Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 12, 2015

Minsk 2.0 Is Just The Pause Button

After 15 hours of negotiations in Minsk Poroshenko, Putin, Merkel and Hollande achieved a renewal, with a few changes, of the Minsk 1.0 ceasefire for Ukraine framed as the new Minsk 2.0 ceasefire. The two heads of the federalists in Donetsk and Lughanks also signed the agreement. There was no common press conference to announce the deal.

The terms, as far as I can tell, are nearly the same as in Minsk 1.0. RT.com twittered the main points:

1.Ceasefire 2.Heavy weapons 3.Monitoring (OSCE) incl satellites & drones 4. Regional elections & self-gov 5. 'special status' in 30 days 6. POWs 7.Humanitarian corridors 8.Pensions & social ties 9.Kiev controls borders 10. Foreign fighters out 11. Disarm irregulars 12. reform by end 2015, decentralization 13.Donbass elections under 3-party contact group (3PCG) 14.3PCG to intensify activities

The full, original text in Russian is here, a preliminary English translation here. There is also a Declaration of Minsk in support of the "Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements" from the German and French side.

The actual ceasefire will start on February 15. We can expect some heavy fighting up to the last minute as each side will try to consolidate its position. There will surely be different interpretations of the clauses on both sides. It is also questionable if the paramilitary groups, especially on the Ukrainian state side, will follow orders to cease fighting.

The Ukrainian President Poroshenko seems to have severe illusions. As the Russian President Putin mentioned in his short press conference (video) Poroshenko does not believe that his several thousand troops in Debaltsevo are surrounded and cut off. That is ludicrous as even major, though unofficial sources on the Ukrainian side had confirmed the closing of the cauldron two days ago. It seems that the military leaders of the Ukrainian army do not tell him what is really happening in the field. Putin also said that the federalist expect the Ukrainian troops in the cauldron to put down their arms. Will they be given orders to do so or will they be ordered to fight on?

The U.S. inserted itself into the negotiation via the International Monetary Fund which it controls. The IMF announced new $17 billion plan for Ukraine, over four years, two hours before the negotiations ended. That was the U.S. joker telling Poroshenko that he would get enough money to continue fighting and does not have to give up any position. Merkel and Hollande, who tired to wring more concessions out of Poroshenko, must have fumed at that news.

For the moment the Minsk 2.0 plan is welcome relief. This certainly for the people in Donetsk and Luhanks who are under constant Ukrainian artillery fire. The EU countries will be happy that the pressure for new sanctions is off and the U.S. hawks will have to shelf their "arm Ukraine" campaign for now. But the ceasefire does not solve the main questions. The radical constituency of the Ukraine coup government will demand more "punishment" of the east while the people there will, without more representation, reject any demands from the central government.

We can therefore expect that the fighting will stop in the short term only. The violent conflict will likely resume in a month or two or so.

Posted by b on February 12, 2015 at 11:28 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page

So you decide who is an idiot and who is lying? I bow to such omnipotence.

Posted by: dh | Feb 13 2015 2:42 utc | 101

From cc's link at 97


 Rozoff warns that war is not a potential outcome but is in fact already taking place, and full-scale US/NATO intervention is virtually unstoppable at this point.

Rick Rosoff Lol another clueless yank with a dumbass opinion

Anyone dumb enough to claim that in Ukraine "full-scale US/NATO intervention is virtually unstoppable at this point" should prolly just shut the F up and stop getting his rocks off by trying to scare the crap out of the sheep


NATO wont be doing any "full-scale intervention" any time soon in Ukraine

Posted by: TLC | Feb 13 2015 2:45 utc | 102

DeepResource: Mistral Could be Delivered Soon in the Wake of Minsk Agreement

Aside from German and Russian, French is another language that it is good for Europeans to know. The Anglosphere had its chance, but it fucked everything up with its carnivorous rapacity.

Good bye American woman
Good bye American shit

I don't need your war machines
I don't need you ghetto scenes

Posted by: Demian | Feb 13 2015 2:46 utc | 103

I don't need your war machines

Cool track, first time youve actually showed any musical taste

Only prob though is that Mistral most definately is a war machine

Didnt really think through that little segue of yours, though, did ya D?


so it aint actually war machines you object to

Just the non french ones, right?

