Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 09, 2016

The Wannabe Sultan Meets A Russian Airborne Division - What Is He Going To Do?

The Syrian campaign against the foreign supported terrorists continues with the help of Russia, Iran and other associated forces. This campaign is aimed at killing all terrorists and their associated forces as demanded by the United Nations Security Council resolution 2254.

[r]eiterates its call in resolution 2249 (2015) for Member States to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as Da’esh), Al-Nusra Front (ANF), and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al Qaeda or ISIL, and other terrorist groups, [...] and to eradicate the safe haven they have established

The U.S. for now seems to go along with that resolution and lets Syria and Russia do what they must. But there are others who are more invested in Syria than the Obama administration. The immediate aim of the Syrian forces is to close the border with Turkey and to liberate Aleppo city from the Jihadi insurgents. 6,000 additional soldiers from Iran have arrived to support that effort. A major campaign is planned to launch during next months. But the Saudis, Qataris, Turks and Israelis want to fight the Syrian government down to the last Syrian rebel and foreign mercenary. They will not give up the dreams and the very large investments they made to bring Syria down. The Syrian insurgent groups were just summoned to Ankara to receive new orders.

The Saudis made an insincere offer to send its own troops to fight in Syria. This is likely just a cover to incite others to invade the country. Turkey is the most likely candidate. Here a much read Turkish columnist, a feverish follower and mouthpiece of Erdogan, makes the crazy argument that the self defense of Turkey demands to attack Syria and its Russian and Iranian allies:

The war Tehran and Moscow are carrying out in this country is a war against Ankara. These two countries are actually directly fighting Turkey. There is no way to hide this any longer.
Turkey must directly intervene in the Syria issue. Military action included. If Iran and Russia are able to enter this country with such flimsy pretexts, if they are able to bomb even the zero point of our border, if they are exiling Syrian civilians to Turkey and attacking Turkey from Syria, then Turkey has far more reason and right than they.

Nobody would want an open war. Nobody would want a war between Russia and Iran and Turkey. They would not even wish this. But this time it is very serious. If a step is not taken today, we are going to have to fight under tougher conditions than today in the future. There is no such thing as the Syrian regime or Damascus administration anymore. The country is being re-designed and this situation is clearly threatening us, the way is directed at Turkey and we are expected to sit in silence and accept this! Which country can surrender to such a thing? There is threat, physical condition and legal reason to intervene.

Similar crazy words are written by Zionist propaganda clowns in major U.S. newspapers. A not yet existing siege of thousands of al-Qaeda/al-Nusra fighters and maybe some 40,000 civilians in insurgent held parts of Aleppo is used to demand a U.S. attack on Syrian and Russian forces. From the Washington Post:

Operating under a NATO umbrella, the United States could use its naval and air assets in the region to establish a no-fly zone from Aleppo to the Turkish border and make clear that it will prevent the continued bombardment of civilians and refugees by any party, including the Russians. It could use the no-fly zone to keep open the corridor with Turkey and use its assets to resupply the city and internally displaced people in the region with humanitarian assistance.

If the Russians and Syrians seek to prevent humanitarian protection and resupply of the city, they would face the military consequences.

A map published last Friday in the Italian 'La Repubblica' without further explanation shows a Turkish invasion of the northern part of Syria which is currently held by the Islamic State. Such an operation would allow the communication line between Turkey and the Islamic State to stay open. That line is endangered by Kurdish and Russian plans to attack the same area and to eliminate the ISIS presence there.

That communication line is important. Last year the U.S. intelligence community stated that there were some 20,000 foreign fighters with ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra and other terrorists groups in Syria and Iraq. In a congressional testimony today (pdf) the director of national intelligence James Clapper put the current number at 38,000. Turkey claims it closed its border for foreign fighters going to Syria and Iraq. If so how did those additional 18,000 foreign Jihadis enter Syria and Iraq? Did they just drop from the sky?

Those ISIS fighters are unlikely to have come as airborne troops. Russian troops though would indeed fall from the sky should Turkey do something stupid.

Russia has already warned that it was observing Turkish preparation for an invasion. Yesterday it launched an alarm drill for the airborne troops and and military transport aviation of its southern command. The 56th Guards Air Assault Brigade in Kamyshin and the 7th Guards Airborne Division at Novorossiysk were put on alarm. Both units are elite and took part in the Chechen wars. Last year a Russian airborne air defense brigade also underwent alarm training. These force, plus additional air force assets, would likely be the Russian response to a Turkish invasion of Syria. They would fight on Syrian, not Turkish ground, and would beat any medium-size Turkish invasion force to pulp.

Erdogan is blackmailing the EU with the threat to send hundreds of thousands of refugees. I do not understand why the EU, and especially the German chancellor Merkel, allow such behavior. If the EU, or even Germany alone, would use the available economic thumbscrews on Turkey its economy would scream. A warning to German tourist to not go to Turkey because of the danger of terror attacks would cost Turkey billions per year in income. Credit warnings about over-leveraged Turkish banks could be made. Export credit lines could be shortened. Agricultural imports from Turkey could come under greater scrutiny. Within a year Turkey would lose at least 10% of its GDP. But EU and Merkel seem not to mind to be laughed at by the wannabe Ottoman sultan.

