Big Christmas Gifts For Syria - Alloush Killed, Yarmouk Cleared
Today the Syrian airforce used air delivered missiles on buildings where a meeting of Jaish al-Islam (Army of Islam) leaders and others tool place and killed its leader Zahran Alloush, several of his lieutenants and some leading personal from Ahrar al-Shams, Failaq al Rahman, another anti-government Salafist group, and Jabhat al-Nusra.
Alloush, here a video of him preaching, was an extremely sectarian man. He called for the "cleansing" of all Alawite and Shia from Syria and he put Alawite women into cages on marketplaces to use them as human shields against government attacks. He praised Osama Bin Laden. Two Years ago Joshua Landis provided a profile of Alloush with some translation of his speeches.
Alloush had many enemies. Unlike other "moderates" he fought not only against the government. When challenged by ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra or any local competition he fought them too. In the eyes of some Gulf propagandists that made him a "moderate". But his ideologically positions were nearly identical to those of the Islamic State or al-Qaeda. His pasture was the Ghouta area, east of Damascus and he had about 12,000 troops under his command. The Saudis and the Turks payed him and his men.
That the meeting could be targeted is great success for the Syrian and Russian intelligence.
In another success today some 2,000 Islamic State followers and their immediate families left Yarmouk after a deal with the government. Yarmouk is a large Palestinian quarter in Damascus. The men were allowed to leave to east Syria where the Islamic State rules. Heavy weapons were collected by the government and the Syrian army will take control of Yarmouk and two nearby quarters.
These are two very big Christmas gifts Syria received today. While Alloush will be replaced, his "army" is likely to fall apart under any less brutal and charismatic leader. Yarmouk will likely stay pacified for the foreseeable future.
Posted by b on December 25, 2015 at 19:46 UTC | Permalink
next page »So what's the eventual story for Raqqa? Will ISIL be allowed to keep it and form isilstan/sunnistan after Aleppo/Idlib/Ramadi are retaken?
Posted by: Refocus | Dec 25 2015 21:05 utc | 2
Quid Pro Quo .... Israel martyrs Samir Kantar and Russia/Syria martyrs the rebel leader Mohammed Zahran Alloush of the Saudi private army (founded by Prince Bandar) with a few other rebel leaders. A nice exchange of Xmas gifts.
A news couple days ago - death of that Druze man dedicated to Palestinian cause killed in alleged Israeli air strike and now this in also air-stike make me to think whether the military field is clearing (of opponents of political solution) and preparing for the political solution.
Without having "human intelligence" on the ground chances are that somebody is killed by air strike are almost zero, or an accidental.
I'd seen this before in the Bosnian war when a military commanders (who were uncompromising in its political views) were killed or perished mysteriously than to later to found out there were in disagreement with the political elite.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 25 2015 21:20 utc | 4
As the blogger Urs1798 has noted, Zahran Alloush was the prime suspect for the Ghouta massacres of 21 August 2013. The OPCW team reported that their visits to Ghouta were in the custody of "a leader of the opposition forces who was deemed prominent in the area" . This could hardly have been anyone but Alloush. Maybe with Alloush gone, some of those who were not directly involved in the massacres will be more ready to talk.
Posted by: pmr9 | Dec 25 2015 21:33 utc | 5
@ Neretva, Interesting theory. Is it possible the Saudis gave Alloush and his crew to the Russians? Their other behavior does not seem consistent with that, since they so far have not budged on "Assad must go" and I don't think they are ready to accept a secular Syria. The murder of Samir Kuntar for opposing a peace deal seems to make little sense. He was a Hizbullah member and would have followed their orders to stand down if such orders were ever given.
Posted by: Lysander | Dec 25 2015 21:36 utc | 6
@4 interesting observation.. I would expect these assassinations to be target-upon-acquisition situations, but maybe there is something in the works..
I think Russia's primary objective is to restore peace and get back to business in the region ASAP
Posted by: Refocus | Dec 25 2015 21:40 utc | 7
The "Angry Arab" had this to say:
"If you wish to offer condolences about Alloush, you may either send condolences to the nearest Saudi embassy or to one of the three wives that Alloush was married to--simultaneously." http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-family-of-feminist-albeit.html
The Strategic Culture foundation adds:
Critics have accused Jaysh al-Islam of methods comparable to those of Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) militants, as it reportedly resorts to the same inhumane methods used by the terrorist group, including public executions of prisoners.Alloush has called for the cleansing of Alawites and Shiites in various IS-like propaganda videos posted on YouTube.
The extremist group has called the Al-Nusra Front “our brothers,” adding that “they fight alongside us.” http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/12/26/top-syrian-rebel-leader-zahran-alloush-killed-airstrike-damascus-suburb.html
○ Leader of Saudi Private Army Killed by [Russian] Airstrike In Damascus
○ Zahran Alloush: His Ideology and Beliefs | Syria Comment – Dec. 15, 2013 |
Yarmouk is a refugee camp and ghetto for Palestinians, not a "quarter," as in "neighborhood." People there do not have rights of Syrians. Can't work, etc. They have been starved during the uprising. It is good the ISIS will be gone, though.
Posted by: lindaj | Dec 25 2015 23:47 utc | 11
Posted by: Lysander | Dec 25, 2015 4:36:04 PM | 6
I agree with Neretva'43 | Dec 25, 2015 4:20:10 PM | 4. According to German BND fed media there was a split between Kuntar and Hezbollah beginning of this year as Kuntar was bent on fighting Israel and neither Syria nor Hezbollah could use another front. BND know a few things as they mediated the prisoner/corpse exchange between Israel and Hezbollah.
There is also this: Qatar and Russia agree on Syria peace plans and Saudi king says Riyadh working to keep Syria as unified nation
Saudi Arabia's King Salman said his government was striving to maintain Syria as a unified nation inclusive of all sects, according to the Twitter account of the Saudi Shura Council on Wednesday.
This is not what Alloush fought for if reports are correct.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 0:35 utc | 12
At 12,
Very doubtful. There are a million ways Hizbullah could stop Kuntar without killing him. The Israelis after every such murder have an incentive to so discord among their enemies. Hence the rumors of an inside job. What the BND knows and what it shares with the public are two entirely separate things. They are a western intelligence agency and are thus squarely on the side of the Israelis and would happily spread whatever disinformation deemed useful.
Posted by: Lysander | Dec 26 2015 0:45 utc | 13
It is clear that the insurgent groups are losing on all fronts. At the Jordan border, Yarmouk camp, Homs, Ghouta, Latakia, Palmyra, and Aleppo. The momentum is clearly with the government and one can discern a popular dynamic to the war, with government forces reenergized and feeding off increased popular support. The last two months have been a grinding phase but we will probably see some collapses of jihadist positions soon. The Russian intervention is proving to be highly successful, contrary to the US media and pundit line.
Posted by: Red brick | Dec 26 2015 1:22 utc | 14
So what's the eventual story for Raqqa? Will ISIL be allowed to keep it and form isilstan/sunnistan after Aleppo/Idlib/Ramadi are retaken?
Posted by: Refocus | Dec 25, 2015 4:05:49 PM | 2
My estimate is that all Syria and Iraq will be free of all Jihadis soon and those that are now being transported to other areas will either expire in battle or melt into the refugee centers in Turkey.
The only question is, when will Turkey close it's borders and what will it take to make them close their borders for Jihadis? No open Turkish borders = no Jihadis and no Isilstan....
Posted by: Burning Spear | Dec 26 2015 1:31 utc | 15
@Oui@3
Me think you're jumping to hurried conclusions without any evidence, dumping logic for the sake of speculation, same with the poster after you. The commonplace adage that "in war, truth is the first casualty" should not be a reason to discard a logical process connecting the dots before asserting without a doubt and without proof Qantar/Alloush killings were a quid pro quo.
