Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 15, 2015

As Propaganda Fails Baghdadi Announces A Bigger 9/11

The propaganda war in Iraq and Syria is shifting into a higher gear.

The U.S. led International Coalition for Operation Inherent Resolve against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria announced on May 9:

DAESH defeated in al-Anbar – DAESH was beaten in Ramadi, Kurma, and Tharthar.#CJTFOIR

Well, not so fast. There were also rumors that the Caliph Baghdadi, the head of the Islamic State, was incapacitated and that his number two was killed in an air strike. The death of the Baathist leader of the Naqshbandi Order Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri had also been announced. Al-Douri's men had fought together with the Islamic State in its first big offense in Iraq but were shunned as soon as the Islamic State took over Mosul.

Today it turned out that none of those propagandized successes was sustained:

The Islamic State on Friday took control of the provincial government center of Ramadi, the capital of Iraq’s largest province, in a major defeat for the Iraqi government.

Islamic State forces also appeared to be closing in on two other key locations in Anbar province, the towns of Baghdadi and Kharma, in a broad offensive that if successful would end the government presence in any of the province’s major population centers.

The announced defeat of DEASH, or IS, in al-Anbar did not hold very long. Six huge suicide car bombs were enough to completely change the situation in Ramadi.

The "dead" Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri today released an audio message to his followers. He sounds a bit old and tired but also very much alive. Some excerpts via Aymenn J Al-Tamimi:

"What's happening in our land today is a direct and comprehensive Persian occupation"- Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri #Iraq in new speech
Notable Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri singles out Muqtada al-Sadr and Ammar al-Hakim as some of those who could have stood up for Iraqi sovereignty.
In reality, says Duri, the "opportunity has come to an end" and no one can truly express their opinion or stand against Iran.
Notable Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri mentions Islamic State by name in latest speech: he says 90% of Anbar province under them & 'armed men'.
Superficial cross-sectarianism: Duri appeals to the people of Karbala too about the problem of "Safavid" schemes, militias etc.
Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri says no real 'Popular Mobilization' (Hashd Sha'abi): just cover for Iran militias like Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr etc.
Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri attacks those in the media who might want to portray his speech as pro-IS. Clearest distancing from IS by name yet.
Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri on "Da'esh" (IS): "They declare the Ba'ath to be kuffar"
Towards end of speech Duri praises the Saudi-led intervention against the Houthis in #Yemen.

The rumored to be seriously wounded or dead Caliph Baghdadi also released a long audio message as well as transcripts of it in several languages. The Soufan Groups, which sells Middle East "intelligence", wrote in a brief (excerpts):

He begins by castigating any Muslim who won’t immigrate (hijra) to the Islamic State, and who won’t wage a violent war in its defense. For al-Baghdadi, joining him is an obligation, and that “there is no excuse for any Muslim who is capable of performing hijrah (immigration) to the Islamic State, or capable of carrying a weapon where he is.”
...
He then focuses on the Arab governments that he insists are lying in their claims to represent and protect the beleaguered Sunni population. He makes specific mention of the anti-Islamic State Arab forces being trained both by regional governments such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey but also the hated West.
...
In his litany of complaints against perceived Sunni oppression and abdicated Arab leadership, al-Baghdadi effectively covers the globe in his attempt to be seen as the worldwide supreme leader of the Sunni. He wonders where is the protection for Muslims in Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Burma, India, China, “Indonesia, the Caucasus, Africa, Khorasan, and everywhere else”. He then focuses on the Saudi-led air campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen. He dismisses the fact the main targets of the Saudi air strikes are the Shi’a Houthis, and describes the effort as “not a storm of resolve, rather it is the kick of a dying person.”
...
In the speech’s most bizarre segment, al-Baghdadi talks about the sadness he and his group feel at the Iraqi Sunni “seeking refuge in the areas controlled by the Rāfidah (Shi’a) and Kurdish atheists in Iraq, ignoring that it is the savagery of the group that has caused so many people to flee before its advance.

It is interesting to observe the different positions al-Duri and Baghdadi have on the Saudi-U.S. war on Yemen.

