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Turkey’s Imperial Motive In Attacking Syria And Iraq
Turkey's attack on Syria and Iraq and its support for Islamists in those countries and elsewhere is often described as religiously motivated. But that is only a part of the story. The real-political side is an imperialist effort to expand Turkey into the space of the former Ottoman empire.
A former head of Israel’s National Security Council Giora Eiland writes in The Guardian:
About a year before that meeting with the Russian, I met a senior Turkish official. That was at a time when relations between Jerusalem and Ankara were excellent. At that meeting, the Turkish official spoke openly about his country’s world view. “We know that we cannot get back the lands that were under the control of the Ottoman empire before 1917,” he said, “but do not make the mistake of thinking that the borders that were dictated to us at the end of the first world war by the victorious countries – mainly the UK and France – are acceptable to us. Turkey will find a way to return to its natural borders in the south – the line between Mosul in Iraq and Homs in Syria. That is our natural aspiration and it is justified because of the large Turkmen presence in that region.”
A U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment in 2012 provided:
OPPOSITION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES (MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF STATES AND TURKEY ARE SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS.
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THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION WANT
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ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS UNION WITH OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY.
The former Turkish military adviser Metin Gurcan in AL-Monitor analyzes the aims of the Turkish invasion of Iraq:
Ankara — which realizes each player in Syria and Iraq is setting up its own “boutique power base” — feels a best-case scenario for Turkey will be:
- To allow emergence of the Mosul-based "Sunnistan Autonomous Administration," which is loosely linked to Baghdad, as Baghdad's central authority is waning by the day.
- To enable cooperation between the KRG and the Sunni bodies in Syria, and the "Iraqi Sunnistan" under the security umbrella of the Turkish military.
- For Turkey to become the regional sponsor of this new three-entity structure.
Some U.S. circles like the plan. John Bolton recently wrote an NYT op-ed To Defeat ISIS, Create a Sunni State which endorses the deconstruction of Iraq.
I posted a link to the above piece with the "Sunnistan Autonomous Administration" line on Twitter and added:
Moon of Alabama @MoonofA
@MoonofA #pt Turkey IMHO wants even more: "Annex Mosul and seize the northern Iraqi oil fields".
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/12/erdogan-moves-to-annexes-mosul.html
There followed this little exchange:
Erdal Ϝ ϓ ſ Ϟ – F16 @CccErdal
@MoonofA Mosul has always been Turkish land until the beginning of the 20th century. They are just taking what is theirs.
Moon of Alabama @MoonofA
@CccErdal Mosul is as much "Turkish land" as India is "British land".
Erdal Ϝ ϓ ſ Ϟ – F16 @CccErdal
@MoonofA Turks will bring peace and prosperity to the Middle East after British/French destroyed/colonized it in ww1.
I have no idea who CccErdal is but his profile picture is full of "Türk" whatever flags.
All the above is just to show that Turkey under Erdogan has a neo-Ottoman expansionist view. It wants parts of Iraq and Syria incorporated into Turkey. This view is popular in the ethnic Turk parts of Turkey. Erdogan is getting some support – or at least little resistance – from his NATO allies in pursuing this aim.
The overall Turkish plan is to re-establish the Ottoman administrative units or vilayets of Aleppo, Diyarbekir in its southern extend to the Euphrates and Mosul. These areas include large oil and gas fields in Syria and north Iraq. The Russian intervention in Syria frustrates the Aleppo plan. The temporary U.S. alliance with the YPK Kurds in Syria hinders the southern extension of Diyarbekir to the Euphrates. A serious move on Mosul started last weekend and has not yet been challenged by force. If diplomatic pressure fails to dislodge the Turks from the area Iraqi militia will attack the new Turkish positions near Mosul.
Turkey's plans are illegal under international law and under the charter of the United Nations. Moreover they do not respect the will of the people living in those areas. Are we to believe that Christians, Alawites and Yezidis, Kurds and Arabs in Syria and Iraq crave for being again ruled by ethnocentric Turks? The "Turkmen brethren" in Iraq and Syria which Ankara provides as justification for its moves are after all just a tiny minority.
But the Turkish expansion plans are serious and have wide support in Turkey's nationalist and Islamist circles. Turks, like other people, can be ruthless and brutal in such endeavors:
One of the two [Russian] pilots was captured by the pro-Turkish forces, killed and mutilated by the rebels. Pieces of the body, extremities and face, were taken away.