We are a billion light-years from learning even a bit about the situation on the ground in Syria, and even when anything and everything is possible (quid pro quo, elimination of cadres opposed to political process, etc.), we still don't know how Qantar was killed for sure ("unconfirmed reports" from your Booman Tribune link), let alone motives for the killing and surrounding incriminating elements.
I totally agree with Lysander@13 about the well-known role of the German MSM as an arm of the CIA/Mossad, and the zio-nazis are masters at deception. Quntar's body was still warm when all kind of rumors were spread on the MSM/blogosphere by the usual suspects, reason which adding further speculation to the dis/misinformation only helps the empire and its minions in their divisive tactics.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26 2015 1:50 utc | 16
There will be a race for Raqqa. The US will seek to use its proxies as leverage in negotiations. Especially if the latter can control oil wells. But, the popular dynamic to the government initiative will likely be strong enough to resist any petty US machinations. The US will have to risk a major war if it wants to spoil Asads inevitable victory. The SAA and its allies will spend the next month trying to surround any remaining bastions of jihadist activity -- particularly in Idlib, Damascus, and Aleppo. If the US carries on with its duplicitous negotiating games in late January, the Syrian-Russian alliance will starve and eliminate the remaining opposition.
Posted by: Red brick | Dec 26 2015 1:52 utc | 17
“They are a western intelligence agency and are thus squarely on the side of the Israelis and would happily spread whatever disinformation deemed useful.”
Posted by: Lysander | Dec 25, 2015 7:45:46 PM | 13
You are absolutely right, BND is the same SOB western agency who (at the request/order of Americans and Israelis) gave the fake so called “laptop of death” to IAEA on the Iranian nuclear case.
With what happened in Ukrainian, those who still believe, Europe and in particular Germany, has or can have any foreign policy sovereignty “need to have their heads examined”.
Posted by: kooshy | Dec 26 2015 3:21 utc | 18
This statement from b: "That the meeting could be targeted is great success for the Syrian and Russian intelligence."
If this perspective is true, then it speaks volumes about the "eyes on the ground" of the alliance forces. Eyes first, boots second.
I'll take this as a Christmas gift. Thanks!
Posted by: Grieved | Dec 26 2015 4:05 utc | 19
@15 I hope your estimation is right, if it happens as you estimate - i suspect the u.s. will take posture against Assad similar to Saddam who took decades to topple but I'm not sure the end result is the same w/ russia in the mix. (he is of course not saddam or qaddafi, actually quite the opposite which is the sad part about the whole thing) but ultimately I think we all want what the Syrian people want and it's becoming increasingly hard to tell - I think the u.s. election this year will be huge as it pertains to the levant and what happens next but the deep state often continues pursuing the same goals it just switches from covert to overt whether a democrat or repub is in office. my 2 cents .. ultimately I have no clue!
The siege of yarmouk and hajar al Aswad gave good result: the Islamist fighters are surrendering and they are not taken prisoner,they are moved to al Raqqa where they will bombed by just everybody,Russians,American,french, you name it. They will either die or flee to Iraq and Turkey.
This will be soon repeated in Jobar and Daraa.
It looks promising for the Syrian government and its supporters. As the commander in chief of the army, Bashar al Assad will become the defiant hero who vanquished Syria's enemies. Who s talking about removing him?
Posted by: Virgile | Dec 26 2015 5:37 utc | 22
The death of Zahran Alloush by Aaron Lund
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/death-of-zahran-alloush-by-aron-lund/
Posted by: Virgile | Dec 26 2015 6:07 utc | 23
This is indeed a merry christmas gift for all men of goodwill. It feels like the Syrian government (not regime) is actually winning!
Posted by: Fernando | Dec 26 2015 6:28 utc | 24
Like their close allies, moreover, Alloush and his coalition reject the idea of a political settlement with a secular Syrian state authority, with or without Assad.If it is so obvious that the Riyadh conference and the larger scheme for peace negotiations are not going to come to fruition, why has the Obama administration been pushing it?
Alloush was an obstacle to a political transition in Syria, so perhaps the intel on his whereabouts was a christmas gift from the US in order to get the Riyadh conference alive and moving forward?
Posted by: never mind | Dec 26 2015 6:40 utc | 25
PCR's Christmas message.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/12/23/christmas-column-2015/
Posted by: Penelope | Dec 26 2015 7:00 utc | 26
never mind @25:
"Alloush was an obstacle to a political transition in Syria, so perhaps the intel on his whereabouts was a christmas gift from the US in order to get the Riyadh conference alive and moving forward?"
No. Alloush has been playing 'moderate' for the past few months and was not an obstacle to the fantasy carve up of Syria that the U.S. dreams is still possible. The Riyadh process won't go forward because it is disconnected from the reality that Syria is strong now. Conclusion: the people who matter know that the peace process is war, the bad guys are in retreat, and there's nothing Erdogan, the CIA or the Saudis can do about it.
Posted by: Lysander | Dec 25, 2015 7:45:46 PM | 13
From what I read Kuntar's group was a Syrian government linked outfit. This actually makes sense as the Syrian government would wish to control what is going on in the Golan.
If you prefer a Russian source spreading rumours
"Jaramana is completely under the control of the [Syrian] government intelligence, we are unable to reach it. Actually, in principle, we have no 'secret groups' for special operations, which might have claimed responsibility for the murder," Hussam Awak of FSA said.He added that such an operation was beyond the capabilities of the FSA, something the scale of destruction on the ground proves.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 7:58 utc | 28
Posted by: somebody | December 26, 2015 at 02:58 AM
add to - of course BND has a motive. In this case pushing back against attempts to declare Hezbollah's political wing a terrorist organisation.
Russia's motive to declare FSA innocent same motive BND above - they want to be able to work with them.
I guess, the Syrian goernment does not want to work with FSA - not really.
Whoever FSA are.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 8:08 utc | 29
it's pretty hard to work with some non existent entity...
Posted by: xmasucks | Dec 26 2015 9:03 utc | 30
Putin Says Russia Is Backing Some Syrian Opposition Forces
NPR's Corey Flintoff reports that during the speech:"Putin said Russia has received targeting information from the Free Syrian Army, and used it to hit what he called 'terrorist' positions.
"Russia strongly backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the civil war, but now Putin seems to be saying that he is also aiding some groups that oppose both Assad and the Islamic State."
The US promoted Kurdish, Arab, Assyrian force supposed to take Raqqa?
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 10:20 utc | 31
The view from Kurdistan
Does Russia have an exit strategy for the Middle East?
Aside from these reported Russian outreaches to Iraq’s Sunni tribesmen the Russians have also been claiming they want to win over the Free Syrian Army (FSA) group in Syria as a force to work with against the likes of ISIS (there have been rumours in the Turkish press that the Russians plan to give close air support to a Syrian Kurdish offensive aimed at closing off the remaining part of Syria’s northwestern border with Turkey). While Russia has claimed on occasion that it is coordinating air strikes with the group the FSA denies this to be so claiming that Russia is actually bombing them on Assad’s behalf. A Russian strategy which does try to win over the FSA and guarantee them an agreeable compromise in return for their ad-hoc coordination against the Islamists would be a smart policy for the Russians to pursue. Russia’s clear aim is, after all, to reestablish Syria as a formidable client regime, and that regime’s protection and survival depends upon a formidable army that can effectively control the country which is certainly not something the likes of Hezbollah and/or the NDF can ever effectively do. By reaching a compromise with some of the Sunni groups Russia can form the basis for a reinvigorated national army for Syria which could prop-up a, possibly even post-Assad, client regime for Moscow in that strategically-important country which could in turn safeguard Russia’s strategic interests and simultaneously combat Islamists.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 10:54 utc | 33
Also from Kurdistan - Russia sharing intelligence with Taliban against ISIS
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 10:55 utc | 34
somebody @33: That analysis seems flawed if we remember how small and inconsequential the FSA is. And without Saudi money it would be nothing at all. There are many many Sunnis in the actual Syrian national army. So, what already exists, a multi-faith army dedicated to a secular or at least religiously tolerant Syria already exists. How powerful it is, not sure what the blockquote wants -- vis a vis Israel or Turkey? -- is not important. It should be able handle normal business within its borders, and in exceptional circumstances (the next time the Saudis and Americans want to destroy Syria) the Russians will help out again.