There was more in Baghdadi's speech though possibly not in the transcripts. This seems to be quite sensational. Elijah J. Magnier reports:

I made a mistake in reading Baghdadi's voice message:
#ISIS al-Baghdadi is preparing something very big against the West, bigger than 9/11
#ISIS Baghdadi is also giving an approximative date and could be around the coming month of Ramadan (July).
I hope I am wrong but he is saying "the reaction will be huge on all Muslims living in the West". I believe him.
I have listen2 his speech 5 times. Minute 15. Moreover, other core accounts insinuate "something big coming up".
But the "possible date" is hinted and not as explicit as his intention.

So should we really expect some big event?

In other news the Islamic State also attacked in Deir Ez Zor in Syria. But that battle there, around a big military base and the city, has been going back and forth for months without decisive results. Meanwhile Hizbullah is attacking the Islamic State and Jabhat al Nusra in the Qulamoun mountains near the Lebanese border. Hizbullah head Nasrallah is expected to give some kind of victory speech tomorrow which lets me assume that the battle goes well.

The former U.S. National Security Advisers Brzezinski and Snowcroft took part in a Congress hearing on Syria. Brzezinski remarks (vid) that of all groups in Syria the Syrian president Assad is clearly the one with biggest following:

“I'm not really sure we knew what we were doing when we [i.e. the U.S. government] made a statement [against Assad]”

The wars in Syria and Iraq will continue until there is a decisive political break on either side. Such a break is nowhere in sight though Baghdadi's 9/11, if it became real, could give an impetus to either side. I therefore agree with Aron Lund who warns of falling for the various "analyst" declarations of victory for this or that side:

Four years after the uprising began, Syria has gained a reputation as the graveyard of political analysis, and it is well deserved. Many more confident statements, reports, and articles will undoubtedly be added to the pile before the war is over—and given the extraordinary complexity of this tragic and brutal conflict, some humility would be in order before pronouncing in favor of either side.

Posted by b on May 15, 2015 at 17:44 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Poor Iraq. The poor children. A goddamn sin and a travesty.
For 25 fucking years already. And they thought it would end with the fall of their "dictator." Guess they don't know AmeriKa very well.
Having a "friend" like AmeriKa (and neighbors like Saudi Arabia and Israel) apparently entitles you to a forced march towards destruction an anarchy.
Endless war for endless pieces...bipartisan support, changing reasons, the same results.
No wonder everyone hates us. This must be what Israel feels like.

Posted by: farflungstar | May 15 2015 19:23 utc | 1

(...)and given the extraordinary complexity of this tragic and brutal conflict, some humility would be in order before pronouncing in favor of either side.

Guess is time to pause and sober up on Syria's forever changing battlefield conditions, and worry a bit about the situation in Iraq. First impressions are, al-Douri statements sound like Iran is the real target of their war against the Iraqi Shiites, and Al-Baghdadi statements sound dangerously delusional. Thanks, b, for the call to sober assessments on both cases.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | May 15 2015 19:30 utc | 2

Great report, b separating the reality from the wishful thinking and propaganda.

I'm wondering where this IS attack might occur if it is a real threat? Australia seems a possible candidate but that is just speculation.

OT but interesting is the news that Hamas is courting the Saudis for aid and support because they won't bend to Iran's demands they support Assad before receiving further aid from them.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | May 15 2015 19:45 utc | 3

Wayoutwest is baaaaaack on strength after reading his Daesh heroes are alive and killing (still waiting for confirmation from other sources.) He's now salivating about where the announced 9/11 is going to take place, and happy Hamas is joining the Axis of Evil. Don't sing victory yet,this will be a long, hot, and fiery summer.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | May 15 2015 20:05 utc | 4

Honest historians will look back at 9/11 ( The Greatest fraud in history ) as - I think - the start of WW3. And since US boots on the ground occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan were failures, US proxies in Isis and Al Qeada have been where the on-the-ground success has been for the US empire.
It's an obvious upscaling of US chosen enemies, to be wiped out, destroyed or left in chaos. Creating a sphere of domination and influence right up to Russian and Chinese borders.

Posted by: tom | May 15 2015 20:07 utc | 5

Remember the good old days? Saddam was our buddy. The Iran Iraq War. 1980 > 1988. Estimates range from 600,000 to 1,250,000 dead. Ahhhhhh, the good old days.

Posted by: Alberto | May 15 2015 20:13 utc | 6

So, if al-Douri is alive and killing, whose body was paraded in Baghdad, orange beard and all? Though I am still waiting for confirmation from other sources, I agree with the need to be more cautious re: the fluctuating conditions in Iraq and Syria.

