Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 26, 2015

Syria Turns The Corner

From Elijah J. Magnier's latest report:

...
The deployment of forces from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah along with the Syrian Army aims to recover key and strategic cities and areas under the control of al-Qaeda and ISIS in the first place. Damascus gave Hezbollah 75 tank to become part of this organized- irregular organization. It is the first Hezbollah armored brigade composed of new T-72 and T-55 tanks to support the group’ Special Forces on the ground.

The source ended: “The direct Russian intervention and involvement in the Syrian war was decided after Turkey’s violation of the undeclared red lines by giving facilities and supporting al-Qaida and its allies to enter Syria into Kessab and later to Idlib provoking the Russian bear who believed that national interests are threatened. The lost of Idlib upset the battle balance in all of Syria. Russia and Iran informed Turkey that such a support will have serious consequences and that Iran and Russia’s national security have been put in jeopardy. After having seen the reaction on the ground and the direct intervention of Russia and Iran, Turkish President’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Assad could be part of the future of Syria. It is a kind of late apology for the strategic mistake that needs to be rectified now. Turkey’s wrong move in Idlib led even the United States and Europe very close to chanting: Long Live President Assad.

Israel has been told to go back into its corner and to shut up. It has no longer any role in Syria. Any further intervention by air, sea or on the ground would lead to harsh responses. Natanyahoo will comply. He understands that the Russian support for the Syrian government is unwavering:

Sayyed Nasrallah considered that Russia's support to President Bashar Al-Assad is inevitable, revealing that "even when Iran proposed finding a substitute for President Al-Assad, Russia refused."

Jordan has already pulled support for the southern mercenary flank which failed in its attacks on Deraa. The U.S. military now admits, after prior denials, that its "vetted" mercenaries gave weapons and other supplies to al-Qaeda. That fact is another argument against the various Gulf paid, hawkish "experts" who want to continue the war on Syria. The serious folks have lost all confidence in their judgement. The hapless CentCom commander General Lloyd Austin will be the fall guy for their failed strategy.

The wannabe Sultan in Ankara started to change his language but will have to do much more. Should he be stupid enough to continue to supply Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, the Kurdish PKK -with which he is unnecessarily at war within Turkey- may suddenly find an excellent supply source for some serious anti-tank missiles and other goodies. The Turkestan Islamic Party, Uighur Islamists who were smuggled by Turkey from China to Syria, now trains child soldiers in Idlib. Does Erdogan believe that China will ignore them? Or will it rather send its navy and a special force brigade to eradicate that looming danger? Erdogan pissed off Russia, China and, with his war against Kurds, also the United States. All at the same time. You don't mess with all three superpowers at once without serious personal consequences.

The collapse of the Syrian government would be a disaster for everyone. Erdogan and his "western" friends made fools of themselves with their childish "Assad must go" blathering. With the grown ups taking over this nonsense has now, hopefully, come to an end.

Posted by b on September 26, 2015 at 5:50 UTC | Permalink

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Let us hope that this article turns out to be true. It is high time that the Middle East get back to some level of order after so many years of Chaos. IMO this shows just how desperate the moneyed global elite are to cause this level of destruction.

Posted by: Peter B. | Sep 26 2015 7:03 utc | 1

Turkey's policy not so long ago was zero problems with its neighbors, now they have problems with three superpowers AND most of their neighbors. Heck of a job Erdo. Turkey and US think there are good terrorists and bad terrorists, the good ones further the west's geostrategic aims of hegemony in the region, hence General Petraus support to AlQaeda and affiliates in Syria. All too clever by half, as anyone with half a brain or with an ounce of common sense must realize. This last sentence does not apply to the US political class, who where dumbfounded when their support for the Islamist's in Afghanistan in the 80's back fired on 9/11.
Once that border with Turkey is sealed it will be all downhill for the head choppers.

Posted by: harry law | Sep 26 2015 8:50 utc | 2

- I want an S-300 for Christmas from Putin-Claus, and I will immediately deliver it to the Palestinians.

- If Putin delivers the S-300 to Hezbollah, then the Israeli terrorist state will be shitting bricks.

- I just can't get past the idea that the evil US Empire sees the Syrian collapse as crucial to its domination plans, and which will immediately be followed with an all out attack on Hezbollah as the last remaining stronghold in that region next to Israel.

Isn't it truly amazing to watch military firepower change the political Geographic dynamics.

Posted by: tom | Sep 26 2015 8:51 utc | 3

A few thoughts on Russia and Syria.

-- Putin is building a force to supply a southern front should he pursue, or be cornered into, an altercation with Turkey. This could be five years or five minutes away.

-- once Russian intelligence settles on two or three fortified towns used as common and control centres, expect them to be flattened, Grozny style.

-- the zionist alarm must be in overdrive at the counterweight to their policy of regional harassment. Moscow must have plans to wallop Israel if provoked.

-- its a bit disconcerting to ponder yet more escalation.

Posted by: yodahere | Sep 26 2015 9:12 utc | 4

4

"This last sentence does not apply to the US political class, who where dumbfounded when their support for the Islamist's in Afghanistan in the 80's back fired on 9/11."

Neither Northern Alliance, nor the KSA Taliban, had anything whatsoever to do with 9/11.

Nice try.

For the Marcos-Khashoggi-Bush-Carlucci-Vulcans-Project Hammer thread leading up to 1991, and later, 9/11, follow the money

Posted by: AHammer | Sep 26 2015 9:22 utc | 5


– Areas of influence, deployment and tasks are distributed between Russia, Syrian Forces, Hezbollah and Iran.
– Russia will be incharge of Lattakia, Hama and Aleppo
– Iran will be in charge of the protection of Damascus, Daraa, Quneitra and the Golan to the Israeli borders
– Hezbollah will be deployed on the fronts with al-Qaeda and the “Islamic State” group
– Hezbollah is forming the first new armored brigade composed of 75 Tanks newly received

On board Chinese amphibious assault warship Jing Gangshan soon in Syria are 1,000 strong marines where will they be deployed?

Posted by: Jack Smith | Sep 26 2015 9:30 utc | 6

Kerry, etc really pushing hard already for negotiating. You don't suppose by month's end they'll be pushing for ceasefire to save some of their mercenaries?

---
Is this a trial baloon to see how this can be spun?
Giving Up the Global-Cop Badge
September 24, 2015

Official Washington is fuming over Russia’s expanded military role in helping Syria fight the Islamic State and Al Qaeda (as if the U.S. has been doing such a crack job). Instead, the U.S. should retreat from the unpopular job of global policeman, says ex-CIA official Graham E. Fuller.

By Graham E. Fuller [of Tsarnaev bros fame]
Washington has jealously guarded the role of global policeman for over half a century. But is the game still worth the candle?

This souped-up security role is likewise the chosen instrument for explicit assertion of American global dominance, or “global leadership” — nominally giving us the dominant voice in determining the “architecture of the global order.” Those whose actions defy that architecture have been labeled “rogue.”
[unusually frank] https://consortiumnews.com/2015/09/24/giving-up-the-global-cop-badge/

You can bet US is not going to "give up its policeman's role" anywhere East of the Caspian.

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 9:56 utc | 7

So where's CSTO? Surely they are in there somewhere?

Erdogan, I have personally thought for some time is unstable in his noggin. He has been advised to get help w uncontrolled anger which he sometimes displays in public. It did tickle me when he described Assad as a dictator.

Here are my last two file entries on him; he's a nut:

8/13/15 the internet is censored; the government has abused its power by stopping corruption investigations conducted against its members and their families; it has punished the police and the judiciary that led these investigations; minorities have no rights, except the three designated minorities in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne; the Erdoğan government is holding hundreds of political prisoners (mainly senior officers guilty of having contacted the Chinese Army, opposition politicians, journalists and lawyers); torture is widespread, arbitrary detention and extrajudicial killings are legion.


8/5/15 As for Erdogan, he is now in the manic phase of a berserk rampage. He has announced that a peace process with the PKK Kurds will henceforth be impossible. Erdogan is also demanding that his regime acquire the capability of jailing members of the parliamentary opposition, despite the fact that the Turkish Constitution expressly provides ironclad immunity for these elected officials. Erdogan is of course reacting to the landmark success of the ethnic Kurdish party HDP in the elections last spring. [Also many Kurds run as independents] The HDP got 13% of the votes and 80 of 550 seats in the Turkish parliament. The overall result of this election deprived the Erdogan-Davutoglu party of the seats needed to unilaterally dictate changes in the Constitution, a process which Erdogan wanted to use to concentrate virtually total power in his own hands. Knowledgeable observers have pointed out that Kurds make up between 18% and 20%, and perhaps even more, of the Turkish population of about 74 million. The Kurds are heavily concentrated in the southeast of the country. It is no exaggeration to say that Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman chimera is generating the very real threat of civil war. Civil war in Turkey would have the most devastating regional and global consequences. Erdogan must either be neutralized or ousted.


Sorry no links, wd've been local mid-east papers.

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 10:07 utc | 8

the Erdoğan government is holding hundreds of political prisoners (mainly senior officers guilty of having contacted the Chinese Army, opposition politicians, journalists and lawyers); torture is widespread, arbitrary detention and extrajudicial killings are legion.

=======
This seems to be a reference to the Turkish Govt attempting to purge the NATO 5th columnist Heroin&Terror gang Ergenekon that has infiltrated Turk military.

Very peculiar misresentation there, by "Penelope"

Posted by: collar | Sep 26 2015 11:04 utc | 9

B,

We will discern real US intentions when we hear US proposals for freezing the fighting. If the proposals call for safe zones in Aleppo, Idlib and the south we will know that the US is still intrumentalizing al Qaeda for imperial ends. If the US agrees to a Syrian army assault on all jihadist zones we will know that a major turn has occurred. In other words if you want to know US policy follow the military conflict.

