IMHO, it is more about the political than military realities. Poroshenko seems likely to get a plurality, but not a majority tomorrow. Lyashko & the Radicals, the likely #2 finisher, are campaigning under the slogan that they’ll get the Crimea back. Popular Front has fielded nearly a doz. “volunteer batttalion commanders” as candidates.
Ill-advised military, but well-played politically, to protect the right flank. And then when it fails, well, we’ll see who gets to sort the sheep from the goats, who sabotaged the offensive and who are the “heroes.”
And chet380 at #2 — and it’s a diversion from the economy too, a multi-purpose crisis.

Posted by: rufus magister | Oct 25 2014 20:20 utc | 4

Talk about slinging shit at the wall to see what will stick, these neocons sure throw. Everywhere that their fingerprints are, it’s the civilian population who take the brunt and suffer the most. But who really cares, as long as the bragging rights and 15 seconds of fame are in the works. Sacrifice Ukraine, who cares how many perish? What kind of barbarians have the U.S. bred and allowed to call the shots on the world stage?

Posted by: Norman | Oct 25 2014 20:31 utc | 6

The recent scenes from Kiev of Nazis marching in the streets, flares and chains and racist slogans and all, are a reminder of what Naziism means. With its repression, urge towards genocide, its longing for war, its scapegoating, its headlong move towards self-destruction – is a frightening reminder of what can happen when the specter of fascism is allowed to rise from its well deserved tomb.
Ukraine is heading towards a state where this small, violent minority can take over and spark a war with Russia. Like Naziism before it, it has been fostered by the West. First as tragedy, then as farce.
The US as a whole has now fully rejected the lessons of the 1930s and 1940s. Despite even that Communism cannot be used as an excuse. This is naked Imperialism doing its work under the banner of “promoting democracy and tolerance”.
This cannot go on as it is. There will be a clash, and we should all pray that it doesn’t become one of nuclear arms.

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 25 2014 21:12 utc | 8

Election would be 100% only anti-russian groups.
On war, the coming weather months ahead would NOT benefit rebels, thats for sure add that to the coming offensive by the regime and it could be over..

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 25 2014 21:17 utc | 10

OT, but I’ve seen lately more and more people referring in the media refer to the Iraq War death toll as “100,000”.
I think this comes some what from Wikileaks very limited count from the Iraq War documents (I have heard Assange use the 100,000 number), and the site Iraq Body count which uses only media reports of deaths. Even worse, Iraq Body Count is actually and yet people continue, even citing that, say 100,000 because they refer to “civilians”.
Both of these are obviously prone to great undercounts because they rely on the US military, and the US media. Obviously, the US military has reasons not only to under report, but like all crimes, it only includes scenes they were present at or involved in. The media counts of course are low because the not all faltalities show up in the news or are discovered by reporters, just as crime stats are always lower because of unreported crimes.
The Lancent’s count, of 1,000,000, made using the latest scientific methods and polling, is certainly far closer. This is what should be used by those looking to put a number on the violent nightmare that US hubris and greed brought to Iraq.

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 25 2014 21:34 utc | 12

I find it very hard to accept that the Ukraine regime will initiate an offensive against the Donbas republic in November just after they suffered a major defeat in August. During WWII the most powerful army in the world, the Wehrmacht, never initiated an offensive that late in the year. They always began in the summer. The two great offensives that saw the German armies defeated early in the war (Moscow, the first winter and Stalingrad, the second) followed spring offensives that petered out when winter came. The Soviets counterattacked in the late fall and winter.
Poroshenko must be under tremendous pressure to reverse his last summer’s defeat but even with that pressure he (and the Ukrainian high command) cannot be stupid enough to start an offensive in early November. There is one thing that Russia can supply to the Donbas militias and that is the equipment to survive in winter war. They will be in defensive positions and if anything was learned the Battle of Moscow it is very difficult to supply front line offensive operations with sufficient clothing and shelter.
In general I have a lot of respect for Saker, but I do think he is way off on this prediction. Unless the people in Washington who are pushing this conflict are even more clueless than they have proved so far.

Posted by: ToivoS | Oct 25 2014 22:44 utc | 14

@2 It might not be a distraction as much as a means of weakening the street. The Kiev regime gave the Brownshirts guns, military experience, and promises, and much of the old regular Ukraine army has been taken out of commission. The CIA affiliated regime probably lacks the resources and popularity to pull off a night of the long knives, but they still need to get rid of them.
Much like the Saudis funding various militants groups, they want to use an excuse to get the more hot headed individuals to leave. If they don’t leave soon, the Russians and the NAF will lock down the border. The Kiev rump state will be more accessible to Europe which would lead to an exporting of terrorism into Europe against groups who will be deemed traitors. My guess is the saner elements have recognized NATO isn’t coming which means there is no German regular army available to protect the regime, so they need to get rid of their own thugs and will try to get the Russians to do it for them.

