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Erdogan’s AKP “Wins” Snap Election – Successful Challenge Unlikely
The snap election results in Turkey are somewhat surprising and strongly diverge from recent opinion polls. And the result will, as predicted, not check Erdogan. This snap election than "corrected" the June vote in which the AKP had lost its former majority.
With 98% of the vote counted the announced preliminary result is about
- AKP 50%
- CHP 25%
- MHP 12%
- HDP 10%
With this count Erdogan's AKP would have some 317 seats, 13 less than the 330 needed for constitution changing supermajority. But should the lefty/Kurdish HDP fall, by whatever means, under 10% its seats would practically go to the AKP and a supermajority would be likely.
But the election commission has now, for unexplained reasons, shut down its website and we do not get updated results. Pre-election polling, which was quite to the point in the June election, is now off by 6 to 8%. No pollster predicted the AKP above 44%.
We can therefor expect that many people will call this a fraudulent election. It may well have been one. Erdogan certainly does not refrain from playing dirty. But do not expect much success for any challenge. The police, prosecutors, and courts are all under tight AKP control. Internationally Erdogan is getting a lot of support from "western" states.
Just two day before the vote the U.S. announced that it approved long held back ‘smart bomb’ sale to Turkey. The EU held back a report critical on political and human rights in Turkey. Just twelve days ago Merkel visited for a photo op on the Sultan's throne and offered billions for Turkey to stop sending migrants to northern Europe. There was little criticism of Erdogan for seizing the Koza-İpek Group and the various media channels it owns. These "western" measure were, all together, very supportive for Erdogan and likely brought him some additional voters. So do not expect any criticism from these sides even if some evidence of vote manipulation emerges. The fix is now in.
The larger question though is what does this mean for Turkey? What does it mean for the civil war in Turkey against the Kurds? And what does this mean for the Jihadi war on Syria that Erdogan and others are waging?
@Noirette@53
[…] Thing is, Erdogan is *really* way out in lalaland. Poroshenko, a minor figure, is a miracle of predictable idiotic stability in comparison. Even the US Gvmt. with CEO Obama is easier (for me) to understand.
The “Golden Chairs” where he sat with La Merkel (see kafkananda@24) support your “way out in lalaland” assessment of Erdogan.
Different threads converged at the snap elections, and the results cannot be seen outside the US/NATOstan vs Russia context, or the “coalition of the unwilling” confrontation with Russia in Syria. La Merkel visit and photo-op, followed by statements from the “Golden Chairs,” was a welcomed PR boost for Erdogan. As kafkananda@24 says, “Angela did her part.” After the usual blah, blah, blah, facilitating Turkey’s accession to Eurostan, blackmail money to shut the refugee pipeline, La Merkel PR trip had another goal, that of keeping Erdogan as NATO’s bulldog in Russia’s underbelly.
La Merkel was performing an errand for the US/NATO, and Erdogan played his part in the show very well. No statements about human rights violations, freedom of the press, national security, nothing that could cloud the PR boost. US/NATOstan intentions are clear: despite contradictions (Kurds, etc.), they will keep on using Erdogan as the frontline dog in Syria, and a little help from his friends in a difficult election was necessary. Even if Erdogan didn’t get a parliamentary majority to change the constitution, he now has the appearance of the mandate he lost in June, all he needed to do the rest by hook or by crook.
Retrospectively, now we can see who was behind, or allowed the bombing of the peaceful Kurds to happen, it was all part of the election strategy. At the core of US/NATOstan support for Erdogan is Syria, and we can expect a hot winter at the Levant, with erratic, vitriolic Erdogan foaming at the mouth against the Russians. Internally, his situation is very fragile, and he will have to make massive use of his repressive apparatus to contain the different forces that oppose him. In summary, the US/NATOstan, who do not particularly consider Erdogan a reliable ally, will do the best to get all the mileage they can from him, and for Turkey to stay the course in Syria, but for Erdogan, whose political capital is dwindling down fast, that will be an uphill battle, literally, on and off the streets.
Erdogan is on a collision course with his own destiny.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Nov 3 2015 2:46 utc | 78
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