish generals stood in the way of such action but now they've gone Erdogan has 'operational control' is whitewash at best.
Neither previously nor now has Erdogan lifted a finger wothout either NATO or US go ahead. Have we forgotten the lengths to which Turkey went to try and drag NATO into the fray?
The action we are seeing now is concessional on the part of US albeit under duress. How far it will go has yet to be seen.
Whether Turkey is indeed able directly to go much further and create a zone or invade is debatable. imho it would want help or it would be left overstretched and the Kurds domestically could cause more havoc than they are now.
There seems to be some degree of 'positioning' going on - stage set for settlement.
Kurdish ambitions have been reigned in to counter the reigning in of Turkish ambitions. Turkey is in a far weaker position and Erdogan far more willing to compromise since two months ago.
Who says the coup didnt work!

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 29 2016 10:59 utc | 108

@ Grieved 6

I fully agree.

It amazes me that every time when harsh criticism of the Russian foreign policy and failures in Syria are mentioned that every success on the diplomatic or military field is forgotten and Putin/Russia bashing is starting all over again.

I would like to remind everybody here that in 2013 it was thanks to Russia that Nato did, or better could not start a full blown war against Syria. Syria would not exist today the way we know it had it not been for Russia.

It is thanks to Russia, that the US and partner have been pushed into corners, through military success on the ground and nothing else, and then forced to negotiate. Russia knows quite well that America detests these negotiations where they are again pushed into a corner and they have to deliver, they have to compromise, they have to either do what Russia wants them to do or show their ugly true face. The Amercians only come to the negotiating table, when a military solution can not be reached. The Russians negotiate although they could achieve a military solution but they prefer negotiations over war. Not out of weakness but out of human behaviour.

Thanks to b for adding that little paragraph of well founded hope.

I hope that this time it's Russia and Turkey playing theatre together against NATO bastards. But I also think should Turkey consider betraying Russia it will have dire consequences for Turkey.

Posted by: Demeter | Aug 29 2016 10:59 utc | 109

BTW on the same day as the incursion - the same day that Biden was in Ankara, Barzani also arrived in Ankara.
Anyone know who Barzani met or why?

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 29 2016 11:03 utc | 110

The only thing certain in this theatre of the absurd is the defunct idea of a Kurdistan emerging any time soon. Probability just took on near zero values.

Whether Turkey has 'invaded' or 'liberated' northern Syrian borderlands will be dependent on if/when they withdraw in due course.

As for whether the 'rat lines' are operating or not, and for whom, the momentum is with forces loyal to Assad. It will simply take longer and likely leave a rump of non-Assad Syrian parties as at least somewhat viable opposition when the time comes to discuss the next phase of a federated(?) Syria.

Recent tactical actions on Syria's northern borderlands may well obscure the broader strategic implications for a 'whole' Syria.

With Turkey in control of some 'captured' Syrian territory and the US boxed into a backseat with a remnant Kurd faction, the end-game solution may well be a new government of a sovereign Syria (Assad or not depending on the Syrian people -- Putin's basic stand) and a requirement for all borders to be restored: north, east & south!

If this scenario unfolds in due course then Erdogan can hardly be expected to retreat and hand over occupied Syrian lands in the north if Netanyahu retains the Golan Heights in the south.

Erdogan will have a loud and blustering defence (as the strawman) but the covert agreed aim will likely be to get the Israelis enmeshed into the 'whole' Syria agenda -- aka hand back the Golan Heights under UN observation (with Russia likely to be the troop provider as the last lot ran for the hills).

Therefore, given Erdogan's recent outreach to Russia and Iran (and his post-coup coolness on the US) all the recent tactical moves may well just be an agreed 'checkmate' setup for the Zionist entity in Occupied Palestine (re Syrian Golan Heights).

Posted by: x | Aug 29 2016 11:05 utc | 111

@ Slaboda "What kind of response do you expect? Do you think Russia would shoot U.S. and Turkish planes out of the sky and bomb Turkish forces in Syria?"

Maybe an economic hit similar to the way in which RF responded when its jet was shot down!!! Surely, you remember that. The beauty of the move was that RF didnt need to engage directly let alone militarily to hit Turkey and weaken NATO and the US - it simply hit three Turkish sectors and all hell broke lose in the Turkish business community resulting in Erdogan going tail between his legs back to RF. So, RF has a tried and tested way to hit back....

Yet on the weekend we saw the continuation of the detente agreement between RF and TR ... Meaning RF had the perfect opportunity to hit Turkey hard ... but it did not. Why not?

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 29 2016 11:15 utc | 112

Never really been sure about NEO (New Eastern Outlook) but its worth visiting and this article is one of the more insightful more interesting articles I've read recently. Do I agree with the conclusion?

It's very interesting to note that
a)when screaming about PKK Erdogan has oftwn said recently that Kurds who do not want to be Turkish should 'leave the country' - a strange rhetoric until you read thia article's conclusion.
b)Iran repeatedly talks about an 'end to terrorism regionally' which must surely include the Kurds as terrorists. Maybe they would not object to a Kurdish State - they certainly do not expect to wipe out the Kurdish population regionally!

ww.journal-neo.org/2016/08/28/will-a-kurdish-state-be-born-under-the-guise-of-fighting-isil/

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 29 2016 11:23 utc | 113

Barzani in Ankara to discuss Mosul, Syrian Kurds and Turkey’s Kurdish question

ANKARA, Turkey – The Kurdistan Region’s President Masoud Barzani arrived in Turkey Tuesday afternoon, where he will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim. US Vice President Joe Biden will also cross paths with Barzani in Turkey on Wednesday.

