I am not sure if Jordan and UAE are really dropping their participation in the support of the Syrian jihad. UAE send a lot of troops to Yemen, and the justification that is given is that they have to stick in solidarity with KSA to prevent a pro-Iranian state on Saudi border. Perhaps the are just too busy in Yemen where they managed to get rid of a troublesome Dubai prince.

But Jordan is more important here, and it is ruled by the exiles from Arabia, expelled by the House of Saud. They do not have a sentimental attachment to KSA, to put it mildly, the blowback from Syrian civil war is acute, and the potential fall-out, huge. And like al-Sisi, rulers of Jordan have no particular reason to oppose Assad (anti-democratic? so what?).

More interesting news from the "mercenaries":

The Aleppo Victory Army’s Sharia Council, exasperated with the “farcical retreat and withdrawal” of Aleppo’s “squabbling” rebel brigades, threatened in a strongly worded statement Sunday the dissolution of any factions failing to unite against what would be the regime’s “disastrous completion of the Aleppo siege.”

Jabha’s commander blamed chaos in rebel ranks along with overstretched and underfunded fighters for fleeing the battlefield.

“The myriad brigades under al-Jabha a-Shamiya’s umbrella in northeast Aleppo are bleeding men and hardware across multiple fronts–they’re caught between regime forces to the south, and IS to the north, not to mention skirmishing with the Kurds in Sheikh Maqsoud,” explained al-Kurdi.

“Add to this a complete lack of coordination between each brigade, and not nearly enough guns and cash from the Americans to compete with the much-better equipped Islamic State, and they had no choice but to withdraw from some 50km2 of the northeastern Aleppo countryside,” al-Kurdi said.

--------

The sad fate of foreign cheap labor. Downsizing and outsourcing elsewhere give fleeting employment, and then the cycle of cost cutting and downsizing starts again.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 14 2015 18:49 utc | 1

Strategic Implications of the Russians' Cruise Missile Launch
http://www.voltairenet.org/en

worth reading, shows range if used from Caspian or from Black Sea

Posted by: Penelope | Oct 14 2015 19:02 utc | 2

"History is written by the winners." Napoleon Bonaparte

May your postings live on forever.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 14 2015 19:14 utc | 3

thanks b.. "This split with the Wahhabi fraction of the Arab League, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, will likely widen." that would be nice.... not sure about that, but would be good..

too bad the western leadership under the usa can't recognize how they have aligned with the wahhabi ideology while saying they are wanting to get rid of al qaeda /isis... it doesn't serve their interest in regime change obviously..i am always amazed at how the msm has been able to sell that, or keep a lid on that contradiction..

regarding the dynamic at present in syria.. russian air power is good, but it will have to be backed up by men on the ground.. until that happens, this thing is going to drag on and even when it happens it is still going to drag on.. i can see saudi arabia/qatar and even the usa continuing to want to make russia's agenda here difficult, however covert they are about it.. as for turkey, they seem to be in a similar position, but more beaten down by a number of other realities that are a result of it's conflicted agenda in all this..

Posted by: james | Oct 14 2015 19:58 utc | 4

Yes,needs more boots on the ground. That will be from the allies mainly SAA need to regroup and retrain.doubt very much that Russia will supply infantry because they've said they won't.they are also in the middle of a big central reorg with a couple of new armies to shake down over the next couple of years. I expect they will use special forces for targeting etc and there will be a much increased tempo and range of artillery. Recall that the Ukraine standard tactic was mlrs and when used correctly against lightly dug in areas its very effective. The idea is to get the enemy moving then follow with mlrs.

Posted by: bridger | Oct 14 2015 20:29 utc | 5

Kuwait is playing with fire by allying itself with KSA/Qatar Terrorist Axis. The country is 30 percent Shiite, surrounded by majority Shia lands, and will sooner or later find itself torn apart again, if such one-sided policy continues.

Posted by: MMARR | Oct 14 2015 21:04 utc | 6

Thanks for the info

Posted by: From The Hague | Oct 14 2015 21:13 utc | 7

Russian airstrikes are significantly degrading, weakening and destroying ISIS and other terrorist groups. What are the Americans doing, asked Sergey Lavrov?

“(W)hy (are) the results of so many combat sorties…so insignificant,” he asked? “We have very few specifics which could explain what the US is exactly doing in Syria,” he added.

For sure, not attacking ISIS or other terrorists. Its thousands of alleged sorties “could have smashed the entire (country) to smithereens,” Lavrov stressed.

“Maybe their stated goal is not entirely sincere? Maybe it is regime change?” US weapons are going to terrorists, not nonexistent “moderates” as Washington claims.

Moscow opposes another Libya. Why are US forces refusing to work cooperatively with Russia against terrorists, Lavrov asked?

Maybe it’s because Washington wants them supported, not defeated and isn’t pleased “to see how effectively (Russia’s) military is working compared to” US operations accomplishing nothing - letting ISIS and other terrorists control more territory, not less. Russia’s intervention changed the dynamic.http://sjlendman.blogspot.co.uk/

Posted by: harry law | Oct 14 2015 21:15 utc | 8

The invaders from the north will simply retreat back to Turkey and when they and their masters see time fit, will attack again from Turkey. To me this looks like war by attrition with no end in sight unless Turkish artillery, air support and the jihadi shock troops are in some way put out of operation which will not happen.

Posted by: Hairy | Oct 14 2015 21:19 utc | 9

I hope Syria becomes whole again but let's not forget the goal is a salafist state in eastern syria and judging by the 50 ton air drop the deep state isn't finished in fanning the flames. So... scrap the wicked salafist idea and play a new card The Kurds! The Kurdish folk deserve a state and the Syrians could use an ally. Everyone but Turkey supports the Kurds and I hope they continue to get along with Assad in removing the Wahhabist factions. Quite frankly our President needs to stand up and start championing this or better yet, Putin aught to.

Posted by: au | Oct 14 2015 21:21 utc | 10

@2 Penelope

These perfectly round red circles don't take into the account the Earth's curvature. Once that's included, the strike zone covers all of Europe, save for Ireland and Portugal. So in reality the implications for the West are even more profound.

See the pic on the bottom for the correct estimate.

http://voronkov-kirill.livejournal.com/138347.html

Of course, the ships of the Caspian flotilla can travel up the Volga River, and that would increase the range even more.

Posted by: telescope | Oct 14 2015 21:24 utc | 11

@8 harry.. putin discussed that as well in the 20 minute video i shared last night in the previous thread - Exclusive Vladimir Putin Interview to Vladimir Solovyov | Eng Subs..

i think it's fairly obvious to anyone trying to maintain a neutral position.. the usa is more interested in regime change and turning syria into a quagmire of terrorists and drop off point for military gear to the good terrorists interested in regime change.. any other position is hard to hold - kinda like some of the isis positions right now!! funny how the usa is in bed with isis while claiming they want to get rid of isis, but that is the nature of the exceptional empire and it's steneographers working at the nyt, wapo and wsj at this point..

Posted by: james | Oct 14 2015 21:24 utc | 12

Wonder if Russia and Iran will deliver military supplies to Yemen Houthis if KSA persists in arming Syrian jihadists?

Posted by: Vollin | Oct 14 2015 21:26 utc | 13

- Yep. That were my thoughts as well when I saw a GOOD map of the situation in Syria. Syria + Russia have to secure, clean up the west of Syria. From there on they can work on destroying ISIS.
- I still think that Assad has to go. Syria simply needs a change in leadership. But removing Assad by the means of a US led "Regime change" is not acceptable as well. But that seems to be "off the table" (for the time being ?) right now.
- How is Turkey going to handle the upcoming flood of Al Nusrah fighters with all those US provided arms ? Turkey could take those weapons and handing them out to ISIS.
- How active are the neocons and their friends in the arms industries, in the US to increase pressure on Obama to flood Syria with US weapons ?

Posted by: Willy2 | Oct 14 2015 21:36 utc | 14

@psychohistorian #3

"History is written by the winners." Napoleon Bonaparte

Napoleon Bonaparte: "Let China sleep for when she awakes, she will shake the world"

China still half asleep, when she fully wake and join Russia in Syria it will be a game changer. thereafter.

From various reports US fleet determine to showdown over Spratly Island China's 12-mile nautical limits. US have stations two LCS or Littoral Combat Ships in Singapore, will China (PRC) finally awake China?

