Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 25, 2014

Ukraine: Winter And Reigniting The War

(While I am busy ..)

The Saker says something is up in Ukraine. He expects a Ukrainian offense after tomorrows election (in which the anti-coup opposition is given no real chance to compete).

As I wrote earlier I believe that Jack Frost makes a new military campaign unlikely. I am not sure which side would want to again heat up the low flame "truce" war that has waged over the last weeks. Though both sides seem to have some itch for it.

But it has started freezing in Ukraine and a winter-war would be mostly road-bound, difficult to proceed for both sides with some additional advantages for those defending build up areas. Tanks and trucks would get stuck in muddy fields. It is not the environment in which one can expect wide space taking movements that would change the overall situation.

I am therefore scratching my head and wondering what military genius, obviously without any knowledge of World War II battles in Ukraine, would plan for such a campaign. It would be a quite lunatic endeavor.

Posted by b on October 25, 2014 at 19:08 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page

@95

"Having the whole world in search of the unknown submarine with a hint of Russian trace, Swedish military, as it turned out, was looking for a budget increase for military needs. And achieved his goal."

Budget Increased. Mission accomplished

Posted by: Yonatan | Oct 27 2014 16:39 utc | 101

Well, logically b's doubts about "something going on" are more about The Saker's sanity rather than Ukraine's...

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 27 2014 16:59 utc | 102

My German father joined the Waffen SS 10th Panzer division because he had spent some years in Tarnopol in Ukraine before the war and saw the famine brought on by Stalin with his own eyes. After the war, he was a POW of the French who said he'd be a free man if he joined the French Foreign Legion to fight in Vietnam, so he was disgusted by both sides, the West and the Soviet Union, not to mention the Nazis.

Posted by: Wolfgang | Oct 27 2014 20:20 utc | 103

@103:

Tarnopol was in Poland at the time. And to join the SS one had to be a member of the Nazi party.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 28 2014 1:12 utc | 105

to guest77 at 64 --

"The fact is that, when the history is written 300 years from now (should we survive till then, and should our history), it will show the USSR as the progressive power that was instrumental in ending the European Empires."

If I might indulge in a little shameless self-promotion -- I considered this question at some length, and Oceania Saker was kind enough to post the results earlier this month. "Ye Shall Know Them By Their Fruits: Observations on the Progressive Nature of the Soviet Union and its Inheritance by the Russian Federation" Part I and Part II.

Augmented Ether, who runs it, was kind enough to say this in his intro. to the second part. "We feel it is very important to dispel myths, correct wrongs and attempt to at least present the past with some integrity. The one sided 'Soviet Union was evil' narrative has corrupted far too many minds and has denied an equally greater number to ever actually know or even begin to understand the Russian people." Hopefully, I've done my bit to correct this.

I would have liked to have posted this earlier in this thread, but I've been a little busy the last couple of days.

To turn to the Ukr. elections, that Poroshenko and Popular Front are neck and neck at around 20% is quite interesting, as is the fading of Lyashko and the Radicals. Poroshenko's bloc was polling at 30-40%, with Lyashko second. Could be bad polling (I can see a no. of possible flaws) or maybe irregularities. Turnout fairly low, so a little massaging the returns could go a long way. If genuine, it would seem that voters want their civil violence a little more organized and discreet than the brand offered by Lyashko and Pravyi Sektor.

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 28 2014 3:12 utc | 106

10/27/2014

Commentary: To clarify yesterday post #86, the reason why military engineers were involved (unsuccessfully) in unblocking Bahkmutka’s outpost 32 is that the outpost is surrounded by mine fields.

No other information on specific developments in Novorossia was posted today


Russian Spring

10/27/2014-18:19

In an interview with Igor` Strelkov he informed of his website and that he is opening a fund to accept aid to help Donbass:

I am personally creating an integral fund to aid Donbass. At the moment, I have opened an account to help combatants. I control this account. The requisites are available from website Information Corpus. This site discusses other forms of help.

It is very important to know that Information Corpus does not maintain other addresses or duplicates, just icorpus.ru.

Diverse sites have been created under my name such as “Site of Igor` Strelkov”, “Igor` Strelkov in Facebook” and so on. These are filled with nonsense to compromise myself and the combatants. But there is indeed my personal official website. Its address is www.igorstrelkov.ru


Posted by: Fete | Oct 28 2014 3:51 utc | 107

Sorry Wolfgang (#103) but your history is a bit off. As Vintage Red points out your father could have been a NAZI and the Tarnopol story sounds unlikely. Maybe it is time to go back and re-examine some of the stories that you learned at your father's knee. If your father served in the 10th panzer division during WWII it is not at all surprising that he lost all interest in being soldier serving the French. Combat fatigue is a very real condition and it is not surprising he lost his appetite for war after the beating his division experienced at the hands of the Red Army in Pomerania in 1944.

It sounds really strange that your father witnessed the Stalin induced famines in Tarnopol before WWII since, as was pointed out, that was in Poland, not the Ukraine. Is this just a coincidence, but it was in Tarnopol that the 10th panzer division first experienced combat in the spring of 1944 (at this late stage of the war new SS divisions consisted of conscripts so it is possible he was not a member of the NAZI party. Gunther Grass was in that division and he certainly was never a NAZI.)

In any case, thanks for sharing your family history with us, I am interested in these stories.

Posted by: ToivoS | Oct 28 2014 6:24 utc | 108

Lysias #65. The German offensive against Russia began in the spring of 1941. The goal of the Central Front was Moscow. The first major battle to thwart that goal was the Battle of Smolensk. This battle lasted two months but the Germans did finally succeed. However, Gurderian's panzer army then was diverted to Kiev to remove a threat to their right flank. The advance on Moscow did not begin again until mid September 1941. This offensive was finally crushed on the out skirts of Moscow in December 1941 by the Soviet counter offensive.

Posted by: ToivoS | Oct 28 2014 7:00 utc | 109

Election news:

Ukrainian TV claims 99.9% voter turnout… even in Crimea!

United States holds successful elections in Ukraine

The latter article includes suspicions that the election commission reassigned many votes from Lyashko’s Radicals to Yatseniuk’s PF. I don't know whether this is so or not, but if it is, to borrow phrasing from Rufus M. above, such "irregularities" may indicate that the US prefers Ukrainian civil violence to be a little more organized and discreet...

