North Korea's Test Of A "Hydrogen Bomb" Was Only Somewhat Successful
A few hours ago North Korea exploded another nuclear device. It was its fourth test of a nuclear bomb and the 2055th global nuclear detonation of such a device.
First size estimates from seismic data measured by China and others say that the bomb developed a force equivalent to about 10 kilotons TNT.
The very exited DPRK TV anchor announced that its scientist exploded a "miniaturized H bomb". The English announcement says it "scientifically verified the power of smaller H bomb." A hydrogen bomb consist of two stages. A primary nuclear fission device is exploded to trigger a secondary nuclear fusion device consisting of hydrogen isotopes. Such bombs are very powerful and the rather low yield of roughly 10kt make it quite doubtful that this was an actual working H bomb as these are usually several magnitudes stronger.
The earlier North Korean tests of fission bombs had yields of 1 kt, 4 kt and 9 kt. The first one is considered to have been a partial dud. This fourth test today may have been a partial dud of an H bomb or it may have been just a basic fission device with probably added tritium for a boosted reaction. Only a measurement of the radionuclides resulting from this test will make it possible to determine its real configuration.
There had been recent signs that another nuclear test in North Korea would soon happen. Satellite images showed that a new test tunnel was dug into a mountain. There were rumors since 2013 that North Korea is working on a hydrogen device. In early December the North Korean leader announced that his country was ready to test an H bomb but this was dismissed by the U.S. as bluster. North Korean announcements are usually over the top exaggerated but also basically true. I therefore consider this to have been a real test of an H bomb as announced but one which was only partially successful.
After the Korea war the north of the country was completely obliterated. Hardly any structure with more than one level was left standing. The factories, the electricity network and its dams were destroyed:
American planes dropped 635,000 tons of bombs on Korea -- that is, essentially on North Korea --including 32,557 tons of napalm, compared to 503,000 tons of bombs dropped in the entire Pacific theatre of World War II.
Since then a huge amount of the North Korean gross domestic product has been spent on its military. When it started to test nuclear devices North Korea announced that it would use the new capabilities to replace or shrink its conventional military. The savings would be used to increase the standard of living for its people. Strategic assessments say that its nuclear and missile development is not aimed at creating a first strike force but a deterrence capability.
North Korea considers the U.S. and the U.S. influenced South Korean government as its primary enemies and aggressors and Japan as a secondary threat. China and Russia are seen as somewhat friendly countries but kept at a distance.
As the U.S. develops its 'pivot to Asia' anti-China posture it is pushing for more hawkish policies in South Korea and Japan and presses for an alliance between these historic enemies. Despite hawkish, rightwing governments in both countries the success of that strategy is only slowly developing. The North Korean test will be probably allow for further steps towards a NATO-like anti-China and anti-North Korea structure.
Posted by b on January 6, 2016 at 7:52 UTC | Permalink
I don't know why China and Russia aren't pushing for a rapprochment between north and south Korea. That would be good for them - avoid the 'NATO-like anti-China and anti-North Korea structure', anti-Russia, too - and good for the region.
I read a very good book : The Korean War: A History (Modern Library Chronicles) and recommend it others as well.
Posted by: jfl | Jan 6 2016 9:31 utc | 2
My (non-expert) knowledge of this is that once you manage to set off lithium deuteride (becomes deuterium/tritium) fusion with a fission device you then have the option to build a device of any size. I don't believe, practically speaking, that it could fizzle once that step is reached. Assuming enough lithium deuteride is available.
Posted by: blues | Jan 6 2016 11:12 utc | 4
The amusing thing about Yankee whining about NK's "belligerence" is that NK is 101% Made In AmeriKKKa. What's Left has useful archives on most of AmeriKKKa's artificially-created enemies, including NK. The Yankees regularly use the "Israeli" tactic of (down-played) provocation by themselves or by their SK satraps to oblige NK to make loud noises about sovereignty.
In the Cheonan incident a few years ago, Shrillary made a complete idiot of herself by accusing NK of responsibility for sinking an SK Navy ship which was sunk by the incompetence of the SK captain and crew. She went all quiet when Spiegel published hi-res photos of the dry-docked stern of the Cheonan which proved, beyond a shadow of doubt, that Shrillary is nothing more than an hysterical liar and disinfo slut.
Even the US-imposed border between NK and SK is a crime against humanity. 90% of Korea's arable land is in SK and 10% in NK.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 6 2016 11:23 utc | 5
Re: South Korea and Japan are "historic enemies"?
You know that it's not officially called "South Korea", it's called the "Republic of Korea". It is definitely the case that Korea has been an historic enemy of Japan.
