Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 16, 2016

Coup Against Wannabe-Sultan Failed - Beware The Aftermath

(Please also read the updated tweets below. There are some very interesting nuggets in there that are not yet reflected in the text.)

Yesterday's short coup attempt (real time MoA) by parts of the military against the wannabe-Sultan of Turkey failed. Some 200 people on both sides were killed, some 1,200 wounded.

The plotters' major mistakes were:

  • to not capture Erdogan and the leaders of his political and security organizations,
  • to not shut down all means of mass communication, especially the Internet, except those under their strict control,
  • to not put out a trusted public face to represent the coup.

Erdogan escaped and could orchestrate the counter to the coup. He could continue to communicate with his security management, foreign politicians and his supporters. Without any well known alternative leader the public had only Erdogan to follow.

The amateurish behavior of the coup plotter opens the question of who ran this show. Was this, as some asserted early on, an Erdogan plot to seize more power?

There are three possible motives/perpetrators behind this coup:

  • the Islamic movement following the preacher Fetullah Gülen, a former Erdogan ally and now arch-enemy who lives in the U.S. and has CIA relations;
  • the old Kemalist secularist movement in the military and deep state;
  • the Erdogan AKP movement in a false flag operation to seize more power;

There is no evidence for any of these theses and none of them clearly fits the observed pattern.

The response will be harsh. Edogan will crack down on ANYONE he politically or personally dislikes - completely independent of their involvement in the coup. All political parties, even the mostly Kurdish HDP, spoke out against the coup while it was ongoing. The religious Gülen movement also opposed it. Most of the involved soldiers were told that they were part of an exercise. It will not save any of them from Erdogan's and his supporters' wrath.

The somewhat coup-supportive early statements from Lavrov ("avoid bloodshed") and Kerry ("stability!") will increase Erdogan's mistrust of any foreign official.

Erdogan will now become even more paranoid and unpredictable than he was before. The domestic atmosphere in Turkey will become extremely strained.

A few relevant recent tweets (see last post for many earlier ones):

5:36 PM - 15 Jul 2016 chinahand @chinahand

I'll put on my tinfoil hat re TK. What kind of coup waits til bossman's out of town & doesn't try to detain him? & AKP has plenty of

@chinahand diehard para-fash assets that wud hit streets immediately on its behalf. No plan to counter that? #WorstCoupEver I suspect

@chinahand TRE knew about the plot, made sure it would fail w/ help of loyal officers pretending to be part of it, & let it go ahead.

@chinahand now time to clean up the (extremely messy) mess & take out the trash, methinks

6:24 PM - 15 Jul 2016 ilhan tanir @WashingtonPoint

Pres Erdoğan says this is an opportunity presented by God to clean up Turkish Military . #live press conference

9:12 PM - 15 Jul 2016 (((Garrett Khoury))) @KhouryGarrett

Turkey: Erdogan confirms coup forces surrounded his hotel in Marmaris...4 hours after he had left. That's a special sort of ineptitude.

10:13 PM - 15 Jul 2016 ilhan tanir @WashingtonPoint

Turkish Army Forces published its last memo at 6.50 am local (90 mins ago) saying “movement continues"

9:45 PM - 15 Jul 2016 i24NEWS English @i24NEWS_EN

#BREAKING 754 members of Turkish armed forces arrested across Turkey: state news agency

11:17 PM - 15 Jul 2016 Mustafa Akyol @AkyolinEnglish

This #turkeycoupattempt had not much to do with “Islamist-vs-secularists.” Secular opposition sided with the govt against the putschists.

11:39 PM - 15 Jul 2016 Nasser Atta @nasseratta5

Number of detained military personnel after #Turkish coup attempt rises to 1,563 across country: official

11:48 PM - 15 Jul 2016 Alev Scott @AlevScott

Erdogan denouncing "traitors" on state TV channel, which a few hours ago was hijacked by the military denouncing him pic.twitter.com/j30UiQ3jau

11:53 PM - 15 Jul 2016 Gregory Djerejian @GregDjerejian

If you thought Erdoğan was becoming overly authoritarian bordering on some neo-Sultan or such oh boy just you wait now post-aborted putsch.

1:05 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Asaf Ronel @AsafRonel

Turkey's acting army chief of staff: Coup attempt was rejected by chain of command immediately.

General Dundar: We'll continue to serve the people. I would like 2 thank all political parties and the media for their support for democracy

More: "The armed forces is determined to remove members of the Gulen movement from its ranks"

1:32 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Frank Nordhausen @NordhausenFrank

#Turkey This was a weird coup. I was on Taksim square 3 hours, my impression was: that's not real. I saw military in Cairo - no comparison.

1:38 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai

Despite results in #Turkey, Erdogan will be very busy internally, reforming, reshuffling, turing the army upside-down.His throne has shaken.

1:42 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai

When the coup was taking over, the #USA embassy called the coup "Turkish uprising". #Turkey. pic.twitter.com/dEcWvXsLYd

2:43 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai

Jabhat al-Nusra #AQ spiritual scholar al-Maqdisi attacked the Turkish Army responsible of the coup as "anti-Islamic" pic.twitter.com/UlKrbX5gaS

3:03 AM - 16 Jul 2016 @dr_davidson

After digesting #TurkeyCoup news, my view is Erdogan's agents in military forewarned him, & there were considerable benefits allowing it 1/3

Erdogan has big opportunities to purge military (think Sadat's 'corrective revolution') & claim supra-electoral nation-saviour status. 2/3

The question is which allies Erodgan decided to keep in loop. If none, then Qatar, MB & fellow travellers will have had disturbed night 3/3

3:35 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Aylina Kılıç @AylinaKilic

Ahrar al-Sham publishes support message for Turkish government for coup attempt in #Turkey, citing "democracy first"

4:46 AM - 16 Jul 2016 DAILY SABAH @DailySabah

BREAKING - Turkey’s top judicial body HSYK lays off 2,745 judges after extraordinary meeting sabahdai.ly/GSnzF0

Interesting how fast they drew up that list. This move was long planned and may have been a reason for the coup. See below.

5:27 AM - 16 Jul 2016 archicivilians @archicivilians

Free Syrian Army (#Syria Opposition ) released a statement congradulating the fail of #TurkeyCoupAttempt. pic.twitter.com/8S

5:28 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Hussain AbdulHussain @hahussain

In 24 hours of news coverage of #Turkey, in all the military and the civilians who took to streets to restore democracy, not a single woman

5:35 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Reuters World @ReutersWorld

Turkish PM: Any country that stands by cleric Gulen will be at war with Turkey reut.rs/29KtlNW pic.twitter.com/VJcTrtVi6M

That is a direct Erdogan threat to the U.S. where Gülen lives.

5:48 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Émad @EMostaque

Noted yesterday imminent big changes in judiciary by HSYK may have been key catalyst for coup, now accelerated

2:54 PM - 15 Jul 2016 Émad @EMostaque

Proximate causes for #TurkeyCoup may have been recent reorganisation of judiciary as well as Ataturk attack

5:50 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Kayode Odeyemi @kayodeyemi

Power to Turkey's Incirlik Air Base, which is used by U.S. to launch airstrikes against #ISIS, has been cut, U.S. consulate in #Turkey says

earlier

3:41 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Putintintin @putintintin1

Turkey jets which bombed #Ankara refilled from fuel tankers took off from Incirlik airbase!!