Resistance news:

Nikolaev Republic Underground Address

“A new society is forming… After May 2 we are not timid about our methods…”

Rebellion is imminent in Mariupol

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 28 2014 7:22 utc | 110

Today on NPR news a NY Times reporter was interviewed and said that the election demonstrated a massive defeat for the pro Russian parties in Ukraine. He mentioned that the CP for the first time ever failed to elect a single member to Ukrainian parliament and the Party of Regions was completely trounced. It showed that the Ukrainian people's over-whelmingly desire to join the EU! I didn't recognize the name of this NYT reporter but maybe this is how the west is going to spin the results of this election.

Posted by: ToivoS | Oct 28 2014 8:02 utc | 111

oops, my mistake, my father wasn't in Tarnopol but further east during the thirties in Stalin's Russia with some of his German speaking relatives to help out on the farm. Yes, he was in the 10th Waffen SS division, just like Guenther Grass, who was not a member of the Nazi party, btw. You speak of the Soviet Union like it was a paradise on earth, just to make your point that the Americans and western europeans can be guilty of something. The truth is, the Soviet Union was not a great place to live and they were guilty of imprisoning if not killing millions of their citizens.

Posted by: Wolfgang | Oct 28 2014 13:17 utc | 113

by the way, Bild is reporting that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has pancreatic cancer. They refer to a story in the NY post which I have been unable to find.

Posted by: Wolfgang | Oct 28 2014 13:18 utc | 114

Wolfgang 103

And? What is your point with these posts?

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 28 2014 13:47 utc | 115

@115 to people saying that the Holomodor is exaggerated, that the Soviet Union was a great place, etc. The truth is, it was horrible, Stalin is responsible for millions upon millions of deaths and that the people who witnessed it can attest to it, and that those people were not pro-Western stooges.

Posted by: Wolfgang | Oct 28 2014 13:50 utc | 116

Like I thought, all of a sudden someone calling himself "Wolfgang" show up, and start to whine about Soviet union based on fabricated story about your relative.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 28 2014 14:58 utc | 117

NY Post story on Putin and pancreatic cancer here. Doubtful source (Page Six gossip column), fishy story.

Posted by: lysias | Oct 28 2014 15:56 utc | 118

The elections were done to cement the Kiev-East.

To augment a divide with the Donbass. To present a democratic face, legitimacy, and have the W applaud a new Gvmt, an anti-corruption one (not.) To this end, a plurality of political parties were allowed, which do present ideological differences (e.g. Svoboda vs. Opposition bloc.) These pol. parties are a re-shake, a re-mix, of many previous figures, oligarchic, hangers-on, etc. The only real pol. division, *if any*, and that has to be enphasised, is between the extreme nationalists or fascists and all the rest, who are concentrated on only on thing: their status, popularity, pocket-books, gains.. for ex. the money that will be made from privatization will be consequent. Whether Poro or Yats' party (both new formations) win more votes is no account. Other parties, as we all know, were prevented from competing (Regions, Communists.) This applies to candidates as well: intimidation, threats, lustration, etc.

The bar to enter is high. To be a candidate from a district, which are subdivisions of Oblasts (50% of the seats) costs about 10,000 dollars, and around 100,000 for a party candidate. These are huge sums for Ukr. The money is returned only to those who win. These are the official rules. Ppl should stop thinking about the Ukr. parliament as if it were anything like a W parliament. It is simply a sink pit of money interests and criss-crossing aims and internal deals, rife with mafia-like and violent acts, and other things unmentionable. The ‘binning’ of some parliamentarians is a cute, funny meme for the intertubes.

These new election results won’t lead to any change, except to cristallize the E/W division. Poro is the W point-man, “pro-peace”, and they will support him, *for now.* Not with any amounts of money though, not to shore up the country/banks, pay the gas bills, support the local currency, re-build, etc. As for joining the EU, this is a pipe-dream that was sold to naive Russophobes, Kiev twitter-types, languid hopefuls, those who follow power always (now Poro) and bloodthirsty neo-Nazis (as a pretense of least-bad on their part, they are not for US / EU domination or jewish oligarchs, etc.)

The USA’s main aim in this story was to split Russia away from Europe. That has succeeded now. A secondary aim was to poke the Russian bear (the idea that Russia would intervene over the Ukr. matter and be provoked was utterly fantastic), shape W-world opinion against Putin > check that box. For the rest, nobody has any interest in continuing the conflict in Ukr. Except for the violent forces within Ukr. itself., some oligarch quarrels I presume, and the ppl. of Novorussia who with Russian support want to gain some independence / ties to Russia… well we will see.

Posted by: Noirette | Oct 28 2014 16:08 utc | 119

no, this story is not fabricated about my father. Quite a sad story, actually. My father was born just outside of Koenigsburg, grew up in Danzig, had to go work on a relative's farm in the Ukraine because his stepmother hated him, fought with the 10th Waffen SS division, surrendered and was a POW in the camp outside of Lyon, in St Fons I think it was called, and was offered freedom if he fought in Indochina with the French Foreign Legion.
He said that the saddest thing he ever saw in his life were the people in Ukraine who were lucky to have some bread to eat. He detested all governments and said that they had been responsible for starvation in the Soviet Union, war in europe and Indochina, and wanted to continue their savagery even after WWII.

Posted by: Wolfgang | Oct 28 2014 16:28 utc | 120

@119 noirette.. thanks for the summation.. i pretty well agree with it too..

Posted by: james | Oct 28 2014 16:31 utc | 121

@Noirette, 119:

Yes, and thank you for pointing out the "You must be this rich to enjoy this ride" aspect of the junta elections.

"A plurality of political parties was allowed"--I'd noticed this "choice of fascists"; Fort Russ blog called it

Fifty Shades of Brown

The Novorossiyan News Service interprets the results in light of anti-fascist sentiment and the prospects for Novorossiya:

Novorossiya is not a phantom

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 28 2014 17:20 utc | 122

Meanwhile, Putin's presidential rating in Russia falls by 10 percentage points. Gazeta.ru experts comment: "Crimean euphoria couldn't last forever". Journalist Yakovlev bitterly notes that "the Ukraine that we were fighting against the last 9 months only existed in our leaders' imagination; and about the real country south-west from RF they know not much more than about some Burkina Faso".

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 28 2014 19:16 utc | 123

But this one is even more ironic: Dmitry Yarosh, leader of the "Right Sector" has just won a seat in the parliament by votes of Dnipropetrovskiy region - there wasn't any voting further to the east, this one is just next to the Donbass...