Posted by: TLC | Feb 13 2015 2:56 utc | 104

And apparently they aint got no ghettos in cheese eatin surrender monkey land neither, according to the big D

Them Frenchis got them some banlieues, which are totally not like ghettoes

Nope

Posted by: TLC | Feb 13 2015 2:59 utc | 105

@CaptainCook@78

Indeed! In his last book, World in Crisis: The End of the American Century (2009),the late radical historian Gabriel Kolko fingered the role of ambition and opportunism in determining U.S. foreign policy. The continuity in decision-making is intellectual, organizational, political, and implemented by "very ambitious people who often do not believe in anything but success. Opportunism--everywhere--is far more crucial than ideology in determining what people say and do."

Decisions on vital questions are filtered through the prism of ambition, Kolko observes, and since men and women who aspire to attain influence and power very often give advice with a view to advancing their own careers, they are not objective assessors of options. "Decisions are made to attain success; choices are rarely made with an eye on the facts."

Thanks for introducing me to what it seems an excellent new (for me) book!! Right on target, Kolko couldn't describe more accurately DC's dynamic, and with Obamber already a symbolic figure with no real power to project into the future (war), the same old, same old power-game kicked-off with fury with the typical "positioning" laid out in papers & newspapers (on and offline), mags, blogs, etc., about the "issues" that will make the candidate a "winner." The entrance ticket is to be "tough" on everything, crime, immigration, Russia, China, Iran, Syria, forgotten (not for the US Army) Africa, Venezuela, Boko Haram, Ecuador, La Kirchner, Mugabe, La Rousseff, the Castros, the Ortegas, and last but no least, that devil incarnate, Putin. The wannabe potential pick for Secy. of Defense could not but be the toughest guy on the block, recommending a long list of interventions, large & small, short & long, bombing only & boots-on-the-ground is in the menu. There is also a long list of war-making goodies to be distributed at friendly places & "hot-spots" that makes the mil-ind complex smile all the way to the bank, every step on the body of a dead Iraqi, Afghan, Libyan, Palestinian, DNR, LNR, Egyptian, Bahrainis, Yemenis, Ukrainians, Lebanese, Syrians, etc. And the game plays on, from election to election, with new generations of "tough" armchair warriors coming to play the power game, while the immutable deep-state looks on, making decisions of life and death over billions of people's lives, on an interactive world map giant screen. Made in the USA. Democracy. Only in America.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Feb 13 2015 3:09 utc | 106

Re 101 and yer segue

Damn D, i spoke too soon, i shoulda known youd pick the shit boring version of that song

Should gone with the Surfers cover

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reeOOA4Ha7M

Posted by: TLC | Feb 13 2015 3:14 utc | 107

Demian @101@
Nice find. I was wondering when and how the Mistral question would be resolved. I also saw The Saker has a well reasoned take on Minsk2. I am cautiously optimistic that the worm is slowly turning. Everything the Reich is attempting seems to boomerang with increasing rapidity. It may soon be reduced to holding it's breath and stomping it's little feet until somebody...anybody...pays attention to it. And I don't think that day can come soon enough.

Posted by: Scott | Feb 13 2015 3:37 utc | 108

The US Congress is in a frenzy to get weapons into the hands of the Kiev government. They are beside themselves. But the assumption is that Obama will forestall any thoughts of sending lethal arms to Kiev, for the time being. But the economic war continues in force, without regard to the arrangement now in effect in Minsk. NATO is but the mouthpiece through which the Trans-Atlantic power speaks. Some writers, like Paul Craig Roberts, have recently expressed doubts that France and Germany are effectively sovereign states at all. What good are the guarantees made to Putin behind closed doors, if these countries don't have independent foreign policy?

Nothing will deter Poroshenko from pressing ahead with universal conscription that drags the country's women into the horror. There was an article in RT, I think, mentioning that the Kiev Rada had passed a law whereby army deserters may be shot.