Uncle Sam puts Iraqi Kurds on its payroll

Posted by: somebody | Aug 29 2016 11:34 utc | 114

superb post

here's my take on Reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/504jbh/saudi_arabia_next_to_invade_syria/

more specifically I believe Saudi Arabia will invade Syria next

Posted by: Sanem | Aug 29 2016 11:35 utc | 115

@92

US has no leverage on Erdogan.

Except lots of files about his ties with ISIS.

Erdogan has total leverage over the US as Turkey is essential to NATO.

So maybe Kurdistan will be better as an ally? The US can divide Turkey, Syria and Iraq and then create a formally independent Kurdish state (but de facto dependent on US aid). This is actually happening... Turkey will be divided.

Posted by: some one | Aug 29 2016 12:37 utc | 116

Posted by: some one | Aug 29, 2016 8:37:29 AM | 116

Erdogan has a lot of stuff on the US ....

Posted by: somebody | Aug 29 2016 12:44 utc | 117

@somebody - thanks for the links. Not convinced that Turkey and US driving yet further a wedge into Iraq is the right direction for Iraq. And Barzani is not popluar among Iraqi Kurds - the money will save his butt - not for long however. Barzani's 'experiment' for (Iraqi) Kurdistan is based on Turkish purchase of oil and self-serving power. Far from what we are seeing in Syrian and Turkey's Kurdish communities. Need to get better informed about the Iraqi situation though. (note to self!) :-)

@92 - The US/NATO have substantial levarage over Turkey- Do not kid yourself. Russia too has recently proven to have the same, if not more effective direct economic and regional levwrage.
Turkey is not on some rogue-state go-it-alone rampage

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 29 2016 13:19 utc | 118

Believe it or not ...???
https://friendsofsyria.wordpress.com/2016/08/28/israeli-colonel-caught-with-is-pants-down/

Posted by: x | Aug 29 2016 13:20 utc | 119

@119 No, I don't believe it.

That story has been floating around since at least March 2015.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Aug 29 2016 13:43 utc | 120

Contrary to the article, it is clear that for now the invasion of Jarabulus got some kind of approval of Syria and Russia. The critics are very mild, no call for a UN meeting, no threats. Apparently Turks and Syrians have now the same enemies: the separatists Kurds and ISIS. Yet Syrian has one more: the FSA. Syria will not tolerate that either FSA or Kurds occupy Jarabulus.
For now Syria and Russia are watching the Kurds separatists been put under pressure and looking for a way out. Will they flip and turn to the Syrian army for support against the Turks and the FSA under some deal?
If this happens the Kurds and the Syrian army will make life difficult to the Turks and their FSA in Jarabulus.
Turkey's intention is to use Jarabulus during negotiations where Turkey will impose the FSA. For Syria this is out of the question.
Therefore the Syrians and Russians are certainly trying to lure the Kurds away from the USA into a coalition against the Turks and the FSA.
If they succeed the Turks will be in a very difficult position in Jarabulus.

Posted by: virgile | Aug 29 2016 13:59 utc | 121

Kudos to MofA informed commenters (you know who you are) for their measured assessments of the situation in this thread. I was reading Robert Parry's takedown of the New York Times approach, and strong attempts to rewrite recent history in commentary therein. Seems to be an electoral push hoping to prop up Hillary at this point. (All I can see is the foolish lady with the big red 'reset' button, probably an appropriate representative for the state of US foreign policy, though I do wish we could all decide to vote our better angels and the devil take any lesser evils to his defeated nether regions.)

Stevens@55 had this to say:

" So far not a single hint at reinstating sanctions against Turkey have been made by any Russian official. Just the opposite, all public statements by both Turkey and Russia have indicated a continued warming of relations."

This was my one contributory thought, along with b's 'all is not perhaps what it may seem.'

Thanks to all. Good thread.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 29 2016 14:02 utc | 122

[From Mark Sleboda; To Stratfor] I am an American citizen with six years of advanced military experience as a non-commissioned officer in the nuclear engineering field, two years of professional corporate experience in a technical capacity, and four years experience as a teacher of Business English in Russia. I have a BA (Hons) in International Relations and Political Science and will be graduating in December 2010 from a MSc in International Relations Theory with specialties in Russian and Eurasian Foreign, Security, and Domestic Policy, Security Studies, and the international relations of climate change at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
I believe that Stratfor is the ideal place for me to combine my experience serving in the US military and my postgraduate education in International Relations and Security Studies into a comprehensive whole that will also make me a unique asset to your institution.
https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/10/1040918_research-internship-application-spring-2011-mark-sleboda-.html

Posted by: Diana | Aug 29 2016 14:24 utc | 123

Posted by: virgile | Aug 29, 2016 9:59:34 AM | 121

"US Media claims Russia recruiting so called Moderate opposition"

Russia offers to send ground troops to Syria's Aleppo

Posted by: somebody | Aug 29 2016 14:35 utc | 124

Could this be Russia allowing Turkey to get the Kurds off Assad's back while Russia and SAA deal with ISIS?
Posted by: ruralito | Aug 28, 2016 6:10:00 PM | 57
@82

This is an interesting point. A way of preventing the Kurds from opening up a northeastern front that the SAA simply can't afford. A way of demonstrating to the Kurds that the US will abandon them without warning, that the sovereign syrian state is ultimately in their interests?

We'll see

Posted by: Cresty | Aug 29 2016 14:37 utc | 125

Diana | Aug 29, 2016 10:24:37 AM | 123 thanks for that . Things that make you go MMMMMM . could he be a mole ?

