Yeah. Exceptional.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 3 2015 20:35 utc | 1

Might be the information that was 'not yet announced' at the Russian presser on Turkey-oil-Da'esh? And I note that Tayyeep bin Ardogan, citizen of Qatar is rightly given second billing in the very droll troll. Da'esh=KSA=Da'esh.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 3 2015 20:43 utc | 2

That last paragraph in President Putin's statement is legit. Nice knowing you, Erodogan.

Posted by: Bruno Marz | Dec 3 2015 21:00 utc | 3

I hope they catch this Ardogan guy. He's a menace to humanity.

Posted by: dh | Dec 3 2015 21:02 utc | 4

Putin is very discreet, but he is committed to winning the war in Syria.
He would not have exposed Erdogan's oil business if Erdogan had simply accepted the fact that the game is over. Instead, Erdogan decided to risk everything and shoot down the Russian bomber. Now his future is completely dependent on people in the west who secretly hate his guts.

Erdogan is a very capable politician who thinks he can maneuver his way out of any situation.
He will not escape Putin.

Posted by: plantman | Dec 3 2015 21:04 utc | 5

The fighter plane incident was a culmination of a clear support for terrorism by Turkey over many years, for instance the ease with which terrorists could transit Turkey and the supply of weapons, the recent disclosure of which resulted in two prominent Turkish journalists being jailed for treason etc. The proven theft [pillage] of oil by ISIL and subsequent sale in Turkey [set out yesterday in the Russian military press conference] puts the top hat on it. Remember these oil transactions are with 'bad' terrorists rather than the so called 'good terrorist' as put about by the US. The NATO member state Turkey is and has for a long time been a state supporter of terrorism, not only aimed initially at Russia's ally Syria, but Russia's vital interests in its underbelly the Caucasus. The wider war between Iran, Syria, Iraq and Hezbollah and Russia as well as being existential, will decide who controls the middle east, that is why the stakes are so high for the US and its satraps in the GCC states. In my opinion the 'arc of resistance' will win.

Posted by: harry law | Dec 3 2015 21:05 utc | 6

Hey, great story! Damn you :)
I'll post a link to mine when it runs tomorrow morning.

Posted by: Joanne Leon | Dec 3 2015 21:14 utc | 7

b's original snap

Posted by: jfl | Dec 3 2015 21:34 utc | 8

The "hoax" name was traced to a tweet by an LA times reporter (@RickSerranoLAT) who said he got it from local police. However, SBDO police later said they hadn't released that name. Apparently it had been tweeted hours earlier by a random Tweep (@Veruca72) who likely got it from a police scanner.

At the start of the SBDO sheriffs 10pm press conference last night, he apologized for the delay in beginning the conf so late, and attributed it to the difficulty in trying to identify the woman's correct name.

So, how did the police get the false name in the first place?

Posted by: Anon | Dec 3 2015 21:34 utc | 9

and the video

Posted by: jfl | Dec 3 2015 21:40 utc | 10

Forgot to add this disturbing fact.. "Mr. Hakan Fidan, Turkish President's staunchest ally, condemned Russian military intervention in Syria, accusing Moscow of trying to 'smother' Syria's Islamist revolution and serious breach of United Nations law.
Fidan further added that in order to deal with the vast number of foreign Jihadists craving to travel to Syria, it is imperative that ISIS must set up a consulate or at least a political office in Istanbul".http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/turkish-intelligence-chief-isis-is.html What, no seat at the UN? Unbelievable.

Posted by: harry law | Dec 3 2015 21:59 utc | 11

IMO , Turkey like Egypt will exprince a period of dis stability, will exprince various revolutionary stages and eventually become independent and out of NATO , unfortunately for that, like Iranians did, they the Turks will have to fight the westerns for many years to establish their I dependance. Is only then when they will gain legitimacy in Sunni streets to lead them.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 3 2015 22:21 utc | 12

Cracking skulls 4 days a week in the 'caliphate'...handful of executions...ah, sure...take a few days off in Antalya on the weekend...why not...? get some sun, have some banter with some western holiday makers...relax, recharge...back to work on Monday, mask on, knife in hand...

Posted by: MadMax2 | Dec 3 2015 22:53 utc | 13

"Let’s be very clear: ISIS is not just a terrorist organization; it is a Sunni terrorist organization. That means it blocks and targets Shi’a. And that means it’s serving the interests of Turkey and Saudi Arabia - even as it poses a threat to them." - Retired Gen. Wesley Clark

Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General and retired U.S. General Wesley Clark revealed in http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-03/general-wesley-clark-isis-serves-interests-us-allies-turkey-and-saudi-arabia

Posted by: shadyl | Dec 3 2015 22:59 utc | 14

@12 ....have a few beers, ogle a few bikinis, send the bill to Qatar.

Posted by: dh | Dec 3 2015 23:06 utc | 15

Shadyl @13

That is not entirely true. Gosh, I JUST wrote about this in the other thread today.

It was Israel and Saudi Arabia that originally decided to use extremists as a weapon as described by Hersh's "The Redirection" back in 2007.

Please don't fall for simple explanations.

KSA needed Israel's help. Israel needed KSA help. They both needed USA help to make the 'arrangement' work.

Israel wants to destroy Hezbollah, grab the Golan Heights, expel the Palestinians, etc. That they can ALSO paint Islam/Arabs as bloodthirsty maniacs is all the better.

This original alliance enticed other collaborators that saw opportunity for gains. For example: Erdogan had friendly relations with Assad before the Syrian Conflict and Western countries want to sell arms and get future reconstruction contracts; etc..

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 3 2015 23:29 utc | 16

Awesome post, b.

Posted by: Guest77 | Dec 3 2015 23:46 utc | 17

>> b's original snap
>> Posted by: jfl | Dec 3, 2015 4:34:03 PM | 8

jfl, your "snap" reminds me of a certain white Ford Bronco. Is that Al Cowlings driving Ardogan to the Mexican border?

Posted by: dumbass | Dec 4 2015 0:04 utc | 18

Thanks b for two excellent commentaries, this one and the former on the San Bernardino shooting.

I seriously doubt Putin would have threatened to nuke Ankara, though I have no doubt he would do it if the situation demands, without a blink. Putin, however, is more subtle than that, and the alleged threat stands in contradiction with his statement on the address to the Russian Assembly,

Our actions will always be guided primarily by responsibility – to ourselves, to our country, to our people. We are not going to rattle the sabre.

There are many other weapons the Russians could have threatened Erdogan with, one of them is throttling the gas supply to Turkey. Erdogan's macho-man braggadocio about Turks being "accustomed to suffering" and having lived without gas "until recently" won't help keep Turkey warm this coming winter, and the "suffering" Erdogan wants to impose on them, contrary to his comfort, can easily be expressed in riots and general discontent.

Russia already shut down the TurkeyStream, and by blocking Erdogan's pipe dream of cutting off a chunk of Syria, oil added, Russia significantly reduced Erdogan's strategic options to very dangerous ones, that is, to continue to bark as loudly as he can as US/UK/NATO's top dog in NATO's southern flank.

Suddenly, Erdogan's options have been reduced to enticing NATO to fight a war against Russia, one that will allow him to fulfill his ambition of providing Turkey with its own source of oil. Unfortunately, his strategic calculations were flawed from the beginning, his best bet would have been to support Assad's "Four Seas Strategy" back in 2009. Now, Erdogan has made all his moves on the ME chessboard, the Russians put him on check, and Putin is in for the kill.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 0:07 utc | 19

Thanks b for two excellent commentaries, this one and the former on the San Bernardino shooting.

