Turkey’s New Election Unlikely To Check Erdogan

October 29, 2015

The outcome of Sunday's election in Turkey will likely be the same as the prior one in June. At least that is what the polls are saying:

The June results:
AKP 40,9%, CHP 25%, MHP 16,3%, HDP 13,1%, Voter turnout: 83,9%

The prognosis for Sunday:
AKP 41,7%, CHP 27,9%, MHP 14,2%, HDP 13,8%, Voter turnout 91%

The two main parties, Erdoigan's Islamist AKP and the hapless social-democratic CHP, will slightly win. The right-wing MHP will lose voters to Erdogan's AKP and the leftist/Kurdish HDP will also gain a bit. The many minor parties which do not make the 10% cut will be the overall losers.

The coalition perspectives will be the same as in June. There is no way the MHP would join any coalition in which the HDP takes part and after Erdogan reignited the war on the Kurds the HPD has no way to join with the AKP. But any possible coalition AKP + CHP or AKP + MHP will lead to a significant loss of Erdogan's powers. A lot of AKP's dirty laundry would be washed in public should CHP or MHP cabinet minister go through the files in the ministries they would take away from the AKP.

The AKP could still win a parliamentary majority should either the MHP or the HDP not make the 10% cut. There may be ways to arrange that like creating more "terror attacks" in Kurdish areas on election day or some other shenanigan. This report, interesting for its detailed view on the Turkish society, analyses that unlikely case.

But why should Erdogan agree to a coalition when he didn't agree to one in June? He could just let any negotiations fail, install another temporary government and require new elections in spring. Meanwhile he could further build his presidential empire and degrade the prime minister and cabinet to mere servants. He would have time to raid more media that are not toeing his line. Rumor says he is already planning for that. He would also have time to create some judicial case against the HDP that would would keep it out of a third election round.

The U.S. would hardly protest. Notice that there has been no outcry in U.S. media over the AKP takeover and yesterdays raid on the Koza-İpek Group and the various media channels it owns. Erdogan is openly threatening to bomb the U.S. Kurdish allies in Syria and no one is Washington is protesting this. There is also no outcry from the EU which is holding back a critical report on Turkey and Erdogan because he is threatening to unleash further "refugee" waves.

As Erdogan is getting away with each and every crime without even a bit of protests from his major NATO allies he is unlikely to hold back from further mischief. His constitutional role as president of Turkey is to be a neutral arbitrator not the partisan dictator he actually is. But no one in the international sphere is calling him out on it. I therefore expect that the election on Sunday will have results similar to the one expected above but that it will neither lead to a stable government nor to an end of Erdokhan's rule over Turkish politics.

Posted by b on October 29, 2015 at 18:53 UTC | Permalink

Comments

thanks b.. “Erdokhan’s rule”.. i guess that is a play on words – not sure who the other half of the name relates to. why is it no one challenges erdogans rulership here? it has been disastrous for turkey with no end in site.. does erdogan think the kurds are going to roll up and disappear somehow? why is he so opposed to the kurds? is this a religious thing? i don’t get it..

Posted by: james | Oct 29 2015 19:07 utc | 1

Erdogan is not opposed because when the plot to over throw Assad was hatched in 2006 Turkey was the key part of that plan with the usual gang
The training of terrorists took place there and Turkey has acted as the gateway for the outside jihadis. All part of the western plan to over throw Assad. Turkey with the full knowledge and support of the US israel and the gulf monarchies plus the EU who put sanctions on Syria.
Now 4 years later the plan has not worked and it threatens to destabilise Turkey (think pakistan and the Taliban) and the migrants threaten EU unity. And the ISIL have ideas of their own.
but getting out of the hole they have all dug for themselves is not so easy. They have all committed to a failed plan and still think something can be salvaged. France held their own conference on Syria without Russia and Iraq – they obviously have secrets to discuss!!!
They can’t criticise Erdogan as he also knows where the bodies are buried. He could quite easily out obama funding terrorists for example

Posted by: James lake | Oct 29 2015 19:38 utc | 2

I don’t understand the hatred of the Kurds either. I live in the UK and I meet Kurds who will call themselves Turkish Kurds and here they get along with Turks.
The problem is Islamic nationalism promoted by erdogan that Kurds have less rights

Posted by: James lake | Oct 29 2015 19:41 utc | 3

Russia buzzes US carrier; China steamed over Lassen passage; How to improve Pacific intelligence; Blimp goes rogue!; and a bit more…
http://www.defenseone.com/news/2015/10/the-d-brief-october-29-2015/123238/

Posted by: ALAN | Oct 29 2015 19:43 utc | 4

Erdogan or his successor still has to deal with the dismal economic situation.