Posted by: Terry | Aug 29 2016 14:47 utc | 126

Well,as an American,reading this stuff just makes me want November here quick,and with Trump as POTUS,we will end this nonsense of Israeli foreign legion garbage of zionist provocation.But of course the PTB want no part of this,and all this crap is probably escalation to set facts that Trump can't reject,BS of intervention.
And Syria,Iraq Turkey etc will have to get along go along wo US divide and conquer.
And the zionist expansion program will end,or they will be eliminated,as only we prevent their being a rational actor in the region by re-enforcing their already hubris filled brains with the might of America.
Beware of foreign entanglements!
Is that an alt right position?sheesh.

Posted by: dahoit | Aug 29 2016 14:50 utc | 127

Like b, the Saker is also confused, punts to and Alexander Mercouris (who includes info from Mark Sleboda): Erdogan Calls Putin as Russia Seethes at Turkey’s Syrian Incursion

In a nutshell: Despite being informed beforehand, Russia is unhappy with the Turkish incursion. The extent and manner of the incursion demonstrates that Turkey is still with the West.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 29 2016 15:22 utc | 128

Diana @ 123

Did anyone notice that on is application Sleboda states that he is a member of Chatham House?

Posted by: Peaches and Apples | Aug 29 2016 15:42 utc | 129

i agree with somebody @ 95 and hoarsewhisperer @97..

@102/109 demeter... i agree with your comments too!

@121 virgile.. good comments.. i tend to see it that way too.. remains to be seen which why all that goes..

@123 diana... isn't stratfor an israeli pys-ops outlet? that's how i always read it..

@129 p and c..chatham house is more of the same as i recall..

Posted by: james | Aug 29 2016 16:03 utc | 130

@128 jr... i think it is too early to tell, but i could be wrong..

Posted by: james | Aug 29 2016 16:05 utc | 132

Mark Sleboda, is an intelligent person. But sadly, he is one of those hot-head Russians who fail to understand the consequence of hot wars, and the wisdom of avoiding them as much as possible. I have always enjoyed his naive analysis of geo-politics on RT. Mark is a Russian neo-con.

Posted by: Steve | Aug 29 2016 16:08 utc | 133

@ redrooster, its obvious Russia gave Turkey green light to invade not (only) the US. Where are the headlines in Russian official propaganda as Rt and Sputnik about Tukish invasion? Nowhere. A total proof, Russia consented with the Turks. If this is because Eruasian integration or not is another matter.

Posted by: Alesh | Aug 29 2016 16:43 utc | 134

@ Diana 123

Yes, if he is a member of Chatham House I will pretty well disregard his analyses from now on. Thanks for posting the application. Sorry to see Mercouris, whom I respect, quoting from him.

Posted by: Peaches and Apples | Aug 29 2016 16:47 utc | 135

JackRabbit @26
You got it, Sleboda is full of bs. Always itching like a Yank.
And after reading...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-29/us-slams-turkish-bombing-american-coalition-partners-unacceptable-and-source-deep-co
...I am calling Horsesheet on Sleboda

Posted by: slirs | Aug 29 2016 16:48 utc | 136

@ Steve, many people including Sleboda are pissed of because Putin didnt march on Kiev while people of Donbas were bleeding and continue to bleed...Its an emotional reaction, you can see clearly. Example: Sleboda states the rat lines to Syria from Turkey have suddenly broadened now because of 50 Turkish tanks around Jarablus??? It only effects the Kurds as its very far from the actual SAA battlefields in Latakia, Idlib, Hama, Aleppo proper....There is enough jihadist infiltration trough Latakia, Idlib and Bab al Hawa, no need for Jarablus. Even if Kurds would capture all the Turkish border would not change much. All the oil ISIS stole in Syria was smuggled to Turkey trough Kurdish territory. Not only Barzani controlled autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan but all along the north Syrian areas including as west as Afreen.

Posted by: Alesh | Aug 29 2016 16:55 utc | 137

@133 steve... read diane's @123... sounds like sleboda ain't even russian, lol..

Posted by: james | Aug 29 2016 17:14 utc | 138

Rockets fired from Syria hit Turkey.

So now they morph Turkey into Israel and Syria into Gaza? But this time NATO helps?

Posted by: jfl | Aug 29 2016 17:35 utc | 139

Russia offers to send ground troops to Aleppo

Posted by: hejiminy cricket | Aug 29 2016 18:06 utc | 141

@141 hj


The offer, submitted to the UN for approval, would be the first deployment of Russian military personnel outside the Hmaymeem military base on the Syrian coast.

Their main focus would be to man military checkpoints, surveillance centres and intelligence units on the Castello Road at the entrance of the ancient city.

Russia wants its troops to control the humanitarian corridors, bringing in UN aid to both rebel-held eastern Aleppo and government-controlled western Aleppo.


If there were such a role to be played I'd nominate China to play it.

Posted by: jfl | Aug 29 2016 18:19 utc | 142

@142

Call their bluff.

Posted by: jfl | Aug 29 2016 18:20 utc | 143

for jackrabbit - US slams Turkey over ‘unacceptable clashes’ with Syria opposition, says they aid ISIS

Posted by: james | Aug 29 2016 18:35 utc | 144

Mark @ 86

The US decline is verifiable. With every year they are getting weaker compared to the rest of the World.

The US is declining as a percentage of the world's economy. The world is growing faster than the US, so the US is becoming less and less relevant than before. China is projected to become the world's largest economy in 2025. This never happened before, with the Soviet Union for example. Even the USSR was only 50 percent of the US economy. For the first time in the last 150 years, the US will not be the world's largest economy. So the decline is real and this is huge.

The decline of Europe and Japan is even faster than that of the US, as their growth rate is even lower than that of the US.

GDP Growth Rate per Year:
World Average - 3 %
USA 2 %
EU 1.5 %
Japan 1 %

The pick of US power was 1945, when it represented half of the worlds economy. In 1960, U.S. GDP represented 40% of global GDP. By 2014, America’s economic contribution had been cut in half, to 22 percent of the worlds economy.