I seriously doubt Putin would have threatened to nuke Ankara, though I have no doubt he would do it if the situation demands, without a blink. Putin, however, is more subtle than that, and the alleged threat stands in contradiction with his statement on the address to the Russian Assembly,

Our actions will always be guided primarily by responsibility – to ourselves, to our country, to our people. We are not going to rattle the sabre.

There are many other weapons the Russians could have threatened Erdogan with, one of them is throttling the gas supply to Turkey. Erdogan's macho-man braggadocio about Turks being "accustomed to suffering" and having lived without gas "until recently" won't help keep Turkey warm this coming winter, and the "suffering" Erdogan wants to impose on his people, contrary to his comfort, can easily be expressed in riots and general discontent.

Russia already shut down the TurkeyStream, and by blocking Erdogan's pipe dream of cutting off a chunk of Syria, oil added, Russia significantly reduced Erdogan's strategic options to very dangerous ones, that is, to continue to bark as loudly as he can as US/UK/NATO's top dog in NATO's southern flank.

Suddenly, Erdogan's options have been reduced to enticing NATO to fight a war against Russia, one that will allow him to fulfill his ambition of providing Turkey with its own source of oil. Unfortunately, his strategic calculations were flawed from the beginning, his best bet would have been to support Assad's "Four Seas Strategy" back in 2009. Now, Erdogan has made all his moves on the ME chessboard, the Russians put him on check, and Putin is in for the kill.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 0:10 utc | 20

Thanks b for two excellent commentaries, this one and the former on the San Bernardino shooting.

I seriously doubt Putin would have threatened to nuke Ankara, though I have no doubt he would do it if the situation demands, without a blink. Putin, however, is more subtle than that, and the alleged threat stands in contradiction with his statement on the address to the Russian Assembly,

Our actions will always be guided primarily by responsibility – to ourselves, to our country, to our people. We are not going to rattle the sabre.

There are many other weapons the Russians could have threatened Erdogan with, one of them is throttling the gas supply to Turkey. Erdogan's macho-man braggadocio about Turks being "accustomed to suffering" and having lived without gas "until recently" won't help keep Turkey warm this coming winter, and the "suffering" Erdogan wants to impose on his people, contrary to his comfort, can easily be expressed in riots and general discontent.

Russia already shut down the TurkeyStream, and by blocking Erdogan's pipe dream of cutting off a chunk of Syria, oil added, Russia significantly reduced Erdogan's strategic options to very dangerous ones, that is, to continue to bark as loudly as he can as US/UK/NATO's top dog in NATO's southern flank.

Suddenly, Erdogan's options have been reduced to enticing NATO to fight a war against Russia, one that will allow him to fulfill his ambition of providing Turkey with its own source of oil. Unfortunately, his strategic calculations were flawed from the beginning, his best bet would have been to support Assad's "Four Seas Strategy" back in 2009. Now, Erdogan has made all his moves on the ME chessboard, the Russians put him on check, and Putin is in for the kill.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 0:12 utc | 21

Sorry for the double post, not my doing at all.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 0:14 utc | 22

Guest77 @ #16 Agreed & suck up time for me too here.

Moon of Alabama for me is THE best blog out there covering geo-political events & the M.E. in general. There are other sources out there that are good but the speed at which "B" extensively covers every new significant event is second to none & astounds me as to how the phuk he does it. Also contributing in no small way to the blogs magnificence (Too much . . . . ?? - too bad!), is the comments section, with some very well articulated views & directions of thought, not to mention links to other lesser/little known sites & articles.

Real investigative journalism as it's known no longer exists in the West. Or if it does, it never gets to print, yet Pulitzers are still handed for the limp impersonations of it. The prize should be going to people like "B" & if only say 10% of the English speaking world were to read this blog on a daily basis, for as little as a month or so, I believe there could be an awakening from the consumerist slumber that now engulfs much of mankind. The mankind that's being bombed & driven from their homes on a daily basis have pretty much got the message that everything isn't running as it should .

Again, well done & cheers

Chris in Ch-Ch

Posted by: Kiwicris | Dec 4 2015 0:33 utc | 23

Haha, suck up time? (I was hoping no one would notice).

But yeah. MoA = b = MoA

Though i do enjoy my ride in the clown car

Posted by: Guest77 | Dec 4 2015 0:53 utc | 24

It was said of the Yankees many years ago

"When all you've got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

That policy, and their inane blather about "Statecraft" were contradictory, to say the least, and were always destined to catch up with them. Russians, on the other hand, are beginning to look like the folks who wrote the book One Hundred and One Ways To Skin a Cat. Thus Russians always seems to have sufficient viable options to ensure that they make their own "luck".

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 4 2015 0:58 utc | 25

Putin is in a bind and all he seems able to do about Erdogan is spout belligerent rhetoric for local consumption and impose sanctions that will raise prices for Russian consumers. The Turkish/Russian pipeline deal was already dead and the China gas deal seems stalled or stillborn. This means any curtailing or stopping of contracted gas to Turkey would be the end of Russia as a trusted supplier for anyone and there are other parties including Iran waiting to fill those needed supplies. Putin might be able to hurt Turkey by withholding gas but he would be destroying the Russian gas business.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Dec 4 2015 0:58 utc | 26

Patrick Cockburn on 2 Dec 2015 says the Syrian army has so far suffered "47,000 dead". That's equivalent to an average of 32 soldiers dead per day in the four years since November 2011. He doesn't say where he got the number from. It is quite possibly correct. I guess it's an estimate. I believe it's not far from the truth, if not the actual truth.

For comparison's sake, in the four years of World War One, French armies suffered about 1.1 million soldier combat deaths and 1.4 million soldier deaths from all causes, which is around 800 dead soldiers per day. The population of France in 1914 was about 42 million, which is about twice the population of Syria in 2011. Thus the Syrian army combat deaths are more than ten times smaller than French WWI combat deaths, when reput to equalize overall population sizes.

I've now repeatedly come across a claim that the Syrian army after four years of war is "exhausted", meaning tired and suffering from wear and tear. 'B' on this board is one who has claimed it, and commentator Alexander Mercouris is another example. I believe that's ill-informed, presumptuous, and mistaken. For one thing, this has not been an intense war (see the death counts). For another thing, the Syrian army remains pretty well equipped for fighting: the army's weaponry has not been bigly degraded (some degradation has occurred but it's not big). For another thing, the soldiers' belief in the worthiness of what they're fighting for is undiminished, and the same goes for the spirit of the supporting civilian population. For another thing, they've a reasonable basis for thinking they're eventually going to win. So to repeat, the army is far from being exhausted in soldier headcount, in weapons hardware, and in fighting spirit. It is a fact that the army has underperformed, i.e. has punched with less power than what was expected of them (less than what was expected by themselves and by their supporters, including me). They've adjusted to it by putting the forecasted eventual victory farther out into the future. A few years ago I used to come across commentators saying the Syrian army's underperformance was attributable to the army being inexperienced with this kind of warfare. Today other commentators are saying the army's underperformance is attributable to exhaustion today. Both are mistaken. There are also some who say the army hasn't underperformed, which I say is another mistaken reading of the situation.

Posted by: Ghubar Shabih | Dec 4 2015 1:07 utc | 27

Is Russia presenting their case against Turkey to the UN?