BTW Singapore is 75% overseas Chinese (Not compatible to (PRC) People Republic of China or Republic Of China (Taiwan) with a dictator regime sympathize to Amerikka.

http://www.stripes.com/news/navy/first-littoral-combat-ship-arrives-in-singapore-1.217105

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24wKIczkRZU

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/07/21/us-deployment-of-littoral-combat-ships-to-singapore/

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 14 2015 21:56 utc | 15

http://chasfreeman.net/lessons-from-americas-continuing-misadventures-in-the-middle-east/
~~~
That’s what the UN Charter was meant to guarantee.

Since then, almost no one in American public office has referred to either the Charter or international law. When President Obama did so in the UN General Assembly at the end of September, there was stunned silence in the hall as other countries’ leaders marveled at his chutzpah. He was, after all, extolling principles Americans once upheld but now refuse to apply to ourselves or our friends. The president’s castigation of other great powers for their deviations from the Charter and international law simply reminded many present of U.S. actions in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. These have marked the relapse to a state of international disorder in which the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.
~~~
What might we learn from our continuing misadventures in the Middle East?
~~~
We have shown that force can remove regimes. We have seen that it cannot replace them or the political structures it destroys. Our armed forces can shock, awe, and vanquish their foes on the battlefield. But, we have learned the hard way in Afghanistan and Iraq that wars do not end until the defeated accept defeat and stand down their resistance.

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 14 2015 22:03 utc | 16

In my view, the result is going to depend on how tired each side is. We've had evidence that Asad's army is worn out, after four years' war. The same must be true of the rebels, other than new foreign jihadists. The defence could be not as strong as they claim.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 14 2015 22:07 utc | 17

Again, 7k men are too few, even if they are elite fighters from different backgrounds, in a large battlefield that needs 5 times that many just to level up with the takfiris, double that to dislodge them for good. I guess the SAA has to make do with what is offered, after all, these people are volunteers.

Even if the Russians saturate IS/AQ with airstrikes, in a few weeks they will have learned the bombing routines, and with a little help from their Langley friends, they will manage to escape and evade, or will go underground. As the Syrian commander told the Russian journalists in the video b posted, takfiris cannot be underestimated, they have a will to fight and a drive to go against all odds.

Of course, the Russians, masters of war, are also learning, and the collective experience gathered at the C&C centers (4+1), means they are learning fast from the Syrian/Iraqi/Iranian/Hezbollah officers that have been fighting takfiris for years now. It's about two weeks since the Russians started bombing the takfiris, too short a time to expect significant results, but it has worked wonders for the SAA morale, and the results can be seen in battlefield gains, though it also shows they are stretched thin.

It is possible the Iranians are preparing a bold move, as announced by Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan, who said Iranian "military experts and advisors are taking preparatory actions that will end up in the complete annihilation of the Takfiri groups, including the ISIL terrorists, in Syria." Also, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari stated "[...]the terrorist groups in Syria will sustain great losses in coming days." Both of them spoke at at a ceremony to commemorate the killing in Syria of IRGC Commander Brigadier General Hossein Hamadani.

Iranian DM Vows Imminent Annihilation of All Takfiri Terrorists in Syria

On the diplomatic front, Lavrov is inviting interested parties to join the coordination center Russia set up with Iran/Iraq/Syria in Baghdad, and that Moscow is open to “review proposals for establishing new coordination centres in the region for the anti-terror fight”. Thereupon he disclosed, “We are considering setting up similar coordination centres in other places in this [Middle East] region”.

Russian bear roams Arabia’s sands, wets toes in Bosphorus

A Russian application of the old Vietnamese strategy, "talk-talk, fight-fight."

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Oct 14 2015 22:19 utc | 18

@Vollin 13

I surely hope that Iran and Russia in retaliation for the 500 TOW that Saudi Arabia delivered to the rebels will reciprocate with the Houthis in Yemen.
I wait for the Saudis to get the beating they couldn't dream of.

Posted by: Virgile | Oct 14 2015 22:34 utc | 19

Again, 7k men are too few, even if they are elite fighters from different backgrounds, in a large battlefield that needs 5 times that many just to level up with the takfiris, double that to dislodge them for good.

Take account of what I said. The remaining local fighters are tired too, after four years' war. It's pretty much a toss of the coin who's going to give way first.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 14 2015 22:36 utc | 20

South Front Oct 14 2015

China May join Russia in Syria... it depend on Syria and Iraq on the front and Iraqi request for China helps...

International Military Review - Syria, Oct. 14, 2015: The Chinese approach

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQBWSx5hGzY

https://www.youtube.com/user/crimeanfront

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 14 2015 23:07 utc | 21

@Laguerre@20

Take account of what I said. The remaining local fighters are tired too, after four years' war. It's pretty much a toss of the coin who's going to give way first.

A toss of the coin? Not possible anymore.

Both Russia and Iran have clearly stated their strategic commitment to defeat the takfiris, and they are bloody serious, since both of them know Syria/Iraq are the red-lines to contain the empire's nefarious schemes.

IRGC Deputy Top Commander Terms Iran Main Hurdle to US Plots in Region

TEHRAN (FNA)- Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Hossein Salami underlined that Iran is the main obstacle to the implementation of the US and its allies' plots in the region.

"The US has failed in its plots to dominate the region and is stuck in the quagmire of its policy thanks to the Islamic Iran's measures," Salami said, addressing a ceremony in the Western city of Hamadan on Wednesday morning.

He stressed that the era of the West's dominance over Muslims has long gone and the Islamic nations are conquering heights.

"We are still at the beginning of this path and the capacities of the Muslim world have not yet been activated completely," Salami underscored.

In relevant remarks in August, Salami said Washington's plots in the region were being defused one after another due to Iran's countermeasures.

"Today, we are defeating the US and all its regional and trans-regional allies' policies in the region and the world," Salami said, addressing a forum in Tehran[...]

I agree with you, the SAA and the Assad regime are tired, but the new support propped up by Russia/Iran is definitely giving them a second wind in their fight against the takfiris. I don't believe the takfiris are as tired, they have been getting replacements and new trainees all along these 4 years, and if you look at their pics, they look well fed, well dressed, and in top condition. Plus, their "goals" have no end in sight, as long as they do the empire's job, creating chaos and mayhem.

I will give some time for developments to unfold, it is still too early to tell, but a Syrian defeat is not possible anymore, even if that means a massive Iranian intervention. Both Russians and Iranians have shown their determination to defeat the plans of the empire in Syria, and they mean it.

Russia Sends Its Only Aircraft Carrier To Syria, Signals It Is Just Getting Started

As should be abundantly clear by now, The Kremlinis adopting a “slightly” different strategy when it comes to combatting terror in the Mid-East than that adopted by the US and its Western and regional allies.

The strategy of the US and its allies seems to go something like this: 1) covertly arm and train groups who you know might ultimately become terrorists because arming and training these groups may be a way to destabilize unfriendly regimes, 2) wait for blowback, 3) launch serious effort to combat terror if unfriendly regime has been “successfully” replaced by puppet government, or launch half-hearted effort to combat terror if situation still fluid and regime still clings to power.

Obviously, that strategy is prone to all types of problems, and sensing that the US and its allies might have finally met their foreign policy blunder Waterloo in Syria, Russia decided to call everyone’s bluff by launching a real war on terror. Of course, this war conveniently restores the regime of one of Moscow’s allies, but in the end the result is the same: anyone who is a terrorist and who is also fighting Assad in Syria is in for big trouble because Russia is using this is as an opportunity to reassert itself on the world stage and also to fire up a long-dormant military juggernaut.

Now, on the heels of hundreds of airstrikes accompanied by dramatic video footage as well as cruise missile attacks launched from Russian warships in the Caspian, The Kremlin is sending its lone heavy aircraft carrier into the fight. This is only the ship's sixth deployment in history[...]

We have to just wait and see.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Oct 14 2015 23:31 utc | 22

@8 They are dropping 50tons of military equipment and ammo because the terrorists radio chatter was saying they are running out of ammo, and their storage places got bombed.

Also USA is bombing a lot. The bombed power plants in Allepo. The Saudi are copying the masters of chaos and death in Yemen: oil refineries, grain silos, food centres, bridges and other important civilian assets.

Posted by: Sam.D (AntiNWO) | Oct 14 2015 23:59 utc | 23