Consider: Erdogan demands that U.S. delivers Gülen to him (without evidence of coup relations). Erdogan isolates major U.S. base (with nukes) in Turkey. This could get VERY interesting ...

5:57 AM - 16 Jul 2016 ilhan tanir @WashingtonPoint

10 State Council, top court members are detained allegedly for having ties to failed coup attempt.

6:32 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Ragıp Soylu @ragipsoylu

Journalist @sahmetsahmet says police was to arrest coup leaders yesterday before they mobilise, that led the coup pic.twitter.com/UdXViNUf1V

7:16 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Liam Stack @liamstack

John Kerry on the Turkey coup: "I must say it does not appear to be a very brilliantly planned or executed event." nytimes.com/live/turkey-co…

7:18 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Ellie Geranmayeh @EllieGeranmayeh Speculations flowing in #Istanbul re #TurkeyCoup linked to annual military meeting in Aug where gov plan to purge Gulenist soldiers (leaked)
7:19 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai

Elijah J. Magnier Retweeted Marianne

Imposing Sharia punishment on soldiers in #Turkey for their failed coup
[pic showing bearded Erdoganists whipping soldiers in the street after they surrendered]

8:24 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Jim Colella @Jim_Colella

Reports today of 2745 judges removed after last night's #TurkeyCoupAttempt. Wtf? How's that related? Watch all that happens next.

+ 5 judges frm top judicial appointment body (HSYK) dismissed. 48 Council of State judges detained. 140 arrest warrants 4 Supreme Ct Appeal

9:15 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Asaf Ronel @AsafRonel

there's a report saying a anti-Gulen operation was in final stages & ignited the coup attempt - the lists were ready

9:15 AM - 16 Jul 2016 ilhan tanir @WashingtonPoint

Constitutional Court (US-Supreme Court) member Alparslan Altan, VP at highest court appointed by A.Gul, is detained.

9:46 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Mete Sohtaoğlu @metesohtaoglu

Four #Turkish parties make rare joint statement against coup attempt
#TurkeyCoupAttempt #AKP #CHP #MHP #HDP pic.twitter.com/UOBTU339uT

9:59 AM - 16 Jul 2016 The Truth @JunkTruth

Did @BarackObama know of and approve the #TurkeyCoup? Turkey's Patriotic Party says CIA is behind Gulen coup: pic.twitter.com/HoAhPBKuBg

see pic-link above - interesting read

10:08pm · 16 Jul 2016 Gissur Simonarson CN @GissiSim

“Pro-Democracy” protesters who lynched soldiers to death display “Grey Wolves” hand signals over dead bodies #Turkey

10:10pm · 16 Jul 2016 Turkey Untold @TurkeyUntold

BREAKING: Secretary of Labor Süleyman Soylu live on news channel Haberturk: "The US is behind this coup" pic.twitter.com/khqdbUw7re

10:12 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Asaf Ronel @AsafRonel

Turkish official confirms authorities found coup-plan lists saying which officers will be governors, heads of government agencies etc

Lists included more than 100 names with matching would-be posts. Not all of them arrested yet #TurkeyCoupAttempt

10:32 AM - 16 Jul 2016 CNN Türk ENG @CNNTURK_ENG

#BREAKING Turkish President Erdoğan speaks live, calls U.S to hand over Fethullah Gulen to if U.S is strategic ally

Translation - Erdogan to U.S.: "If you want to keep access to Incirlik airbase you will have to give me Gülen!" (mentioned that earlier - see above)

10:32 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof

Gulen will be a huge issue, possibly costing US access to Incirlik base. twitter.com/turkeyuntold/s…

10:42 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Joshua Landis @joshua_landis

Clearing out Gulenists, fall guys for coup. They aren't know 4 strength in army. Still not clear who is behind this.

Political parties just demonstrated solidarity against the coup. Now this:

11:08 AM - 16 Jul 2016 Conflict News @Conflicts

BREAKING: Pro-Kurdish HDP offices under attack in by pro-Erdogan supporters in Iskenderun, Malatya and Osmaniye #Turkey - @michaelh992

Posted by b on July 16, 2016 at 03:10 AM | Permalink

Comments
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What a bloody disappointment.

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Jul 16, 2016 3:32:04 AM | 1

Hard to take this site seriously, for years people have argued with right against the coup in Ukraine, when it happens in Turkey to seems sad that the coup didnt accomplish its goal. Quite ridiculous.

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 3:34:21 AM | 2

The number involved in the coup seems too small. Erdogan's Turkey isn't a place where a small group of generals and coronels can take power while a passive population just watches. This Turkey is AKP's Turkey. Are Turkey soldiers professional or conscripts? But for a few units that couldn't even take mostly civilian posts (police and MIT office) soldiers just gave up when confronted with lightly armed police.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jul 16, 2016 3:38:07 AM | 3

Posted by: ThePaper | Jul 16, 2016 3:38:07 AM | 3

They were conscripts told they were taking part in an exercise ...

Posted by: somebody | Jul 16, 2016 3:40:14 AM | 4

b - "The plotters' major mistakes were:...." I agree that those mistakes were made, but I have to ask what Turkish military leader would possibly be so stupid as to make those mistakes? Considering how this all went down, it looks too much like a false flag designed specifically to create a credible excuse. One designed to crack down on Gulenists in the military without appearing to do so unprovoked.

So who gains here besides Erdogan? Xymphora makes a case for the Saudis:

This seems like another paradox, but perhaps not, if the trade-off for CIA assistance to the Saudis, through its asset Gülen, is the shift away from the Saudis seeing Shi'ites as the big threat to the Saudi royals, to seeing Sunni populism as the big threat.

The implication here being that Saudis set up a Gulen purge in Turkey to prevent the possibility that Gulen would ever instigate a coup themselves. Could Saudi Intelligence really convince a few poor Turkish military types that they had a snowball's chance in hell of this ever working? Apparently so, unless the rebellious Turks came up with this fantastically weak and ill-prepared coup attempt all by themselves.

"...The Saudis are terrified of the Muslim Brotherhood as the royals feel, probably correctly, that the Sunni conservative populism represented by the Muslim Brotherhood constitutes the main threat to their keeping their heads..."

The Saudis control Wahabbism and applies head-choppers where and when desired. If there was a coup in Saudi Arabia, Sunni conservatives (or Muslim Brotherhood) would lead the rebellion. So why the paranoia now over Gulen in Turkey, of all places?

"...The next logical step and response would be efforts to destabilize Saudi Arabia, and a break in the Wahhabist-Zionist alliance..."

So Israel and the U.S. preparing to throw the Saudis under the bus now that they're no longer needed? The release of the missing 28-pages of the 9/11 report told us nothing, but the Saudi royals still must be upset/paranoid that it was released.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jul 16, 2016 3:50:49 AM | 5

The plotters' major mistakes were:

- to not capture Erdogan and the leaders of his political and security organizations,
- to not shut down all means of mass communication, especially the Internet, except those under their strict control,
- to not put out a trusted public face to represent the coup.

