by Harm Bengen
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July 12, 2015
Greece: Schaeuble’s Track
Comments
How anybody can still fawn for Tsipras is beyond me. What a complete and utter duplicitous joke. The Greeks should be massing in the millions right now to replace the government. Yes this would be just like Kiev, but at least throwing him out would be a be in their better interest.
Posted by: DamascusFalling | Jul 14 2015 13:07 utc | 101
Chipnik at 100 😉 Geez, I hate to return to this topic again and repeat myself.
Yeah I could (should?) be muttering Tsipras is a joke. So he is. I don’t admire him. But this is what you get…PASOK collapsed / threw in the towel because they could not guarantee ‘more austerity.’
The Greek voter (aka the ‘anti-austerity’ block, probably a good majority in view of the Oxi vote) was left with the choice of Syriza (hyper populist center-left) – who ran on an anti-austerity platform – ANEL, Communists, and Golden Dawn. Unsurprisingly, Syriza won. Which turned out into a Gift from God to the Troika, as, instead of facing conciliatory wink-wink authorities who shuffled about, temporised, did the ‘right thing’ were suddenly faced with weak opposition. This spurred the Troika to righteous anger and turned them into attack dogs.
Syriza is composed for a large part of ex-Pasok and ex-Communists. It is very similar to some Socialist Parties (for ex. in France, completely married to the EU .. opposition to the Euro/EU comes from the FN, splinter Nationalists, not from the Left Front..)
Syriza types are middle-class with University degrees, and embedded (par la force des choses) in the Greek political landscape. They were, are, also quite isolated, in the sense of ‘little comprehension, little experience’ and ‘no external support’..
Hoping that Syriza / Tsipras and Yanis V. could stand up to the Troika, the EU sect in Brussels, Germany, International Banking, US interests, and on and on, was vain. This illusory hope made the situation worse.
Did Syriza or its leaders deliberately set out to crush Greece and effect more austerity, more debt peonage? I said not so… Is Tsipras a traitor? No, imho, he is a person caught up in a political maelstrom and was not valiant/smart/etc. enough, if you want. He had a mandate to negotiate what the Greeks hoped for.
Posted by: Noirette | Jul 14 2015 15:24 utc | 102
This is what the American antiwar.com Libertarians are putting out on the Greeks. They seem to be singing in harmony with the Germans, although I didn’t get past the first paragraph. At least they are antiwar. That puts them ahead of the pwogs.
Posted by: jfl |
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@jfl you act like the greeks are innocent victims who are dying in the streets. No, that would be Ukrainians during the Holomodor, or various Africans or Syrians this very moment.
They have a society that was rife with corruption and unsound fiscal practices. Why should they be pitied by Germany, who already made the dumb decision of extending them more debt.?!
Germany wants Greece out, Greece voted no.. let it be done. They can issue their own currency and be forced into the BRICS sphere for survival
Posted by: DamascusFalling | Jul 14 2015 15:33 utc | 103
@103
‘ They have a society that was rife with corruption and unsound fiscal practices. ‘ Isn’t that ‘ We have a society that is rife with corruption and unsound fiscal practices. ‘ ?
The German/French banksters’ decisions, Goldman Sachs’ decisions, the decisions of all the usual suspects to extend the Greeks’ debt … and then fob off their toxic paper on the European taxpayer – and return wearing ‘enforcer’ hats in ‘the name of the European people’ … were very profitable decisions. All enabled by the corrupt system that ‘accidentally’ just ‘fell into place’. Somehow.
Finance in the West is a racket, to borrow Smedley Butler’s phrase. Now formally weaponized by the bankster controlled US government. The antiwar libertarians are ‘somehow’ unable to see the financial war … because it’s so profitable for the pirate – I mean ‘private’ – sector?
Posted by: jfl | Jul 14 2015 19:03 utc | 104
@102
I agree. Thanks for your patient explanations of what we can all see to have happened. Things are beyond the state of being able to be muddled through by the n’er say change political class – citizen awareness and involvement have to be increased, and not just in Greece.
Whether Syriza organizes it or the people organize it themselves there must be another referendum on Syriza’s product and more direct citizen involvement in deciding their own fate when its result is known. Challenging the citizens of the rest of the European states to become more directly involved, to understand and to straighten out this problem in a manner that may be more widely applicable than ‘just’ to Greece, would be the Athenian way to approach the problem at this point, according to me at any rate.
And then the historians can dissect and analyse the failings of the system up until the turning point of citizen involvement that led to the solution.
Posted by: jfl | Jul 14 2015 19:21 utc | 105
New IMF report on Greek debt is scathing. Upshot: Greece needs substantial debt forgiveness or repayment hiatus of 30 years. Scuttlebutt: this “secret” report was released so that IMF can wash their hands / remove their involvement in Greek debt matters.
Consider:
1. The Germans/Europe refused to help finance Ukraine when the US was seeking tens of billions. IMF has its hands full with Ukraine, for which it is now proving funding “in arrears”. Good luck with that.