Posted by: H | Sep 26 2015 13:03 utc | 10

Collar, there is no "Heroin&Terror gang Ergenekon that has infiltrated Turk military" except in RTE's devious head...

He created that "gang" out of nowhere when he needed it and decided that they were finally innocent when he needed good relationships with the army had to be restored (after unnecessarily crippling it).

A couple of days ago a French and German "provocateurs/foreign spies" have been arrested in Turkey... Half the Turkish press is talking about the efforts undertaken by European countries to destabilize poor Turkey (the RTE half of the press of course)...

I personally know the "French agent" who is in jail now and should be expelled in a few days... And of course she is no agent at all but a school teacher dumb enough to help Syrian refugees.

http://www.sanluisobispo.com/2015/09/23/3821574/1-french-1-german-woman-detained.html

Posted by: sysati | Sep 26 2015 13:24 utc | 11

Debka just reported that "the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning-CV-16 docked at the Syrian port of Tartus, accompanied by a guided missile cruiser."

Posted by: jaqwith | Sep 26 2015 13:44 utc | 12

Hezbollah now has tanks! That is what is known as blowback! How do you like them apples, Milketoastsky?

Posted by: Yonatan | Sep 26 2015 14:10 utc | 13

@12 H @15 jaqwith

If what jaqwith's link reports is for real, the situation in Syria will be sorted out by the 28th and it won't make any difference what the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate has to say.

Nice play in the US by Xi ... playing win-win good cop to Putin's tough cop. I think that on the scales of anyone within range of ISIS/Daesh ... anyone in Eurasia certainly ... Russia and China are the new leaders of the free world.

Posted by: jfl | Sep 26 2015 14:18 utc | 14

Gives the G-2 moniker a whole different spin, doesn't it? A whole new frame of reference. The brand new ex-global hegemon is left to pivot in circles at center court.

As Penelope, still pining for Ulysses, points out above @9, Graham Fuller has even 'jumped ship'. Right. Attempting to put The Company ahead of the curve, and not sink with the ship is more like it.

Posted by: jfl | Sep 26 2015 14:26 utc | 15

Virginia State Senator Dick Black told RT “It is my hope and prayer that the United States wakes up and says it is time to end this slaughter. It is time to stop trying to topple regimes, bring order to the Middle East [and] stop the bloodshed. If we stop training jihadists and arming jihadists, the war will end.” http://www.rt.com/usa/316558-us-training-jihadists-dick-black/

Posted by: harry law | Sep 26 2015 14:59 utc | 16

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-marines-and-iranian-revolutionary-guardsmen-build-a-protectorate-in-western-syria/

It's just the beginning of the end game.

#19 Thanks that's one brave US Senator.

Posted by: jo6pac | Sep 26 2015 15:04 utc | 17

Israel has been told to go back into its corner and to shut up.

Absolutely. And they will stop meddling. That is totally clear. I like it. This has consequences for the US attitude as well.

In my previous posts I outlined how some of this was taking shape (It began with Iran back into the fold, but I am repeating myself, argh.) So let me state it once again, and by now it is plain to see, there is international agreement that the Syria débacle must now come to an end. Putin is serious about it, many have caved, or will.

The possible exceptions: US liberal interventionists and neo-cons will make a lot of angry noise but end up by toeing the line (thus lowering their creds on everything). KSA is in very deep economic trouble, facing enormous difficulties at home (see amongst others the 700 pilgrim deaths and the ridiculous statements of princes, the low oil prices that are killing the budget and may soon lead to social strife..), and in a bloody ‘local’ war, Yemen, which looks more like desperation than any rational calculation, even if backed by the US.

Turkey is a wild card as Erdogan is power-hungry, stupid, and delusional in his own way (see Penelope @ 10, ‘nuts’), see b’s post for coverage of that.

Turkey's policy not so long ago was zero problems with its neighbors, now they have problems with three superpowers AND most of their neighbors. harry law @ 4. Yup.

Btw, Turkey is in part responsible for the ‘migrant’ crisis which has ‘woken up’ (or provided an excuse) for Europe to collaborate to work to end the horrific murderous Syria mess, as a large part, even maybe most, of the ‘Syrians’ (real or fake) who ‘swamped / entered’ the EU were in camps in Turkey where their existence was supreme misery - not allowed to work, not afforded any status, etc., no way out, just parked for ever and ever. The Syrians did better in Lebanon and Jordan. Not good but more friendly.

Back to Putin. I can’t speak to the military aspect. But it is clear that Russia’s efforts are for a large part diplomatic (aka strong-arming in the corridors of power), that is, to try and stop support for ISIS at the root. Which is the first thing to do….



Posted by: Noirette | Sep 26 2015 15:18 utc | 18

jaqeith 15: a score for Al Masdar News, they knew it few days back, from SAA sources. This would be a big change in Chinese behavior, and overseas engagement. For years, the idea that was making increasing sense was what I would call "Eurasian Monroe conflicts", Eurasian problems solved without outside help, which only messes things up. That said, there are many local conflicts that impede cooperations, like China-Japan, Korea-Japan, Korea-Korea, China-countries of South China Sea, India-Pakistan, GCC-Iran etc. But the triangle Russia-Iran-China, while hard to assemble, is powerful indeed, it has weapons, men and money. Leadership can waste all that, but it seems that it currently rests with rather sober guys who are not beholden to unnecessary illusions

So-called "Sunni Axis" is quite feeble by comparison. (Who would not?)

It seems that the strategic directions that were selected are two prongs that could, if successful, cut ISIS holding into three pieces. This is a tall order, especially on east Aleppo front, but it would be a huge game changer. How hard it is? Al Masdar News reported two and "half" villages liberated fro Isis, but two of them were taken by Isis just few days earlier. Palmyra advances are also far from "mapped and official". But the Chinese have yet to bring their hardware to Syria, and Russians are still unpacking -- and they will bring more, so the immediate effect is psychological. Defying an emperor is something done in history on regular basis, but three emperors at once? That hardly ever last a long time.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 26 2015 15:19 utc | 19

Collar, there is no "Heroin&Terror gang Ergenekon that has infiltrated Turk military" except in RTE's devious head...


Posted by: sysati | Sep 26, 2015 9:24:17 AM | 11

You believe whatever you waant to, but in the mean time . . .

Ergenekon is an organisation in Turkey which from time to time commits acts of terrorism and which from time to time carries out fascist coups. It has been linked to the Turkish military.

- Turkish and other media have reported that Mossad has supported Ergenekon.
Mossad implicated in a coup plot in Turkey.)

- There have also been reports that the CIA has supported Ergenekon.
Gladio-style terror in Istanbul, New York, Jakarta ...

- Ergenekon has been linked to heroin smuggling from Afghanistan through Turkey.
Deep State Coup Averted in Turkey - by Christopher Deliso

Posted by: Collar | Sep 26 2015 15:43 utc | 20

Washington Post, OKLAHOMA CITY — Donald Trump accused his Republican presidential rivals on Friday night of wanting to "start World War III over Syria," and suggested that the United States should instead let Russia deal with the problem.

Trump has recently faced criticism for not providing details on what sort of foreign policy positions he would take as president. That lack of specifics is purposeful and strategic, Trump said during a 50-minute speech at the Great State Fair of Oklahoma on Friday night. He said Republicans who publicly share their strategic foreign policy plans are "crazy."

======

Pretty astute, I would say: criticize fellow Republicans as idiots on foreign policy, using convincing examples like Syria, and refusing to tell anything else. And the "serious candidates" like Bush, Rubio and Fiorina will go after him, and that may be a way to restore his previous standing in the polls. Trump is often obnoxious, but also the only GOP candidate with something similar to a brain.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 26 2015 16:02 utc | 21

It seemed inconceivable that China would get drawn into the Syrian war just a few months ago. Perhaps they view it as a necessary antidote to Turkey supporting Uigher fighters in Idlib. Maybe China is still smarting after being bamboozled into supporting the UNSC resolution to give air cover to the Libya rebels which resulted in the over throw of the Qadaffi government. In Libya this led to the immediate expulsion of 20,000 Chinese workers who working in the oil fields and the end of Chinese business contracts. Maybe time for a little revenge on their part.

In any case, to have Iran, Russia and China actively entering this war has to be a major escalation of hostilities. No matter how justified, the chances of this blowing up into a major confrontation with Turkey, Israel and the US is just too high (is France really thinking of joining??) Anyone who thinks this will a cake walk is smoking too much hopium.

Posted by: ToivoS | Sep 26 2015 16:08 utc | 22

Turkish Top Military Brass meets Wolfowitz one day before Istanbul Attacks

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ANA311A.html

The two Istanbul attacks respectively on the HSBC in the financial district and on the British Consulate were, according to media reports "timed to coincide with President George Bush's state visit to London."

The attacks took place one day following the completion of the annual Turkish-US Joint Defense Group meeting (17-19 November 2003).

The British Consul General Roger Short, was killed by the bomb as he was entering the consulate building. Press reports confirmed that he had cancelled an appointment at the last minute and "if he had gone to his appointment, he would have been alive."

The attacks create conditions for Turkey's participation in the war on terrorism.

The attacks serve to strengthen the Anglo-American military axis and the legitimacy of Bush's "War on terrorism."

The Istanbul bombings also serve to uphold the shaky legitimacy of Prime Minister Tony Blair in the face of mounting political opposition to Britain's' participation in the US led war.