Posted by: Passer by | Aug 29 2016 18:44 utc | 145

2 years already... and the countries where they come from did not deprive them of their citizenship? a djihadist gets 5 years when he gets back to France, and that's it?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3404894/The-saddest-thing-remember-little-girl-12-years-old-raped-without-mercy-Dressed-traditional-wedding-gowns-Yazidi-sex-slaves-relive-torture-ISIS.html

Posted by: Mina | Aug 29 2016 18:45 utc | 146

If there were such a role to be played I'd nominate China to play it.
Posted by: jfl | Aug 29, 2016 2:19:00 PM | 142

-heh heh...yes indeed.

Posted by: hejiminy cricket | Aug 29 2016 18:55 utc | 147

@142 jfl - this was actually the agreement as we heard it a few days ago when the idea was first proposed for the 2-day ceasefires. The Russians offered to supply the manpower to check the convoys, thus relieving the Syrians of the task. Of course all the trolls were jumping on the Russians for "selling out" and caving in to US pressure. Not a bit of it. If there are humanitarian convoys, they will only go to the good Syrian people of Aleppo. Russians will check. That was always part of the deal.

I didn't realize it had gone to the UN. Will the US veto it? ;)

Posted by: Grieved | Aug 29 2016 18:55 utc | 148

I usually come here for insights and alternative analysis and "b" is usually spot on,
but this guest article is absolute crap that has nothing to do with reality on the ground.

Since Turkey downed Russian aircraft Russia imposed a no-fly zone for Turkey over Syria. But now, since Erdogan used the coup (or staged it) he purged the army (which is strongly pro-US) and went fro an open confrontation with the US who support, arm, train and fight alongside the YPG.

Now Erdogan did a U-turn and apologize to Putin, went to Moscow and mended relationship. Russian media makes a u-turn and insinuates that it was the Russians who leaked the info about the coup to Erdogan, kinda saving him. So, all of a sudden Russia and Turkey are BFF. Russia lifts the tourism ban and resumes aviation routes with Turkey and it is agaisnt this backdrop that Turkey invades Syria.

Now it happened just after Biden's hasty visit, which looked like a last ditch attempt to save US-Turkey relationship. Biden was publicly snubbed by Turkey when he wasn't even met by the top officials. The whole US participation in the Turkish operation looks like a desperate attempt to appear in charge, while in reality Turkey, with the full backing of Russia and Syria is attacking the US pawn.

Posted by: tai | Aug 29 2016 19:12 utc | 149

@149 Pretty much how I read things as well..

Posted by: Lozion | Aug 29 2016 19:16 utc | 150


Here is the blistering article from Russia's Kommersant published in English setting out Putin's fury at Erdogan's actions in Syria.

https://www.newcoldwar.org/erdogan-calls-putin-russia-seethes-turkeys-sy...

Posted by: Peaches and Apples | Aug 29 2016 19:57 utc | 151

@151 p and a...."Why are the Russians so angry about the Jarablus operation? Here I acknowledge my heavy debt to the geopolitical analyst Mark Sleboda who over the course of a detailed and very helpful discussion has corrected certain errors I have previously made about the Jarablus operation and has greatly enlarged my understanding of it." Alexander Mercouris.... good to know...

Posted by: james | Aug 29 2016 20:10 utc | 152

Just a question:
Could this be an attempt which ALL parties within this conflict (oddly enough) have agreed upon to get rid of the Alqaida fighters?
Just suppose that even their patrons were forced to recognise that there is no way to secure those far-stretched lines of support from the Turkish border, in other words, the victory is not in Aleppo city but in Aleppo und Idleb countryside. So let us take the parties supporting and entertaining the radical islamist wing of the Syrian civil war are poised to give up on their aim to possibly establish some islamist state(let) there. This refers to SaudiArabia as well as islamist AKP Turkey, and even the Western (&Zionist) backers of these groups are affected by the question: Where do we transfer these people, warriors, bigots, fanatics from all over the world but not the least from exactly those countries that had been supporting them mostly.
Solution of this problem: The offer to be asked to be the "boots of the ground" for a, well, islamic ally who, in turn, finally would give them the full spectrum of military aid they had been missing for so long, airforce, artillery, tanks, intel...
And then they come, in masses, and nobody asks them where they have come from (why not IS, eg.?), no passport needed, nothing, just go and fight. And... meet some resistance in a territory you never have been before... just disappear, melt away, as IS did. End as some anonymous KIA somewehere between some Arab villages, in the middle of nowhere, maybe killed by American special forces, or even your own allies, friendly fire...
When the Turks declare their war on terror finished and pull back their forces incl FSA - who will have counted how many unknown fighters had come?
There will be no Syrian Taliban left.

Could that make sense?

Posted by: franziska | Aug 29 2016 20:38 utc | 153

Diana @123

Thanks for this. Sleboda has been well and truly outed. When I see him on Crosstalk there is always something phony about the guy. He seems emotionally anti-Putin which always makes me suspicious.

Posted by: Lochearn | Aug 29 2016 20:43 utc | 154

@142 jfl & 148 Grieved. As I understand it de-Mistura came to Moscow and said 3 hrs./day cease-fire is not enough. He wanted more. Russia accepted, Russia said they, and Syria, would give 48 hrs./week and they could begin on Monday 22 August. Russia & Syria would agree to the cease-fire but they demanded the U.S. to also agree. Also, there would be checkpoints.

The way I read it is the checkpoints are not to allow humanitarian aid to only reach good or bad people in Aleppo. It was to make sure the aid was humanitarian, food, water, medicine, etc. and not military (or terrorist fighter reinforcements).