2. The Greek debt deal only kicks the can. Europe is essentially carrying the debt and compounding the problem. Will Europe be any better prepared to handle the problem is 3 years? IMF probably doesn’t want to be the greater fool of last resort.
Will IMF non-involvement be a deal-breaker or an excuse to break the deal? It may be that one of the European parliaments don’t approve of the deal – using the IMF Report/IMF non-involvement as an excuse.
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It is funny, in a gallows humor sorta way, that the new ‘deal’ talks about the Greeks ‘owning’ the problem. Well, when you owe the bank $300,000, you have a problem. When you owe the bank $300 billion dollars, the bank has a problem. The debt is a problem for Europe, and especially for Germany.
Schauble’s “temporary ejection” suggestion may be used on Germany itself at some future date. A German ‘timeout’/adjustment is probably more appropriate for the Eurozone than one for any of the PIIGS. Many economists (and IMF is full of economists) already know (and have spoken) of this. Its only a matter of time before this understanding filters into the thinking of political leaders.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 15 2015 3:08 utc | 106
Regarding Tsipras/Syriza:
It is a bad deal. There was not going to be any ‘good deal’. The can was kicked. But if you understand that the debt is a problem for Europe/Germany and will lead to restructuring that may include a German ‘timeout’ and a better future outcome, then maybe it is not as bad as it seems.
The third bailout provides funding that is essentially creditors paying themselves. And the pressure for debt restructuring has been recognized and will not likely lessen.
To their credit, Tsipras/Varaoufakis did not fold in February. The risked much on principle and with virtually no support/allies. The referendum was a desperate move and an unexpected positive that led to support from France, Italy, US/IMF, and others.
I don’t see Tsipras as a betrayer or Syriza as weak. I see Greece as preparing for GRexit if they don’t get substantial debt relief before the end of this 3-year bailout. And possibly drawing in other countries in a effort to force a ‘timeout’ on Germany (or EZ reforms that amount to the same thing).
Thus, it wouldn’t surprise me if the current Greek governing coalition survives (with Tsipras as PM) and focuses on their domestic, anti-oligarch agenda.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 15 2015 3:34 utc | 107
Reiterating:
Schauble’s preference for GRexit is understandable given that the Greek debt problem will only return with a vengeance in the not-too-distant future (with Germany on the hot seat).
The IMF Report supports the Greek position on debt restructuring BUT may be the excuse for one or more Eurozone parliament (other than Greece or Germany) to nix the deal. One can make a good argument that THAT is the likely outcome.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 15 2015 4:17 utc | 108
You don’t see Tsipras as a betrayer? He sh!t on the referendum after completely botching whatever poker hand that he had.
Furthermore, why should Germany, Slovakia, Austria, Finland, Romania, etc fit the bill for Greece’s (and exposed foreign banks’) debts?
Greece either has to give up a lot to maintain their EUrope privileges, or they default and weather it along with Germany, who should’ve prepared for a Grexit hit over the past xxx months anyway
Posted by: aaaaa | Jul 15 2015 11:59 utc | 109
Tell us what you really think!
The Euro Summit Agreement Annotated by Yanis Varoufakis
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 15 2015 16:20 utc | 110
aaaaa @109
I think ‘betrayer’ connotes malice and is not technically accurate. Tsipras is more like Chamberlain, bringing home a faulty “peace for our time”. But this compromise is malignant.
Tsipras told the Greek people before the referendum that an OXI would strengthen his negotiating position – that it was NOT a vote for GRexit. I think in his mind, a GRexit that is forced by the Greek side would be a ‘betrayal’ of this ‘promise’.
Lastly, he said in yesterday’s interview that this is an Agreement that he doesn’t agree with. His remarks drew rebuke from the Germans. Tsipras’ truthfulness is very unlike what one would expect from a ‘betrayer’.
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The Summit Agreement is toxic. It is humiliating to the Greek people and will tarnish Greek MPs that vote for it just as the US Congresspeople that voted for the Iraq War were forever tarnished. But it may be WORSE for Europe as it virtually guarantees an existential crisis for the EU when the Greek debt problem rebounds at some point in the future. And so, because it guarantees a future crisis, it is actually more appealing for Greece than the EZ/Troika as Greece would likely benefit from a future all-EU/EZ re-negotiation as part of an EU/EZ revamp (why fold when odds favor an improved hand?).
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But the future risks to Europe of a magnified problem are unlikely to go unnoticed by the other European Parliaments that must approve the Agreement. After the IMF Report, it seems very likely that one or more of these fail to approve. (And Merkel/Schauble will no doubt be pleased that the cause of a GRexit can not be laid at Germany’s door)
Ironically, Greek MPs are now in the same position as the Greek people at the referendum. Voting on a measure that technically doesn’t exist!!
Will they malign their reputations by voting ‘FOR’ implementation? Tsipras seems to be willing to understand Syriza MPs objection to doing so (as he himself has said that it is a deal that he disagrees with).
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 15 2015 18:02 utc | 111