re 22

I don't believe the takfiris are as tired, they have been getting replacements and new trainees all along these 4 years, and if you look at their pics, they look well fed, well dressed, and in top condition.

Haha! So you believe the propaganda. Think a bit about their situation.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 14 2015 23:59 utc | 24

David Horowitz joins the axis of resistance:

Indeed, growing numbers of Americans who have no special love for Russia or Orthodoxy—from billionaire capitalist Donald Trump to evangelical Christians—are being won over by Putin’s frank talk and actions.

How can they not? After one of his speeches praising the West’s Christian heritage—a thing few American politicians dare do—Putin concluded with something that must surely resonate with millions of traditional Americans: “We must protect Russia from that which has destroyed American society”—a reference to the anti-Christian liberalism and licentiousness that has run amok in the West.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/260372/russia-declares-holy-war-islamic-state-raymond-ibrahim

Posted by: Louis Proyect | Oct 15 2015 0:02 utc | 25

"Both Russia and Iran have clearly stated their strategic commitment to defeat the takfiris, and they are bloody serious, since both of them know Syria/Iraq are the red-lines to contain the empire's nefarious schemes."

I think this is absolutely correct. Iran and Russia have no other options except to fight it out in Syria and Iraq because they correctly see that these takfikiris are ultimately aimed at them. They have no other real options. If they do not, then Iran faces a repeat of the Iran-Iraq War and Russia a repeat of the Chechen Wars (I advise people to YouTube "Beslan School Massacre" for a reminder of that that entails).

The US on the other hand is quickly losing support at home and amongst the populations of its allies (even if they do have the governments as well controlled as a ventriloquist controls his dummy) and has no real reason to be fighting these wars except A) that it can still pay for them and B) because the Israel-Saudi-MIC Lobby is goading it on.

The funny thing is that by such actions, the US is cementing the Asian alliance that so frightened ZBig, not weakening it.

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 15 2015 0:13 utc | 26

Didn't the New York ( empire ) Times say that about 25,000 new jihadi recruits came into Syria the past year ?
If that's close to true then they are being plenty replenished. And that's also far more fighters then the Russian coalition has recently supplied. Also, To hold ground for the anti-US Empire coalition in a large number of towns and cities that are reclaimed, takes a lot of men for security. And It's quite easy for suicide bombers in small numbers to attack towns and cities the terrorists have lost. For Security in a bad shape, you just have to look to Iraq for an example. Or how about in Kobani recently.

That four-month campaign lie was always ludicrous, and I still can't believe that people thought it was realistic.

And with Russian intervention, that will be a lot of motivation for a lot of jihadis to flood into Syria, as well as for the evil empire to recruit more of its terrorist proxies.

If the battle goes well for Russian coalition in Syria, we will see a test when the battles get to larger cities, to see how things really shape up.

Overall I think the Russians are determined and they will win.
Also the severely criminally incompetent and corrupt Iraqi government is crucial to this whole anti-US empire coalition. I really hope the Russians tell them to get their security/ Army shit together, and quit with the secarian mass murder campaign.
The idea that Nouri Al- Malaki is not hanging by lamppost, is shocking to me. No one is more responsible for ISIL success in Iraq than Al Maliki.

Posted by: tom | Oct 15 2015 0:15 utc | 27

50 tons of munitions sounds like a lot but ammo is heavy. It's less than 3M rounds of AK-47 ammo. The quality of what was dropped would be more interesting. How much C4, anti tank missiles or RPGs would be a better indicator of intent. High powered sniper rifles, night vision equipment or maybe some Javelin launchers would also qualify as something more significant.
The press releases said small arms though so who do you believe? What we see from future ground ops will tell us.

Posted by: anon48 | Oct 15 2015 0:19 utc | 28

Another thought:

If the US REALLY wanted to get directly involved in the wars in Syria then it would have been pouring weapons into ISIS & Al Nusrah hands directly and not use the sneaky way through Saudi Arabia. Or are the CIA and the M.I.C. (Military Industrial Congressional Complex)not "on the same page" as the White House ?

Posted by: Willy2 | Oct 15 2015 0:48 utc | 29

All of insane Zbig's high brow, pretend to be a smart, level-headed thoughtful fellow;
geopolitical chess game rhetoric was/is a smokescreen for one fantastic, megalomaniacal goal (He doesn't care if Xi and Putin get married):

Pitting the US against Russia in a winner-take-all death match.

Put a Don Quixote outfit on him and a parachute and drop him on the Russian Side of that mountain.

Posted by: fast freddy | Oct 15 2015 0:54 utc | 30

@Wlly2

Thought occurred to me, too.

How embarrassing if Saudis took the initiative without Obama's ok.

Could not be admitted to in public.

Posted by: shadyl | Oct 15 2015 1:00 utc | 31

@15 Jack Smith,

Your quote about China is apt, thanks.

When Putin made his speech at the UN I wrote here that he would be operating with China's backing. Russia and China just undertook almost two weeks of joint military operations less than 6 weeks ago......don't need a weatherman to tell which way the wind is blowing. I have been watching China establish alternatives to the "Western" financial backroom activities this past year and was wondering when the next stake in the structure of Empire would be driven in.

About the boots on the ground thing. I suspect China would LOVE to provide boots on the ground support to this initiative. It would further support their waking up that Jack referred to.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 15 2015 1:05 utc | 32

Even if Russia manages to push the terrorists out and/or under ground, it's only temporary. Russia can't maintain that without a permanent, significant presence. Look at Iraq. Look at Afghanistan. Without a significant military footprint, it all falls apart and I would argue it all falls apart eventually even with a significant military footprint. Russia is not immune to mission creep and mission lethargy despite the sycophantic cheerleading that it's invincible.

And no, China would not love to put boots on the ground in Syria. They're quite content to wait to pick carcasses clean like vultures and let others do the heavy lifting. I don't blame them. It's the smart move.

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Oct 15 2015 1:32 utc | 33

Speaking of the Chinese, guess the date of the article from which the quote below was lifted? Liars. It's All Lies. Now that Russia is intervening in Syria militarily, "military action" is the right prescription in Syria. So much for this dweeb's powers of prognostication. Oil didn't go up in price — instead it plummeted severely and the world economy didn't collapse. Zhu Guangyao is out of his league and in way over his head.

China has joined Russia in opposing military strikes on Syria, saying it would push up oil prices and create an economic downturn.

The Chinese intervention came as G20 leaders gathered in Saint Petersburg on Thursday for a summit likely to be dominated by Syria. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is expected to allow the issue on to the agenda for dinner, reflecting the reality that the fate of the world economy is inextricably intertwined with the risk of a Middle East conflagration.

The Chinese deputy finance minister, Zhu Guangyao, told a pre-G20 briefing: "Military action would have a negative impact on the global economy, especially on oil prices – it will cause a hike in the oil price."

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Oct 15 2015 1:46 utc | 34

Report: US, Turkish Intelligence Coordinated ISIL Leader's Transfer to Turkey for Treatment

TEHRAN (FNA)- ISIL Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been transferred to Turkey for treatment through a series of coordination measures by the CIA after the notorious terrorist leader was severely injured in the Iraqi army's airstrike on his convoy in Western Anbar province, media reports disclosed on Wednesday.

"The CIA has drone coordination with the Turkish intelligence organization to transfer al-Baghdadi to Turkey," the Arabic-language al-Manar TV quoted unnamed sources as saying on Wednesday.

The source said that two companions of al-Baghdadi who were also injured in the attack on the ISIL leader's convoy and were captured by the Iraqi forces have confirmed that al-Baghdadi has been injured in the Sunday attack[...]

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Oct 15 2015 2:01 utc | 35

TASS: Russian Northern Fleet Rejects Reports of sending aircraft Carrier to Syria. The Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier will perform planned missions in the Barents Sea http://tass.ru/en/defense/828982

---

I also doubt the "US Strikes Aleppo Power Plant" story. I can't find any good confirmation on it. Any story that originates w Gordon Duff of Veterans Today & then is just repeated only by small sites should be regarded w caution. Veterans Today follows the report w a "Putin comments on the US strike" story which I cannot find anywhere else either.

Posted by: Penelope | Oct 15 2015 2:39 utc | 36

Thanks b. "Syria may become whole again."

Posted by: fairleft | Oct 15 2015 3:14 utc | 37

Chinese lack recent happy war experience, so they are naturally reluctant. The cause does not appeal much to the population. Lastly, they have a lot positive experience of other kind. "Bella gerant alii, tu felix Austria nube – ‘Let others wage war: thou, happy Austria, marry’. This famous saying is invariably quoted when the rise of the Habsburgs is put down to the success of their dynastic marriage policy, [compare: smallish Austria with Burgundian lands gain by marriage (including all Lower Countries), and also Spain, Hungary and Bohemia, creating what for a while was the first power in Europe]. China excels in industrialization and trade.

