Syria: The (Russian Air) Cavalry Is Coming

September 11, 2015

In light of the catastrophic outcome of the "western" war on Libya the Russian government declared to oppose any further such "regime change" in the Middle East. But the U.S. continues to train, arm and finance insurgents against the Syrian Arab Republic and, under the disguise of fighting the Islamic State, prepares to take down the Syrian government. Eliminating the Syrian government would likely create a radical jihadist state in Damascus and lead to massacres and mass refugee movements.

But Russia means what it says and will now use its military capabilities to confront the U.S. plans:

Elijah J. Magnier
#Russia is providing #Syria with precision military and destructive equipment. #Russia will start soon operating n #Syria sky to hit rebels+

The participation of the #Russian Air Force in #Syria worries #Israel that won';t be able to have a free sky to hit Syrian troops.+

This is THE major change in #Russia approach and support to #Damascus regime, to prevent game change on the ground in #Syria +

The decision of #Russia comes mainly from regional support 2rebels, not satisfy w/ d north f #Syria (#Idlib) and aiming to #Hama & #Damascus

Russian air-support for Syria against the various forces attacking the state will allow for additional air attacks against those forces. The Syrian air force is today already flying more than 100 sorties per day against it enemies. The Russian forces will add to that but not necessarily in a decisive amount.

The main support for Syria by Russian air assets will come by keeping away those foreign air forces forces that threaten the Syrian government under disguise of "fighting terror". With Russian fighters in Syrian skies Israel will no longer be able to use its air force in support of Jabhat al-Nusra (and for its oil stealing endeavors in the Syrian Golan heights).

The U.S., Britain, France and others announced to enter Syrian skies to "fight the terror" of the Islamic State. Russia will use just the same claim to justify its presence and its air operations flying from Latakia. Simply by being there it will make sure that others will not be able to use their capabilities for more nefarious means. Additional intelligence from Russian air assets will also be helpful for Syrian ground operations.

The Russian air capabilities will be supplemented with air defense cover from Russian naval assets on the Syrian coast. Russia announced several air defense drills with live missile launches off the Syrian coast near Tartus. New land based air defense assets are said to be on their way. I would not be surprised to see, over time, some Chinese naval assets joining the Russian presence.

Secretary of State Kerry whined to Russia that its intervention in Syria might intervene with the U.S. intervention in Syria. Well, yes sir, that is the sole purpose:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday coordination was needed between Russia's military and the Pentagon to avoid "unintended incidents" around Syria, where both countries have a military presence.

Lavrov said Russia would continue to supply weapons to Syrian President Bashar Assad to help the Syrian armed forces fight against ISIS militants.

He told a news conference Russia was conducting military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, that it had been for some time, and that they were in line with international law.

The neoconned State Department childishly pressured Greece and Bulgaria to disallow Russian military air transport over their countries. But Russian planes can just as well fly via Iran and Iraq and both countries are very unlikely to ever block such flights. As Russian ground forces will not be involved in any fighting the supply needs can be kept limited.

Any attempt by Turkey, pressured by State Department lunatics, to block the Bosporus sea route between Russia and Syria would be in breach of the Montreux Convention and could be interpreted as hostile act against Russia on which Turkey depends for a large amount of its energy supplies. After losing control over the predominantly Kurdish south-eastern city Cizre Turkey also has to take care of its own civil war which Erdogan foolishly ignited to regain a parliamentarian majority. That internal war will hinder resupplies for the Islamic State through Turkey.

The U.S. plan to use the fight against the Islamic State as cover to remove the Syrian government is now in tatters. The months long U.S. supported "Southern Front" attack in south Syria failed to make any gains against the government. The Islamic State attack against Syrian government forces in Deir ez-Zor was repelled and further moves against Syria in the north will have to defy Russian air power.

Washington will now have to decide to risk war against Russia or to shelf the Syria regime change project.

Posted by b on September 11, 2015 at 13:32 UTC | Permalink

Comments

I think you should move that showboat down the river.

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 14 2015 11:50 utc | 101

A war criminal and a house negro certainly, though I know Harry Belafonte wouldn’t call him a monkey, though he might call you one. And if so, he’d be aiming a little too high on the evolutionary scale.

Posted by: guest77 | Sep 14 2015 12:31 utc | 102

Concerning supplies for taqfiris from Turkey: perhaps the plan is to score some victories against taqfiris, especially in north and northeast of Latakia province and Idleb, and against ISIS in Palmyra, relieving the besieged Shia villages from pressure, and perhaps, the siege (not easy on short notice), and dent the popularity of Erdogan among the Islamists and nationalists before the comming elections.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 14 2015 16:19 utc | 103

further to 78, 100 —
But I would be remiss if, on behalf of my half-Hebrew cousins, I did not wish you all a Happy New Year. L’chaim Barflies!