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 28 2014 19:25 utc | 124

NATO warmonger against Russia again
http://presstv.com/detail/2014/10/28/383969/nato-ramps-up-antirussian-rhetoric/

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 28 2014 21:39 utc | 125


US embassy staff in moscow claim harrassment!
TASS ‏@tassagency_en ·51 mins51 minutes ago
Russia denies allegations that U.S. embassy staff in Moscow is harassed http://en.tass.ru/russia/757015

but the same US embassy staff as in ukraine are aiding dissidents

http://www.activistpost.com/2012/05/russian-opposition-caught-filing-into.html

Posted by: brian | Oct 28 2014 21:58 utc | 126

What choice does Poroshenko have? The two eastern provinces have rejected the option of autonomy within Ukraine, opting for independence which Ukraine can't allow. In fact it wants Crimea back. The recent election gives Poro the majority he needs in the parliament, and a pro-EU coalition is being formed. Of course nobody wants war, but ...

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 27, 2014 11:22:29 AM | 95

crimeans have no intention of going back...and Crimea was part of ukraine only for 24 years

Posted by: brian | Oct 28 2014 22:01 utc | 127

Meanwhile, Putin's presidential rating in Russia falls by 10 percentage points. Gazeta.ru experts comment: "Crimean euphoria couldn't last forever". Journalist Yakovlev bitterly notes that "the Ukraine that we were fighting against the last 9 months only existed in our leaders' imagination; and about the real country south-west from RF they know not much more than about some Burkina Faso".

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 28, 2014 3:16:47 PM | 123


what? russia has NOT been fighting the ukraine...that notion exists in that 'journalists' imagination.

just how russian is that Gazeta?

Posted by: brian | Oct 28 2014 22:05 utc | 128

Well, logically b's doubts about "something going on" are more about The Saker's sanity rather than Ukraine's...

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 27, 2014 12:59:15 PM | 102

You dont like the Saker....

Posted by: brian | Oct 28 2014 22:06 utc | 129

To VR at 110, 122 --

Some interesting material, can't read it now. I'm particularly interested in the "reassigned" votes.

Did have enough time a few mins. ago to check one of my fave sites, No Bread and Circuses for You. Always interesting links, like this one to a pc. by a Polish journalist, Two minutes Hate – Emanuel Goldestein in Eastern Ukraine.

His conclusion is worth quoting -- "We come to the point where fascist slogans 'Glory Ukraine, glory to the heroes' throughout Europe are treated not as an analogy of 'Heil Hitler' but something peaceful and democratic."

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 28 2014 22:07 utc | 130

@124 Ulster

Dniepropetrovsk is the fiefdom of that scumbag Zionist oligarch Kolomoisky. Connect the dots.(the dots, by the way, go all the way back to the hijacking of the Maidan protests)

Coercion at Ukrainian Polls Denounced
http://www.plenglish.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3208181&Itemid=1

Yuri Boyco, leader of the so-called Ukrainian Opposition Bloc, demanded today the removal from office of the Governor of Dniepropetrovsk, oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who ordered his armed groups to occupy the electoral colleges in that city.
Boyco said this was an unprecedented situation, and denounced that people would be "forced to vote at gunpoint."


and this under-reported murder of one of the last honest politicians in the Ukraine

Ukraine: Privat Chameleon: Who killed Semenjuk?
http://translate.google.ca/translate?hl=en&sl=cs&u=http://outsidermedia.cz/ukrajina-privat-chameleon-aneb-kdo-zabil-semenjuk/&prev=search">http://outsidermedia.cz/ukrajina-privat-chameleon-aneb-kdo-zabil-semenjuk/&prev=search">http://translate.google.ca/translate?hl=en&sl=cs&u=http://outsidermedia.cz/ukrajina-privat-chameleon-aneb-kdo-zabil-semenjuk/&prev=search

The former head of the Ukrainian State Property Fund Valentina Semenjuk warns that the real redistribution has yet occurred. Begins privatization of state assets proclaimed Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. In her view, the map Ukraine map battles between the oligarchs and the current artillery shelling of towns and factories in the East is the only artillery preparation of the upcoming redistribution:

"There is the mainly state-owned enterprises, which are neither Akhmetov, nor Kolomojského, but the state."

"This means that in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast currently actually bombard state assets?"

"Yes, there are many shafts. Then all these races will sell for a fraction of price. "

snip

Whether in September still divide what is not known. Igor Kolomojskyj called only remaining Ukrainian oligarch, took care of the extension of its influence far beyond his native Dnipropetrovsk.

Semidiďko further says: "He alone has kept the pot, which occupies 40% of the market in Ukraine, telekanál, metallurgy and monopoly in aviation. All this combines with state services. Checks virtually all the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Now it is possible to say that Odessa region, when he managed to evict FIRTAS here. Different ways discredited group, which focused on this second oligarch. He got so to ports. The same axis is also building in the Kharkiv region. "

"Recently they killed the mayor of Donetsk. Why kill him? Because he wanted to Kolomojskyj paid Ukrtatnafta and took charge of the modernization of the business. Its killed just because they wanted to ensure the economic security of the territorial giant, "said Semenjuk.

Kolomojskyj, which includes less than half of the shares Ukrnafta well this company fully controls and blocks the dividend payment the state billions of dollars. This practice, when a minority owner operated company, is standard in the Ukraine. Rinat Akhmetov this way controls the lion's share of coal mining in the East

Posted by: pantaraxia | Oct 28 2014 22:38 utc | 131

@brian #128:

It comes across as pretty mainstream, unlike Novaya Gazeta, which reads as if it is written by Martians, not Russians.

@rufus magister #130:

Thanks for the link: it's nice to know about a sane Anglophone Polish blog. Any Pole who publicly fights Russophobia is to be greatly admired.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 28 2014 22:50 utc | 132

I have to laugh when I see "Wolfgang" laughed out of here immediately - his idiotic lies are so obvious, they don't even pass cursory examination. Here comes some fool to lie with the simple goal of slandering the Soviet Union, still apparently a worthwhile endeavor for supporters of capitalism some 24 years after the fall of the country. It just shows that there is strength and meaning in the imperfect example it created.

Though probably "Wolfgang" is you-know-who (wouldn't be the first time he's shown up with a phony biography, nostalgia for naziism, and fictions about "the famine Stalin made").

In other news:

http://rt.com/usa/200283-nasa-antares-rocket-explodes/

Was this one of those rockets that had to be used due to sanctions against Russia?