The U.S. just snubbed Turkey by declaring that it does not see the Syrian Kurdish YPG as a terrorist organization. Turkey summoned the U.S. ambassador over the issue.

Erdogan seems to be losing it. He is now the most incalculable factor in the further developments in Syria. But should he invade Syria he can not count on U.S. or NATO support. What is he going to do?

Posted by b on February 9, 2016 at 19:29 UTC | Permalink

« previous page

@97 You are forgetting Armenia...

Posted by: ProPeace | Feb 10 2016 23:05 utc | 101

US creating ‘pool of blood’ in the region: Turkish president

“Hey America! How many times have we had to tell you? Are you together with us or are you with the PYD and YPG terror groups? What kind of partnership is this? Is there a difference between the PKK [the Kurdistan Workers' Party] and the PYD? Is there a difference with the YPG?” the Turkish president went on to say.

Foreign Policy Diary – Turkey's Military Intervention to Syria

Experts suggest Turkey is ready to deploy some 18,000 troops with substantial artillery and air support to occupy a 30-kilometer deep territory across the border running from the city of Jarabulus westward to the city of Azaz. The operation would cover an area under ISIS control, and it would provide a direct military assistance to terrorists and facilitate establishing of a buffer zone for the vestiges of their forces in Northern Syria. It would drastically escalate the tensions with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However, the Turkish military is fully capable of completing the first move aimed to push the SAA and the SDF from the aforementioned area and occupy a significant part of Northern Syria.

This situation leads to 2 main scenarios:

1. If the SAA with support by militia forces, Iran, and Russia isn’t able to push the Turkish military from Syria, the Erdogan’s regime will strengthen presence at the occupied territories and use gained time to receive at least air and intelligence support by NATO. In this case, the conflict could easily lead to a global war.

2. If the SAA supported by local militias, Iran, and Russia knock out the Turkish intervention forces from Syria, NATO will face the fact that Syria is de-facto liberated and the terrorists are cut from their main supplier. It could prevent a global escalation. However, the NATO countries would strengthen their presence in Iraq and use it as a foothold to launch further destructive actions against Syria. The situation will also become especially acute in Ukraine and in the Central Asia because a destabilization in these regions could be easily used against the Syria’s main allies: Russia and Iran.

b's news @84 - 'that the Turkish army would not set foot on Syrian soil without a U.N. Security Council resolution.' - is heartening.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 10 2016 23:20 utc | 102

@93 PW

Where do you get your info? Work for the US Wehrmacht/CIA? You certainly do make it sound like resistance is futile, that 'an accident' is about to happen ... that we should all kneel, facing, not Mecca but Washington DC, and kiss mother earth goodbye.

I hope that all you've laid out is disinformation.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 10 2016 23:30 utc | 103

@91 Jon Oliver has jut been doing his job as an agent of the British Empire, which has never ceased to exist ("the greatest trick that the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world that he did not exist, that was his power") and rules over the US, Israel, Turkey (Erdogan is not insane, just doing what being told), Canada, Australia, Poland (it was smart move in 2004 to keep impeding the development of its colonies in Eastern Europe and open borders for immigration so that the immigrants switch their loyalty from their old countries to the Crown - quite handy when it comes to the military confrontation with Russia, dont you think?) and many others...

How else would've he got to his current prominent propagandist position?

And his operation is based, like many others, on the simple rule that "you have to tell some truth in order to sell many lies".

Posted by: ProPeace | Feb 10 2016 23:47 utc | 104

Re: Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | Feb 10, 2016 4:23:36 PM | 97

That's all very well but you seem to dismiss Russia's legitimate right at that point to unleash a barrage of nuclear weapons on all Turkish military installations inside Turkey. Including, for instance, Erdogan's obscene palace in Ankara.

The only way to meet a Turkish invasion of Syria - for that is what it is the moment any Turkish troops cross the Syrian border, is with strength - absolute strength. I predict this would happen -as it should - the moment Turkey closed the Bosporus Straits to Russian ships.

How would Erdogan look after he reduced his country to a pile of steaming radioactive ash?

Posted by: Julian | Feb 11 2016 0:26 utc | 105

ProPeace @100

Penelope is wrong when she says : "Since at least 2012 his [Obama's] actions have been in favor of peace in Syria." Penelope postulates that the "Obama faction" is peaceful.

And your description of two "AngloZio" factions is confused and confusing. Chiefly because what constrains AngloZio/neocon action is the public reaction to the Iraqi debacle - not a kinder/gentler neo-faction.

The neocons recognized this and found a way around the public's revulsion: 'color revolutions', support for extremists (funded by KSA et al), propaganda, and covert ops. Obama has supported this agenda.

Whether the idea for Kerry's 'offer' of peace if Syria gave up its chemical weapons originated elsewhere or not, it meant nothing until Kerry actually made it.

The belief that the offer' was made inadvertently is justified by Kerry's quickly attempting to backtrack.

I believe that Obama's 'red-line' was a clear set-up. It was months in the making. And the potential for rebels to abuse the 'red-line' was known. Occam's razor leads to the conclusion that the intention was NOT to punish Assad for human rights abuses but to help the rebels to overthrow Assad. And this view is in-line with Obama's record of support for the neocon and security state agenda.

The only reason that Obama backed down from this goal was because Russia was determined to support Assad.