This from Mike Whitney:

While the possibility of a nuclear conflagration cannot be excluded, it won’t effect US plans for the near future. No one thinks that Putin will launch a nuclear war to protect the Donbass, so the deterrent value of the weapons is lost.

And Washington isn’t worried about the costs either. Despite botched military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and half a dozen other countries around the world; US stocks are still soaring, foreign investment in US Treasuries is at record levels,, the US economy is growing at a faster pace than any of its global competitors, and the dollar has risen an eye-watering 13 percent against a basket of foreign currencies since last June. America has paid nothing for decimating vast swathes of the planet and killing more than a million people. Why would they stop now?

Whitney doesn't hold out much for the good faith of Merkel and Hollande, either:
The emergence of a multi-polar world order spearheaded by Moscow poses the greatest single threat to Washington’s plans for continued domination. The first significant clash between these two competing world views will likely take place sometime this summer in East Ukraine. God help us.

NOTE: The Novorussia Armed Forces (NAF) currently have 8,000 Ukrainian regulars surrounded in Debaltsevo, East Ukraine. This is a very big deal although the media has been (predictably) keeping the story out of the headlines.

Evacuation corridors have been opened to allow civilians to leave the area. Fighting could break out at anytime. At present, it looks like a good part of the Kiev’s Nazi army could be destroyed in one fell swoop. This is why Merkel and Hollande have taken an emergency flight to Moscow to talk with Putin. They are not interested in peace. They merely want to save their proxy army from annihilation.

But maybe this is not a fair way of representing these Minsk talks. The cease fire counts for something; or such is the hope.

Posted by: Copeland | Feb 13 2015 3:55 utc | 109

@Demian@101

DeepResource: Mistral Could be Delivered Soon in the Wake of Minsk Agreement

The French better do it real soon, or the two weeks window of opportunity that may or may not be opened by Minsk 2.0 will shut down on them, who knows for how long.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Feb 13 2015 4:29 utc | 110

Russian Spring

02/13/2015-03:24

Commander of a unit of Donetsk Republic army “Podpol” (“Cellar”) told about operative situation on the front:

“So far, there is no any respite; the battles continue including Logvinovo (30-home hamlet situated on the main supply route to Debal`tsevo).
The Ukrainians were able to make it close to Logvinovo – the colum was large – but could not take the hamlet.

According to intercepts, the Lugansk combatants do not idle – the Ukrainians ask for artillery support upon Debal`tsevo itself.

The Ukrainians headed on Kalinovka, head to head tank combat under artillery strikes from both sides – the heat.

The details are not available, but the tally of the day – opponent attacks were repelled, Ukrainian reserves were burned at approaches; ammo supplies are burning and exploding behind the bridge on the route ever since.

All positions of Novorossia forces are retained; another two heights around Debal`tsevo were retaken from the opponent.”

Posted by: Fete | Feb 13 2015 4:56 utc | 111

@Copeland@95

Can Washington be speaking in good faith when it says, via Kerry, that under these new diplomatic circumstances it would consider dialing back the sanctions on Russia?

A very good question, which inevitably elevates the level and scope of the potential conspiracy around the whole Minsk 2.0 show.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Feb 13 2015 5:18 utc | 112

@Copeland@95

Can Washington be speaking in good faith when it says, via Kerry, that under these new diplomatic circumstances it would consider dialing back the sanctions on Russia?

A very good question, which inevitably elevates the level and scope of the potential conspiracy around the whole Minsk 2.0 show.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Feb 13 2015 5:24 utc | 113

From the Saker:

"First, I would remind everybody that the junta as broken every single agreement it committed to. Every single one. And there is absolutely no reasons at all to believe that this time around this will change."

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/

Posted by: ben | Feb 13 2015 6:11 utc | 114

This plan will be destabilized by the US deep state. It won't stick.

Posted by: purple | Feb 13 2015 6:19 utc | 115

Seems like the big concern here is the Western Ukraine's economy imploding. What with the massive bailouts on the way, looks like things are not so rosy in Kiev. Conscription + unemployment + food shortages = coups, civil unrest and worse.

I can't seem to find any info on the economic situation there. Is it dire as I think? I'm sure the East is a bombed out husk at this point. Who's going to pay to fix the damage there?