Posted by: Willy2 | Oct 29 2015 19:56 utc | 5

I wonder if HDP support is polled properly, as the areas where the support is largest are harder to access. Before the last election the question was if they get a bit less than 10% or a wee bit more, and they got 13%. Now the access to the easter Turkey is even harder. The other aspect is that many Kurds voted for AKP, so AKP can still loose some of them. But one poll predicts an outright win for AKP.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 29 2015 20:28 utc | 6

Perhaps a mistake will be made when the voting machines are programmed? Actually, the “hung election” scenario I also think likely as it allows Erdogan to continue on his sordid path. Even more important to seal the Syria-Turkey border and support Syrian Kurds.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 29 2015 20:30 utc | 7

I do believe that the “Wayne Madsen” theory of Turkey (as I perceive it) needs to be considered. The central point of which seems to be that a cabal of radical neocons (or “Western Atlanticists”) called the Donmeh wish to bring Turkey under the control of the U.S. et al. And Erdogan is opposing them. With the result that both Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies have become distorted side effects of this great struggle.
Also, the Kurds, likely because of corrupt leaders, are involved in mini-civil wars in Iran, Syria, and Turkey with the goal of carving out an independent Kurdistan from contiguous parts of these three nations. And of course the U.S. is presumably exacerbating and “capitalizing” on this struggle.
So Turkey is now drawing closer to Iran and Syria, thus coming under attack by the propaganda machine. globalist mafia cabal.
Or so, it seems, that theory goes.

Posted by: blues | Oct 29 2015 20:53 utc | 8

Whatever the results are, Turkey has entered in a period of deep instability that would certainly snowball as it’ll affect the economy that has been the main achievement of the AKP’s ruling.
Having made enemies of most of its neighbors and having failed to exploit them economically, Turkey is now desperate to re-enter in the EU race to maintain its economy afloat. Yet the AKP’s repression and actions have widened the gap with the EU.
Therefore Turkey is in a trap and would need to bow to everything that the EU, USA and Russia will dictate. That is why desperate Erdogan has unleashed the refugees crisis so the EU need to deal with him
If he looses again the majority in the sunday elections, he will be even weaker. In any case, Erdogan is not anymore in a position to antagonize anyone, including Bashar al Assad.

Posted by: Virgile | Oct 29 2015 21:12 utc | 9

The Caliph at the gates of Vienna
Pepe Escobar’s new article, over my pay grade, might need to read it more than once:
http://atimes.com/2015/10/the-caliph-at-the-gates-of-vienna/

Posted by: shadyl | Oct 29 2015 21:14 utc | 10

To accompany Pepe’s is this by Kadi, http://thesaker.is/the-predictable-erdogan/
It seems Daesh’s Chechen corp wants to take on the Russians now that they’ve come to them in Latakia.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 29 2015 21:56 utc | 11

Not 100% accurate b. I heard(NPR) a detailed story about the takeover of media offices today. It did not paint Erdogan in a good light.

Posted by: CRMH | Oct 29 2015 22:03 utc | 12

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50587
Vladimir Putin: The profession obliges.
Nicolas Sarkozy: Mr President, I am very happy to visit Moscow again. As you might have noticed, many events took place, but you know what my earnest conviction is: the world needs Russia – Russia and Europe are bound to work together.
Despite the fact that sometimes there were differences between us – between our countries – but when we spoke with you, we were always able to make the right compromise. And I do not understand how you can make a compromise if you do not discuss the problem and do not talk to your opponent. We need to talk to each other, listen to each other and what’s most important – we need to respect each other. I believe that these are the main development patterns for Russia and France: there is a need for mutual respect

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 29 2015 23:06 utc | 13

According to Al Monitor Russia has just banned Turkish cargo going into the federation. Sanctions.

