News & views (not fitting in other threads) …
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November 24, 2015
Open Thread 2015-44
News & views (not fitting in other threads) …
Comments
the west – turkey in particular – want to escalate here.. i guess they are unhappy with isis being bombed.. says a lot about turkeys leadership skills.. Posted by: james | Nov 24 2015 19:40 utc | 2 Sergey Rudskoy, a top official with the Russian General Staff, condemned the attack on the Russian bomber in Syrian airspace by a Turkish fighter jet as “a severe violation of international law”. He stressed that the Su-24 was downed over the Syrian territory. The crash site was four kilometers away from the Turkish border, he said. Posted by: harry law | Nov 24 2015 19:53 utc | 3 One of the latest propaganda videos regarding refugees sent to me via email from a very republican friend. Even if partially true, who thinks a bunch of very angry arabs and africans could easily assimilate into european culture. Is the refugee issue an “unintended” outcome of the oil/Israeli/Saudi wars, “or what”? Short term thinking? Planned destruction? Posted by: shadyl | Nov 24 2015 19:58 utc | 4 On the previous post I called for Obama’s impeachment over his statement at the joint press conference with Hollande. There is not yet a complete transcript available on this that I could find. Here is the AP version, which I can verify to be something like what I heard Obama say in the excerpt on RT.com. Posted by: juliania | Nov 24 2015 20:13 utc | 5 shadyl @4 Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 24 2015 20:19 utc | 6 Turkey will lose its control over the Kurdish territory, which has long been under the Turkish flag! Not surprisingly, NATO using Russian focus on Syria to escalate tensions in Ukraine. Cutting off power to Crimea just the latest manifestation of this. If Russia does not make Ukraine pay a price , more provocations are inevitable. Posted by: Andoheb | Nov 24 2015 20:41 utc | 8 Update: Posted by: Harry | Nov 24 2015 20:45 utc | 9 Russia will now bring in more HW and target the Turkmen at the syrian border, and will shoot down any Turkish plane that attempts to intervene. I think puppet Erdogan made a terrible move, that will hasten Turkey’s failure in Syria Posted by: bbbb | Nov 24 2015 20:46 utc | 11 BTW how many more ‘refugees’ could Turkey potentially dump on Europe? Posted by: bbbb | Nov 24 2015 21:04 utc | 12 Remember when in 2012 Syria shot down Turkey’s spy jet when it entered its air space? Posted by: Harry | Nov 24 2015 21:12 utc | 13 WWIII is already under way. It is just a matter of escalation and escalation is happening at a rapid pace. Posted by: CarlD | Nov 24 2015 21:16 utc | 14 Can we have less of the hyperbole about world war 3 Posted by: James lake | Nov 24 2015 21:30 utc | 15 the FSB must be compiling a rather nondeferential hitlist. Posted by: john | Nov 24 2015 21:34 utc | 16 This thing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_AEW%26C#/media/File:Boeing_737_AEW%26C_MESA_Peace_Eagle.jpg Posted by: Neretva’43 | Nov 24 2015 21:40 utc | 17 Obama on downing of Russian plane: “Turkey like every country has a right to defend its territory & its air space.” Could the disputed violations of Turkish territory be becaust turkey unilaterally moved its border 5 miles south. Posted by: harry law | Nov 24 2015 22:20 utc | 20 I think Russia has pretty much ignored Turkey’s claimed extended airspace from the start, harry law. That was only to threaten Assad and justify Turkey shooting at his jets. Posted by: PavewayIV | Nov 24 2015 23:00 utc | 21 Thank you everyone for interesting info and insightful commentary. Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 24 2015 23:08 utc | 22 Now Russia will NEVER allow Assad to step down. Turkey has made a huge mistake. Putin can and will make Erdogan pay a steep price for this. The man was on thin ice before, the ice has just cracked. Posted by: Fernando | Nov 24 2015 23:19 utc | 23 It’s about time Russia leaked/ published some maps showing which Turkish cities/ military installations would be blown to bits by Russian nukes in the event of a new Russo-Turkish War. I’ve been blathering on the other thread. Considering the opposing interests of the two parties, would someone provide a logical justification for a Russian warplane to breach Turkish airspace? Posted by: IhaveLittleToAdd | Nov 24 2015 23:32 utc | 25 Even if no “logical justification” for russia violating turk airspace is forthcoming, clearly the Russians have their reasons for doing so, and clearly they think their reasons are “logical”. Posted by: Sukhoi | Nov 24 2015 23:40 utc | 26 IHaveLittleToAdd @25, Posted by: Jonathan | Nov 24 2015 23:41 utc | 27 My understanding is that Turkey claims a strip of territory just past the international boundary. If Putin is right that the plane was 1 km from the boundary, that would put it in that strip of territory. Posted