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Syria: The U.S. Is Unwilling To Settle – Russia Returns For Another Round
The Obama administration does not want peace in Syria. The Russians finally have to admit to themselves that the U.S. is no partner for a continuation of a cease fire, a coordinated attack against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda and for peace in Syria. Indeed, as Lavrov explains, the U.S. has again asked to spare al-Qaeda from Russian air strikes even as two UN Security Council resolutions demand its eradication. Huge supply convoys (vid) from Turkey are again going to the "rebels" who will, as always, share them with al-Qaeda and other terrorists.
The current renewed Syrian Arab Army attack towards Raqqa is being obstructed not only by sandstorms but also by a timely attack of al-Qaeda, Ahrar al Sham and Turkestan Islamist Party forces against government positions in the south Aleppo countryside.
More than 1,000 militants have begun an offensive against Syrian army positions southwest of Aleppo, the Russian ceasefire monitoring center in Syria said in a statement on Saturday.
The center also reported civilians in Aleppo as saying armed groups partly made up of Turkish soldiers had appeared north of the city.
The exactly same scheme happened in March and April when a move towards eastern Syrian by the Syrian army had to be stopped to prevent further losses against al-Qaeda south of Aleppo. It seems obvious that these moves U.S. supported forces are planned to prevent any gains of the Syrian government in the east.
Today Lavrov again talked to Kerry:
"Lavrov expressed concern about attempts to delay the resumption of political negotiations under various pretexts," the [Russian foreign] ministry said.
As the U.S. is unwilling to settle the Syria conflict Russia will have to retake the initiative.
Is this a trap? Does the U.S. want Russia to sink into a quagmire in Syria? That is certainly a possibility but it is hard to see how this could happen when Russia comes back with a vengeance and strikes hard and fast.
Russian airstrikes against terrorists in Syria have tripled over the last days. Additional resources have been silently dispatched:
Without stirring a buzz similar to that of their first military intervention in Syria, the Russians this week disembarked ground forces and paratroopers in the port of Tartus to support more than 3,000 Russian volunteers dispatched to the region in the past few weeks, in a bid to revive coordination with the Syrian army. … Syrian sources stated that the Russian joint command staff, which coordinated aerial support operations last fall, had returned to the Hmeimim military base in Latakia province to begin preparations for new operations.
One can only hope that the Russian leadership has learned its lesson. That it will not stop to pursue the enemy for no political gain when it is again, as it likely will soon be, on the run.
I think I’ll have to go all the way back to dumbass@1 and agree with the notion of a trap. Not a trap R+6 necessarily set for Team Chaos, but one they are in nevertheless and are unable to extricate themselves quickly, willingly or easily from the pit. Putin peers over the edge every few weeks and asks if they need a hand, which they always refuse. Puting shrugs his shoulders and says, “OK. Well, good luck down there…”
I’ll have to disagree with many that Russia was willing to let Syria be partitioned or didn’t care one way or the other. A western or Alawite Syria with Damascus is simply not viable. Water, gas, oil and agriculture are all in what would be either Kurdistan or Sunnistan. A western Syria could not both recover from the war and rebuild any kind of economy without those resources. Russia knows that and would not let it happen, although I admit they send mixed signals at times. I know Russia has no intention of creating some kind of parasitic welfare state merely to claim Tartus. Putin stubbornly insists Assad (or whomever) stands on their own two feet and run the country.
What really cemented my idea of U.S. desperation and refusal to disengage are the latest Raqqa/Manbij campaigns. Great ideas, but the U.S. still doesn’t have an army for either one. I still insist the SDF’s YPG/YPJ will never set foot in Raqqa or Manbij. It’s not their fight. They’ll help US proxies get close, but that’s it. Unfortunately, that’s not enough. If the Kurds are not willing to fight and die to retake those cities, then it’s just not going to happen.
The Arab SDF forces the US did manage to scrounge up seem to be a collection of power-seeking ex-FSA ideologues and a motley crew of displaced or unemployed Arab fighting-age men looking for some kind of job/life back in either city after they are liberated. The first group are reliable fighters, the second – well, not so much. The biggest problem with these Arab SDF forces are that it’s up to them, alone, to take Raqqa and Manbij. This is maybe a few hundred for Raqqa (despite inflated claims otherwise) and even less for Manbij. They are only interested in ‘their’ cities, not the grander US schemes to retake all the Arab cities in northern Syria.
The original Manbij effort, if anyone recalls, started with Tishreen Dam months ago. THAT group was suppose to retake Manbij, remember? What happened? Well, nobody showed up. The few hundred Arab SDF were stretched far and thin and took casualties moving up from the dam. A few token Kurds and a handful of US SF or JTACS, but no YPG/YPJ. The entire effort stalled. CENTCOM quietly changed their tune and said that was only the first phase or some such nonsense.
So what’s this second, current push? Maybe a hundred more Arab SDF guys crossing the Euphrates further north at the ruined Qarah Qawzaq bridge site. They did manage to ferry a couple of pieces of armor (APC and a light tank), and maybe a dozen or two technicals (pickups with anti-aircraft guns) across. US air strikes took out *some* of the Sajur River bridges so Jarabulus headchoppers would have difficulty joining the party, but the rest of the airstrikes ended up taking out laughable high-value targets like an ISIS pickup truck or a sniper position. In other words, they have no intel and no real air targets. It’s a hundred door-kickers behind an APC looking for ISIS.
In the mean time, those ground forces have been inching along taking over tiny, half-deserted villages a few km from the river. This is suppose to be some kind of second, northern front to move on Manbij. The entire idea is preposterous – I doubt they’ll even reach Manbij, much less be able to take it from a well-armed, heavily dug-in ISIS. On top of that, this second front already suffered a number of casualties and injuries from an ISIS car bomb. They’re suppose to hook up with the refortified Tishreen Dam crew, but it’s not clear that that has even happened. Not that it would make much difference – these guy are spread way to thin and vulnerable as hell. Even with the Tishreen crew, there is no way on earth a couple hundred guys with air cover are taking back Manbij.
Raqqa is even more of a non-starter. The current SDF campaign is actually the ‘Northern Raqqa’ campaign. The YPG/YPJ SDF is helping take back the little villages north of Raqqa, but then what? A force of a few hundred Arab SDF (ex-Raqqa Revolutionary Front) guys are going to somehow take back the ISIS capital? Really, CENTCOM? It’s damn embarrassing (aside from being unconstitutional and treasonous).
Honestly, the longer Russia just sits and waits, the less credibility the U.S. will have among the ex-FSA Syrian Arabs and the Kurds. CENTCOM burns through time and equipment and maybe American lives, yet accomplishing nothing. Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s support is increasingly meaningless as their proxy armies disappear in the sand. ISIS will eventually scurry back to Turkey, Jordan or Libya and be someone else’s problem.
When the smoke clears, Russia will still be there to help Syria pick up the pieces. Team Chaos will be off to their next misadventure somewhere else.
Posted by: PavewayIV | Jun 5 2016 7:46 utc | 38
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