Many Syrian officers had training in Russia and know Russian, I bet that there are plenty intelligence analysis etc. in Russia who are fluent in Arabic, the links go back more than 50 years. China ... not so much. The youtube link claimed that China is ready to commit their top naval assets, which makes very limited sense in Syria (sure, ferrying weapons helps, and Russians needed air defences before restoring them on the ground). However, if the conflict escalates, say, with brazen supplies of weapons and volunteers (peripatetic jihadists), it would be worthwhile to instill some humility among the Gulf royalty, and the best way I can see is a major humanitarian mission to Yemen, breaking through GCC blockade by navy bristling with rocketry. They would escort merchant ships with food and assorted other articles (aha), install air defences to protect the port (wha!!??) etc. Diplomatically, there could be a discussion that there is really no possibility of solving the Yemen problem while insisting on Hadi as the president (probably loved only by his mother and UEA press).

The blockade of Yemen is brazen piracy, and how the West tries to justify its support? Mostly by saying nothing. Breaking the blockade by gift-laden ships would nicely hark to the time of Zheng He (lhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zheng_He#/media/File:Zheng_He.png). Some risk is there, but with Russian missiles freshly tested, retaliation could be righteous, swift and severe.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 15 2015 3:35 utc | 38

Any more info on how Russian diplomacy quieted things in the south? Do you think they agreed to give the Golan to Israel? That NYT article about plans for settlements and the Genie Oil & Gas drilling operations make it seem like Israel feels confident enough to move in and take over the Golan. The NYT article suggests Israel might be given the green light as a "salve", an ointment to make them feel better after the Iran deal.

Posted by: gemini33 | Oct 15 2015 3:42 utc | 39

I think it was the day before yesterday, I put flightradar24 on and monitored it for awhile. There was a lot of cargo flight activity around Tehran, Baghdad & Najaf, Erbil. There were also more flights across Syrian airspace than I've seen before - a lot of them going ot Beirut. These are all on the radar so nobody was trying to hide them so maybe they're insignificant. I did see the "?" icon pop up once and when I clicked on it it was Russian air force. Then it disappeared quickly but the location was in eastern Syria. North of Damascus but no further north than the center of the country.

It just looked like an abnormally high amount of activity in the region -- it's easy to notice because flights in northern Iraq and Syria air space are very sparse. There's some regular activity around Erbil and Baghdad but compared to the amount of planes in adjacent countries it's very very small.

Posted by: gemini33 | Oct 15 2015 3:54 utc | 40

I think it was the day before yesterday, I put flightradar24 on and monitored it for awhile. There was a lot of cargo flight activity around Tehran, Baghdad & Najaf, Erbil. There were also more flights across Syrian airspace than I've seen before - a lot of them going ot Beirut. These are all on the radar so nobody was trying to hide them so maybe they're insignificant. I did see the "?" icon pop up once and when I clicked on it it was Russian air force. Then it disappeared quickly but the location was in eastern Syria. North of Damascus but no further north than the center of the country.

It just looked like an abnormally high amount of activity in the region -- it's easy to notice because flights in northern Iraq and Syria air space are very sparse. There's some regular activity around Erbil and Baghdad but compared to the amount of planes in adjacent countries it's very very small.

Posted by: gemini33 | Oct 15 2015 3:54 utc | 41

Could it be that dropping tons of weapons for the US and pretending to have delivered 500 tanks (where from? Turkey? hard to believe) for the Saudis is a way to pre-empt future reports in the newspapers that when terrorists stronghold will be taken, the very same equipment will be found?

Posted by: Mina | Oct 15 2015 3:56 utc | 42

b: "After the CIA boss Brennan visited Saudi Arabia last week the Saudis delivered at least 500 U.S. made TOW anti-tank weapons to Syria."

So are you suggesting that those TOW systems made the trip from Saudi Arabia to the frontline rebel positions in Idleb within a week?

That's rather unlikely, isn't it?

Or are you suggesting that the weapons were already pre-positioned (in Turkey, I assume?), and all Brennan did was give the nod to the Saudis to give the nod to the Turks, who then handed over the goodies to the rebels?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Oct 15 2015 3:58 utc | 43

This from antiwar.com reporting on a fox news story that the Cubans could be involved in Syria.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/14/cuban-military-forces-deployed-to-syria-to-operate-russian-tanks-say-sources/

If true, there's nothing like US terrorist proxies to unite countries in a new anti-empire coalition.

The "war on terror" looks like it ends up being, the 'war on terror' of anti-imperialists against the terror of the US

Posted by: tom | Oct 15 2015 4:21 utc | 44

@39 "Do you think they agreed to give the Golan to Israel?"

No, that's simply a Zionist wet-dream.

Putin made a big deal about the sanctity of sovereign states in his UN speech, so agreeing that Israel can "legitimately" carve off a chunk of Syrian territory and swallow it whole is not something that is going to sit well with anyone.

Certainly not with anyone who isn't an Israeli - those dudes always seem to have this quaint notion that they are "owed" something for doing, well, nothing.

I would suggest instead that the message to the Israelis was this: Do Not Even Think About Settling Old Scores With Hezbollah Just Because Their Attention Is Focussed On Syria.

So not so much a "reward" as a "warning".

After all, Putin needs Hezbollah in a way that he definitely doesn't need the IDF.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Oct 15 2015 4:26 utc | 45

@36 penelope.. "I also doubt the "US Strikes Aleppo Power Plant" story." me too..

@42 mina.. any of that is possible.. hard to know until later, maybe..

@45 yeah, right.. that is how i see it too.

Posted by: james | Oct 15 2015 4:39 utc | 46

@Penelope #36

One mustn't believe everything from the web even RT. RT too making mistakes stated China warships now in or heading for Syria. Sorry can't find RT webpage regarding Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and landing craft, the Jinggangshan started by Israel's DEBKAfile.

http://www.debka.com/newsupdate/5640/

(Disclaimer: Watch RT 7/24 on me laptop and dun own TV in the house and depends RT for all my News.)

Below misinformations from Before It News.

150,000 Russian Troops in Syria with Chinese Aircraft Carrier and Iranians Backing Them

http://beforeitsnews.com/politics/2015/10/150000-russian-troops-in-syria-with-chinese-aircraft-carrier-and-iranians-backing-them-2749278.html

RIGHT NOW, 150,000 VOLUNTEER RUSSIAN TROOPS ARE ADVANCING INSIDE SYRIA, THEY ARE BACKED UP ON THE GROUND BY IRAN, AND CHINA HAS AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER FLEET OFF THE COAST BACKING ALL OF THEM UP!

WHERE IS THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA REPORTING ANY OF THAT?

The Mainstream Media (in America that is) is not reporting any of that. Have you stopped to ask yourself why? In the second video below, Craig B. Hulet makes it VERY clear why that information is not being reported here in the U.S. ......

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 15 2015 4:47 utc | 47

telescope @ 12, Thank you. That was very informative. Russia needs to get the Black Sea closed to nonlittoral warships

Posted by: Penelope | Oct 15 2015 4:54 utc | 48

article on isis some here might find informative..
How Isis uses oil to fuel its jihad

Posted by: james | Oct 15 2015 4:55 utc | 49

Cold N. Holdfield @33:

"And no, China would not love to put boots on the ground in Syria. They're quite content to wait to pick carcasses clean like vultures and let others do the heavy lifting. I don't blame them. It's the smart move."

I don't claim any inside info on China's approach to the Middle East, but I do know that this strategy was expertly applied by the US in two world wars...

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 15 2015 4:55 utc | 50

Lone Wolf,
The Asia Times article is baffling me.

"Lavrov issued a call on “all the interested countries to attend the information centre we [Russia] set up with Iraq, Syria, and Iran in Baghdad” Seems to me like a pretty bad idea to have the US share in your intell cuz surely they will let ISIS, et al know what intell you have (& haven't) got.

“We are considering setting up similar coordination centres in other places in this [Middle East] region”.. OK, that's in line w the original concept memo submitted to the UN. Libya, Yemen and Egypt were all mentioned, and it seemed that the Russian plan was to spearhead eradication of terrorism across the middle-east.

This is the part I don't get:
"As Lavrov put it, [to Mohammad of KSA]:
"We [Putin] expressed readiness – readiness that found a reciprocal response – for encouraging our military and Special Forces to start working together as closely as possible so as to erase any doubt as to the fact that the Russian aviation’s targets are really the Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra, and other terrorist groups."

Whaat? As opposed to the targets being what? Russia can't exclude Saudis' proxy, Army of Conquest, right? The Saudis surely are not going to pretend an interest in preserving the Syrian people against Russian bombs. I don't get it; what are the Saudis being reassured about? Or is it just a dignity exercise?

The Russians are master diplomats and I understand they are setting up a working relationship, but I'm missing something here. Can anyone help me?

Thank you Lone Wolf for an interesting link. http://atimes.com/2015/10/russian-bear-roams-arabias-sands-wets-toes-in-bosphorus/