by: lysias | Nov 24 2015 23:47 utc | 28 just to play along with this stupidity, lets say a russian plane actually went into turkey airspace – can the local bozos tell us the justification for shooting it down, or is this just par fa the course for the war party as presently represented by turkey? resolving this diplomatically would’ve been the first step if you were coming from a civilized place.. Posted by: james | Nov 24 2015 23:47 utc | 29 @27 Posted by: IHaveLittletoAdd | Nov 24 2015 23:48 utc | 31 @Sukhoi Posted by: Massinissa | Nov 24 2015 23:49 utc | 32 @25 Have you seen the map? That part of turkey was like a peninsula jutting into Syria. Posted by: Massinissa | Nov 24 2015 23:49 utc | 33 The F-16’s would have known at all times where the SU-24 was if they were being guided by an AWACS plane. U.S. AWACS planes, or at least one of them, is stationed at Incirlik Air Base. However, since the Turkish Air Force also had AWACS planes, it could have been a Turkish AWACS. Posted by: lysias | Nov 24 2015 23:50 utc | 34 @19 Posted by: Massinissa | Nov 24 2015 23:53 utc | 35 lets say a russian plane actually went into turkey airspace – can the [people obvious much smarter than james] tell us the justification for shooting it down.@ Posted by: Sukhoi | Nov 24 2015 23:55 utc | 36 Sukhoi @36:
They couldn’t show some restraint about a minor violation a day before scheduled talks with Lavrov? Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 25 2015 0:03 utc | 37 32 Posted by: Sukhoi | Nov 25 2015 0:05 utc | 38 37 Posted by: Sukhoi | Nov 25 2015 0:06 utc | 39 WikiLeaks @wikileaks 6h6 hours ago Posted by: bbbb | Nov 25 2015 0:07 utc | 40 Btw Posted by: Sukhoi | Nov 25 2015 0:13 utc | 41 PavewayIV at 21 — Posted by: rufus magister | Nov 25 2015 0:16 utc | 42 Sorry Posted by: Sukhoi | Nov 25 2015 0:19 utc | 43 @41 – keep hammering on that deflection dude.. it won’t do much for the fighters that Russia will target heavily now in order to secure the pocket Posted by: bbbb | Nov 25 2015 0:21 utc | 44 Yes indeedy, talking about the Turkish attitude toward airspace violations is clearly nothing but a deflection from talking about the consequences of a violation of turkish airspace Posted by: Sukhoi | Nov 25 2015 0:25 utc | 45 @38 Fascinating argument, did your lawyer suggest that defense or did you come up with it all yourself. I maintain that Turkey has made it clear that they are both volatile and uninterested in having their airspace violated by Russian warplanes. It’s not a defense to say that they usually do not attack intruding aircraft. It is their sovereign territory and they are free to treat unwelcome guests as they choose. None of this makes their action appropriate or palatable. I would advise Russian airplanes to avoid this mistake in the future and strongly advise people who value their safety to egress from Syrian areas populated by Turkmen. Stupid decisions do not go unpunished when one has chips on the table, I may be wrong but that is the whole point of acting with foresight. Posted by: IHaveLittleToAdd | Nov 25 2015 0:36 utc | 47 “Stupid decisions do not go unpunished when one has chips on the table, I may be wrong but that is the whole point of acting with foresight.” Posted by: paulmeli | Nov 25 2015 0:43 utc | 48 @46 Guest77 Posted by: IHaveLittletoAdd | Nov 25 2015 0:46 utc | 49 From another thread (a post by Bruno Marz): Posted by: From The Hague | Nov 25 2015 0:48 utc | 50 @48 Posted by: IHaveLittletoAdd | Nov 25 2015 0:57 utc | 51 Following that line that even a simple, short errant violation should result in military action and death, maybe China should sink the next US destroyer that intentionally and belligerently sails near the Chinese base in the South China Sea. Posted by: Sukhoi | Nov 25 2015 1:07 utc | 52 Paulmeli @ 48, I think you’re right. Plus Turkey routinely violates Greek airspace and the part of Cyprus that they are not yet occupying. Posted by: Penelope | Nov 25 2015 1:38 utc | 54 Turkey had unofficially encroached into a 5 kilometer buffer zone in Syria in the summer of 2012 treating it like its own airspace and territory. As the RuAF bombardment of the official Syria-Turkey border intensified last week, Turkey loudly protested against what it saw as Russian jets hitting Turkmen near the border just last Friday. Then Turkey AF declared that they will not make any difference in treating violations of “their” airspace regardless of aircraft flags. Turkey shots down a Su-24 RuAF ground attack jet well within Syrian airspace Oops!. This is like a Su-27 shotting down an A-10 warhog. Russia deploys its largest missile cruiser to the coast near the border. It is defended with an S-300 SAM battery equivalent on board and will cause a virtual no fly zone for Turkish planes. Furthermore, Russia will escort bomber raids with air to air fighter planes going forward. This is a Judo move. Putin can now arm the Kurds with impunity. Well armed and protected