Thanks, b. That sounds like more than half a plan.

Patriotic Armed Forces sympathetic to the lust for a Better World for everyone, should be reviewing their Options...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 16, 2016 3:53:07 AM | 6

It does appear that people rallied to support Erdogan after he made his call to take to the streets. Still, I don't think the coup can be neatly swept up and deposited in the dustbin. It all depends on the extent of Erdogan's overreaction. It will be interesting to keep an eye on the up-until-now successful agreement to halt the exodus of migrants to Europe. If Erdogan perceives that the EU/U.S. tacitly backed the coup, he might open the spigot again.

Posted by: Mike Maloney | Jul 16, 2016 4:05:44 AM | 7

If this had the manpower and support withing the military to have ever had a chance of succeeding its should never have ended so abruptly. Any military leader above the rank of major should have had the training and knowledge to realize what was required to carry out a successful coup, many would have specifically trained against the possibility of one and known exactly how the government agencies would respond. The major mistakes pointed out by b are not things any professional solder should have looked at in hindsight and gone "Why didn't we think of that?"

Posted by: Bran | Jul 16, 2016 4:07:40 AM | 8

Golan@2 - A coup is the absolute worst, bloodiest way to change the government. Always. They almost always cause way more pain and suffering to the little people that coup leaders (often) claim to be fighting for. This would have been horrible for everyone in Turkey - I'm glad it ended so quickly with so few casualties.

I don't care for Erdogan, but I'm not Turkish and the Turks (rightly so) don't give a damn what I or any other foreigner thinks of their democratically-elected leader. I'll simply point out that the Turks - or at least Erdogan - didn't seem to worry too much about doing the exact same thing to Syria's democratically-elected leader. It's a bit disingenuous to be so concerned with the potential suffering of one population from a coup while simultaneously - and very intentionally - causing so much death, destruction and pain on another population.

Sorry, but "Don't do to Turkey what Turkey did to Syria" just doesn't evoke a lot of sympathy. Nonetheless, two wrongs don't make a right. I would rather Turkey stop supporting the coup in Syria and make reparations than I would wish retribution on the Turkish people having to deal with their own coup.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jul 16, 2016 4:14:14 AM | 9

Sounds like CIAs/Pentagon "rebels" in Syria - So undermanned that defeat was inevitable, but coup had no side benefits it seems.
The Kurds will be temporarily glad.

No doubt that successful military coup would be terrible, but I can't think of anyone in foreign leadership who is glad that Erdogan the authoritarian fuck wit is still free to be repressive.

Posted by: tom | Jul 16, 2016 4:17:05 AM | 10

The coup was over when Erdogan was able to get the message out to the Turkish people that this Gulen fellow (located in the US) was behind it and that....

"Turkey will not be run from Philadelphia!"

that was the end of the coup.

Posted by: greencrow | Jul 16, 2016 4:17:32 AM | 11

Sorry, not Philadelphia...I meant Pennyslvania.

Posted by: greencrow | Jul 16, 2016 4:19:37 AM | 12

@PavewayIV: Again with the idea that coups are inherently bloody and destructive. Setting this case (of possible non-coup attempt) aside, it should be very easy to see from the many examples of coups that worked for the long-term benefit of the people, that military invasion, civil war and color revolutions can easily create worse outcomes for the citizenry than an internally driven military coup d'etat.

Posted by: Bran | Jul 16, 2016 4:33:42 AM | 13

Bran@13 - Rotating your old psychopathic leaders for new ones always just results in a different psychopathic leaders, yet us crust-riding shaved apes have repeated this exercise in futility for several millenia, always hoping that "...this time will be different!"

Maybe we should try something else for a change?

Posted by: PavewayIV | Jul 16, 2016 4:46:07 AM | 14

to not capture Erdogan and the leaders of his political and security organizations,
Although not much reported in the media, they did try. I heard on the radio a British tourist in a hotel in Marmaris talking about the military action there, and the way the hotel was occupied.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 16, 2016 4:55:19 AM | 15

Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 16, 2016 4:55:19 AM | 15

They seem to have gone against their own command, though. It is military against military.

The people who designed this want the destabilization of Turkey, not a strong putsch governement.
My guess, same people plan for a split of Iraq and Syria including a Kurdish state.

Posted by: somebody | Jul 16, 2016 5:56:23 AM | 16

somebody

That makes no sense, that these coup people just did this for fun or destabilization, ridiculous, they tried to grab power plain and simple.

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 6:09:26 AM | 17

People are saying they are defending democracy... that he was "democratically" elected. He wasn't, the entire election was a farce. People who respect the process of what happened, just ensure that this tyrant will remain in power and that if he is pushed out, another will walk in to take his place.

Posted by: In Istanbul | Jul 16, 2016 6:25:31 AM | 18

Thanks PavewayIV

"what Turkish military leader would possibly be so stupid as to make those mistakes? Considering how this all went down, it looks too much like a false flag designed specifically to create a credible excuse"

Washington did Erdogan a favour, it gives him free reign in his own country to secure his position, also a reminder of who who he is indebted to. Moscow accepts this because any alternative is worse (?).

How will this impact Syria?

Posted by: david | Jul 16, 2016 6:26:46 AM | 19

In Istanbul

Nonsense, he was elected and recognized the ruler of Turkey by the whole world, commiting a military coup on the other hand is as anti-democratic as it gets.

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 7:05:04 AM | 20

Islamists use democracy sometimes to acquire power. Then they destroy democracy to retain power. Only military coup can remove them. Erdogan will now become the Sultan. Unchallenged and authoritarian.

Posted by: ab initio | Jul 16, 2016 7:27:28 AM | 21

ab initio

Your comment could have been written by any pro-israel neocon hawk,

Majority of turks support Erdogan,
http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2016/05/06/poll-62-pct-see-president-erdogan-as-turkeys-leader

Apparently "democracy" as you guys love to talk about doesnt mean anything.

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 7:32:11 AM | 22

I smell a rat in the works; I believe nothing and will with-hold all judgement until the dust settles...

Posted by: V. Arnold | Jul 16, 2016 7:36:53 AM | 23

Stephen Lendman has Turkey right..
Turkish democracy is pure illusion. Erdogan’s rule is iron-fisted. Opposition parliamentary members were stripped of immunity, leaving them vulnerable to arrest, prosecution and imprisonment for criticizing regime policies.
Erdogan is an international outlaw, a tinpot despot in a part of the world ruled by dictators. Turkey is also an important NATO member, allied with Washington’s imperial wars, its involvement crucial to their continuance.
Its territory is a launching pad and safe haven for US-created and supported jihadists waging war on Syria and its people. Weapons, munitions and other material support pass freely cross-border to ISIS and other terrorist groups.
Their wounded are treated in Turkish hospitals. Erdogan covets annexing northern Syrian territory. He profits from selling stolen ISIS oil.https://sjlendman.blogspot.co.uk/

Posted by: harrylaw | Jul 16, 2016 7:45:37 AM | 24

@22 Yeah right. When women get stoned to death for not wearing a sack on them you'll be cheering.