Either Kerry's offer was inadvertent OR it was intended as a means of backing down from WWIII. These indicate nothing more than incompetence or sanity - not peaceful intention.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 11 2016 0:41 utc | 106

@105 jules

Aw, c'mon jules. Don't get carried away.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 11 2016 0:42 utc | 107

Just as it's possible to contract double pnuemonia, it seems that a few commenters here have contracted doiuble nihilism. I'm sure there have been a few times in human history where voting was not the same as submission to slavery.

Well every time a bell rings somwhere an angel must be earning wings. Likewise, joy surely lightens our burdens, every time a true megalamaniac has his, or her, political ambition thwarted.

Anyone who cares, and who has been blogging this depraved history for more than a few years, certainly must be suffering some degree of PTSD, if not outright clinical depression.

But what can you say about a joint like the United States, a country suffering from an acute paralysis of justice. among other things? I'm not privy to what the Masters of the Universe have in mind; but I am just impertinent enough to warn them about arranging a presidential contest between two Beasts from the Pit.

That's where Bernie comes in (as flawed as he may be). A conversation about justice or the rule of law, a conversation about what is environmentally sustainable, about what is provident for the mutual survival of the nations on this planet, would be a respectable beginning,

Posted by: Copeland | Feb 11 2016 0:53 utc | 108

@102 jfl
"b's news @84 - 'that the Turkish army would not set foot on Syrian soil without a U.N. Security Council resolution.' - is heartening"

And how!

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 11 2016 0:58 utc | 109

SORRY I meant for my comment to go on the Clinterminator thread!

Posted by: Copeland | Feb 11 2016 0:59 utc | 110


Agreed. What are your sources for such detailed info?

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 11 2016 1:12 utc | 111

Wow! Even counterpunch is pitching the "rebels"

Posted by: ruralito | Feb 11 2016 1:24 utc | 112

Kalen @91

If Turkey (NATO) will not be able to assure air supremacy then there is no invasion.

Do they need air supremacy or just anti-air capability? Turkey/NATO may not need to have air supremacy if they have an advantage on the ground (in numbers and firepower).

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 11 2016 1:39 utc | 113


This is about the sixth time this BS 'Turkey Will Invade Syria' nonsense has been trotted out and even b had to put a disclaimer on this iteration.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Feb 11 2016 1:40 utc | 114

108 Copeland

Dear moron,

Back in 08 you were telling everyone how Obama was gonna be different, hope ' change. That turned out well, didn't it?

Here you are doing the same thing all over again. Your political intuition is clearly shit, and no one should ever listen to your idiotic pronouncements on this, or indeed any, subject. Kindly shut the fuck up, you idiot.


The People

Posted by: the people | Feb 11 2016 1:49 utc | 115

Follow-up to 106

Obama likes to contrast himself against the nasty Republicans. That makes Obama seem reasonable on social issues, foreign policy, etc.

Obama, who claims to be a progressive, rarely takes his case against the 'crazy right' to the American people. I think he does so only for GUNS (the democrats would like to disarm America). Instead, he scolds the progressive left for "making the perfect the enemy of the good".

People should not be fooled by the kayfab/kabuki. Obama is a neocon/neolib "Third-way" 'Centrist', which means that he pays lip service to the left and governs to the center-right.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Feb 11 2016 1:52 utc | 116

CNN International now running story suggesting an emergency meeting called for Thursday by Kerry may generate a "humanitarian intervention" to save the besieged citizens of Aleppo. The spin now is that it was the Russian/Syrian attack on Aleppo which ended the Geneva talks.

Posted by: jayc | Feb 11 2016 2:27 utc | 117

@Penelope 22 re factions within USA
Wondering if this description of factions rings a bell for you? (1 1/2 hour podcast re, geopolitics, oil over past 110 years up to 2010, the two oil factions in us are described at around :40-:50...but as a newbie to trying to figure this stuff out, I found the whole thing worth a listen, speaker is Charlotte Dennett)

Posted by: Bluemot5 | Feb 11 2016 2:33 utc | 118

Re: Posted by: jfl | Feb 10, 2016 7:42:23 PM | 107

If you're not prepared to use your most potent weapons, what's the point of having them?

If Turkey invades Syria they are calling Russia's bluff essentially.

Note, I am not suggesting they should revert to their use a first-step, only if Turkey escalates a response to Russian/ Syrian action by closing the Bosporus.

That is a definite act of war against Russia and requires a forceful and immediate response.

Do you really believe the West would escalate from their to global nuclear war? I doubt it.

Erdogan's folly what stand as a lesson for messing around with a nuclear power.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 11 2016 3:27 utc | 119

NATO to the rescue- should this harebrained measure become reality, i expect nato patrol boats will wash up on the shores of 'Erdogan's folly'.