Posted by: Julian | Jan 6 2016 12:09 utc | 6
Posted by: blues | Jan 6, 2016 6:12:47 AM | 4
My own (non-expert) inquiries suggest that the slightest imperfection in both the trigger and the implosion-containment phase (which is all about preserving the geometry of the design during the initial detonation phase) has a dramatically negative effect on the yield.
You (anyone) can make AN atom bomb by merely splitting 1.5 critical mass of U 2?? into two pieces and bashing them together. The resulting 'blast' will be atomic, but will blow the bits apart before a chain reaction gets going. The complications start with devising a way to keep everything in the optimum configuration to produce a prolonged chain reaction (millionths of a second).
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 6 2016 12:21 utc | 7
Did b, just say it was a "dud"?? The effect of 10kt yield nuke on any city won't be a dud...
Posted by: Zico | Jan 6 2016 12:54 utc | 8
Posted by: Kyle Pearson | Jan 6, 2016 6:11:32 AM | 3
"South Korea and Japan are "historic enemies"?" no such thing although the US is enemy of both nations and people. Note this last ones, "nations and people".
Both countries are having regimes installed by the US, in both countries at the throne at those regimes are the most reactionary elements possible. Just as the US had used Nazi in newly installed regime in Germany the same pattern is implemented in Asia little later on.
Just consider this: the present president of South Korea is daughter of a Japanese colonial collaborator in the Japanese Imperial Kwangtung Army. Grandfather of present Japanese PM was the minister of industry in WWII and mentor of the SK president's father.
Revolving door of Nazi personalities is of course strictly controlled process by and in interest of empire and the ruling elite. If NK as a state wish to survive they have to have a weapon(s). Whether it is of deterrence or offensive character that's irrelevant.
Timing of the test is not accident who following the event there know what I mean. It is also difficult to believe that is done without knowledge of Beijing at least to say.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Jan 6 2016 13:20 utc | 9
@Julian | Jan 6, 2016 7:09:10 AM | 6
"It is definitely the case that Korea has been an historic enemy of Japan."
Typical the White Man narrative regardless s/he is "progressive" or reactionary. The Western colonialism is fascism have never abandoned official politics, schools, academia your churches and so on.
Latest one and nothing to do with Koreas and everything to do with the White Man fascism.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35231046
"The men were of Arab or North African appearance, he said."
Germany shocked by Cologne New Year gang assaults on women
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Jan 6 2016 13:34 utc | 10
Hordes of Arabs Untermensch attacking Übermensch womens.
Regardless where Untermensch are, in own country and the land, or as a refuge and immigrant, they will be threatened, culturally and physically, i.e. with lethal force.
What's next folks regrading Koreas? Something like this?
Douglas MacArthur statement regarding heroic N. Korea fight: “the Oriental dies stoically because he thinks of death as the beginning of life.”
It is rather admission of that his mercenaries were humiliated but the White Man media had "translated" it in a way that suit regime and national narrative.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Jan 6 2016 13:54 utc | 11
BTW
Should Kim Ki Jong be seen in the White Man narrative - Douglas MacArthur?
Before he slashed the face of the US ambassador he said: “North and South Korea must be united”
Who is the real enemy of whom?
Lenins dictum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who,_whom%3F
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Jan 6 2016 14:08 utc | 12
The White Man is silent, very silent, cannot hear nothing about Kim Ki Jong and the whole event. Nothing at all.
But under the US pressure S. Korea and Japan settled war crime affair of 200.000 "comfort women" for $8 million.
For 200.000 slaves 8 million?! Is this 40 bucks each???? One of four is not alive anyway?! I guess better than nothing, right? Nazi German's slaves got nothing!
North Korea, get few dozen of H-bombs. Hurry.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Jan 6 2016 14:21 utc | 13
"It is definitely the case that Korea has been an historic enemy of Japan."
The Imperial dynastic system of Japan was established by invaders from Korea around the 4th century AD. Like the British successors to the Norman's rule, the Japanese monarchs continued to assert their right to rule their former Korean holdings for a couple of centuries. A thousand years or so later, after very long and bitter civil wars in Japan, the new winners (later known as the Tokugawa shogunate) sent its dangerous samurai warriors away to Korea to keep the peace in Japan when demobilization was on the agenda. They wrecked havoc. Then in the latter half of the 19th century, the Tokugawa were replaced by the Meiji Restoration of the Emperor system which rapidly/radically modernized Japan and embarked on Imperialistic wars or invasions against, first Taiwan (by tradional samurai who withdrew shortly) followed by "modern" & victorious warfare against China (Japan acquired Taiwan), Korea & Russia. Japan's colonial rule of Korean was very brutal & included the murder of the Korean royal family. Despite close cultural, ethnic & geographic ties, Korean immigrants to Japan have complained till now of nasty discriminatory treatment. So this is a sad situation that was not caused by Western Imperialism, but is a symptom of the cruelty of Imperialism.
