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How Can We Solve The Problem Of Fully Automated Production?
This 40 minutes video shows the production of the BMW i3 car. It is a fully electric car made from carbon fiber on an aluminum structure.
(An ever longer video series showing more of the pre-production process – part 1, 2, 3 and 4.)
The factory and the production process is all new. What is impressive and depressing is the lack of people. There are hundreds of robots doing their jobs and in total maybe 20 people feeding them materials and later on another 20 people outfitting the car interiors.
An in depth report of the production process gives some impressions from the car body production line:
Body Shop head Ralf Brüggemann, like Koschkar, manages most of the operations in the facility from a mezzanine that overlooks the plant floor. At first glance, the Body Shop visitor confronts a sea of orange robots (173 in all, supplied by ABB Robotics, Zurich, Switzerland), constantly turning, rotating, lifting and placing black carbon fiber parts and structures in an array of discrete, enclosed assembly cells. Only occasionally does one see shop personnel move components from one cell to another. … “We are at 99.7 percent quality,” Brüggemann claims, but adds, “we are always chasing higher quality.”
Brüggemann, who has experience in other BMW assembly plants, also says that the i3 Life Module Body Shop is “less complex than a steel body shop. Lighter weight makes product handling much simpler.”
A high quality product, simpler to make than the older ones and in a nearly totally automated environment. In total some maybe 400 people are producing 40,000 new cars per year. Many of those cars will likely be sold through automated processes on a few internet sides.
The factory shows a very high degree of automation that will become the standard of all production. In future hardly anyone of the population of industrialized nations will work in manufacturing industries. This immense automation push is historical comparable to the industrial revolution which put many people into poverty, emigration or death.
One wonders then how people are supposed to get enough income to buy products like the i3. How can we handle the social disruption such technology leaps produce?
One interesting concept I am learning about is a machine tax used to distribute a part of the income from production into a guaranteed basic income for everyone. Is that a possible solution?
What a perspicacious perambulation away from constant prognostication of the next pugnacious politician’s prevaricating populist platitudes!
But let’s go a little deeper than skipping stones over the mill pond of technology, like some scruff schoolkid playing hooky from physics class.
I started out as a farm equipment machinist, and was one of the lucky ones to see the very first NC automation, a roll of punch ribbon fed into a ‘robotic’ controller, on an otherwise ordinary milling machine.
The machine shop owner was giddy, his newly appointed NC ‘programmer’ stood by proudly, as they loaded an aluminum blank on the machine bed, and pressed the GO button. With a bright whirr, and moving at alarming speed, the very first robotic machine tore into that aluminum blank in geometric precision, as that tune about Ol’ John Henry sang in my head.
“When John Henry was a little baby. A sitting on his papa’s knee. He picked up a hammer and a little piece of steel. Said, “Hammer’s gonna be the death of me, Lawd, Lawd, hammer’s gonna be the death of me.”
Then just as John Henry laid down his hammer and died, when the whining cutter head should have moved up, over, and down again, the NC tape had a ‘hanging chad’, so the cutter head tore sideways through an intricate maze of passages it had just carved, then buried itself into the mill’s tool bed, throwing white hot sparks and molten blobs of red lava, until it had firmly welded that precision mill into a $75,000 piece of junk.
It’s not automation that’s the enemy, it’s the complex programming.
I moved in the opposite direction for awhile, learning under a German diesel mechanic, but you can only advance there as master:apprentice, it’s a lifelong grind. So I flipped around and learned NC programming, just as basic 8086 computers and digital controllers became available to write complex CNC programming, …and start creating shapes that the world had never seen before, at least, the guys out on the shop floor.
Again, I was lucky to see the first attempt at a miniaturized hard- drive platen. My job was to program, then cut four perfect 3″ circles out of that vapor-deposited pure-silicon slice, with four perfectly concentric hub holes. “The holes must be PERFECT!” my Swedish boss wrung his hands. The CNC program was pristine, the setup precise and triangulated three times. I pushed GO, everything on the laser cutter seemed to go OK, then plink, plink, plink, plink, four shiny platens …but when they spun them up to 6500rpm, one of them disintegrated.
It’s not automation that’s the enemy, it’s the Scale of Technology.
Anyway, with primitive PCs readily available, I focused exclusively on combining procedural code with logic coding, locked myself away for a winter, and wrote one of the first commercial engineering programs. Got an invitation to show it to a prestigious software bundler, ran their pre-solved math problem … and my answer was wrong by exactly 2.0000.
I found the missing 1/2-factor in my code, and begged over the phone for a chance to recompile and retest. But nobody gets a second chance.