That put the 'West' into a corner. That is probably the US Dept. of State spokesperson, when asked about the 48 hr./day cease-fire didn't answer the question. He only said: "It is not enough".

Posted by: Donny | Aug 29 2016 21:09 utc | 155

How long can geopolitical blogs plus resident trolls continue to pretend there is conflict at the top?

All parties are working together, to destroy unrepentent jihadis. Those who don't play along, refusing to join an 'approved' group, will be culled.

The process is on going, with Turks rescuing useful jihadists, while pushing out or killing the rest by agreement with Russia, USA, Syria and Iran amongst others.

Only after ALL semi-independent CIA criminal gangs are ground into Rat meat will the REAL negotiations begin, not long after the US election, at which point the New Fake Cold War + Equally Fake War on 'Terrorism' will be fully institutionalized and used to deprive you of health, wealth and sanity as required by globalizing Zionist gangsters.

For the few who aren't paid trolls...

Smarten up or you will continue to be raped at will by your oppressors.

Posted by: C I eh? | Aug 29 2016 22:35 utc | 156

milomilo | Aug 29, 2016 12:59:32 AM | 93
"What a totally uninformed and biased article , so amateurish and full of bias.. and when the resident trolls agreed with the posts (mark , paul , tom and the rest of WayOutWest's fake accounts) , one's alarm bell should be ringing instantly.."

Completely agree. But, although b says "I can not decide which side has the upper hand. The "west" or Russia and its allies.", maybe he is indulging in a bit of wry humour by publishing a counternarrative that would have the trolls go into full masturbatory mode. The phrase, "Mark's well thought out version above.." is not necessarily a compliment...


Posted by: pm | Aug 29 2016 22:48 utc | 157

..chatham house is more of the same as i recall..

Posted by: james

james james my boy
james do not talk of chatham house
have you never heard of the chatham house rules already.
those are the rothschild rules.
what happens in chatham house stays in chatham house
but you know that i am sure.

chatham house is the base
the ideas belly of the beast.
brookings,royal united service institute countless other groupings.
chatham house talked of squeezing assad in 2003.
rothschild creature.
killery clinton got a ticket for parking outside last year.
if you want to know future country takedowns chatham house is the ideas talking shop.
satanists,catholics meet to be lectured by the zionists for oded yinon

Posted by: charles drake | Aug 30 2016 0:31 utc | 158

I reiterate. It is wise to reserve judgement on this latest Turkish move. For starters, Turkey's attack on Kurds is helping Assad by obstructing their independence movement, a movement supported and facilitated via US support and US bases and special ops in Kurdish territory. There is no way, Assad could open another front against the Kurds and we all knew that was coming, especially considering gains in and around Aleppo.

As for ISIS and Al Nusra, etc, Turkey's best option with these nuts is to let the Syrian gov and Russians Kill them. Why would Turkey want to start a fight within Turkey with Jihadist incorporated? Yes the Turkish military could squash them but they would be unable to stop terrorism against Turkey.

I for one do not trust Erdogan but, again, the threat of and US support for a Kurdish state is a major problem between Turkey and the US/neocons/zionists. Erdogan is not going to run out and say I'm allied with Russia. That would be positively idiotic as it would paint a bullseye on his back and because Turkey has lots of economic ties with the EU. Erdogan's best avenue is to play both sides which means he cannot be trusted but that doesn't make him a NATO stooge.

Posted by: alaric | Aug 30 2016 1:42 utc | 159

Reading Obama’s Imperial Mideast Policy Unravels, which actually adds not much new but its overt perspective, I was struck with the image of the Ottoman Empire ... not Erdogan's fancied reincarnation of same but Obama's USA : the Sick Man of the Western World. Obama is the Sultan of the fractured and fractious Western Ottoman - as in footstool - Empire, temporizing, trying just to hold together the status quo ...


in Obama’s hands, it has come to mean something different: an endless attempt to satisfy conflicting demands by a growing number of client states.

The states include not just Turkey but Israel, the Persian Gulf oil sheikdoms, plus the dozen East European states that have entered NATO since 1999. If America were an old-fashioned empire, it would issue orders and expect such dependents to fall into line. But as a “democratic” empire, it relies on cajoling, bargaining, and other inducements to achieve “voluntary” consent.

But this has grown increasingly difficult as the web of alliances has expanded. Not only have members grown more fractious and divided, but the original raison d’être – countering the Soviet Union – has faded from view. The upshot is a ramshackle arrangement whose existence is its sole justification and which the U.S. labors to keep afloat simply because that’s what global hegemons do.


The author's "democratic' empire is his euphemism for weak empire. Turkey has directly defied the USA and the USA has fallen in line behind Turkey. It's not just Obama, Clinton will do the same thing when 'challenged' by Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia ... when will the NATO nations pile on? After the twilight of Merkel and the imported American gods?

The USA is the Sick Man of the West. It is being sucked into the vacuum of its own collapse.

The Turkish invasion of Syria is interesting because it will be the first of all the rest of the upcoming crises over which the USA will have no control. New pecking orders will be worked out. New alliances formed. A New World Order created out of multiple sub orders. The jostling will be below the global level, and the global level will end up as more than the sum of its parts, rather than the lessor sum as it has degenerated to under the sick, clutching, misdirection of neo-con Washington DC.

Posted by: jfl | Aug 30 2016 2:12 utc | 160

@160 And the MSM will continue to spin every crisis into a win. Eventually they will be playing to an empty house.

Posted by: dh | Aug 30 2016 2:23 utc | 161

@161 dh

As b keeps pointing out with his snips from the NYimes ... they're already playing to an empty house. b is just covering that fact. And in so doing making the rest of us aware of the echo du jour of its solipsistic performance. Without b's coverage all those trees felled in the woods for newsprint - now perhaps, the greatest crime of which the erstwhile 'big time' disinformist Sulzberger is capable - would make no sound at all.