Posted by: ab initio | Jul 16, 2016 7:46:25 AM | 25

ab initio

Great, just proved my point again about that you are pro-israel neocon.
Keep hating muslims, islam, great job!

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 8:05:44 AM | 26

Was this "amateur coup" just a test by Erdogan's opponents to check public reaction to a larger coup? As it did not get enough public support, what is in plan to stop Erdogan's bulldozing dictatorship?

Is weakened Erdogan ready to make another deal with ISIS to continue receive the support of the Islamist sympathizers that saved him from the 'secular' army?

How far in keeping the country as a hostage to Islamists can Erdogan go without loosing credibility with Western allies and Russia?

Erdogan has subdued the police, the press, the judiciary and the religious establishment. He has the loyalty of Turks supporting ISIS's ideology and looking for further islamization of the country. Therefore the army is the last outpost of Kemalism and secularism. Despite having subdued generals the army has been the weakest link as it has many supporters of Gulen.
Erdogan's opponents have two choices left : a military coup or assassination.
It is known that Turks are allergic to military coup, therefore in my view Erdogan's opponents set up a rehearsal of a coup to evaluate public support. It turned out that the coup did not rally political groups and it showed that a coup is not the solution. The army refrains from using brute violence against Erdogan's supporters so as not to alienate the population.
The only left solution is targeted assassination. Erdogan's days may be counted.

Posted by: virgile | Jul 16, 2016 8:10:10 AM | 27

as citenzry - the unplugging on the internet was a very frightening thing to see... "how is that done and is there anything we can do to fight against that as a citizen or prepare against that?" prlly can do nothing short of a satellite connection im sure..

Posted by: Au | Jul 16, 2016 8:31:48 AM | 28

Would have been refreshing to see a man who has been in power since 2002 be toppled (but i feel hypocritical saying that given my syrian stance)

I have to believe the Erdogan Snap Elections which were a choicely timed democratic coup in there own right had to of been a factor.

Posted by: Au | Jul 16, 2016 8:33:24 AM | 29

As a result of the coup, 2,745 judges across the country have been removed from office.

http://www.news.com.au/world/europe/turkish-military-in-attempted-coup-says-prime-minister/news-story/3a2dfdd4deeed44d9ce2462ea9a3ee4c

Posted by: Les | Jul 16, 2016 8:38:01 AM | 30

Maybe it's a coincidence that the countries that were starting to cooperate with Russia are under attack. France, due to the uprising of the citizenry and Turkey seeking to align with Russia for convoluted reasons. It's pretty hard to figure out a psychopaths actions, especially when they start eating each other alive. If only we required brain scans to deem them ineligible for positions of power, none of this would be happening. despot = psychopath.

Posted by: Barbara | Jul 16, 2016 8:39:06 AM | 31

Golan,
in the earlier thread you asked me why so many would be supportive of a military coup. i think it boils down to a perceived lack of legitimacy.
many countries are polarized between parties and interests. they all see the other as illegitimate and a threat to the real americans, turks, brits, syrians, etc.
then they hang out in the comment sections of their favorite blogs goading each other.
i also found the idea of getting rid of Erdogan attractive in some ways, he's such a trouble making shithead, it could possibly solve so many problems.
saturday morning, time to weed the garden.

Posted by: sillybill | Jul 16, 2016 8:46:48 AM | 32

Have to say I noticed more than a few of the civilians responding to Erdogan's plea for action were openly throwing the "Grey Wolf" salute. N.A.T.O./Gladio/Far Right elements certainly seemed to be leading the counter (faux)coup!

Posted by: BilboBaggeshott | Jul 16, 2016 8:49:31 AM | 33

Erdogan was preparing a purge of the military. Turkey was preparing to extradite Fethullah Gulen in the days before the coup and had submitted a list of charges against the Gulenists to the Department of Justice.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-prosecutors-office-completes-broad-indictment-against-gulenists.aspx?pageID=238&nID=101656&NewsCatID=509

Posted by: Les | Jul 16, 2016 8:51:57 AM | 34

The coup attempt was clearly half-baked, and involving too many officers to attribute it to simple idiocy.

One possible explanation is that as conspirators were recruiting more members, MIT (or another intelligence service) got tipped, coup leaders got tipped about that and then they hurried under "now or never" principle. Their heads would roll in either case. However, this scenario gives large scope for manipulation: offer full leniency and promotions to some conspirators, and add pretend conspirators.

That could explain why the coup focused on a hotel that Erdogan already left. AKP evolved into a cult of personality, so with Erdogan in their hands coupsters would have many possibilities, even if they had rather sparse active support. In other words, this was an absolutely central objective.Surely, someone was watching if Erdogan's entourage is there. Either the watcher actually cooperated with the intelligence, or Erdogan with full knowledge of the plans left surreptitiously.

Less speculative is the role of Guelenists in the coup. That sounds just like a typical Erdogan's b......t. The prior story was that Guelenists created a well connected group within police and judiciary and used that to launch a witch hunt against some officers and their ideological supporters, "Erdenekon affair". There were news about businessmen in their ranks. There was never an allegation about Guelinists in the military. Lastly, this is totally in variance with their mode of operation from the actions that we know about. And yet, very characteristically, Erdogan "knew" instantly that Guelen is the culprit. I see two reasons: this movement is to Erdogan as Moby Dick to Captain Ahab. More rationally, now Erdogan has a great reason to crack down with genuine force, like really long prison sentences, on EVERYBODY who displeases him.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 16, 2016 8:53:48 AM | 35

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 6:09:26 AM | 17

Sure they did - like the conscripts who were told they would take part in an exercise?

Posted by: somebody | Jul 16, 2016 8:53:49 AM | 36

First of all the most likely version here is, that this was a false flag by Erdogan and his supporters. Erdogan did not escape. He apparently spent a short holiday at a seaside resort only to rush back when information of a coup attempt reached him.It seems to me that Erdogan had to do this for several reasons:

1. He needed a reason to find out, how big the support for him within army and population really is. Therefore one of the first steps was that he addressed his people via Skype and asked them to go into the streets and defend the democracy, their country (we can argue now about democracy or not).

2. Erdogan wants to turn away from Nato and eu and is looking for rapprochement with Russia and his prime minister Yildirim publicly announced a few days ago that Turkey is looking to mend ties with its neighbours Irak and Syria. Erdogan had to show that even though he is making a complete U-turn the population is behind his policy.

His range of power is far bigger now. His position is much stronger and this can help to get Turkey out of the grip of Nato. The natural allies of Turkey lie in the East.

As for the coup supporters. They were ill prepared, naive and harsh punishment will await them.

Erdogan has proven to be a master of survival and it will be interesting to see what his next steps will be.

Posted by: Demeter | Jul 16, 2016 9:04:22 AM | 37

somebody

Thats not how the world runs, what would you have said if they accomplish the coup?
Conscripts or anyone else involved in this coup attempt tried of course to gain power, what is to even debate?