Posted by: Tenor | Jan 6 2016 14:23 utc | 14
Kodo News Agency reports that a US RC 135V reconaissance aircraft took off from Kadena shortly before the seismic event. Purely coincedental? I'm sure the US would want to take air samples to check for enhanced radioactivity. This would be defnitive proof of an nuclear explosion of some kind.
Posted by: Yonatan | Jan 6 2016 14:28 utc | 15
Neretva'43 @10
Russian media reports offer a somewhat different picture.
"In the German city of Cologne on new year's night workers made a mass attack on women - in total, police have recorded nearly 100 [do they mean 1000?] such incidents.
This information became known only five days later, on 5 January during a special press conference, announced the head of the city police Wolfgang Albers.
According to him, out of hundreds of cases of attacks about 15 constitute sexual harassment. In addition, migrants robbed women"
So out of the nearly 1000 incidents, 15 amounted to sexual harassment. Most of the other incidents where what? Some were robbery but the others/ Rowdy behaviour in a mass New Year Eve celebration? Unheard off [/sarc].
The Western MSM has gotta stoke the fear and hate.
Posted by: Yonatan | Jan 6 2016 14:35 utc | 16
Jeez, is this all it takes to stop the U.S. hegemon? A puny attempt at a hydrogen bomb? Atomic bombs of dubious effectiveness?
Wow! It makes one wonder, no?
Actually, it's not NK's nukes, but rather its massive conventional forces aimed squarely at the south which are the real deterrent.
Get real and get a life...
Posted by: V. Arnold | Jan 6 2016 14:39 utc | 17
After the huge 1923 earthquake that destroyed much of Tokyo, Japanese mobs killed thousands of Koreans who were brought into Japan to work under near slave conditions. In case anyone is wondering why Koreans still distrust Japan.
Posted by: Vollin | Jan 6 2016 14:42 utc | 18
Tenor | Jan 6, 2016 9:23:24 AM | 14 or WHATEVER your name and nick is.
Umm..." So this is a sad situation that was not caused by Western Imperialism, but is a symptom of the cruelty of Imperialism."
You obviously, out of ignorance and/or arrogance or by purpose, mixing up feudal period with capitalism i.e. imperialism and everything that goes with it. I must admit that I do not know but I'll say the scale of atrocities and destruction are not comparable.
A little history is informative: Korea was once one of the most isolationist countries in the world. Referred to as the “hermit Kingdom”, it refused to trade or interact with the US, European, or Japanese colonial powers, believing that they had nothing good to offer it, and that there was nothing to be gained by interacting with foreign barbarians, “wild animals that crave only material goods, totally ignorant of any human morality or decency.”So in 1866, when the heavily armed USS General Sherman nudged up the banks of the Taedong River to force open relations with Corea, the 500 year old Chosun Dynasty, held its knees together tightly and held steadfast in its isolationist virtue. The Sherman defied orders to leave, took hostages, opened fire, and was in turn attacked and burned to the ground; its crew massacred. The first round of US gunboat diplomacy ended in a charred fiasco.
Never one to take “No” as an answer, the US then returned in 1871 with a full scale marine invasion: a flotilla of 5 warships, and two dozen supporting vessels, 650 landing troops, a veritable “Little War with the Heathen”. This time the Koreans were outmatched: Korean defenders resisted with everything they had, but fighting hand-to-hand, tooth and nail, they were massacred to the last man. Eventually, a boilerplate US-Korea, “friendship” treaty, larded with the saccharine rhetoric of mutual amity, was concluded in 1882.
The jubilant Commodore Shufeldt, the US signatory wrote, in purple, orientalist prose, “The pacific is the ocean bride of America—China, Japan & Korea–…are the bridesmaids. ….on this ocean, the East and the West have thus come together, reaching the point where search for Empire ceases and human power attains its climax.”
On Shufeldt’s shuddering “nuptial couch,..where all the wealth of the orient will be brought to celebrate the wedding….as the “bridegroom cometh”, no one thought to ask the bride or the bridesmaids what the “nuptial couch” was like for them.
Still, the treaties were signed and ratified, at arm’s-length and holding noses, and after a short honeymoon period, realpolitik would trump mutual amity, and Korea would be pawned over to the Japanese for the full-scale ravaging of colonization.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/03/11/the-semiotics-of-face-slashing-in-south-korea/
Similar fate happened with Japan anyone who is interested in that history should goolge "Commodore Perry".
Posted by: Neretva'[email protected] | Jan 6 2016 14:58 utc | 19
the Heathen is for German Untermensch.
"Any similarities with reality is a mere coincidence!"