Erdogan is willing to risk a lot, including a wider war, to pursue his neo-Ottoman dreams. Blackmailing Europe and Iraq and challenging Russia in Crimea and Chechnya through insertion of Turkish "Grey Wolf" fascist and "Tatar" are only minor measures. We can expect a lot more fool play and carnage before the Turks finally have to acknowledge that their expansionist plans will fail.
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Let me disabuse you of yet another ‘End Times’ fantasy, like ‘water-powered’ cars or ‘renewable’ Teslas, ‘Mining Asteroids’, ‘Nano-Robots’, ‘Space Elevators’, ‘Thorium Reactors’, ‘bitcoins’ or the Really Big Herk, ‘Water on Mars’. Or, hey, maybe NASA’s pensions-for-life Astro-Biologists! Life in outer space? Que?
The deserts are full of water, millions of years of water, just under the surface. I used to hike a trail in the California desert wilderness at night to avoid the baking sun, because 4 hours hike away, there was a freshwater spring bubbling up, they say, from mountains 100s of miles to the east. We used to hike in the baking white sand desert west of Tucson, and by using your eyes and nose, we could always find water. Ask the Abos.
This goofy goofy Deep Water swill, like so, so many sci-fi cons engendered by Reagan’s fallacious Star Wars, (not one of which ever deployed, ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL PAYING FOR THE PROGRAMS), are just hare-brain Mil.Gov tax revenue scams looking for a main vein, like a legion of ricebowl pensioner Pewdiepie’s.
Oil comes up by huge pressure. Where there is low pressure, they inject pressure. That’s why oil costs $10 a barrel. Deep Water, if it exists in magically porous rock, would cost $20, $40, $80 a barrel, at the well, to pressurize, otherwise need massive bores and even more massive submersible pumps the size of VWs. That’s $10,000s per 1000 gallons at the delivery end. Right now I pay about $8 a 1000 gallons at the spigot. Farmer’s pay far, far less. Industry, a little more.
And don’t forget, Deep Water, if it exists in quantity, contains high minerals, sulfur, uranium, radium, high alkalinity or high acidity. It would not be potable and would have to be RO-treated after oxidizing or sulphating out the minerals, creating giant mountains of toxic sludge tailing ponds the size of Delaware.
So next time some dink tries to sell you Deep Water Development Bonds, tell them it’s cheaper to drink your own piss and recycle municipal sewage, about 1000x cheaper.
Remember what Jesus said, “The Mil.Gov hucksters will always be with you, but I will never have enough facetime before my dirt nap to disabuse you of all their nonsense.” Then look what those Mil.Gov hucksters did to Him with their ‘Miracle of the Rolling Rock’ schtick, a White-and-Gold Inverted Cross Xtian Caliphate, and the Aboriginal Ghost-Dancing Trail of Tears!
Taxpayers are the Abos now, and the Rez is a Mil.Gov work camp.
Posted by: Chipnik | Dec 10 2015 10:23 utc | 112
An old topic, so maybe nobody cares anymore, but the notion these militia in Latakia Governorate, specifically the Bayirbucak area, are all secular/Pan-Turkish Turkmen who essentially formed self-defense militias to protect themselves from ISIS, the Syrian Arab Army, Suqur al-Sahara, the Syrian Resistance, Hezbollah, Alawite militias, the Ba’ath Brigades, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Zulfiqar Brigade is false. They are only some of the militias fighting the pro-Syrian government forces. The militias in the Syrian Turkmen Brigades are directly supported by Turkey (some of the Turkmen militias recieve US-made TOWs, which have been fast-tracked through Turkey [including a supply line that runs into the Latakia Governorate] to Syrian militias in response to the overt Russian military intervention and subsequent pro-government forces’ ground offensives according to Reuters and the Military Times) and fight as part of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Latakia Governorate. The brigades include Nurettin Zengi, Zahir Baybars, al-Huva Billa, Yavuz Sultan Selim, Sultan Mehmet the Conqurer, Memduh Colha, Bin Tamime, Sultan Abdulhamid Han, Katip al-Mustafa, Firsan Tevhid, and Sukur ul-Turkmen brigades. Metin Gurcan reported in Al-Monitor that the Sultan Abdulhamid Han and Sultan Murhad Turkmen brigades are fighting alongside the Jaysh al-Fatah coalition (primarily Jahbat al-Nusrah) and Ansaruddin Front in Bayirbucak. During the 2014 Latakia Governorate offensive that initially took Kasab, some of the Turkmen brigades faught alongside Jahbat al-Nusrah (said to originally be a cell of Islamic State in Iraq that allied with Syrian “Islamist” groups and became “Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria” after a split with ISIS) and some FSA factions according to Gareth Jenkins. According to journalist Umar Farooq, the Turkmen have acted as a mediator between Turkey some of the “Islamist” militias in Syria, including Jahbat al-Nusrah.