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 9:05:34 AM | 38

@20 and 22

Sorry, I don't care if the whole world agrees that the world is now flat – it simply isn't. I had a friend as part of the OSCE election monitoring mission for the last election, and although it failed nearly every metric for being a fair election they "recognized" it as fair anyways. The order came from up top: let the tyrant rule.

Unless your only source on the election is Daily Sabah, willful ignorance would be the most polite of terms to describe someone with your position.

If you believe Daily Sabah when it talks about the Turkish people and government, I'm sure you believe Pravda when it talks about Putin's Russia...

Regardless, this petty tyrant will continue to drag Turkey down a path of economic instability and towards cultural collapse. When the only thing you invoke is the past you aren't a leader – you just have no idea of the future.

Posted by: In Istanbul | Jul 16, 2016 9:13:36 AM | 39

Well,as the majority of the people of Turkey seemed resistant,I'd chalk up the response as a democratic revolt!
F*ck military f*ckups,and whatever Erdogan is,its up to the Turkish people to remove or support him.

Posted by: dahoit | Jul 16, 2016 9:16:01 AM | 40

Its silly to make any judgement on something like this until yer possession of at least some irrefutable facts.
Cui bono is only useful as either a starting point in the hunt for facts ot for supplying a motive once evidence points in a certain direction. As a way of proving anything on its own, it is worthless.

Imagine living in a system where whoever may benefit from a crime is the sole arbiter of guilt. Police could arrest whoever the fuck they don't like any time a bank gets knocked over most people would appreciate thousands of dollars extra in their kick.
Trying to throw out a leader who enjoys popular support is plain wrong - and not just ethically - Unconstitutionally roll anyone who enjoys the support of the people and there is no chance of a sustainable regime to follow.

I hafta say that I find it weird the same people who are forever putting every instance the amerikan empire benefits as being down to amerikan intelligence organisations, then try and hang a fuckup like this on those same assholes. It is insane. The sort of abstractionist bumblers organisations such as the CIA employ, could never get anything perfectly implemented, but equally they don't create total fuck ups much either - well planned fumbling failures such as Libya or Iraq - that is about their speed - total perfection and/or total imperfection is not what they do.

There is no reason to absolve erdogan from pulling a stunt like this; if there was a big benefit, but I have yet to be convinced how erdogan could get significant benefit from this mess. He's not dreading an impending election since Turkey has just been through one, and since the gang behind this coup aren't huge, it is unlikely to reveal any/much intell on opponents.
The rest of it that "it gives him and excuse for crackdown' makes me wonder if we are all talking about the same fellow, Erdogan has never bothered with complex scenarios to justify his tyranny so why bother about that now? There are attacks against citizens every week (maybe some are false flag but that doesn't detract from the reality that he already pretty much has all the justification he needs to arrest and torture innocents.
Stirring up more trouble in a society which is already chaotic is probably beyond even erdogan's psychopathy especially since he doesn't need this to justify what he does.
His puppets have been raping murdering and torturing for a decade now, with no significant antipathy from any other nation states.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Jul 16, 2016 9:19:00 AM | 41

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 9:05:34 AM | 38

Well, they could have tried to do a Stauffenberg and killed Erdogan. They obviously did not have the number to fight their own army command nor did they have the support of any political force within Turkey.

No responsible actor attempts a putsch like that if he cannot be confident about the outcome.

Posted by: somebody | Jul 16, 2016 9:29:41 AM | 42

In Instanbul

Who cares what your friend tells you when I just showed that the turks in majority support Erdogan, of course you going to whine about my source, its so obvious.

Heres more proof that Erdogan is popular, this time from Gallup, what are you going to say now huh, that Gallup is managed by Erdogan agents? sigh.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20140730-support-for-erdogan-hits-59-in-turkey-gallup-poll/

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 9:34:26 AM | 43

This starts to smell like the Iranian revolution. Old Kemalist military fully compromised, unwilling conscripts and prepared islamists ready to take control of the situation. Will the US Embassy be taken hostage? Or the NATO, nuke armed, base of Incirlik?

Posted by: ThePaper | Jul 16, 2016 9:34:52 AM | 44

US consulate says Turkey's Incirlik Air Base has been sealed and the power cut off - CNN

Posted by: Yul | Jul 16, 2016 9:36:34 AM | 45

@all - you may want to reread the post above once a while - I currently update it a lot.

Posted by: b | Jul 16, 2016 9:36:46 AM | 46

#46

sorry b for #45 ( didn't read the update before posting)

Posted by: Yul | Jul 16, 2016 9:42:09 AM | 47

b, add the case of the disappearing top military command

Only Chief of General Gen. Staff Hulusi Akar was saved among the top commanders held hostage by the Gülenist coup attempters, as whereabouts of others remained unknown, said deputy Chief of Staff Ümit Dündar on July 16.

The air force’s command, the gendarmerie command and some units from the armored forces took part in the coup attempt, he said, adding that it was quashed.

Turkey will fight neither ISIS nor the Turks any time soon.

Posted by: somebody | Jul 16, 2016 9:45:42 AM | 48

Posted by: ThePaper | Jul 16, 2016 9:34:52 AM | 44

You might be on to something

Any country that stands by the Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen will not be a friend of Turkey and will be considered at war with the NATO member, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on Saturday.

Posted by: somebody | Jul 16, 2016 10:01:14 AM | 49

@26 getting your panties in a wad. The only good jihadi is a dead one.

Posted by: ab initio | Jul 16, 2016 10:03:11 AM | 50

from b's 'retweets' above ...


3:03 AM - 16 Jul 2016 @dr_davidson

After digesting #TurkeyCoup news, my view is Erdogan's agents in military forewarned him, & there were considerable benefits allowing it 1/3


That would explains a lot ... the amateurish nature of the coup disappears ... the military had a 'good' plan, they just didn't carry it out.

What would make the top guys approached go to Erdogan? They were approached by 'heavies' from outside the country?

That would account for their going to Erdogan rather than just locking up the guys who approached them, 'Hey, the CIA is suggesting a coup!' How do you want to handle it?

Obama's initial calls are consistent with that ... once he got the drift of what was actually going down he switched to 'support for the democratically elected government'. Kerry wasn't talking to John Brennan, knew of the plan, didn't know it had blown wide open.

Erdogan is not amused. He's shut down US access to Incirlik ... where the 50-90 nukes are. Obama has stepped on his dick again.

This time Big Time. Ah well ... maybe Erdogan will only give IS one or two. Blame it on the coupsters. That'sd be the CIA, wouldn't it?

Posted by: jfl | Jul 16, 2016 10:16:31 AM | 51

Thanks for a great summary and analysis, b.

Some points:

1) The moment Erdoghan accused Gulen, it was a slap against the US, whether Gulen had anything to do with it or not. You don't conduct a coup from Pennsylvania without CIA blessing.

2) You can't determine support or opposition to a coup by public statements of officials. They know before the rest of us do if the coup still has a chance of success and obviously will not support it once it is clear it's a looser. And if you are the guy organizing the coup from the start, you will know earliest of all. Hence, late afternoon statements by Kerry that the US supports the democratically elected government have no meaning if said government is already known to have won.