Posted by: JaimeInTexas | Dec 4 2015 1:12 utc | 28

Another defeat for the takfiris and their handlers: the pilgrimage of millions of Shiites to Karbala, Iraq, and Sayyeda Zainab Shrine, Damascus, for the celebration of Arbaeen, despite all the takfiri threats, is a powerful testimony of the successful 4+1 campaign, and the decreasing power of the takfiris both In Iraq and Syria.

Millions Defy Takfiri Threats, Throng Holy Karbala for Arbaeen

Sayyeda Zainab Shrine Stands Loftily in Damascus on Arbaeen Imam Hussein (P)

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 1:26 utc | 29

Putin said: "If they wanted to see us become a danger to ourselves as much as to the world, they won’t get it." But Putin apparently contradicts that sentence in the very next paragraph when he talks about a lust for vengance. Putin earlier said in his speech : "Allah decided to punish the ruling clique in Turkey, by depriving it of any reason or logic." I wish somebody would convince Putin that that's punishment enough, and that Puting should just move on to more constructive things, and forget about the pain of this pinprick.

Posted by: Ghubar Shabih | Dec 4 2015 1:39 utc | 30

#28 @Ghubar - It's one thing to say an army has underperformed when it is fighting another army under normal conditions. Fighting experienced foreign guerrilla fighters on the type of hilly terrain to which they're accustomed on a very widely spread battlefield with booby traps and TOW missiles that largely neutralize any armor advantage the SAA has is a tough challenge. Now that they have true air support they seem to be doing better but more numbers probably will still be needed considering the huge expanse they have to clear--although the most important remaining step is cutting off Daesh's and Al-Nusra's continual re-supply of men, weapons, ammo, and money coming across the Turkish border. The terrorists have been able to fill in any losses while the SAA hasn't had that luxury as draftees don't have the lure of money and virgins so beating a path for the border has seemed a saner option for many.

Posted by: WorldBLee | Dec 4 2015 2:03 utc | 31

Iran and Syria are now under the S-300 umbrella of protection. When is Iraq going to break out from under the empire hold on its sovereignty, and join the Arc of Resistance fully?

Kremlin confirms Russia started supplying S-300 missile systems to Iran

Iranian ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanai late last month said his country had received the first S-300 systems

MOSCOW, December 3. /TASS/. Russia has begun the supplies of S-300 air defense systems to Iran, Russian presidential aide for military-technical cooperation Vladimir Kozhin has told TASS.

"The contract is in action. They’ve begun," Kozhin said in reply to a question.

Iranian ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanai late last month said his country had received the first S-300 systems [...]

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 2:03 utc | 32

Mutual US failures in Ukraine and Turkey

Ironically the economic collapse of Ukraine this very cold winter may do the most damage to Turkey’s economy. Russia supplies about 58% of the natural gas (30 bcm) Turkey uses each year and Iran supplies another 20%. Breaking down the Russian gas supply to Turkey about 31% is imported via West Gas through Ukraine and the remaining 27% imported via the Black Sea Blue Stream pipelines.

While the Ukraine underground natural gas storage for transport to Eastern Europe (Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia) and Turkey is almost full, it cannot currently buy any more from Russia as it is officially bankrupt. Lack of coal purchases from Russia along with “General Winter” will lead to Ukraine stealing EU gas, especially that gas destined for Turkey.

Turkey cannot import more via Iran die to pipeline capacity issues. Turkey currently imports some LNG from Nigeria and Algeria (about 6.5 bcm), although the volumes are limited by a LNG terminal capacity of 14 bcm. These terminals are not equipped with the specialized equipment to handle LNG from Qatar or the US (several years until operational in US).
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/03/turkey-still-needs-russian-gas-via- ukraine.html

Besides, LNG is not competitive with Russian piped natural gas. This did not stop Poland from taking this uneconomic option and building a LNG terminal for Qatar LNG tankers.
http://russia-insider.com/en/tumbleweed-town-kiev-post-gas- transit/ri7635

The US didn’t think this through, what can you expect with Morningstar running the US pipeline geopolitics. Unless the EU provides a lot more aid to Ukraine and Turkey both cookie bitch projects will fail. From what I can see the EU needs trillions just to settle the refugees from the wars they supported. Payback is a bitch.

Posted by: Krollchem | Dec 4 2015 2:24 utc | 33

Iran and Syria are now under the S-300 umbrella of protection. Iraq is lagging, failing to break out from under the empire hold on its sovereignty, dangerously sitting on the fence. Hopefully the example of Syria will give Iraq the needed push to effectively join the Arc of Resistance in full.

Kremlin confirms Russia started supplying S-300 missile systems to Iran

Iranian ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanai late last month said his country had received the first S-300 systems

MOSCOW, December 3. /TASS/. Russia has begun the supplies of S-300 air defense systems to Iran, Russian presidential aide for military-technical cooperation Vladimir Kozhin has told TASS.

"The contract is in action. They’ve begun," Kozhin said in reply to a question.

Iranian ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanai late last month said his country had received the first S-300 systems [...]

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 2:25 utc | 34

It seems to me all that Putin needs to do to get even is continue to destroy all of the rest of the estimated 8500 oil tanker trucks Turkey uses to ship ISIS oil to Turkey.

Just use the satellites, air recon, and drones, and see the giant convoys coming across from Turkey, and once the tail of the snake has entered Syria, destroy the whole snake. Repeat algorithm until all the convoy trucks are destroyed and the convoys stop coming.

Of course, also do the same for all "human humanitarian" and other convoys. 100% destruction of all trucks who cross the border..... especially in large convoys....

Posted by: Erik | Dec 4 2015 2:26 utc | 35

@25, @28 GS @29 WBL

Global Research makes a good point in Turkey’s Downing of Russia’s Aircraft: Was it Coordinated with the US Joint Chiefs of Staff?

Syria and its allies appear to realize that despite much more work to be done, the momentum has finally and irreversibly shifted in their favor. Seizing territory from NATO-backed terrorists and cutting off their supply lines leading in from NATO territory in Turkey will essentially end the war in favor of Damascus, Tehran, and Moscow.

Attempts to provoke Russia, no matter how tempting, will be resisted by Moscow. Any retaliation Russia exacts against Turkey will be done in a matter that negates any affects carrying over to its primary mission in Syria – to win the war.

No more!

They seem rejuvenated. And with the help of Hezbollah and Iran they can now even imagine not just evicting the foreign terrorists but becoming part of the new regional equation of power and a force to be reckoned with on their own.

And all of us feel rejuvenated with them - at least I do. TIAA! There Is An Alternative. Thanks to the Syrians, the Iranians, Hezbollah ... as ever, to the Palestinians ... and to the Russians, for showing us all the way to self-determination : Just do it!

TIAA!

Posted by: jfl | Dec 4 2015 2:36 utc | 36

@32 erik... not a bad idea.. i am sure they have been thinking of this and moved towards doing it too... the west is in cahoots with their bullshite 'moderate' mantra.. too much water under the bridge for things to get fixed here.. waiting for the next chapter to unfold...

Posted by: james | Dec 4 2015 2:39 utc | 37

@17 da

I tuned in earlier and found the 'snap' gone, and a broken link to the video, so I tried to replace them. b's real original snap is now back up in place, much better than the one I found. I don't remember the origin of the video - but I love the sound track ...