Body of 'King of Clubs' aka Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri paraded through streets of Iraq before being handed over to Iraqi Government

Posted by: Lone Wolf | May 15 2015 20:32 utc | 7

Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri is still alive? i thought it was odd he would walk around with that red beard of his and not get caught

Posted by: mir | May 15 2015 20:41 utc | 8

@4

I imagine your nose is still stinging from the smack b delivered to you for bringing him that propaganda link about Baghdadi's death but there is no need to snarl at others who watched that doggie training.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | May 15 2015 21:10 utc | 9

Yep. We're gearing up for some serious global bloodletting. The Tsarnaev execution will be the kickoff. The stadium is already full and cheering.

Maybe Uncle Ruslan can pull the switch. With family like that, who needs enemies?

Posted by: Ananymus | May 15 2015 21:31 utc | 10

Boston Marathon bomber sentenced to death

If they kill Dzhokhar Tsarnaev they'll bury the CIAs involvement with Chechen terrorism and al-CIA-da along with him.

Tsarnaev must live to tell about the CIA in Chechnya ... and of Chechans and others on the CIA payroll outside of Chechnya! in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen ...

Posted by: jfl | May 15 2015 21:51 utc | 11

@Wayoutwest@9

I can see I overestimated your mental capacity, your limbaughtomy so thorough it impaired your neurons. Where do you get the thought (or lack thereof) that b needs mine or anyone else's links for information? Even if he reads the comment section to his blog, he needs to double check his sources and any links attached to any post, before publishing a comment. I see you're getting carried away by your happiness about the "resurrection" of your boss al-Baghdadi and his pal al-Douri, still unconfirmed. Gloat all you can, your criminal buddies will never succeed. Neither will your idiotic comments.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | May 15 2015 22:02 utc | 12

US, Gulf states to deepen military ties: White House


Camp David (AFP) - The United States and its Gulf allies on Thursday agreed to deepen their military partnership and jointly counter external threats, in the face of Iran's growing role in the region.

In a statement following a Camp David summit between US President Barack Obama and six Gulf leaders, the two sides said:


"The United States is prepared to work jointly with the GCC states to deter and confront an external threat to any GCC state's territorial integrity."

The leaders agreed

"to enhance their work to improve security cooperation, especially on fast-tracking arms transfers, as well as on counter-terrorism, maritime security, cyber security, and ballistic missile defense."

And the statement specifically named Iran, a traditional foe of both Washington and the Sunni-led Gulf Arab monarchies, as one of the threats they would work together to deter.

"The United States and GCC member states oppose and will work together to counter Iran's destabilizing activities in the region,"

the statement said.

Annex to U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Camp David Joint Statement

The 'external threat' speaks. These guys gin up death, devastation and destruction by ISIS/al-CIA-da and then make a pact to use their handiwork as the pretext for even more DD&D in the region.

The call by al-Baghdadi for the world's takfiri Muslims to come to jihad in Syria/Iraq mirrors Netanyahoo's call for the world's takfiri Jews come to jihad in Israel/Palestine.

What is required is for ordinary Jews and Muslims around the world to denounce and renounce the murderous actions of the fundamentalist Jewish sects in Israel and Saudi Arabia/GCC.

A joint counsel of the world's Muslims and Jews doing just that would be excellent. With the world's 'others' denouncing the use of 'religion' by the fundamentalist neo-libs/neo-cons in US/EU as a weapon.

Posted by: jfl | May 15 2015 22:32 utc | 13

The US benefits from every move of ISIL, even if they did attack the US it would only serve to choke more of our civil liberties, promote militarism, and give another excuse for getting even more deeply involved in the country we so ignominiously left just a few years ago.

-------------------

@WoW "I'm wondering where this IS attack might occur if it is a real threat? Australia seems a possible candidate but that is just speculation."

Well, this must be a new low in analysis. You're just randomly throwing out names of countries? We're you just so excited, sitting at home thinking about the words of your heroes, wondering just what they meant and all the exciting possibilities you just had to share? Like an 11 year old girl trying to read herself into the latest Justin Beiber video? I hope you have some kleenex handy, you old bugger.

Posted by: guest77 | May 16 2015 0:10 utc | 14

For a little dose of reality: Hassan Nasrallah: “Game Over” for Syria and Bashar al-Assad?