3) Those who are out of the loop of coup plotters will generally issue anodyne statements of "concern" "restraint" "avoid bloodshed" etc. until it is clear which side will come out on top. They want to alienate neither the old government or the potentially new one.

4) Once it is clear the government is winning, everyone rallies to their side, whether they like Erdoghan or not. No benefit at all in saying "I wish the coup had worked out."

5) Supporters of the coup early on can spread disinformation while publicly pretending to support the government. What exactly is the origin of the story that Erdoghan was in flight, looking for asylum? It's only purpose would be to rally wavering parts of the military to join the coup and to demoralize government supporters. That disinfo almost certainly was issued after the military failed to arrest Erdoghan in Marmaris, probably as a last ditch effort to give the coup some legs.

Posted by: Lysander | Jul 16, 2016 10:24:44 AM | 52

Payback time
Erdogan's Islamist supporters that "saved" him from the secular army's hands are now dictating the rules on the fight against ISIS.
Incirlik will be locked down ( for futile reasons) to prevent the US and other Western countries to attack ISIS and Al Nusra in Syria.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/turkey-authorities-impose-lockdown-at-incirlik-air-base-us-consulate/article/470187

Posted by: virgile | Jul 16, 2016 10:32:19 AM | 53

By way of the New Great Game, the coup was to be staged at a later date but launched on Friday because the police were already starting to round up the coup leaders on the orders of the Prosecutor's office (see above).

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/754307631821516801

Posted by: Les | Jul 16, 2016 10:34:20 AM | 54

The shooting of the Russian plane was part of the army dissidents to weaken Erdogan.

"According to the Mayor of Ankara, Melih Gökçek, one of the participants of the coup attempt in Turkey was the pilot of the F-16 fighter that shot down a Russian Su-24 frontline bomber over the Turkish-Syrian border in November of last year, RBC reported."

Posted by: virgile | Jul 16, 2016 10:36:06 AM | 55

Seems to me that Erdogan has more popular support than anyone on here gives him credit for. Once he called for the people to hit the streets, they did.

Of course there will be a reckoning. Does one suppose that any government would take a benign outlook on treason? Or maybe it isn't treason because we typewriter warriors have decided Erdogan is a bad man.

Of course there's lots going on here that we can only guess at. Maybe it will come out over time and maybe it won't.

A false flag? What happens if the people don't materialize on the streets when they're supposed to? You are fucked is what happens.

CIA involvement? Pretty risky business when so much depends on American access to Incirlik.

Of course Lavrov and Kerry would go easy on the comments while things were in flux. Simply hedging their bets. The Yanks need Turkey as an ally no matter who's running the joint and the Russians need to get through the straits. Business is business.

Posted by: peter | Jul 16, 2016 11:15:16 AM | 57

The coup has failed, the sultan wanna be has won. Expect more support to the US/saudi/qatari terrorists in Syria and a islamic dictatorship in Ankara...

Posted by: guy | Jul 16, 2016 11:28:17 AM | 58

Political scientist Asad AbuKhalil thinks Saudi Arabia was behind the coup.

Posted by: Edward | Jul 16, 2016 11:31:43 AM | 59

"Treason doth never prosper--what's the reason?
For if it doth prosper, none dare call it treason".

The suffocating despotism of Erdodan is clearly the kind of environment where this adage holds true.

Posted by: Copeland | Jul 16, 2016 11:49:39 AM | 60

Erdogan I mean. Or Err--Rodan, who knows.

Air Dandon?

Posted by: Copeland | Jul 16, 2016 11:54:06 AM | 61

There's enough damning evidence and if you look at the big picture you'll recognize a pattern. The terrorists in control of the u.s.g have done this, through their mercenaries. Until we stop them, we'll have no peace on earth, just non-stop terror blamed on the wrong crowd. Note that this was posted before the attack:
http://katehon.com/news/alexander-dugin-gave-press-conference-ankara

Posted by: Barbara | Jul 16, 2016 11:54:40 AM | 62

The somewhat coup-supportive early statements from Lavrov ("avoid bloodshed") and Kerry ("stability!") will increase Erdogan's mistrust of any foreign official. - b.

I interpreted these as more supportive of Erdogan than pro-coup. “Avoid bloodshed” means back down, and “stability” means let the present authorities stay in power.

Of course W powers all judge that Erdo is a nutter, unpredictable, set on perso domination, not reliable in any way. NATO top brass imho hates him and would wish to see him gone, a kind of vain hope, as they don’t understand Turkey at all (NATO group-think) and don’t have a plan for replacement. If presented with a reasonable oppo they might take it, but would be very cautious and slow, i.e. would not be pro-active in the complex landscape.

As for the three possible perps behind this ‘failed coup’, in b’s post, only

the old Kemalist secularist movement in the military and deep state

seems realistic imho.

In a way, past day(s) events in Turkey are more like a mutiny within a group, harking back, hoping for, the past ‘glorious’ history with the military’s role, set apparatus, repository of strong instituted power. (Attaturk.) As compared to a realistic stab at a succesfull or semi-so, disruptive, coup.

..imho -- so ??

Not capturing the media - yikes. And it is easy to do!

Cracks in the established order all over…

Posted by: Noirette | Jul 16, 2016 12:06:31 PM | 63

One can not even write a cheeky poem about the thin-skinned Erdogan, without the president making to set loose the hounds. That verse would be insulting Turkeyness. Disrespecting the man's authoritay.

Posted by: Copeland | Jul 16, 2016 12:10:56 PM | 64

b Important Information

In my opinion events are going to get ugly. Real ugly. Along with the 1915 Armenian Genocide we have ...

"At this point, the reward for the assassination of the Imperial family posted by Wall Street Jewish banker Jacob Schiff was settled with the Bolsheviks. This German born Jew was later to boast and celebrate the funding of the 1917 Bolshevik coup which overthrew Russia’s legitimate government. Schiff personally offered a substantial reward for the murder of the Russian royal family. This Jewish banker’s investment funded a tyranny which, at the time of its collapse in 1990, is estimated to have directly or indirectly led to loss of life estimated between 70 and 100 million, mostly Christians. Jacob Schiff appears to have achieved the dubious distinction of being the biggest killer in the history of humankind."

source - http://www.renegadetribune.com/jewish-murder-russian-imperial-family/

Information that has been kept 'TOP SECRET' for 100 years is being leaked. Possibly 115 million Christians liquidated by the _ _ _ _.

Posted by: ALberto | Jul 16, 2016 12:16:23 PM | 65

Ok since when did the internet become experts on coups?

Turkey is a large country, and for the coup plotters to mount this challenge at all was a major feat.

They probably wanted to capture Erdog, but possibly couldn't find him when the deadline hit.

Given the amount of people in the streets, the battle lost by Erdog's popular support, along with the hesitance of the troops to stand their ground

Posted by: bbbb | Jul 16, 2016 12:22:02 PM | 66

Ah, those US nukes at Incirlik.

Amazing, NeoCons and Hawks of all ilks are still trying to scare the US public about Iran and nuclear danger, yet our government sees fit to keep nukes at a base on territory controlled by a egomaniacal despot-to-be.