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 14 2015 23:03 utc | 104

So funny that a man who got 88.9 percent of the vote in the last election and who has MIG’s and armored helicopters at his disposal, plus Hezbollah’s fighters at his disposal, has not been able to put down a “takfiri” rebellion made up of heart-munching fanatics who yell “Alluah Akbar” so often. So who does Assad recruit if the Russian intervention does not suffice? South African mercenaries? Militias from Golden Dawn and Jobbik who are big fans of the Kremlin’s legendary anti-imperialist leader?

Posted by: Louis Proyect | Sep 15 2015 1:16 utc | 105

in re 106 —
You forgot to add they were fanatics well-stocked with Wahabi and neo-conservative arms and money and backed by NATO/Gulf State diplomatic and air support.

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 15 2015 6:21 utc | 106

And what about this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/world/middleeast/russian-moves-in-syria-widen-role-in-mideast.html
No. I think Russia knows very well that the Assad government(/regime) is “toast”. Yes, they will keep propping up Syria in an attempt to delay the inevitable. Delaying the inevitable serves another objective: Putting more pressure on Turkey and Europe (think refugees) and increase the tensions between Europe & the US. Well, in that regard Russia is playing a similar cynical game like the US.
Turkey’s economy is a basket case and that will make it ineviatble that Erdogan’s days are numbered.

Posted by: Willy2 | Sep 15 2015 13:28 utc | 107

Re: Louis Proyect, “So funny that …”
I prefer fun not based on thousands lives lost and millions lives wrecked. A more thoughtful analysis would start from examining cases of similar terrible conflicts in the past and present. Mexican revolution lasted ten years of “war of all against all”, and so did La Violencia in Colombia. Violence is still present in those societies even if governments are quite stable — and sketchily democratic. Algeria had a conflict of similar duration, now the regime seems to be stable again.
Americans (“American-led coalition”) did not lack resources in Afghanistan and Iraq, and results were woeful. The prognosis of GCC + USA + mercenary allies in Yemen is not good at all, even with “reasonable goal of restoring to power the legitimate President who won elections with 99.8% votes cast and 65% turnout” and all weapons that oil money can buy (although those monies were stashed in better years than 2015).
The positive stories are Algeria and various regimes that survived ethnic and other rebellions, usually (not always) with Western aid. Three ingredients may be crucial: domestic force with a sufficiently wide base and military competence, supplies of war material, and restricting those supplies to the opponents. Iraq has widely based government of mediocre competence, Syrian government seems to have narrower base (but not an isolated small elite group) but it demonstrated much higher level of competence.
Given that Syrian government had modest resources and yet survived and brought the insurgency more-or-less to stalemate, in spite of copious supplies that it got, it is reasonable to expect that with somewhat larger external resources it can actually win. By the way of contrast, if we eliminate “the regime”, the governability of Syria is very questionable, given the record of atrocities AND infighting among the opposition. Mad Max movies give an almost prophetic depiction of what can be expected.
Of course, the West can easily increase the supplies to the opposition forces, But the sober question asked here if this is a good idea: fomenting a number of atrocious wars for some vague and contradictory goals. It is worth to observe that we do not have any Iron Curtain any more, so atrocious problems created “on the other side” trickle to “our side”. Also, if simply doing nothing is more humane and decent than the current course of action, one should expeditiously stop funding and otherwise facilitating the supply of weapons and recruits to rebels in Syria and Iraq, and drop embargoes affecting the government of Syria, and we can get Algerian solution, perhaps more democratic, perhaps less, hopefully much better governance than in Egypt. If the Islamists of Turkey would loose face and power in the process, it could be a huge bonus.
Turkey shows Western dilemma starkly: we start from “exporting freedom” and we end up importing police state.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 15 2015 23:27 utc | 108

I realize the title invokes the Russian air cavalry, but there is news of th US 82nd Airborne as well …
How I met the man who became the Islamic State’s military No. 1

… we noticed that several members of the unit had American military Combat Infantryman Badges on their right shoulders from the 82nd Airborne. To defuse the tension, I pulled out my American passport and declared that they couldn’t arrest comrades they’d fought alongside, as I had done numerous embeds with the 82nd in Iraq, where some of these men had been stationed earlier that year.
Laughter ensued, and the soldiers insisted on posing with me, my passport and their commander – who did not have an American patch and had not been to Iraq – for a funny photo that was immediately forgotten for six years.
I remembered the photo when the first pictures of the man now known as Abu Omar al Shishani were released last year. He was the commander of the unit who’d detained us, a fact confirmed by half a dozen people who’ve seen our picture and know him personally.

Abu Omar al Shishani is apparently Tarkhan Batirashvili who, like the viceroy of Odessa – and soon to be premier of Ukraine? – is a Georgian.
He commanded the 82nd Airborne, for Georgia against the Russians, in Georgia … and is now commanding the 82nd Airborne again, for ISIS/Daesh against the Russians, in Syria?

Posted by: jfl | Sep 16 2015 6:12 utc | 109

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