Posted by: Au | Dec 25, 2015 11:16:39 PM | 20
According to Pepe Escobar in http://www.opednews.com/articles/Meet-the-Sultan-of-Civil-W-by-Pepe-Escobar-Israel_Negotiation_Neocons_Oil-151224-893.html
the issue will be whether the various oil interests will be able to come to an agreement that would satisfy all sides involved. If they can agree to share the oil, there will be no need for proxy armies. And therefore, the Jihadis will no longer be needed by various interest groups (USA, Turkey, Saudi, Qatar).
As far as US elections and foreign policy and especially the Levant, I haven't heard anybody in the Washington establishment (and especially presidential candidates) offer any knowledgeable information let alone solutions. I think Washington is becoming increasingly irrelevant as a result of amateur diplomats and professional warmakers running the country.
Extremist Islamism will be a fact of life for many generations but without support from wealthy business state interests (again, USA, Turkey, Saudi, Qatar) they will be far less effective in destabilizing countries.
Look what happened.....we almost allowed various Jihadis to conquer Syria and Iraq? Think about that.
Posted by: Burning Spear | Dec 26 2015 12:07 utc | 36
Posted by: fairleft | Dec 26, 2015 6:48:27 AM | 35
We don't know, do we? Syrian army/Hezbollah would be nowhere without Russia, and with Russian air support it is taking a hell of a time.
Same Iraq - Iraqi army is nowhere with US air support, Afghanistan Taliban etc.
Basically in some countries lots of people don't believe in a state.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 12:16 utc | 37
PCR's Christmas message.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/12/23/christmas-column-2015/
Posted by: Penelope | Dec 26, 2015 2:00:23 AM | 26
PCR has gone off the rails.
Posted by: fast freddy | Dec 26 2015 13:20 utc | 38
@Lysander | Dec 25, 2015 7:45:46 PM | 13
That's very much common knowledge, isn't it? Also, BND is under the US control, in absolute sense of the word. Just as in case of S. Hersh, BND will publish when and what their master want that.
Isn't this derivative of Hersh's article?
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Dec-24/328873-us-encouraged-coup-againt-assad-in-2011-wsj.ashx
The empire want us too see Syrian's destruction in new light, as a benevolent force?! Or just as little evil as possible.
I must say that I never heard of Samir Kuntar. Principal reason that I went in speculation was rather laconic regime's info about his assassination. Zionist regime comes as a very convenient for blame in multiple occasions.
As someone who spent 30 years in a Nazi's dungeons he had plenty of reasons to continue fight against them - I would say an enemy of humanity. He was a Druze and yet fight for Palestinians cause this fact alone make him dangerous, to everyone in West Asia including
Assad himself. Solidarity is not tribal value at all, contrary, and Hezbolah is very sectarian party. Solidarity is communistic and communal value in today's reactionary world it is no no. Kuntar was unusual man, it seems he doesn't fit casts of West Asia's profiles.
While we will never know, he maybe wanted to open new front against Nazis, on Golan, and it is not in interest of any party, it was not even while the regime in Damascus was at top of its might. I believe his murder was an inside job.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 13:26 utc | 39
Russia officially contradicts Hersh
Pentagon refuses to share intel on ISIS until Moscow’s stance on Assad changes
In other news Jihadis refuse to leave Damascus giving the assassination of their leaders as a reason and Russia wants Turkish MP's claim of Sarin transported from Turkey to Ghouta taken up by UN.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 14:15 utc | 40
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 25, 2015 8:50:49 PM | 16
I'm aware it's a bit of speculation although I would prefer the term educated guess. In the attack of Israel killing Samir Kantar and Farhan al-Shaalan, there were many improbabilities and we all speculated about: how could this strike happen under the nose of Russian air defenses. To me it's clear the military cooperation about air space made between Netanyahu and Putin is on solid footing. Russian planes have crosed the Israeli frontier without any threats or sanctions. Quid pro quo, the fighter jets of the IAF fly under similar conditions along the Syrian border.
The Druze are selected by Israel as loyal fighters in the IDF. Israel wants to secure its frontier along the Golan Heights by infiltrating the Druze community on both sides of the border and by supporting the advances of Jabhat al-Nusra. The terror group has conquered the area formerly held by the Syrian Army upto the important town of Quneitra. The logistic lines of support come from Jordan and the allied forces present: the US and British special forces plus Saudi Arabia.
The death of the Druze fighters is a setback for Syria and Hezbollah in #Jaramana. Israel and al-Nusra will profit from these deaths. On the other hand, the Syrian/Russian air strike on Ghouta suburb of Damascus that killed Alloush is clearly to advance the cause of the Assad regime by upcoming negotiations and a bold strike at the heart of the Saudi backed, most powerful terror group.
Jaysh al-Islam is a coalition of Islamist and Salafist units mainly headquartered in the Damascus neighborhoods of Eastern Ghouta and Douma, where it controls large territories. The rebel group includes thousands of trained fighters and is seen as the biggest and the most organized.
○ ISW map of frontlines in Syria – Dec. 23, 2015 [pdf]
In detail, this map proves my point, Al Nusra controls the area along the Golan Heights and the terror group has breached the UN armistice lines. It also shows the poor state of the rebel held areas overall in Syria and the dominance of Hezbollah fighters along the Lebanese/Syrian border. It's all quite logical.
○ Zahran Alloush: His Ideology and Beliefs | Syria Comment – Dec. 15, 2013 |
Is Alloush the most powerful leader in rebel-held Syria?
He holds the title of military commander of the most powerful militia in Syria, but that is only if we assume that the IF is actually one militia, as it claims. In reality, it is made up of a number of powerful militias. Hassan Aboud, the head of Ahrar al-Sham, may actually be more powerful than Alloush [at the time].
The Ahrar al-Sham leadership was decimated in an attack on its bunker near Idlib where a top-level meeting took place in September 2014.
Aboud, who was also known as Abu Abdullah al-Hamawi, was imprisoned by the Syrian authorities after taking part in the insurgency in Iraq but released in early 2011 as part of an amnesty. He helped found Ahrar al-Sham (Free Men of the Levant) in Idlib province in late 2011 and in December 2012 formed the Syrian Islamic Front (SIF) with 10 other hardline Islamist groups.
Before its dissolution in November 2013, when the creation of the Islamic Front was announced, SIF had become the most powerful rebel force. The Islamic Front refuses to come under the umbrella of the Western-backed Supreme Military Council (SMC) of the Free Syrian Army, but co-operates with SMC-aligned brigades on the battlefield, as well as the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria.
○ Recent Developments On A Diplomatic Solution for Syria - Conferences
Pro-Saudi Gulf news:
Killing of top Syria rebel Zahran Alloush a turning point
Alloush death and expected evacuation of Islamists tips balance in favour of regime and Russia
Posted by: virgile | Dec 26 2015 14:22 utc | 44
Newly appointed commander of Jaysh al-Islam is Abu Hummam Buwaydani.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 14:38 utc | 45
@Refocus@2
So what's the eventual story for Raqqa? Will ISIL be allowed to keep it and form isilstan/sunnistan after Aleppo/Idlib/Ramadi are retaken?