Such farsightedness.

Would Erdogan allow the US/NATO to remove those nukes?

Oh, crap.

Posted by: jawbone | Jul 16, 2016 12:30:29 PM | 67

Copeland, :) you probably know this, but others not. Boris Johnson won the prize for the the most insulting poem about Erdogan offered by GB newspaper (s?), 1K pounds.

Spectaror announces the winner!

one can read it at link.

Posted by: Noirette | Jul 16, 2016 12:40:31 PM | 68

@67 I wonder what would happen if Icirlik gets stormed

Posted by: bbbb | Jul 16, 2016 12:48:45 PM | 69

Oh! I forgot to mention. 115 million ORTHODOX Christians not Roman Christians.

Do we see a pattern forming here?

White Chickens coming home to roost?

"Before the outbreak of the Great War (1914 ~ 1918) available in selected Warsaw shops patronised by Jews were greeting cards with images unavailable for Gentiles. The postcards carried the image of the tzadik. This is an image of a rabbinical Jew with the Torah in his one hand and a white fowl in the other." ibid

We do live in interesting times.

Posted by: ALberto | Jul 16, 2016 1:01:57 PM | 70

"U.S. military operations out of Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base came to a halt Saturday afternoon as the Turkish military closed the airspace around the base, following an attempted coup, a Pentagon spokesman said."

source - http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/turkey-closes-air-space-over-incirlik-grounding-us-aircraft-at-base-1.419447?

Posted by: ALberto | Jul 16, 2016 1:04:56 PM | 71

The Guardian has published a pretty detailed narrative of how the failed coup went down:

It was like 1970s': how soldiers on the street tested Turkey's post-coup politics

It is consistent with what b has written. Good reporting from The Guardian for a change.

Posted by: Demian | Jul 16, 2016 1:12:19 PM | 72

@56 Barbara - excellent links, thanks. The fourth one is Korybko with a great summary of Turkey's pivot now to Eurasia, Erdogan's secret beginning rapprochement with Assad, and his clear finish with EU and NATO. The US through this clumsy coup just lost Turkey as a pawn.

#68 Noirette - how could a political figure with ambitions such as Boris Johnson possibly put in writing such a disgusting insult. Calling anyone in the world someone who had sex with a goat is going to make them angry. And now Johnson is foreign minister for the UK? The UK couldn't have found a better way to destroy all relations with Turkey if it had tried.

Scott at the Saker has a brief and readable overview of where things stand. The coup plotters were pro-US and Pro-NATO. Turkey is finished now with the west.

We will come to tolerate Erdogan a whole lot more now that he has relations with Russia. Turk Stream is on. He'll seal the border with Syria and the terrorists in-country will be destroyed or neutralized. Turkey can become an economic powerhouse as the gateway to Asia, the broker of Russian energy, a key node on the Silk Road, etc.

Erdogan may never be a nice guy, but politics makes for strange bedfellows, and probably no one knows this better than the Russians. And in geo-politics, you love most of all the places where your pipelines lie.

Posted by: Grieved | Jul 16, 2016 1:15:19 PM | 73

In addition to the usual hoax! and conspiracy theories, now we get multiple excuses for every event to muddy the waters.

For Erdogan:

> coups are dangerous - careful what you wish for!
> he's democratically elected! popular support!
> the coup was pro-American - power cut at Icirlik!
> Erodgan doesn't need an excuse to crack down

Erdogan is a savvy political operator that seeks total control. The coup attempt was probably known beforehand, if not instigated by Erdogan associates. The coup's obvious failings and Erdogan's immediate crackdown on the judiciary is a 'tell'.

Erdogan was weakened by the break in relations with Russia - which led to an apology and renewed relations with Israel - as well as discontent related to his anti-democratic actions (esp. wrt free press and opposition). This failed "coup" eliminates any question of his rule and makes his control absolute.

Erdogan's Turkey is a key member of the Assad must go! Coalition. His improved position benefits USA/KSA/etc efforts to topple Assad. Democratic governments aren't useful - that why we see Ukrainian Nazi's; ISIS/Jihadi's; Erdogan's authoritarianism.

For Nice attacker:

> crazy, belligerent
> Petty criminal, not jihadist

This guy waited for 9 hours to start his attack. This was planned. No random crazy 'loser' does this. Despite the excuses, MSM will still paint this as inspired by ISIS/jihadis with obvious benefits to those that want to put 'boots on the ground' in Syria.

That he was a low-level criminal and hot head 'loser' only made him a target for those that would use use him.

For Orlando attacker:

> Hates gays (may himself be gay!)

Lots of people hate gays but they don't engage in suicidal rampages and leave behind their young child. We are supposed to ignore his travel to Saudi Arabia.

These 'backstory' excuses don't stand up to scrutiny. They are meant to derail critics with 'reasonable doubt': STFU and leave the narrative to the experts.

But anyone that is guided by the big picture of USA/Israel/Saudi collusion against Iran as described by Sy Hersh in The Redirection (confirmed by subsequent events and info) will be skeptical of all attempts to convince otherwise.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 16, 2016 1:15:58 PM | 74

Grieved @73: The coup plotters were pro-US and Pro-NATO.

That doesn't mean that US was really trying to topple Erdogan. The entire Turkish military is pro-US and pro-NATO.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 16, 2016 1:19:23 PM | 75

@73 yes - I'm thinking that this could potentially be a watershed event for Turk-Russia relations, and a devastating event for American interests in the region. Will have to wait for Putin's response I guess

Will USA wage a war on Turkey now in a desperate attempt to restore its foothold? They probably lost most of their options today as I'm sure coupsters will be executed

Posted by: bbbb | Jul 16, 2016 1:24:40 PM | 76

@Grieved #73:

Scott at the Saker has a brief and readable overview of where things stand. The coup plotters were pro-US and Pro-NATO.

Thanks for the link. ;-)

Scott writes, "The military coup was pro-Washington and pro-NATO and against Russia. It’s all we need to know." I agree completely. I don't like Erdogan at all, but the main thing, when it comes to Turkey is – given that it is a major power that is a neighbor of Russia's – whether its government is friendly to Russia or hostile.

Scott also wrote, "The Mayor of Ankara: Russian jet was shot down by people loyal to the shadow government…" (I think that's been mentioned here at MoA.) I'd like very much for that to be true. Turkey shooting the plane down was a major reason why I have become fairly anti-Islam recently.

One thing that occurred to me as the coup was transpiring that I thought about mentioning here but didn't was the timing. It happened soon after Turkey apologized to Russia for shooting the plane down. This kind of timing is always a reason to suspect US involvement.

Posted by: Demian | Jul 16, 2016 1:38:09 PM | 77

Am I crazy to genuinely believe the U.S. was truly caught by surprise regarding this whole coup? I mean it was on a colonel level and had it been higher ranking senior staff I'd be more inclined to believe we had a hand.

Posted by: Au | Jul 16, 2016 1:43:43 PM | 78

bbbb @76:

I'm thinking that this could potentially be a watershed event for Turk-Russia relations
More pro-Russian wishful thinking, which MoA commenters have been criticized for in the past.