Posted by: NotTimothyGeithner | Oct 25 2014 23:06 utc | 16

But b you are assuming they are rational, they are not. The neo-cons live in their ‘bubble of reality and hubris’ which, at best, has only a tenuous link to any objective facts. In the neo-con mindset, going to war with Russia in winter makes perfect sense.
One thing is that many of them actually believe their own lies and propaganda. For example I saw an interview with Condalissa Rice recently and she was banging on about the EU doesn’t need Russian oil and gas because they could access the “bountiful riches of American energy resources”. The fact that, despite the oil and gas ‘fracking’ boom, the US is still a massive oil/gas importer seems to have escaped her, but I’ll bet she actually believed what she said.
In a true technical sense these people are mentally ill. So to expect any rational decision making by them is a waste of time. I sometimes play ‘thought experiments’, trying to come up with some new absurdity that they might do…and I am often right at predicting their behaviour, and the more absurd the idea I come up with the more likely they will do it.
I know that it hard for people like b (and nearly all the commentators here) to try to think in a non-rational way, but to really try to understand and predict neo-con’s behaviour you have to put that rationality and facts stuff aside at times, because it is certainly not a factor in their decision making.

Posted by: Lisa Formally OldSkeptic | Oct 25 2014 23:20 utc | 18

@Lisa #17:
Yes, the neocons are psychos, but I don’t think they control Kiev when it comes to military matters. The CIA and Pentagon do that, and I believe there are few neocons there. (But then there was Paul Wolfowitz…)
The rebels (not just the Saker) are afraid that Kiev is going to start a new offensive, but they are not saying that that is because of US pressure.
As for Condi’s “bountiful riches of American energy resources”: spoken like a true evangelical nut job.
@Wayoutwest #14:
Since Strelkov supports Putin, by your logic, Strelkov supports the oligarchs. (Why do people capitalize that word?)

Posted by: Demian | Oct 25 2014 23:36 utc | 20

@15- Your scenario seems the most likely one if an offensive really is in the offing. This would suggest Poroshenko might have seen the light and has ceased to be the US stooge.
Alternatively I wouldn’t discount a night of the long knives- Victoria Nuland paid Kiev a visit recently and I can’t imagiine the state department walking away from their 5 billion plus investment at this point. But who the hell knows.

Posted by: Nana2007 | Oct 26 2014 0:32 utc | 22

@ Demian, 16:

I’m surprised that this Anglophone news outlet is treating this RT documentary so neutrally. Did it not get the memo…?

Tried the link and got a 404. Recently in the “Waiting for Jack Frost” discussion I posted on how the western corporate media self-censors; I suspect that this was one of the rare slips in which a “off-message” (non-Russophobe) story briefly got published, but quickly got killed. I tried quick searches for it elsewhere (including on RT) but found nothing–do you know of another working link to it?

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 26 2014 0:53 utc | 24

Naturally those ever so clever neocons/Lwow superheroes/Kyiv geniuses do not imagine that maybe, just maybe (having destroyed great swathes of infrastructure in DPR and LPR) someone might seek to interrupt reverse gas flows or truncate western bound gas pipelines through Ukraine. What’s that wintry word? Ah, yes: Brrrrrr

Posted by: Cortes | Oct 26 2014 1:05 utc | 26

@Lisa #20:
I stand corrected. I guess the basic error I made was forgetting that the top brass are political and not military in nature.
@Vintage Red #23:
LOL. I wonder if the author of that article has gotten her pink slip yet.
Google cache of story about RT doc on MH17
By the way, is Vintage Red anything like Deep Red?

Posted by: Demian | Oct 26 2014 1:47 utc | 28

Re: Labels, like neo-con.
They are convenient, but inaccurate. The simple fact is that US policy even before it was the US has been a strategy of conquer-and-rule, dominate-and-subjugate, starting with the Native Americans. It worked, for a while.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 26 2014 3:50 utc | 30