The Turkmen militias in Latakia Governorate (the “Brigades of Turkmen Mountain” who were once part of the FSA) are collectively the armed wing of the Syrian Turkmen National Bloc (STNB), founded in Istanbul, Turkey in February 2012, not too long after the Syria war began. The conference was openly supported by Mazium-Der, a Turkish foundation Al-Akhbar reported is linked to Turkey’s current ruling party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The STNB is part of the National Change Current and has sent representatives to Syrian Turkmen Assembly meetings, which were supported by Turkey’s Foreign Ministry. The Syrian Turkmen Assembly was officially established in March 2013 during a meeting attended by (then) Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and (then) Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu. In a second meeting in Ankara on May 9-10, 2014, the Turkmen Assembly elected officials to act as the assembly’s governing officials. Turkey’s parliament recognized the Syrian Turkmen Assembly as the legitimate representative of the Syrian Turkmen. With Turkey’s urging, the Syrian National Council set aside 16 seats for the Turkmen and the Syrian National Committee offered the Turkmen 3 seats.
Latakia Governorate, where the Russian Su-24 was carrying out airstrikes when it was shot down, has a number of other militias that operate or have operated there comprised of members who, should they return to their homeland, could be or become a direct threat to Russia’s (and China’s) national security interests. Northeast Latakia Governorate was an area a number of salafi-jihadist militias came to consolidate after the 2014 offensive. Ansar al-Sharia Jamaat, led by a Kist from Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge and containing at least one Turkish militia member, is based in Latakia Governorate. Ansar al-Sham, headquartered in the Jabal al-Akrad area, was founded by a Latakian who fought in Afghanistan and is led by a Chechen. Ansar al-Sham is allied with Jahbat al-Nusrah, Ajnad al-Sham Islamic Faction, Liwa al-Haqq, Alweiat al-Furqan, the Sham Legion, and some factions of the FSA. It is also a member of the Islamic Front coalition (supported by Saudi Arabia and Turkey) with al-Fawj al-Awal (formed out of the defunct al-Tawhid Brigade, the FSA’s Northern Storm Brigade
(Formed in Azaz [just south of its headquarters] by smugglers), Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (a large salafi-jihadist militia supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar), and Jaysh al-Islam (According to The Guardian, a coalition of militias in the Damascus area that the Saudis helped found, arm, train, and procure funding for).
The FSA’s Maher Hijazi Battalion is also fighting in Latakia Governorate as has the FSA’s 1st Coastal Division, which recieved US-made TOWs through Turkey, had members trained by and recieved funding from Qatar, and was a member of the Jahbat Ansar al-Din coalition with several salafi-jihadist/takfiri militias. The 1st Coastal Division has Turkmen in its ranks. Junud al-Sham, a salafi-jihadist group of Chechen and Lebanese Sunni, also have a presence in Latakia Governorate. The militia has allied with Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya, Jahbat al-Nusrah, Katibat al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad (a former jamaat in Jahbat al-Nusrah) and the Ahadun Ahad Battalion, a salafi-jihadist militia that includes Chechens, Europeans, Turks (from Turkey), Afghans, Pakistanis, and Syrians among its ranks. This militia claims it does not side specifically with either Jahbat al-Nusrah or ISIS.
