|
Syria: The Battlefield Negotiations Now Favor The Syrian Government
The Syrian army today liberated the the town Rabiah in Latakia province as well as several other villages in the area near the Turkish border. Rabiah, together with Salma which was liberated a few days ago, was one of the jihadists strongholds in the region. Russian air support and artillery (vid) was again decisive. Pictures from the town showed graffiti the "moderate" foreign supported insurgents left behind. It read "All Alawites will be exterminated".
This map shows the current frontline as well as the old frontline from where the Latakia campaign started a few weeks ago.
bigger hi-res
The jihadis evacuated all positions west of Rabiah and are on the run. Turkey closed its border to prevent them from crossing it. They will seek refuge in Kinsabba near the Jabal al-Akrad heights, their last strong point, which will be attacked next. After that the general attack will be launched at Jisr al Shanghaur in Idleb province from the west and the south after which a larger pincer attack on Idleb city is planned.
Latakia province and the Russian bases there are now secured. Opposition supply lines from Turkey are largely severed. The momentum is clearly on the side of the government troops.
In the south there the Syrian army continues to clear Sheikh Miskeen near the border to Jordan. Should the city be freed the southern insurgents supply lines from Jordan will be in jeopardy. The lines are already restricted as Jordan clamps down on militants crossing its border.
In the north as well as in the south various rebel groups started to fight each other. Clashes between various groups were reported from Daraa in the south and in Idleb between Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra groups. Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's section in Syria, is now under heavy pressure on many fronts and has called for more foreign fighters to join it. There are already strategic discussions within Nusra to end the open war and to go back being an underground guerrilla to hit at the Syrian government and other entities from behind their lines. But the guerrilla fish needs the water of the population to swim in and it is doubtful that Nusra has support of more than very few Syrian citizens.
The Syrian army also liberated Qatar (vid) from the Wahhabi Islamic State supporters. Unfortunately this Qatar was not the country at the Persian Gulf but a small town north east of Aleppo.
The Syrian government troops and some 200,000 civilians in Deir Ezzor in east Syria are under continuing heavy attacks from fighters of the Islamic State. The Syrian army sent reinforcements by transport helicopters, the Russian air force has dropped tens of tons of food for the population and Russian jets provide air support for the defenders.
In the Kurdish area in the north-east of Syria Russian specialist are working to establish another air base. The Turkish President Erdogan said such a base would not be tolerated. But what can he do besides launching an open war against Russia which Turkey would lose just like the other 17 wars it once waged against Russia. The U.S. is establishing its own base nearby to supply Kurdish forces. The Russian base will make sure that the U.S. base will not gain any permanence.
A report in the NYT describes how the U.S. organized the attack on Syria while the Saudis provided the financing at a rate of several billions per year. The report misleads as it only looks from 2013 onward. We already know that the CIA provided weapons and fighters from Libya reached Syria in late 2011 to early 2012.
But the U.S., as well as the Syrian government side, now wants the conflict to die down. It is putting a lot of effort into the next Geneva talks between some opposition groups and the government. Those opposition groups have been selected by Saudi Arabia and Russia has rejected the inclusion of the Salafi Army of Islam and the lack of representation of Kurdish groups. A compromise over this may now be possible with the Kurds and other non-Islamist opposition groups coming to Geneva as a third delegation.
But the war will not be decided through talks. The real negotiations happen on the battlefield. The Syrian government and its supporters will continue the attacks and will build on their recent successes. It is now likely that they will achieve war deciding results before the Geneva talks become serious.
@ PavewayIV | Jan 24, 2016 10:18:12 PM
Great backgrounder as always. Just one point where I take a slightly different view.
