Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 04, 2015

Syria: Negotiating Ethnic Cleansing And A Temporary Partition

The U.S. has no interest to defeat the Islamic State or to end the conflict in Syria and Iraq. Instead it is following a policy, successfully so far, which is designed to split Syria as well as Iraq into autonomous statelets which later may or may not realign into loose confederacies. There are now attempts to somewhat formalize that situation.

Many of the recently inserted 60 Pentagon trained mercenaries are by now captured, wounded or dead. Last night Jabhat al-Nusra captured another five of them. Mary Wheeler thinks that the whole theater around these few idiots was possibly just a fake to find a reason for the declaration of a U.S. imposed no-fly zone over north Syria. An illegal invasion of Syria to justify an even more illegal U.S. annexation of Syrian land and air space.

Media accounts describe the 60 fighters as the "first U.S. trained rebels". The 10,000 Syrian and foreign mercenaries the CIA trained and equipped since at least 2012 at a cost of $1 billion per year are conveniently put down the memory hole. The many more jihadis financed, trained and equipped by Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar who went to join the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra are also missing from such accounts. The media insist that the whore's just born seventh child originates from an immaculate conception.

The U.S. may, for now, get its wish for a splintered Syria and Iraq. After four years of a massive onslaught from outside actors the Syrian government is no longer able to control all of the country. It needs to buy time to recuperate resources and wait for a major change in international policies. There has been a flurry of diplomacy recently, mostly pushed by Russia, to somewhat formalize the current situation.

The chief of the Syrian intelligence was recently in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi chief of intelligence will visit Syria at the end of the month. The Russia foreign minister Lavrov met several parties in Moscow and over the last two days in Doha. He spoke with the Syrians, with Hamas, with the leader of the U.S. proxy Syrian exile group, with Hizbullah, with Qatari and Saudi liaisons to Jabhat al Nusra and the Islamic State as well as with secretary of state Kerry. The Syrian foreign minister Muallem and the Russian deputy foreign minister Bogdanov will soon touch down in Tehran.

There are certainly some deeper discussion about longer term issues going on but one of the more urgent negotiating points is the fate of some 40,000 Shia Syrians in two insurgent besieged towns just north of Idlib. These are under daily artillery barrage from Nusra and other jihadi groups and the humanitarian situation in Kafraya and Al-Fou’aa is dire. The Syrian army currently supplies the towns by air and local forces so far held off all attack but there is no way to relief the towns from the ground and no longer term solution. Meanwhile Hizbullah is besieging and operating against several hundred jihadis in Zabadani near the Lebanese border. Unlike in earlier operations Hizbullah will not let any of its enemies flee from this cauldron.

A complicate deal is in the making that would exchange the besieged 40,000 civilians in Kafraya and Al-Fou’aa for the militants in Zabadani. Such a deal would be a "negotiated ethnic cleansing". There are many parties involved including Hizbullah and Jabhat al Nusra and the exchange would take place under the supervision of the United Nations. Nothing is fixed yet and transferring such a huge number of people through enemy territory and lines will be difficult to achieve.

Should the deal go through and the evacuations successfully executed a model would have been found that could then be repeated in other areas. In the end some homogenous territories would be defined, each under rule of one armed entity, and some of the fighting over enclaves would die down.

But that state would be far from peace. The fighting would continue along internal border areas with no side giving up yet on its maximalist aims. Neither the more secular Sunnis nor the Alawi, Shia, Kurds or the Druze want independent statelets. They want to be Syrians. The Syrian government will reassert itself, if needed with the help of Russian paratroopers. The war will still go on for a long time.

Posted by b on August 4, 2015 at 13:48 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Between BLOCKHEAD and Wayoutofabrain, MoA's brain power is seriously eroding to a very deficient IQ level, @ -300 at least? I think b should take into account that keeping full-time idiots posting on his blog is a detriment to a serious conversation on the important issues he comments. Just some food for thought.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Aug 6 2015 15:49 utc | 101

Wayoutwest @ 100 says:

I thought we merely had a Confederation of Dunces here who would report this obvious BS story but now that they are doubling down and referencing nutters such as Tarpley...

telling, though, how Tarpley takes 45 minutes to explain why he thinks this obvious BS story isn't BS whereas from Wayoutwest we get...well, we don't get anything at all, but a few flaccid affirmations.

and regarding the:

...pack of Persian Running Dogs...

well, no comment.