I place this coup in the context of a renewed push by the Assad must go! Coalition:

> rearming rebels / anti-Russian propaganda (bombing hospitals)

> terr0r attacks for 'something must be done' motivation

> ultimatum to Iran (deadline: Aug. 1st)

> offer for joint ops with Russia (likely subtext: as long as you agree that Assad must go!)

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 16, 2016 1:48:11 PM | 79

Au @77:

Am I crazy to genuinely believe the U.S. was truly caught by surprise

See: Les @54

Coup was likely known/suspected. If Turkey knew, US knew.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 16, 2016 1:52:23 PM | 80

...
"When the only thing you invoke is the past you aren't a leader – you just have no idea of the future."
Posted by: In Istanbul | Jul 16, 2016 9:13:36 AM | 39

Well put. Right-wing Neolib (Privatise Everything!) stooges in a nutshell...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 16, 2016 1:53:56 PM | 81

Reports he had fled the country in a private jet and asked Germany for landing rights and asylum there.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/690120/Turkey-coup-claims-Erdogan-claimed-asylum-Germany-rejected-Merkel

Posted by: Les | Jul 16, 2016 2:02:24 PM | 82

Les

Ridiculous propaganda, plain and simple.

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 2:07:10 PM | 83

@79 The US position should become clear when/if they extradite Fethullah Gülen.

Posted by: dh | Jul 16, 2016 2:12:07 PM | 84

I agree with Andrew Korybko's analysis:

In short, it was a pro-US coup attempt desperately launched in a last-ditch effort to sabotage the game-changing Russian-Turkish detente. Expect more Hybrid War as the US strategically retreats from its decades-long special relationship with Turkey and seeks to leave a trail of geopolitical “scorched earth” in its wake

Posted by: hejiminy cricket | Jul 16, 2016 2:14:20 PM | 85

Smells a bit like a desperate Safari Club activity mobilizing Saudi and Turkey deep state assets to keep Turkey in line for their war against Assad, Iran and Russia. Things are going out of control for them, so they are acting under pressure and do not bother about likely burning their assets in risky adventures - these assets would become useless anyway soon. Expect more sick action from the Führerbunker.

Posted by: Kassandra | Jul 16, 2016 2:20:15 PM | 86

@84 the anti-Erdogites, whether US assisted or not, played their hand and it's now a total loss. He will consolidate his power, and only assassination or war will unseat him. The consequences of either act would probably be an outright disaster for both Turkey and Europe.

Washington failed either way, as it either caused the litany of events that led to this crisis, or directly caused this crisis (and failed)

Posted by: bbbb | Jul 16, 2016 2:28:32 PM | 87

So many theories regarding 'whodunnit'. The winner appears to be Erdogan no matter. To add to the mix of 'why's' what about the new Constitution Erdogan is pushing for passage. If passed, as is, it will provide even more power to the Prez, correct?

Oh and did anyone else find it odd that those who greeted him at the airport were waving Turkey flags that appeared to be brand new? Odd. Do the shops at the airport carry Turkish flags? T-shirts, sure but flags? hhhhmmmm....

And maybe I'm missing something here or do not understand the connection b/w the voter and the leader in Turkey's culture, but I can't imagine, here in the good ole USA, voters taking to the streets if the U.S. military were staging a coup in DC. Sure, some would, but very few...just sayin...especially with F-16s and Heli's shooting at people from the air.

Lots of strange...

Posted by: h | Jul 16, 2016 2:35:39 PM | 88

"The US position should become clear when/if they extradite Fethullah Gülen.

Posted by: dh | Jul 16, 2016 2:12:07 PM | 83

Yep!

Posted by: ben | Jul 16, 2016 2:45:37 PM | 89

Russia prevails again over inbred 'exceptionals.'

per Sputnik

"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday requested his US counterpart Barack Obama to extradite Turkish opposition cleric Fethullah Gulen, who has been reportedly linked to the coup attempt, to Turkey."

source - http://sputniknews.com/asia/20160716/1043132790/erdogan-gulen-extradition.html


"Turkish Labor Minister Süleyman Soylu claimed that Washington is behind the attempted coup in Turkey.

"The US is behind the coup attempt. A few journals that are published there [in the US] have been conducting activities for several months. For many months have sent requests to the US concerning Fethullah Gulen. The US must extradite him," he said."

source - http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160716/1043134590/turkey-minister-us.html

Posted by: ALberto | Jul 16, 2016 2:57:32 PM | 90

"Incirlik for Gulen" Wow! that was quick!
The Obama administration would entertain an extradition request for the U.S.-based cleric that Turkey's president is blaming for a failed coup attempt, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Saturday.

Posted by: Maracatu | Jul 16, 2016 3:06:14 PM | 91

OF course US arent going to extradite Gulen, some people are way too naive..

Posted by: Golan | Jul 16, 2016 3:39:18 PM | 92

@92 Hopefully Obama admin will get absolutely sh!t on if he does go ahead with it

Posted by: bbbb | Jul 16, 2016 3:40:49 PM | 93

"Incirlik for Gulen"

Sorry, even with the sacrificial lamb it still sounds like an inside job. Color me skeptical that Incirlik was ever out of US control for a millisecond.

It does make a good story though. For all audiences. But I don't think we can count on Erdogan as acting independently until an ACTUAL rapprochement with Russia.

Posted by: L Bean | Jul 16, 2016 3:43:15 PM | 94

The Putsch Pushed by Minority and Meant to Fail

Posted by: Oui | Jul 16, 2016 3:47:02 PM | 95

bbbb, Obama couldn't care less. He's counting down the days until he can golf 24/7. Changing administrations always accept these types of dirty goings on, with the outgoing figurehead taking one for the new team coming in so as to preserve a holy blamelessness for as long as possible. And old Hillary needs and extra running start for sure.

Posted by: L Bean | Jul 16, 2016 3:47:34 PM | 96

Coup deaths - a small price to pay to get your hands on Fethullah Gülen!

Posted by: Oui | Jul 16, 2016 3:49:12 PM | 97

every dictator needs a scapegoat...

Posted by: james | Jul 16, 2016 3:51:03 PM | 98

Lots of interesting tidbits and red herrings. The NY Times' description of Erdogan I read this morning was "embattled president," which told me the Establishment supported the terrorist Erdogan along with all the terrorist groups he helps support, although I haven't seen anything from Daesh. I see no one has offered the Nice attack as part of the coup's cause, which might make sense if the coup was actually backed by some NATO members. The already drawn up judicial purge list is important, but can be seen two ways--the coup was in defense of those due to be purged and what would likely follow; the whole event is a false-flag of sorts to provide justification and cover for the purge and what's to follow. The outcome insures Erdogan's dictatorial hand will be strengthened, which will make supporters like golan pleased.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 16, 2016 4:03:48 PM | 99

Support from the Salafist countries UAE, Kuwait, KSA and Egypt?

Egypt blocks UN Security Council condemnation of Turkey violence: Reuters
'Recep Tayyip Vanishes' Read Egypt Headlines On Turkey Coup Bid

Posted by: Oui | Jul 16, 2016 4:09:38 PM | 100

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