Posted by: jfl | Aug 30 2016 2:43 utc | 162

Is Slaboda baiting Putin? I don't know. However:

1) with 3 weeks before Russian elections, this makes a good time to do so; and

2) over-reaction by Putin would tend to help Hillary (October surprise).

But baiting (by anyone) would be futile if the Turks are behaving as agreed and expected by Russia/Putin. Mercouris isn't not baiting and believes that the Russians are peeved.

I imagine we will know where Turkey stands soon.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 30 2016 2:55 utc | 163

@jackrabbit

i see you still spreading the 'coup is fake' meme in almost every post , cleverly weaving it among the obvious trolls like tom / mark / paul and other wayoutwest's alternate characters..

i saw a lot of bloggers putting the same 'coup is fake' meme , including the MSM.. totally disregarding the fact on the ground that it was russia and iran that congratulate erdogan on the failure of the coup and the venomous comments by EU officials and US Media regarding the coup , as if it is a drama staged by erdogan himself..

where's the rage of the world's media when turkish soldier shot at unarmed protester , or when their tank running over cars ?

it is common tactics on the paid trolls to have tag team working a blog site , first team is the obvious trolls like wayoutwest, tom , mark , paul and other obvious fakes here.. and the 2nd is sophisticated troll who politely and slowly injecting MSM narratives in his creative ways..

this is not the first time i saw the tag team paid trolls working together to influence a blogsite.. and certainly wont be the last..

at worst you are just a long time paid troll / DOD employee tasked with Social Media influence peddler , at best you are just useful idiot totally delusional and believing in Western MSM lies..

Posted by: milomilo | Aug 30 2016 5:43 utc | 164

Could this be an attempt which ALL parties within this conflict (oddly enough) have agreed upon to get rid of the Alqaida fighters?
Just suppose that even their patrons were forced to recognise that there is no way to secure those far-stretched lines of support from the Turkish border, in other words, the victory is not in Aleppo city but in Aleppo und Idleb countryside.
...
Posted by: franziska | Aug 29, 2016 4:38:20 PM | 153

Interesting speculation. Judging by all the angst and sour grapes from the Axis of Colonialism, something's got the Vampires livid.
Perhaps, as many hoped, a Russian presence on the Road to Damascus transforms it into a dead end for anyone with unsavoury intentions?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 30 2016 6:40 utc | 165

Just add Israel and the Golan Heights.
quote:

“The Syrian government calls on UN Security council to assume its responsibilities in preserving the international peace and security, and to call on Turkey to immediately withdraw from the Syrian territories, and to respect sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria,” added the letter.

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/syrias-fm-supporting-turkey-supporting-terrorism/

Posted by: x | Aug 30 2016 6:45 utc | 166

SyrPer criticizes Turkish attack against PYD
The US asks the Turks to stop immediately
French MSM are very mild on the whole topic.
#Qatarconnection?

Posted by: Mina | Aug 30 2016 9:37 utc | 167

Posted by: Mina | Aug 30, 2016 5:37:26 AM | 167

France has been next to Turkey the main ISIS target recently. I guess part of the deal is that Turkey does get rid of them.

Posted by: somebody | Aug 30 2016 9:58 utc | 168

Posted by: somebody | Aug 30, 2016 5:58:43 AM | 168

add

The role of Algeria in this context is interesting.

Flashback - 1995 Paris Métro and RER bombings

Posted by: somebody | Aug 30 2016 10:07 utc | 169

The planned destabilization of Mali and Algeria - why the French acted unilaterally

Posted by: somebody | Aug 30 2016 10:21 utc | 170

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/08/30/putin-and-erdogan-have-agreed-on-a-restricted-road-map-in-syria-the-kurds-and-nusra-will-be-the-main-losers/

Interesting part:

"Turkey agreed to avoid any contact or clash with the Syrian army, mainly around Aleppo, in support of the Syrian rebels and jihadists. This is leaving (ex) Nusra almost alone with minor groups around Aleppo, Ramouseh and the academies, offering a perfect target to the Russian Air Force, and the US, if willing to act in partnership, since jihadists are left alone on that front.

Turkey succeeded in benefitting from Washington’s blessing to engage its forces in Syria after five years of objection and rejection of a most wished no-fly-zone. Erdogan was carrying a sharp knife, blackmailing a US concerned that the Turkish president may fall into the arms of Russia, which would represent a threat to the NATO alliance. Erdogan was due to be pleased by the US to divert attention from the role he is unwittingly claiming that the US played and was not far from orchestrating the failed coup last July.

Moscow informed Damascus of the Turkish plan, despite denial and contested positions through its Foreign Ministry expressed overtly against the intervention o the Turkish forces on its soil. Turkey was officially using its right to “go after the PKK Kurds according to the 1999 Adana agreement with Damascus”. Moreover, Turkey was chasing ISIS from the north of Syria, an area that neither Damascus nor its close allies on the ground were willing to engage at any time in the future. Russia is aware that the Syrian Army, Iran proxies (Afghan, Pakistani and Iraqi) and Hezbollah have no intention of pushing their forces toward Jarablus, al-Bab or even Raqqa itself, ISIS’s stronghold.

Russia made it clear to Turkey that it will not tolerate any infringement of the agreement or any clash with the Syrian Army drawing clear redlines, and threatening that its Air Force will hit the Turkish forces and its proxies in case of any similar violation.

Russia has advised Syria to avoid any official objection and condemnation deposited at the United Nations Security Council related to the presence of Turkish troops on its soil. Turkey is protecting its national interest, preventing the partition of Syria, a possible domestic Kurdish uprising and a Rojava state on its border, and eliminating a future permanent foothold of US forces in Syria.