Posted by: jfl | Dec 4 2015 2:40 utc | 38

@22 guest

Yes indeed, just another bozo here, grateful for a free seat on the bus. Further, b. If you please.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 4 2015 2:50 utc | 39

When are putin, iran and china going to turn the pressure up on Erdogans backers, Qatar and Saudi and on UAE?

Those three countries are the cause (via funding and ideology) of most of the world's Sunni terrorism. There seems to be no shortage of young brain washed Sunnis willing to kill themselves for US and Israel goals. It doesn't stop until the funding from those three countries, mainly, dries up. Saudi is also a key component in the economic war against Russia and all three are probably funding terrorism and separatism in russia.

No one has touched any of the aforementioned gulf monarchies and that tells them they can continue to get away with whatever they desire.

Posted by: Alaric | Dec 4 2015 3:04 utc | 40

@Krollchem@30

Thanks for a very informative post. Unfortunately the links don't work.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 3:05 utc | 41

@21 - All hail the fifth estate...! We're still free...for now.

Posted by: MadMax2 | Dec 4 2015 3:24 utc | 42

Putin will probably open an office for the YPG in Russia and boost them with military support. It is obvious that Syria is going toward a federation where the Kurds will have some kind of autonomy. This is Erdogan's worst nightmare. That is the AKP Achilles's heel and Putin is targetting it with the tacite support of the USA and many European countries.
The Turkmen and other armed Turkey's allies will be ruthlessly eradicated.
Putin will make sure that Erdogan's clique have no role whatsoever in the future of Syria. It's Erdogan's turn to be demonized. Let's see if he will survive.

Posted by: virgile | Dec 4 2015 3:27 utc | 43

@Alaric@37

No one has touched any of the aforementioned gulf monarchies and that tells them they can continue to get away with whatever they desire.

The Coming War with Qatar

[...] War with Turkey - War with Qatar

Deliberately aggravating relations with Russia, Turkey behaved as if it prepared in advance for this conflict, and enjoys strong support from the outside. Turkey is not only the supporter of the US and NATO, but also Qatar's ally in the Persian Gulf.

It is logical to assume that under conditions of an increased likelihood of a military conflict between Russia and Turkey, especially after the Turks have blocked passage for Russian ships from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, Qatar will take an active part in the military actions on the side of Turkey.

This is not unexpected. Earlier in October 2015 Qatar, suggested that it could intervene militarily with the cooperation of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in order to protect Syrian civilians from the Assad regime, as the country's Foreign Minister Khalid Al-Attiyah told CNN in an interview. The suggestion was made after the start of the Russian military campaign in Syria. At that time, Qatar was prepared for a probable military conflict with Russia.

Qatar supports the same extremists as Turkey, and is backing Turkey in its confrontation with Russia. In the case of the war, open or not, it will increase its assistance to Turkey and anti-Russian Islamists, not only in the Middle East, and will involve itself more openly in the Syrian War.

Forecast

Russia clearly understands the role of Qatar and so it can become one of its major military targets. Unlike the Turkish case, these actions against Qatar can be supported by Iran, which is Qatar’s main adversary in the region. Indeed they confront each other not only in Yemen and Syria. The very existence of a Wahhabist and US-backed Qatar guarding the Persian Gulf is a threat to Iran’s national security.

Qatar and Turkey will make the most of its subversive anti-Russian and anti-Iranian terrorist networks in the Caucasus, in the Volga region, Central Asia, Afghanistan, and South Azerbaijan. In the need for military means to resist the alliance, is exactly where Turkey and Qatar, and possibly Saudi Arabia, will participate against Russia, and Russia will push for a closer alliance with Iran. Since Iran is not interested in a significant deterioration of relations with Turkey, it will try to use this chance to defeat potential Turkish allies in the Middle East, meanwhile trying to salvage relations with Ankara. However in the case of Qatar, unlike Saudi Arabia, the use of a traditional local Shiite factor is limited because of the numerically small Shiite community in the country.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 3:29 utc | 44

to @37....

They key is that Russia is at least in Syria destroying all the fielded terrorist proxy armies of the Saudis and UAE, etc.....

Saudi Arabia et al funds and fields their proxy armies to over throw Assad in Syria, and Russia comes by and annihilates these armies, destroying all their equipment and killing all the proxy mercenaries.....

that is the way Russia tells Saudi Arabia et all that it disapproves of the proxy armies..... simply obliterate them and kill all their mercenaries.... mass annihialtion

that is the only language the Saudi princes can understand.

Of course cruise missile strikes on all of the 200 or so Saudi palaces would also be understood by the Saudi royalty, but at the expense of the Obama et al forces retaliating.....

so to keep things simple for now, the Russians and their allies simply annihilate all equipment and mercenaries of the proxy armies located in Syria....

nobody has any legal basis to retaliate to that perfectly legal act

Posted by: Erik | Dec 4 2015 3:36 utc | 45

@40 - how long will it be that opposition to Erdogan inside Turkey see him as a grave liability...? We know Erdogan loves a crackdown...but surely there will be parts of Turkey who see the current events playing out as Erdogan driving the Kurdish nation straight into the embrace of the bear, right next door. Sure, an official autonomous Kurdish would probably happen anyway, though, the difference in being a US backed or Russia backed entity would mean a whole lot of domestic ammunition for any of Erdogans opponents I would imagine.

Posted by: MadMax2 | Dec 4 2015 3:39 utc | 46

Thanks b, terrific post. If the Putin quotes are correct, one cannot help but wish Russia, and her allies, well, in their quest for justice, and self-determination. The non-empire world lusts for it. Anyone who feels differently, surely, must not be aware of past history where the US is concerned.

Posted by: ben | Dec 4 2015 5:12 utc | 47

@MadMax2 #43

War between Jihadis and Kurds in Turkey is a real possibility if Erdogan keeps on going like he is. But my understanding of Russia's and Iran's interests is that they don't want Turkey to fly apart any more than they want Syria to.

Twitter feed covering Yemen

Twitter feed covering Syria

Posted by: Thirdeye | Dec 4 2015 5:18 utc | 48

Virgile @40,

I don't know why you would celebrate a more independent Kurdistan. Kurds have the same rights as everyone else now. So much for a unitary Syria, huh? The goal for years has been to partition Syria, Iraq, Turkey & Iran-- all by means of an "independent" Kurdistan. Well, perhaps they won't succeed. But be careful what you wish for. The map is here, at the end of the article: http://nsnbc.me/2014/10/30/balkanization-iraq-syria-phase-three-iraqi-pershmerga-arrive-turkey/

When you start separating people by ethnicity you're apt to get more civil war. In N Syria the arabs are already up in arms cuz the Kurds, who are a minority there, are kicking out the Arab-speaking teachers, replacing them w Kurdish-speaking, says T Meyssan.

Posted by: Penelope | Dec 4 2015 5:52 utc | 49

@38 LW

@Krollchem@30 links ...

Can Ukraine Salvage Huge Gas Transit Loss in Time?

Turkey dependent on Russian gas via Ukraine

... they were there, just broken, with a space between butt and tail.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 4 2015 5:56 utc | 50

@43 MM2, @45 3rdI

On an independent Kurdistan ... maybe it'll get torn out of Turkey.