Stoltenberg said naval patrols would fit into “reassurance measures” to shield Turkey from the war in neighboring Syria that already include Patriot air-defense missiles and air surveillance over Turkish territory and the coast.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Douglas Lute called on European Union governments to take the lead on civilian emergency management, with the alliance confined to offering backup. He said military planners will draw up options.
“This is fundamentally an issue that should be addressed a couple miles from here at EU

Posted by: Nana2007 | Feb 11 2016 3:56 utc | 120

@118 FYI

Posted by: ProPeace | Feb 11 2016 4:29 utc | 121

jfl@103 - "...Where do you get your info?..." - From other smart people and public web sites on the internet - anyplace but the MSM, although the MSM is a handy source for the narratives they are trying to peddle. The UK's Jordan military exercise Shamal Storm was reported, as well as the size and nature of Saudi Arabia's massive Northern Thunder exercise. The U.S. 101st Airborne deployment was addressed in DoD briefings and mil sites. The U.S. request for AWACS from NATO (supplied and manned by Germans) was reported. The NATO/NSA surveillance farm at Diyarbakir is a bit more obscure but hardly a secret. The NATO re-deployment of Patriots to Turkey was kept quiet but still made it to several publications. I usually try to post links but I'm exhausted lately - I'm experiencing challenging plumbing issues at home. Not WWIII challenging, but damn close. I hate plumbing.

"Work for the US Wehrmacht/CIA?" - I'm some guy on the internet posting on MoA. I John Nash'd a bunch of events together with yarn in my shed and thought it looked a lot like a potential Syrian invasion scheme. I expect the psychopaths involved to refuse to admit defeat in Syria and make some desperate move to slice off their Sunnistan/pipeline route. That makes me a cynic, not a spook.

You certainly do make it sound like resistance is futile, that 'an accident' is about to happen ... that we should all kneel, facing, not Mecca but Washington DC, and kiss mother earth goodbye. - The neocon chickenhawks have established a pretty good track record of massively screwing things up. Resistance IS futile - I'm just going with the flow.

I hope that all you've laid out is disinformation. - I've laid out my observations and cynical, dismal guesses about what's in store for us in the Middle East because it's relevant to the topic b posted. It's an opinion to consider, just like everyone else's. You don't have to agree. I'm not sure why you would elevate it to the level of information/disinformation.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 11 2016 4:39 utc | 122

@ PavewayIV

Fascinating posts. Very plausible.

Thank you.

Posted by: dumbass | Feb 11 2016 5:13 utc | 123

@122 paveway.. i would never characterize your comments as disseminating disinformation..i thanks you for the posts as well and think jfl might have made a mistake in his choice of words, although i can't speak for him.

Posted by: james | Feb 11 2016 6:49 utc | 124

@122 PW

Sorry about the slur on your motives. Sorry about the plumbing at your house, too. Even one link @93 would have helped. And the news was a steamroller of bad ... I see @52 now and feel a bit better, although you do seem predisposed to believe in the power of the malevolent US and to discount the power of Syria and the good guys. I suppose that's my problem when it comes down to it. And ... 'resistance IS futile' ... I can't ever buy that. Thanks for all your background, nonetheless. I hope you're wrong, of course.

When it comes down to it the US, Turkey, KSA ... they're all fighting - actually not fighting at all right now, just spreading the money around and hiring half the people to kill the other half - they're all 'fighting' electively. They don't have to fight, they all just want 'more'. The Syrians, the long-suffering Iraqis and Kurds, the Iranians all do have to fight, have to try to survive the onslaught of those with too much money, too much time on their hands to hatch their too evil schemes, and too little humanity to rein in their avarice. I hope - and believe in this instance - that the good guys, motivated by their very survival, will actually prevail. That they will stand up and make their defeat too expensive for those who are beseiging them to accomplish. That their resistance is not futile. That they will prevail and inspire all the rest of us around the world to persevere and to prevail, even against the Paveway IVs, and all the other over-priced murderous junk, and the billions of greenbacks thrown up against them today, and the rest of us tomorrow.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 11 2016 7:31 utc | 125

jfl@103 re james@124's remark. (I see that you just replied @125 but I'll toss this out as written FWIW) I was a bit snarky reacting to your comment about disinformation, and I apologize for that. I may have misinterpreted your comment as suggesting an attempt by me to intentionally spread disinformation (lies). If you were suggesting that the various scraps of information I gathered off the internet may themselves possibly be disinformation, I totally agree. And I hope my conclusions are wrong about Turkish/Saudi intervention in Syria, too.

I wouldn't toss out bits of information I thought were misleading or intentionally wrong, but I have no way of verifying some of them with any certainty. It's the internet, after all, but I try to add a hint of skepticism if I'm using a single, odd-ball source. I do try to find corroborating reports, especially if the source would be expected to have some bias. I hope I'm not so gullible as to just parrot obvious disinformation as if it were fact. That said, I'm sure everyone has noticed the conspiratorial, tin-foil-hat nutter flavor of my posts. Anyone trying to spread disinformation on the internet depends on someone like me making a bigger deal of some oddball story than it merits. Then there's the danger of looking too hard for news that (I imagine) is being suppressed or censored, when it may not be at all. But stringing all these specious 'facts' together to support ideas of some kind of grander scheme is all I really have to offer. It either falls flat on its face as preposterous or may sound plausible - up to the reader to decide. If people were going to wait until, say, a war started and then wait for CNN or the NYT to explain how it all happened, then they probably wouldn't be here to begin with.

I'll simply offer that I'm sincere in my efforts to understand what is happening in the Middle East, but at the end of the day I'm just another idiot on the internet with an opinion and bad plumbing.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 11 2016 8:08 utc | 126

jfl - "I hope - and believe in this instance - that the good guys, motivated by their very survival, will actually prevail... That their resistance is not futile.

