Putin: Withdrawal Of Russian Forces From Syria Starting March 15

March 14, 2016

This is an extremely interesting and likely very smart move. Putin again catches everyone off guard.

TASS reports:

Putin orders to begin withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria from March 15

March 14, 20:40 UTC+3

The Russian leader hopes the withdrawal of Russian troops will become a good motivation for launching negotiations between political forces in the country

MOSCOW, March 14. /TASS/. Putin orders Russian defense minister to begin withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria from March 15.

The Russian president said he hopes the start of the withdrawal of Russian troops will become a good motivation for launching negotiations between political forces of that country and instructed the foreign minister to intensify Russia’s participation in organization of peace process in Syria.

Via other sources Putin said: The armed forces achieved their goals in Syria. The two Air Force and Naval bases in Syria will stay and operate normally. The move was in agreement with the Syrian government.

I believe that, for this to have happened, there must be a deal in place with the U.S. to wind up the Syria situation. What did Putin get in return?

And what units will actually pull out? Three military cooks departing while civilians take up their jobs?

The tide of the war on Syria has changed. There is no longer a danger that Assad will lose the fight.

There were some Russian artillery and special forces units taking part in the ground operations in north Latakia. Latakia is now mostly cleaned up and the Russian bases there are no longer in danger. (The S-400 air defense will of course stay.) Will these troops now be pulled out?

Or is this, as announced, an "incentive" to put some urgency on progress in the Geneva negotiations? (An "incentive" that can be taken back should it not have the intended results.)

One can also think of this as a message to the U.S. to get serious: "Don't take our help in fighting ISIS for granted. We can simply secure Assad and leave. Then you alone will have to clean up the Jihadi mess you created."

Posted by b on March 14, 2016 at 17:56 UTC | Permalink

Comments

It certainly is a surprise but can one feel confident to “trust” any backdoor agreement with the regime-change crowd? What kind of agreement has shelved the jihadi war of regime change or chaos? If the “withdrawl” represents a head-fake with no reduction in capabilities, to which I have not seen any details yet, then it is a masterful stroke otherwise something is not right.

Posted by: thirsty | Mar 14 2016 18:08 utc | 1

Vlad smelled the trap?

Posted by: nmb | Mar 14 2016 18:17 utc | 2

I was going back to find out what “Mission Accomplished” translates for Putin:
In 2015 the first objective was stabilizing Syria’s government and preserving a functioning Syrian state by degrading the Wests’proxy terrorists. A second objective was reasserting Russia’s power in the ME. A third objective, using Syria as a card against the U.S./E.U and their attacks on Russia via the Ukraine.
So, are these the only objectives? If so, which objectives were achieved for Putin to declare a withdrawl. It would seem to me that at least two of the three are tenative.

Posted by: thirsty | Mar 14 2016 18:21 utc | 3

There were some Russian artillery and special forces units taking part in operations in Latakia. Latakia is now mostly cleaned up. Will some of these troops leave?

I’d like believe this to be the case. Securing Latakia was one of the reasons for the Russian intervention. With that objective virtually within reach of the Syrian government, there’d be little reason to keep that many soldiers and costly equipment in Syria.

Posted by: never mind | Mar 14 2016 18:21 utc | 4

LOL! This is disastrous. Who wants to take bets? I say the ceasefire will not hold, and Putin won’t be there for Assad any longer. Turkey, USA and KSA will redouble their efforts to take Syria, and likely succeed
I say Putin has either been compromised, or is a complete blooming idiot

Posted by: aaaa | Mar 14 2016 18:22 utc | 5

Just heard the News from RT and I’m surprise. I can’t believe Putin make any deal. Putin must understand Amerikka can never be trusted and That include all EU lapdogs.
Only recently, European Union could impose sanctions on Iran over its recent ballistic missile tests, France’s foreign minister said on Sunday…. After Iran bought billions dollars of Airbus aircraft and last year the Mistral helicopter carriers debacles..Damn it! Iran are soo stupid and Putin getting old?