Posted by: Penelope | Oct 15 2015 4:58 utc | 51

this might be criticized but I hope there's some pathway for surrender.. as bad as ISIL and AQ have been, there are probably some that aren't actual terorrizers. Peace through mercy, right?

Posted by: bbbbb | Oct 15 2015 5:03 utc | 52

@10 the kurds are a thorn in everybody's side. I know they've suffered a lot, but they've instigated a lot of this by taking over sunni areas over the past decade. When everything settles down I hope all parties can forge a comprehensive agreement over land rights

Posted by: bbbbb | Oct 15 2015 5:08 utc | 53

@Penelope@36

TASS: Russian Northern Fleet Rejects Reports of sending aircraft Carrier to Syria. The Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier will perform planned missions in the Barents Sea http://tass.ru/en/defense/828982

It will be interesting to dig into why the Russians backtracked on this one, after multilingual publications close to the Russian government, such as Flashnord and Fort Russ stated the opposite. Wonder where the rumor originated, did someone jump the gun? News about the deployment and Russia's Navy denial are on the same date, today.

http://flashnord.com/news/rossiya-napravlyaet-na-borbu-s-islamskim-gosudarstvom-edinstvennyy-avianosec

http://fortruss.blogspot.ru/2015/10/russia-sending-admiral-kuznetsov.html

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Oct 15 2015 5:10 utc | 54

@51 Penelope

"Other terrorist groups" surely covers Army of Conquest. It pretty much includes anyone shooting at Syrian soldiers.

Saudis are desperate to prevent Russo-Iranian alliance. Since they have no chance of winning in Syria anymore, they'll fold their tent as soon as some face-saving solution is found.

Posted by: MMARR | Oct 15 2015 5:11 utc | 55

According to almasdarnews the SAA just started the offensive in Rastan.

Posted by: astabada | Oct 15 2015 5:12 utc | 56

@Penelope@51

Surely there are levels of information/coordination at the joint center, among the members themselves, and the members and outsiders. Russians, Iranians and Syrians, are not about to provide intel to the US/Mossad/KSA, the Iraqis, I don't trust them. The US rejected in principle sharing IS intel with Russia, and more recently refused to host a Russian delegation to deal with the Syrian question. Lavrov already knows there is no danger inviting everybody and their brother, which make the Russians appear conciliatory and friendly, since their invitation will face rejection based on policy and false pride. After all, the Russians didn't notify the US about the creation of the center, it was announced by Iraq's Joint Operations Command.

On Russian agreements with the Saudis, Badhrakumar, who is usually well informed on his articles, didn't seem to have so much insight into the arrangements that were worked out. We will have to wait for more info from that murky cloak and dagger world, in the meantime, your guess is as good as mine.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Oct 15 2015 5:36 utc | 57

b

In your opinion what is the current state of the SAA? Men, morale, materials.

They have been fighting a war of attrition for years and must be tired with many KIA. Are there enough men available to recruit? What about the officer corp? The numbers of militia fighters coming from Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah (who themselves must have significant losses) are rather small totaling some 10-15K fighters.

I saw this link on a post on Col. Lang's site. The article talks about the loss of senior Iranian and Hezbollah commanders in the Syrian war.

http://linkis.com/thedailybeast.com/dKjFH

We will know in the next 2-3 months how well the forces supporting Assad do in the field with Russian air support.

Posted by: ab initio | Oct 15 2015 6:51 utc | 58

From Reuters)
China said Wednesday it had no plans to send its military to Syria to fight with Russian forces after reports in overseas media that it was planning to do so.
Chinese media has picked up Russian and Middle Eastern news reports that China would fight alongside Russia in Syria, and that China’s sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, could participate too.
Chinese media has also described these reports as speculative nonsense
http://atimes.com/2015/10/vietnam-says-chinese-lighthouses-in-disputed-south-china-sea-will-escalate-tension/

They certainly took their time in responding to the press reports. Wonder if that indicates a change of heart?

Posted by: Penelope | Oct 15 2015 7:16 utc | 59

New York City fiscal crisis came to a head in April-May of 1975, just exactly when the Vietnam War ended with the Fall of Saigon. The City simply could not pay its bills. War costs serious money, and this manifests in many ways.

The U.S. project of turning the Middle East into a giant hellhole is presumably costing over a trillion U.S. dollars. So today Zero Hedge reports:

/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Illinois To Delay Pension Payments Amid Budget Woes: "For All Intents And Purposes, We Are Out Of Money Now".
\~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Something is wrong with this country. This MIC thing is nuts. Also, we have to support the endless wars of Israel (but they do have socialized medicine):

/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Economist tallies swelling cost of Israel to US

By David R. Francis, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor December 9, 2002

Since 1973, Israel has cost the United States about $1.6 trillion. If divided by today's population, that is more than $5,700 per person.

This is an estimate by Thomas Stauffer, a consulting economist in Washington.
\~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Our cities are falling apart and crime is now on the increase. In effect we are now back in Vietnam.

Another Vietnam parallel:

/~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lavrov: Unclear what exactly US is doing in Syria & why results so insignificant

14 Oct, 2015

The Russian Foreign Ministry has questioned the effectiveness of the US-led year-long air campaign in Syria, saying it’s unclear “why the results of so many combat sorties are so insignificant.” Failing to curb ISIS, the US has now “adjusted” its program.

“We have very few specifics which could explain what the US is exactly doing in Syria and why the results of so many combat sorties are so insignificant,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Russian channel NTV. “With, as far as I know, 25,000 sorties they [US-led air campaign] could have smashed the entire [country of] Syria into smithereens,” the minister noted.
\~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I call this opulopathy. This is clearly a mental disorder that afflicts individuals who control vast amounts of money. Perhaps these people need to go somewhere for the sake of protecting themselves and others.

Posted by: blues | Oct 15 2015 7:33 utc | 60

@59 p

I think the Chinese'll need their naval fire power closer to home in the event that Obama actually does send a flotilla within their 12 mile exclusionary zone around their South China Sea islands. Actually I dont know if China would fight back even if the US sailed rings around their island, within sight of shore. They still seem to be dreaming of 'win-win' solutions with the butchers of North Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam/Lao/Cambodia, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Yugoslavia (including their own embassy), Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, Syria and assorted smaller African countries. I'm sure I've left some out. Syria/Russia needs help from Iran, not China.

China seems stuck in appeasment mode with the US, yet does seem ready to fight back if obliged to by provocation.

But I think that China is readying its alternative to SWIFT, has no interest in blood and guts warfare, and that any strike it does make against the US will be financial. Let the oligarachs bleed. The Russians, too, may be readying their own financial weapons, “About urgent measures to counter threats to the existence of Russia”.

The concerted effort of the two of them in that arena would/will be devastating. Doesn't sound as though they are ready quite yet - though everyday they do draw closer and closer.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 15 2015 7:47 utc | 61

@60 blues

The opulopaths' bubble needs bursting ... I feel it coming on. Well, I've felt it coming on for years ... but as their behavior becomes ever more mad and more dangerous for everyone else unwillingly involved the people with the pins sidle up closer and closer to the balloon.

And that will be Obama's legacy.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 15 2015 8:05 utc | 62

@11 telescope

That's an interesting map you've linked to, showing the effect reachable radius of Russian cruise missles from the Black and Caspian Seas. Didn't I read that Russian ships replaced the Kermit - I mean Teddy - Roosevelt in the Persian gulf? Interesting mentally to add a third such circle centered over the Gulf.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 15 2015 8:21 utc | 63

Wed Oct 14 Fars News
Iranian, Chinese Military Set to Widen Intelligence Cooperation.

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Iranian and Chinese armies have increased consultations and meetings to boost their cooperation in defensive fields, specially in intelligence sharing.
Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan and Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari held separate meetings with the visiting deputy chief of staff of China's army in Tehran on Wednesday during which both sides underlined the necessity for the development of the two countries' military cooperation.

"During the meeting, reciprocal visits to the two countries' fleet of warships and training centers was agreed," Sayyari told reporters
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940722001372

Posted by: Penelope | Oct 15 2015 8:31 utc | 64

@54 -- study the magician's art of distracting attention.

Good overview, b.

However, there needs to be more thought put into why the US 'giant' (read foreign policy Golem) is being driven to achieve Saudi and Israeli regime objectives (we know ‘how’).