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Jan 6 2016 15:04 utc | 20
http://www.pablopicasso.org/massacre-in-korea.jsp
http://www.pablopicasso.org/massacre-in-korea.jsp#prettyPhoto[image1]/0/
Let's forget to Picasso little bit of plagiarism. He had in mind Goya's "The Third of May 1808".
In the picture I can not see the Japanese Samurai rather I see the Western phalanges spearheaded by the US Nazi.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Jan 6 2016 15:19 utc | 21
...
For 200.000 slaves 8 million?! Is this 40 bucks each???? One of four is not alive anyway?! I guess better than nothing, right? Nazi German's slaves got nothing!
North Korea, get few dozen of H-bombs. Hurry.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Jan 6, 2016 9:21:45 AM | 13
The important factors are admission of guilt and acceptance of liability.
$40 x 23% (credit card default penalty rate) compound interest x 70 years
= considerably more than $40 in 2016.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 6 2016 16:02 utc | 22
My comments regarding North Korea:
- The end of the Cold War in the early 1990s provided an excellent opportunity to remove sanction & a withdrawal of all US troops. Then the korean penisula could have returned to normalcy. But that would have meant a (significant) reduction of the US military budget. And that's what the US establishment, the Military Industrial Congressional Complex doesn't like.
But removal of sanctions also would have been a threat to the north korean establisment.
Read this:
http://fpif.org/parsing-east-asian-powder-keg/
Posted by: Willy2 | Jan 6 2016 17:37 utc | 23
Or this:
http://fpif.org/a-brewing-storm-in-the-western-pacific/
The folks at "Foreign Policy In Focus" do have a very clear view on what's going on in the Western Pacific.
But the US Empire is heading for (financial) trouble (again). The US financial foundations are deteriorating. For those who understand the financial intracacies of international money flows: Because the US budget deficit (after shrinking for a number of years) started to grow again and the Current Account Deficit starts to shrink (again) at the same time. I personally expect this dynamic to continue in the next months and this year.
And Japan is also "Not in the best of financial shapes". I simply can't imagine that Japan can become a important (military) player in the region in the near or distant future.
Posted by: Willy2 | Jan 6 2016 17:50 utc | 24
19;As an American with a little historical knowledge,I'd never heard that before,the American massacre and retribution in Korea.Wow,no wonder the people(vs SK stooges) hate US.
Posted by: dahoit | Jan 6 2016 17:57 utc | 25
NHK World News (US-Occupied Japan) shamelessly lied about NK's history of intransigence by offering a truncated version of NK history which omitted any mention of AmeriKKKa's many deadly acts of pitiless betrayal, fraud and trickery.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 6 2016 19:38 utc | 26
The 'official' story can be found here
http://www.globalresearch.ca/north-korea-implements-successful-h-bomb-test/5499628
Posted by: TrueNorth | Jan 6 2016 19:38 utc | 27
b
You and CNN are setting weak hearts a-twitter with absolutely zero evidence that Pyong Yang 'has the bmob'. Several nations dedicated to tracking these test events determined that in none of the first three tests was there any radioactivity released based on overflight air sampling. 1kt, 4kt and 9kt matches the latest test, estimated at 10k, and all of these detonations, and that's all they are, can be accomplished using ANFO, ammonium nitrate and fuel oil, based on Defense experiments in the 1950s which have been declassified, creating the largest non-nuclear explosion since Hiroshima in air-burst using ANFO, and therefore, all the more 'powerful', when detonated as a 'shaped charge' in a tunnel underground.
And what does Lil' Kim demand for his 'nuclear' (sic) tests, and his pathetic transistor radio 'orbit' of a 'satellite launch' that's now been enflamed into a 'we're all gonna die!' wholly fabricated map of the range of PRNK's 'nuclear missiles' that includes the US West Coast.
What a f'g crock. Three entire generations of Defense drones have made their livings off of Pyong Yang hysteria, three generations of pensions for life keep pumping up the false flag that Pyong Yang has the bmob.
What does Lil' Kim demand for his shaped-charge paltry 10kt ANFO bursts?
He demands FUEL OIL and FERTILIZER, by the tanker and freighter load!! It's getting cold in Pyong Yang, he OWNS the US Aid-funded FUEL OIL and AMMONIUM NITRATE, so let's put three railroad tanker cars, and that's all it would take to achieve 10kt, let's put three railroad tanker cars of ANFO in a tunnel, and see if we can get 100:1 ROI.
Now, dear reader, don't you have something more important to be hysterical about?
Posted by: Chipnik | Jan 6 2016 20:59 utc | 29
Hi!
If you wanna see real Hydrogen Bomb Test that was made in History...you could see it here: http://www.freeroyaltystockimages.com/hydrogen-bomb-test-freeroyaltystockimages/
Posted by: Hydrogen Bomb Photo | Jan 6 2016 21:59 utc | 30
THE NUKE THAT WAS NOT?