Posted by: Jack Smith | Mar 14 2016 18:32 utc | 6

Moscow Times is an anit-Putin paper. Putin has had very limited objectives in Syria as he was willing to settle for peace before.
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-warns-assad-vow-retake-syria-080119489.html

Posted by: Les | Mar 14 2016 18:39 utc | 7

Putin = Chess Grandmaster
Barry & Kerry = tenderfoot level whack a mole artists

Posted by: ALberto | Mar 14 2016 18:39 utc | 8

@6 settle.. for what?
No sizable military objectives were obtained,
the ceasefire was called at the most successful instant of the campaign,
the 10s? of thousands of armed, violent, squatting foreign jihadists are STILL THERE.
And to top it all off – Putin now sounds like Obama – after last week’s affirmation of Syria’s sovereignty.
IMHO Syria is now de-facto partitioned, with all the ingredients for an even bigger disaster for the future.
Mission un-ccomplished

Posted by: aaaa | Mar 14 2016 18:48 utc | 9

The only downside to this announcement is that all the “hurray patriots” in all the comment threads will rush to shed crocodile tears and fret that Russia has made a terrible mistake. The “concern” will be palpable, almost cloying.
Apart from that noise, this has to be good news. Didn’t Russia say it expected to be there about 3 months or so? It was always a limited window. Iran has, I believe, several hundred thousand troops ready to pour into Syria if the SAA needs help. But I’m not sure it does.
This was always about restoring Syria to a working state, and restoring the advantage to the Syrian army, which it undoubtedly now has. I gather the air strikes will continue, which is what gave SAA its advantage. If Russia can begin to withdraw unneeded ground force, the message to me would be that Syria is fully on top of its sovereign tasks. I suppose we can expect someone to test this with some provocation, and I expect to see the Syrians put it down.

Posted by: Grieved | Mar 14 2016 18:49 utc | 10

Thanks b…this seems to square with Ghassan Kadi’s analysis at the saker, although he see’s American foreign policy washing it’s hands of the Syria quagmire.
I don’t know with the 10 zillion fine levied on Iran that James mentioned in the previous thread. It does seem plausible that the PLA could sell out Palestine for an ersatz postage stamp state, with the Saudis as sensible brokers, and a shrieking bright faced lady preparing the events of Ragnarok.
Hopefully this is just another shining example of Russian diplomacy.

Posted by: Nana2007 | Mar 14 2016 19:02 utc | 11

Well now I know what was this phony ceasefire all about, because it was not about ceasefire that SAA did not need especially that they recruited over 100k new soldiers and weapons are flowing from Russia all the time guarded by the Black see fleet.
It was a Russia-US deal probably normalization of bilateral relations, cut down on arms race, may be removal of sanctions in return of vague unsubstantiated promises of peace in Syria not worth paper they are written on. And most of all effective political abandonment of Assad and millions Syrians who believed in Russians. Clear damage to Putin reputation. Was this because of failing economy?
I hope not, but if Putin believes that US gave up on partition of Syria, I will lose all the faith in him unless it is a realpolitik, feeding Assad to a lion (al-Assad).
Was it worth it? two soldiers dead and plane-full of innocent Russian tourists decapitated?
Finally Vlad cleared the fog:
https://syrianwarupdate.wordpress.com/2016/02/17/clear-the-fog-vlad/

Posted by: Kalen | Mar 14 2016 19:09 utc | 12

Assad, beware the Ides of March.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Mar 14 2016 19:16 utc | 13

American Corporate Media (MSNBC and CNN) is reporting that it is a complete withdrawal of Russia’s military forces including the Air Force. If Russia is keeping its naval base and air bases then I do not see this as a capitulation to Western forces. Is anyone else shocked that the Corporate Media is once again either wrong or lying about Russia’s role in the Middle East?
The US will not be able to dislodge Assad with out dislodging Russia from their bases. IMHO, Putin is telling the world that Russia has turned the tide in Syria. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah can handle mop up duty with Russian air support.
I’m no expert but it seems a lot easier to move a battalion of soldiers than set up an air base. If Russian assets are in trouble then Russia can move ground forces into Syria faster than it can move heavy equipment. Russia has also shown that it has the ability to project force into the Middle East from its own territory.
When I first heard of this I thought that Putin was withdrawing and losing face but it looks like he is winning once again.

