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Pundits Knew It Early On – Trump Could Not Win The Nomination
- The Super-Quick Implosion of Donald Trump’s Candidacy – Huffington Post, Andy Ostroy, June 30 2015
- Donald Trump is surging in the polls. Here's why he won't win. – Vox, Andrew Prokop, July 2 2015
- Trump won't win, but yes, he matters – CNBC, Ben White, July 17 2015
- Trump campaign implodes after McCain war hero insult – New York Post, Aaron Short, July 18 2015
- Trump won't be the nominee: Want to bet? – Journal Sentinal, Christian Schneider, August 11 2015
- How Trump Loses – BloombergView, Jonathan Bernstein, August 13 2015
- Why Trump Will Never Make the Ballot – Daily Beast, Stuard Stevens, August 20 2015
- Here's why Donald Trump won't win the Republican presidential nomination – Guardian, Tom McCarthy, August 22 2015
- Nate Silver: 'Calm down,' Donald Trump won't win the GOP nomination – Business Insider, September 10 2015
- 5 Reasons Donald Trump Can't Win The GOP Nomination – US News, Brian Walsh, Spetember 15 2015
- Eight Reasons Trump Can’t Win – The Stream, Warren Smith, September 16 2015
- Mitt Romney: Donald Trump won’t win the GOP nomination – New York Post, October 1 2015
- Trump will lose, or I will eat this column – Washington Post, Dana Milbank, October 2 2015
- Why Donald Trump Won’t Win – Political Wire, Taegan Goddard, October 18 2015
- Numbers show why Trump can’t win – Yakima Herald, Cokie and Steven Roberts, November 30 2015
- No, Donald Trump Won’t Win – New York Times, David Brooks, December 4 2015
- Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention – FiveThirtyEight, Harry Enten, December 4 2015
- The Donald won't win as a Republican or as an independent – US News, Lara Brown, December 11 2015
- Yes, Donald Trump will implode. Here's why. – Vox, David Roberts, January 8 2016
- Keith Olbermann Returns And Perfectly Explains Why Donald Trump Will Not Win – Politicus USA, Jason Easly, March 25 2016
Kasich Dropping Out Of Presidential Race; Donald Trump Assured GOP Nomination – NPR, May 4 2016
And now keep this in mind:
Paul Danahar @pdanahar
Hmm, all the reasons given for why Trump could NEVER win the nomination are now being used to explain why he’ll NEVER win the presidency
There are three questions here: why Trump won the nomination, why the “pundit class” was so wrong, and what next.
One secret of Trumfp (Trump’s triumph) is that for all “Fox and talk-show” propaganda that GOP electorate absorbed, they did not care about the issues that “everybody” assumed that they care about, like the gender or transgender of restroom visitors. (Cruz tried to capitalize on the restroom issue.) In the same time, they cared about jobs “exported to China and Mexico”, and again, it was assumed that not only Trump is totally wrong on that but that GOP electorate is “free market”.
It kind of boils down to the quality of jobs available in USA for those who are neither best, nor brightest, nor sufficiently connected. The pay, the lack of stability, dreadful conditions etc. Industrial jobs (and many service jobs) were outsourced abroad and domestically, increasingly given to illegal (or until recently illegal) workers. Many GOP candidates ignored the issue of illegal competition on the labor market, only Trump addressed in some fashion the loss of outsourced jobs.
With several good issues, Trump became immune to criticism. I do not watch TV, but from editorials etc. I know that the copious coverage that he got included A LOT OF CRITICISM. And most of the followers of MoA found Trump appealing on the basis of that very criticism (I still do not like him, but some articles criticizing Trump almost made me a believier). There is a huge disconnect between the ruling class and hoi polloi here. The better educated part of the public managed to understand the propaganda, but the less educated ones had only sketchy familiarity, so they relied more on their daily experience.
Why pundits got is so wrong. This is a bit complex. If David Brooks got ANYTHING right, that would be an astonishing event in itself. A number of articles explaining why Trump cannot win were transparent wishful thinking, there is a genre of “prognostication” that essentially described the world as it should be (while the world, being material, is not), in other words, it was more of a rhetorical device than a true prediction. But Nate Silver is actually in the narrowly understood forecast business, and ordinarily he was pretty good at it, so something less than usual happened.
Number one, while not obvious back in September 2015, the disconnect between the elite and hoi polloi increased in recent years. Why voters were happy with some pablum in 2010, 2012, 2014 and suddenly are less than happy? It was more an erosion than a sudden event, And the “technical analysis” assumes that if a product had really such an amazing sales potential than it would be successfully marketed already — it is not like Trump made an amazing discovery. Lastly, what I would not predict in the Fall of 2015 is that GOP candidates would refuse to reposition their message to counter Trump, or fail to cooperate. My interpretation is that GOP leadership does not exist. There was no one who could make decisions to change message, cooperate etc. Instead, rich backers of various candidates had their pet causes and the candidates sticked to those causes as long as they were getting money. Until recently, there was leadership that had a web of contacts with so-called bundlers and with political rank and file, but after Citizens United the leadership became dispensable.
Now, the question what next. Hillary Clinton polls in match-ups about 7% below Sanders who capitalized on the core issues where elite became disconnected, while Hillary is very much at the center of that elite. However, on “points of style”, Trump is unacceptable to a large sector of voters. Hillary already started to change some positions, e.g. stop advocating the newest round of “improved trade agreements”. Furthermore, since Democrats are underdogs, they are more prone to strategic adjustments in their positions.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 4 2016 21:17 utc | 27
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