Posted by: Almand | Feb 13 2015 6:34 utc | 116

Putin Wins, Obama Loses, in Draft Plan for Ukraine


The only way that U.S. President Barack Obama can win in Ukraine now is by ...

blah, blah, blah. All the geopoiitical fantasy 'fun' is laid bare for what it is ...

Three children killed in a direct hit on Gorlovka home


At 20:30 an artillery shelling of the city began. As a result of which, there was a direct hit on a residential house, where there were three children: a one year old boy, a 6 year old girl, and a 12 year old girl. They all died on the spot.

Whoopee! We're all gonna die!

Poroshenko throws 800 people and thee battalion groups into battle to deblock the Debaltsevo cauldron and save himself


Simultaneously with information about deblocking advance near Debaltsevo information appeared on a number of Ukrainian forums, and was removed by administrators, about a "black night", which the Ukrainian command wants to throw as a final good bye for the rebellious population of Donbass.

According to this information, in the last hours of the war the Ukrainian artillery should cause the most massive for this entire campaign strike on cities and towns of Donetsk and Lugansk Republics. As mentioned on one of the forums: "Leaving, loudly slamming the door, so that this bang will be remembered in each separatist family, in each of their homes!"

This cynical campaign of the Ukrainian Nazis could claim hundreds of lives...


Can't see it from Washington, Paris, Berlin, or Moscow ... so it's not happening in the fantasy 'fun' world of geopolitics.

The same as all wars. The ones who start them, who keep them going, who define the 'rules', who say when they can end ... have no skin in the game, at all.

Their victims all die alone.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13 2015 6:42 utc | 117

My bad... didn't see the agreement requires for the gov't to pay for reconstruction in the East.

By the by, how much of that money is going to actually go towards rebuilding the country, and how much is going to end up in the hands of oligarchs and mafiosos...

Posted by: Almand | Feb 13 2015 6:48 utc | 118

Posted by: Almand | Feb 13, 2015 1:34:36 AM | 113

People solve it like they have solved it for a long time - looking for work abroad. Mainly in Russia, as entry there is most easy.

The young people who remain will be even more dependent on foreign funding. Pensioners don't count in any equation.

Ukraine is a banana republic, let's face it.

Posted by: somebody | Feb 13 2015 7:08 utc | 119

Always has been one it seems like.
On the bright side, since the IMF is now going to be their new benefactor, ADM and Cargill will get a crack at all that farmland instead of the Chinese.

Posted by: Almand | Feb 13 2015 7:22 utc | 120

@jfl #114:

Can't see it from Washington, Paris, Berlin, or Moscow

Your Russophobic trolling equating Moscow with Washington is becoming tedious. Get real.

Posted by: Demian | Feb 13 2015 7:31 utc | 121

Scott

It was Toivos words, but sure the sanctions are hurting, it has not so much to do with having a debt or not.

Posted by: Anonymous | Feb 13 2015 7:37 utc | 122

In other news people are leaving Kosovo. Another US/EU success project.

Posted by: somebody | Feb 13 2015 8:29 utc | 123

@109 fete. thanks

@112 purple.. everyone knows that- putin and poroshenko especially.. it's not what we will read about in the papers though..

i like how imf has created more money for itself again thanks the perfidious nature of the political class running ukraine at present.. good work imf!!! those banks must be happy how you have paved the way for more interest off those loans that will be passed on to poor ukrainian folks, or anyone stupid enough to want to hold some worthless bond..

still curious if anyone has the start time on feb 15th for when the agreement engages. 12 noon? 12 midnight.. also - does anyone know the time of day on feb 12th in minsk the agreement was signed? thanks..

Posted by: james | Feb 13 2015 8:45 utc | 124

thanks jfl for 114

it's not russophobic, Demien, to notice the solidarity of the global exploiting class--a class-based popular movement in Novorossiya is the real threat to Putin, hence the necessity of placing the likes of zakh, besler and plotz on the scene in an attempt to sideline giants like Mozgovoi and Gubarev, and to outright murder Batman and Ischenko.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8BH8Jq4dgc

https://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2015/01/03/el-murid-has-managed-to-make-the-plotnitsky-mini-junta-seriously-angry-with-two-very-inflammatory-posts-about-batman/

but of course it's easier to stick to the Moscow vs. Washington narrative

did you ever read _Homage to Catalonia?_

Posted by: Cu Chulainn | Feb 13 2015 11:20 utc | 125

ukraine deal to keep russia looking the other way as the slaughter gets set to begin in syria and iraq.