Michel Chossudovsky, 11/21/03

~~~~~~~~

http://www.mediareviewnet.com/Zionist%20intelligence%20engineered%20Istanbul%20blasts.htm

"A Turkish daily close to the ruling justice and development party quoted Turkish intelligence sources as saying that the Mossad had established the organization that launched the two attacks on 15th November, 2003."

~~~~~~~~

http://www.onlinejournal.com/Special_Reports/062904Stanton/062904stanton.html

Turkey is a major refining and transit point for the flow of heroin from Southwest Asia to Western Europe.

Kendal Nezan, writing for Le Monde Diplomatique, has reported that MIT and the Turkish National Police force were actively supporting the trade in illicit drugs not only for fun and profit, but out of desperation...

"According to the daily Hürriyet, Turkey's heroin trafficking brought in $25 billion in 1995 and $37.5 billion in 1996 . . . Only criminal networks working in close cooperation with the police and the army could possibly organize trafficking on such a scale. Drug barons have stated publicly, on Turkish television and in the West, that they have been working under the protection of the Turkish government and to its financial benefit. The traffickers themselves travel on diplomatic passports. The drugs are even transported by military helicopter from the Iranian border."

~~~~~~~

Posted by: Collar | Sep 26 2015 16:24 utc | 23

@2 harry law.. agreed.

@7 penelope.. this fuller guy sounds like a first class idiot.. does he think anyone believes this bullshite about the usa being the worlds 'policemen'? he is giving the police a bad name.. mafia is more like it.. the usa goes in and destroys countries.. that isn't my idea of 'world policemen'..

@10 h.. agreed..

@16 harry law... Virginia State Senator Dick Black.. kudos to him for running opposite the military industrial complex, israel and every other fucking murderous agenda seeking pac.

Posted by: james | Sep 26 2015 16:36 utc | 24

Collar,

If all you know comes from those links, maybe you should look for more sources (if possible not dead links...)

I'm no specialist of cover-ops, I simply live in the damn country. And when I see the same story repeated over and over but only in half of the newspapers, I just know that it's Erdogan's crap... As always...

Ergenekon was a total lie created by Erdogan and Gülen to break down the Turkish army and they've succeeded. The 80 something people who were in jail are now free because "being part of a criminal organization that doesn't exist is not a crime"... Says the justice system not me.

So yes, you will find zillions of references to non existing events in the press. Does that make them true ? No, if you have a power hungry paranoid fool running the country with a bunch of friends owning the newspapers...

The last (epic) example... A few days ago, in a TV show, Erdogan reported a discussion he had with the largest newspaper owner in Turkey: Aydin Dogan who allegedly told him :
"We make and break governments in Turkey".
Yesterday A.Dogan wrote a public letter to Erdogan simply saying : "you're a liar".

FYI, Hürriyet, his newspaper, has been attacked by an angry mob a few days ago... Mob headed by an AKP member... Who just got promoted. That's who we're talking about...

If you're so interested by Turkey, look in the news and make up your own opinion... It's all the newspapers are talking about today...

But if you prefer to believe the lies of a "wannabe sultan" it's your problem not mine. Do realize that most people do not believe a word he says anymore. He's a goner and the sooner the better...

PS: A.Dogan has been attacked (verbally, judicially, tax-wise and even physically before) and so far he never replied. If he does today, it can only mean that he's got a backing he didn't have before and that he isn't afraid to respond anymore.
Things are going to get VERY interesting very soon....

Posted by: sysati | Sep 26 2015 16:48 utc | 25

With a moron like Davutoglu as a PM obeying like a hamster to his megalomaniac master, what can be expected in Turkey?
With the revelation that the 'vetted' rebels are nothing else than Al Nusra's buddies, Bashar Al Assad's narrative was right: There has never been moderate revolutionaries, but only Islamists with an Islamist agenda, similar to Morsi's in Egypt.
Where is Khaled Khoja SNC's smart Turkish-Syrian-Turkmen leader? Silenced or under psychological shock after he made the following declaration as reported by VOA?

Syrian Opposition Leader: ‘Russia Isn't Clinging to Assad’ in august 2015..

Posted by: Virgile | Sep 26 2015 16:51 utc | 26

...
In any case, to have Iran, Russia and China actively entering this war has to be a major escalation of hostilities. No matter how justified, the chances of this blowing up into a major confrontation with Turkey, Israel and the US is just too high (is France really thinking of joining??) Anyone who thinks this will a cake walk is smoking too much hopium.
Posted by: ToivoS | Sep 26, 2015 12:08:26 PM | 22

It's not that simple. Have you forgotten that the Yankees committed a colossal blunder by threatening (and ACTING upon those threats) both Russia & China? And then there are all the dozens of countries AmeriKKKa's sociopaths have wrecked and or damaged since WWII. Imo, Syria was merely the last straw, and now the camel's back is broken the Real World alliance will start extracting Good Behaviour promises (Or Else..) from AmeriKKKa's Lunatics & Liars.
i.e. it's not just about Syria anymore.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 26 2015 17:29 utc | 27

In fact, I'll go further.
At the end of The Road To Damascus is a civilised America or a totally ruined AmeriKKKa.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 26 2015 17:49 utc | 28

From the Reuters article:

U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. military operations in the Middle East, was told of the equipment surrender around 1 p.m. on Friday, Ryder said. Earlier on Friday, Ryder had said all weapons and equipment issued to the rebels remained under their control.

I find it fascinating that this is finally being reported by the MSM - although the details seem to have been altered in a damage-control effort by the DoD and their disastrous 'Train and Equip' program.

News of 70 newly-trained members of the 'moderate rebel' Division 30 were reported to have surrendered all their vehicles and equipment and essentially quit as soon as they returned to Syria. Their commander issued a statement via Twitter critical of the U.S./U.K. program and said they had planned on acquiring the arms and equipment specifically FOR al Nusra all along - they just tricked the stupid Americans. Twitter quickly deleted accounts last weekend reporting these details in a ham-handed attempt at censorship. That censorship itself caused an outburst on other social media. Monday the word had spread about the original incident and the account deletions.

By last Tuesday, the UK Telegraph's Amman reported had described even more detail, although much appears to have been sourced from social media.

US-trained Division 30 rebels 'betray US and hand weapons over to al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria'

Initial reports of this event described the new Division 30 vehicles as 12 Toyota pickups with dual 23mm autocannons (anti-aircraft guns) mounted on the back. Later reports added in separate sniper rifles; special high-accuracy large-calibre anti-materiel rifles with scopes. There wouldn't have been anyone else besides al Nusra to hand these weapons over to - north of Aleppo and to the west into Idlib is a jumble of head-chopper units operating as al Nusra. Among them, Chechen, Uzbeki and Uyghur terror groups.

The Pentagon vigorously denied any such event by Tuesday, and claimed it was in contact with the new Division 30 rebels and everything was accounted for. I guess they finally got around to reading the Telegraph on Friday and decided to 'confirm' the bad news late that night when nobody was looking. The Reuters account of Pentagon claims seems incredulous - six pickups and some ammo? No mention of the 70 desertions? No sniper rifles? No mention of anti-aircraft guns mounted on the pickups? Why claim only six pickups were handed over if all 70 of the Div. 30 trainees quit? Where are the other six pickups sporting the ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns?

Considering pedo Petraeus' recent call to arm al Nusra head-choppers in order to fight Assad, I can't wonder if this whole episode was planned from the start. Did the CIA run these 70 through the program merely to have them mule sniper and anti-aircraft weapons and ammo to al Nusra? Plausible deniability - "Oh.. I guess they quit and gave their stuff to al Nusra".

And all this at a time when Al Jazeera English editors have instructed their staff to stop referring to Jabhat al Nusra as 'al Qaeda-linked' because it's no longer relevant.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 26 2015 18:29 utc | 29

Lets face it! The jews have provoked WWI and WWII to gain israel. Nothing will stop these rats to provoque WWIII to achieve eretz israel. From the Nil to Euphrate it’s biblical

Posted by: fayez chergui | Sep 26 2015 19:08 utc | 30

I think that we should refrain from baseless accusations. Some unfortunate examples:

"pedo Petraeus", perhaps related to this piece of current news "David Petraeus, the retired Army general and former CIA director, apologized Wednesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee for his high-profile extramarital affair, and then proceeded to lay out his his vision for how the United States should handle the ongoing conflict in Iraq and Syria."

I understand that the affair partner of the general was not a minor, did not look like a minor etc. I wonder if any of the committee member asked if breasts of Ms. Browell are natural.

"With a moron like Davutoglu as a PM obeying like a hamster to his megalomaniac master," I have seen some hamsters in my life, and while they were docile, it is hard to call them obedient. So a hamster may have looks of PM, and there were news about remarkably stupid hamsters, obedience is less typical https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sISjkn-ygSk

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 26 2015 19:13 utc | 31

This was spoken of, perhaps a month ago, as a possibility of dividing the country. It looks as if it leaves the nonwounded rebels in possession for 6 months, no? Z is close to the Lebanese border.

" confirmed on Friday that rebel fighters and government forces in Syria have agreed on a 6-month truce for the town of Zabadani and two Shiite villages, Fuaa and Kafraya.
The agreement has the endorsement of the UN and was brokered by Turkey and Iran, according to the chief of Lebanon's Shiite movement Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.

Following the terms of the deal, around 500 armed and wounded rebels will be withdrawn from Zabadani along with their families to northern Idlib province in exchange for the evacuation of 10,000 women and children from Fuaa and Kafraya to regime-controlled zones."