Posted by: john | Aug 6 2015 18:48 utc | 102

@Lone Wolf, 81:

Yes I'm still around, just a busy Summer. I've been "actively lurking" though, very much taking in the discussions on Greece/Eurozone and Turkey/Middle East.

Between atrocities, testing new tactics and involvement of non-nationals in what are ostensibly civil wars, the Ukraine is shaping up in some ways, and the Middle East in others, as the Spanish Civil War of this century.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Aug 6 2015 19:37 utc | 103


From reading the press outside the Western world, the common believe is that US policy is to dominate the world militarily, economically and (culturally if possible). It is not viewed a wishful thinking by the US and the desire to do so was accelerated/promoted with less fan fair during Obama regime with blood on many hands the blood of women and children of Gaza, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and so on with no remorse.
The believe that this policy is carved in stones long time ago and placed in front of every decision makers in the State Dept., Pentagon, NSA, CIA etc. (a challenge for this forum is to name someone in key position in those departments who is not hostile to Arabs, Iranians, Russian, Chinese, Latin Americans ). Strategies developed was and will continue to be implemented regardless who is sitting in the white house. Countries that stand in the way will be targeted for annihilation (Syria, Iran, Yemen, Libya, Russia, ) even after they ask for forgiveness (Gadhafi). The program and the process is will established with recipes that could be modified slightly to accommodate a given president public posture, Bush – “bring them on”, Obama “red lines” based on false report, “Assad is magnet for terrorist” “no boots on the ground”.
From that point of view it is not surprising when we hear about how Obama and the next president is going to use the deal, inspections, and false flags to destabilize and attack Iran’s infrastructure (attack on nuclear facility is a small part of it) to push them back to the stone age as the Israelis did in Gaza, Saudis in Yemen and others in Syria and Libya. Many observed that the most clever list of deceptions and misinformation used by the white house, state department, CIA, etc. are:
1-False Intelligence led us to this and that, we trusted informants, 2- The boggy man used Chemical Weapons against his people, 3-we are defending our allies against Russia, China, Iran aggression, 4- Major disagreement between us and Israel on Iran Deal and our Middle East policy (read Palestinians and two state soltion). 5- we must arm our allies in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, South East Asia to defend themselves (here we are taking about Trillions which may sound as good economics on the surface ( need a study to prove that). Of Course the Major Media and paid consultants echo, recite and amplified the above with no shame and questions asked.

Posted by: DanE | Aug 6 2015 19:59 utc | 104

So it looks like the Syrian war is going to go on for ever. Sad for the Syrians, but I suppose better than being taken over by ISIS, or their equivalents in al-Nusra.

Posted by: Laguerre | Aug 6 2015 20:01 utc | 105

I would dispute that the story of "negotiated ethnic cleansing" was BS, apparently such a plan was mooted, but right now it is moot, rejected by all potential parties to the deal. Sending mix signals happens everywhere, but in ME region it is a more universal part of local customs than, say, shawarma. The plan reminds me a joke about Napoleon and a city mayor. Upon entering a town and being greeted by the locals, Emperor ask why he was not greeted by a gun salute. The mayor replied "I am terribly sorry, Sire, but we had twenty reasons. First, we have no canons", "Enough." interrupted the Emperor. So here we had an actual plan, but will little snags of being totally unwanted and impossible to execute.

One could instead speculate how could it come to pass that smallish groups of moderates were sent to obviously untenable locations if they could be sent to places where they could actually do some good, Afrin or Kobane. Even without being bombed, al-Nusra takes dim view of armed groups that to not promise allegiance, which is precisely why it is more successful than more "liberal" jihadist umbrellas; a number of groups that were not strongly connected to the West experienced more or less the same fate. OTOH, there could be three reasons, and we do not have enough information to do more than speculate.

