Turkey is on its way to change its foreign policy orientation. Instead of facing "west" towards NATO and the pipe dream of European Union membership, it is looking "east" towards tighter cooperation with Russia, China and Iran. It will also want to intensify its already developed relations with the Central-Asian states Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.

To cover the move, which began before the recent military coup attempt, the Turkish government needs some plausible excuses. The "guilty" party that justifies the change should not be itself but, preferably, its "western partners".

That the coup is probably related to covered activities of the Gülen movement in Turkey is a welcome gift. Turkey is convinced that the U.S. had some hand in the coup, or at least knew about it before it happened but did not warn Ankara. That the coup is U.S. related is not just a conspiracy theory without any basis. The tanker airplanes which filled up the F-16 bombers which bombed the parliament during the coup started from the NATO airbase in Incirlik where the U.S. command for the war on Syria is seated. Three of the five regiments involved in the coup in Istanbul are part of NATO's Rapid Deployable Corps. One of the coup commanders is the head of the Turkish second army which is coordinating the war on Syria (and ISIS) with the U.S. military.

Another signs for U.S. culpability, from the Turkish perspective, is the mealymouthed first statement Secretary of State Kerry gave when the coup was happening. From my live blogging of the coup before it started to fail:

Journo at ongoing Lavrov & Kerry press conference: "France, Belgium told their citizen in Turkey to stay at home." Lavrov: "Russian citizens should too."

2:11 PM – 15 Jul 2016 Talking Points Memo @TPM

#BREAKING John Kerry says he hopes for stability in Turkey as coup apparently under way http://bit.ly/29WqHS6

"Stability" – that's pro military coup talk …

Kerry spoke diplomatese in support of the ongoing coup. Demanding "stability" instead of "democracy" or "respect of the legitimate government" was unlike to deter the coup plotters. "Stability", under their control, was their announced aim.

Today the Washington Post published an OpEd that seems to call for a new coup in Turkey. It gives advice on how to avoid the mistakes of the failed one.Turks will see this as still ongoing U.S. plotting:

In Turkey, the coup plotters did not wait for a contentious election or a wave of popular discontent. Perhaps more patient and strategic organizers would have fared better.

The Turkish Sufi cult leader and preacher Fethullah Gülen resides in Pennsylvania from where he controls his world wide charter school empire and network. Gülen is rumored to be under control of the CIA. Two former high ranking CIA officers gave supporting statements for him in the 1990s when he requested residency in the U.S.

Turkey now demands Gülen's extradition. The evidence Turkey is giving for his culpability in the coup consists mostly of confessions of involved officers. These were given under somewhat coerced conditions. They are unlikely to be sufficient to convince the various interest groups in the U.S. to allow Gülen's extradition.

But that would fit Turkey's plans well. Should the U.S. not response positively to the request, Turkey will have good reason to lower its relation with the U.S. and with NATO. The Turkish Foreign Minister just called again for Gülen's fast extradition. Displaying national unity the leader of the opposition CHP party issued the same demand. This is thereby not just some crazy Erdogan buffoonery,  but a request of the Turkish people. The U.S. will try to drag the issue out, but when even the Turkish opposition stands behind the demand it has little room to wiggle.

My prediction is that the U.S. will reject any extradition and that Turkey will use that to justify less amicable relations.

On the other side of the foreign policy turn are Russia and Iran. Both took an early and strong stand against the coup. Turkey explicitly thanked the Russian president Putin for his unconditioned support against the coup. (Unconfirmed reports claim that Russia warned the Turkish government hours before the coup happened.) The Turkish President Erdogan will meet Putin in person on August 5. Turkey wants to "take relations with Russia to new level."

The Turkish ambassador in Tehran hailed Iran's support against the coup.

As precondition for better relations Russia (and Iran) demand that Turkey stops its support for Jihadists rebels in Syria. According to the Economist, Turkey is complying with that:

As Mr Erdogan focuses on the enemy within, he has tried to batten down what hatches he can, periodically closing the Bab al-Hawa border crossing, hitherto the prime supply route to Syria’s Sunni opposition-held territory.
…
A few rebels argue that as part of his counter-coup Mr Erdogan might yet project his Sunni triumphalism abroad and come to their rescue. But among exiled leaders in Gaziantep and the Americans co-ordinating their logistical backup, the mood is one of despondency. “It’s game over [for Syria’s rebels] already,” says one.

Also this from the Financial Times:

Syrian rebels said last week they noticed a drift in Ankara’s attention […] Turkey was inactive as rebels struggled. […] Usually, the Turks would be checking in a lot, meeting with commanders and making sure everyone is doing their jobs.

A split over Gülen with the U.S., better relations with Russia and Iran and less support for the Syrian "rebels" – Turkey's foreign policy change is well underway.

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Al-Qaeda in Syria, known under the name Jabhat al-Nusra, has been fearing a tighter cooperation between Russia and the U.S. and an extensive bombing campaign against it (as demanded by two UNSC resolutions.) To avoid the damage, al-Qaeda is trying to trick the public.

Jabhat al-Nusra will rename itself to Jabhat Fath al Sham and will publicly reject all ties to al-Qaeda central (though not its aims). Jabhat al-Nusra has about 5,000 fighters, a third of which are foreigners. The group hopes that this move is enough to no longer be designated by the UN and the U.S. as "terrorist organization" and instead to be recognized as "moderate rebels". These fall under a ceasefire Russia and the U.S. had agreed upon. Jabhat's Gulf state sponsors had pressed for such a step for some time. One wonders what promises the U.S. made to further the move.

Will the Obama administration accept this fake name-change and defend it? Will it ask Russia to stop attacks on the newly disguised al-Qaeda? That would be highly embarrassing in my view. But as the U.S. is even defending its support for "moderate rebels" who behead sick children, it might as well openly support a slightly renamed al-Qaeda.