If the Kurds in Syria, Iraq, and Iran can

1. make peace with the rest of their respective countrymen,
2. get control of their respective borders with Turkey, and
3. start the flow of men, arms, and material going in the other direction, to there brothers in Turkey,

that ought to make Erdogan 'popular' enough to inspire the Mussolini solution redux from the Turks he's used and betrayed.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 4 2015 6:05 utc | 51

Russia Threatened To Nuke Ankara.

Yeah, never happened :) Putin doesnt threaten with things he is not prepared to follow through, and Russia wouldnt use nukes even if Turkey would literally start conventional war with Russia. What to speak of some Bosphorus delays.

Russia has many pressure points to apply against Turkey, most we wouldnt even see in public. Why would Putin need to threaten with nukes then? He wouldnt, simple as that.

Posted by: Harry | Dec 4 2015 6:21 utc | 52

Russia Threatened To Nuke Ankara.

Yeah, never happened :) Putin doesnt threaten with things he is not prepared to follow through, and Russia wouldnt use nukes even if Turkey would literally start conventional war with Russia. What to speak of some Bosphorus delays.

Russia has many pressure points to apply against Turkey, most we wouldnt even see in public. Why would Putin need to threaten with nukes then? He wouldnt, simple as that.

Posted by: Harry | Dec 4 2015 6:21 utc | 53

Sorry about double post, MoA bugging again.

Posted by: Harry | Dec 4 2015 6:21 utc | 54

Putin is in a bind and all he seems able to do about Erdogan is spout belligerent rhetoric for local consumption and impose sanctions that will raise prices for Russian consumers. The Turkish/Russian pipeline deal was already dead and the China gas deal seems stalled or stillborn. This means any curtailing or stopping of contracted gas to Turkey would be the end of Russia as a trusted supplier for anyone and there are other parties including Iran waiting to fill those needed supplies. Putin might be able to hurt Turkey by withholding gas but he would be destroying the Russian gas business.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Dec 3, 2015 7:58:28 PM | 24

Wayoutwest is incompletely informed. This week we learned from him that Putin will face formidable problems from his own truckers. But someone forgot to tell the truckers. (There are hiccups with introduction of a toll system, nothing comparable to troubles that UK had with their truckers few years back. And involvement of the Russian opposition was not helpful.) Similarly, if a deal with China is "stillborn", someone forgot to inform the Chinese. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-11/17/content_22478672.htm
By the way, the potential demand for natural gas in China is enormous, and there are some weird problems. Central government is under pressure to do something about air pollution, which is really troubling in the largest cities, but provincial government gain financially from construction of coal fueled power stations. However, the easiest way of decreasing pollution is a switch to natural gas as fuel, and if you worry about global warming and the subsequent peak oil, nuclear power -- but that is much slower. Even if Iran will start supplying their own gas, this will not change the supply balance a lot, especially given the current deficit of electricity in Pakistan, and also India.

The hibernation of "Turkish Stream" affects Russia rather little, because an extra pipe is being added to the "North Stream".

A possible cut in gas supplies to Turkey is not contemplated as a sanction right now, but it is discussed for the eventuality of Turkey defaulting on Montreaux convention, but this convention provides only one reason to deny free passage to vessel, civilian and military, to a Black Sea state: state of war or immediate hostilities. So a default would be a declaration of war, and any cut in supplies would not decrease Russian credibility. One should rather ponder the credibility of Ukrainian government which defaulted on an electricity agreement -- not that they had much of it to loose (I mean, Ukraine can loose electricity, but not credibility).

It is also worth to mention that Turkish straits are convenient but not necessary for Russia. The is an air route, which requires much more fuel, but Russia has no shortage of fuel. There is a Baltic route which is circumnavigates most of Europe, but here costs increases are pretty small. And agreements secure the use of Kaliningrad port (northern Baltic gets quite a bit of ice in winter).

Most importantly, Putin voices public anger strategically, namely, to bottle Turkish military and keep the war as it was, namely by proxy. And the incident gave Russia good excuse to escalate, and very importantly, Russia and Iran have more then enough means to escalate. After doubling the air force in Syria and the increase in the number of airports being used, trucking supplies to rebels will become a thing of the past, and even jeeps will be hard to use, and with another "10 thousand immortals" we will see more energetic offensives. And then there is the Kurdish card (this is really a deck of cards).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 4 2015 6:25 utc | 55

The trick seems to be to apply pressure to Turkey without destabilizing it. It would be easy to destabilize Turkey by making a deal with the Kurds with the ultimate end of regime change in Ankara, but we know how that sort of approach can go. We shouldn't forget that Turkey could become the next playground for Jihadis. They might become Erdogan's trump card against the Kurds and any mainstream Turkish opposition he might face.

Posted by: Thirdeye | Dec 4 2015 6:48 utc | 56

@ Piotr Berman #52 - good summary, walking back a lot of groundless fears. Totally agree. (Your first paragraph stunned me until I realized what you were quoting.)

@ Thirdeye #53 - Nicely put. We will see Russia project power, diplomacy and sheer finesse with Turkey I think. Some of Russia's rarely visible skill will come into the light, I expect, and win further admiration around the world, even from the west.

Parsing Russia's motives, and thus its strategies, is always incomplete when one forgets that Russia truly wants a world at peace and under law. Even when she fights, her efforts are directed to these ends. Charging enemies must be stopped and killed if this is the only way, but the true goals, or so I perceive, are not to destroy but to subdue. Not to crush but to overpower. To end war, and therefrom to build peace to replace it. This is a manner of fighting unknown to the callow west.

Posted by: Grieved | Dec 4 2015 7:07 utc | 57

news from the propaganda
http://angryarab.blogspot.de/2015/12/a-new-low-for-qatari-regime-huffington.html

Posted by: Mina | Dec 4 2015 7:33 utc | 58

○ Pentagon warns Russia’s against arming its warplanes in Syria with air-to-air missiles | Tass |

From previous post here.

Posted by: Oui | Dec 4 2015 9:10 utc | 59

b

All you need now is the Hogwarts Express and a Greedy Golum, and then you'd have the next Harry Potter Lords of the Dance mishmash sequel, to entertain binge-blogging war pron prols.

All aboard, me Preciouses!

Meanwhile, in Tanganyika, la lutte contre l'insécurité est le défi majeur du nouveau ... etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

Posted by: Chipnik | Dec 4 2015 9:55 utc | 60

What are the chances for a nuclear war?

Posted by: Edward | Dec 4 2015 9:55 utc | 61

Kerry has the solution to the crisis in Syria regime change.
"In new comments today at a European security conference, Secretary of State John Kerry again played up the idea that a political transition in Syria, which he reiterated would have to mean the immediate removal of President Bashar Assad, would be a game-changer for the ongoing war.

Incredibly, Kerry termed the removal of Assad not only a “boon for everyone,” but claimed that ISIS would be totally destroyed “in a matter of months” with this transition toward a rebel-dominated government". http://news.antiwar.com/2015/12/03/kerry-we-can-defeat-isis-in-months-if-assad-goes/ So how come nobody at MoA has thought of that?

Posted by: harry law | Dec 4 2015 10:01 utc | 62

52

Just a topical side note to all the bleeting AGW de juere, has anyone graphed background radiation levels since Nagasaki and Hiroshima? I mean, come on, Science!! Wouldn't exactly the same arguments apply equally to Pandemic Radioactivity Increase (PRI, you heard it here first), as apply to warming ice caps and rising seas? Just since Chernobyl, background radioactivity levels are up 10x, and from 3-Mile Island to Hanford to Dounreay, up 10x again since the Bikini tests.