@Burning Spear@15
My estimate is that all Syria and Iraq will be free of all Jihadis soon and those that are now being transported to other areas will either expire in battle or melt into the refugee centers in Turkey.
The only question is, when will Turkey close it's borders and what will it take to make them close their borders for Jihadis? No open Turkish borders = no Jihadis and no Isilstan....
@Red brick@17
There will be a race for Raqqa. The US will seek to use its proxies as leverage in negotiations. Especially if the latter can control oil wells. But, the popular dynamic to the government initiative will likely be strong enough to resist any petty US machinations. The US will have to risk a major war if it wants to spoil Asads inevitable victory. The SAA and its allies will spend the next month trying to surround any remaining bastions of jihadist activity -- particularly in Idlib, Damascus, and Aleppo. If the US carries on with its duplicitous negotiating games in late January, the Syrian-Russian alliance will starve and eliminate the remaining opposition.
@Au@21
@15 as far as Raqqa goes ... I think they get there Caliphate
----------------------------
Raqqa will have to be worked out within the legal framework established by UN Resolution 2254, and previous ones. There are two articles on UN R2254 worth to read, from which you can extract your own conclusions as to the future of Raqqa and other areas/towns in Syria. As in any war, the state of the battleground will frame any peace talks arrangements, but legal documents will always be a point of reference for all sides of the conflict.
Syria agrees to enter fresh peace talks, amid new rebel evacuation deals
[...] Last week, the UN Security Council unanimously agreed a resolution, which calls for Syria peace talks to begin in early January. It also calls for a nationwide cease-fire in Syria to come into effect "as soon as the representatives of the Syrian government and the opposition have begun initial steps towards a political transition under UN auspices."The resolution also says that the truce should be carried out in parallel with the talks. Still, actions against terrorist groups would not be affected, meaning that Russian, French and U.S. air strikes against Islamic State (IS) will continue.
Analysts in Syria said the new resolution has reflected a new understanding between Moscow and Washington, particularly after the two seem to have overlooked some details that have for long been obstacles standing in the face of an international consensus, mainly the issue of the Syrian presidency.
The new resolution included the Syrians' right to choose their leadership, without having a clear call for President Bashar al-Assad's departure.
During his meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing, al-Moallem said that a progress in the efforts to reach a political solutions is linked to victory over terrorism which has become a matter of global priority and requires pushing forward the international efforts to dry up the sources of terrorism and prevent the infiltration of terrorists across the border.
The minister added that any attempt be any international party to interfere in the Syrians' right to decide their future is rejected.
For her part, Syria's Presidential Political and Media Advisor, Buthaina Shaba'an said in a recent interview that the adoption of new roadmap at Security Council was prompted by the West' failure in Syria, the success of the Russian vision and the spread of terrorism to the US and France.
Putting this resolution into effect depends on whether the terrorism-sponsoring countries come to believe that they have reached an impasse and have to change their position, said Shaba'an, adding that "now it is high time that the resolution be implemented if there is an international will and real intention to stop targeting and draining Syria."
Essential for the implementation of these resolutions is having the Turkish borders closed to the terrorists and having the countries funding and arming terrorists held accountable, Shaba'an noted.
"If they do that, it would be a real prelude to an effective political process with us definitely involved," she said, adding that the Syrian decision will be extremely independent in the negotiations next month in Geneva.
While the political wheels were rolling in the international arena, the Syrian government seemed determined to continue with local truce its Ministry of National Reconciliation with the help of the UN have been implementing.
A source told Xinhua on Thursday that as many as 5,000 armed militants and their families are planned to be evacuated from the al-Hajar al-Aswad and al-Qadam districts south of the capital Damascus next Saturday.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source said members of the Islamic State (IS) and the al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front are among the hardline militants who will be evacuated to rebel-held areas in northern Syria, namely to the de facto city of al-Raqqa and the town of Mare' in the countryside of the northern province of Aleppo.
Those radicals have rejected to be reconciled with the government and that explains their evacuation, while the rebels who will stay in the districts will have to hand over their weapons and surrender themselves to the Syrian authorities to have their criminal records cleared under the deal [...]
From the Geneva Communiqué to Resolution 2254
The terms of Resolution 2254 mostly confirm those of the Geneva Communiqué, which was adopted three years ago. The two greatest military powers in the world agree that the Syrian Arab Republic should be maintained, while the imperialists - with France in the front line – pursue their dream of changing the Syrian régime by force. But the world has changed over the last few years, and it will not be as easy to sabotage this new agreement as it was in 2012 [...]
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26 2015 14:38 utc | 46
@ Oui | Dec 26, 2015 9:15:39 AM | 41
"It's all quite logical."
I failed to understand a "logic" of yours. If you do not mind to clarify for me?
In peacetime leadership is of utter importance from a family to a head of state, in wartime it is more so. But any death of individuals is quite unimportant in a context of political forces that's are behind intercine conflict. Military commander by definition must serves to politician and ruling establishment. Otherwise they will find themselves "under six feet...".
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 14:56 utc | 47
@Grieved@19
This statement from b: "That the meeting could be targeted is great success for the Syrian and Russian intelligence."
If this perspective is true, then it speaks volumes about the "eyes on the ground" of the alliance forces. Eyes first, boots second.
I'll take this as a Christmas gift. Thanks!
Syrians are claiming loudly the killing of Allouch was their operation, from intel to airstrike.
General Command: Zahran Allouch Killed in Syrian, Not Russian, Airstrikes
TEHRAN (FNA)- Jeish al-Islam Commander Zahran Allouch was killed in Syrian airstrikes on the terrorist group's command center in Eastern Ghouta, Army Spokesman Ali Mahyoub announced correcting earlier reports that the terrorist commander has been killed in Russian air raids.The announcement came after early reports said that Allouch who was also a senior member of a coalition of the main anti-Assad militant groups in Syria had been killed in the Russian fighter jets' airstrikes on a meeting of terrorist leaders in Al-Marj in Eastern Ghouta [...]
Allouch Hunted through Inside Operation
TEHRAN (FNA)- Sources disclosed on Saturday that the operation for hunting Jeish al-Islam commander Zahran Allouch was the result of an inside job.On Friday, the notorious commander of Jeish al-Islam, Zahran Allouch, was confirmed dead after the Syrian fighter jets conducted a powerful airstrike in Eastern Ghouta in Damascus countryside, killing the notorious terrorist leader and several other militant commanders in the attack.
"The Syrian Air Force Intelligence was behind the attack which killed Zahran Allouch and several of his deputies," the sources said.
"One of the intelligence officers that infiltrated Allouch’s network had revealed to the air force the precise location of the militant commanders' meeting that took place in Eastern Ghouta, and this ultimately led to the death of Zahran Allouch and his comrades," the sources said.
"This is not the first time that the Syrian Air Force Intelligence Unit has carried out a spying operation; however, this is by far one of their largest operations during this war," the sources said [...]
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26 2015 15:02 utc | 48
Are we sure about this being decisive?We have been playing whackamole for years,and there's always another to take his place.
Drain the swamp of the causes of terror,and it will subside.
Posted by: dahoit | Dec 26 2015 15:05 utc | 49
"Jaish al-Islam was supposed to provide safe passage through areas east of Damascus for the buses heading to Raqa," IS's Syria bastion, the source said by phone.
"About 1,200 people were supposed to leave today (Saturday), but the death of Zahran Alloush means we are back to square one," he said.
He said buses that were standing by to transfer the evacuees left empty and "the plan was on hold until Jaish al-Islam reorganises itself".