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20150926/1027573106/syria-army-rebels-truce.html#ixzz3mrQHfmB6

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 19:16 utc | 32

Anybody know if the supplylines have been stopped at the sources??

MSM: "YPG fighters have won victories over Isis this year at Kobani, Tal Abyad and Hasaka, at the same time that Isis was inflicting defeats on both the Iraqi and Syrian armies."

-Yes, well they had soldier salaries and arms provided by Syria, aircover & training by US & maybe more arms.

MSM: 9/21 "The loss of Jarabulus would isolate Isis, bringing to an end its ability to bring in thousands of fanatical Islamic fighters who have been crossing from Turkey into Syria without significant hindrance over the last four years. "

-The Kurds were about to capture Jarabulus when Erdogan began his air attacks on them. Who controls it now??

Also, does Southern Storm's backers withdrawal of their support in the campaign against Dara mean that Jordan's border is closed to the supply line?

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 19:20 utc | 33

James @24,

Of COURSE, Fuller is a liar. He's a senior "retired" CIA, who in all probability set up the two Boston Marathon patsies.

At the top of the Fuller article I asked, "Is this a trial balloon to see how this can be spun?"

And Fuller isn't really such an idiot; he is not addressing the "awakened community"; he is addressing the great mass of semi-successfully propagandized. OBVIOUSLY, the oligarchical power structure of which the US is the military component want to pivot their aggression to the Caspian and Eastward.

Fuller's article is a suggested line of how US abandonment of the mideast can be spun.

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 19:52 utc | 34

Harry Law @2

"US political class, who where dumbfounded when their support for the Islamist's in Afghanistan in the 80's back fired on 9/11."

Harry, you need to do some serious reading about 9/11 if you haven't realized 9/11 was an inside job as a pretext for domestic over-riding of the constitution and degrading of the middle-east. Because it's free, you might look at Webster Tarpley's Synthetic Terror; it's online.

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 19:54 utc | 35

Systai @11. Sorry, what's "RTE"?

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 19:55 utc | 36

Piotr@31 No, my jab at Petraeus goes back to the sickening accounts of DynCorp's regular Bacha Bazi parties for warlords/police officials in Afghanistan since before 2010. I heard accounts of this directly from active duty servicemen and vets stationed there. That's corroborated by other credible accounts of these parties and Petraeus' presence (as honored guest and CENTCOM commander) on the internet. That's further corroborated by whistleblowers run out of the service for bringing up this troubling issue for the last half decade.

I'm nobody to judge Petraeus regarding his affair. I am one to judge Petraeus for being at Afghan parties hosted by government contractors that included the viewing of 12-year-old dancing boys performances followed by auctions for their 'company' later that evening. I doubt Petraeus participated in the bidding or left with one of these boys, but there are few normal human beings that could sit through such and event and dismiss it as merely some kind of quirky Afghani cultural thing. It is far, far worse that Petraeus attended these parties in his role as CENTCOM commander along with other high-ranking military and embassy personnel. It's incomprehensible that he attended MANY such parties during his time there.

Granted, the Bacha Bazi part was an aside - not the main reason for the party. This was obviously DynCorp and other contractors' efforts to ingratiate themselves with their 'customers' - the Afghani officials. Nonetheless, the Bacha Bazi was a very visible part of these occasions and was intended to satisfy the sick pedophillia practices of the Afghani warlords/police officials being wined and dined there.

A 12-year-old boy can't consent to anal rape. Human beings are not to be auctioned off for any reason. For Petraeus to openly tolerate this at these contractor parties and on his own bases is the height of psychopathy.

The recent news of Army guys being thrown out for beating up one of these Afghan 'police official' pedos that had a young boy chained to his bed isn't a one-off event. The problem didn't start with Petraeus but it was his command responsibility to ensure it ended on his watch. Instead, he did what the Army and Marines are still doing today: run any whistleblowers out of the service. I suppose I should temper my snark a bit by referring to Petraeus as 'suspected pedo-enabler'. Unless your contention is that it was none of Petraeus' business that 12-year-old boys were being auctioned off for anal rape because that's how they roll in Afghanistan.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 26 2015 19:58 utc | 37

Harry Law @16,

Thanks for the Dick Black quote. You know, he's the guy who wrote Assad, thanking him for rescuing Christians & keeping the small population of Jews safe.

Maybe in Virginia they are not such crazy neocons.

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 20:15 utc | 38

If Putin does a thorough job on these terrorist ( US and allied puppets ) proxies in Syria, he will have a massive boost to his credentials as a world leader. The "war on terror", would really, be only starting now under Putin. He could use that line to great affect, that's if he actually committed to that and succeeds enough.
But of course the US "war on terror" fraud has always been a pretext, and it has really been the war BY Terror - of US State terrorism.

Putin's goals are not only about leadership, but it's also about strengthening his alliances against the evil US Empire, strengthening counter forces against it, and, in the midterm - trying to create a military power equilibrium against the US.

And ToivoS @22 is spot on. This shit is fucking serious, so do not dismiss it as a risk-less punch in the face to the evil US Empire.

Posted by: tom | Sep 26 2015 20:19 utc | 39

nice post
but really
the jewish house of saud
live organ dealer erdogan
oded yinon israel
chatham rothschild house brookings
sas and cia jolly gay zionists boys from the mi6
we need a pipeline qatar
all checked
treadstone and blackbriar closed down and defunded.
shut borne bond and rabbi nutty yahoo dow.
no

zion does not sleep
by deception thou shalt do?
what exactly

the talmud needs innocent blood flow
the goy must bleed
a rethink regroup a redirection.

this is not over
zionism never sleeps.
look how easy it is to make the ancient civilisations bleed
while getting morons in the usa and uk to give moral consent
for gladio destruction.

Posted by: charles drake | Sep 26 2015 20:24 utc | 40

Penelope@33 The Rojava Kurds (YPG or not) were supposedly 'warned' by the U.S. not to push any further than the Euphrates if they wanted air support.

The U.S. and Turkey have schemed to keep the al Nusra/ISIS supply corridor from the Euphrates to Kilis/Aizaz and beyond, all the way to Rojava-held parts of Afrin. This was suppose to be the so-called 'safe zone', which looks like nothing more than a no-fly zone permitting free passage from Turkey to al Nusra and ISIS with supplies. There are many points of crossing. Zoom in anyplace along the border and you'll see well-worn dirt roads crossing the border, especially just West of Jarabulus. There isn't really any control on the Turkish-Syrian border along much of that stretch.

The YPG attacking ISIS-held Jarabulus is off-script - they weren't suppose to do that. They, of course, know perfectly well what is going on at the Turkish border and have sought to cut off those supply lines for months. If the Rojava Kurds can push West to their comrades in Afrin, they can shut down all the supply lines. The U.S. and Turkey are obviously opposed to the idea as this would make their ongoing al Nusra and ISIS arms and bulk explosives resupply complicated.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 26 2015 20:24 utc | 41

Sorry - the link above doesn't seem to work. It's just the Google satellite image of the border near Jarabulus, Syria: https://goo.gl/maps/GwfJQERxupE2

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 26 2015 20:31 utc | 42

jaquith @12,
Thanks for letting us know about the arrival of the Chinese ship.

The Turkic Uyghurs are the ones who staged the massacre of 56 captured Syrian soldiers at Abu Dhuhur. The Uyghurs have also been reported at Jaysh al Fateh, Idlib & Homs. The Turkistan Islamic Party was important in facilitating their arrival in Syria.

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 20:34 utc | 43

Noirette @18, Nice roundup. Here's a few additions.

KSA: You probably know about the letter penned by a member of Saudi royal family which is circulating among the family. It calls for isolating the King (I think he's senile), strongly criticizes the Crown Prince, the Syrian & Yemeni wars, and the reduced oil price. It's a call for an emergency meeting to change leadership.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-senior-royal-urges-change-amid-fears-monarchy-collapse-1612130905

According to Thierry Meyssan the Saudi-Israeli alliance is even closer since the US-Iran deal and military alliance now exists between Israel and the Arab states w Israel in command. However it must remain secret until Palestinians receive statehood. For this & other reasons I wd think that the Israelis are doing everything in their power to influence the outcome of the Saudi power struggle.
---
THE REFUGEES: http://www.voltairenet.org/article188623.html More than two thirds of the migrants are men. According to their declarations, more than half of them are between 18 and 34 years old. So, generally speaking, this is not a family issue. Less than a third of these are refugees from war zones : 20 % are Syrians, 7 % are Afghans, and 3 % are Iraqis. The other two thirds do not come from countries at war – they are for the most part economic migrants.
---
Turkey spent $6B warehousing 2 million refugees in gigantic tent camps. They were to be used for the "safe zones" (no-fly) that he and the neocons so wanted. But when he turned them loose on Europe, instead, seems Putin had a better idea. . . .

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 26 2015 21:13 utc | 44

I wonder how Barry will 'spin' this one ?? He previously claimed that the war on ISUS could take 'decades' !!

Posted by: Jack Oliver | Sep 26 2015 21:18 utc | 45

@ tom

I'll write a letter to Putin Claus for that S-300.
Thank you for a good laugh.

Posted by: Gerry1211 | Sep 26 2015 21:50 utc | 46

21

"Trump is often obnoxious, but also the only GOP candidate with something similar to a brain."

Yes, a brain trust.

Adolf Hitler rose to power on the slogan, 'Make Germany Great Again!'
But Hitler was a far, far better orator and strategist than Trump is.

Trump is being handled by the same folks who used to handle Hillary.
She is radioactive waste, he is hellfire, channeling TeaBag Ideology.