Another milita that is based in Latakia Governorate is Harakat Sham al-Islam, a salafi-jihadist militia mainly composed of Moroccans. It is designated a terrorist organization by the US. It is allied with Jahbat al-Nusrah, Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya, Jaish al-Muhajireen wa al-Ansar (JMA), and even ISIS. A member of the Jahbat Ansar al-Din alliance with Harakat Fajr al-Sham al-Islamiyya (mostly Syrian Sunnis from Aleppo Governorate), Harakat Sham al-Islam claims it is not affiliated with any other “parties” according to the neo-con think tank Institute for the Study of War. Ajnad al-Kavkaz (previously the Khalifat Battalion), a Chechen militias loyal to the Caucasus Emirate, is also based in Latakia Governorate. It is closely allied with Jahbat al-Nusrah, who itself has elements that fight in Latakia Governorate.
Jamaat Jund al-Qawqaz formed in the Latika Governorate in late 2014. It is affiliated with the Caucasus Emirate but, according to Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, pleged allegiance to Abd al-Hakim ash-Shishani, a Caucasus Emirate member who leads his own militia, the Jamaat al-Khilafa al-Qawqazia. The Jamaat Jund al-Qawqaz is very small, and largely comprised of ethnic Circassians born in Syria by the Golan Heights and Jordan
The JMA, a militia designated a terrorist organization by Canada and the US, also operates in Latakia Governorate. The Jamestown Foundation reported the JMA created a faction in Latakia Governorate that was based in the Jabal Turkman area and opened an “operations room” in Kurd Dagh. The militia primarily incorporates foreign fighters from all over the world organized into different battalions, but there are also Syrian brigades that joined the militia when it was created. It includes (or at one time included) ethnic Azeris, Chechens, Tajiks, Kazakhs, Dagistanis, and even, according to the Jamestown Foundation,
at least one Han Chinese. There are (or at least were at one time) also nationals from Russia (Tatarstan, Bashkiria), Ukraine, Crimea, Pakistan, Egypt, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhistan, Saudi Arabia, some Moroccans, Libya; and fighters from the Caucasus Emirate. The Guardian’s Constanze Letsch reported that one JMA battalion was specifically for westerners (including people from the US, France UK, Germany, and Sweeden). In late 2014, the Saudi-dominated Green Battalion militia joined the JMA. In late September 2015, Reuters reported the JMA joined Jahbat al-Nusrah. JMA has allied with a number of other militias, including salafi-Jihadist/takfiris, in part because the militia is relatively small. They have allied with Suqour al-Ezz, the Islamic Front coalition, Harakat Sham al-Islam, the FSA’s 13th Division (a member of Fatah Halab and the Syrian Revolutionary Command Council that has allied at times with the Islamic Front and Jahbat al-Nusra. It is supported by the Syrian National Council, funded by people in Saudi Arabia according to Al-Jazeera, and by the US. It is “vetted” to recieve US-made TOWs), Jahbat al-Nusra, Army of Mujahedeen (an “Islamic” militia now basically comprised of a few brigades from the FSA’s 19th Division. It was slated to get US arms supples according to NPR and 50 members were trained in Qatar, possibly by the US, and recieved US-made
TOWs)
There is an interesting series of claims regarding the militia that killed 1 Russian pilot who paracuted out after the jet was shot down near Jabal al-Turkoman in Latakia Governorate. Initially, a video came out appearing to show a body of a Russian pilot. The ‘turkmen’ militia who is said to have released it was the FSA-affiliated Alwiya al-Ashar. However, in the video, a voice said the “10th Division” had captured a Russian pilot. The group’s “media officer” told the Daily Telegraph both Russian pilots “arrived dead” (which was not true). The Guardian said an individual with the 10th Coastal Brigade, called Jahed Ahmad, said the group would consider exchanging the body for prisoners held by the Syrian government. This individual told the AP that the 10th Coastal Brigade opened fire on the pilots as they ejected and shot one of them, whose body they had recovered.
Russia Today-a pro-Russian Government news outlet-cited a Reuters report that a Deputy Commander, Alparslan Celik, speaking near Yamadi, held some sort of press conference claiming the Turkmen militia he is a commander of, Alwiya al-Ashar (whom the Daily Telegraph says recieves arms, ammunition, and funding from Turkey and a “CIA-backed” program and has allied with Jahbat al-Nusrah, a salafi jihadist militia designated a terrorist organization by the US) killed and recovered the pilot’s body. He also made the false claim that they had killed the plane’s navigator. A Hurriyet Daily News article said Celik was a Turkman Deputy Commander for the 2nd Coastal Division. An article at LiveLeak, some Tweets, and an article by DHA claimed Alpaslan Celik is a citizen of Turkey and a member of the Grey Wolves, who allegedly have some fighters on the ground with some of the Turkmen militias and are facilitating the movement of supplies, etc. across the Turkish border into Syria. Interestingly, a separate Hurriyet Daily News article named Emrah Celik, a Turkish citizen and district organization member for the AKP in Turkey’s Tekirag Province, as a volunteer fighter for the 2nd Coastal Brigade.