Western experts dismiss the North Korean claim of a successful hydrogen bomb test because of the low yield of the explosion, estimated as between 1 and 30 kilotons. There is another explanation to the low yield; North Korea is using a uranium-deuterium bomb as the primary in the H-bomb.
This would also explain the low yields in the three earlier A-bomb tests. These were claimed to be duds because of the ~ 5 kT yields, much less than the 20 kT of a Fat Man type device.
The aim of the North Korean nuclear weapons program is to weaponize the extremely small amount of plutonium or highly-enriched uranium North Korea has. It was estimated that North Korea might have plutonium or uranium for one bomb — that is if the bombs followed the traditional 1945 designs. It is however possible to reach prompt critical with a smaller amount of fissile material if the neurons are slowed down by a neutron moderator, preferably deuterium or hydrogen. The design was tested by the U.S. in 1953. The test were duds, producing only about 0.2 kT each, somewhat short of the 1 kT believed to be sufficient to ignite the secondary fusion explosion. There is nothing wrong in the science. The U.S. failed in the engineering work in 1953, but North Korea may well have succeeded in 2016.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Jan 7 2016 0:52 utc | 31
...so let's put three railroad tanker cars, and that's all it would take to achieve 10kt, let's put three railroad tanker cars of ANFO in a tunnel, and see if we can get 100:1 ROI.
Now, dear reader, don't you have something more important to be hysterical about?
Posted by: Chipnik | Jan 6, 2016 3:59:00 PM | 29
If you told me that ANFO is more powerful than TNT I'd probably believe it. But if you're telling me that 300 tons of ANFO = 10,000 tons of TNT I'd need to see some evidence before I'd even contemplate believing it.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 7 2016 3:54 utc | 32
wrt: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 6, 2016 7:21:44 AM | 7
\\My own (non-expert) inquiries suggest that the slightest imperfection in both the trigger and the implosion-containment phase (which is all about preserving the geometry of the design during the initial detonation phase) has a dramatically negative effect on the yield.// -- Hoarsewhisperer
That's not relevant. It's difficult to get a fission plutonium bomb to have efficient yield without ultra-high-precision shaped-charge high explosives surrounding a plutonium "pit". High-enriched uranium fission is far more forgiving.
The bottom line is that whenever you get a fission system hot enough to set off lithium deuteride becomes (deuterium/tritium) FUSION, you are playing a different game.
Get just a small deuterium/tritium fusion reaction going and with enough lithium deuteride -- Simply add more of the same, and you can have a (much) bigger blast. No limit to the size of it.
Posted by: blues | Jan 7 2016 4:38 utc | 33
NK is a China proxy. Which to me fully explains its brutal means of maintaining control over the State. If it weren't for China, Korea would be united today, as those are their aunts, uncles, and great grandchildren across the border. Remove China's need to keep a pitbull in the front yard, and you would see SK building even more of the factories it already runs in NK, and within 1-2 generations, NK would have the same standard of living and technological and educational excellence SK enjoys today.
Posted by: cahaba | Jan 7 2016 5:28 utc | 34
That's not relevant (what HW said). It's difficult to get a fission plutonium bomb to have efficient yield without ultra-high-precision shaped-charge high explosives surrounding a plutonium "pit". High-enriched uranium fission is far more forgiving.
The bottom line is that whenever you get a fission system hot enough to set off lithium deuteride becomes (deuterium/tritium) FUSION, you are playing a different game.
Get just a small deuterium/tritium fusion reaction going and with enough lithium deuteride -- Simply add more of the same, and you can have a (much) bigger blast. No limit to the size of it.
Posted by: blues | Jan 6, 2016 11:38:38 PM | 32
Are you trying to be funny? Your "ultra-high-precision shaped-charge high explosives surrounding a (whatever)" is precisely what my "implosion-containment phase" refers to as you would, and obviously do, know. It's not merely "difficult" to get ...sufficient yield from (ANY Nuke explosive device) without an efficient shaped charge/ implosion-containment mechanism - it's impossible.
Anyhow, my point was that there are many design variables, each of which needs to be correct, and to proceed flawlessly, to produce the desired result. But I lack the knowledge to adequately explain why that is and how those factors interact. And I lack the patience to pursue a discussion with someone who pretends not to notice that a factor has been mentioned purely in order to expand upon it, in irrelevant detail, himself. It doesn't compute. It's not a discussion.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 7 2016 8:55 utc | 35
Posted by: cahaba | Jan 7, 2016 12:28:29 AM | 33
If that's what you believe, how do you explain NK's declaration that it wants Nukes to deter aggression from AmeriKKKa, not China?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 7 2016 9:45 utc | 36
NK. What a sweet place. One of the only countries in the world to truly follow their own agenda, seven after 80 years of war with the yanks. Diamonds. Give them time. Its like Cuba. Most of the shit in the country comes from the fact that they are sanctioned. Trade, make friends, and NK would chill out big time...