Btw, the south is not so quiet in the lands formally known as Palestine. Things are simmering to a boil: Israeli goons shooting women and children in the streets and random stabbings etc -- and even so called Jews attacking each other in an apparent frenzy of existential fear based on the cut of their cloth. Indeed, it is far from quiet on the southern front -- except of course in the main stream media controlled by the usual suspects.

The details may be unclear but Putin has made the Russian goals quite clear -- peace in the ME:

1) Restore Syria to 'wholeness' and help facilitate whatever changes the Syrian people choose through the democratic process (as distinct from the daemoncratic processes usually used for forced regime change).

2) Maximize the future market potential for Russian exports leading to domestic economic growth via the military industrial complex (a la USA).

3) Maintain and reinforce the land corridors and economic-social infrastructure between Iran and the Mediterranean.

4) Provide a dominant role in any gas transport infrastructure and services into Europe.

5) Undermine and neutralize US and NATO agenda -- including, one would assume, reducing the CIA's illicit Afghan drug business model to fund regime changes outside formal US budget etc.

6) Re-activate the UN as a vehicle for a return to a multi-polar world order.

One very strategic key to all this planned ME 'wholeness' -- and a major pay-off for all the effort and cost of saving Syria -- is likely to be a Russian-led UN Peace Keeping force in the neutral Syrian Golan Heights equipped with S400/S500 pointing in all directions to ensure that nobody wipes anybody 'off the map' -- or put another way, neither Israel nor Iran have justification for any undue and irrational concern about the alleged aggression of the other.

This 'stale-mate' Check-mate provides the right geopolitical and regional environment to justify a long-term Russian position in the Golan which also happens to enable 'protection' of any future gas pipelines across the region to Europe.

Based on military and post-UN geopolitical progress to-date it is not unreasonable to consider scenarios where all post-1967 are returned to 'wholeness' (and certainly the 'farms' to Hezbollah for their help in Syria) as 'possible' and for many also 'preferred'. Based on the King of Jordon's UN speech sandwiched between Obama and Putin his heart lays in this direction and his holy Sharif duty to protect the 3rd holy Al Aqsa mosque site of Islam in Jerusalem.

Egypt is also on side with the Russians taking over the ME Sheriff duties from the demonstrably inept and corrupted US neocon-driven decade of madness. The Russian Orthodox church has asked for and endorsed that Putin/Russia protect the Christians in the ME. That protection may well be extended via UN mandate to all minority groups in the region including Kurd's and Palestinians -- i.e. given that the common enemy of all is largely one hydra-network of terror funded by the Saudi regime (and a few others) and overtly driven by Wahhabi fundamentalism and Zionist agenda.

Demented or not, the "Saudi King Must Go!" will likely rise in volume as the puppet despots in Bahrain and now Yemen fall into the brier-patch of "Women Can Drive" and "Citizens Must Vote" during Mr "Change we can believe in" phase out of the White House.

Bottom-line for the racist Zionist apartheid cult regime known as 'Israel' located on the Lands of Palestine -- it may well be STFU, sit down and work it (peace) out -- OR -- back to the 1967 UN-endorsed borders, chocolates! The medium-term scenario here, on Putin's run, is not a limp 'Camp David' but rather a much more pragmatic 'Camp Sochi' with Uncle Vladimir!

Indeed, “Restore Syria to wholeness” means implanting the yeast of peace in a fragmented and dysfunctional land which, if successful, will propagate into other regional domains. Hence the panic in the ‘Camp of Usual Suspects’ (CUS).

Posted by: doveman | Oct 15 2015 8:37 utc | 65

@65 doveman

Love that kind of talk. We'll see what happens.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 15 2015 8:49 utc | 66

@64 p

So maybe the Chinese will hire Iranian replacements for its non-contribution to the Syrian effort - like the rich Yankees during the American civil war?

Posted by: jfl | Oct 15 2015 8:53 utc | 67

@58 "They have been fighting a war of attrition for years and must be tired with many KIA."

Patrick Bahzad has commented on this over at Pat Lang's web site, and he places it somewhere in the region of 60,000 over four years.

If that's what he says then that's what it is, because he appears to be exceptionally well-informed.

Now 60,000 is a lot, and it would certainly lead to a manpower shortage, but it's not enough to cripple the SAA or cause it to cease to function.

I guess you also need to add the number of soldiers who defected to the "Free Syrian Army", which is a number that I do not know.

But even that's complicated by the fact that a number of those jumped back again - no figures, sorry, just scuttlebutt.

I don't know if anyone knows, though it is no secret that the FSA now exists only in name.

So I think it's fair to say that the Syrian Army is not kaput, and is probably suffering more from the lack of modern equipment than from a lack of manpower. And that equipment issue is certain to be addressed by the Russians.

Plus, of course, when this all started the Syrian Army - and especially its officer ranks - were regarded as a corrupt, inefficient joke even by the standards of the region.

Four years later they are now four-years-battle-hardened, and the top echelon no-hopers are probably either long-gone or long-dead.

The SAA might actually come out of this much stronger than they went in.... provided, of course, that they win.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Oct 15 2015 9:16 utc | 68

@67 -- see "Chinese admiral visits Iran, wants closer defense cooperation"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-china-iran-idUSKCN0S907Q20151015

Posted by: doveman | Oct 15 2015 9:18 utc | 69

Excellent comments by Lone Wolf@22 and guest77@26. I think Russia has quite rightly drawn a line in the sand on Syria. If the US, Saudi and Turkey are allowed to achieve regime change in Syria violently, then not only will they have succeeded in trashing the UN charter and all norms of International law, but they will have given cart blanche to any aggression in the world, like the Saudi aggression against Yemen. The Russians have a long association with Syria but so far as I know, no military alliance. The Iranians do have a military alliance with Syria and with a population of 80 million could easily supply the required manpower[if required]. Time will tell. One thing is for certain this war is existential for Syria, Hezbollah, Iraq and Iran. They know it, that is why they will not lose.

Posted by: harry law | Oct 15 2015 9:34 utc | 70

"The invaders from the north will simply retreat back to Turkey and when they and their masters see time fit, will attack again from Turkey. To me this looks like war by attrition with no end in sight unless Turkish artillery, air support and the jihadi shock troops are in some way put out of operation which will not happen.

Posted by: Hairy | Oct 14, 2015 5:19:06 PM | 9"

-That is what the Americans and israel are hoping for but keeping standing armies of death squad militia´s on one´s own soil is a very costly business. Impatience among "Sultan" Erdogan´s freaks will eventually backfire, as it did in Ankara recently.

Posted by: sahkim | Oct 15 2015 9:43 utc | 71

Willy2 @29
I think the CIA runs KSA foreign policy. Goes back to when Prince Bandar was ambassador to US 20 something years ago.

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 15 2015 10:01 utc | 72

Syrian army and Russian jets target rebel towns north of Homs

BEIRUT/AMMAN - Syrian troops and their allies, backed by Russian jets, attacked rebel-held towns north of the city of Homs on Thursday, targeting a long-held and strategic enclave of opposition to President Bashar al-Assad.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-mideast-crisis-syria-homs-idUSKCN0S90JG20151015

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 15 2015 10:04 utc | 73

as b predicted (from the same link above)
The army operations include a campaign to recapture rebel-held land in Hama, Idlib and Latakia provinces in the northwest. Regional officials have also said the army, backed by Iranian reinforcements, is preparing for a ground operation around Aleppo city, close to the Turkish border.

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 15 2015 10:10 utc | 74

@67 dm

That's the same line that p linked to. There's a story on Iran expanding her merchant fleet as well

He [Mohammad Saeidi, the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL] said a series of major newbuilding contracts will be signed in a matter of weeks as Iran taps significant funds built up in China, South Korea, Japan and India through trading during sanctions, the Lloyd’s List reported.

Iran will use these funds to place newbuilding orders, predominantly in China, where Saeidi said existing relationships with China and Chinese banks will allow IRISL to place favorable orders at Chinese yards.

Perhaps they will use some of those built-up funds for warships as well? Iran has the armed forces onsite to do the heavy-lifting against al-CIAda, and I imagine China will use every means possible to encourage Iran to do so - rather than get its own hands dirty there. Who can blame them?

The idea is to seal the Turkish boder, exterminate al-CIAda in Syria, then head to Geneva to bargain from the cat-bird's seat. The clock is ticking, maybe Syria/Russia can do it with just the Kurds, maybe Iran will be called upon to provide peacekeeepers leading upto and after the sit-down? I don't know. I think this meeting is the closest that China is going to get to Syria.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 15 2015 10:11 utc | 75

This could be the turning point:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0S81A320151015
~~~
Iran has sent thousands of additional troops into Syria in recent days to bolster one offensive that is underway in Hama province and in preparation for another in the Aleppo area, two senior regional officials told Reuters.