Another source close to the negotiations said there was a "delay" in implementing the deal but that it was "still in place".
http://news.yahoo.com/syria-rebel-chief-zahran-alloush-killed-monitor-opposition-163954620.html
Posted by: Les | Dec 26 2015 15:20 utc | 50
There are conflicting reports regarding the course of events. Some say that there was an Israeli airstrike on the residential area, while other describe the incident as terrorist mortar shelling.Reuters initially cited Syrian state TV as saying that several people had been injured, after rockets launched by “terrorist groups” hit a building in the Jaramana district of Damascus.
Hezbollah has not immediately confirmed whether the Lebanese Druze Kuntar (also spelled as Quntar), who is one of the most hated militant leaders in Israel, was killed or injured in the bombing, or if he was at the site at all.
So we have three versions of the same event!
That building (what we have been shown) rather look as if someone planted car-bomb in front of it or somewhere inside. But given there is numerous buildings like that in Jaramana we only can assume what had happened....
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 15:20 utc | 51
@ 38 fast freddy
I agree with you, very strange column from CGR
I like more:
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/12/21/donald-trump-an-evaluation-paul-craig-roberts/
He mentions US-murders of journalists.
But he misses the murder of:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namir_Noor-Eldeen
Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 26 2015 15:23 utc | 52
@49 The Syrian "opposition" is a foreign backed and staffed collection of mercenaries. Since its not an organic uprising, there might not be people ready to take over. Even now his lackeys are likely arguing over how their checks will be delivered and whether they should try to skip town in case their backers get cold feet. They can always audition for private security on a billionaire's island.
The Syria "opposition" is radically different than the opposition faced by the U.S. because the opposition is the invading force. Take the U.S., how many guys died in Iraq before the populace died of the occupation? 3,500 volunteers, not draftees or conscripts. Imagine if the Iraqi or Afghanistan opposition managed to snag a few generals or take down jets.
Posted by: NotTimothyGeithner | Dec 26 2015 15:57 utc | 54
At somebody, you have an odd way of posting a link that doesn't at all prove your original point (or is even related to it,) that being Samir Kuntar was murdered either directly or indirectly by Hizbullah because he was about to open a front against Israel and Hizbullah doesn't have time for that right now. Your "evidence" is that the German media suggests it and the German media is an outlet for the BND. When I disagree you post a Sputnik link saying that the FSA(!?!?!) denies having killed him.
OK, I agree. I seriously doubt the FSA either killed him or could have known about his location to snitch on him. However, my original objection to your "Hizbullah did it" theory remains unchanged.
Posted by: Lysander | Dec 26 2015 16:06 utc | 55
Posted by: Oui | Dec 26, 2015 9:15:39 AM | 41
Israel cannot have it both ways - the loyalty of the Druze and the support of Al Nusra.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 16:07 utc | 56
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26, 2015 10:20:46 AM | 51
If the account is true that only 9 people were killed or injured then it must have been a late night meeting in the top floor of an office building.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 16:12 utc | 57
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26, 2015 9:38:54 AM | 46
"Raqqa will have to be worked out within the legal framework established by UN Resolution 2254, and previous ones. There are two articles on UN R2254 worth to read, from which you can extract your own conclusions as to the future of Raqqa and other areas/towns in Syria."
It would be nice if anybody actually went through the UN to solve conflicts like this. Remember Kofi Anan going to Damascus and Assad offering dialogue. The fact is that the UN is being used as a mediator now that the Jihadis and their backers are losing on the ground.
Besides, ask the Serbs about UN resolutions.....and whether the US or their western allies respect them. The UN is also rather irrelevant. This conflict will be resolved when it is acknowledged that it is a war for economic resources with a touch of geo-strategic brinkmanship. If only it was about ideological and sectarian differences....In the meantime..the Jihadis must be mercilessly eliminated to force the US/Turkey/Saudi/Qatar to the table for real. And what's up with the porous Turkish border? When will that be addressed?
Posted by: Burning Spear | Dec 26 2015 16:14 utc | 58
Posted by: Lysander | Dec 26, 2015 11:06:41 AM | 55
I did not mean to say "Hezbollah did it". The Sputnik link points out via FSA quote that Jaramaya is Syrian government "secret service" controlled.
All this does not mean Israel did not do it. But the person tracking Kuntar might not have been paid by Israel.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 16:35 utc | 59
@Lysander@55
At somebody, you have an odd way of posting a link that doesn't at all prove your original point (or is even related to it,) that being Samir Kuntar was murdered either directly or indirectly by Hizbullah because he was about to open a front against Israel and Hizbullah doesn't have time for that right now. Your "evidence" is that the German media suggests it and the German media is an outlet for the BND. When I disagree you post a Sputnik link saying that the FSA(!?!?!) denies having killed him.
OK, I agree. I seriously doubt the FSA either killed him or could have known about his location to snitch on him. However, my original objection to your "Hizbullah did it" theory remains unchanged.
I was going to point out the same contradictions, thanks for posting about it. It looks like somebody is not making sense at all. The Sputnik piece is not "spreading rumors," it is only delivering the news about an FSA comunique, no more, no less, which actually clarify the death of Quntar came from outside sources, was not an internal job.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26 2015 16:54 utc | 60
@Lysander@55
At somebody, you have an odd way of posting a link that doesn't at all prove your original point (or is even related to it,) that being Samir Kuntar was murdered either directly or indirectly by Hizbullah because he was about to open a front against Israel and Hizbullah doesn't have time for that right now. Your "evidence" is that the German media suggests it and the German media is an outlet for the BND. When I disagree you post a Sputnik link saying that the FSA(!?!?!) denies having killed him.
OK, I agree. I seriously doubt the FSA either killed him or could have known about his location to snitch on him. However, my original objection to your "Hizbullah did it" theory remains unchanged.
I was going to point out the same contradictions, thanks for posting about it. It looks like somebody is not making sense at all. The Sputnik piece is not "spreading rumors," it is only delivering the news about an FSA comunique, no more, no less, which actually clarify the death of Quntar came from outside sources, was not an internal job.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26 2015 16:54 utc | 61
@Burning Spear@58
Conveniently, you quoted me excluding the sentence that would have contradicted your line of posting in order to make your point. I stated loud and clear it would be "the state of the battleground" that will frame any peace negotiations, that UN resolutions and other documents will be used as a reference only, I didn't say the UN can provide any solution to this conflict, and you don't need to illustrate me about the UN flaws. Clearly, you failed to read the links I posted, attacked my comments baselessly, and didn't add anything to the debate. What's your point?
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26 2015 17:18 utc | 63
Somebody@40 posted a link to a Sputnik article stating the Pentagon refuses to share Intel about IS with the Russians, unless they change their stance on removing Assad. That means never. Extrapolating tthe US refusal, we could safely assume if they reject sharing Intel abou IS, why would they agree to share Intel about "the moderates" the US sponsor?
This information breaks the argument about the "quid pro quo" Allouch/ Quntar, or the possibility Allouch was offered to the 4+1 as a sacrificial lamb for ulterior reasons. The Syrians are saying it was their inside job from beginning to end, denying it was the Russians, and cutting off any other speculation about the context of Allouch killing.
https://www.rt.com/news/327120-pentagon-moscow-isis-intelligence/
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26 2015 17:47 utc | 64
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26, 2015 12:47:11 PM | 64
Anyway, Kuntar did not manage to draw Israel into Syria, so now ISIS Bagdadi is trying (he is also threatening Saudi Arabia).
Let's see how good Russian-Israeli relations turn out to be.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 18:22 utc | 65
Russia and US agree on who they consider terrorist.
Posted by: somebody | Dec 26 2015 18:34 utc | 66
As the latest refusal to share intel illustrates, the Outlaw US Empire's policy vacillates on an almost daily basis. I believe this reflects infighting between differing factions and isn't only related to Russia's intervention in Syria, but to the larger goal to attain Full Spectrum Dominance: The military knows its limitations now that it faces an allied Russia and China, and pragmatically knows that policy goal is now nullified, while the CIA thinks it can still attain the policy goal if allowed to escalate its terrorism program into Central Asia. There are many other contributing factors, but I think the neocon diehards are incapable of giving in to reason and will only concede when totally defeated. In that regard, Iraq becomes very important as it struggles to regain its sovereignty--first over Daesh and the US military, then over the Kurds and the Turks.