Posted by: CE | Oct 29 2015 23:09 utc | 14

Wayne Madsen picked up the donmeh narrative from the Turks that told him that Jews that converted to Islam were responsible for the Armenian Genocide. Armenian historians have researched it and give no credence to the donmeh story.
A lot of very good reporting has come from Wayne Madsen but in the honmeh narrative he was hoodwinked by the Turks.
I have to hand it to the Turks. They certainly keep trying.

Posted by: AriusArmenian | Oct 29 2015 23:31 utc | 15

In addition I will add to #15 that conjuring up the donmeh in Turkey that Erdogan is supposedly opposing looks like an attempt to cast Erdogan as a Turkish patriot.
So with the donmeh narrative the Turks can absolve themselves of any responsibility for the Armenian Genocide and turn Erdogan into a patriot. The Turks behind this donmeh narrative have taken lessons from Goebbels.

Posted by: AriusArmenian | Oct 29 2015 23:42 utc | 16

Gengis erdo Khan
Just another volatile drop being added to the soup that is this bubbling crisis in Syria. Our collective hope of somehow surviving all the mad snares and myriad possible miscalculations, is diminishing. We are hanging by a thread now.

Posted by: Copeland | Oct 29 2015 23:56 utc | 17

FYI on pre-election Turkey by Patrick Cockburn.

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 30 2015 0:18 utc | 18

@14 ce.. thanks for that article.. here’s another one from today – same site..
Is Turkey setting a Kurdish trap?

Posted by: james | Oct 30 2015 0:46 utc | 19

AriusArmenian | Oct 29, 2015 7:31:29 PM | 15 –>
“A lot of very good reporting has come from Wayne Madsen but in the honmeh narrative he was hoodwinked by the Turks.
“I have to hand it to the Turks. They certainly keep trying.”
AriusArmenian | Oct 29, 2015 7:31:29 PM | 16 –>
“So with the donmeh narrative the Turks can absolve themselves of any responsibility for the Armenian Genocide and turn Erdogan into a patriot. The Turks behind this donmeh narrative have taken lessons from Goebbels.”
Hmm… Hmm… Where have I heard that sort of logic before?
Hmm…

Posted by: blues | Oct 30 2015 1:30 utc | 20

Have to wonder if NATO countries are not bothering to “discipline” Erdogan because they know he’ll be ousted by military coup.

Posted by: gemini33 | Oct 30 2015 1:52 utc | 21

How the job gets done.
“Seal was sentenced to work in public service at the Salvation Army facility on Airline Highway (U.S. 61) in Baton Rouge as a modification by the judge to his original plea bargain. On February 19, 1986, Barry Seal was shot to death in front of the site. Seal’s shooting abruptly brought the DEA’s investigation to an end.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vH-cuspaCac
1 hour and 51 min. Off your life by that much. You are young. You can afford it.

Posted by: blues | Oct 30 2015 2:33 utc | 22

If the polling is anything like western propaganda polling with its anti-left bias, then the Kurds will win by landslide 😉

Posted by: tom | Oct 30 2015 3:14 utc | 23

Here’s a bit more on the Ghassan Kadi article on Erdogan:
What has changed also was how Turkey was transformed from a nation with liberal Western attributes, looks and attire to one that has a government that is Islamic in spirit, looks and aspirations.
Last but not least, the political power was taken away from the armed forces and put into the hands of the president. That was a major change that perhaps has dug the last nail in the coffin of Ataturk’s legacy.
Ataturk gave power to military leadership. Army chiefs, a council of three comprised of the three main divisions of the armed forces, had the power of a council of elders and the position of a government watchdog. Should politicians put their own interests before public good, the council of generals could step in and declare what was seen in the West as a military coup, when it was indeed the army chiefs exercising their constitutional powers to save the state from the foolhardiness of politicians.
Erdogan stripped this power away from the military and gave the president ultimate power and virtual impunity. Clearly, he was preparing for something huge for which he needed ultimate power.
None of the above observations about Erdogan is a pretext of predictability unless put into the context of him being an Islamist. To see his predictability, we must stop for a moment considering that it is the president of a country that we are analyzing here, and just look at what are the core attributes of an Islamist and what takes precedence in his decision-making.
http://thesaker.is/the-predictable-erdogan/
Worth reading; shows how his being an Islamist accounts for his behavior.