If you plotted background radiation (or deforestation, for that matter) on the same log scale as CO2, then AGW would be flatline, but radioactivity gone a moon launch. There was a 2000CPM spike sweeping across the US, downwind of Fukushima, just last week, 100x background. Entire continents are being stripped of the last forests. Siberia is one giant sawmill.

Imagine if CO2 spiked to 40,000PPM, the Climate Goobers would have a scrotal attack. Their Paris Accords represent a 1000x higher risk of direct harm to every MoA reader than Putin and Erdogan turf spats, yet war pron blares out as relentlessly on MoA as the Star Spangled Banner every 08:00.

Truly pathetic War Howl, or Bread and Circuses, you decide. Either way, war pron is just circle-jerking on the Titanic.

Posted by: Chipnik | Dec 4 2015 10:21 utc | 63

b

Gotcher war pron RIGHT HERE.

No way can Poroshenko make their IMF repayments, that dead cat bounce corrected immediately after the RINO vote in Congress to appropriate $85B for 'war slush funds', in other words, for Kerry-Kohn's promise to backstop the IMF loans to the Kiev Junta, made after the Junta looted A$35B in bullion from the Ukraine Treasury to NYC private banks, then rehypothecated into Poroshenko privatization junk bonds, so greedy to loot for his IMF masters, they're going to let American taxpayers bail the war criminals out, while the other war criminals fiesta in Paris, preparing to loot $3T from the West ... oh, wait!!

Another bleeting post from Mokva on the state of Erdogans popularity, and as Hillary would say, the NEED to "do something" about I$I$.

War pron on!!

Posted by: Chipnik | Dec 4 2015 10:38 utc | 64

@62 hl

I don't regard Kerry's proposition as anything but more of the same, run up the flag pole to see who salutes.

At the end of that blurb at antiwar.com ...

The notion of Assad’s ouster as a cure-all is also politically controversial, with Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz suggesting that keeping Assad in power was important to keeping the US secure, noting the recent problems with ousted dictators elsewhere in the region.

Trump has been the sideshow. Cruz used to be the lunatic fringe, getting elected in TX, now he's going national and is being told to play the real politician. Dershowitz at Harvard called him a brilliant student, or some such epithet. So Israel is OK with Assad.

I'd forget about Kerry. Chalk it up to don't look over here, same as last week. Nothing to see here. Until there is.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 4 2015 10:48 utc | 65

Posted by: Grieved | Dec 4, 2015 2:07:52 AM | 57

That is the only reason people are prepared to accept an empire - if it manages to guarantee prosperity and peace. The - destructive - game of the empires today is to make sure that the other empire will not be able to do this. Yes, Iran, I am looking at you, too.

The Outlook for Western Defense Industries

Compounding this transition, two of the largest developing-market spenders—China and Russia— are effectively off-limits for outside contractors. Chinese defense spending is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 18.5% for the next decade. This is tremendous growth that Western contractors cannot tap. (By 2016, China and Russia will account for 32% of all defense spending among the top five markets worldwide, up from only 17% in 2011.) Defense manufacturers are now fighting to capture the addressable subsegment of developing markets—primarily India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia—even as Russian and Chinese contractors increase their exports to those markets as well.

Posted by: somebody | Dec 4 2015 11:26 utc | 66

@49 Penelope

"When you start separating people by ethnicity you're apt to get more civil war."

Before you can separate they must have been together. It is the forcing of the different ethnic to be close to each other, over time, that causes a civil war.

Not the only reason for wars but a strong factor in many.

As the saying goes, diversity + proximity = war
.

Posted by: JaimeInTexas | Dec 4 2015 11:42 utc | 67

Posted by: JaimeInTexas | Dec 4, 2015 6:42:48 AM | 67

That is rubbish, of course - see American civil war. Or - Spanish civil war. Or whatever. The places that make you think of that - Syria, Ex-Yugoslavia, Caucasus, Pakistan, Afghanistan - are the legacy of empires that played on cultural and religious differences - divide and rule - to the point of resettling people to serve as security barriers. But civil war is always economic - about resources and ownership, ideology is just a smoke screen.

If your analysis was true, the US or Canada would be on the verge of civil war - I am quite certain they are not.

Posted by: somebody | Dec 4 2015 11:54 utc | 68

This sycophant bloodlust has the familiar trappings we in the US papered over during the build up to our countless recent wars. I understand how these emotions manifest; notwithstanding the whole region seems implausibly about to plunge deeper into the abyss.

Posted by: IhaveLittleToAdd | Dec 4 2015 12:51 utc | 69

Chipnik,

>> There was a 2000CPM spike sweeping across the US, downwind of Fukushima, just last week, 100x background.

Cite, please.

Posted by: dumbass | Dec 4 2015 12:56 utc | 70

@jfl@50

Thanks pal, appreciate it.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 13:15 utc | 71

Syria, and Iran, area getting S-300 sam operated by trained locals. This is over and above the S-400 operated by Russia and the S-300 like naval version Fort on board cruiser Mockva stationed off shore the port of Tartus. This means that all of Syria will be covered by overlapping radar with a capable missile defense shield. With increased patrols by Russian air force Mig 30 that can double as fighters and AWACS able to network with Russian SAM batteries plus Kibhny (spelling?) EWS the Syrian air space is no longer a walk in the park. The anti Assad regime change crowd is seeing the window of opportunity closing really fast. But fools rush in. However, the heads of the snake are the Muslim Brotherhood Masonic lodges and the Saudi clerics and Madrassas. Until the heads of the snakes are cut of from funding they will continue to breed terror.

Posted by: Sun Tzu | Dec 4 2015 13:25 utc | 72

Harry Law @ # 54 I think lots of MoA readers actually may have thought of that approach . . . . . 'cept we're mostly not as stupid as the current Sec of State seems to be. Jeeze, How can there phuks be in charge. We truly are in Bizzaroland

Posted by: Kiwicris | Dec 4 2015 13:29 utc | 73

Today Kerry asks moderates to join Assad??:

Assad and the rebels who are not jihadists would temporarily in a sort of unholy alliance can work together, suggested Kerry.

http://www.hotrecentnews.com/en/news/kerry-assad-not-sold/3031

Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 4 2015 13:58 utc | 74

Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 4, 2015 8:58:53 AM | 74

Yep, that is the Russian/US agreement as I guess. Ie. the rebels that actually listen to the US will be safe, but not the rebels who decide to fight on. How that is digested by US "allies" Saudi Arabie, Qatar and Turkey is anybody's guess.

How much safety these US backed rebels in reality will have is another guess.

Posted by: somebody | Dec 4 2015 14:05 utc | 75

@74 So Kerry finally accepts Assad's proposal. It only took 4 years.

Posted by: dh | Dec 4 2015 14:20 utc | 76

B,

Wow, thank you for the article! Great job!
Exactly as you said, Putin IS angry, but NOT with the Turkish people, rather with the "Sultan".

By the way, guys, here is an article you might find interesting:
http://russia-insider.com/en/putins-state-nation-address/ri11631
It has got a video of Putin's speech as well. Check it out!

Posted by: Anna Harvard | Dec 4 2015 14:27 utc | 77

Posted by: dh | Dec 4, 2015 9:20:54 AM | 76

According to Martti Ahtisaari that was Russia's poposal in 2012. I am not sure the same terms apply now.

There also seems agreement for the continuation of the "Alawite security state".