The Grey Wolves, an organization born out of Operation Gladio (officially to prevent a “Soviet invasion,” but instead were unleashed by Turkey’s army on Turkish Communists and other domestic political opponents), has been described as the paramilitary wing of the ultranationalist (some say fascist) Nationalist Movement Party (MHP, currently the 3rd largest political party in Turkey, with 12% of the vote in the last parliamentary elections). It is officially presented as a Pan-Turkish youth organization in the party. As Pan-Turks, they support the Syrian Turkmen and the creation of “East Turkistan.” Post-Cold War, the Wolves established training camps abroad based on Pan-Turkish ideology. They faught against Russia in both of the wars in Chechnya. They strongly support the Turkish-speaking Uyghur minority from China’s Xinjiang Province (and the Uyghur refugees in other countries), some of whom have gone to Syria to fight in the Turkistan Islamic Party for the Support of the People of al-Sham (TIPSPS), the branch of the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) in Syria, or with Jahbat al-Nusrah. The TIPSPS is allied with a number of salafi-jihadist militias in Syria, including Jahbat al-Nusrah, Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya, Jund al-Aqsa, Katibat Turkistani(sent by TIP leaders to fight in Syria), Katibat al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad and Imam Bukhari Jamaat. The latter 2 are primarily comprised of Uzbeks. The Imam Bukhari Jamaat is a member of the Jaysh al-Fatah coalition (who coordinates with Turkish intelligence [MIT]) that includes several other salafi-jihadist/takfiri militias, including Jahbat al-Nusrah (as mentioned earlier).
After the Russian jet was shot down and the pilot was killed, the FSA’s Furquat al-Awwal al-Sahli faction downed a Russian helicopter on a mission to rescue the surviving Russian navigator with small arms fire, which killed a Russian Marine. The surviving members of the rescue team were evacuated. The malfunctioned helicopter was abandoned and the FSA’s 1st Coastal Brigade used a US-made TOW to destroy it.
Endnotes
-This post does not cover the Turkmen “situation” in other Syrian governorates such as Aleppo and Idlib, which are at least as complicated as the Turkmen’s role in Latakia Governorate IMHO. It also obviously does not cover Turkish policy vis-a-vis the Syrian Turkmen and how it relates to Turkey’s broader strategy in Syria. In addition, it does not cover the strategic reasons the pro-Syrian government forces, backed by Russia, want to drive the militias out of Latakia Governorate. The scope of this post is large enough already.
-Not all Chechens and Uyghurs came directly from their respective countries of origin (Russia, China, etc.). Some are decendents of refugees who fled their respective homelands (Example: Children of Chechens [some former fighters] who fled during the 2 wars with Russia and have not returned yet) to live in Turkey or Europe. Kommersant Musa Muradov allges the majority of Chechens in Syria are children of refugees living in Europe who were born in Europe. Others are 1st generation refugees (individuals who left their home countries for another country, not their decendents) themselves who went to fight in Syria. Some Kist, a sub-group of Chechens that live in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge, are also fighting in Syria.