Posted by: AnEducatedFool | Mar 14 2016 19:18 utc | 14

I have no doubt that Putin knows what he’s doing. The problem is, what is it? One interpretation might be that he wants to undercut the Americans at the peace talks. And if they don’t agree, he will start again. But I doubt that, as Putin sticks by his decisions. Another might be that he thinks he has enough commitments to truce from the non-Islamist opposition. Another might be that enough Russian air will remain to help against Da’ish. The one explanation that can be excluded is that he is giving up, as Kerry will tell us. Bit of a mystery for the moment.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 14 2016 19:18 utc | 15

There is going to be a new war in Lebanon with Israel and Russia wants no part of it. That is why they are getting out now, they don’t want to have any more troops there than is needed. Putin is a genius.

Posted by: Fernando Arauxo | Mar 14 2016 19:25 utc | 16

@14 it’s not a complete withdrawal – http://tass.ru/en/politics/862267

Posted by: h | Mar 14 2016 19:28 utc | 17

Did b stop his meds ? So Syrian sovereignty doesn’t count and what matters is that only Assad gets to stay in power ? Is that a kind of sick joke.
The US gets to invade Syria with two military bases stolen from the Syrian people and with more likely coming. And all this will do is further encourage the Turkish state terrorists, Isreali genocidal maniacs, Saudi paid jihadists and the evil US empire. Oh, but I forgot, making a surprise move is better than good strategy Itself !!!
Read the propaganda lies about how 1500 people in Syria have been killed by chemical attacks and most of that has been the Assad government ! Yeah there’s an agreement alright, and the empires agreemeant is to spew lies to create the demand for the military/jihadi overthrow the Syrian government, while the idiot Putin withdraws more troops.

Posted by: tom | Mar 14 2016 19:30 utc | 18

Kerry will approach Peace Talks as an ‘EXCEPTIONAL’ being. STEP ONE – Assad must go!
Kerry et al will have to deal directly with the Syrian Federal Government led by President Bashar al Assad and his various deputies and ministers.
Hey Kerry! That tingly feeling in the area of your anal pore. It is your own petard Dude. Heh!
Why wouldn’t Russia call off the hounds? They have basically ground the opposition to hamburger meat and rendered that opposition a non factor.
Just my opinion.

Posted by: ALberto | Mar 14 2016 19:31 utc | 19

Supposing that this withdrawal isn’t a sellout or a completely idiotic thing, does anyone care to speculate what it may mean?
Maybe there is some big deal behind the tables with some opposition groups or something to actually make peace? Is Russia really in big economic shit and it can’t afford the campaign? Etc…

Posted by: Tod | Mar 14 2016 19:36 utc | 20

I can’t see anything short of a complete selling out by Russia for Western acceptance.
Hezbollah will probably be attacked soon, and a conglomeration of fiefdoms called Sunnistan will soon emerge within Syraq.
Iran should have a day of mourning today!

Posted by: aaaa | Mar 14 2016 19:44 utc | 21

@20 Doesn’t really sound like what Russia is being doing for some time. They entered the mess in the first place, I doubt they only did it to show their might.

Posted by: Tod | Mar 14 2016 19:48 utc | 22

re 16 Araxo

There is going to be a new war in Lebanon with Israel and Russia wants no part of it.

That one, no. If the Russians thought that was in prospect, they would stay, and stabilise the situation, even though they wouldn’t participate.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 14 2016 19:51 utc | 23

re 20

I can’t see anything short of a complete selling out by Russia for Western acceptance.