Apart from ISIL, everything moves there at the very slow clip. ISIL seems to perfect a combination of very fast attacks with the followed of dogged defense, but everybody who still survives in Syria is pretty good at dogged defense. There is also a long list of the less lucky. I tried to estimate how much it would take to change the balance of this excrutiating war. 100 thousands fighters would need at least one billion per year in cash payments and, I would guess, at least 10 times more to pay for ammunition. So the bill would be an addition ten billion greenbucks per year, which is quite an amount at the time of low revenues and additional pre-occupations (like Donbass for Russians, Yemen for Saudis, Iraq for Iranians. And since oil is low, all those countries have tight bug From the point of view of the players in the region, that takes ten billion dollars not a paltry amount (and speculative at that).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Aug 6 2015 21:29 utc | 106

Moronika for Morons! Lead on, B'Head Hailstone!

. . . . and on, . . . . and on, . . . and on . . .

Regardless.

It's like reading. . . . spew.

Nice tight spread though.

Posted by: rufus magister | Aug 6 2015 22:21 utc | 107

U tell em, rufie!

The Clown Posse rules!

And dont you mo'fos forget it!

Posted by: href | Aug 7 2015 9:14 utc | 108

Lone Wolf at 101: "Between BLOCKHEAD and Wayoutofabrain, MoA's brain power is seriously eroding to a very deficient IQ level, @ -300 at least? I think b should take into account that keeping full-time idiots posting on his blog is a detriment to a serious conversation on the important issues he comments. Just some food for thought."

No, just some suggestions for censorship. Your main and dubious contribution on this thread was @34, where you relayed _credulously_ a very unlikely report that Putin had bawled out the Turkish ambassador and issued an ultimatum to Erdogan. I politely disagreed and you responded nicely (thanks!) and began backtracking.

Blockquote instead ridiculed you and you responded by ridiculing him. Blockquote then inexplicably ridiculed Magister and so Mag responded in kind. Seems people need to stop ridiculing each other and instead to contribute substantive posts. Can Blockquote do that? I don't know but I hope so.

Wayoutwest is a different matter. He is a committed ideologue and has that sort of impermeability and those sorts of blindspots, but he's smart and argues honestly when he does argue, and so he's enjoyable to disagree with. He keeps the general consensus here on its toes.

Posted by: fairleft | Aug 7 2015 11:06 utc | 109

Jesters Rule!

Posted by: rufus magister | Aug 7 2015 11:42 utc | 110

Go Clowns!

Posted by: href | Aug 7 2015 12:15 utc | 111

BLOCKQUOTE & Wayoutofabrain are both perhaps one and the same, but probably not.

But their desperation to double down on the Neocon propagand is coming in the heels of the Iran Deal and the torrent of incriminating information that USA, Israel (together with their junior allies) provides the oxygen for Al Qaeda / ISIS / FSA / Al Nusra terror networks.

Two Hasbarites, that do not understand that the global resistance against USA's imperialism, goes beyond Assad. They can howl, spit and wave their arms until kingdom come, a new chapter will begin, and the push (even domestically, inside the US) back of US murderous policies globally and especially the middle east, will only accelerate - this is making Israel shaking in fear.

That is why we will see much more screaming and spitting, lying and propagand by folks such as BLOCKQUOTE & Wayoutofabrain - voiced desperation by exceptionally chosen people.

Posted by: Stefan | Aug 7 2015 12:39 utc | 112

what I really like is the fiendishly clever scheme conjured up by Clown-Posse founder-member Foxy wherein he thinks that if he uses the name "Stefan" no one will notice it's him, making a fool of himself . . . . . as usual

Clown Posse Rulezz!!

Posted by: BLOCKQUOTE | Aug 7 2015 13:08 utc | 113

BLOCKQUOTE@113

I am Stefan everywhere, I am also active on Consortiumnews ( do a google search, Stefan from Sweden).

I have no idea who Foxy is, but I think I am getting a pretty good idea of WHAT you are.

The end of an era is upon us, and the noise from folks like you is defining it.

Posted by: Stefan | Aug 7 2015 14:07 utc | 114

The end of an era is upon us, and the noise from folks like you is defining it.