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 28 2014 23:16 utc | 133

@guest77 #133:

No, this has nothing to do with the sanctions. The company that builds that rocket got the contract in 2008. There were four successful launches of this rocket before the latest one. Four out of five is not very good. Nice to see a major fail by a commercial operator that launches rockets into space. Since the decommissioning of the space shuttle, NASA relies entirely on contractors and Russia to get supplies to the ISS. This privatization of the space program was just more neoliberal craziness. Well, this is what you get.

I must say I find your Russophilia deeply heartwarming. I just looked at Google News, and the rocket blowing up is at the top, so there is plenty of coverage from US outlets. Yet you give a link to RT. There is so much hate for RT in the Anglonet, so that is much appreciated.

And here is something I'm sure you'll like, if you haven't seen it already – a fawning British documentary about the Soviet space program:

Equinox.The Engines that came in from the Cold

BTW, I read in a Russian opinion piece that when all is said and done, Sovietophobia is just Russophobia. That is so true.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 29 2014 0:21 utc | 134

they are not lies. I used to post here occasionally under a different name. But this idealistic Soviet Union you are writing about is totally a figment of your imagination. I am amazed that people like you still exist.

Posted by: Wolfgang | Oct 29 2014 1:17 utc | 135

@135 wolfgang, are you also amazed at how many people believe this idealistic idea of the west/the usa still exists? i can tell you it's much more fiction then anything to do with reality as well..

Posted by: james | Oct 29 2014 1:34 utc | 136

Actually, the documentary I mentioned at #134 is very relevant to this latest catastrophe. The engines that Orbital Sciences uses for the rockets it sends to the ISS are refurbished Soviet engines built in the 1960s and 70s. See WP: NK-33.

I wonder if we'll ever find out why the rocket blew up. That could be a trade secret.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 29 2014 3:28 utc | 137

This could be the Ukrainians' fault. From a Guardian comment:

Rockets that explode, usually do so because of a fuel leak somewhere outside the rocket engine, in some part of the vehicle which is not designed to contain an explosion.
And from Wikipedia:
As Orbital has little experience with large liquid stages and LOX propellant, some of the Antares first stage work was contracted to the Ukrainian Yuzhnoye SDO, designers of the Zenit series. The core provided by Yuzhnoye includes propellant tanks, pressurization tanks, valves, sensors, feed lines, tubing, wiring and other associated hardware.
The cause of the failure will be hushed up.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 29 2014 3:57 utc | 138

Russian Spring

10/28/2014-14:43

Combatant Prokhorov suggested that blocking Ukrainian outpost 32 in area of Bakhmutka/Smeloye, Lugansk, was a bait to decimate unblocking forces:

As everyone knows the forces defending the outpost were let out. Ukrainians surrendered the outpost and the weapons. 6 APCs BTR-4 were burned, 1 APC BTR-80 was in working order, taken as a trophy.

The citation of someone named Kas`yanov “Pals got out. With arms and remaining hardware”…

With personal arms – yes. It is well known the prosecutors turn blind eye to lost millions, but a lost gun is vehemently punished.

The “remaining hardware” is “GAZ-66” and “Ural” (lorry trucks) (they evacuated bodies yesterday). Everything else was dumped.

150 men defended the outpost (paratroopers, National Guards, territorial battalion from Vinitsa) – more than Cossacks surrounding the outpost. Screams about “20 tanks attacking the outpost” were merely a fantasy.


Russian Spring

10/28/2014-08:15

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov expressed opinion that elections in Donetsk and Lugansk Republics will realize, Russia will recognize the results:

“The elections, which will take place on November 2 on territory of Lugansk and Donetsk People Republics, are important from the point of view of legitimizing the sovereigns. We regard the elections as one of the most important aspects of the Minsk agreements”.

Commenting on the confrontation on South-East of Ukraine, he remarked that the work to determine the ultimate line to separate the sides of conflict is close completion:

“In next 2-3 days this line will be reconciled. Following that, backing of heavy weaponry becomes possible, which, certainly, will become a decisive factor to calm down the situation and exclude incidents.

In fair number of places the sides situate to close, which provokes conflagrations. Fortunately, the work to determine the separation line is being finalized… Currently the work continues on the ground with assistance of Russia side (asked by the combatants)”.

Posted by: Fete | Oct 29 2014 4:31 utc | 139

to ulster 2 124 --

There you are, my black and tan friend.

I had a look at your loose talk about fascism in the resistence in Novorossiya back on the "Ukraine: Waiting For Jack Frost," and just posted the last of it, FYI.

With all your evasions, you've run up quite a tab here, but you won't cover it in that currency.

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 29 2014 4:38 utc | 140

interesting article from slavyangrad titled "“They are playing tennis—three sets every match to try and kill us.”

one of the commentators to the article sums up my view on it well - the richard macdonald brown fellow.. is that the same fellow who used to frequent here named richard who also had a website and based out of london? maybe..

Posted by: james | Oct 29 2014 6:41 utc | 141

Wolfgang You appear here with some easily refuted stories about your glorious father serving in an SS division during wwII. Fine, I gues My father fought in that war (on the other side BTW) and he told me stories that he was not proud of. In fact he served 18 months in a front line battalion and came out of that experience as a pacifist. You then attack those of us who are sympathetic with modern Russia today by accusing us of being Stalinist who supported the collective farm movement that happened 80 years ago. That is really bizarre.

Please let us know what you think is happening today. Or are just trolling in support of modern fascist movements as was your father 70 years ago.

Posted by: ToivoS | Oct 29 2014 9:18 utc | 142

@129 Brian, go to the top of the article we are commenting since Saturday. The election was on Sunday. Now it's Wednesday. Where's the "Ukrainian offensive" that was going to happen after the election?

It's not only The Saker, it's also this blog's author whose works are long stream of failed catastrophic prophecies on Ukraine. It started around February this year, closely following Russian media's hysteria the burst of nationalism in Ukraine, about just-about-to-happen pogroms and ethnical cleansing of Russians etc...

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 29 2014 10:29 utc | 143

@Ulster
May be, just may be, the "Ukrainian offensive" will more conveniently take place after the US elections?

Posted by: acrimonious | Oct 29 2014 15:43 utc | 144

It isn't the Soviet Union any more. Godless Communism is gone. Russia is more Christian than we are. A cold war against them makes no sense.

Posted by: lysias | Oct 29 2014 15:53 utc | 145

Ulster @ 143 --

Well, we've seen what passes for evidence and logic with our Black and Tan friend here. All I'll say is that I put far more credence in the Saker and his skills and evidence than in Ulsters.