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 26 2015 18:45 utc | 67
@Lone Wolf
Ah, the Intelligence Community! When the statement reads the Pentagon doesn't exchange operational intelligence with the Russians, who and wat does that cover precisely?
The IC consists of 17 members (also called elements), most of which are offices or bureaus within federal executive departments. The IC is led by the Director of National Intelligence.
The global intelligence agencies serve only their self-interest and aren't bothered by oversight or politics of US Congress or the executive. The fog of war, or this assassination makes clear it was a high-value target and no one is coming forward to provide any real evidence.
○ Correspondent Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai
The evacuation of around 5000 #ISIS &
#JN fighters+families from al Qadam
and Yarmouk was delayed till today
(nothing 2do w/ Allouch death)+
#Raqqa imposed a condition that "all
fighters should declare Bay'aa to #ISIS".
Dispute among fighters 2divide trip btwn
#Idlib & #Raqqa".
FWIW, I don't think PCR has exactly "gone off" the rails in the referenced Christmas column. I think he runs on parallel tracks and switches between them; to paraphrase Yogi Berra, when PCR comes to a fork in the road he takes it.
I first became aware of him a couple of years back, and to me he's truly an enigma; to beg the question a bit, there seems to be a Jekyll/Hyde split in his opinions. This is begging the question insofar as I also can't relate to his cultural views, so I'm calling the PCR who wrote the Christmas column the "Mr. Hyde" persona.
He dissects and critiques the decadent imperialist US government on geopolitical and economics matters with the fury and skill of a ninja warrior, and the inspired righteousness of an Old Testament prophet. Or perhaps a modern-day Frederick Douglass, incongruous though that comparison may seem. I think it's fair to say that despite his Establishment background, his critiques in these areas are radical and trenchant.
But then there's the "Hyde" side, with profound contradictions that I haven't been able to reconcile rationally: there's his benevolent, sanitized view of Ronald Reagan and his administration. It's one thing to retrospectively point out positives that were ignored or discounted by the "evil" that executive administrations do; for instance, it's now commonplace to note that even War Criminal Richard M. Nixon favored some domestic policies that are far less reactionary and oppressive than his successors.
But PCR seems to be in denial about the obvious truth that all of the predatory and pathological overclass/bankster attitudes and policies he rightly condemns and reviles were incubated, if not born, during Reagan's "Morning in America". He somehow skips over the fact that little matters like the fraudulent pernicious "trickle-down" economic policies, and aggressive anti-labor union-busting, gratuitous militarism, etc. were load-bearing pillars supporting that administration.
Put another way, during the Reagan administration, the USDA Food and Nutrition Service infamously proposed regulations classifying ketchup as a "vegetable". I don't know if PCR ever addressed this contretemps. But I'm absolutely positive that if the Obama or Dubya Bush maladministrations did something like this, PCR would be all over it-- rightly spitting contempt at the soulless bureaucrats involved, and even lambasting the passive and complacent population of "dumbasses" for going along with it.
It's as if PCR were out of the room, or absent on the days that the Reagan regime got up to all of this chicanery.
Likewise, he credits Reagan for peacefully ending the Cold War, and even successfully pursuing nuclear disarmament, without any acknowledgement of the Manichean "Evil Empire" rhetoric that was the precursor to the "Global War on Terror", or the invasion of Panama.
More to the point, on the cultural side PCR is very much the social conservative and traditionalist. Here, he's only "radical" in the sense of maintaining a radical nostalgia for traditional civic myths. PCR obviously fully buys into the fantasy notion that America really is an exceptional nation, a sort of firstborn child of the Enlightenment.
"Mr. Hyde" is a conservative capitalist with a reformist mind-set; he "believes in" capitalism and hierarchy as long as they're done right, and espouses so-called "traditional Judeo-Christian" values. Unlike politicians and other opportunists, he's no demagogue; he's more like Archie Bunker (or Bill O'Reilly) with working pre-frontal lobes.
I certainly can't fathom how his "Dr. Jekyll" persona can sustain or reconcile these massive internal contradictions and still produce high-quality analysis and opinion. For better or worse, I continue to admire PCR's "Dr. Jekyll" work, and compassionately put up with his "Mr. Hyde" episodes as if he were a beloved uncle who has irrational "spells" once in a while. ;)
Posted by: Ort | Dec 26 2015 19:23 utc | 71
○ Correspondent Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai
Unlike so many western analysts, #ISIS
Baghdadi confesses "the loss of many
lands", asking his followers to have
patience & seek martyrdom.
Killing Zahran Allouch indicates the work
of a combination of HUMINT and SIGINT
by #Damascus ops room (incl #Russia
#Iran #Hezbollah).
Somebody @40
That doesn't refute Hersh. That is exactly in-line with what Hersh wrote: that Obama now has a compliant Pentagon.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 26 2015 19:30 utc | 73
Russia's security chief says identified groups behind plane explosion in Egypt | Reuters |Alexander Bortnikov, head of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), said Russia had identified groups behind the explosion of a Russian plane in Egypt.
Putin responded by saying the incident was one of the bloodiest acts in modern Russian history and ordered the Russian air force to intensify its air strikes in Syria in response.
"It (our campaign) must be intensified in such a way that the criminals understand that retribution is inevitable," said Putin.
Ordering the country's secret service to hunt down those responsible for blowing up the plane, he said the effort to bring them to justice should be exhaustive.
"We will search for them everywhere wherever they are hiding. We will find them anywhere on the planet and punish them," Putin said.
Posted by: Lysander | Dec 26, 2015 11:06:41 AM | 55
Those suggestion that somehow Syrian government or the Russians have traded Ghantar(Kuntar) for the takfiri Alosh are spreading an Israeli propaganda hoping to open a divide/ rift between Syrian/ Russian governments and Hezbollah/ Iran. Nice try but really didn't work. Through in the kitchen sink who knows it may work. Stupid try.
Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 26 2015 20:30 utc | 75
@70 They may be having trouble finding people to drive the buses. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near them.
Posted by: dh | Dec 26 2015 21:02 utc | 76
@Oui@68
Ah, the Intelligence Community! When the statement reads the Pentagon doesn't exchange operational intelligence with the Russians, who and wat does that cover precisely?
The IC consists of 17 members (also called elements), most of which are offices or bureaus within federal executive departments. The IC is led by the Director of National Intelligence.
The global intelligence agencies serve only their self-interest and aren't bothered by oversight or politics of US Congress or the executive. The fog of war, or this assassination makes clear it was a high-value target and no one is coming forward to provide any real evidence.
Good enough. Once you have figured out which of the alphabet soup intel organizations is sharing info with the Russians, you can scoop the follow-up to Sy Hersh's "Military to Military" here at MoA, or, you can contact him at http://www.lrb.co.uk/
Hope their e-mail is encrypted, and yours too. Good luck.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26 2015 21:09 utc | 77
looks like the guy who replaced alloush has also been knocked off...
Posted by: james | Dec 26 2015 21:25 utc | 78
Neretva'43@4 & pmr9@5
Unfortunate that so little attention has been paid to this aspect of Zahran Alloush's 'elimination'. It doesn't matter who pulled the trigger - they all wanted him dead. He was no longer useful to ZATO and the GCC and was a liability for all the governments and individuals he could rat out. The manner in which all the sides reported this event without any details just reeks of front-running any speculation on ulterior motives.