Posted by: Dan | Jan 7 2016 11:22 utc | 37
31
The Occam's Razor Theory holds that the least unlikely least multivariant probability is the most probable outcome.
PRNK has no 90% U235, no deuterium, no ultra-precision 5-axis manufacturing base, no nuclear triggers, nor any way to get them from anyone who has them. In fact, you could send American and Russian top nuclear scientists to Pyong Yang to lecture for a year, and the only outcome would be a bunch of highly over-educated PRNK nuclear scientists with a lot of spare time on their hands.
Same with the 'we're all gonna die TaepoDong3 ICBM' hysteria, when all PRNK achieved was mid-launch BREAKUP of a cobbled together third-stage, and then somewhat later an 'orbital' transister radio sized transmitter weighing a few pounds, one that burned up on re-entry a short time later.
They got nothing. Radioactivity has never been detected after the tests.
So where does this global hysteria, MSM PSYOP and MoA respamming come from? If Grampa farts out loud in church, surely it's not the Second Coming! Can I get a halleluah?
Sunnafrank posits that all situational analysis is retrogressively modified by value decisions whether the predicted outcome seems 'desireable' or not. For the Global War Pron machine, every earthquake in Cuba, PRNK, Sudan or Bosnia is a cause celebre secret nuclear test by the Axis of Evil. It's just business, get over it. Chi-ching!
The most probable analysis based on known reality is that Pyong Yangs chief foreign aid imports are Ammonium Nitrate fertilizer and Fuel Oil by . the . tanker . load, and declassified 1950s Defense experiments with airburst ANFO being classed 'more powerful than any other conventional explosive', taken together with the low-tech conventional mixing, timing and ignition method from any fireworks or mining company to explode ANFO, and the ready willingness of NATO Defense dole war hawks to trade even more ANFO for every extortion detonation, leaves no other possible conclusion.
It was either another pathetic ANFO extortion attempt, or a natural earthquake.
Meanwhile, China just dropped -7% in the first 1/2-hour Day Two, and smart hot money is swirling into a global maelstrom that will leave no nation on earth unscathed.
Posted by: Chipnik | Jan 7 2016 11:38 utc | 38
31
Here's your numbers:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divine_Strake
Remember, 700t of ANFO may be 'less powerful' than 600t of TNT, but it's all in the cavity size, charge spacing and ignition timing what magnitude S-wave and P-waves are generated, and how that's interpreted by comparing to completely non-analogous mass-into-energy bursts, as compared to ANFOs mass-into-compressive gaseous shock waves.
Like divining with a barrel of rotten apples the harvest yield of Florida sunshine.
Posted by: Chipnik | Jan 7 2016 12:02 utc | 39
Chipnik A 37 & 38.
Thanks. I did ask for an answer and those are answers.
I wasn't aware that 700 (not 300) tons of ANFO could be used to produce the same seismic effect as a 10kt Nuke, or 10,000 tons of TNT. But this (non)event does beg the question "Why only 700 tons when shiploads are available, the multiplier-effect is well-known to the NK-ians(?), AND they knew they were going to shout H-Bomb before the detonation took place?"
But I take your point that there is an incentive for Western Observers (and NK's friends), to go along with the gag and ramp up the outrage and confusion, for equal but opposite reasons.
Btw there's no need to answer the questions above because, collectively, they tend to answer themselves - in an Occam-ish kind of way.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 7 2016 13:59 utc | 40
cahaba 33
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0P1di1Yiwiw/Uzy9JYNeJLI/AAAAAAAAEZ8/Um2XF3U_7M4/s1600/gigo2.png
Posted by: denk | Jan 7 2016 15:57 utc | 41
So the days before the bomb test, Kim Jong Un was slated to make his first trip to China.. I guess he wanted to frontrun negotiations? ?
Posted by: Refocus | Jan 7 2016 20:36 utc | 42
40
Let's touch this one last time to drive out the lying Great Shaytan. We'll science the shit out of it.
At the end of WW2, the world's militaries had a pretty darned good idea how much damage 1,000T of TNT would do to a city. Then along came two air-burst nuclear fission weapons in Japan, and by comparison, those weapons were assigned an EQUIVALENT damage impact of several thousand tons of TNT, and it stuck. Nuclear weapons 'strength' (as air burst) became measured in KT of TNT equivalent damage, not force.