Moscow told Damascus “Turkey is willing to cut the Kurds’ toenails, they who believed the US is carrying a magic wand and could offer them a state in Syria without any objection or reactions. The YPG have no previous experience with American forces that can abandon them when US interests with Turkey prevails, despite hundreds of Kurds being killed on the battlefield against ISIS”.

Posted by: nameisname | Aug 30 2016 10:27 utc | 171

I keep seeing idiots saying when HRC is POTUS next year?
How are we supposed to believe their tome if they can't read the actual tea leaves that say Trump in a landslide?
Is it blind surrender,or is it my blind faith?I go for the former.

Posted by: dahoit | Aug 30 2016 12:42 utc | 172

Sleboda: "The Kurdish YPG/SDF have proven that they have become nothing but lickspittle currs for the U.S., despite being betrayed, dutifully responding to the leash and withdrawing from Manbij which they bled for".

A digusting comment from an armchair theorist who occupies a swivel-chair in Moscow.
Especially as he excuses Russia's muted response with a glib
"What kind of response do you expect?"

Besides which, it's totally inaccurate.

Posted by: prianikoff | Aug 30 2016 13:09 utc | 173

As I wrote before - everything's according to the plan, things going well.

Russia and Syria are faking their "outrage" whereas Turkey is fulfilling its obligation to contain neolibcon-controlled Kurdish groups like YPD/PKK playing "the bad cop" role, thus saving Russia's and Syria's image.

That's perfectly fine by me.

I did not want to write about it to avoid making the enemy aware but apparently some of the commenters here have also seen through this game, so there is no more point in hiding the truth.

Yes, Russia and her allies are playing "dirty" but only because masses of millions dimwits, selfish "useless eaters", uneducated primitives, misfits, or educated "useful idiots", brainless zombies, about 40% of the society, are still supporting the Matrix of lies constructed by the masters of the global evil empire.

Speaking of supporting the empire - so much more can be done everyday beyond excessive, pointless speculations about the US elections: boycotting the big, wealthy interests of the "owners" of the Western Society (like George Carlin called them), and the "regular" people who support them.

Kudos e.g. to the German people switching from Fecesbrook to VK.

The fight is fought everyday, not just during the (s)elections.

Posted by: ProPeace | Aug 30 2016 14:02 utc | 174

@174 'Kudos e.g. to the German people switching from Fecesbrook to VK.'

They are doing it to avoid censorship...

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/08/24/germans-flee-russian-facebook-avoid-censorship/

Posted by: dh | Aug 30 2016 14:27 utc | 175

milomilo @164

Troll?
I am not a troll, and certainly not a paid one. No one pays for the anti-establishment positions that I have taken! If you have followed what I have written at MoA then you would know this.

And I was a long-time commentator at nakedcapitalism.com before MoA but was banned because I thought that Yves was being too critical of the Greeks during the GRexit crisis last year (she said at one point that she would not have resisted the Troika at all - even though Syriza was elected to do just that!).

I have been very critical of Obama, neocons, neolibs, Hillary, oligarchs, and more.

The attempted coup in Turkey
Only TWO interpretations of the attempted coup are generally considered:

Erdogan's view
Gulenist-inspired and probably US-supported. The quick failure of the coup - despite the strength of those supporting it - is attributed to its being rushed in anticipation of a 'purge' by Erdogan.

The US view
Erdogan orchestrated it or had advance warning and allowed it to happen.

The possibility that US/CIA helped Erdogan in #2 is not considered. The only one raising that possibility seems to be me. I have explained my reasons for doing so (see prior comments under this post).

I think we will soon know where Erdogan's loyalty lies. If he has really pivoted, then the war is probably over.

But I don't think the view that Erdogan is playing both sides makes any sense. Why would he antagonize the Russians if the Americans just supported (directly or indirectly) a coup against him? "Playing both sides" seems to be just another excuse in a long line of excuses since the coup. It's that kind of thing that makes me suspicious and skeptical.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 30 2016 15:06 utc | 176

Jackrabbit says:

The possibility that US/CIA helped Erdogan in #2 is not considered. The only one raising that possibility seems to be me

Prof Michel Chossudovsky seems to be considering it.

Posted by: john | Aug 30 2016 15:31 utc | 177

For ppl complaining of trolls: if you had enough time to read all the comments and find trolling in it, you probably know now how to use Ctrl + F and find directly the posters you want to read?

Posted by: Mina | Aug 30 2016 15:48 utc | 178

john @177

Thanks!

I should've noted that in his August xx post "How The Hasakah Clashes End The Kurdish Nation Dreams" b included the following cautionary note (in bold!):

Unfortunately we do not know if this is meant seriously or just another Turkish diversion from more nefarious plans.

I'm not sure if he added this because of my complaining about the possibility of a US-Turkey fake coup/fake distancing or if he had his own reasons for being suspicious.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 30 2016 16:28 utc | 179

August 21st

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 30 2016 16:30 utc | 180

@Jackrabbit 179

Tony Cartalucci also smelled a rat and thought US and Turkey colluded in the "coup". I did think it seemed very staged.

http://landdestroyer.blogspot.lu/2016/07/turkeys-failed-coup-gift-from-god-or.html

Apologies if this has already been posted - it was written shortly after the event.

Posted by: Peaches and Apples | Aug 30 2016 18:24 utc | 181

I am pulling this link over from Syrian Perspective. It is from a Lebanese newspaper. Says a deal has been struck. Turkey gets control over Kurds, Syria gets Allepo. FWIW:

https://yallalabarra.wordpress.com/2016/08/30/damascus-and-ankara-strike-a-deal-erdogan-gets-the-kurds-and-assad-gets-aleppo/

Posted by: Peaches and Apples | Aug 30 2016 18:51 utc | 182

And I naively thought that all Sufis are ok...