And c'mon, as far as I know now, official results are not in, no new Rada, no new gov't., should action be imminent, it's not likely to be 'til then. A little quick off the line, perhaps?

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 29 2014 23:10 utc | 146

I'm watching an interview with Igor Bezler that the Saker wrote about here. He speaks in Russian and the interviewer speaks in Ukrainian. In response (at 59:08) to the question of what nationality he considers himself to belong to, he says "Russian". "But you are Ukrainian by birth?" "Yes, I was born in the Ukrainian SSR. My mother is Ukrainian of [such and such] region; my father – Crimean. But Russian is not a nationality: it is a state of the soul."

Posted by: Demian | Oct 29 2014 23:13 utc | 147

I'm watching an interview with Igor Bezler that the Saker wrote today. (The spam filter won't let me give the link.) He speaks in Russian and the interviewer speaks in Ukrainian. In response (at 59:08) to the question of what nationality he considers himself to belong to, he says "Russian". "But you are Ukrainian by birth?" "Yes, I was born in the Ukrainian SSR. My mother is Ukrainian of [such and such] region; my father – Crimean. But Russian is not a nationality: it is a state of the soul."

Posted by: Demian | Oct 29 2014 23:15 utc | 148

@acrimonious #144

It's hard to say what's going on since we're now at D-day +2. I suspect the Ukies realize they're facing a different situation from the one they anticipated when they planned the offensive - Supplies flowing from the Voentorg, defensive preparations, attack forces getting messed with, bad supply situation around Debaltseve, and a potential debacle shaping up northwest of Lugansk. It can't help that NAF is essentially saying "bring it on." Once the offensive is launched, it would release NAF from the constraints of the Minsk accord and after defeat there would no longer be the political safety net of the demarcation line.

Posted by: Thirdeye | Oct 30 2014 0:12 utc | 149

To demian at 147 --

Here's a link to the Sakers page with the videos, Something very, very interesting has happened in Novorussia. Links are a para. or two down,

He also discusses a few of the highlights of the interviews with Bezler and Mozgovoi.

"One interesting thing was that when the Ukrainians accused the Novorussians of doing Russia's bidding, Mozgovoi replied that the Ukrainians were pawns of the CIA and, amazingly, the Ukrainians pretty much agreed that the CIA was running the show. As for Mozgovoi, he did not deny that Russia was helping.

"Both sides were expressing frustration that they could not unite their forces and jointly get rid of the oligarchs and Nazis.

"During the Bezler interview, there was one amazing moment was when the Ukrainian crew asked Bezler if he spoke Ukrainian, to which he replied that 'yes'. Unconvinced, the Ukrainian crew asked him if he could recite a poem by the famous poet Taras Shevchenko. Then, to everybody's surprise, Bezler recited the poem "to the Poles" in which Sevchenko describes how happy the Cossacks were...."

He then offers his own translation of Shevchenko, as he offers a disclaimer about it you'll have to follow the link.

And to 3rd Eye at 148 --

Good thinking, thanks.

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 30 2014 0:37 utc | 150

bottom line - the sakers comments on the imminence of the uke attack on eastern urkaine is still on hold as some of us suggested.. saker would be better off refraining from making predictions.. commenting on the build up is fine and appreciated.. making predictions is always difficult.

Posted by: james | Oct 30 2014 0:46 utc | 151

video Published on Oct 29, 2014 - content:

Vladimir Rogov of Slavic Guard gives a comprehensive view from the front and discusses the future path of Novorossia. Recorded 02 October 2014.

Posted by: james | Oct 30 2014 1:49 utc | 152

@james #150

There's political and military substance behind the prediction of imminent attack, although it seems somewhat less now than when the prediction was made. Forcing Russia to intervene militarily, potentially isolating themselves from G20 seems less likely. The incentive to cause a crisis in Novorossia before their election is still there, if they're still confident that they can deliver a sufficient blow. Deterioration of conditions due to the season and the continuous gnawing by NAF makes success less likely the longer they delay. If nothing major happens between now and November 3rd, it would be a pretty good sign that the Ukies see things going south.

Posted by: Thirdeye | Oct 30 2014 1:55 utc | 153

@rufus magister #149:

Yes, reciting that Shevchenko poem was brilliant. Shevchenko, as I understand it, is the Ukrainian Pushkin, so using Shevchenko to tell the Ukrainians that they are being played by Western powers once again was a masterstroke. That little exchange also shows that unlike the Anglosphere, the Russosphere is not yet postliterate.

@james #150:

Rebel leaders and Col, Cassad were saying that a new Ukie offensive was imminent as well. And they are much closer to the action than the Saker is. You may find Joaquin Flores' latest piece to be helpful here:

The Russians are indeed involved in a very sophisticated use of 4GW strategies and tactics to advance their position, as well as a ‘new media’ campaign which corresponds to (is actually part of) 4GW. They are using, also, new media methods to create a more effective simulacrum in which various hyper-realities are constructed.

Mostly these revolve around a lack of Russian support or resolve, and Novorossiyan weakness and divisions.

On a side note, this was especially amusing:
While being of above average intelligence, [Poroshenko] cannot be capable of really understanding the complexity of the constructed and managed world – the stage – upon which he acts. Imagine the frustration Poroshenko may feel, to be smart enough to understand that he is not smart enough to really understand; to be able to see in the distance the outlines of a system of world control, but to never really make out its features or get close enough to it. How must he feel being in a room with Putin, knowing that Putin has analyzed him and understands him far better than he understands himself? What must it be like to be a blind person who stands naked in front of the seeing?

Posted by: Demian | Oct 30 2014 2:01 utc | 154

Demian @ 153 --

I always found the Russian notion of "kulturnost'" fascinating. To be cultured, and not just some sort of technical drone, you had be culturally aware, not just a narrow specialist. And that had to include being able to recite some poetry. So quoting a national poet like Shevchenko is sort of a slam dunk.

Here of course, the geekier the better in pop-cult. We're a video culture. But not all is lost perhaps, a niece of mine actually asked my wife and I for some FS Fitzgerald as an HS grad present. We got her some short stories.

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 30 2014 2:40 utc | 155

@rufus magister 154:

I must admit that I had never heard of the term kultornost. Finding it in an online encyclopedia, I get the impression that it only became widespread in Soviet times. (Since I live in a video culture, it should not be surprising that the word nekulturny always reminds me of the girl in From Russia with Love.)

I don't think the concept of kulturnost is that different from that of Bildung – just less dialectical.