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 15 2015 10:25 utc | 76

Ash Carter,[General 'Buck' Turgidson] “We will take all necessary steps to deter Russia’s malign and destabilizing influence, coercion and aggression”. Don,t those Ruskies know we are 'the shining city on a hill', 'the exceptional Nation' and the indispensable nation' and the 'masters of the universe'. What gobshites these US politicians are. The Russians need to destroy all terrorists in Syria. If the CIA, MI6 or Mossad get in the way by helping the terrorists. kill them as well.

Posted by: harry law | Oct 15 2015 10:28 utc | 77

@77 of

Islamic State militants battled rival insurgent groups on Wednesday north of the city of Aleppo, where officials say the Syrian army is preparing an offensive of its own backed by Iranian soldiers and Russian jets.

I take that to mean that SAA was cleaning the '"rival insurgent groups'" (al-CIAda's) clock so Da'esh stepped to help them out ...

The Observatory reported fighting between Islamic State fighters and government forces trying to advance towards an air base besieged by the jihadist group in Aleppo province.

... just as 'the observatory' reports concerning the airbase in Aleppo ...

Iran has sent thousands of additional troops into Syria in recent days to bolster one offensive that is underway in Hama province and in preparation for another in the Aleppo area, two senior regional officials told Reuters.

... 'Regional officials'? Officials of which regime? Syria? al-CIAda? Da'esh?

If the Iranians are there in force b will have the goods on that in Part II?

Posted by: jfl | Oct 15 2015 11:05 utc | 78

So a guy in Texas made the map, huh? Strafor's in Texas, Austin to be precise, so maybe it was a "guy" who works for Statfor. Either way, it's nice to know Russia's strategy and objectives, even though I was told in no uncertain terms last week that we don't really know and cannot know Russia's strategy and objectives, are so easily deciphered. It makes the job of those who would be inclined to counter said strategy that much easier. Arm chair military strategists don't have to work too hard to foil Putin's grand plans, on full display to the world, in Syria or anywhere else for that matter. Thanks guys for making it so easy, and on top of that, it's free. What's not to like?

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Oct 15 2015 11:06 utc | 79

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/15/iran-reveals-huge-underground-missile-base-with-broadcast-on-state-tv
Military leader boasts on film of ‘new and advanced generation’ of missiles that can ‘erupt like a volcano from the depth of earth’(video)

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 15 2015 11:35 utc | 80

Unsupported by evidence, imperialist propaganda blithely matches the Saudi/ISIS paranoid and basically genocidal take: Putin, champion of the Shias.

(OT)'Liberal' imperialist propaganda revives WWII revanchism if it will serve the cause: Vladimir Putin's visit to Japan postponed indefinitely [subheading:] Moscow’s hardline stance on disputed island group torpedoes bilateral talks with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe that were set for later this year.

Posted by: fairleft | Oct 15 2015 11:52 utc | 81

@81 fl

This is the second time the US has forced Japan to postpone the talks ... this time its Syria, last time ... was it Ukraine? I've forgotten. The US does not want anyone. and especially not Japan, cutting deals to lessen tensions with Russia ...

But Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said Tokyo would continue to explore the possibility of a visit this year, as agreed between Putin and Abe at last November’s Apec summit in Beijing.

... it's not Japan it's the USA. All of its vassals live in fear of the empire. Disgusting. It was good to see the Germans out in force, anti-TPP. Now to suit actions to words throughout the empire and to overthrow the handful of oligarchs who have stolen power in our countries! We have the power! They are the frauds! If we will just act on our certain knowledge of our own power it will be an occasion of joy to clean the Augean Stables, as someone here on this list described the task before us.

The Guardian is a small vendor of fishwrap for little people to wrap their tiny fish in. Especially since they've been 'bitch slapped' by the Tories for publishing Snowden. They are every bit as disgusting as the Empire State Times or the Amazon Post.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 15 2015 12:46 utc | 82

Cold H in #33: "Even if Russia manages to push the terrorists out and/or under ground, it's only temporary. Russia can't maintain that without a permanent, significant presence. Look at Iraq. Look at Afghanistan."

Totally flawed comparison. You forget about several millions of Syrians, who are the best boots on the ground you can wish for - it's their country.

Both Iraq and Afgh. are foreign regime-change-rob-all-oil occupations with zero domestic support, while the situation is Syria is pretty much the exact opposite. Your comparison is like comparing apples to, dunno, mountains.

Posted by: zedz | Oct 15 2015 13:07 utc | 83

It was good to see the Germans out in force, anti-TPP.

Yeah, I'm anti-TPP also and anti-"Free Trade" in general, but not for the same reasons the Germans are. Germans pretend to be all Green, but then we see that they're cheaters just like Russia and all the rest. The latest scandal with Volkswagen cheating on American emissions tests is no doubt just the tip of Germany's cheating iceberg. That's a funny shade of Green, Germany. You've been exposed for the frauds you are.

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Oct 15 2015 13:07 utc | 84

WTF....Obie really liking wars.

Opening yet another front:

US Deploying 300 Troops to Cameroon to Help Fight Boko Haram

In a War Powers Act notification letter addressed to the speaker of the House of Representatives, President Obama says their mission will be to “conduct airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations in the region.”

The forces will be armed, but only for the purpose of providing their own security and not for offensive military operations. The forces will stay in the country until they are no longer needed, according to the letter.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-deploying-300-troops-cameroon-help-fight-boko-214004874--abc-news-topstories.html

Posted by: shadyl | Oct 15 2015 13:26 utc | 85

@33 Cold

Even if Russia manages to push the terrorists out and/or under ground, it's only temporary. Russia can't maintain that without a permanent, significant presence. Look at Iraq. Look at Afghanistan.

Not necessarily. The US openly supporting Al Qaeda in Syria is not a popular decision in the US. Iraq and Afghanistan insurgents had substantial aid provided just like ISIS has now in both Syria and Iraq. That aid is what keeps the conflict going. End it and any real insurgency is over. What's left can be controlled by police. The Gulf states can be controlled by either economic sanctions or military support to Yemen rebels or opposition groups within their own borders. Most lame duck presidents want quiet during their last 2 years. I think Obama backs off for now and let's the next one in decide how to handle it. That would give the Russian/Iran/Syria coalition enough time to clean things up now and make any new threat that much harder to restart.
Just look at the domestic front in the US with Trump saying let the Russians kill Al Qaeda and Clinton / Fiorina saying challenge the Russians even if it means WW3. Pick your poison.

Posted by: anon48 | Oct 15 2015 13:27 utc | 86

zedz @83 said: Totally flawed comparison.