Alloush knew something about the Ghouta false flag - whether he was responsible for or otherwise orchestrated parts of it are irrelevant. He was involved somehow and could name names. Now we'll never know - how convenient for certain parties.
Syrian Air Strike Exterminates Commander Behind 2013 Chemical Weapons Attack in Ghouta
Christof Lehmann (nsnbc) : Zahran Alloush, the commander of the Jaysh al-Islam alliance was killed in a Damascus suburb. August 21, 2013 the Saudi intelligence asset Alloush was commanding Liwa-al-Islam when he gave the order to launch the chemical weapons attack against the East Ghouta suburb of Damascus. Zahran Alloush has been on the payroll of Saudi intelligence since the 1980s.
We can only guess at the nature of that involvement. That knowledge could have (and undoubtedly would have) been used for leverage for just about anything by Alloush. He may already have started to use threats of disclosure to arrange the now-uncertain evacuation of his fellow head-choppers and their families.
If Syria or Russia pulled the trigger, it was because Saudi, Israeli or Turkish intel ratted him out and told them where to strike. Saudi intel could just as easily have car-bombed him - he was a dead man either way. Every other head-chopper errand-boy that knows anything important will be summarily executed in the coming weeks by the same governments that backed them. Time to clean up any loose ends in their failed attempt to overthrow Assad. The lesser minions will be sent off to their certain deaths at places like Raqqa - the last ZATO/GCC hope for the seat of a negotiated Sunnistan.
The only thing worse than being attacked by ZATO and the GCC is to actually be on their side when their evil schemes come off the rails. The intel agencies have a solid record of executing their scorched-earth policy for 'friends' that know too much. The trouble is that they all have a slightly different view of what particular individuals are dangerous. Once they each start collecting their own high-level intel hostages, the Empire of Chaos will fall.
Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 26 2015 21:47 utc | 79
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 26, 2015 12:18:40 PM | 63
"What's your point?"
RE:
First of all, I am sorry that you feel "attacked". As for, not adding anything to the debate, that is subjective.
My point is that the UN is not something to be quoted as having any significance in the resolution of this conflict.. Why in the world even bring the UN into it at this point? You ask us to read this meaningless UN dribble and accuse others of not contributing to the debate?
My point is clear. It is too late for the UN. And the washington amateur diplomats and professional warmakers can say goodbye to their UN proxy having any influence in Syria. My point is that only a total elimination of Jihadis is going to bring any settlement to the Syria/Iraq crisis.
I didn't have an argument with you, I only stated the impotence of the UN. Why so easily offended?
Posted by: Burning Spear | Dec 26 2015 21:50 utc | 80
interesting developments... The Kurds Seize Tishreen Dam - TTG @ ssr's blog.
Posted by: james | Dec 26 2015 22:01 utc | 81
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4741879,00.html
Recently, Hezbollah officials began to reject his independent activities that were not to their liking. They feared Kuntar would get them involved in a confrontation with Israel by carrying out an attack in the Golan Heights. A successful attack and Israeli intervention would hurt the interests of the Syrian regime, those of Hezbollah, and of course Iran's strategic interests.
Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and the Russians have no interest in a confrontation with Israel now, and certainly not a confrontation ignited by a "freelancer" such as Kuntar, driven by his hostility to Israel.
This suggests that Kuntar was eliminated because he was considered a ticking bomb by more than one entity in the Middle East. However, there are those who believe that Hezbollah or Iran may try to carry out a revenge attack.
What is interesting is that the Syrian regime refuses to lay the responsibility for the incident on Israel and its media is barely covering Kuntar's killing. The reason is probably that the Syrian regime does not want to be in a situation in which it is forced to respond against Israel.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 22:20 utc | 82
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4742059,00.html
Kuntar - with all the symbolism and negative feelings behind this murderer's name - is no Imad Mughniyah. While he has been defined by the American administration as an international terrorist, compared to the Hezbollah "chief of staff" who was assassinated in Damascus in 2008, he is a small fry in the regional sea of terror.
There had to be a pretty exceptional reason for someone to take the risk, waste the credit they were given to operate in Syria and carry out a targeted assassination of this man in the Damascus suburbs. The only reason that could justify his assassination in the Syrian capital - which is protected by the Russian air defense umbrella with its S-400 missiles and detection radar that covers large parts of the State of Israel - is "concrete solid" intelligence information about a terror attack which is about to be executed immediately.
In a sane security policy, revenge is not an acceptable reason for Kuntar's assassination. If Israel wanted to assassinate Kuntar in order to take revenge, in order to signal to the Iranians and to Hezbollah or in order to convey to security prisoners the message that returning to terror after being released in a prisoner exchange deal will claim a deadly price - it had dozens of opportunities to do so since he was released from Israeli prison in 2008.
Whether Israel is behind the assassination or not, the defense minister must ask his intelligence people before every operation in Syria whether it crosses Hezbollah's red lines and would require the organization to respond, possibly leading to a deterioration on the northern front. This is a key question, as the Israeli interest is that Hezbollah will keep bleeding in Syria for many years and grow weaker without any Israeli involvement.
Hezbollah's conduct up to now reveals that as long as the organization's weapons are being targeted on Syrian soil, it is accepting these attacks as part of the rules of the game. On the other hand, when Jihad Mughniyeh was assassinated, we almost got caught in a military conflict in the north.
Kuntar's status in Hezbollah, however, is entirely different. While he has become a symbol of the ongoing struggle of security prisoners released from Israeli jail, a sort of popular hero, Hezbollah stopped protecting him about a year ago. Nonetheless, Kuntar continued his activity independently under the guidance of Revolutionary Guards officers in Damascus.
But Hezbollah is not the only one who turned its back on Kuntar. The Damascus regime saw his ongoing activity in Syria as a danger to President Bashar Assad's interests, as it may have dragged Israel into a direct conflict against Syria. The fact that both the Syrians and Hezbollah disagreed with Kuntar's activity could serve as a restraining factor today.
The Russian presence in Syria can also be seen as a restraining factor, which may cause Hezbollah to moderate its response. Entering a conflict with Israel doesn’t serve the Russian interest in Syria. If Kuntar was indeed assassinated by Israel, as the Syrians and Lebanese claim, then the Russians - thanks to their technological abilities - were aware of this operation in real time. And the fact is that Moscow is keeping quiet, just like it ignored three similar incidents of attacks in Syria which were attributed to Israel.
Samir Kuntar was apparently under extremely tight surveillance, otherwise his targeted assassination could not have been carried out with such impressive success. Such information, which makes it possible to find his exact location and fire missiles towards him when there are no innocent civilians around, wasn't generated by chance. It's part of the meticulous work of a very professional intelligence.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 22:31 utc | 83
@Paveway IV #78
I suspect something similar happened to Mozgovoi and a couple other commanders in Lugansk People's Republic. They were all causing political problems for the LPR government and shortly ended up dead.
Posted by: Thirdeye | Dec 26 2015 22:45 utc | 84
Hate to say but their articles are very sane and in line what I was thinking all the time.
Only the method of execution is what I disagree with, obviously an explosive is planted inside the building or next to it.
http://www.topviralshare.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2482313f0ca743f78803305f7d0d13bf_18.jpg
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 22:46 utc | 85
The very same "forces" killed also Imad Mughniyah. Intuitively, I knew this from day one.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 22:51 utc | 86
"If Syria or Russia pulled the trigger [at Allush], it was because Saudi, Israeli or Turkish intel ratted him out and told them where to strike."
It is a speculation, at best. That there are officers ("commanders") among the rebels who are Syrian intelligence agents is known from celebrations of the return of some of them to SAA. And the same must be true on the level of "normal fighters", as rebels absorbed a number of defectors, some defections were staged. As far as Saudis and Turks disposing of "inconvenient" commanders, they provide money and weapons, so they have more direct ways to exercise influence.