Posted by: somebody | Dec 4 2015 14:49 utc | 78

As the saying goes, diversity + proximity = war

Posted by: JaimeInTexas | Dec 4, 2015 6:42:48 AM | 67

If no one but you says it, can it be called an aphorism? No.
As somebody opined: "rubbish."

Posted by: Benu | Dec 4 2015 15:00 utc | 79

Eren Erdem, a lawmaker from the Republican People's Party, Turkey's largest opposition party, says that he may have found the evidence linking President Recep Erdogan's son-in-law to the dirty oil trade with Daesh.

Commenting on the sensational allegations put forth by Russia on Wednesday that Turkish President Recep Erdogan and his family are directly connected to the trade of dirty oil, Erdem revealed that he is ready to publicize information next week linking Berat Albayrak, President Erdogan's son-in-law and the Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, to the Daesh oil trade.

In the course of his press conference, covered by Sputnik Turkey, Erdem explained that on the basis of his investigation, which is still in progress, "I have been able to establish that there is a very high probability that Berat Albayrak is linked to the supply of oil by the Daesh terrorists."

"Today, the Takvim newspaper called me an American puppet, an Israeli agent, a supporter of the [Kurdish] PKK, and the instigator of a coup…all in the same sentence. I am inclined to view this attack on me as an attempt to belittle my significance, to attack my reputation in the eyes in the public, given that my investigation is a real threat to the government. Such a sharply negative reaction suggests that my assumptions are fair, and I am moving in the right direction to find the truth." http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151203/1031213958/turkey-daesh-oil-proof.html

Posted by: harry law | Dec 4 2015 15:12 utc | 80

Hope Erdem goes into hiding till next week, and has privately funded armed guards with him before he presents his evidence.

Posted by: harry law | Dec 4 2015 15:29 utc | 81

Additional claims of Israeli airstrikes in syria reported by Israeli media. The Israeli media seems to report this every day now likely as a psyop against russia but it might still be true.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israeli-airstrikes-syrian-missiles-israeli-news-reports/

Posted by: Alaric | Dec 4 2015 15:39 utc | 82

Well, that wasn't the smartest Putin's move...
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/memo-putin-going-after-erdogan-personally-may-be-unwise/ri11641
As we know from psychology, "an angry and humiliated man is generally a less pliable man, especially if he is as proud and prickly as Erdogan is known to be".
Now what is going to happen? After Russia & Syria "divorce"? Will anyone really benefit from this aggressive "ping-pong" match? Not so sure...

Posted by: Anna Harvard | Dec 4 2015 15:49 utc | 83

Maybe Putin has a lead on who helped IsUS shoot down their passenger jet two months ago?
Trump tells the Zionists;You will have to make sacrifices!I don't need your money!
Over at the Graun(I need a shower)their take is that he is an antisemite,and just about every commenter defended the Zionists,in an obvious selective response list.
Trump will win.
Hey,Corbyn and the Labour party win bye election!
Are the poohbahs out of touch or what?

Posted by: dahoit | Dec 4 2015 15:56 utc | 84

@83 That assumes all things being equal. Erdogan is an extreme narcissist. Much like dealing with Obama, not recognizing his perceived brilliance is the same as attacking Erdogan with extreme personal insults, perhaps it's even worse from the narcissists point of view. Obama clearly despises Putin because Putin saved Obama from blundering into Syria, not recognizing Obama for a brilliant world leader in Obama's disturbed mind.

Putin's statements are a message to the West that reproachment with Turkey is impossible with Erdogan.

Posted by: NotTimothyGeithner | Dec 4 2015 16:00 utc | 85

@ Jackrabbit 16, pretty much agree with you. But, I just get tired of hearing ad nauseum how evil the Shiites are, yet I never hear of them blowing up mosques, etc.

At what point do we realize Saudi/Pakistian terror connection? Yet, the Sunnis that have suffered the most, Palestinians, get completely ignored by the Saudis.

Posted by: shadyl | Dec 4 2015 16:36 utc | 86

@ Anna Harvard | 83

Well, that wasn't the smartest Putin's move...

Its a calculated move, and its not even about Su-24 or oil trade. Surprised? Russia was pulling all the brakes for Turkey to stop an aggression against Syria (and terrorist funding against Russia as well) for some years now. Erdogan didnt budged, instead kept escalating, and after Russia started bombing campaign - Erdogan increased terrorist support even more.

SU-24 gave Russia an excuse to mount full-on pressure against Turkey, and oil trade with ISIS gave another convenient excuse to rally international pressure against Turkey, to force the issue of closing the border. Stopping arms and jihadis influx matter much more than some oil tankers, which can be bombed to oblivion without border closing anyway.

Mercouris is right that psychologically person after such humiliation would be more intransigent, but what he missed - Erdogan was as intransigent as it gets when Russia was talking nicely anyway. Hence change of tactics - gloves came off, and Erdogan got shock therapy. Whats more important, entire Turkey's economy will dive and there will be massively mounting pressure inside of the country, as well as from Turkey's own alies.

Thats why it was a calculated move to force Turkey sooner rather than later to stop terror campaign. SU-24 and oil are just excuses to push for it.

Posted by: Harry | Dec 4 2015 16:36 utc | 87

Piotr Berman | Dec 4, 2015 1:25:32 AM | 55

Wayoutwest is incompletely informed.

Is that a euphemism for a propagator of misinformation, lies and deceit who never backs up any of his assertions, but demands evidence from everybody and their brother?

The hibernation of "Turkish Stream" affects Russia rather little, because an extra pipe is being added to the "North Stream".

Cutting off Turkey won't affect Russia in the least, Turkey gets its gas through Ukraine, which is being phased out by 2019-20 as a gas conduit for Europe. Europe's demand for gas fluctuates according to the season, and climate change is making weather patterns behave as erratically as Erdogan. Nordstream is the future for Europe, and the Germans are laughing about Erdogan stupidity all the way to the bank.

EU Buyers Turning to Cheaper Pipeline Gas from Russia Over LNG Imports

On another note, you might want to quote other posters in italics, I was not the only one confused about your post and sudden ideological jump, until I realized you were quoting WoW.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 4 2015 16:58 utc | 88

@ 84 dahoit Trump tells the Zionists;You will have to make sacrifices!I don't need your money!

Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 4 2015 17:16 utc | 89

skip italics after money!, sorry..

Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 4 2015 17:25 utc | 90

Thinking this Putin/Erdogan dust-up forward leads to some durn interestin' conclusions about the whole Da'esh enterprise and how it has been able to cause so much trouble.

Vlad throwing the light on stolen Syrian oil going to Turkey w/ details of the rolling pipeline and the border crossings is the first dot in a linear sequence leading to a huge tank-farm on the northern boundary of the port at Ashdod.

The Russian generals are saying that the Da'esh Syrian/Iraqi crude crosses the border at (for instance) the Ibrahim Khalil crossing and rolls west to the refinery at Batman and then Turk ports near Dortyol. In recent (late 2014) GE shots you can see these tanker trucks lined up at the border crossings and also at tank farms and piers at 36° 55.206' N 35° 58.888' E ~ 36° 47.007' N 36° 12.153' E ~ 36° 50.954' N 36° 9.376' E

But once in the ships the oil has to go somewhere. And it looks like 75% goes to the Government of Ysrael (GoY(tm)). The other 75% figure that is reported is that the stolen oil is 75% of GoY's total import. That is a major number to keep in mind. I mean, holy fk, 75% of their total??