Posted by: mcohen | Feb 13 2015 12:24 utc | 126

I'm in the won't-hold-'cause-the-fascists-don't-like-it camp, works to Kiev's advantange, IMHO. Very surprised by any agreement, esp. with Debaltsevo still in UAF hands.

For now, just time for a few items from Fort Russ. A new calm before a big war probably describes the present reality. I found Minsk-2 is over before it began: 17 volunteer battalions refuse to obey Kiev and K. Rus's comments very informative. Same with "All is lost"--Poroshenko after Minsk-2 and Hawk's comments.

What folks like Yarosh, Lyashko, and Semenchenko have to say will be key on the agreement and Poroshenko's prospects. Activation of the parallel General Staff not a good leading indicator for Poroshenko.

I said before, IF there was to be an agreement, THEN something had to be done to secure Poroshenko's position. Maybe DC has a plan to help him suppress the far right. No evidence yet.

Posted by: rufus magister | Feb 13 2015 12:54 utc | 127

BBC has confirmed the article from fortruss:

New shelling has been reported around the rebel-held east Ukrainian cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, a day after a peace deal was reached in Minsk.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31449981

Posted by: okie farmer | Feb 13 2015 13:07 utc | 128

As expected, Minsk 2.0 is already dead and buried.

1. Russia isnt releasing Savchenko (responsible for the murder of journalists), as it wasnt part of the deal.

2. Kiev declared that there wont be an amnesty, as well as there wont be any special status for Novorossia. Both claims directly contradict Minsk 2.0 agreement.

3. ES confirmed there wont be any sanctions relief for Russia, whats more - new sanctions will be activated in 3 days.

4. US and ES directly placed all responsibility for Minsk 2.0 on Russia, and only after conditions fulfilled, they maybe will consider some relief.

5. Mistrals from France also directly tied with Russia completing ALL points of Minsk 2.0.

6. Krym question remains, and AFTER Russia completes Minsk 2.0 points, Krym will be put on agenda.

7. US considered an idea Kiev has any responsibilities for Minsk 2.0 agreement as funny. (Ironically US has a point, Kiev in reality hasnt signed anything, only Russia and Novorossia did).

In other words, Russia stepped on the same rake twice now, or more, if we consider other agreements which were ALL broken by the West and their puppets in Kiev.

It seems oligarchs in Russia have much greater influence than its known to us, because I really dont think Putin is THAT stupid. Both Minsk 1.0 and 2.0 harmed Russia and especially Novorossia (which had to be blackmailed by Russia to accept humiliating and unacceptable conditions). Sanctions also play role, but IMO its more about Russian oligarch pockets than Russia's treasury, since oligarchs could arrange Maidan in Russia as well, and thats way more dangerous. Therefore it seems Putin cares more about keeping oligarch happy than anything what happens in Donbass.

More: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2046646.html

Posted by: Harry | Feb 13 2015 13:19 utc | 129

In case you missed it: Ukrainian lawmakers show that, war or no war, they will still brawl in parliament at the drop of a hat.


https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10153156828059575&fref=nf

Posted by: vbo | Feb 13 2015 13:33 utc | 130

Russian fifth column panics over Putin's triumph on the Minsk agreement

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/russian-fifth-column-panics-over-putins.html

Posted by: okie farmer | Feb 13 2015 13:38 utc | 131

In case you missed it: Ukrainian lawmakers show that, war or no war, they will still brawl in parliament at the drop of a hat.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10153156828059575&fref=nf

Posted by: vbo | Feb 13 2015 13:38 utc | 132

@ okie farmer | 128

I dont know what these guys are smoking, but nothing they said has anything to do with reality. And I'm speaking about both fortruss and rusophobes they are commenting on.