I'm with you on the 'hope' part, but I'm too jaded by the years of arrogance, belligerence and self-serving interests that seem to have driven U.S. foreign policy for the 'belief' part. Psychopaths at the top of the heap got there because they successfully defeat the efforts of good, honest people time after time. Moral justification and righteousness always does pretty good in the movies, but is generally ineffective against psychopaths in real life. Sometimes the good guys get lucky and win. We shouldn't have to depend on it though. Psychopaths are not invincible, but fighting them with the wrong tools and techniques is futile. That's why I don't vote, but I'll save that rant for another time.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 11 2016 8:41 utc | 127

@127 PW

I doesn't make any difference what you or I hope for. We'll see what happens soon enough.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 11 2016 11:40 utc | 128

Russia offering a ceasefire in Syria slated to be implemented on March 1?

Sure, but Russia should tie any ceasefire in Syria to a concomitant ceasefire to be implemented at the same time in Yemen.

Fair's fair.

In addition, if the Russians try and impose a ceasefire on Syria/Iran/Hezbollah just as they're about to liberate Aleppo I doubt that will go down well.

If carried through it reeks of Russia still trying to buddy up with the US and its vassals rather than cause too many ruffles!

An insane policy, but what do I know.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 11 2016 15:09 utc | 129

PolicyWatch 2554
The Battle of Aleppo Is the Center of the Syrian Chessboard

Fabrice Balanche

Posted by: Virgile | Feb 11 2016 15:11 utc | 130

Wow! Even counterpunch is pitching the "rebels"
Posted by: ruralito | Feb 10, 2016 8:24:18 PM | 112

With due respect, CPunch is a hazardous place for the naiive to shop for facts, and is no stranger to disinfo. The article is shameless bullshit of which the following is typical:

These offensives are aimed at tipping the balance of the conflict decisively in the regime’s favour, destroying the nationalist-democratic opposition so that the choice of who to support in Syria is between the regime and ISIS.

What's shameless about it is that the REASON the Crusaders want Assad toppled is because his Govt IS NATIONALIST meaning Syria's wealth and assets are reserved for the exclusive benefit of Syrians - not Judeo-Christian billionaires.
Read the author's bio (it's at the end of the article). His office is probably in the same building as the Syrian Obfusticator for Human Rights.

Then have a poke around here and start bs-proofing yourself...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 11 2016 16:30 utc | 131

speaking of crazy stuff - russia rt is claiming the usa bombed aleppo yesterday.. either this is true and another attempt at finding an excuse to pin the blame on russia for a reason for turkey/nato to invade, or it is a bad joke.. speaking of info - all we have to go on is what we read about. none of us are on the ground, or in a control room somewhere, knowing where the last fighter jet with bombs was dispatched to..
here is the rt story from today -

Posted by: james | Feb 11 2016 16:45 utc | 132

none of us are on the ground, or in a control room somewhere, knowing where the last fighter jet with bombs was dispatched to..
here is the rt story from today -

Posted by: james | Feb 11, 2016 11:45:18 AM | 132

True - but some are a lot smarter than others and can work a lot of things out given a small amount of info - jfl is clearly not one of them.

This jfl fool is a propaganda-bot - you can tell by it's insistence on deliberately mislabelling, as "defeatism", every intelligent or contrary opinion it comes across

Posted by: the people | Feb 11 2016 17:28 utc | 133

the people - foff - jackass.... why do you persist? are you b's ex with ongoing resentment for being dumped? i don't get you...

Posted by: james | Feb 11 2016 17:47 utc | 134

@the people, watch your tone or the doorman will kick you out the front door..

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 11 2016 18:02 utc | 135

Grieved @33,

Thanks for your comment. I've mentioned several times, altho not on the current post, that I cannot imagine that there is not resistance w/in the US military. Unlike you, I don't seat the resistance in the degradation of military capability. I have no idea whether that is true or not. I haven't looked into it & I find it perilous to adopt any conclusion superficially presented by the media. I'm not denying it-- just professing ignorance.

However the murderous and deceitful character of US military actions cannot have escaped the notice of the men who are expected to carry out more of the same-- even, or perhaps especially, among the officer corps. Whenever I mention this-- the revulsion at immorality and dishonor-- everyone reminds me of the chain of command & how it is "impossible" to resist w/i the military. I nevertheless INSIST that is a factor in the leading of men.

The American people have not yet communicated to the armed forces that we have decided upon a change; when we have united behind the specific intent comprised in a political platform their loyalties will be w us.

Posted by: Penelope | Feb 11 2016 18:42 utc | 136

Paveway @ 93,

Thank you for summing up quite brilliantly the many threads that MUST add to something serious. Many possibilities of what it foretells. I'm going to sketch one for which I have NO substantiation, but only note as a possibility.

I note The Russian/Syrian response to the US air facility in Syria: Nil. This morning's media coverage of 9 bombs dropped in Aleppo by the US has elicited so little interest by the Russians that one might even describe their attitude as "confident".

I have insisted that the Russians are in Syria by agreement w at least the Obama faction of the US power structure. Are the Russians stupid enough to be there only to be betrayed? I don't think so. I would guess that the agreement is still in force-- that Russia & the US are together in whatever transpires next.