Posted by: Penelope | Oct 30 2015 3:45 utc | 24

NYT at least reported the seizure of Koza-Ipek group and the raid and forced closure of the media that belongs to the group. The last sentence: “The raid was condemned as an attack on press freedom by opposition politicians, rights groups and European diplomats.”
The actions of Turkish government is really a banditry in Egyptian style (heavy handed muzzling of the media and confiscating the properties of business people sympathetic to opposition, to be administered by cronies). But indeed, nothing that US government cannot swallow.
The thing is that if Erdogan’s party fails to win the majority, the continuation of proxy war against Syria and Russia will be difficult. No other party in Turkey supports that — but US government does. So even though Erdogan lays very weird charges against Obama (that his advisers run the campaign of the Kurdish opposition party, HDP) , the calculation is that a glimmer of hope for democracy in Syria is worth a river of blood PLUS finishing off democracy in Syria. And it will not be an autocratic regime that keeps Islamists in check.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 30 2015 4:20 utc | 25

@13 Libya certainly didn’t need Sarko

Posted by: bbbbb | Oct 30 2015 4:30 utc | 26

@25 pb
And all this – war on Syria and Russia, the demise of democracy in Turkey and Syria, the rise of fanatical ‘Islam’ in Syria and Turkey – for what, exactly? The neocon separation from political reality is as complete as Wall Street’s separation from fiscal/financial reality.
Can anyone doubt that the end of empire is at hand? Can anyone not be looking forward to it? Well, it’s hard to look forward to the uncertainty and … whatever … that will replace it, but it will certainly be wonderful to have empire behind us.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 30 2015 5:15 utc | 27

Those Kurds Erdogan threatens to bomb are not US allies. Not even the US claims they are allies. These are the YPG Kurds in Syria, not the Iraqi puppets. Actually the REAL ally of the US (and Erdogan) is ISIS. I’m pretty sure the siege of Kobani was an attempt to get rid of that obstacle. Remember, the US air support was late and inadequate, even the mainstream media noticed that. And the reason they (Turks, US and the ISIS) had to lift the siege was that the Turkish Kurds were close to an open rebelion.

Posted by: Balu | Oct 30 2015 6:25 utc | 28

in re 8 —
Here’s someone who has seriously considered Madsen’s “theory.” They’re the prototype for the Illuminati, y’know?

Just as their Bolshevik counterparts were attempting a revolution in Russia in 1905, the Donmeh organized themselves as “Young Turks” and deposed the Ottoman Sultan Abdulhammid II in 1908.

We’ll all just overlook the fact that the Bolsheviks were barely up and running in 1905, and that there was actually a separate organization for Jewish workers, the Bund, hostile to the Bolsheviks. THe spontaneous movement grew out of earlier strikes and discontent over the diastrous Russo-Japanese War.
Nor had the liberala bourgeoisie in the Constitutional Democrats fully had their fill of the autocracy. Revolution was not in the cards in 1905, though the experience proved invaluable.
Strategic ties between Turkey and Israel have a very simple explanation. Arab nationalism got its start against the Ottoman Empire, making the Turks outsiders as this further evolved into pan-Arabism post-WWII. Her former (extensive) European holdings made her more attuned with the West (of necessity, to compete and survive). As a NATO member as well, she is a natural regional ally.
Madsen offers no concrete, present-day evidence of his conspiracy, merely unsupported assertions by unnamed “officials.” When the topic was first broached, I debunked the historical “evidence” and the Iraqi report that regurgitated it.