Posted by: Harry | Feb 13 2015 13:42 utc | 133

alberto@8 re PAF 2010 Tu154 crash

I can't see the Poles covering up for the Russian murder of their President and most of his cabinet.

Consult "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Polish_Air_Force_Tu-154_crash" for more details

You will find that the Polish pilot (who may have considered himself beyond the point of safe return) chose to ignore various warnings about airspeed, angle of attack, and altitude, and soon after

"the aircraft began hitting trees. One, a large birch with a trunk 30 to 40 cm (12 to 16 in) wide, ripped off about 6.5 meters of the left wing, including the left aileron. The resulting asymmetrical lift caused an uncommanded roll to the left. Within 5 seconds, the aircraft was inverted, hitting the ground with the left wing, followed very shortly after by the nose. The nose impact resulted in forces exceeding 100g, which killed everyone on board instantly"

According to Wikipedia, that quotation is translated from the Polish version of the final investigative report, published by the Polish ministry of the Interior.

Troll !

Posted by: gersen | Feb 13 2015 14:42 utc | 134

We're all one.

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Feb 13 2015 14:45 utc | 135

@ Ulster #6

My concern is about civilian casualties in Ukraine from the use of long range artillery. And if the description and map at http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/world/europe/ukraine-cease-fire-negotiated-in-minsk.html are true then the nearest ukrainian artillery can be to donetsk is 30 miles (or 50 kilometers). And the same with every other civilian location on either side subject to bombardment in the past.

Surely it is not beyond the capability of OSCE to monitor A) the presence of heavy artillery within the so-called exclusion zone, and B) the presence of fresh damage created by artillery occurring after the Sunday ceasefire in apartment buildings, hospitals, schools and so-forth.

Thats assuming Obama or Putin doesn't sabotage the agreement by giving one side longer-distance and more powerful ordinance.

Posted by: gersen | Feb 13 2015 15:04 utc | 136

@Colden Holefield #132

Oṃ maṇi padme hūṃ

Posted by: gersen | Feb 13 2015 15:07 utc | 137

I'm equally sure that Putin's call for federalisation is not at all illusory. By Alice at 40.

Putin's line since day one. One can hope of course.

However. One standard argument is that too much murder and destruction has taken place, and that forgiveness from ppl in the Donbass will not be forthcoming. Also, a large part (?) of the ppl there want autonomy. Turning that around in the best of conditions and with time is not impossible one can always pray for a re-birth, renewal. In this configuration, I think ..unealistic..

Second, the Donbass is wrecked, completely. Considerable investment and pacification etc. would have to take place to get it to even where it was before, which was not very favorable and sinking. Nobody will step up to the plate, nobody is interested (besides those on the ground) though Russia might be counted on to ‘help.’

The Kiev Junta wants rid of the Donbass. That attitude stretches from genocidal desires and actions to building a wall. Kiev wants no more dealings with the problems of an industrial region sinking for years now not to mention cultural/ethnic issues, Russia, and so on. In fact they have rid themselves of it already. As I have pointed out previous, they have cut finances (incl. banking), state services, pensions (etc.) transport and have enclaved with checkpoints etc. Though they don’t stop or exclude internal refugees. Some things can be broken easily bit by bit but repair or turning the clock back is 1000x more difficult.

The Kiev Junta is not rational - rife with oligarchic and Mafiesque fights, schemes, heists, theft, graft, personal alliances, clans, etc. They sold their Russophobia, genuine or exagerated - thus their hate of part of their country - for cash on the barrel. Now they are stuck with it, it represents their very existence. The war, a civil war, of course serves many side purposes, such as patriotism is supposed to compensate for inflation, rising prices, family budgets down the drain, schooling cut, meds not available, being fired, conscripted for cannon fodder, suspected, arrested, (Ppl are waking up.) I even doubt that if one removed US/other W influence/support/control, meaning pro-war, anything much would change for the better. Ditto for Russia’s support for the separatists. But that is an exercise of the imagination, unreal really, as various interested parties want escalation.