His business holdings are bankrupt, casinos are dead, he's going for
the mega-campaign funds that made Kerry and Gore into billionaires.

Just another bloviating whore to Mammon. Nothing to see here, folks.

Posted by: Chipnik | Sep 27 2015 0:10 utc | 47

Paveway IV @41. Thank you. That was exactly what I wanted to know. So there are about 100 miles of frontier to be monitored to prevent supplies/new recruits from Turkey from being accessed. If this can be accomplished (plus blocking supplies over the Jordanian frontier) then the conflict must be over very quickly. But I suppose it's not so easy to 100% seal the borders.
---
Apparently US still blocking UN sanctions against ISIS as an independent organization:

"It is no secret that the Islamic State is an independent structure, acting, to a certain extent, as a rival of al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, it is outlined in the UN Security Council's sanctions list as one of the names of al-Qaeda in Iraq. We have proposed to include the Islamic State as an independent organization, but our proposals are being blocked by Western members of the Security Council, especially the United States, under various pretexts," Rogachev told RIA Novosti.

"We are naturally ‘digesting’ individual aspects of our proposals with our foreign partners. A coalition’s activities must act on the UN Security Council’s permission to use military force, as well as permission from the governments of those countries that are affected by these activities. An anti-terrorist coalition must integrate all of the interested governments in order to be effective," Ilya Rogachev said.
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150924/1027456504.html#ixzz3mtXD30Lo

Seems a bit nit-picky to me, but the Russians are sticklers for law.

Posted by: Penelope | Sep 27 2015 1:40 utc | 48

Chipnik @ 47: Yep, some relevant rhetoric,but, still Kabuki.

Hope the story about the Chinese flat top is true. Could change everything. REAL opposition to the empire? Hopefully.

Posted by: ben | Sep 27 2015 2:29 utc | 49

@16 harry law

Thanks for that video. Dick Black didn't mention Iran ... I'm sure that's the third rail in VA, but I'd have thought most of the stuff he's said would have got him lynched there, yet he's still talkin' the talk. I had never heard of or from him before.

There's a huge military population in VA, and Senator Black offered Putin some free advice ... flatten Raqqa, a la Fallujah. He is still a belligerent but he's seen through the neolibracon's DD&D crimes and sees nothing but terror and sorrow for everyone involved as their result, including of course for the USA. And he's spoken up and lived to tell about it in Virginia. That's gotta be one small good sign.

Posted by: jfl | Sep 27 2015 2:32 utc | 50

@48

US intransigence in 'sanctioning' ISIS serves only to more fully expose their criminal past and intent. I have no advice for Putin, he seems to be doing superbly on his own. And being a 'stickler' for legal 'detail' is exactly the right thing to do. 'Exceptionalism' has been the name of the game since 9/11, and the law is never more necessary than in 'exceptional' circumstances. Putin and Xi are building the foundations of something they hope will be much more farther-reaching than Syria, and much longer-lived that this campaign. There I go, hitting the hopium again.

Posted by: jfl | Sep 27 2015 2:39 utc | 51

49

Wasn't 'Opposition to the Empire' one of Lucas's huge movie flops, ...or am I thinking of 'Life Among The Hobbitses on WilShire Boulevard'?

Russia is an Oiligarchy. USA is an Oiligarchy. KSA is an oiligarchy. And China slams 2,800 teens into dormitory compounds, double bunk beds to each room, and pays them 17c an hour to manufacture gew-gaws for the Zeks and the Goyems who pay for this whole deShamWowification.

Russia is (they say) sending 'advisors' to Syria because the KSA Pump Until You Dump crude contango, together with the illegal US/EU sanctions, is destroying the Oiligarchs profits. That's the only reason they're there, is stabilize Yinonites and go for a EU gas pipeline.

China is (they say) dumping US treasuries to QEz it's own contango'd up stock bubble, and sending a 'flat top' to the Med, ...on it's way to provide military cover for it's illegal mining operations in Africa next week, and ten it's expansion into the South China Sea.

KSA, for its part, is in Yemen to capture the Schlumberger-discovered oil and gas reserves before the Iranians can move in a Shiaa-led government, baaksheesh siphoning back to Tehran.

Same as it ever was: The Enterprise.

It's just business, get over it.

Posted by: Chipnik | Sep 27 2015 2:48 utc | 52

Those who poke fun at the low number of Syrians trained to fight ISIS are missing an important point, I think.

As per a CBS News report in August, hundreds (perhaps thousands by the end of the year?) more fighters have received training but did not complete it. CBS News said that they preferred to fight Assad instead. How many were trained and how much training they received before leaving is unknown (to me).

This naturally leads to the question of whether the training is REALLY meant to further anti-Assad efforts instead of anti-ISIS efforts. And adds to other indications that removing Assad is/remains the primary goal of the administration and allies.

The Russians have thrown a monkey-wrench into the anti-Assad works. But those who see Russia's increased involvement as a panacea may be disappointed. Are the allies really so dumb that they could not have anticipated Russia's intervention? That is not to say that Russia's move (coordinating with Iran and China) was not smart/necessary, just that expectations that the allies come to their senses and/or ISIS is quickly defeated seems premature.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 27 2015 3:06 utc | 53

@ 52: "Same as it ever was: The Enterprise."

"It's just business, get over it."

I guess, because I believe the above statements true, all we can hope for, is that someone, somewhere, changes the way humanity treats it's laborers. Don't hold your breath.

Posted by: ben | Sep 27 2015 3:29 utc | 54

@53 Jack

' This naturally leads to the question of whether the training is REALLY meant to further anti-Assad efforts instead of anti-ISIS efforts. '

Never any question in my mind. Anyone else's? Defeating ISIS will take as long as it takes. If the US persists, out of sheer recalcitrance and perversity, in funding, training, and arming ISIS it will take longer. But it's hard not to see the US - exposed now for all to see as the evil empire it is and has been - not trying to cut its losses, and they certainly care not a whit about what happens to the poor suckers they've roped into ISIS in the event that they do.

And I think that is the story ... the way we used to love ya baby, that's the way we hate ya now. Towards the US. I'm sure the number of regimes which truly loved the US could have been counted on one hand, but many more went along with the empire's Big Lies out of fear of the consequences of not doing so. I think that once they see that opposition is possible the US will overtly and instantly become the most hated nation on earth, surpassing even Israel in that respect. And won't we Americans be shocked! when that happens?

Posted by: jfl | Sep 27 2015 3:41 utc | 55

The most brilliant parts are "Israel has being told to go back to its corner and shut up" and the ones about the stupid wannabe sultan. Two years ago --I was working for a latin american newspaper-- several turkish officials from the ministry of foreing affairs in Ankara told me that they didn´t have any interest in "neo ottomanism" and the expansion of their strategic goals in Syria...

Posted by: guy | Sep 27 2015 3:55 utc | 56

caught this tweet of child solders linked at breitbart.. some of the comments to it were flat out disgusting ('kill them all without mercy', 'easy to shoot because they run slow', etc)

https://twitter.com/iAssil/status/647431477081317376

heartbreaking

Posted by: aaaaa | Sep 27 2015 4:27 utc | 57


Lone Wolf | Sep 27, 2015 2:05:39 AM | 58

Excellent assessments! The Chinese will arrive not "in the next few weeks" but anytime more or less 1,000 strong marines O/B Jinggangshan plus weapons and equipments...

"international coalition" (Russia-China-Iran-Hamas-Syria) against the "coalition suicidal of the willing" (US-France-Turkey-Jordan-Australia-UK-France-Israel-IS/Qaeda).

Guess what? I'll put my money on the "international coalition"

Posted by: Jack Smith | Sep 27 2015 6:41 utc | 58


Correction..

"international coalition" (Russia-China-Iran-Hezbollah-Syria) against the "coalition suicidal of the willing" (US-France-Turkey-Jordan-Australia-UK-France-Israel-IS/Qaeda).

Posted by: Jack Smith | Sep 27 2015 6:48 utc | 59


September 7, 2013

Western naval sources reported Friday that a Chinese landing craft, the Jinggangshan, with a 1,000-strong marine battalion had reached the Red Sea en route for the Mediterranean off Syria. According to DEBKAfile, Beijing has already deployed a number of warships opposite Syria in secret. If the latest report is confirmed, this will be the largest Chinese deployment in the Middle East in its naval history.....

http://www.prisonplanet.com/a-chinese-landing-craft-with-1000-marines-for-syria.html

Posted by: Jack Smith | Sep 27 2015 6:55 utc | 60

Posted by: harry law | Sep 26, 2015 10:59:50 AM | 16

Dick Black isn't alone (although not far from it in the US).
Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R) California, a strident critic of Washington's anti-Russia cretinism was interviewed by RT's Sophie S ~Sept 22. He thinks Putin is on the right track and believes most of the World's problems could be relieved or cured if Russia and AmeriKKKa operated as a team instead of the enemies Washington's ideologues prefer them to be.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 27 2015 8:04 utc | 61

France launches Syria anti-IS strikes
France has carried out its first air strikes against Islamic State militants in Syria.

The president's office said that French planes struck targets identified during reconnaissance missions conducted over the past fortnight.

France co-ordinated with regional partners for the operation, a brief statement said.

French jets have previously carried out air strikes against IS targets in neighbouring Iraq.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34372892

Posted by: okie farmer | Sep 27 2015 8:05 utc | 62

Eric Draitser interviewed on US collusion with the media in this short video. Matt Lee's facial expression @ 1.27 mins is worth the watch alone. State Department talking head "As a matter of longstanding policy the US does not support political transition by non constitutional means. Political transitions must be democratic, constitutional, peaceful and legal. Matt Lee, "Whoa! whoa! whoa! the US has a longstanding process of not promoting, what did you say? How longstanding is that?"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5feP3dlHEU&list=TLxqOAfR3Ipt8yNjA5MjAxNQ

Posted by: harry law | Sep 27 2015 9:39 utc | 63