Is it betrayal & partitioning of Syria? I would guess not. It seems more likely to me that Saudi Arabia & Turkey are the targets, and that the US 9 bombs are a confidence-building factor for them, "There, you see, the US is in it w you; we'll support you." The US buildup close by gives them the same message, and courage.

Remember that Russia has persistently endorsed the idea that the "US coalition" is fighting ISIS, and the US media even continues to portray the US as the main fighter against ISIS! It may finally become true that US opposes ISIS-- with action.

What about Iran? The geopolitical agreement reached w Iran during the nuke deal may protect her. NATO is unlikely to wish to take on Iran, too-- at least not at the same time.

Israel? Whatever she does, the US will deny complicity. At least she will stake out the Golan more thoroughly and perhaps participate w Barzani in consolidating Iraqi Kurdistan.

It's only speculation.

Posted by: Penelope | Feb 11 2016 19:27 utc | 137

I doubt it. See recent Russian sitrep:

Posted by: Glimmer | Feb 11 2016 20:26 utc | 138

Penelope@37 - Good observations. I often try to divine the U.S. government factions and what each of them is really after. It's extremely difficult because they put on a unified face and don't attack each other in public very often. I could see Obama favoring that kind of deal. I assume the State Department has a mildly antagonistic relation with him and slightly different goals, but I tend to think more of Nuland and neocon psychopaths (or their powerful backers) representing the State Department. Maybe that's not accurate.

The CIA - I have no idea anymore. Then there's the larger Intelligence Community or whatever they call themselves (which CIA is a part, but no longer the lead agency). Then the Defense Intelligence Agency who I want to trust is doing the right things, but I have no idea. They may just be extensions of the Pentagon. The Pentagon always seems like a mixed bag, but I trust them to generally do the wrong thing every time for political reasons and their future defense industry jobs. They treat the U.S. Constitution like a doormat, and will treat U.S. citizens in a similar manner if/when the opportunity arises. All the other organizations mentioned would do the exact same thing given the chance, it's just that I expected more of the military leaders in my fantasy world. I trust U.S. soldiers to do the right thing, but nobody cares what they think.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 12 2016 0:18 utc | 139

I trust U.S. soldiers to do the right thing, but nobody cares what they think.
Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 11, 2016 7:18:53 PM | 139

That's cos they're poor people. No one cares what poor people think, not even socialists.

Posted by: Gen Martin Dempsey | Feb 12 2016 1:39 utc | 140

Bluemot 5 @ 118,

Thank you very much for that Charlotte Dennett link @ unwelcome guest. She has represented the split in the factions just as I did! Obama/Rockefeller/UK VS Bush/Cheney/neocons/probably Israel/at least part of the CIA.

You should have heard the yells here on the site! I've repeatedly stated that both factions desire a global oligarchy but differ primarily in the means employed-- or at least employed in Syria. Nevertheless my remarks are constantly being fed back to me in an entirely distorted form. Interesting that Charlotte should have found the same factions in her research from an entirely different angle.

I've been assuming that the attacks on Hillary that threaten her w indictment are an attack on her as a neocon, from the other faction. I've been thinking too that the Obama faction wd like to get the middle east chaos over on their watch in case someone of the opposite faction gets in. Thanks again.

Posted by: Penelope | Feb 12 2016 6:40 utc | 141

I just don't get what Russia's rationale for the ceasefire at this point is.
If the islamic militias are able to rearm, then it will result in assaults on the SAA/Hezb and cause needless casualties. Did USA offer Russia an offer it couldn't refuse? Did USA finally manage to bully Putni??

Also check this out - thanks to whomever it was on the iran mil forum:
Al Arabiya English Verified account

#BREAKING Saudi FM says objective is removal of Assad in Syria and "we will achieve it"

8:02 AM - 12 Feb 2016

Posted by: aaaaaa | Feb 12 2016 18:04 utc | 142


Shamal Storm in Jordan

British Army To Hold Largest Invasion Exercise In Over A Decade

"...Exercise Shamal Storm will see 1,600 troops deploy to Jordan alongside a wide variety of units from Force Troops Command and 3 [UK] Division...
...Army sources dismissed speculation that despite being held in Jordan, a region that borders war-torn Syria, the exercise was not a dress rehearsal for any British-led campaign against ISIS.

A source told The Telegraph:

“This isn’t a counter-Isil exercise. If anything, this is much more about us being prepared to join the US in Ukraine than it is in Syria."..."

‘UK military games in Jordan may be preparation for future anti-Russia operations’

...Danny Makki: It is very interesting because the fact that these war games, which are incidentally the largest war games since the US-UK invasion of Iraq, have been held in Jordan of all countries. The main army source stated that it was not an anti-ISIS operation, and that it would perhaps involve Eastern Ukraine and Eastern Europe in general. It is more likely that it is against potential Russian threats either in Syria or Eastern Europe. But the location of Jordan is quite strange: it is a very distant country from Eastern Europe, and the terrain and the geography of Jordan is completely different to that of Eastern Europe, and especially Ukraine. So, the location of the country actually presents a different picture. This could perhaps or potentially be an operation, potentially against Russian troops in Syria or in the Middle East, as opposed to Eastern Europe. And the fact 300 military vehicles would be sent to Jordan suggests that this is regarding the Middle East more than Eastern Europe, in my particular opinion.