‘Federalization’ is a blanket concept that covers many different situations. I haven’t read the text of Minsk 2.0 but obviously there can’t be much about that. The Donbass will not accept some new lame voting rights and ‘local govs’, some sorts of vague concessions to self-governance. They had it before and it didn’t work. In some situations, you can force a couple to marry (in the sense that they comply as best choice for them) but you cannot force them to love each other.

In other news people are leaving Kosovo. Another US/EU success project. somebody at 120.

Yes, the numbers are staggering. I wasn’t really aware, as CH is filled with ex-Yougoslavs in any case, so more are not noticeable. Kosovo is literally emptying out.

Posted by: Noirette | Feb 13 2015 15:12 utc | 138

The Minsk agreement is all it could be from Putin's point of view.
Putin should never have agreed to any permanent concessions until the July sanctions expire. The other sanctions don't matter as they help Putin with his onshoring of oligarch money much more than hurt Russia overall.
The agreement also reinforces the notion that Ukraine needs to be federalized, which in turn means no NATO.
Lastly, the agreement does change a lot in that the responsibility is no longer Poroshenko's alone, but France and Germany who are publicly on the hook. Equally important is that the US was conspicuously frozen out of the discussion.
It is exactly this type of situation which is why Strelkov was pushed out. Kudos to the man for organizing the early NovoRussian defense, but his mouth is simply not controllable nor is he in any way a statesman.

Posted by: ǝn⇂ɔ | Feb 13 2015 15:14 utc | 139

@B:
- Spot on.
- I also don't believe for one minute that "Minsk 2.0" has solved anything. I think Merkel & Hollande hope that this buy the EU time to come up with something else. And it gives the US time to send more arms to the Ukraine.
- Do you REALLY think that $ 17 billion will solve anything ? I think the Ukraine will use that money to buy weapons & line the pockets of the olichargs. The ukrainian people will receive nothing.
- Will e.g. the Azov brigade accept this agreement ? I highly doubt it.
- I think Poroshenko does know ukrainian troops are surrounded but he simply doesn't want to admit it.
- Monitoring by drones gives the US a good excuse to send more weapons to Kiev.

No, "Minsk 2.0" simply is a pause for the next battle. People say that Putin gained the most as a result of this agreement. I don't share that view. The party that gained the most was the US, IMO. The US wasn't present in Minsk and therefore isn't bound by the agreement. The $ 17 billion loan was indeed meant as a message to Poroshenko: "Keep fighting". But this is a loan and must be paid back somehwere in the future. It means the US has more leverage over the Ukraine and can now legally plunder Ukraine even more.

Agree. The IMF loan equals two stabs in the back of Merkel & Hollande and a guarantee "Minsk 2.0" is doomed to fail.

Posted by: Willy2 | Feb 13 2015 15:53 utc | 140

ǝn⇂ɔ

" The agreement also reinforces the notion that Ukraine needs to be federalized, which in turn means no NATO."

THis is bs, not your bs but Porky bs that have said the this for months now, there wont be any more power to this region.

As people say, this is just a "ceasefire" for Porky that was about to lose. So I am not sure the ukrainians in the east accepted this at all..

Posted by: Anonymous_test | Feb 13 2015 15:57 utc | 141

should be "I am not sure WHY the ukrainians in the east accepted this"

Posted by: Anonymous_test | Feb 13 2015 15:58 utc | 142

@139 Given this report about Yarosh, it's likely the separatist leadership and Putin fully expect significant problems within the Kiev government over the deal. The EU leaders don't want an escalation more than anything else, and Putin wants NATO out of the Ukraine and weaker relations between the U.S. and the EU. The separatists have more ammo for why they can't remain part of the Ukraine in future talks. They acted in good faith while the U.S. and it's Kiev allies were going on about invisible Russian tanks crossing the border.

Posted by: NotTimothyGeithner | Feb 13 2015 16:19 utc | 143

NotTimothyGeithner

I havent seen/read the Yarosh report, but how do you mean that the "separatists" gained by these talks since they were succeeding good at the moment vs Porky regime/army?

Posted by: Anonymous_test | Feb 13 2015 16:22 utc | 144

I do not understand the consequences of the ceasefire for Ukrainian forces in the "cauldron".