Sorry I can't get that link to work it is 'Great explanation by Eric Draitser; The operation mockingbird is still alive and well' you tube. Try again https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5feP3dlHEU&list=TLxqOAfR3Ipt8yNjA5MjAxNQ

Posted by: harry law | Sep 27 2015 9:47 utc | 64

Indeed, "Erdogan must go!"

Posted by: x | Sep 27 2015 9:52 utc | 65

@ #10: "Turkey's policy not so long ago was zero problems with its neighbors, ..."

Indeed, however, this policy may equally imply that 'Syria' (as such) was not a neighbor in the Turk's longer view ...

Posted by: x | Sep 27 2015 9:57 utc | 66

@ #58: "The US/NATOstan/Sultan Erdo/Gulf Crooks & Co and the war criminal Saudis, could slow down the march against IS/Qaeda et al rats, but they cannot stop it anymore, their only option is to take the train for Eurasia, via the Silk Road, or to bite the dust with their cannibals."

Indeed, the Saudi criminal cartel is under pressure but it is likely part of a broader strategy to place then in charge of the UN Human Rights agenda just as there could be truck loads of war the Wahhabi war criminals due for trial soon -- in addition, of course, to the weekly beheadings, hand lopping and occasional teenage crucifixion.

Posted by: x | Sep 27 2015 10:06 utc | 67

well, Syria may have turned the corner, but you can bet your sweet ass that the psychotic fucktards at the helm of the american imperium have not.

you'll know they have when you hear that formal charges have been filed against, say, Victoria Nuland, or general John Allen, or Hillary Clinton, or any number of other goobers all the way up to the president himself, on charges of treason...

...and they've been led away in shackles.

Posted by: john | Sep 27 2015 10:39 utc | 68

Has anyone come across a poll or similar survey regarding whom the Syrian refugees are fleeing from?
IMHO there is a big difference between "we are fleeing from the fighting" and "we are fleeing from Assad"
Personally I left my own home country due to an ongoing war, but even though I had major differences with the government it would be untrue to claim I had fled that government. I fled the circumstances.

Posted by: KerKaraje | Sep 27 2015 11:12 utc | 69

There are encouraging signs that the war in Syria and Iraq has "light at the end of the tunnel", but today I have read a sobering reminder of the limits of air superiority on the ground. First, you can destroy, but you cannot control, short of being genocidal. That requires combining the effort with ground forces that can use the edge given by the air support, move in and control. Control is not so easy when every person on the street can be a suicide bomber, countermeasures mean accidental killings and repressions, people hate you and the "bad guys" bent of wrecking havoc have easy time moving around. And even when the troops on your side move in, the opponent strikes back.

A sobering reminder today was a piece of news from KSA: a brigadier general was killed in fighting on Yemen border, on KSA side. And KSA admitted 100 losses in that region. On both sides on KSA/Yemen border the terrain, and the people, are remarkably similar. And overall, Yemen is amazingly similar to Afghanistan, intricate structure of tribes, alliances and animosities, warrior tradition, etc. And there is even a border region analogous to North West Pakistan, and this is where KSA military is clearly in difficulty. No wonder that KSA wanted "boots" from Pakistan, and no wonder that Pakistanis graciously declined -- they knew perfectly well what would wait for them.

And there is a big hope that the rate at which the rebels and ISIS are supplied (supplies to rebels trickle to ISIS) will decrease, and that should help a lot. But Yemen is under siege for a long time, so in itself it does not solve the problem either.

To summarize, if the opponent has enough troops and some minimal level of weapons, air superiority provides force multiplier, but not a drastic game changer. And ending insurgency requires some ratio of force, sometimes described like 10 to 1, but this just an indicator of asymmetry. Syrian forces have more battle experience and motivation than GCC and KSA, but in a country with 100 battle fronts, 40 new planes and few thousands of foreign troops do not make drastic changes. A combination of improved weapons, air support, and improved external situation decreasing supplies to the opponents should make a difference, but some basic questions are not resolved yet.

After all, the source of the problem is really in Iraq. Neither Americans nor Shia majority figured out how to control Sunni areas. Clearly, Syrian government did exactly that, and Saddam controlled Shia when in power, but old methods may be impossible to restore, and while not lamentable, the problem remains.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 27 2015 11:36 utc | 70

@70

'I fled the circumstances.' I've always imagined that was the case with the majority ... your homes and lives destroyed at the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate's convenience, you've all just gone - anywhere but where you were subject to his perpetual 'cleansing operations'. And they're never through using you. Erdogan emptied out Turkey when it became apparent he couldn't use you as 'settlers' in Syria, bordering Turkey. I don't know where you are or where you're from but I see you have a blog ... I'll try and follow it and educate myself a little. Thanks for speaking up.

I'm sorry I have been unable to stop Bush/Obama from serving death, devastation, and destruction to you and hundreds of thousands of others ... not to mention the well over a million they've murdered outright in the Middle East.

Boy, that sounds pretty lame doesn't it? Well it's just what it sounds like, isn't it? And I am lame. Might as well face the facts.

Posted by: jfl | Sep 27 2015 11:37 utc | 71

if you folks believe israhell has been put back in it"s black saturnic cube
if you folks think the neo cons are walking away giving up the ghost
then you probably believe trump saunders and corbyn are part of the solution.
a brave new world
for whom
huxster huxley talmoo masonics run the show.
these photoshop images of migs on a tarmac of china soldiers in blue at the moment are know different to the rita katz rabbi ruburt murdoch fake pixelation.
remember the khazar are masters of the galvanic event.
tavistock trauma country of the mind mapping for a 100 years these forces are psychopath.
no turning a corner until we here of isis high ways of death.
no turning of anything until we here jg ballard tales of burning toyota humvee blackened black prada outfits and toasted white nike sports shoes.

this is all debka shite at the moment.
putin is an antidote but i can never forget him surrounded by rabbi with his skull hat on pressing his paws against that wall in old palestine.
such blind tribute paid those images allways seem like battery being charged with demonic force


command and control and logistics wipe out would be a nice start like last week or now before the un event.
making deals with erdogan,the satanic donmeh house of saud qatar and the criminally insane nutty yahoo just gives them breathing room to plot anew via script writers in the empire of the city of london and washington.


no sorry no turning corners yet just a really small lump in the road
break peddle or double down on the other one.

Posted by: charles drake | Sep 27 2015 11:51 utc | 72

@70 KerKaraje

I've been looking over some of your posts ...

The “Hooligan theory” and Syria


You can smuggle hooligans into a football stadium, bypassing the security personell or bribing them. You may think this is a good idea in order to counter-balance the guest teams hooligans or to contain them. But, once you got 5000 hooligans into an arena with even 80000 other spectators there is no way you can control those guys. It´s an illusion to think they listen to you or that you can predict or even determine their actions.

Eventually there is a good chance “your” hooligans vandalize your own assets and harm your own team and fans.


But the USA or FUKUS are not the home team. They don't care who is killed or what is destroyed as long as there is death and destruction in Syria. The conditions you describe in Afghanistan after the Russian withdrawal are FUKUS' desired conditions in Syria ... look at Afghanistan redux, Iraq, Libya ... those are not 'mistakes' those are 'success' stories from the point of view of the depraved FUKUS. That's the way it seems to me. They keep repeating the same 'mistakes'. Do you agree? Or do you think they have anything other than chaos in mind for their envisioned Syria post-Assad?

Posted by: jfl | Sep 27 2015 12:27 utc | 73

So accordingly FUKUS wants ISIS and their mayhem in Syria.

I caught just part of an interview by chance this morning on NPR discussing Putin's role in Syria. The interviewee made the statement that without Assad there would be no ISIS which struck me as ludicrous and an attempt to deflect the truth. I thought that without the intervention of the US hegemon in Middle Eastern affairs that there would probably be no ISIS.

I'd appreciate some other views on this.

Posted by: juannie | Sep 27 2015 13:04 utc | 74

@ jfl | 74

Or do you think they have anything other than chaos in mind for their envisioned Syria post-Assad?

Pretty much. Previously I thought 'Plan A' was to install a puppet regime, and if they could do it in relatively bloodless way, US and co would be satisfied with it and not destroy the country. While 'Plan B' was a failed state, i.e. "if we cant have it, no one will, scorched earth tactic".

However I see now I was in part mistaken, even if US would have gotten Assad to step down and hand over power to their puppets, Syria's destruction would have continued anyway. Fresh example - Ukraine, US overthrew Yanukovich easily and with hundred dead or so only. Were US satisfied with it? No, they send their neo-nazis to massacre everyone who disagrees with them, while trying their best to start Ukraine's hot war with Russia. Ukraine is fast approaching failed state level (and with ~100k deaths already), just kept on life support by the West for as long as they are needed against Russia.

In other words, regardless if US would have gotten Syria in an easy or a hard way, country would have been destroyed either way. Cut off ties with the resistance axis, Syria itself divided into statelets (for Israel and Turkey to grab more territory, carved out Kurdistan, etc). Syria's army together with Israel would start war with Hezbollah, Syria's militias would be sent to Iran, Russia and China to become "freedom fighters" there, you name it. Thats one of the incentives for the resistance axis to support Assad, its better to fight and kill terrorists in Syria than in their own countries.

Posted by: Harry | Sep 27 2015 13:07 utc | 75

The conditions you describe in Afghanistan after the Russian withdrawal are FUKUS' desired conditions in Syria ... look at Afghanistan redux, Iraq, Libya ... those are not 'mistakes' those are 'success' stories from the point of view of the depraved FUKUS. That's the way it seems to me. They keep repeating the same 'mistakes'.