Northern Thunder (Ra’ad el-Shamal) in Saudi Arabia

[note: the next two links are the top Google promoted ones, i.e., someone paid so you would most likely click on them rather than looking at others = the official line. Tin foil hat alert: More 'interesting' links have been demoted several pages back, if you can even get to them.]

21 countries in Thunder of the North drill in Saudi Arabia

Egypt Sends Tanks to Saudi Arabia for 'Operation Northern Thunder' Saudi Arabia: maneuvers "Raad North" begins within 24 hours with the participation of Egypt, Sudan, Jordan

Tweets for pics more link farming here.

Jordan tank transport video Will Saudi troops enter Syria via Turkey, Jordan, or both? - By Abdel Bari Atwan, Rayalyoum

More later... Back to mankind's highest intellectual accomplishment: plumbing.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 12 2016 18:15 utc | 143

@143 Such a well spoken young man and he clearly wants the best for the Syrian people.

Posted by: dh | Feb 12 2016 18:26 utc | 144

@ PavewayIV | Feb 12, 2016 1:15:05 PM | 143

... Back to mankind's highest intellectual accomplishment: plumbing.

You might be surprised how high plumbing ranks in humankind's accomplishments and how long ago. See also wiki 'Bathroom' or 'Toilet' (seems Crapper has been de-disambiguated).

Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Feb 12 2016 18:53 utc | 145

The Jordan tanks video link was messed up. The Rayalyoum link that followed was offered as a Jordanian blogger's skeptical view of the situation.

Another attempt at the Jordanian tank transport tweets with the video:
It should be just above this sentence.

Formerly T-Bear@145 - Didn't the Muslims bring modern plumbing ideas to Europe when they built their cities in Spain? I think the idea was sort of lost after Rome fell. Not sure what the Europeans in cities were doing before that for bathrooms, but they were not washing their hands with soap and water afterwards. They were waiting for the Muslims to introduce them to the idea of making and using soap and the saponification of fats. Ahh, the golden age of Islam. The Moors back then would cry if they could see what 'Muslim' means to most non-Muslims today.

dh@144 - Shame the Saudis don't direct more beheadings at the useless, Saudi royals and their sycophants in the Saudi government. I'll keep my fingers crossed that the Houthis show up some day in Riyadh and 'take care of business'.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 12 2016 20:36 utc | 146

OK, that worked. Scroll down a few tweets for the tweets with the Jordan videos. The arabic speaker is supposedly describing the date and location, along with some comment about taking out Assad. There are no corroborating news reports of this on the internet and it's impossible to verify the date or location. Mil types say it is Saudi armor.

Tin foil hat alert: The original poster's Facebook account was deleted a couple of days ago, but that's were it was originally sourced. The YouTube vids are identical to the original one linked on Facebook and the tweets are all repostings of that.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 12 2016 20:45 utc | 147

@ PavewayIV | Feb 12, 2016 3:36:51 PM | 146

The Romans had excellent plumbing, their public baths had cold, lukewarm and hot baths for the public use. Those were found throughout the empire, in Germany, Britain, Gaul and Spain and the MENA. But they copied what had been developed in Mesopotamia, Persia and Indus valley civilisations beginning something like 3,000 BCE according to one of those wiki offerings. Certainly many hygienic cultural practices would date even further back to the establishment of settled populations beginning with the advent of agriculture which would date 8,000 to 9,000 BCE or thereabouts. That is why I thought you'd be surprised at both the antiquity and level of accomplishment 'plumbing' involves. Plumbing is following in the footsteps of our ancestor's best and brightest accomplishments - and water still runs downhill for all of that.

Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Feb 12 2016 21:05 utc | 148

aaaaa @ 142,

Your concern at a ceasefire may be misplaced. Do you remember that a ceasefire in Syria specifically EXCLUDES ISIS, al Qaeda and allied forces? I didn't look up the exact language but it's something like that.

Posted by: Penelope | Feb 12 2016 21:28 utc | 149

Re: Syrian invasion from Turkey

I did not have specific examples of Turkish preparations besides noting the Jarabulus demining. The following two recent articles add some meat to the possibilities of a Turkish move.

Brian Kalman wrote up an excellent piece of analysis for South Front on the 12th:
It has a nice map of the Turkish order of battle. Jarabulus is 2nd Army's 6th Corps turf. Looks like the Turkish 5th Armored Division would be the first to the Azaz-Jarabulus Corridor party.

Metin Gurcan, a former Turkish military advisor, also did a piece on the 12th for Al-Monitor:
Can Turkey return as a player in Syria?

"...“This is the best time to enter Syria” has become the mantra of pro-government media in Turkey. Their articles justify the call for military intervention by insisting that Turkey cannot allow a Kurdish buffer state on its border controlled by the United States and Russia. They further argue that Turkey must eliminate the threat posed by the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), that it cannot afford to remain out of the game in Syria and that a refugee enclave must be created inside Syria (without allowing refugees to cross into Turkey).