Kurds can destabilize and threaten Turkey’s territorial integrity. Opposition leader questions the Russian plane downing. Knowing the risks, Turkey’s Erdogan downplays the incident internally for domestic politics. Erdogan calls the opposition leader for private talks. But Turkey escalates it to convene NATO emergency meeting and the UNSC for rallying international support. NATO is split with some members even giving cold shoulder to Turkey. Analyzing the actions of the Turkish government, this act of bravado surely looks as desperation. Russia will play cool until it can safely repatriate thousands of Russians currently in Turkey like it did in Egypt. Turkey stands to lose lucrative tourism and trade with Russia as a minimum. Turkey government links to ISIS and ISIL will be publicly exposed. Expect a backlash from Europeans weary of paying extortion money to Turkey for not exporting its Syrian refugees. Posted by: Sun Tzu | Nov 25 2015 1:43 utc | 55 @bbbb@12 Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 25 2015 2:08 utc | 56 @54 Posted by: crone | Nov 25 2015 2:14 utc | 57 @From The Hague@50 Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 25 2015 2:16 utc | 58 It took the deaths of several Russian military people to finally expose to the world the fundamental fact that Turkey fully supports the terrorists who recently bombed a Russian airliner, made several bombing attacks in Lebanon, and attacked several targets in Paris, as the oil flows North and supplies go South into and out of Turkey–and in no way can Erdogan say he knows nothing about those activities. Turkey’s a member of NATO, so since turkey’s been supporting Daessh for 3+ years, NATO is also supplying its support as it cannot say it knows nothing–and that would certainly include the Outlaw US Empire: There cannot be any Sgt. Schultz Excuses Anymore!!! Those unwilling to see are those allied with Daesh and its sponsors. All are now subject to the newest UNSC Resolution and can expect to pay the price for their behavior. But will France really join with Russia and China in the UNSC? Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 25 2015 2:17 utc | 59 NATO wants to provoke Russia into a war with turkey for this reason as last chance to stop the allies advance in Syria, I don’t think Russia, Russia will fall for this. Posted by: kooshy | Nov 25 2015 2:31 utc | 61 @57 thanks 🙂 the laugh I got from your comment compensated for the dog shirt! Posted by: thirsty | Nov 25 2015 2:36 utc | 62 Paul Craig Roberts: Posted by: Penelope | Nov 25 2015 2:39 utc | 63 Relevant for MoA, every now and again: Posted by: ben | Nov 25 2015 2:44 utc | 64 bbbb @ 12 Posted by: Penelope | Nov 25 2015 2:45 utc | 65 @ 60 Any blockade of the straits can be “softened” with a barrage of conventional Iskander & Kalibr. Posted by: Sun Tzu | Nov 25 2015 2:46 utc | 66
Erdogan’s daughter runs a hospital for Da’esh wounded, Erdogan’s son fences Da’esh oil stolen from Syria, Obama & Oland defend Erdogan … could it be any more obvious just whose army Da’esh actually is? Posted by: jfl | Nov 25 2015 2:51 utc | 67 PavewayIV @ 21, Posted by: Penelope | Nov 25 2015 2:54 utc | 68 @Jackrabbit@37 Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 25 2015 2:55 utc | 69 @71 Based upon your reasoning abilities, please stay far away from any car traffic Posted by: bbbb | Nov 25 2015 3:09 utc | 70 @45 – The consequences are ALL that matter now, and Russia will likely respond at a time and place of its choosing. I guess until that time you can keep splitting hairs over who did what Posted by: bbbb | Nov 25 2015 3:11 utc | 71 Some great comments and summaries folks, thanks. And thanks again to b for hosting and posting…..grin Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 25 2015 3:14 utc | 72 Siemens – Sukhoi version 2.. Posted by: james | Nov 25 2015 3:35 utc | 73 @ 57 Posted by: Harry | Nov 25 2015 3:37 utc | 74 @IHaveALittleToAdd: “You have inadvertently made a great point. China has made it clear they do not want US warships patrolling the South China Sea, thus they could take military action if a US ship were within their territorial waters. The problem is that the US is a very powerful country and China has assets exposed that would be ripe for retaliation. The point is that these decisions are not made in a vacuum, but are married to power, risk, and justification.” Asia Times on the downing of the Russian plane.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 25 2015 4:03 utc | 76 This article was written by Mike Whitney on 10/9, and is kinda interesting in retrospect. Posted by: Penelope | Nov 25 2015 4:04 utc | 77 Asia Times on Turkey-Russia ties after jet shoot-down.