From that point on, it got 'rocket scienced'. Nobody ever blew up 10MTs of TNT to determine the equivalent force impact of a hydrogen bomb. It was all THEORETICAL TNT-equivalent. (But they did blow up equivalent tonnage of ANFO and TNT to establish they're about the same magnitude, so we have that equivalence to work with.)
Then came nuclear proliferation, first atmospheric, then underground, and a system of test and verification arose, based on the seismic S- and P-waves generated and reflecting around the globe, measured by geophysicists. So now you've got geophysicists interpreting S- and P-waves talking with nuclear scientists interpreting 'yield' in an archaic KT of TNT kind of equivalence.
"Hey, Hanre', how strong was that last 6.8 bump on the Richter scale?"
"Oh, Marcelle, it was only 140KT by my theoretical yield calculations."
Over time, after 100s of underground tests, a measure of reliability was developed between measuring seismic waves and CALCULATED KT or MT yield of TNT-equivalent (but not TNT force, and especially not TNT underground), so again, it stuck.
So was Lil' Kim's 10KT explosion really the equivalent of 10KT of TNT? Hell no, you'd blow a crater the size of Mount Penatubo with that much TNT. TNT is a chemical mass-to-mass conversion, solid to extremely highly-compressed gas, and by, what is it, Maxwell's Law, it becomes super-heated nearly to plasma underground and generates tremendous outward explosive forces.
Nuclear is a mass-to-energy conversion, not the same thing at all. TNT generates 2000 feet per second shockwaves and massively powerful expansion force that largely blows upward, while the nuclear blast smokes the paint off battleships and generates a slow but powerful 500 feet per second shockwave, powerful enough to knock down buildings and turn over vehicles over a large area blowing slowly outward.
Blast Effect Calculation.rtf - Metabunk
https://www.metabunk.org › attachments
Again, an air burst nuclear explosion has an equivalent damage to an air burst TNT explosion, but there is no such comparison, nor will there ever be one, for underground testing. I'm sure 1KT of TNT, or ANFO, would create as powerful as seismic wave as a 10KT underground nuclear weapon, it's a totally different 1000x more expansive gas reaction and 10x higher velocity shock wave with TNT.
Wait, you just lost your argument! Where is Lil' Kim going to get 1000T of ANFO way up there in North Korea!? Well, a small coastal freighter can carry 15,000 DWT of ammonium nitrate and a small coastal oil tanker is 10,000 DWT of fuel oil, so there you go. The US and its allies have been sending Lil' Kim ANFO by the 100,000s of DWTs! To set off 1000T of ANFO in an underground cavern, carefully staged, and sequenced to have the maximum seismic shock wave, (and there's 1,000s of miners and blasting software that shows you how to do that), would be no big thing.
Shorter Version?
We proved that based on all available knowledge, the most likely scenario was an ANFO explosion. We proved that Defense has conducted plenty of these massive ANFO bmob experiments as recently as ten years ago, it's all low technology and it's all freely available. We proved Lil' Kim doesn't have the 90% U235, doesn't' have the deuterium, doesn't have 5-axis precision milling equipment and doesn't have the nuclear triggers, nor any way to get them. He has nothing of value to trade.
But there's one more thing. Lil' Kim is a narcissist. If he really had The Bmob, and since their test site is in NE Korea, and winter prevailing winds are from SW, blowing offshore directly towards the United States, WHY WOULDN'T HE USE AN AIR BURST????! Maximum effect, absolute proof that he has it, in front of all the world, then NATO and US rain $10Bs in direct aid down on him not to do that again.
Occam's Machete proves it was ANFO, and let's never let Great Shaytan and the compliant media run this 'PRNK Has The Bmob' PSYOP stink again. There are some 25 million North Koreans in the largest open air concentration camp on earth, more than 50x larger than the largest Somalia internment camp, and almost three times the Holocaust, being allowed by the Western World to work as slaves, then starve and die.
Next time the Pentagon tries to flog 'The Bmob' at their annual $T re-budget time, write to your Congress person, the Western World has a moral obligation to make sure we're not all knowingly and willfully responsible for what is the largest genocide in human history, up there in North Korea.
Oh, look, some war pron! GTG!
Posted by: Chipnik | Jan 8 2016 10:43 utc | 43
Chipnik @ 43.
One more clarification would be helpful. In the following extract you say...
TNT is a chemical mass-to-mass conversion, solid to extremely highly-compressed gas, and by, what is it, Maxwell's Law, it becomes super-heated nearly to plasma underground and generates tremendous outward explosive forces.
Nuclear is a mass-to-energy conversion, not the same thing at all. TNT generates 2000 feet per second shockwaves and massively powerful expansion force that largely blows upward, while the nuclear blast smokes the paint off battleships..
