We may never know why Syed Rizwan Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik went on a rampage and killed 14 people in San Bernadino. The pair may have left no note or electronic trace about their motives. But it makes perfect sense for the Islamic State to claim that the two acted in its name.
The details of their life make it somewhat plausible that the two were religiously influenced:
Syed Rizwan Farook was looking for a wife. On at least two online sites, he posted details for prospective brides. “Religious but modern” he apparently wrote on one. He made a point of noting his American citizenship in another.
How he ultimately made contact with Pakistan-born Tashfeen Malik remains unclear. But family members said Farook traveled to Saudi Arabia, where Malik was living, and returned to Southern California as a couple and began a life in quiet Redlands,
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Wednesday morning, they dropped off their 6-month-old daughter with Farook’s mother, according to family members. Sometime around midday, police say they donned masks and armed themselves with assault rifles and handguns before storming a holiday party hosted by the county health agency where Farook worked. At least 14 people died. Hours later, 28-year-old Farook and 27-year-old Malik were dead by police gunfire just two miles from the massacre site.
The attackers imitated a military style attack with assault rifles, lots of ammunition and pipe bombs. The killers in Paris also preferred this style.
The bios of the shooters has the smell of sleeper agents. Recruited to live a normal life but to act later when the time is right and a ruthless attack within the U.S. is needed. Many original members of the Islamic State were trained intelligence people from Saddam Hussein's era. They know how to handle such an effort.
Even if the police finds that the reason for the San Bernadino attack was a personal issue the Islamic State could still claim that the attack was its act. Most people in the U.S. would rather believe IS than anything their government claims.
IS waited quite some time to announce its responsibility for bringing down the Russia airliner over Sinai. So we may get an announcement only in a week or two.
The IS folks believe that the end-times are near and they wants the big battle in Daqib, a town held by IS in Syria. As a Hadith says:
The Last Hour would not come until the Romans land at al-A’maq or in Dabiq. An army consisting of the best (soldiers) of the people of the earth at that time will come from Medina (to counteract them).
The Islamic State is waiting for the Romans of our days, the U.S. and its NATO, to come to Daqib. It wants to suck the "west" in. It is sure that it can and will defeat it. What better to achieve this than to attack the U.S. at home?
But the game has two sides. If IS claims responsibility Obama may decide, just like GW Bush did, to use the attack for his own purpose. He would claim that Assad must go to defeat the Islamic State and start to openly attack the Syrian people and their government.
There is only the small problem that Syria is now too well defended to be simply overrun:
A high-ranking officer within the joint operation room in Damascus (consisting of Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah) said “Damascus received sets of S -300 advanced Russian missiles, ready to enter active service. Soon, Syria will announce that any country using the airspace without coordinating with Damascus will be viewed as hostile and will shoot the jet (s) without warning. Those willing to fight terrorism and coordinate with the military leadership will be granted safe corridors”.
In another development, according to the same source, “Iran is preparing two squadrons of Sukhoi to engage the war in Syria. These will be stationed at the T4 Syrian military airport in Homs, very close to Palmyra (Tadmur), previously known as Tiyas. The Iranian Air Force will join the Russian Air Force in their war against extremist terrorist Kafeeree in Syria”.
The Russian are said to increase the numbers of their jets in Syria to 96. Together with Iran's then 24 jets of the Su-24 type in Tiyas and the Syrian air force the fighter capability of that force is quite noteable. There are of course also the anti-air missiles on the ground. They airports are protected by Pantsyr S1 short range systems. There are TOR M1/M2 medium range anti-air missile systems. The Syrian S-300, the Russian S-400 in Latakia and the additional S-300s on board of the Moskva near the Syrian coast are long range systems and would an attack very costly. The U.S. tends to avoids attacking countries with competent air defense and Syria has by now an excellent one.
But what else could Obama do when IS claims the attack in San Bernadino? The pressure to "do something" and to escalate and escalate again will be immense. Every presidential candidate will demand that Obama sends an army division or two to destroy IS.
The way through Syria is closed. The Iraqis will not allow more U.S. troops on their ground. They reasonably believe that the U.S. is on the side of IS. Several Shia militia in Iraq have announced that they will attack any additional U.S. forces. Using the Kurdish areas in Iraq to attack IS would be very difficult as supplies would have to go through treacherous, blackmailing Turkey, which is secretly allied with IS, and pass through areas where the Turks and the Kurdish PKK are fighting each other. Going through Jordan and from there to Anbar province in Iraq would enrage the many IS followers in Jordan and destroy that state too.
Making peace with Assad, as even tea party candidate Ted Cruz now recommends, to then attack IS would be the logical way to go. But Obama and the people around him are too presumptuous to take such a step. They can not admit that they were wrong all along and that Assad and Putin were and are right.
So what will Obama do?