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 25 2015 4:10 utc | 78 @Sukhoi “Should the US have attacked the Chinese in that instance? Well yes, according to you.” Penelope@69 – I think Tony Cartalucci’s latest article at NEO is off on one point – the suggestion that Syria retaking the Afrin-Jarabalus corridor will somehow be the end of conflict there. Tony is imagining a kind of grand defeat of an innate opposition in that part of Syria without recognizing it is a proxy war with a psychopathic Erdogan and his proxy army: JaN and ISIS. Posted by: PavewayIV | Nov 25 2015 4:19 utc | 80 @Harry – In his “defense” (not sure why I’m bothering) “IHaveLittleToAdd” has been here for a while. Not so for the others though. They’re clearly here to lay the propaganda line because of the recent shootdown. thirdeye on the previous thread makes astute commentary especially in the first paragraph.. here is the whole post for this thread as well… Posted by: james | Nov 25 2015 4:20 utc | 82 Bhadrakumar at Asia Times on Putin’s pivot to Iran.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 25 2015 4:21 utc | 83 Obviously, there is some haste in shutting off the arms supply pipelines from Turkey and Jordan. And also in cutting off the possibility of partitioning Syria or Iraq. Yet, two days ago Iran outright denied that she has Basij or IRGC forces in Syria. Iran said she had only advisers in Syria. Putin held a 2-hour conversation yesterday with Khameini. I’ve been concerned for a long time about whether Iran is committing sufficient forces. Today I researched it & this is what I found. It’s dated Oct 4, but is the best I can come up with. It’s hard for me to believe that there are so many men fighting against ISIS, et al. What do you think? Posted by: Penelope | Nov 25 2015 4:30 utc | 84 from turkeys zaman press “Despite being warned 10 times in five minutes because it was coming towards our border, it insisted on continuing its violation. This plane was downed in an intervention by our F-16s,” Erdoğan said in a speech in Ankara, adding the actions were fully in line with Turkey’s rules of engagement…. Posted by: james | Nov 25 2015 4:36 utc | 85 in re 26, 43 Posted by: rufus magister | Nov 25 2015 4:39 utc | 86 Turkey’s new darlings have a strangely familiar stench about them… Posted by: Vintage Red | Nov 25 2015 4:56 utc | 87 http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/11/the-motive-how-russias-enemies-benefit.html Posted by: Penelope | Nov 25 2015 4:58 utc | 88 @87 Interesting and important. I never ever understood how exactly the United States expected a 180 degree turn in the US-Iran relationship just by signing the nuclear agreement. After a decade of threatening war? After a decade where the Iran and the US faced off in more and more local conflicts? After a decade of the US letting its allies run rampant and antagonize Iran in every way? No, I never could see it. Russia and Iran are firm allies. And this phenomenon is, in terms of geopolitics, a huge event that has never occurred before (far as I know). Since the days of the Czar the West has been seeking to keep Russia for making a formal alliance with a unified, independent Iran. And now it has happened. @Penelope@65 Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 25 2015 5:36 utc | 90 At this point, the Russians (all of them) are not happy. Something ugly will happen to Turkey. Probably some stealthy false flag/psy-op thingie. But rather harsh. Europe is probably being flooded with Russians. Posted by: blues | Nov 25 2015 5:44 utc | 91 Israel seems to be riding Turkey’s coattails. Report: Israel strikes Hezbollah positions in Syria, killing 13
Syria/Russia are going to have to get Kuweires and the airbase just east of Damascus back in shape … or be forced to use the missiles on the cruiser in the Med. They seem to have had plenty of time to do just that in this case. Posted by: jfl | Nov 25 2015 5:46 utc | 92 Since this is an open thread- I’d like to ask “”b and “somebody” and any other German citizens that might be here the following question: is the history of the Gehlen Organization well known and accepted? relevant quote from a poster on the zaman site. Posted by: james | Nov 25 2015 6:01 utc | 94 @96 – I’d be interested to hear the discussions about these raids between the Russians, Syrians and Hezbollah, that’s for sure. Can the Russians really let that kind of stuff go on unanswered without creating some friction? Though, I suppose Syria has never itself taken the bait either. It just seems to be a fact of life that the settler state murders with impunity. Though I would imagine that the war in Syria and the building up of Hezbollah means this is the beginning of the end of that situation… @97 – for the link, just click the search button again. Google seems to not like the apostrohe in the links @jfl@96 Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 25 2015 6:27 utc | 97 obvious motive Posted by: james | Nov 25 2015 6:29 utc | 98 Below is a link to the Reuters story about Obama and Hollande meeting today. Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 25 2015 6:55 utc | 100 |
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