If you think that you’re a fool. Putin will not sell out Asad.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 14 2016 19:58 utc | 24

Putin hopes the withdrawal of Russian forces will be a motivator for the peace process. That is surely wishful thinking, the Saudi backed opposition have said there can be no agreement with Assad in place, or preferably dead. This together with the US even now talking of funding and arming more “moderate” opposition groups. This cannot but embolden the Assad opposition in all its forms. As to placating the West, you must be joking, they will redouble their disruptive efforts. There must be some agreement with the US of which we are not privy, otherwise, this does not make sense.

Posted by: harrylaw | Mar 14 2016 20:00 utc | 25

On Wednesday, militias allied with the Syrian Army ambushed a convoy of terrorists in the Sweida province, confiscating the weapons they were attempting to transfer to terrorists in the Eastern al-Badiya desert. Among the weapons left behind after the battle were mortar shells, land mines, RPG shells, ammunition of machineguns and Israeli-made LAU missiles.
How do the terrorists in Syria get those Israeli-made weapons? FARS News Agency, via the Times of Israel, has the answer:
In a video uploaded to YouTube by the Executive Sharia Council in the Eastern Daraa region, a court established by al-Nusra in Southern Syria, Sharif As-Safouri, the commander of the FSA’s al-Haramein Battalion, admitted to having entered Israel five times to meet with Israeli officers who later provided him with Soviet anti-tank weapons and light arms, Times of Israel reported.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/syrian-ceasefire-israels-collusion-with-the-moderate-terrorists-exposed/5514087

Posted by: shadyl | Mar 14 2016 20:08 utc | 26

@ 5 aaaa
Oh yea of little faith. After more than 50 years, do you think Mr. Putin would up and walk away to turn a victory into a defeat.
Most of `Russian advisors for retraining the SAA are pulled. SAA is strengthened and have found new morale, given strength in equipment – new and refurbished. All on schedule as the RF intervention was announced for 6 months, max. The S-400 and submarines -land sea air defense remain in place.
@ 6 Jack Smith
Putin getting old?
No. He is still at his grand master chess game while Obama is attempting to disavow his involvement in Libya. https://www.rt.com/op-edge/335343-obamas-attempt-disclaim-libya/
The key phrase in Mr. Putin’s announcement; “Moscow will, however, maintain a military presence in Syria, and a deadline for complete withdrawal has not yet been announced. Putin also indicated that Russian forces will remain at the port of Tartus and Hmeymim airbase in Latakia.
“Our bases of operations — our naval base in Tartus and our air base at Hmeymim — will operate as usual. They should be protected from land, sea, and air,” Putin said.
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160314/1036274550/putin-orders-syria-withdrawal.html
The Syria intervention was a rehearsal, a message we are serious, have had enough. The US/UK/EU took note and are bloated with envy. RF is not a regional player and behind the noise there is this: the US has finally agreed to work with Russia:-
Ren-TV via Southfront
Russia is ready to work with America on liberating Raqqa : Lavrov
https://southfront.org/russia-is-ready-to-work-with-america-on-liberation-of-raqqa-lavrov/

Posted by: likklemore | Mar 14 2016 20:13 utc | 27

Big Oil doesn’t like this cheap oil/gasoline/jet fuel and etc.. Obviously the fat bastards have been whining that they’ve been forced to go along so that Russia could be damaged economically.
Big Oil is one of the legs of the Vampire Squid/Deep Gov/MIC which runs the world.
They’ve had the other Vampires – Goldman Sachs and etc shorting the piss out of oil prices way too low for comfort.
Look for gas prices to increase rapidly in the coming weeks.

Posted by: fast freddy | Mar 14 2016 20:14 utc | 28

re 24

Putin hopes the withdrawal of Russian forces will be a motivator for the peace process.

I’m sure that’s right, to a degree. There’s probably an element where he thinks the Syrians have had enough of war. He could be right.
What I haven’t figured out is how Putin plans to deal with Nusra and Da’ish, the Islamists beyond negotiation.