P.S. Russian Wikipedia doesn't even have an article about kultornost (культорность). That tells you how Russian Russian Wikipedia really is.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 30 2014 3:11 utc | 156

The Ukrainian regime is NOT going to go on the offensive against Donbas in the near future. As much as I respect Saker's analytic skills (and he is a very good analysis of information that is available) he does not have particularly good predictive abilities. No one does for that matter. Saker is too emotional at times and it shows when tries to predict what will happen next.

Having said that, Saker's latest post is really very interesting as has been described by Rufus and Demian above. I am actually feeling somewhat optimistic about developments in Ukraine. It looks like there are significant forces inside Ukraine that are opposed to the Neo-Nazi factions that gained power after the March coup. Also, it looks like the Neo-Nazi parties performed extremely poorly in this latest parliamentary election. Just maybe, the Ukrainians living in Central and Western Ukraine are not interested in fascism.

Posted by: ToivoS | Oct 30 2014 3:17 utc | 157

Russian Spring

10/29/2014-16:48

Summary from fronts by combatant Prokhorov

An Ukrainian outpost near city Volnovakha, Mariupol` direction, from which shelling is often carried out was targeted by “Grad”. In response, Ukrainians thrashed at Dokuchayevsk (the city facing Volnovakha).

An Ukrainian outpost 21 near Mariupol` was seriously hit.

The night passed rough. Ukrainian artillery shelled Dokuchayevsk three times with 2 hour intervals. The city center was hit.

Night battles broke out east of Debal`tsevo, in area of Nikishino, Chernukhini, Mius. The battles went on whole night.

Right now a combat has erupted on north of Debsal`tsevo.

During the night on south of Donetsk Republic Ukrainians were mowed between settlements Pavlopol` and Gnutoye - this is Mariupol` direction.


Russian Spring

10/29/2014-11:57

Vice-Premier of Donetsk Republic Andrey Purgin:

“The line separating the confronting sides has been negotiated. Kiev, explaining no reasons, withdrew the signature of its representative General Dumanskiy under related document.”

Posted by: Fete | Oct 30 2014 3:50 utc | 158

An interesting account of the experience of an OSCE inspector trying to get to the MH17 crash site in August-

http://slavyangrad.org/2014/10/28/they-are-playing-tennis-three-sets-every-match-to-try-and-kill-us/#more-4352

Posted by: Nana2007 | Oct 30 2014 4:38 utc | 159

Looking at Fete's latest posting above reminds me that the Ukrainians have never stopped their offensive operations in the east. I have no idea whether they will intensify of peter out due to winter. They could conceivably stay where they and continue shelling the civilian population all winter long, I would imagine.

I didn't watch Saker's linked videos, but his description of their contents seems to me consistent with Joaquin Flores latest : The Ukrainian Failed State: Analysis of Phase 3.

The Nazis morph into the badguys from the 'official' US/EU point of view ... a la ISIS when the murderers we put in the field against Assad changed their name ... and all of Ukraine is declared unified to fight against them in the west ... and in the east.

Under this cover all of the US/EU are plied with newsreels of Adolph Hitler, the bad 'old days', and fervor for the 'right war' ... as the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate says ... and any and all resistance (any and all people?) in the east is destroyed as Nazi 'terrorists'.

Besides being monstrous and criminal ... that doesn't bother the US/EU in the least, done it before will do it again ... that seems incredibly risky to me.

Risking starting a war with the nation which just delivered the goos to the people on the ISS after the US' 'privatized' rocket (bought from Russia/Ukraine apparently) blew up on the privateers on takeoff.

Risking a war with a nation that can still build nuclear weapons and can still build and operate rockets to deliver them.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 30 2014 4:46 utc | 160

@152 thirdeye - yes.. i was using the analogy of poker to describe the way i tend to think of it and how i described it after the saker made his prediction based on the info..

@153 demian. thanks. i have read some of those articles from Joaquin Flores, but not sure if i read all the parts. regarding my comment verses the fact that the rebel leaders and Col, Cassad were saying something similar to the saker - they have to as any bluff in a game of poker has to be treated seriously until the player makes their next move.. i continue to use this analogy as predicting war is much like predicting what a player on the opposite side of the poker table is doing when he bids a certain way.. you can't know until the hand is displayed.

@158 nana - see my comments @141 on that interview.. i liked the letter writer at the bottom that summed it up fairly well.. on the video i left @151 earlier tonight the fellow being interviewed discusses the role the OSCE plays for the west.. i believe it is somewhere in the 50 - to 60 minute mark in the video @151.. he basically suggests the OSCE is a tool of the west, to which i am inclined to agree with to a good degree..

Posted by: james | Oct 30 2014 5:51 utc | 161

@james #160:

Well, Flores makes much of the “Halting of the Voentorg”, and part of his analysis has long been how first the mass media (in 3GW), and now the Web and the blogosphere (in 4GW) create a hyperreality, so that when Col. Cassad makes a one-line comment that Voentorg has closed, that "fact" or meme is replicated across the Web. "Reports that it had been shut down, amplified and reflected through new media, became an undeniable truth; a new kind of truth only possible through new media." And indeed, I recall someone who very rarely posts here coming to MoA just to announce that voentorg had closed. (I responded to that post with annoyance, since I do not have a postmodern sensibility.) (By the way, Col. Cassad made a post today about Flores' discussion of him and El Murid, so this is all very postmodern and intertextual.)

I am not sure who you think is bluffing whom. I am not sure that an analogy to poker is the best means for understanding the 4GW going on between the US and Russia; to me, Flores' application of "Generational Warfare theory, and new media theory, and game theory" seems to be the way to go. Moscow had its reasons for closing down voentorg, and it had its reasons for opening it back up. The widespread belief that a new offensive by Kiev is imminent makes a good justification for the latter.

There is a very good pop culture metaphor for what Flores has in mind when he talks about simulacra and hyperreality: the film The Matrix. Flores writes: "Imagine the frustration Poroshenko may feel, smart enough to understand that he is not smart enough to really understand; to be able to see in the distance the outlines of a system of world control, but to never really make out its features or get close enough to it." Poroshenko understands that he is inside the Matrix, but he is trapped in it anyway, because he is not smart enough to be able to follow its internal operations, as opposed to only seeing its simulations. Putin, on the other hand, is Neo, the One: he can track the execution of the source code in real time, and so can bend and even break the rules, and create new simulacra.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 30 2014 6:46 utc | 162

US and Dutch Cover-up of MH-17 Ukraine Crash Evidence

Wow … Dutch investigative reporters have begun double-checking the arguments PM Rutte voiced to delay start of investigation. Three months have lapsed and there has hardly been any investigation of the MH-17 crash site in Donetsk.