Obviously, here in Lebanon we have people who are very hasty, and multiplying precipitous actions for 4 years, again and again, they mutually congratulate each other for a supposed victory, before discovering that this new festivity was on false grounds, that there is no fiancé or fiancée, and that they were all making fun of each other.

Remind you all of anyone?

Posted by: guest77 | May 16 2015 0:19 utc | 15

Wolfie

Just be patient someone will pat you on the head and thank you for delivering that drool soaked nonsense from your friends in Australia.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | May 16 2015 0:56 utc | 16

@guest77@15

Remind you all of anyone?

Very much so, one of them just posted some more drivel right below you, the other one took off after taking some beating yesterday after posting, for the nth time, "Assad is going down."

Nasrallah is speaking tomorrow about the latest battlefield gains in the Qalamoun barrens, wonder what his take would be on the latest developments, al-Dour/al-Baghdadi "resurrection," that has Wayoutwest jumping up like the clown he is, ever since b posted his latest article.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | May 16 2015 1:29 utc | 17

in re 11 --

I see a no. of problems with this line of reasoning. First, appeals will take time, plenty of opportunities to debrief him. Presuming he has anything of importance to relate, i.e., did his brother tell him anything.

More to the point, there seems plenty of information available. New Eastern Outlook via Russia Insider asks, Did CIA Back Russia's Chechen Insurgency?.

Putin stated that the terror in Chechnya and in the Russian Caucasus in the early 1990’s was actively backed by the CIA and western Intelligence services to deliberately weaken Russia. He noted that the Russian FSB foreign intelligence had documentation of the US covert role without giving details.

What Putin, an intelligence professional of the highest order, only hinted at in his remarks, I have documented in detail from non-Russian sources.

F. William Engdahl goes on to present his evidence at some length. He notes the involvement of NatSec operatives like Richard Secord (an Iran/Contra veteran) in the Caucasus, for example, as well as Saudi intelligence.

Posted by: rufus magister | May 16 2015 2:24 utc | 18

A big thank you to the dingbats in this thread who reminded me why I stopped posting regularly here.
Playing ping pong or 'I'm righter than you' over the horror show of hundreds of people getting blown apart each day is fucking sick - even sicker considering the places and events being discussed have prolly never been visited by the pingers or the pongers and are a million miles from yer dank little screen kit caves.

Posted by: Debs is dead | May 16 2015 2:27 utc | 19

oops kit = lit

Posted by: Debs is dead | May 16 2015 2:28 utc | 20

@10

Sorry DiD I shouldn't let this hounding distract me and draw my reply. I'll try to ignore it and stay on subject which is much more interesting.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | May 16 2015 3:20 utc | 21

Whatever people think about the IS and Baghdadi he hasn't made empty threats before so I would imagine the Western intelligence agencies are taking this threat seriously. We'll just have to wait and see what they do and what may happen in the next few months.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | May 16 2015 3:28 utc | 22

@b – Saudi King Salman has cleansed house and put his loyalists in place. Saudis have reconciled with the MB states of Qatar and Turkey. As a result Hamas is looking to the Sunni winner Saudi Arabia for funds. The GCC states have the ear of president Obama, although VP Biden appears saddened. The 4 years of MB support by the State Dep't under Hillary Clinton has come to a halt. The overthrow of Morsi in Egypt and the Qatari backed jihadists in Libya can take a lot of credit. Turkey under sultan Erdogan wants to perform it his way in northern Syria and seems to be making headway. All along, the Israelis use the IDF to keep equilibrium for all terror groups to sustain violence in the region. Israel will de-facto annex the Golan Heights for its security. The days of Assad are numbered … not in terms of weeks though.

Turks and Sauds to Install Sunni Terror in Damascus, Syria
Obama Making Promises Beyond Today's Reality - Bringing Sunni Together

Posted by: Oui | May 16 2015 11:02 utc | 23

20

Actually 'kit' might be better, they sound like mil operatives in their dank little CIA trailers with their 'kit' of operational narratives they have to perform.

Meanwhile, Mohammed Morsi, Egypt's ex-leader, sentenced to death.

Posted by: NoReply | May 16 2015 13:22 utc | 24

@14

The US benefits from every move of ISIL, even if they did attack the US it would only serve to choke more of our civil liberties,

The Patriot Act expires June 1. I think there will be another huge something like 9/11 to intimidate the Ds and Tea Party to pass an extinction, or make it permanent.