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 30 2015 12:18 utc | 29

I for one am hoping and wishing Sultan Erdogan wins the elections. He’s the best idiot Turkey needs at this time in history. Turkey is going down and only Erdogan can make this process faster. In any case, NATO/EU and all the usual suspects needs an Erdogan win. They’ve gone too far down the road in Syria to change horses. Erdogan hasn’t done serving his usefulness in the region yet..

Posted by: Zico | Oct 30 2015 13:14 utc | 30

@ rufus magister | Oct 30, 2015 8:18:02 AM | 29
….and that was on the day when he had heard a preacher, more subtle than the rest of the human herd, cry in his pulpit: “My dear brethren, do not ever forget, when you hear the progress of lights praised, that the loveliest trick of the Devil is to persuade you that he does not exist!” — The Generous Gambler, by Charles Pierre Baudelaire
Well rufus, I think you may be referring to an article by the peculiar Henry Makow Ph.D., wherein he refers to the Illuminati in relation to the putative Donmeh cabal. People have been scoffing at assertions of the existence of the Illuminati cabal for generations. Perhaps they have done a great job of convincing folks that they are merely an empty legend. Imagine an ultra-organized group of people who maybe started out in, say, ancient Rome, then moved on to London, and who simply want to rule the world from behind the scenes. People who can pretend to be Catholics or Jews or Muslims, or whatever facade serves their purposes. Is that so unbelievable?
So maybe they pretended to be Jews pretending to be these Donmeh, ruling Turkey from behind the scenes through puppets. And then some ruthless Muslim Erdogan came along and usurped them.
Anyway, I think the whole “Western” Syria play is over. The Syrian situation has developed in a manner such that the “rebels” are not going to achieve the chaos certain elements were hoping for. I hope the Turks can achieve some satisfactory result. But most of the Middle East, including Israel, will presumably run out of both oil and water.
Central and Southern California will soon run out of water too. It’s global drying, as people drain the continental aquifers and raise the level of the oceans.

Posted by: blues | Oct 30 2015 14:47 utc | 31

Seized Turkish media outlets turn pro-government overnight

Two Turkish opposition newspapers seized in a crackdown on an arch-enemy of President Tayyip Erdogan suddenly turned staunchly pro-government on Friday, publishing fawning front pages after new state-appointed management sacked most of their staff.
…
The newspapers’ front pages, long fiercely critical of Erdogan and his administration, carried photographs on Friday of the president flanked by his wife and military officers during national day celebrations the previous day.
“Turkey as One Heart”, read Millet’s headline. “The Square of the People”, said Bugun, playing to Erodgan’s self-image as “the people’s president” despite opposition criticism of his vast new-1,000 room palace and authoritarian instincts.
“Overnight the newspaper changed character. It looks like Pravda today. You see Erdogan, our president, saluting the people,” said Orhan Kemal Cengiz, a Bugun columnist whose final article was not published and who was uncertain whether he even has a job at the paper. “I suppose it will depend on the election result.”
Before the takeover, the newspapers’ front pages had protested the seizure, including headlines “Theft by Trustee” in Bugun and “Bloody Putsch” in Millet, set against a black page.
But a newly-appointed editor ordered police to remove from the building anyone who tried to defend those front pages, according to journalists who were in the newsroom.
“He held up the front page and said, ‘Is this your paper? This is a disgrace. If anyone here thinks like this, they should not stay, they should go’,” Cihan Acar, a Millet reporter, told Reuters TV.
“Then he took the names of us who defended the page and we were sacked immediately.”

Posted by: b | Oct 30 2015 16:25 utc | 32

“Erdogan reignited the war on the Kurds”
Wrong- The Kurds ended the ceasefire
Check facts, don’t regurgitate lies.
“His constitutional role as president of Turkey is to be a neutral arbitrator not the partisan dictator he actually is”
Hey why not use the Hitler meme? Really push button
Scraping the barrel with that (dis)information