Some pro-intervention commentators cite these justifications to encourage Ankara to quickly intervene militarily in the Jarablus pocket, north of Azaz-Munbij line. Well-placed military sources in Ankara who requested anonymity told Al-Monitor that many key people in Ankara view the developments in Aleppo as the last chance for Turkey to make a comeback as an effective actor in Syria. They fear that if Ankara fails to use events in Aleppo to advance national interests, Turkey will be permanently sidelined in the Syrian game..."

Interesting reference to an Azaz-Munbij Line as well as a Jarablus Pocket.

All of which proves nothing and offers no explanation for how Turkey could 'legally' invade Syria. Just that they are motivated, and have the means and are ready. Which leaves the U.S. to somehow provide the excuse. ISIS conducting mass slaughters or some kind of engineered human catastrophe (say, blowing a dam) would provide ample excuse for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to show up to 'help' with the U.S. pulling the string. See, it won't be an invasion/land-grab then. It will be an act of humanity (followed by pipelines and Assad's death).

Posted by: PavewayIV | Feb 13 2016 7:39 utc | 150

@121 ProPeace thanks for your link, it looks like a good one, going to take a while to read over. At fist glance tho, I note no Russians in the listings....

Posted by: Bluemot5 | Feb 13 2016 13:39 utc | 151

@Penelope 141
Thanks for your reply.
I am wondering about these factions. Wondering why there are neocons placed so high in Obama admin? Eg Hilary and Victoria...
Also, wondering about what became of all of those people in ME who were working for Blackwater (now called?Academie?or such)
Read Jeremy Scahill's book 'Blackwater' this summer and tho it was a few years old read it looking for clues as to how this ISIS thing erupted...(I know there are lots of strong clues elsewhere but I was wondering about Blackwater in particular)
..the biggest clue I saw was that Blackwater planned to build a huge 'state of the art' training facility in Jordan...I can't find any reference to this online. Does anyone know about this facility?
Noted in book that Eric Prince and other top positions in company described as affiliated with 'Catholic right' and Republicans...(whatever that is supposed to mean)
The book gives powerful stats re, the privatization of USA military functions, which includes the likes of blackwater...
I am thinking that this really has potential to decouple military power from the actual govt in power? And allow that power to go to anyone with money regardless of govt in power?
Do you think that the different USA factions described in Charltte Dennett podcast and your posts could be carrying out different actions on the ground in ME?
Anyone know if the site in Jordan was built?

(this was an 08 book with a '12 update) passed book along so I can't pull out any excepts....

Posted by: Bluemot5 | Feb 13 2016 13:57 utc | 152

@121 re global power structures, oops my bad. I see the Russains there. Spoke too soon! Will read it over...

Posted by: Bluemot5 | Feb 13 2016 14:02 utc | 153

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Feb 10, 2016 4:09:47 PM | 95

@66 Told Ya Said "Damn, just when everyone was predicting that this whole mess was gonna be "winding down" it looks like it's gonna actually shift up a gear."

Yeah Right The Smartass said "Looks like"? How do you figure that? Especially as..... it hasn't happened yet.

How do I figure it? cos that's what it looks like it. I realise it doesn't look like it to you, but it's not like your opinions carry any weight or anything. But thanks for offering them, cos at least I now know I can definitely add you to the "hasn't got a clue" list.
Looks like it's happening now anyway - even b finally gets it - weeks later of course but better late than never, eh?

I Said: "Even you, b, with your mad hyper-dyper super-duper predictive skillz, couldn't have predicted THAT!!!"

The Smartass replied: "Well, since this is still in the speculative stage then it's a wee bit premature to accuse b of not predicting something that has yet to actually happen."

No, when I said it weeks ago it definitely was the "predictive" stage - that's how one does "predictions" - you have to make them BEFORE they happen, otherwise they ain't predictions, they're just some windbag like you, waffling on and on

The Smartass also said: "Maybe come back when it does happen. If it happens."

Well I'm here now, and it's about to happen - see? that was another prediction, one that even your host now finally agrees with.

Predictions ain't easy, son, 'specially bout the future. If I were YOU I'd steer clear of em, cos clearly that sort of stuff is way above your pay-grade.

I Said "(Clearly no one in the whole world could have predicted that . . . especially not as far back as 3 or 4 weeks ago ;-)"

The Samrtass said ;-) indeed.

Well, you see , my Smartass friend, that was something known as "sarcasm", cos it was predicted 3 or 4 weeks ago, by me (natch) - The sarcasm wasn't even that subtle, but clearly it was a little too subtle for you. ;-)

The Smartass said: "I think you will find that this article shows that b DOESN'T think that the Turks will invade, precisely because if they did then they'd be put through a meat-grinder."

I think you'll find that You need to catch up, my smartass friend - here, lemme help ya -

The Smartass said "But, please, tell us what you think will happen in, oh, the next 4 weeks."

Oh I think you'll make more and more smartass comments, and be just as foolish looking in 4 weeks time as you are now ;-)

The Smartass said "I promise to withhold judgement until it does, you know, actually happen. Or not happen."

Yeah - While you're withholding your not-very-clued-in judgement, don't withhold inhaling at the same time, cos that won't end well (See? another prediction!) ;-) But tbh I don't really care what you do cos clearly it's not like you have any "judgement" worthy of attention.

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 14 2016 0:12 utc | 154

Good news keep going take the root out

Posted by: Kobus Barnard | Feb 14 2016 18:35 utc | 155

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