Posted by: okie farmer | May 16 2015 14:07 utc | 25

'B' makes the cocksure declaration that "the war in Syria will continue until there is a decisive political break on either side." I say he's mistaken. I say one of the most important fundamentals of the Syrian political and military landscape is that there can never be a decisive political break on the part of the rebels. Secondly, the Syrian government, for its part, will not break politically to the Islamists unless it has been substantially defeated by them militarily. Thus the war will continue until one side is defeated militarily. The Syrian government and its army is positioned to win it militarily in the long term, and it's going to be a long and slow grind.

Posted by: Ghubar Shabih | May 16 2015 17:32 utc | 26

GS@26

I agree that it will be the military factor that decides the outcome of this conflict but I'm not sure about your claim that the SAA will or is able to prevail. They seem to be weakening while the foreign, Iranian, Iraqi and Hezbollah forces are growing and replacing them in leading this fight.

The rebel forces are also changing their tactics and working together to multiply their power even though there is still some inter-group conflict.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | May 16 2015 18:06 utc | 27

@Okie farmer:

The Patriot Act expires June 1. I think there will be another huge something like 9/11 to intimidate the Ds and Tea Party to pass an extinction, or make it permanent.

I didn't even know that the PATRIOT Act was about to expire, Okie! Thanks for the info. But it occurs to me: if no one else knows about this either, they might not need another false-flag. They could just stick it on to some 1000-page bill as a rider, and hardly anybody would know about it for another 6 months or so.

Posted by: Seamus Padraig | May 16 2015 19:17 utc | 28

B writes:
"Hizbullah head Nasrallah is expected to give some kind of victory speech tomorrow which lets me assume that the battle goes well"

It's going so well that even msm outlets have been forced to take notice.

@Oui[23]

I bet you Assad ain't going anywhere. Btw, the very fact that the usual suspects are agitating for no fly zones and atrocity propaganda about gas attacks, should be enough proof that the islamic mercenaries are not winning on the ground.

Posted by: Luca K | May 16 2015 20:30 utc | 29

To the degree that the 'Caliph Baghdadi' is even a real guy - what do we really know about this fellow? - , no, he ain't gonna pull no 9-11, which, btw, was NOT carried out by Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden.

Regarding the Bin Laden 'raid', as P.C.Roberts wrote recently:
"If, as Hersh reports, lies comprise 99% of Washington’s tale of the raid in Abbottabad, why believe that 1% of the story is true and that bin Laden was killed. It is difficult to have murder without a body. The only evidence that bin Laden was killed is the government’s claim."

Posted by: Luca K | May 16 2015 20:36 utc | 30

Luca K at 30 --

I would think, were bin Laden to be alive, he would certainly make this known in order to discredit DC. I cannot see it being in anyone's interest to keep him alive and incommunicado.

Recent gains in Syria and Iraq would suggest the jihadis are making progress. As Oui at 23 noted, talk of late has been how soon Assad would fall. He's been counted out before, so I'm skeptical. But you never know what enough brutality and cold, hard cash can do. Erdogan has only brutality, the Saudis a bit of both.

Posted by: rufus magister | May 16 2015 21:08 utc | 31

There is sufficient evidence the battle in Syria has evolved. Watch and follow Erdogan's Turkey and Obama's failure to get him on board of the Sunni coalition against IS. Thr so-called mercenaries or foreign jihadists have re-united with the FSA, Jablat al-Nusra and dozens of other groups in Syria. The IDF strikes are in support of JAN on the Golan Heights to create a corridor from Jordan to Damascus. In the north, sophisticated weapons are pouring in as was seen in the capture of Idlib and surrounding area. The Assad regime are having difficulty replenishing troops, having suffered heavy casualties in the past 5 years.

Posted by: Oui | May 17 2015 8:41 utc | 32

@rufus

"I would think, were bin Laden to be alive..'

Who said anything about B.L being alive?
IF u were better informed however, you would have known that B.L had been reported deceased many years before the alleged Seals raid, of natural causes(he was sick),his death possibly having taken place not much later after
the Zamerican invasion of 01. This has beenreported even by msm.
It is certainly more believable than the fantastic story of the SEALs assassination op.

rufus:
"Recent gains in Syria.."
Oui
"There is sufficient evidence the battle in Syria..."