Russian Spring
10/26/2014-01:08
Situation overview from 1st Inter-Brigade of South-East:
From the evening and until midnight the punitive troops proceeded bombarding Donetsk districts Kievskiy and Kuybishevskiy by “Grad” rocket systems. District Petrovskiy and settlement Spartak were also hit. During the day, as reported by the mayor’s office, the situation turned calm. Ignited clashes were confined to territory around the airport.
Gorlovka, clashes continued on fringes of the city; sides resorted to heavy weapons.
Mar`inka, west of Donetsk, Ukrainian territory, clashes resumed yesterday tonight. Same reported from area of Novomikhaylovka, south-west of Donetsk, also Ukrainian territory.
From Lugansk, significant clashes were reported in Schast’ye: nazis’ positions were attacked by mortars and “Grad” systems fire. So far, Results so far are unknown.
Situations in area of “Bakhmutka” in area of settlement Smeloye remains unchanged.
Russian Spring
10/26/2014-00:53
Message from combatant Prokhorov:
“No one had broken the ring to outpost 32 despite upbeat announcements. Today they were let go, they all, via a specially organized passage.
The Ukrainian Command was advised. Few minutes after the paratroopers of 80th brigade advanced from their positions the Ukrainian artillery lashed at them. To shield them, Ukrainians were struck back. The paratroopers were inflicted several “300th” (wounded); they had to turn back to the outpost.
Russian Spring
10/25/2014-19:31
Intelligence of the army of Donetsk Republic:
According to intelligence data, between October 28-30 the troops of Kiev junta plan a treacherous offensive on Donetsk and Lugansk Republics. The offense main targets are Donetsk and Mariupol`.
Bandera forces of these two groups of Ukrainian military would attack from crossing directions to isolate combatants defending Donetsk, completing encirclement of the city in Ilovaysk.
By simultaneous attack in direction of Debal`tsevo – Uspenka it is expected to split the armies of Donetsk and Lugans Republics and prevent from further communication.
In addition, by attacking in directions Schast`ye-Biryukovo and Starognatovka-Ul`yanovskoe, it is planned to reach the Russia border and establish control over it.
The Command of Donetsk and Lugansk Republics is aware of opponent’s plans and have reacted accordingly.

Posted by: Fete | Oct 26 2014 4:45 utc | 32

OT – just a note on an NYT article on ISIS captives
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/26/world/middleeast/horror-before-the-beheadings-what-isis-hostages-endured-in-syria.html?_r=0
Key points:
States that some of the hostages were essentially suffering from Stockholm Syndrome, converting to Islam and taking new names, with their captors intending to have them participate in a jihadist training camp.
Key details of the article came from an ISIS source.
Initially no ransom was asked (why were they holding them). ISIS told families not to contact authorities (since when do militants not want either money or attention for kidnappings, since when do they contact families directly rather than governments?).
Sergey Gorbunov was the first prisoner executed – as a warning to other states to pay ransoms (his supposed execution was never made public and there seems to be no mention of him on the internet after appearing in a video warning he would be killed) apparently ISIS showed the execution footage to the prisoners not the public or their governments.
Some weird things there.

Posted by: Bran | Oct 26 2014 4:49 utc | 34

Look like the Nazi stratgegy at the Battle of the Bulge…..

Posted by: Jack Sparrow | Oct 26 2014 5:03 utc | 36

jack@29
The Big Picture sometimes obscures what is happening on the ground so I understand your missing these important facts.
I have yet to see any reference to the People’s Republics in Putin’s or any other Russian writings, they are always called by the region names or Novorussia, correct me if I am wrong. This is a subtle but telling omission.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Oct 26 2014 5:52 utc | 38

Just read that many facist parties did good in the election, one came #2 in the election. Lets see how western MSM spin this!

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 26 2014 8:03 utc | 40

Washington long ago learned the dark art of silencing truth with defamation. Washington used defamation to overthrow Iran’s elected leader, Mossadegh in 1953, to overthrow Congo’s prime minister Patrice Lumumba in 1960, to overthrow Guatemala’s President Arbenz in 1954, to overthrow Venezuela’s President Hugo Chevez in 2002, a coup that was cancelled by the Venezuelan people and military who threw out Washington’s stooge replacement and reinstalled Chavez, to overthrow Ukraine’s elected President Yanukovych in 2013, to overthrow Honduras President Manuel Zelaya in 2009 , to overthrow in 2013 Mohamed Morsi, president of the first democratically elected government in Egypt’s history, to overthrow Gaddafi in Libya, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, in ongoing efforts to overthrow Assad in Syria and the government of Iran, and in failed attempts to overthrow Indonesia’s Sukarno, Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam, and Castro in Cuba.
http://en.ria.ru/authors/20141025/194585344/Washington-Is-Defaming-Putin.html

Posted by: ALAN | Oct 26 2014 9:16 utc | 42

Putin lashes out at US, West for destabilizing world
Thank you President Putin for addressing the subjects you mentioned.