No, I don't think so. In all cases, Russia's latest exploits in Syria included, the genie has been loosed from the bottle. Genies don't go back in bottles once they're loosed. Or perhaps you believe unicorns really do exist if you think you can get a genie back in its bottle. Syria may be an orange and Iraq and Afghanistan an apple and a banana respectively, but they're all fruits, so whereas they're all distinct, they also share a great deal in common, in particular how all of them will chew up and spit out a foreign presence no matter how magnanimous that foreign presence pretends to be. The Middle East doesn't throw rose petals at the feet of soldiers from an occupying foreign force and a significant occupying force is what it will take for Putin to keep Syria quasi stable and Assad in power for any length of time. When will they learn?

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Oct 15 2015 13:30 utc | 87

"Military leader boasts on film of ‘new and advanced generation’ of missiles that can ‘erupt like a volcano from the depth of earth’(video)

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 15, 2015 7:35:18 AM | 80"

Those are 70's tech from our POV, a joke for any half-way modern missile defense worth its name. And also well known to most intel groups. Just ask yourself why the Saudis & friends are now buying Iron Dome and the rest of connected toys from Israel.

Posted by: zedz | Oct 15 2015 13:30 utc | 88

"The latest scandal with Volkswagen cheating on American emissions tests is no doubt just the tip of Germany's cheating iceberg. That's a funny shade of Green, Germany. You've been exposed for the frauds you are."

Boy is it fun to read stuff written by clueless people...

VW cheated nobody, they did the customers a favor by reducing consumption of both oil and "AdBlue" urea-additive. All the emissions laws are unrealistic fraud and all the tests are made just to sell it as something legit. Every government and every manufacturer has always known this. The rest is just for show.

To give you a technical background, a little comparison: a regular diesel engine will produce say about 1l of NOx per 100km. In the test, it has to produce a fraction of that, say a quarter of a little shot glass. VW cheated there, they actually produce a full shot glass. Compare that to the realistic 1l and then you will understand the extent of the "fraud".

Especially unnerving that it comes from a country where everyone drives big-ass SUV's that consume and pollute like thrice more than the worst VW and are no subject to all these tests to begin with (they are on paper, but they "prove" themselves, as opposed to foreign manufacturers). Also funny that the first suits for "pollution" are coming from a freaking *fracking* area in Texas. It can't get any crazier than that.

This "affair" has an interesting timing though, it all came up just a few days after VW opened a new factory in Russia.

Of course also the increased sales of modern city cars from abroad is a headache for the demolished and decimated american car industry, that can barely produce cars on par with 70's european models. Simple good old protectionism.

It is just a part of the economic war being waged against Germany (and Europe) by the US. Also of course milking the cash wherever possible, be it from european banks or industry or whatever - read the effin news from time to time. Anyone with more than two brain cells sees it as such, the rest is just nonsense propaganda. It is of course a matter of politics, but if it was me running VW, I'd pack my bags and completely leave the (already doomed) US market.

Posted by: zedz | Oct 15 2015 13:51 utc | 89

@ Cold in 87: sorry but comparing an occupation against the will of the locals with the syrian situation is just stupid. Again: one is a foreign occupation, the other one is aid to the local patriots against mostly foreign terrorists. VERY different.

Also, fluff PR-talk aside, what makes you think that Russians really want to keep Assad "in power"? They just want to keep him until the war is over and a transition can be made.

Feel free to prove me wrong, but with actual facts instead of your wishful thinking.

Posted by: zedz | Oct 15 2015 13:58 utc | 90

Why doesn't Russia just negotiate to replace Assad with a different pro-Russian democracy? That way the CIA backed rebels would join with the Syrian army to attack ISIS and Al Nusra.

Seems a waste of military resources when diplomacy can turn an enemy into a friend.

I means its not like Russia is fond of Assad. They just want their own interests in Syria protected.

There is a way to do that AND not have to fight the US backed Rebels.

Posted by: Steve | Oct 15 2015 14:38 utc | 91

@63 jfl

You are right. As soon as Russians fired their cruise missiles, the Pentagon pulled its last aircraft carrier from the Persian Gulf, for the first time in many years. Americans will probably insist that it's just a coincidence, but I doubt it. The situation in the Gulf didn't change for the better. The only radical change is that the whole area is now within a strike range of Russia's Caspian flotilla. And as those missiles can be tipped with nuclear warheads, even one successful hit will sink just about anything.

Contrary to the rhetoric coming out of Washington ("we are spoiling for the fight with the Russians, and are ready to get into the ring at a drop of a hat"), the body language tells completely different story, namely of extreme aversion to even a hint of a real war.

Posted by: telescope | Oct 15 2015 14:49 utc | 92

z @ 89 said: "It is just a part of the economic war being waged against Germany (and Europe) by the US."

Absolutely, and other nations also. The US and their minions have become the greatest "Psy-ops" operation the world has ever known. All, to capture global market share.

" It's just business, get over it!" ( quote from Chipnik)

Posted by: ben | Oct 15 2015 14:50 utc | 93

@91 "Why doesn't Russia just negotiate to replace Assad with a different pro-Russian democracy? That way the CIA backed rebels would join with the Syrian army to attack ISIS and Al Nusra"

Probably because the CIA-backed jihadis will never negotiate with the Russians until their lives are on the line.

Posted by: MMARR | Oct 15 2015 14:55 utc | 94

It's quite surprising just how quickly this Iran led Offensive stalled, less than one week and they are now waiting for reserve mercenary forces who hopefully have the will to fight, this is much like what happened in Tikrit.

Qassem Soleimani should be replaced with a military leader who doesn't have a record of consistent failure and killing off his own troops and then taking selfie pictures for his fans at home.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Oct 15 2015 14:57 utc | 95

@91 "Why doesn't Russia just negotiate to replace Assad with a different pro-Russian democracy? That way the CIA backed rebels would join with the Syrian army to attack ISIS and Al Nusra"

"Probably because the CIA-backed jihadis will never negotiate with the Russians until their lives are on the line."

-----------

The FSA has already said that they are uncomfortable fighting along side Al-Nusra.

And the US has already asked Russia if it will put pressure on Assad, while the US puts pressure on the FSA, to reach a peace deal.

----------

Again. It's a total waste of military resources to fight an enemy when diplomacy is a viable option.

Posted by: Steve | Oct 15 2015 15:04 utc | 96

These perfectly round red circles don't take into the account the Earth's curvature. Once that's included, the strike zone covers all of Europe, save for Ireland and Portugal. So in reality the implications for the West are even more profound. telescope at 11.

I can’t comment on those circles, haven’t studied it up.

The Mercator Projection, that we accepted in school and see in practically all the maps in atlases and on the intertubes, makes the US+Canada, Europe, Russia and Greenland far ‘larger’ than they are. Larger in the sense of area, simple to understand.

The Peters Projection (which represents land mass area) evidences a different figuration.

One map:

http://www.exposingtruth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Peters-Projection-Map.jpg?973a5c

Russia is not a huge land mass - it is a strip in Northern territory. (say…)

The real size of Africa:

http://static02.mediaite.com/geekosystem/uploads/2010/10/true-size-of-africa.jpg

This is not just some picky quibble about ‘metrics’, these are the representations that shape and influence the W (US) - since 1569. Probably deliberately so.

How can ppl analyse world events without a correct (or several diff, ‘correct’ versions) of a map of the place?

I understand that discussing the nut-job Erdogan’s mind-set and options is more interesting, for sure.

Posted by: Noirette | Oct 15 2015 15:05 utc | 97

@96
"Again. It's a total waste of military resources to fight an enemy when diplomacy is a viable option."

How is it a waste of anything for Moscow? Russian presence in the Middle East keeps oil price $10 higher than it would be otherwise, and brings additional $20B to the Russian treasury. At max they'll spend $3B on bombing campaign, so, if anything, this war is vastly profitable for them.

With regard to "Americans putting pressure on FSA", Russians must think that they can apply that pressure much better. They'll enter into the negotiations when Assad's position is more favorable, and the FSA is far less smug than they've been up to now.

Posted by: MMARR | Oct 15 2015 15:22 utc | 98

re 95

It's quite surprising just how quickly this Iran led Offensive stalled, less than one week

Yes, that's what the Neocons are claiming, so at least we know what your sources are. It's a very primitive understanding of military action.

I agree with b that if they have any sense, the offensive will be taking it slowly. It is relatively mountainous territory, and you wouldn't expect a big bang offensive (which is apparently what you think they ought to be doing - big bang, and big losses).

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 15 2015 15:22 utc | 99

thanks b that was very informative and apologies for the OT but OTs are the standard now

Posted by: Noirette | Oct 15 2015 15:31 utc | 100