Posted by: Stefan | Aug 7, 2015 10:07:22 AM | 114

Wow who knew that disparaging Tarpley while laughing at the antics of the local Clown Posse could have such momentous consequences?

My bad.

Posted by: Blockquote | Aug 7 2015 14:22 utc | 115

114

That's funny cos you sound exactly like the local clown Posse do when they go off their meds, and start ranting about "hasbara" just before they go into full-on melt-down mode.

your rant at 112 bears little or no resemblance to reality and given that this after all MOA, therefore I naturally assumed you were a fully paid up member of the local Clown Posse Kollectiv.

Perhaps you should consider submitting an application, post haste?

I'm sure they'd love to have you, as you do seem particularly well suited

Posted by: Blockquote | Aug 7 2015 14:33 utc | 116

BLOCKQUOTE@116

Posted by: Stefan | Aug 7 2015 15:09 utc | 117

Blockquote @ 116

I read MoonOfA and occasionally comment on the boards, because the information provided here is a breath of fresh air in the flood of zionist and neocon propaganda.

You seem to enjoy spending hours on a site that you consider offers information and analysis of no value - frequently visited by people whom you call "clowns".

Why?

I personally think that you are afraid of the information being published here, and that your objective is to use any possible means and tactics to smear people, obfuscate facts and ruin any meaningful discussion.

Although, I am pleased that this site is attracting characters like you, because those who visit this site for a serious discussion on rotten USA (and israeli hijacked US policy) will also easily decrypt your dubious presence here.

Posted by: Stefan | Aug 7 2015 15:18 utc | 118

  • whiny accusations of "hasbara" - check
  • Vague unconnected mumblings about neo-cons and zionists - check
  • Retarded accusations that questioning Tarpley leads to support for the US (or some such nonsense) - check

    "Stefan", you score very very high on the Clown Posse Quotient

    If not already a member you really really should consider joining.

Posted by: Blockquote | Aug 7 2015 15:57 utc | 119

@118 Good try Stefan but it's pointless analysing foff's motives. He (?) is an international man of mystery. He may only come here to demonstrate his identity changing skills.

He will now tell you how boring I am.

Posted by: dh | Aug 7 2015 16:57 utc | 120

Is there something MORE boring than feeding trolls?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 7 2015 17:34 utc | 121

@121 Well the thread is effectively dead anyway Hoarse so I thought I might sneak in a quickie.

Posted by: dh | Aug 7 2015 17:41 utc | 122

Uhh, why is blockquote, an obvious troll, not banned?

Posted by: aaaaa | Aug 7 2015 17:43 utc | 123

further to 124 -- Yow!

I deserve some grief on that one, always preview.

Posted by: rufus magister | Aug 7 2015 22:35 utc | 125

99
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/us-destroying-europe

Posted by: Chipnik | Aug 8 2015 8:03 utc | 126

Lone Wolf: "I don’t think Putin’s aim is to incorporate the takfiris into that coalition." I think that in any reasonable definition of a taqfiri, taqfiri would not want to join any coalition that would include Assad and a long list of others, Shia, Sunnis who do not follow Hanbali fiqh etc. Actually, the last was a surprise to me, because I thought that Wahhabis and Deobandis are more or less the same (Taliban is Deobandi), but no! Deobandis follow Hanafi fiqh and Wahhabi, Hanbali. And theological schism between al-Qaeda and ISIL is about tolerating non-Hanbalis or not.

On practical level, some "rebel" units operated under the command of YPG, at least in Kobane canton. I was wondering where they could come from, graduates of American training? That would make too much sense to be possible, so I guess those are groups that fled ISIL and/or al-Nusra. Perhaps such groups could form a Sunni part of a coalition.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Aug 11 2015 18:56 utc | 127

124

Imitation is of course the sincerest form of flattery.

But even the simple task of imitation, when combined with something as simple as c&p seems somewhat beyond your obviously limited capabilities

Posted by: blockquote | Aug 14 2015 12:37 utc | 128

Thank you, Mary Poppins. You are practically perfect in every way.

Posted by: rufus magister | Aug 14 2015 22:13 utc | 129

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