Posted by: Penny | Oct 30 2015 16:52 utc | 33

In the meantime, the President of the People’s Republic of China was received in UK with such lavish honors that one could think that he is Netanyahu visiting Washington. OTOH, President Xi promised the Kingdom billions upon billions in lucrative contracts, so the Britons have more rational reasons for their deficit in dignity.
In the meantime, I sincerely hope that Erdogan’s idiocy will come to an end in some reasonable time span. The policy of unlimited aid to the rebels is by no means popular in Turkey, and the rising fascism is not all that popular either. Plausible commentaries say that if AKP gets more mandates that earlier this year, it can boldly go for “wash, repeat”, but if it gets less, some number of AKP deputies can recoil from such a course. Charisma is the divine gift that allows to mesmerize people to follow and win, and in the case of failure it usually gets dented. Interestingly, CHP, “the main opposition party”, is hosting a former President of Uruguay, famous as the most modest president in the world who insists to use a cheap car (they found 1973 WV for him) and a cheap hotel (three stars, one can get three stars for 22 dollars per night!). And the offices of an Uruguayan president are definitely low on the list of ostentatious presidential digs, something that Turks may compare.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 30 2015 20:53 utc | 34

blues at 31 —
It is indeed the “peculiar” Makow, here’s the actual link, it’s widely posted but I used this one, I was a bit rushed over coffee this a.m., my bad.
Goin’ DaVinci Code on us, I see. I’ll believe whatever you can prove. So far, no evidence and ergo no proof.
Folks attempted to indoctrinate me (unsuccessfully) in the Illuminati conspiracy theory long ago and far away, back in the 70’s when I was sent to a private fundamentalist high school. “Blue Helmet” fears did not take their either, BTW. .
The key words in your post are “imagine,” pretend,” and “maybe.” You offer no concrete evidence that any of this occurred. Oh, and you forgot to the throw in the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, aka the Knights Hospitallers and the Jesuits.
We’ve had two changes of mode of production (from antiquity to medieval to capitalist) and innumerable changes of dynasties and governments. But this same clique has been in power globally for millenia and no one noticed? Sounds like a backward projection of Asimov’s Foundation trilogy.

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 31 2015 0:51 utc | 35

@ rufus magister | Oct 30, 2015 8:51:24 PM | 34
I nearly always produce generous amounts of evidence and proofs and links in my comments. But surely you would not expect me to let slip any knowledge I might hypothetically possess regarding the Illuminati on some blog? This is the season of Samhain (pronounced: Sow-een), the end of the harvest season, the beginning of the “darker half” of the year, and the veil between the worlds of the living and the dead is now very thin. So I am, at least to some degree, in sort of a position of hiding. And please, please refrain from bringing up the subject of the Order of Malta. Thank you.

Posted by: blues | Oct 31 2015 5:52 utc | 36

in re 35 —
Your superstitions prevent the presentation of evidence? Well, isn’t that convenient.
Why the dislike of the Hospitallers? Paul of Russia served as Grand Master, you know. You’re not hunting for the black bird, are you?

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 31 2015 13:13 utc | 37

For what it’s worth, I expect Erdogan to do less well, maybe far less, than shown in the poll posted by b. From the demographics, ha ha that is here a fancy word for intuition, it’s a hard call, as Erdogan and his party do have strong support, call it islam and da economy. My feeling rests on the manifest desperation this man is exhibiting.
at okie, 13. Sarkozy ‘appears’ to support better relations with Russia, he was speaking to a Russian parterre, after all. Speech is very shifty, unclear. He is only trying to get votes from FN types who approve Le Pen’s pro-Russia stance.

Posted by: Noirette | Oct 31 2015 13:23 utc | 38

For what it’s worth, I expect Erdogan to do less well, maybe far less, than shown in the poll posted by b.
From the demographics, ha ha that is here a fancy word for intuition, it’s a hard call, as Erdogan and his party do have strong support, call it islam and da economy. My feeling rests on the manifest desperation this man is exhibiting, nothing more.
at okie, 13. Sarkozy ‘appears’ to support better relations with Russia, he was speaking to a Russian parterre, after all. Speech is very shifty, unclear. He is only trying to get votes from FN types who approve Le Pen’s pro-Russia stance.

Posted by: Noirette | Oct 31 2015 13:34 utc | 39

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