[…] ISIS continuing to attack Qamishli with car bombs suggests they’re still mad at the Kurds there about something, […]
It appears the target was the Assyrian community in the region. (AINA News)
Twin Blasts Target Assyrian Shops in Qamishli, Syria
Posted 2016-01-24 22:42 GMT
Qamishli, Syria (AINA) — Two explosions rocked an Assyrian neighborhood in Qamishli. The first targeted the Star Cafe, where a bomb was placed on a bicycle that was left in front of the store. The explosion killed 3 Assyrians and injured 20. The second blast targeted Joseph Bakery. […]
Star Cafe is near the Miami restaurant, one of three Assyrian restaurants which were bombed on December 30, 2015 (AINA 2015-12-30). 16 people were killed in those blasts, 14 of them Assyrian.
After the attacks on December 30 Assyrian security forces, known as the Gozarto Protection Forces (GPF/Sootoro), set up checkpoints around the Al-Wusta neighborhood, the site of the restaurants and a purely Assyrian neighborhood. This led to clashes between GPF and the Kurdish YPG militia, who demanded the checkpoints be removed. One Assyrian fighter and three Kurdish fighters were killed in those clashes (AINA 2016-01-12).
The Assyrian/Christian militia in and around Qamishli is considered to be largely pro-government, so ISIS attacking Assyrian businesses and suburbs in Qamishli is less an attack on Kurds, but in imho primarily aimed at killing locals loyal to the Syrian government. I don’t think the Kurds/YPG cried too many tears, or as you aptly wrote, more likely ate popcorn and watched the fireworks.
Assyrians, be that in Iraq or Syria, have had a hard time over recent centuries and are, for nearly a decade now, against the tide, trying to resist being smothered by Kurdish expansion. They are certainly not having their fingers crossed when it comes to Kurdish statehood.
Add ISIS and the Turks and you got one hell of a Mexican standoff brewing in Syria’s north eastern Al-Hasakah province, in which Qamishli is with around 200’000 people the second largest city.
Here is a bit more color on the shoot out between the YPG and GPF two weeks ago:
In the early hours of Tuesday, January 12th, members of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) conducted a large attack on Assyrian checkpoints, using more than 30 vehicles and hundreds of heavily armed Kurdish fighters against the Assyrian Gozarto Protection Forces (GPF) in the Assyrian neighborhood of Al-Wusta in Qamishli. The fighting lasted for at least three hours and ended after the Kurds called upon a Syrian government representative to mediate a cease-fire.
[…] The onslaught by Kurdish YPG fighters came after a demand by the YPG to cede control of Al-Wusta to them was refused by GPF. Al-Wusta is located in the center of the city and has no Kurdish or Arab residents. […] The attack also came in a time of increased tensions in Qamishli, less than two weeks after bomb attacks on three Assyrian restaurants, which killed more than 18 people, 14 of them Assyrians (AINA 2015-12-30). Assyrian security forces tightened security around Al-Wusta after the bombings. […]
On Saturday, January 16th, Assyrian and Armenian religious and civic representatives met with Kurdish and Arab representatives and issued a list of demands concerning the security of Christians in north-eastern Syria, in the province of Hasaka.
[…] In an interview with AssyriaTV, Ahikar Rashid, a representative of GPF who was at the meeting, said all Christian organizations had met a day earlier to formulate their concerns and demands for a sustainable peace in the province in the face of the threat from ISIS. A key demand is that Christians must independently protect themselves without control by any other political or military groups.
The population of the province of Hasaka is nearly equally divided between Assyrians, Arabs and Kurds. The city of Qamishli was almost entirely Assyrian until the early 1980s and was established by Assyrian survivors of the genocide of 1915 perpetrated by Ottoman Turks against the Christian populations of Greeks, Armenians and Assyrians. At that time many Kurdish clans acted as the henchman of the Ottoman government. It is natural that the recent developments in Qamishli recall those memories of Christians, who do not trust Kurdish expansionism and self-declared autonomy and control over the region. […]
Should Russia indeed start flying fighter planes or attack helicopters out of the Qamishli airport, the runway a mere 3 kilometers from the Turkish border, then the scene is set for The Good, the Bad, the Ugly and the Undertaker.
Posted by: Juan Moment | Jan 25 2016 14:26 utc | 56
|