Posted by: Laguerre | Mar 14 2016 20:18 utc | 29

The ‘facts on the ground’ would leave a thinking person with the opinion that Hizbollah having spent treasure and blood defeating the ‘entity’ that stole many billions of dollars of Syria’s and Iraq’s natural resources and also desires to balkanize Syria and Iraq so that these natural resources will be more easily and cheaply appropriated, has sacrificed but not in vain. Look for a Syria/Iran/Iraq/Lebanon/Kurdistan combined mutual defense pact with Russian military bases ala Syria.
I sit here and wonder? Will the new Wall around Jerusalem be missile and bunker buster proof?
Just my opinion.

Posted by: ALberto | Mar 14 2016 20:20 utc | 30

Lovely news on the first day of Lent.

Posted by: juliania | Mar 14 2016 20:24 utc | 31

March 14, 2016 – Today’s you cannot make this stuff up winner is …
“Meanwhile, many of the Islamic State terrorists have been fleeing Syria heading in the south into Jordan. At the same time in recent weeks Saudi Arabia has intensified its interventions to destabilize Jordan and Lebanon in a last gasp ploy to relocate, regroup and reconstitute its terrorist safe zones within territory of Syria’s Arabic neighbors. Saudi Arabia entertains the objective of forcing Lebanese Hezbollah troops from the Syrian front back home to deal with Saudi induced instability in Beirut. No doubt this covert action by US main Muslim allies in the Middle East is part of Kerry’s “Plan B.”
Then several weeks ago Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and United Arab Emirates abruptly ordered its citizens back home and placed a travel ban to Lebanon. With its capital Beirut only 50 miles from Damascus, this move created speculation over the hyped up, but temporarily delayed plan of invading Syria with the Saudi led 34-Sunni nation “antiterrorist” coalition, of which twenty of those nations sent up to 350,000 troops to northern Saudi Arabia allegedly just now completing several weeks of military exercises.
On Saturday the negotiator of the main Syrian opposition group still called for Assad’s removal by either resignation or death as the precursor to a transition government.”
source – http://www.globalresearch.ca/turkey-invades-syria-on-the-eve-of-geneva-peace-talks/5514006

Posted by: ALberto | Mar 14 2016 20:30 utc | 32

I’d say here President Putin is setting an example for the world. Go in, fix the problem with necessary force and then draw down.
Nothing says that Russia cannot be drawn back into the conflict. Imagine the propaganda coup when some idiot Turkish or Saudi brigade attacks the Russians again: if it’s severe enough VV Putin will be obliged to announce an immediate operation. As most of the assets are still in the field, it’s a small matter to deliver. Moreover, Russia has shown it has fantastic long range strike capability both by missile from the Caspian Sea as well as by air with long range bombers.
Withdrawal is not untrue but those in the know realise it’s just to the next room.
I imagine if Russia’s patience is tested again, the next round will be much bloodier for the jackals and lackeys at the door. Even Israel might rue a rash demonstration of force.
Remember Sun Tzu: the real power of an army is in not using or exhausting it.

Posted by: Uncoy | Mar 14 2016 20:43 utc | 33

thanks b… i see it as a wise chess move in prep for more…
@ 2 nmb… thanks for the link.. i agree with the last paragraph, but believe the suicide terrorist card is primarily a result of the wahabbi cult… if i am correct in this, eventually the world will have to confront the puritanical religious cult that is bad news for everyone and especially islam.. isis + sa – both head chopping cults motivated by the same whacked out religious ideology..
@5 aaaa. it’s just one of many more moves to come and as i see it a good one too for putin.. and @20.. we see it very differently..
@8 alberto..i agree with you..
@15 laguerre… i think putin/russia are biding time til later, waiting on how things unfold in the short to mid term…
@16 fernando.. you might be right about lebannon war.. that’s a 64,000 question..
@24 harrylaw.. i think one has to act in good faith even if surrounded by players who act in bad faith. i think it is too early to tell, but in itself is a good pr move – something the west has forgotten how to do and of course even when they get the pr right, it is never backed by actions on the ground..
@27 fast freddy.. you might be right on the oil/gas price move in coming weeks/months..