If Ukrainian government does not recognize rebel control of the road that could supply the cauldron, they will send a convoy on that road and declare a violation of ceasefire after the convoy will be attacked. That would mean a ceasefire lasting a day or two. Then there will be a blame and counter blame, etc.

If they do recognize the rebel control on the roads to the cauldron, does the ceasefire agreement allow them to supply the troops there? If not, they will have to evacuate. This will irritate the extreme nationalists enormously, possibly leading to a coup executed by the nationalist volunteer battalions. There was some mocking on "pro-Russian" side that Poroshenko did not notice that his troops are encircled, but I think that politically, he could not admit it.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Feb 13 2015 16:23 utc | 145

@141 Do you know the man power situation of the NAF? Those new recruits aren't ready for duty. They have to be assimilated. Units need to be reorganized. Many of the soldiers have been fighting for two solid months. This isn't a patrol where they call in A-10s to destroy the building where they kind of a pop or bang noise. They need rest. At least according to twitter, NAF commanders are estimating a 4 to 1 casualty rate which sounds great in a vacuum, but what was the manpower situation? They may not have the forces to break the Kiev forces. Reloading and digging in while preparing to counter attack an enemy which lost its air force, angered it's own domestic population, lost many of its trained soldiers, and shows a limited ability to change tactics might make sense.

Fighting the war is so much easier on the Internet, but even I take breaks from Civilization II.

The NAF might have a big prize in the cauldron. Taking foreign mercs alive would be a big win as it would undermine Western propaganda which even the BBC is interested in backtracking on.

Posted by: NotTimothyGeithner | Feb 13 2015 16:47 utc | 146

You-tube less than one minute, eng. subs. Poro speaks. (Not about Minsk 2.0)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAVFhPu5fio&feature=youtu.be


Posted by: Noirette | Feb 13 2015 16:48 utc | 147

NotTimothyGeithner

"This isn't a patrol where they call in A-10s to destroy the building where they kind of a pop or bang noise. They need rest."

Sure but that wont generate a win since Mr Porky then also could "rest" and start over with fresh power in a situation where they were very very weak.

Posted by: Anonymous_test | Feb 13 2015 18:25 utc | 148

@38 Scott: I extend my hand, Sir.

Posted by: Snake Arbusto | Feb 13 2015 18:39 utc | 149

@A_t #141
If you're trying to demonstrate your credibility and expertise, you've failed miserably as Poroshenko has never been for federalization.
Equally, the notion that the NovoRussians can take all of Ukraine is fanciful - especially if Russia cuts off Voentorg.
Don't mistake a heroic defense for the ability to survive as an independent nation.

Posted by: ǝn⇂ɔ | Feb 13 2015 18:42 utc | 150

If Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Interior Minister Arsen Avakov are
selling the lethal weapons destined for the surrounded Ukrainian Army in the Debaltsevo cauldron, what does it say about their real intentions?

1) They are in it just for the money and plunder
2) Want the Ukrainian Army to fail so that the West is forced to come to the rescue
3) Closely coordinated strategy with Vicky "Cookie Monster" Nuland
4) All of the above
5) None of the above

It is clear that PM Yats is not playing this for the UAF to win as the Maidan junta doesn't have a workable plan for the Ukraine other than following the puppet-master's script. I suspect that this treasonous strategy is closely coordinated with the neocon warmonger faction represented in Obama's administration by Maidan Engineer Vicky "Cookie Monster" Nuland.

The sick rationale is this: Should the Ukrainian Army fail in a disaster, the separatist rebels will gain much territory from Ukraine. This would be unacceptable to European and US politicians. An escalation of the Ukrainian war by the West will be deemed unavoidable.

Thus, regardless of Minsk I or II or whatever, the West plans are just "moar" war coming to a theater near you.

Posted by: Sun Tzu | Feb 13 2015 19:01 utc | 151

scott

a foff dear chap is the release of a pocket of air trapped by a pair of particularly large buttocks that have been placed over another person,s facial area and then suddenly removed causing a foff sound

Posted by: mcohen | Feb 13 2015 19:45 utc | 152

« previous page

The comments to this entry are closed.