There have been indeed many coordinated attacks recently by various islamic groups, including ISIS, but the gains have been very LIMITED.
Propaganda nothwithstanding.
Fighting continues in Idlib, back and forth.
ISIS attacks on Palmyra so far have produced little for them except huge casualties. In the Qalamoun, Hezbollah and the Syrian army have been inflicting painful defeats on the Wahhabis, etc.

oui:
"sophisticated weapons are pouring..."

Nothing new, sophisticated weapons have poured into Syria before, including ATGMS.
As Nasrallah pointed out recently, the situation for the Syrian government has been worse in the past.
The situation is and has always been difficult, Syria is completely encircled by hostile forces which can count on sanctuaries in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and lebanon(less and less in Leb. bc of Hezbollah). There are huge numbers of disgruntled Sunni males with little propects(high levels of unemployment)througout the Muslim world(and even in the West) who can be recruited to replace the many thousands that have fallen.

Despite all this, Syria is still holding strong. Barred direct NATO intervention, Syria has a good chance to wear out the storm.

Posted by: Luca K | May 17 2015 16:26 utc | 33

Luca K, 33 --

I'm fairly well-informed, not omniscient. I try to stay focused on the former Union, but I do branch out from time to time.

You should perhaps be clearer. Do you think him dead or alive? If dead, how, when, where?

There are reports of many things, and I do recall assertions he died earlier (complications from his medical problems is I think the most widely mentioned). Some might be credible, others not. If dead earlier, why wait? There is certainly no shortage of "devils de jour" to wave before Western publics.

I certainly hope that Assad and the secular Ba'athists prevail. Some intervention might well be needed for a jihadi win, but I can't see NATO getting involved. They could not ginger up intervention with the "red line" of chemical weapons earlier, and publics are no less war-weary, espeically after the Ukraine.

But perhaps once the Saudis wrap Yemen up, they'll try their hand in the Levant. Or maybe Erdogan will cross the line towards open intervention he keeps skirting. It's the sort of thing sultans do, no?

Posted by: rufus magister | May 17 2015 18:07 utc | 34

A Demographic Challenge

What gains the Shiites made largely came as a result of Sunni weakness and incoherence, and some recent developments suggest the Sunnis are regaining ground, if only temporarily. Rebels have gained critical territory in Syria, particularly in Idlib province, and Saudi Arabia and Turkey entered into an alliance to oust al Assad from power.

More important, there are simply more Sunnis than Shiites, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest Sunnis will not abide Shiite rule. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has been unable to dominate the government, despite the size and influence of the militant group.

Posted by: Oui | May 17 2015 18:56 utc | 35

oui, 35-6 -- tx for the link on the pending alliance, it will formalize the de facto arrangements. Turkish boots, Saudi air support, Gulf money, should be quite the trifecta.

I'm still with Assad to place. I doubt if Putin is in the mood to see him ousted. I think there are enough Shia and Christian areas that don't want to be ruled by Sunnis to give him a base. But he certainly won't be able to retake much of the area held by the jihadis. I would expect another bloody stalemate.

BTW, it's interesting how the Sunni/Shia split in early Islam somewhat parallels the Latin/Eastern split in Christianity. Unlike the later Reformation, it is not over doctrine, it is over questions of leadership.

Erdogan is the winner, Saudis show. And of course Jerusalem cashes in a few winning tickets.

Posted by: rufus magister | May 17 2015 19:36 utc | 37

@Oui

u seem to see everything through sectarian lenses.
In Iraq, the best that sunni extremists, such as ISIS, can hope for, is to rule over the sunni MINORITY there.
Yes, the zamerican trained iraq army is unreliable, what's new?
The Shia paramilitaries backed by iranian advisers are much better.

In Syria, the government is secular, not 'shia'. As b, the author of this blog has demonstrated, all minorities plus a lot of sunnis stand behind the government.
If that had not been the case, Assad would have fallen long ago.
More than half of the sryian army and pro-government paramilitaries are sunni.

Wahhabi S.ARabia and neo sultan Erdoghan have long been in a de facto alliance to oust Assad, together with Catar, zusa,zuk, France, Israel, etc. Where were you?

You seem to try to demonize Hezbollah as sectarian.. that is NOT the case. Hezb is pragmatic. Nor is it trying to install
any rule of the shia over sunnis in Lebanon, pure BS!
Their job is made difficult though, bc of the dual national(lebanese/saudi)billionaire S.hariri and his cabal of traitors, all in thefold of S.Arabia, zusa and israel.

Posted by: Luca K | May 17 2015 21:48 utc | 38

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