So what mad Vlad is really doing is throwing the light on not just the Erdogan Turk-jerks (tm)and their financial complicity in keeping Da'esh afloat, but also the iJews(tm).

Well . . . I guess that explains the USG hands-off approach to bombing Da'esh oil assets. But Cameron obviously didn't get the memo. Today the Brits are crowing about how their first airstrikes have taken out Da'esh oil production facilities in E. Syria. And so what they are attacking, indirectly, is a major oil source for GoY.

This will not stand, man. Sooner or later the iJews are going to get their panties in a twist over this. If that stream of stolen oil is cut off and they have to pay market prices for their oil, boy . . . are they gonna' be pissed.

All of the millions of suffering Syrians being attacked by Da'esh and the other Sunni-goons (tm) -- and all those Syrian refugees -- none of it would have been possible w/out GoY paying out $billions to the Sunni-goons for Syria's stolen oil. Oi vey, it's been win-win-win for the iJews- Turks-USG, at least until Vlad came to town.

Posted by: Denis | Dec 4 2015 17:29 utc | 91

Erdogan behaves like a gangster. There are not only the traffic of oil. Turkey controls the Turkmen militias dismantled in 2011, 80,000 plants of Aleppo, Syria's economic capital, and sent to the machines and tools in Turkey. We must not forget that these mafia activities take place under the eyes of the US government is well aware of these operations

Posted by: Youcef | Dec 4 2015 17:29 utc | 92

Pass the popcorn, please

Ich bin hier
Und du bist mein Sofa

Posted by: john | Dec 4 2015 17:43 utc | 93

I love the suspense Putin and the Russian Federation are allowing to build before the other shoe drops and they come straight out and inform the world that Israel = ISIS. Whoa boy it'll be interesting to watch ZNN and the rest of the zionist news apparatus try to keep a lid on that one. Of course, we know how they'll do it: moar terror.

Posted by: Bruno Marz | Dec 4 2015 17:55 utc | 94

@ harry law 11

After reading a bit more on Hakan Fidan [Oct. 10, 2013, WSJ], I can understand a bit more of Obama's equivocation on going gunho in Syria.

Turkey's Spymaster Plots Own Course on Syria
Hakan Fidan Takes Independent Tack in Wake of Arab Spring

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303643304579107373585228330

Seems, allegiances change from month to month, the end goals seem clear, but chaos and confusion reigns on the ground day to day.

Posted by: shadyl | Dec 4 2015 18:00 utc | 95

Call me a skeptic or a pessimist, but I doubt that North Stream II would be allowed to complete and become operational. One by one, South Stream and Turk Stream have been sabotaged politically by hook or crook. What makes anyone think that it could be different with North Stream II? If it were allowed it would cement German & Russian integration. The Atlanticists are dead set against it. The Baltics, Poland and Ukraine are dead set against it. This is the the way forward for German industrialists but the political class is totally compromised with few exceptions.

Posted by: Sun Tzu | Dec 4 2015 18:09 utc | 96

@Thirdeye 48, Interesting links. I followed one, and it led to the site below. Now who can keep all of these militias straight from day to day. Just crazy.

Moments ago in the Latakia Governorate’s northeastern countryside, the Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade of the Republican Guard – in coordination with the National Defense Forces (NDF) of Qurdaha, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), and Muqawama Souri (Syrian Resistance) – imposed full control over the hilltop village of Katf Al-Ziyarah in the Kurdish Mountains (Jabal Al-Akrad) after a violent battle with the Syrian Al-Qaeda group “Jabhat Al-Nusra”, the Free Syrian Army’s “Liwaa Suqour Al-Ghaab”, and Harakat Ahar Al-Sham. S

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-captures-katf-al-ziyarah-northern-latakia/

And rumor mill says Tashfeen Malik pledged her allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Al-Nusra??

Posted by: shadyl | Dec 4 2015 18:15 utc | 97

@Sun Tzu | 96

I doubt that North Stream II would be allowed to complete and become operational.

It will be, or at least its chances are much, much greater than South or Turk stream. Russia will discontinue gas flow through Ukraine in a few years. What EU will do? Rely on insane amount of costlier LNG tankers instead? I doubt it. Qatar wont get its pipeline through Syria, and Iran told to EU if it wants its gas, use LNG.

What other options EU has? North Stream II is the answer. It may be delayed, but it will happen IMO. Germany might not be fully independent, but it has more weight than some Bulgaria or Turkey.

Posted by: Harry | Dec 4 2015 18:21 utc | 98

@97 Yes indeed she allegedly did. On Facebook under another name. Does that make Mark Zuckerberg complicit?

http://news.yahoo.com/pious-california-killer-showed-no-outward-signs-violence-081939530.html#

Posted by: dh | Dec 4 2015 18:23 utc | 99

CBSNews interviews Farook's sister & his coworker that sat next to him http://www.cbsnews.com/news/san-bernardino-shooting-syed-rizwan-farook-sister-saira-khan-speaks-out-disbelief/

"Christian Nwadike was shocked when he learned the man accused of gunning down over a dozen people turned out to be the coworker he sat only feet from for five years.

He said Farook was different after he returned from Saudi Arabia.

"Do you believe that he was radicalized?" Begnaud asked him.

"Yes, by the wife. I think he married a terrorist," Nwadike said.

"He married a terrorist?"

"Yes," Nwadike responded.

A law enforcement source tells CBS News that the bombs found in the couple's home are near carbon copies of explosives shown in an issue of
al Qaeda's on-line magazine "Inspire,"
which
printed instructions on "how to build a bomb in the kitchen of your mom."

On behalf of their family, Farhan and Saira expressed their condolences.

"I want to say that we are deeply saddened by what took place and we can't imagine the loss that everybody has gone through, all the people who are injured or hurt badly...our thoughts and prayers are going out to them," Saira said.

Saira insists she has no idea what motivated her brother and his wife to go on a deadly rampage. She and Farhan are left wondering -- could they have stopped it?

"So many things I asked myself. I ask myself if I had called him that morning or the night before, asked him how he was doing, what he was up to. If I had any inclination, maybe I could have stopped it," Saira said.

"Did you see weapons in their home?" Begnaud asked.

"He had guns," Farhan said, "but he purchased from regular stores. Like handguns somebody would have."

On Thursday, an FBI evidence response team combed through Farook's rental home. Inside, they found more than 4,500 bullets, 12 pipe bombs and enough material and tools to build several more.

"Even I was surprised...that somebody can go and buy that much weapons," Farhan said.

Saira said her brother did not talk much.

"He was always shy and quiet," she said.

She also said she liked Farook's wife.

"She was also shy and quiet, kept to herself," Saira said.

Saira said she hasn't had time to process what's happened.

...

Farhan said he felt an obligation to address the victims on the night of the shooting.

"I wanted to go there and talk to the victims, people who were hurt... So I love this country, I love the people," Farhan said. "And I felt responsible to go and tell this to the people."

"Do you think your brother deserves to be forgiven?" Begnaud asked Saira.

"That's a hard question," she said. "I don't even know if I would forgive him. Just because of what he did."

Farhan said, right now, he could not forgive Farook.

"With what he did, no. What he did to his own family, to his daughter, to our family, to the innocent people there -- no. I wouldn't forgive him," Farhan said.

Posted by: Jiu Jitsu | Dec 4 2015 18:30 utc | 100