Posted by: james | Mar 14 2016 20:50 utc | 34

Peace talks to succeed are just fairy tales. Russian activity altought not that expensive does cost money. Soon there will be elections and up till now the mission is seen as a success with the primary objectives (decapitation of Syrian entity averted, safety of its bases in the mediteranean and Russian military hardware showcase) having been reached. So now they want to go back to a more leading from behind role just like the US did who left Afghanistan and Iraq but never actually did. The most active anti-Syrian actor Turkey is now also in the middle of a war with not only the Kurds domestically and abroad in Syria and Iraq but also with radical islamists who have increased attacks domestically which in the coming time will be comparible to the spill over attacks Pakistan has and is still facing from its interference in Afhanistan. If Turkey would try to avert this by posing too much of a danger to the Syrian central authority, Russian military presence would come back to the forefront.

Posted by: borealis | Mar 14 2016 20:51 utc | 35

Thus the highest form of generalship is to balk the enemy’s plans, the next best is to prevent the junction of the enemy’s forces, the next in order is to attack the enemy’s army in the field, and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.
Sun Tzu

Posted by: From The Hague | Mar 14 2016 20:56 utc | 36

From The Hague @35
“and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.”
Sun Tzu’s wisdom, considered my many as timeless in its logic, never anticipated the use of Guided Missiles, Bunker Buster Bombs and tactical nukes that have already been used by several government’s militaries in the Middle East combat theater.

Posted by: ALberto | Mar 14 2016 21:06 utc | 37

If Turkey happens to be the target, the trap’s been baited.

Posted by: Penelope | Mar 14 2016 21:11 utc | 38

Happy Maslenitsa, Comrades!
But seriously, Putin is burnishing the fck out of his legacy. As he should.

Posted by: L Bean | Mar 14 2016 21:18 utc | 39

@ 37 Penelope
You mean?: when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away
All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu

Posted by: From The Hague | Mar 14 2016 21:18 utc | 40

This shocked me really. I think you’re right that some kind of a deal was worked out. Note that this morning Obama announced this:
“In his speech to ambassadors, Obama said he’s confident he can make significant progress on foreign policy in the next 10 months.”
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/12c779488276477aa5c5e2dc7c0f0520/obama-says-hell-leave-it-all-field-foreign-policy
Yes, it’s vague, but I wonder if this, along with the big Atlantic article about his “liberation” after he decided not to bomb Syria in 2013, and his supposed pivot away from the Saudis, is an indication of a real peace agreement.
There is a podcast on Sputnik: “Syrian Peace or Syria to Be Divided Piece by Piece?” http://sputniknews.com/radio_loud_and_clear/20160314/1036238870/syrian-peace-talks-federalization.html

Posted by: Joanne Leon | Mar 14 2016 21:25 utc | 41

This is nothing to get excited about the Russians will still have the Navel base and Air base there with top troops defending Russia interest.
I doubt turkey or israel will do anything other than bitch because they both know the Russia can reach out and touch them with cruise missile or two.

Posted by: jo6pac | Mar 14 2016 21:32 utc | 42

The Saker has a detailed analysis over at his blog, but frankly I think Putin should have waited another three months or so to do this. He should have waited until it was certain that the Syrian Arab Army and its allies could take Raqaa and also that serious negotiations to resolve the crisis were actually under way.
However, as The Saker points out, Russia can come back in as fast as they did originally if things go south. They have likely pre-positioned resources in case they have to come back.
So it may work out. But personally I think the warmongers in Washington, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are coming to capitalize on the pullout in a bad way. You just know there will tons of media bullcrap about how “Putin backs down” and “Russia failed”.
I think he should have waited another few months at least.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Mar 14 2016 22:05 utc | 43

Back to Main