-Despite efforts, I would not be surprised at all if there are errors in this post with regard to the militias, their locations, composition, etc. The mosaic of militias in Syria is extensive and very complex. Information can quickly become outdated. The situation on the ground is obviously very dynamic. Alliances, formal and informal, are constantly forged and broken. Individuals may defect and form a new militia, or join another one to create a joint new one or they may take on the name and ideology of the militia they join with. The same is true if one or more militias join with others to form a coalition (Examples: Southern Front, Islamic Front, Jaysh al-Fatah, FSA) or alternatively, leave a coalition. The existence of “Operations Rooms” also complicate alliances and groupings. Some alliances are for one specific battle or campaign, not ideological and/or personnel fusion intended to be sustained very long term. Some militias are defeated in battle and forced to join another militia or face possible death or self-exile. There is also the often opaque involvement of state-support/sponsorship in some cases. For example, as reported by Al-Monitor on August 22, 2013, when Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, then the Kingdom’s head of intelligence, told President Putin in a meeting that “The Chechen groups that threaten the security of the games (the Sochi Winter Olympics of 2014) are controlled by us (Saudi Arabia), and they will not move in the Syrian territory’s direction without coordinating with us. We use them in the face of the Syrian regime…” At the same meeting, Prince Bandar told President Putin that the Saudis, “I have spoken with the Americans before the
visit (to Russia), and they pledged to commit to any understandings that we may reach, especially if we agree on the approach to the Syrian issue.” The very long-winded point is, the topic can be very difficult to stay accurately up-to-date on.
-Confusion about who is active in different areas can also result from what is described in the note above in conjunction with the fact that personnel from various militias are constantly moving around and realigning personnel to provide reinforcements, launch an attack/counterattack, or to consolidate territory. Militias often move from governorate to governorate, or different area(s) within a governorate they are already present in.
-I personally advocate for extra caution to be used when evaluating/sourcing from social media, be it a video, tweet, picture, voice recording, instagram, text message, 3rd party translation from unevaluated sources (and including some certain well-established and often cited ones), etc. Psychological operations (some quite complex) are carried out specificly through social media by virtually all stakeholders involved in the war, directly or indirectly (Arbitrary example: “The Most Disturbing Fake Videos Making the Rounds in Syria.” Tracey Shelton. Global Post. November 12, 2012.).
-A Jamaat is a battalion.
Posted by: Nobody | Dec 11 2015 6:46 utc | 161
I’m lost: Russia repeatedly invites the creators and supporters of ISIS into Syria to fight against them. Then Russia & China support UN Res 2249 which “calls upon” nations to eradicate ISIS safe havens in Syria & Iraq. (But the Res didn’t “authorise”, just “called upon”) Penelope at 65.
Some regularly castigate Putin/Russia for not being agressive enough, not pro-active, determined and stalwart; for being too ‘collaborative, nice’, etc. (Aka, everyone should act like the US /use their power to the max, etc.)
E.g. Ukraine. Putin should have, according to this pov, ‘taken’ the Donbass or even outright marched on Kiev!
Russia cannot openly, deliberately, and unilaterally ‘invade’ a ‘sovereign state’ – e.g. Ukraine, Poland, Latvia.. – Russia is low man on the pole, or if one prefers more attached to international law and compromise and peace (or whatever.)
Invading Ukraine was impossible. (WW3.) All Russia could do was offer humanitarian and covert logistics; it made many moves to keep that conflict damp, low as possible, and then frozen, going for ‘federalisation’ – Minsk accords, which was in line with the EU, Hollande, Merkel. (Biden in his speech at the Rada just now also went for a ‘federalised’ Ukraine, as it would keep it ‘unitary.’)
Syria – a different case. Here, Russia could be on the side of the instituted Gvmt. (Assad) and apply to international laws, as it has done. leading to the ambigous but nevertheless voted in UNSCR – ‘againt’ IS, which is a step forward. In Syria, Russia fights the deathly, rabid, islamic terrorists, a public avowed enemy of all since 9/11, and not valiant pro-EU Ukrainian citizens.
Russia’s effort is double-pronged, diplomatic and military, one cannot work without the other, it concentrates on finding allies, keeping them on board (Iran, Hezb..) and shaming the W into confronting its contradictions and pardon the expression, sh*t or get off the pot.
As for the ‘creators’ of IS, imho the main ones are Saudi Arabia and Turkey (not US-isr in first place..), Putin tried to reason with them thru diplomacy and offering some kind of gingerly alliance or future promises of non-agression (and/or arm-twisting perhaps), maybe just as a trial balloons but that seems to have failed in part for now. (See Turkey’s escalation, agression, though the moves are feeble and low-key.) Not a set-back, as it was expected.
Lisa at 96 says Russia has been trying to buy as much time as possible. This is absolutely the case, and the Syria mess, imho, posed a conumdrum. Let it go, or act? And if we act, when? How?
Posted by: Noirette | Dec 12 2015 16:35 utc | 177
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