My impression is that the disagreements among taqfiris lead to assassinations without resorting to ratting to the government forces. Whatever other speculative possibilities may exist, Syrian intelligence from their human assets, with possible assist from Russian drones, is most probable explanation.
I am also not sure if this killing is actually decisive. Replacement of the leadership is quite usual in insurgence movements and not a big game changer, as opposed to factors like emergence or end of outside support.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 26 2015 22:58 utc | 87
this video, allegedly, had recorded last moments of Zharan Alloush's life.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1348505378508341&id=345180182174204
Interestingly it is posted on FB, couldn't see it anywhere else.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 23:24 utc | 88
Those from the video were so good and give us coordinates of that attack. Latitude and Longitude corresponds to Al Ghouta (district 1).
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.526084&lon=36.403713&z=14&m=b&search=syria
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 23:42 utc | 89
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.527193&lon=36.404212&z=19&m=b&search=syria
Now this is interesting. "Somebody" was quick and taken care to mark the place and the house of Alloush killing.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 23:47 utc | 90
in the left corner of video says IRIS. So I searched that word and found this:
http://www.amazon.com/3DRobotics-3DR0171-3DR-IRIS-Quadcopter/dp/B00NWXY076
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 26 2015 23:55 utc | 91
@Burning Spear@79
My point is that the UN is not something to be quoted as having any significance in the resolution of this conflict.. Why in the world even bring the UN into it at this point? You ask us to read this meaningless UN dribble and accuse others of not contributing to the debate?
My point is clear. It is too late for the UN. And the washington amateur diplomats and professional warmakers can say goodbye to their UN proxy having any influence in Syria. My point is that only a total elimination of Jihadis is going to bring any settlement to the Syria/Iraq crisis.
You should relay your message to stupid Putin who makes an effort at bringing the UN in as a legal force behind Russia's S-400s. Your "total elimination" program is unrealistic, to say the least, a better term is delusional. Evidently you haven't the slightest idea about insurgency/CI wars, and never learned the basic principle that war is the continuation of politics by other means.
Waste of time. Margaritas ante porcos.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 27 2015 0:27 utc | 92
@Neretva'43 - #87
First comment under video ...
Abu Howrah
To hell. Delivered tightly. On this strike. We congratulate the Syrian people to kill this client and the traitor ..
ابو حوراء
الى جهنم وبئس المصير . سلمت اياديكم . على هذه الضربه . ونهنئ الشعب السوري على قتل هذا العميل والخائن ..
[Others compare Alloush as a traitor to Syrian people and comparison with death of Hariri in 2005]
Neretva'43@90
I suspect the display "IRIS OPT" stands for the camera iris set for 'optimal'. The next line is "FOV 4.0°" for field of view of four degrees (it changes later). The "HOLD COOR" is a UAV loiter mode for hold coordinates (of target).
The Iris Quadcopter display should be 1) in color and 2) looks different than what is shown on facebook. The poor resolution of the Facebook video looks like it could be from a mil UAV, but zoomed-in external video of the display screen to hide other numbers around the periphery that could identify the drone type or origin.
Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 27 2015 0:48 utc | 94
@ Lone Wolf #91 - I agree totally that the UN is a critical piece of the arithmetic throughout all of the adventures we see on the surface. If there's one thing Putin's team and Russian skill have done in recent years, it is to show that diplomacy is an equal weapon with the actions of soldiers when it comes to fighting wars.
The UN may be the last global institution susceptible to reform, although even the IMF may prove malleable over the years. We shall see. It's obvious that if Russia and China were to determine that the UN was a lost cause, they would in the same instant begin to shift their efforts elsewhere. But replacing the UN would be a huge task, while influencing it seems completely productive at present.
I expect Russia over the next few years to continue to lace the world with renewed laws and affirmations of the rule of law. The US will ignore, and the cynics will sneer - for a time. The day will come, around 2020, when Russian military might is where it aims to be. On that day, Putin will have both the good argument AND the Smith & Wesson that the old saw says makes for the best persuasion. And finally the cynics and those currently in despair will get it.
Russia is not trying to win wars. Russia is building peace. It's a significantly different effort, and it even looks different. It fools a lot of people who look for explosions as the indication that things are moving. I love a good explosion myself. But above all I admire the unparalleled diplomacy we're seeing nowadays. Those old Taoists, the Chinese, must surely admire it too. Who knew that something so silent and well dressed could move mountains?
Posted by: Grieved | Dec 27 2015 0:52 utc | 95
Thank you, I wish I knew Arabic.
The title is obviously from Al Mayadeen which is described "as pan-Arab Tv news" channel. It might be.
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 27 2015 1:00 utc | 96
@ PavewayIV | Dec 26, 2015 7:48:24 PM | 93
Thank you for that. I was curious what all that means. I remember that I saw the clip from Ukraine's war guys with this "toy".
Also, I saw somewhere, today, the Russian soldiers in Syria with this case http://www.amazon.com/3DRobotics-XB-3DR-Iris-W-3DR-IRIS-Case/dp/B00OJFW32U/ref=pd_sim_421_3?ie=UTF8&dpID=51tDWGLOz2L&dpSrc=sims&preST=_AC_UL160_SR160%2C160_&refRID=13X4MVMGERJPK1EK3Q8X
and Panasonic Thoughbook. I did not pay attention until now how it is guided and controlled? I thought it has own RC transmitter/receiver but now I am puzzled by Toughbook there.
Are you saying it can not be Amazon's toy?
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 27 2015 1:18 utc | 97
Intuitively, I knew this from day one.
That's exactly what we've been lacking here at MoA, someone with a crystal ball.
Interestingly it is posted on FB, couldn't see it anywhere else.
Seek and you will find. Not just one version of the video, but two, one in HD on a link to FB.
Zahran Alloush, Leader of Jaish Al-Islam, Killed By Syrian Airforce (VIDEO)
The video below shows the aerial view of the strike:(Higher quality version here)
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 27 2015 1:20 utc | 98
Apparently the Syrian opposition have asked for the Saudis to be excluded from talks. Which I thought odd so looked into it further.
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151226/1032347614/syria-talks-saudi-arabia.html
figures have been meeting in Kazakhstan with the French Foreign Minister. I didnt see these meetings mentioned anywhere? I can't find a list of attendees as the only reports on the meetings are from some Kazakh media site article which doesnt say except for the name of Randa Kassis.
http://astanatimes.com/2015/10/representatives-of-syrian-opposition-meet-in-astana/
According to her website Kassis is a 'Franco Syrian politician' whatever that is, who was once an SNC member but left because of their assiciation with islamists. She also claims to have 'played a part in the Tunisian revolution'.
On the basis of her Tunisia involvement and SNC membership I get the impression she is just another NED type 'pro democracy' shitster, but one who at least considers that using AQ isnt going to help force a democracy onto a country.
Im curious as to who was at these Astana meetings and if they have any significance at all. I would have doubted they meant anything but the French FM is involved so they consider them to have some degree of importance at least.
Posted by: Bob | Dec 27 2015 1:31 utc | 99
Ok Lone Wolf
I think this is the same video that HD one is just in smaller frame, so to say, so there is appearance of better resolution.
Now thinking about the drone used to film this strike, whether this is military or toy both are powered by lithium-ion battery. Because of that they are short range drones. How short? I do not know, but I believe short enough that those who control it must be around there.
If, and only if this above assumption is a true, how come that those people were on the right place at right time?
Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 27 2015 1:38 utc | 100
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Great news especially for Yarmouk. Since last April the situation there became even more critical when ISIS took control of large parts of the besieged Palestinian refugee camp according to witnesses. Let's hope for a better future for these people there.
Posted by: nmb | Dec 25 2015 20:25 utc | 1