Well, should I just say … I told you so last July? My analysis of the white-wash and lack of interest by the US and Dutch government to safeguard the wreckage has now become clear to the Dutch news media. From the start, the US and Dutch have frustrated gaining evidence to find the culprits who are responsible in shooting down the Malaysian passenger liner, flight MH-17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.

Just a few days ago, Dutch investigators of the prosecution team complained they have not yet received the compelling evidence of US satellite images the White House used as "evidence" the rebels shot down the Malaysian airliner MH-17 with Russian support.

Tonight, Dutch television broadcast a documentary in Nieuwsuur with interviews with Dutch officials, responsible members of the junta in Kiev, Donetsk rebel leaders and the ambassador of Malaysia to The Netherlands. The Dutch government leadership of PM Mark Rutte and FM Frans Timmermans (now a high-paying job as Brussels insider in EU) have been lying through their teeth from the start. I do hope this story won't go away and some serious questions will be asked ahead of a parliamentary debate in The Hague.

Posted by: Oui | Oct 30 2014 6:48 utc | 163

Here is the link to the media website and the report in Nieuwsuur, large parts are in the English language.
Dutch government and the MH-17 investigation plus video report.

More to follow as the morning papers will cover this story!

My earlier article on MH-17:
Was Malaysia MH-17 Downed by Su-25 Fighter Planes?

Posted by: Oui | Oct 30 2014 6:49 utc | 164

MH17 investigators still awaiting U.S., Russian intelligence reports

(Reuters) - Dutch prosecutors are still awaiting U.S. intelligence reports on the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 but American laws on passing on such information to criminal investigations are complicating the process, the Dutch government said.

The United States said its satellite imagery proved it was shot down with a ground-to-air missile by Russian-backed rebels. Russian intelligence says an Ukrainian military aircraft downed it.

"It is desirable for prosecutors to receive further information from the U.S. in connection with the criminal investigation," the government said in a letter to Parliament.

Lawmakers had asked whether the United States had provided imagery from the 10 minutes before and after the crash. Only the latter were referred to in an interim air crash inspection report published last month.

"In the American legal system it is judicially complicated to pass intelligence information to the criminal justice system," the letter said.

[Source Digplanet: Downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17/MAS17)]

Posted by: Oui | Oct 30 2014 9:04 utc | 165

MH17 investigators: Another plane might have shot down the mh17
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014930016

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 30 2014 11:06 utc | 166

@ 161 Demian

' "Imagine the frustration Poroshenko may feel, smart enough to understand that he is not smart enough to really understand; to be able to see in the distance the outlines of a system of world control, but to never really make out its features or get close enough to it." '

Yes and when Joaquin starts talking that 'they're stupid and we're smart stuff' he loses my attention, Also all this 3GW 4GW stuff and his assertion that he could 'prove' it all if he had the resources ... or maybe his methods are NP complete? ... he steps over my bullshit line.

When he sticks with the more nearly empirical, though, his *opinons* are interesting.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 30 2014 12:01 utc | 167

@160- James sorry I missed your original post. Interesting comments from Richard. I thought it noteworthy that this appeared right about when the Saker published the interview between NR and Ukranian commanders, thus furthering the bad nazi narrative that everyone can agree on.

Posted by: Nana2007 | Oct 30 2014 14:46 utc | 168

@144 Yes, and maybe it will be the Australia elections in 2024 when the legendary Ukrainian offensive happens? This prophecy starts to resemble the "world revolution" that, according to Marx, was just about to happen in mid-19th century. And then, according to bolsheviks, just about to happen after the October revolution and then for most of the 20th century. But we can wait, this at least gives us some hope that the fascist regime will eventually... etc etc

@140 Dear Rufus, I'm so terribly sorry I can't answer to each of your countless monologues but I'm far too young to be a couch revolutionary on pension like most of you guys here and can't spend the whole day crafting geopolitical prophecies and social analyses that are forgotten the next day they're written. Unfortunately, I'm still at the stage of harsh struggle for survival in the capitalist-dominated world that mercilessly forces me to actually do some work for most of the day!

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 30 2014 16:10 utc | 169

@Ulster
But, but, but...
If there is no offensive the West-Ukies are just kept standing in pig shit, aren't they?
http://venik4.livejournal.com/73250.html

Posted by: acrimonious | Oct 30 2014 16:40 utc | 170

@161 demian.. i was using the poker analogy for both sides.. i can't tell if it is a bluff or the real thing on either side of the conflict.. it might be either.. i am only pointing out that this is how i think it works in war as it does in poker.

that was a fascinating example you gave using the matrix -which i have heard is a fantastic show that some friends keep telling me i have to watch.. i liked that and it makes sense as well.

@162-163 oui.. thanks for the ongoing comments on the mh17 controversy.

@167 nana. no problem! i thought it was a good article, but reading the commentator richard at the end summed up my general feelings on it. those conversations between the different sides is extremely interesting for the things they agree about.

Posted by: james | Oct 30 2014 17:01 utc | 171

rufus magister at 149 posted a link to the VotS commentary on Bezler's and Mozgovoi's videoconferences with the UAF...

Well, the junta is not pleased:

Revolt in territorial battalions, panic in Kiev

According to verified information, from Police HQ on Bogomolets street #10 - Ministry of Internal Affairs is in real panic. Operational information was received that some territorial battalions are planning to unite and negotiate with the forces of the so-called DPR-LPR for joint armed march on Kiev. As a minimum, expect inaction of the forces from DPR-LPR during the campaign of the battalions.

Representatives from combat battalions believe that the government was hijacked by the oligarchs who robbed the people and the country, under the guise of conducting ATO, creating an armed confrontation within the country.

The Minister is clearly furious, subordinates are in a panic. The entire Security Service is on its feet with all the 'capabilities'. Operational detachments were dispatched to identify and behead the "protest movement". The mood is resolute, the goal is liquidation. But it is not clear who will execute the order...

So the oligarchs and fascists want to "identify and behead" (literally?) soldiers who are not just seeing the light but thinking about turning their guns around? If they don’t watch out they might just end up forcing the soldiers to act in self-defense, precipitating the very rebellion they fear. And much sooner than I’d thought it might be possible…

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 30 2014 18:58 utc | 172

@161 demian.. i thought about your question some more and in thinking about, i mostly think it was the ukraine side that would be bluffing, although russia can respond by bluff as well.. hard to know..