The chaos, fracturing, weakening, Balkanization, of neighboring Arab States is clearly called for in the Oded Yinon Plan for Greater Israel and again repeatedly in more recent documents. PNAC, for example.

Posted by: fast freddy | Sep 27 2015 13:20 utc | 76

Let us hope that this article turns out to be true. It is high time that the Middle East get back to some level of order after so many years of Chaos. IMO this shows just how desperate the moneyed global elite are to cause this level of destruction.

Posted by: Peter B. | Sep 26, 2015 3:03:41 AM | 1

I suspect there is plenty of time and room for the US and its allies to attempt to sabotage anything that Russia does.

- I want an S-300 for Christmas from Putin-Claus, and I will immediately deliver it to the Palestinians.

- If Putin delivers the S-300 to Hezbollah, then the Israeli terrorist state will be shitting bricks.

Posted by: tom | Sep 26, 2015 4:51:30 AM | 3

I doubt that happens. Russia seems to act cautiously and in an effort to de-escalate tension. The only scenario where I could see that happening would be if Israel ignores Russia's demand to stay out of Syria and continues air attacks. The general consensus seems to be that Netanyahu isn't that crazy, but you never know.

Posted by: tom | Sep 26, 2015 4:51:30 AM | 3

Posted by: sleepy | Sep 27 2015 13:36 utc | 77

Toivos at 22 sees a kind of NATO-ification, if I may put it that way, of the Syria conflict facing a coalition of opponents (Russia, Iran, now China?, not to mention the HZB, etc. Note this coalition is ad hoc, on this one issue, and is understood as such by the parties.) And finds this serious, potentially very dangerous. Well he is right, absolutely, but I’m one of the ones who is still smoking ‘hopium’…

1) This was precisely the trap that was set for Putin in Ukraine. No dice.

2) The US (+ allies and poodles) has been wanting to bomb Syria (aka destroy the place and get rid of Assad) and have not managed, for what now, 4-5 years. They did send missiles once but these were intercepted and destroyed by the Russians iirc. (Didn’t make the news, much.) The US has been frustrated at every turn, which doesn’t stop the rethoric natch. Even the ‘chem attacks’ (Ghouta) did not work, and it is commonly agreed to that Russia saved the US’ bacon by proposing Assad surrender his chem weapons but there must have been more going on underground, this guff about chem-WMD was a face-saving move. The US backed off for other reasons, unknown to me. The face-saving was implemented not to spare the US but to enforce Russian power. Recall the Brit. Parliament voted against bombing Syria, a no-fly zone didn’t fly at the UNSC, etc.

3) (minor) The EU has exploited the ‘migrant’ crisis to gingerly ‘agree’ on resolving the ‘Syria matter’, drawing closer to Russia. (see also Lone Wolf at 58)

4) (more subtle) The US hysterical scare against jihadist muslim-vicious-terrorists is turned on its head and that is becoming TOO blatant.

Penelope at 44, yes, see this on the KSA-Isr. alliance:

conflicts forum weekly comment

http://tinyurl.com/p7rf9ly

Posted by: Noirette | Sep 27 2015 14:07 utc | 78

@75

' I thought that without the intervention of the US hegemon in Middle Eastern affairs that there would probably be no ISIS. '

Agree, absolutely. Syria was on the list of Islamic States to be demolished. Graham Fuller, the godfather of al-CIAda, helped evolve ISIS from al-CIAda using the Saudi/GCC bankroll, to help with the destruction of Syria and of Iraq and of Iran. ISIS is the creature of the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate ... well maybe he was more like the CIA's midwife and Graham Fuller the Daddy, maybe Granddaddy, but responsible. ISIS is like Rosemary's Baby. Erdogan has seen his chances and took 'em.

Posted by: jfl | Sep 27 2015 15:25 utc | 79

@79 Noirette

So that whole spiel about the Israeli generals 'liking' Assad as the friendly devil they know is old and has been pulled out (countless times!) before? Whew, I think this 'inside baseball' approach has too many layers of dissimulation for this poor ole county boy to follow, I'll have to revert to 'forget what it's said they say and watch what they do'. Still like to read your insights though.

Posted by: jfl | Sep 27 2015 15:33 utc | 80

The very sad part of the whole fiasco in Syria is the lack of Palestinians participating in combat right along the SAA & Hezeb'allah SHAME ON YOU IMPOTENT Palestinians after all if Syria falls there goes your Palestine!!! can't you Palestinians ORGANIZE,UNITE,TRAIN & ARM yourselves to become a force to be reckoned with?! I don't think so NOT TILL YOU DESOLVE Fateh and kick the actor Abbas and all those around him who have been ONLY a MYTH that was kept alive by the American CIA,FBI and state department dollars, wakeup,wakeup.wakeup...but i do believe its too late!

Posted by: Falesteeni | Sep 27 2015 15:58 utc | 81

Russian FM Lavrov, one of the architects of yet another Russian lifeline to Washington's disastrous policies in the ME, will have a tight schedule at the UNGA, on and off the corridors of power, with more than 50 meetings planned where he will be securing support for Russia's policies in Iraq & Syria. He is in charge of getting the international legal backing needed to substantiate Russia/China/Iran policy of containment in the ME.

“Lavrov will hold more than 50 meetings at various levels on the sidelines of the General Assembly,“ the source told RIA Novosti.

Lavrov is expected to meet NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier among others. The Russian diplomat will also meet Iranian and Syrian foreign ministers, Mohammad Javad Zarif and Walid Muallem, as well as the newly appointed Greek diplomat Nikos Kotzias, the source added.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Some good points, a bit old by now given the fast pace of events, but always useful to check M.K. Bhadrakumar (Indian Punchline) take on current, hot issues.

Europe nudges US, Russia to walk the talk on Syria

The remarks to the media by the British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and the visiting US Secretary of State John Kerry following their meeting in London on Saturday conveyed the sense of an overall easing of tensions between the West and Russia. This cannot but have ‘collateral’ effect on the search for solution to the Syrian conflict.

The positive trend will take time to get faithfully reflected in the ‘East-West’ rhetoric, since injured pride needs to be overcome on both sides. But the trend as such is noticeable in the remarks by Hammond and Kerry. In a refreshing turn to the ‘East-West’ discourse, Ukraine stands practically ‘delisted’ as a theatre of conflict or confrontation between the West and Russia. Neither Hammond nor Kerry used harsh language to criticize Russia.

In fact, both avoided making any critical remarks about Russia. Neither touched on the allegations regarding Russian presence on the ground in Donbass or brought up Crimea and the western sanctions. On the other hand, Kerry made it clear to Kiev that the Minsk agreement is the only game in town and urged everyone to get cracking on the full implementation of the accord. He even commended Russia’s moderating influence on the separatists in the Donbass. Indeed, Kerry endorsed the Normandy Format and he envisaged that “the full implementation of Minsk is the way to resolve the tensions that have existed between Russia and the West”...

...Interestingly, a day later, on Sunday at a joint press conference in Berlin, where Kerry proceeded, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeir said, “I strongly welcome the fact — and we’ve had reports here in Germany — about the growing Russian military engagement of Russia in the region”...

...Without doubt, this is a defining moment. Notwithstanding the immense pressure from detractors and critics within the US (and abroad in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, et al) to shift gear to a hyperactive interventionist role in Syria, President Obama has preferred the diplomatic track.

This primarily emanates out of the ground reality that the decade-old US strategy to force a regime change in Syria has reached a dead end.* Besides, the regional scenario has also changed phenomenally. Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the two countries that did all they could to destabilize Syria, are marooned in their own existential problems — and Qatar too has rolled back its regional ambitions built around the Muslim Brotherhood in the wake of the Arab Spring. In a dramatic shift, Egypt has actually swung to the Russian side and would see Assad as a bulwark against radical Islamist groups...

...What lies ahead? Kerry’s weekend visits to London and Berlin to consult key allies have prepared the ground for some intense discussions involving the various protagonists — Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, in particular — that can be expected to take place through the coming week in New York where the world leaders are gathering for the UN General Assembly session.

The manner in which the West has swiftly welcomed Russia’s military intervention in Syria underscores that a new chapter is beginning in their mutual relationship. This augurs well for conflict resolution in Syria. The bottom line is that the US’ trans-Atlantic leadership demands a quick solution to the Syrian conflict, which is threatening European security. In an extraordinary remark, Steinmeir actually urged all concerned — including the US — to “put aside national interests for the time being” and to rise to the occasion. (Transcript is here.)

A fresh breeze is blowing from Eurasia, cleansing the Western-created stench in the ME and beyond.

* Bolds are mine.


Posted by: Lone Wolf | Sep 27 2015 15:59 utc | 82

If you judge someone worthy of ICC prosecution, how can you present him as a needed partner in a transitional government? http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/27/assad-face-justice-stay-short-time-cameron-syria-un

Posted by: Daisee | Sep 27 2015 16:10 utc | 83

juannie @ 75

"…without Assad there would be no ISIS." Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia, heard on NPR

http://www.npr.org/2015/09/27/443896323/president-obama-and-putin-to-meet-for-the-first-time-in-2-years

Thanks for mentioning that. Hearing it made it impossible for me to get back to sleep, I was so pissed off at both the "analyst" and the NPR interviewer. Infuriating. McFaul must have been quite an effective ambassador…NOT.

Posted by: jawbone | Sep 27 2015 16:28 utc | 84

Daisee @ 84 says:

If you judge someone worthy of ICC prosecution, how can you present him as a needed partner in a transitional government

well, if you consider that the you who's doing the judging is guilty of exponentially larger crimes against humanity it all makes perfect sense.

Posted by: john | Sep 27 2015 16:38 utc | 85

2 points, I think the comments have many insights and are completely beside the point. There is no way to justify any foreign policy, it is not a playable game.