Hidden within that comparison is an insinuation that the difference between a chemical explosion and a Nuke 'explosion' is that a chemical explosion releases a huge quantity of gas and heat, whereas a Nuke releases a huge quantity of heat and not much else. If that's true it would tend to explain why u/gd Nuke test film shows a bit of dust rising from the ground above the test site, as it collapses to form a crater - suggesting that a large empty space has been created (by the heat) where the bomb used to be.
Nuclear above-ground tests show what looks like a conventional explosion but (if a Nuke only produces heat) it's air which has expanded as a result of being super-heated. Until today I was never able to figure out why Hiroshima looked so different (so much fairly fragile stuff still standing) from what one might expect to see if Hiroshima had been destroyed by TNT rather than an (Atomic) TNT equivalent.
Is there any reality in those suppositions?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 10 2016 4:32 utc | 45
Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 9, 2016 11:32:45 PM | 45
Unfortunately, Chipnik got it fundamentally wrong. The blast or shockwave alone from a nuke is immense; and combined with a massive heat wave is what makes it so destructive. The link below gives a pretty good explanation of the differences between nuke and conventional..
Posted by: V. Arnold | Jan 10 2016 8:27 utc | 46
TNT (tri nitro toluene(sp)) can be directed; which means the blast isn't upwards unless that is the intent. Explosives and their use is a very complex science; some might even call it an art if fireworks displays are considered...
I'll leave it there for now.
Posted by: V. Arnold | Jan 10 2016 8:40 utc | 47
Not to be pedantic, but;
However, explosives like TNT, actually have less potential energy than gasoline, but it is the high velocity at which this energy is released that produces the blast pressure. This very high speed reaction is called a detonation. TNT has a detonation velocity of 6,940 m/s compared to 1,680 m/s for the detonation of pentane in air, and the 0.34 m/s stoichiometric flame speed of gasoline combustion in air.
http://www.ch.ic.ac.uk/vchemlib/mim/bristol/tnt/tnt.htm
Posted by: V. Arnold | Jan 10 2016 8:53 utc | 48
Posted by: V. Arnold | Jan 10, 2016 3:27:59 AM | 46, 47 & 48
Thanks for the Science For Kids link (which didn't go over my head).
However, assuming the info is correct, it doesn't explain the phenomenon of u/ground tests which cause a collapse of the land surface above. Whilst the most obvious answer as to why such tests produce an (apparent) IMplosion instead of an EXplosion, is that it wouldn't BE an u/ground test if fission products were ejected into the atmosphere. So one must assume that the people designing the test ensure that it's far enough below the surface to ensure that "break-out" can't occur. But that only deepens the 'mystery' surrounding the collapse-crater because if the atomic blast produced high-pressure gas AND shatteres enough of the strata above to allow it to crumble into a void, then one might expect some of that rubble to be ejected, or at the very least, for some of the high pressure to escape to the surface.
So, at present, the air-blast scenario doesn't seem to fit the u/ground blast scenario as neatly as it ought. i.e. something seems to be missing from the u/ground case - a large volume of high-pressure gas(?).
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 10 2016 13:44 utc | 49
@ Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 10, 2016 8:44:22 AM | 49
Just because it's an underground "test" has nothing to do with implosion; that's another dynamic altogether. It is in fact an explosion conducted underground to avoid atmospheric contamination. If the N-explosion is deep enough then there will likely be no crater. It also depends on the power of the explosion, the substrate of the area; is it bed rock; soil and aggregate; sedimentary, etc., etc., etc.
The point is, for my intervention; the information conveyed by Chipnik was woefully inaccurate and misleading.
There are many things missing from the UG blast; atmospheric gas samples being of paramount importance...
Posted by: V. Arnold | Jan 10 2016 14:31 utc | 50
Thanks for your patience & guidance. I realised, after posting my query to you, that you'd provided enough info for me find answers for myself. Googling U/ground Nuke Test Results turned up this wiki entry which answers all of my queries to you, and other interesting stuff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_nuclear_weapons_testing
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 10 2016 14:54 utc | 51
Hoarsewhisperer | Jan 10, 2016 9:54:31 AM | 51
It is good you took the initiative for self education/understanding.
I'm an old guy, who spent many units of time debunking the bullshit propagated by the media.
Thank you for your attention to details. A most rewarding exchange...
Posted by: V. Arnold | Jan 10 2016 15:40 utc | 52
The comments to this entry are closed.
Woke up to hear this news!
Your analysis ends with the following
"The North Korean test will be probably allow for further steps towards a NATO-like anti-China and anti-North Korea structure"
This may be the correct assessment, of the response of Japan and South korea, which sadly won't solve the problem and will make it worse.
North Korea need to be brought out of isolation politically and economically
Posted by: James lake | Jan 6 2016 8:09 utc | 1