@171 vintage red.. thanks for that. it makes a lot of sense.. the intolerant of any different viewpoint are typically intolerant to reason as well.. those soldiers who were speaking candidly must be careful of the fanatical oligarch and fascist morons only capable of extreme narrow thinking..

Posted by: james | Oct 30 2014 19:03 utc | 173

@171 But you realize that anyone can write stories like that on their Facebook or VK? And people actually do fantasize on both sides, all the time. People have been copying these notoriously unreliable hearsay on this blog for almost a year and most of it never happened. I don't understand how presumably adult people can trustingly copy such fable, get all excited about upcoming revolution, breakthrough, offensive, campaign, pogrom or whatever, see that it was a fake... and copy another fake once again. GIGO applies. Is it a part of etiquette of this group to continuously make false predictions or I don't get something?

P.S. did you notice that I have never cited any of the countless pro-Ukrainian sources posting similar fables on the web? Can we collectively agree to rely on more verifiable sources - official organisations (like OSCE), public media or at least YT videos, instead of hordes of anonymous blogs translating other anonymous blogs in Russian or Ukrainian?

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 30 2014 19:19 utc | 174

@168

Dear Rufus, I'm so terribly sorry I can't answer to each of your countless monologues but I'm far too young to be a couch revolutionary on pension like most of you guys here and can't spend the whole day crafting geopolitical prophecies and social analyses that are forgotten the next day they're written. Unfortunately, I'm still at the stage of harsh struggle for survival in the capitalist-dominated world that mercilessly forces me to actually do some work for most of the day!

On pension? How positively socialist of you! Come to the United States, fabled land of capitalist domination of the world, where such uncompetitive nonsense is deservedly suffering the death of a thousand cuts! Experience the joys of lifelong student debt! Thrill at the prospect of the never-ending hunt for affordable housing and healthcare! Look forward to working till you die--assuming you’re lucky enough to find work, that is! Watch as the trillion$ that could ensure decent life for all goes to Wall Street, the Pentagon and wacky imperialist hijinx--even supporting fascist coups in Kiev!

It’s so merciless we’re just giddy…

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 30 2014 19:22 utc | 175

171

Interesting, the crazy facists in ukraine now fight internally, I thought the war against the east was what would group them together.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 30 2014 19:24 utc | 176

@175 Why not move to Russia then? You seem to be supporting The Great Satan with your hardly earned taxes otherwise.

Posted by: Ulster | Oct 30 2014 19:51 utc | 177

#176 I thought the war against the east was what would group them together.

Actually it did for about 5 months. Putin's patience is working out. Just let them simmer in the stew they made and let time take its course. I think it is very encouraging that the fascist parties did so poorly in these last elections. It looks like a good number of people in Central and even Western Ukraine are sick and tired of this war.

If a new government is formed I think they would have a mandate to purge the fascist elements from the state ministries that they gained after the March coup. The big question will be whether they have the courage to attempt such a purge. For sure, Right Sector and the Svoboda Party would react. It might even mean moving units of the Ukrainian Army from the east to the west. At this point, I suppose, it might also mean will the new Ukrainian regime have the courage to stand up to pressure from the US -- it seems that the CIA is entrenched in Kiev and they might not like it if the fascists elements were purged.

Posted by: ToivoS | Oct 30 2014 20:40 utc | 178

Toivos

They voted in right wing extremists, same people that have waged the war past months, the election is a clear sign it wont be any peace. There is no taking out the fascists out of Ukraine regime today imo, its like taking out the nazi of Nazi Germany. It cant be done.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 30 2014 20:57 utc | 179

@177:

Love it or leave it, eh? If I had a penny for each time I've heard that old line I'd be one of the 1%. This isn't about taking an easy way out, it's about changing the world. And we all have to change it where we are. As Che put it:

"I envy you. You North Americans are very lucky. You are fighting the most important fight of all - you live in the heart of the beast."

I'm not deserting my post.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 30 2014 21:47 utc | 180

Volunteer Prokhorov on Russian Spring (rusvesna.su)

"Generally, intelligence dill seriously believes that the brigade Brain closing flank Siverskoye Donets, will begin soon cut Debaltsevsky ledge and grab Artemivs'k. At the same time waiting for a coordinated strike forces Bezlera. In general, simultaneous attack Gorlivka-Artemivs'k and Pervomais'k-Artemivs'k. Himself debaltsevsky boiler will strip a militia of Enakieve. That's why now dill aktivnichaet towards Gorlovki - trying to thwart this attack."

It appears that alarm bells are going off over the deterioration of of the Ukies' northern front, enough to push their thinking in a strategically defensive direction. If they committed to attacking south from Avdeevka, there would be nothing left in the tank for the contingency they're worried about.

Posted by: Thirdeye | Oct 30 2014 22:04 utc | 181

To Ulster at 169 --

Another dodge. You ask questions, but you're too important for the answers. You have plenty of time to make loose accusations, no time for their refutation. It must be your immaturity.

Again, you're running up your tab...

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 30 2014 22:07 utc | 182

and a ps to my 182

I work for a living too. It might help if you stuck to the facts and dropped the ad hominum attacks.

But what would have anything to say then, I wonder?

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 30 2014 22:14 utc | 183

@Thirdeye #181:

If you post a quote from something, you should include a link to where you got it from. I looked for that report by Prokhorov at rusvesna.su but couldn't find it.

@ALL:

In case anyone was wondering, "dill" in that quote is a machine translation of "ukrop" (укроп). Ukrop is one of the names that Russians use to refer to Ukrainians, the reason being that both the Russian words for Ukrainian and dill weed begin with "ukr".

Posted by: Demian | Oct 30 2014 23:10 utc | 184

Current forecast is 70% probability of a major, multi-directional attack against Donetsk November 2. http://www.novorosinform.org/news/id/13568 IMHO it would be reckless because of some potentially very bad (for the Ukies) situations developing on the front between Gorlovka and Lugansk, and near Volnovakha. If Volnovakha falls, the Ukies' situation north of Mariupol would become very difficult. We also don't know what surprises NAF might have in store for the concentrated attack forces. I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

Posted by: Thirdeye | Nov 1 2014 5:48 utc | 185

@180 Not very good excuse. And quoting a dead mercenary doesn't make it any better. If you can't even control your life, what authority you have to teach Ukrainians or Russians who are in much worse situation?

Posted by: Ulster | Nov 1 2014 9:31 utc | 186

« previous page

The comments to this entry are closed.