https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/02/06/high-dimensioned-games/

https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/09/17/lebowski-enlightenment-4/

And the propaganda has set us up for more horrendous history. and those are the danger, anti-Islam and mono-culturalism.

https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/09/21/germanys-jewish-problem/

https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/09/24/a-wonderful-life-in-a-world-wide-multi-culture/

https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/09/25/things-mono-culturalists-miss-out-on/

The spending is taking the US over the cliff. Nothing stops it, and having a foreign policy is stupid.

If you want to do something useful, argue to end the foreign policy, not about whether we are winning or losing. Of course we are losing, you losing by playing.

Posted by: lew | Sep 27 2015 16:47 utc | 86

There is a puzzling piece of news in Al Masdar: Russians take the command in East Aleppo, this is to connect SAA positions with ISIS to a surrounded airport. SAA was advancing, loosing ground and advancing back in the recent weeks. Why would Russians put their prestige behind an operation? Presumably they figure that (1) it can be done, and (2) the strategic effect would be large. Concerning (1), there were also news about a large redeployment of forces, and they can add a few of their own, saturate the area with survailance drones, and sustain an offensive for a week with the improved air support, which can be enough even if ISIS redeploys forces from other directions for the duration. Concerning (2), it would cut the width of ISIS territory to the west of Euphrates by half, to roughly 20 miles, and finishing the job, reaching the Euphrates, would isolate "safety zone" ISIS from the rest while connecting SAA positions to YPG in Kobane. This would be a major strategic change of the situation. No more supplies to ISIS from Turkey,

Politically, it is much better for an offensive assisted/directed by Russian to go against ISIS. If this is successful, it would be the largest advance against ISIS after Kobane and Tel-Abyad (if they reach Euphrates). Overland connection to YPG could put it firmly in the government coalition, mediated by Russians. There are no major towns in this direction, so air force and artillery can be deployed quite freely, and Russians could assure enough ammo (I would estimate a few shiploads, using WWII info, "one division on offensive needs one trainload per day", which is 1000 tons, ten big air cargoes. Of course, ammunition is different now, but it is not miniaturized. Or cheaper. The last concern makes China help enormously attractive if they are willing to unload a few thousand tons. Did they really coordinate with Putin? That would be enormously impressive, so I would withhold hope for a bit. Also, Russians probably think about Euphratus, but they would do it in a few hops to evaluate the situation first. For example, using drones for intelligence has a huge potential, but does it really work -- you would need hundreds of people trained to evaluate the videos in real time.

Concerning discussions with USA, Europeans, Turkey and so on, all of it is empty talk without military facts on the ground.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 27 2015 16:51 utc | 87

The refugees crisis was meant to force Europe to make a decision to support Turkey in it's actions to remove Assad (as have been said on this blog many times). But the decision made seems to have been the opposite of what Erdogan hoped would happen. In that regard the refugee crisis backfired on Erdogan.

Russia had to brought in because Assad trusts Russia much more than Assad trusts "the West". But I continue to believe that Assad has to & will be be replaced in the (near/distant) future. But that can only happen after peace has returned. And also requires the involvement of the iraqi government.

I am not sure how this is going to work out but this is certainly a VERY hopeful start after years of ill fated decisions. There're still too many moving parts to predict what the endresult is going to be. But it's a good start.

Posted by: Willy2 | Sep 27 2015 17:41 utc | 88

"West 'ignored Russian offer in 2012 to have Syria's Assad step aside' "

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-in-2012-to-have-syrias-assad-step-aside

Posted by: Willy2 | Sep 27 2015 17:51 utc | 89

Another bout of imprial amnesia:

http://fair.org/home/down-the-memory-hole-nyt-erases-cias-efforts-to-overthrow-syrias-government/

Posted by: Willy2 | Sep 27 2015 17:52 utc | 90

PB@88

You seem to be forgetting that there are about 100,000 non-Islamic State rebels attacking the Assad forces on multiple fronts right up to Damascus and the Russian bases. There is no chance that these forces will sit idle while Russia concentrates on the IS which is not threatening western Syria, yet.

Russia and the West seem to believe peace can be made with the Army of Conquest but I doubt that is possible so long as Assad is in power.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Sep 27 2015 17:59 utc | 91

@92 You seem to be forgetting that the largest 'rebel' group is Islamic Front ( Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya, Jaysh al-Islam, Suqour al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, Liwa al-Haqq, Ansar al-Sham, Kurdish Islamic Front etc.) and their stated goal is to establish an Islamic state.

Posted by: dh | Sep 27 2015 18:13 utc | 92

@37 PavewayIV

It's worth remembering that the Taliban came to the fore in part by rubbing off those depraved types.

What does the oh so smart and very, very very many book reading American commander do? Oh, we see what he does.
---

It's interesting to see the results of Russia's very patient foreign policy style. When you let the opponent play out his string, it's much easier to make intelligent choices.

Posted by: Crest | Sep 27 2015 18:35 utc | 93

#92 There are no 100,000 non-Islamist forces in Syria, at least military effective fighting forces. That is a sheer wet dream by "Assad must go" Western, Turkish and Gulf State backers of the Islamist forces that are carrying out the brunt of the fighting against Assad. Once those forces are defeated those non-Islamist forces you dream about will remain just that -- dreams.

Posted by: ToivoS | Sep 27 2015 18:47 utc | 94

@ jfl | 74

for FUKUS the hooligan arenas Syria and Iraq appeared remote, but - at least for Europeans - not any longer.
For one, IS, the single biggest or at least strongest jihadi-islamist force has connected Western Iraq and Eastern Syria as a single piece of territory beyond anybody else´s control which is quite sizable.
Without significant ground forces there is no chance to drive back IS. In case of Syria, the second major jihadi-islamist forces are Jaish al Fath and Jaish al Islam, whereby some factions (like Ahrar) are members of both and they are difficult to clearly seperate.
The hooligan theory comes to effect when Syria TOTALLY gets out of control, that means the moment the loyalist forces (SAA and allies) should break down. Then you have an arena encompassing half of Iraq and almost all of Syria in Jihadist hands.

The Jihadists will first go for the soft target Hizbollah but then either turn against the Iraqi Shias or go for the weak Jordanian monarchy. As late as that moment the Middle east is completely on fire, something even Saudi Arabia and Israel cannot wish seriously.

Posted by: KerKaraje | Sep 27 2015 19:30 utc | 95

Thank you very much for all the effort, to deliver us these excellent updates!

Posted by: Andy | Sep 27 2015 19:59 utc | 96

jawbone | 85

I was so pissed off at both the "analyst" and the NPR interviewer. Infuriating.

NPR = Nice Polite Republicans. NPR is no more reliable for dispensing truth than any other Mainstream Media outlet. It is propped up by a number of CIA front groups such as The MacArthur Foundation, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Ford Foundation, Carnegie, Rockefeller, Freedom House, etc.

http://12bytes.org/articles/exposed/npr-national-public-radio-or-national-propaganda-radio

Ford Foundation has an official administrative unit within it specifically for collaborating with the CIA, and the Foundation has been one of the single largest donors to the Council on Foreign Relations.
http://www.newsofinterest.tv/politics/media_issues/ford_cia_establishment.php

Posted by: fast freddy | Sep 27 2015 20:10 utc | 97

T@95

You misread my comment I said 'non-Islamic State' rebels, all the others are Sunni Islamists to greater and lesser degrees because they are all Sunni Muslims and the West trying to subdivide them is useful nonsense for local consumption in the US. Russia will have to face them at the same time they try to attack the IS.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Sep 27 2015 20:13 utc | 98

re 97

The Jihadists will first go for the soft target Hizbollah
That's rather bizarre. Hizbullah is hardly a soft target.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 27 2015 20:23 utc | 99

An interesting scenario Mistral/Egypt indeed.

I'd given up on the French, but perhaps they have found some balls after all.

Let's not confuse the complex issues du jour here.

This is not about 'owing' ships, but rather positioning, servicing and commissioning ships.

Where does Russia need these facilities deployed for the immediate future to most effect?

Certainly not in Vladivostok or hanging out in the Crimea growing barnacles.

Try the Suez Canal keeping it open for Chinese and Iranian trade and military supplies etc.

Added to which, it keeps a handy knife in the back of the Israeli apartheid state that has just been told to go sit in the corner and STFU while some adults get on with the real business in sorting out the ME mess set up by Uncle Sam.

Two hives of Ka-52 Alligator Attack Helicopters, one each end, is just what the new Middle East bosses need to oversee the region -- see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3O801sVuVo for the recon capabilities in addition to all weather 24/7 operation capacity.

Putin has shrewdly, with or without French assistance, sold two ships to Egypt and given SiSi a direct line into the new SCO region intel and rapid response force etc. With this the triangulation of the 'situation of concern' Cairo is linked directly into Tehran and Damascus and from there to Moscow and Beijing.

This is the game changer, imo, and well might the Europeans say (at last) via gay Paris: "F_ck the US!"

This is what Putin is nailing on the UN 'cathedral' door in NY next week.

The business bottom-line is: Russian services and support.
The quid pro quo is Egyptian (and perhaps French) geopolitical support or at least neutrality.
The geopolitical bottom line is: fast deployment cutting through any hysterical NATO response about "Russian expansionism" etc.

Imho, this is 'Check, mate!' .... if not 'Check Mate!'

And when they have proven it works in Syria & Iraq they will liberate Libya from NATO paradise.

Posted by: Outis in | Sep 27 2015 20:28 utc | 100

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