China and Syria, by Thierry Meyssan


Although the visit to Syria by Admiral Guan Youfei (head of the new Chinese Office for International Military Cooperation) was made in the context of a meeting with all of the countries in the region, it has caused some anxiety in the West. For the moment, according to the signed agreement, the Chinese Army has simply agreed to train, in China, Syrian soldiers from the Medical Services. However, everyone understands that this agreement hides something else, since for the last four years, half of Syria’s military doctors have been trained in China. Although we do not know what has really been decided, the existence of the agreement marks a change of strategy.

Indeed, over the last five years, the Peoples’ Republic of China has refused to engage in any form of cooperation which could be interpreted by Washington as military aid. Thus, it has not only refused to deliver weapons, but also civil materials which are indispensable for this war, such as tunnel detectors.

Independent of the very important economic assistance offered by Beijing, everyone will remember that Russia had concluded an identical agreement with Syria at the beginning of 2012, prefiguring its military assistance three and a half years later. So is China also preparing to deploy?

It is probable that the answer will depend on the speed of US deployment in the China Sea and the provocations by Washington’s allies in the region.

China’s interest in Syria dates from Antiquity and the Middle Ages. The Silk Road crossed Central Asia, passing through Palmyra and Damascus before turning towards Tyre and Antioch. There are very few traces left of this ancient commercial cooperation except for the Pagoda still visible in the mosaics of the Umayyad Mosque, or the Great Mosque of Damascus. President Xi made the restoration of this line of communication (and the creation of a second road through Siberia and Europe) the main objective of his mandate.

Beijing’s other main interest is the struggle of the Islamic Party of Turkestan, which joined al-Qaïda, then Daesh. Today there is a Uyghur neighbourhood in Ar-Raqqah, and Daesh publishes a newspaper especially for its members.

The members of this group are connected to the Naqshbandi Order, a Sufi congregation of which the ex-Grand Mufti of Syria, Ahmad Kuftaru, was the leader. Certain lodges of this order connected with the Muslim Brotherhood in 1961, under the influence of the Anglo-Saxon secret services, CIA and MI6. They participated in the creation of the Muslim World League by Saudi Arabia, in 1962. In Iraq, they organised around Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, and supported the attempted coup d’état by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in 1982. In 2014, they sent 80,000 combatants to swell the ranks of Daesh. In Turkey, the Naqchbandis created Millî Görüş of which Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was one of the heads. It was this group who, in the 1990’s, organised Islamist movements in the Russian Caucasus and the Xinjiang region of China.

Even more than the Russians, the Chinese need intelligence about this network, and how it is controlled by Washington and London. In 2001, they believed – wrongly – that the Anglo-Saxons had changed after the attacks of 11 September, and that they would collaborate with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to fight terrorism. They know today that Syria is an authentic friend in peace.

Posted by: ProPeace | Aug 30 2016 19:41 utc | 183

Don't forget about China being a HUGE ally of Russia...and they are gradually getting pulled into this mess as well....I predict WW3 by the latest in 2017 or 2018 and US/Nato WIll lose....China has a superior army, Russia has superior machinery...together they will kick our ASSES!

Posted by: james | Aug 30 2016 21:50 utc | 184

@183
Interesting.
Certainly J.G.Bennett (of the Gurdjieff Brigade) would be one of these MI6 players.
For good, or otherwise...?
Still, I can't quite relate the Naqshbandi Order with head-choppers and liver eaters...

Posted by: x | Aug 31 2016 1:38 utc | 185

This has always been a goal of Erdogan's since his biggest concern/fear has been the Kurds setting up an independent state on Turkey's southern border while it struggles to contain the PKK inside of Turkey. He had been planning this for years and America was not willing to give him the go ahead and support him.

Without that promise of support, he was very likely looking at Russian bombing any sort of force they sent into Syria. he played the game and danced with Russia and Iran after the failed coup attempt that no doubt he knows the CIA was behind.

This gave him the leverage he needed for US support of him capturing these villages. The US wasnt about to let Erdogan grow too close to Russia

Those criticizing Putin need to understand that there's a limit to how far he or anyone can go to defend Syria. Is it worth WW3? To him no its not. Russia might be vastly improved militarily over the last decade, but they still cant take on all of NATO. Their military budget is probably less than a 10th of America's military budget.

Russian armed forces seem to be built with defense of their territory as opposed to the US militarily which is built to project and maintain forces anywhere in the world. You probably couldn't invade Russia even with all the countries of NATO attacking due to the advanced weapons systems inside that country.

Erdogan is alot of lousy things but hes also not stupid. This move was calculated and its extremely bad news for Syria. Even if Assad wiped out all the terrorists inside Syria (i wish), Turkey is not going to relinquish those cities just so Assad can give them back to the Kurds once that war is over. ISIS will be allowed to come and go and re supply now because Turkey will brand them as "FSA". Its bad news

Posted by: Dan801 | Aug 31 2016 15:04 utc | 186

Andrew Korybko's take: Russia, Iran, and Syria all realize that the SAA can't recover all of Syria's territory in time for the upcoming negotiations.

Turkey In Syria, The FSA, And The Upcoming Quarrel Over Syria’s Constitution

Posted by: Demian | Aug 31 2016 18:52 utc | 187

' and you can be sure Putin will clear the fuck out if Washington asks him to (doesn't want to upset his Partners).

As Sleboda notes, when NATO is finally ready sink their fangs into Russia itself, no one will care.

Posted by: Mark | Aug 28, 2016 1:53:42 PM | 3

what a lot of nonsense....Putin will do what?

Posted by: brian | Sep 1 2016 16:01 utc | 188

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