It’s not automation that’s the enemy, it’s the Rule of Technocracy.
What used to take many years solving on mechanical computers now takes mere seconds. What used to be impossible to produce by any form of tool making, is now possible to reproduce complex curvilinear mathematics in metallic form. And with the advent of nano-3D printing, right now, even as we speak, it will soon be possible to create them at fairly low cost.
But who today, from 2000 Coup Now 14 Years After, has pocket change?
e-Books and e-Tool-making will go all electronic, with only the sweat equity in writing as their production cost, and therein lies the risk. You would think that as production becomes as easy as learning to code- write, and as consumption becomes as easy as $1.99 on the Apple Store, that we would have achieved the Best of All World’s through automation, where any bright young guy or gal can write their own retirement.
It’s not automation that’s the enemy, it’s the Global Omniverse.
You can hire India(n) writers for $1.21 an hour, that’s what a Silicon Valley programming company was caught paying their India(n) outsource. Media monopolies around the world employ India(n) reporters and copy writers and story editors for merely pennies per word now, mere dollars per story. I know engineering firms that are entirely India(n) back office. Then everything populist, consumable and mass produced, can be done for nearly zero cost, but at far below a living minimal wage. And everything luxurious, complex, and uniquely produced, goes to an elite cadre of the Best and Brightest, which is becoming vanishingly small.
Just like the BMW i3. Who will buy it? We are all the way retrograde to the Age of Pharoahs now, where only those of The Chosen, or the Technocrat Priest Class, or the Fawning Looting Bureaucrats, will ever see the shiny glint of gold in their purse.
While natural and strategic resources are now harder and harder to find, still the prices of those refined resources have been crashing since July. Everything is grinding to a halt. The world is heading into a massive overproduction hyper-deflation. The Monopoly game is almost over. It’s almost End Time.
All that’s only partly due to ‘automation’, of what’s in reality faulty electronic reprogramming of Everything … The Hive … The Collective.
So a Robot Tax won’t save us. A Millionaire’s Tax won’t either. Wealth among the burgeoning masses is shrinking faster than a rain puddle on the Kalahari.
Remember what Jesus said, “The poor will always be among us, but I will not always be with you.” He knew when to bug out. Except now there is no place left to bug out too.
It’s not automation that’s the enemy, it’s our MultiVariant GooglePlex.
It’s our inability to grasp the fundamental concepts of Lobachevski.
Posted by: ChipNikh | Nov 20 2014 11:00 utc | 38
In the present state of affairs, some production is ‘cheaper’, easier, steadier, by robot-use as compared to human labor.
Ex: the old-time bank-teller who receives ppl, hands out cash, keeps track, etc. and is replaced by an ATM and computerised accounting. The ATM, incl. even creation, servicing, etc. plus the computer management behind the scenes is ‘cheaper’ than Smithy and all his colleagues, who require an OK salary for 35 years to decently support wife, children.
The energy and materials inputs of the ATM come not exactly for free but are cheap, from the earth tht can still be exploited. As they are not accounted for, except in ‘free market’ terms, buying titatium, whatever rare metals, or plastics (oil based), and even electricity, provides the advantage.
Nobody is tallying how much it ‘costs’ in the long term to capt and exploit ressources, or questioning how ressources should be allocated, preserved, or paid for.
Should one ‘waste’ or ‘use’ energy on ATM’s? How does the food + shelter, water, heat, etc. the teller needs to survive compare with the automatics? Is that even a comparion that is worth thinking about? What are the arguments for maintaining, supporting, employment when automation might be more profitable? For whom, why, how? What about resource depletion, peak oil etc.? Why and how compare the two? Where is the authority that provides the numbers, and who are the decision makers, how can they enforce anything? If the teller and his children be left to starve, that poses other problems..
Dozens of questions like this have no answers as they are not asked, plus there is no framework for the discussion.
Profit, short-term, is all.
Some French economists propose that the gains in productivity, mostly, but not only, due to automation (implying consequent fossil energy use, slave labor that is kept invisible, often defended by military might, all that is just taken for granted) be shared with workers. Those who are out of jobs, get a stipend / stake in the new, ‘profitable productivity.’ This idea was proposed a long time ago by technocratic socialists, who didn’t like the Luddites, were all for ‘progress’, and sharing. – Sismondi and followers, see also zingaro at 11, … as if the only problem was ‘inequality’.
Mike at 12, it is odd that Riffkin’s book has suddenly taken on a new life, in France most of all.
Posted by: Noirette | Nov 20 2014 20:14 utc | 51
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