Posted by: really | Oct 26 2014 11:14 utc | 44

Question: Is the CIA Running a Defamation Campaign Against Russia?
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics_media_watch/2014/10/25/12-06-35pm/cia_running_defamation_campaign_against_putin

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 26 2014 13:09 utc | 46

wayoutwest – looks like a new infestation of the “concern” trolls. They are out in force at The Saker, feigning concern for the people of the Regions, portraying themselves as “true patriots”.
This very much reminds me of the zio infestations, whenever the topic is I/P. One common version is the would-be palestinian “sympathizer” who goes on to bash the solidarity activists and/or BDS for being an inadequate tools with too little of a success.
Or, even more germane, the bashers of Snowden and/or Assange “outing” them as secret agents of the cia, nsa or whatever. Typically these types also love to pile on greenwald for this or that reason, as a ‘stooge”.
Concern trolling has an important role in the information propaganda. Their job is to show up in comment sections and either derail discussions over some moot point, or precipitate a spitball fight which then discourages more serious and knowledgeable posters, or mange to provoke otherwise good commenters into intemperate outbursts, which will then haunt them.
Oh, I am sure people here know a troll when they see one – apologies for preaching to the choir – no one in b’s comment sections seems naive in the ways of internet discussions and flame-outs. Still, never hurts to make it a matter of record – again.

Posted by: Merlin2 | Oct 26 2014 15:57 utc | 48

Putin is absolutely right, in his speech at Valdai, to link the far-right elements in Kiev with the Islamic radicals operating in Syria and elsewhere, and correct again to draw the link between America’s amoral support for the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan with where we are today. Putin describes recent world history as it is. This is as opposed to the US Administration, which have a perverted version of history that not even leading US intellectuals can agree with anymore (we all recall Mearshimer’s piece on the Ukraine).
People like WayOutWest, who come an show such dear care for Novorussia only when it can be used to somehow smear Russia as “capitalist” and do the familiar DonkeyTale contortions which try to make Russia – a relatively peaceful, (re)developing power that seeks stability with the irrational and ultra-violent USA. Of course it is dishonest concern trolling in the same way that those who declared Syria “weak” for not launching attacks on Israel after Israel bombed what turned out to be chicken coops.
We should not fall for this phony concern trolling when forming our views of what happens between Russia and Novorussia as allies. And make no mistake, they are allies. To suggest that Putin is “scared” of them is preposterous. Putin is making them act rationally and in a way which prevents the situation from getting more out of control. It would be an improvement if Washington could do the same with their Nazi proxies in Kiev. And anyway, as Demian rightfully points out, Putin is popular among the Novorussians – even among those Putin supposedly “sacked”.
Such ridiculous claims, especially coming from someone who constantly spins the threat of ISIS (a sign that he is either misinformed or a propagandist pushing an agenda), are not to be taken seriously.
Of course the *real* puppets of the oligarchs are to be found in Kiev, Washington, and London. Putin. put in place by the Russian people and supported by them broadly, has (popularly) put the oligarchs in their place – something that will never happen way out West, where the oligarchs choose the presidents.

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 26 2014 17:40 utc | 50

Putin is absolutely right to link the Kiev regime’s Nazi allies and ISIS. They are the same phenomenon – far-right movements supported by the US deep state.

A unilateral diktat and imposing one’s own models produces the opposite result. Instead of settling conflicts it leads to their escalation, instead of sovereign and stable states we see the growing spread of chaos, and instead of democracy there is support for a very dubious public ranging from open neo-fascists to Islamic radicals.
Why do they support such people? They do this because they decide to use them as instruments along the way in achieving their goals but then burn their fingers and recoil. I never cease to be amazed by the way that our partners just keep stepping on the same rake, as we say here in Russia, that is to say, make the same mistake over and over.
They once sponsored Islamic extremist movements to fight the Soviet Union. Those groups got their battle experience in Afghanistan and later gave birth to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The West if not supported, at least closed its eyes, and, I would say, gave information, political and financial support to international terrorists’ invasion of Russia (we have not forgotten this) and the Central Asian region’s countries. Only after horrific terrorist attacks were committed on US soil itself did the United States wake up to the common threat of terrorism. Let me remind you that we were the first country to support the American people back then, the first to react as friends and partners to the terrible tragedy of September 11.

Putin deals with reality. The US administration deals with phony and self-serving illusions.

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 26 2014 17:51 utc | 52

The difference between Russian and the US behavior on the world stage shouldn’t really need to be spelled out as it is so obvious. To speak of “Russian and American imperialism” in the same breath … it just doesn’t pass the sniff test.
Especially considering we watch the increasingly long list of US sponsored coups, overthrows, sponsored insurgencies, and outright aggressions since the fall of the Soviet Union.
It’s a favorite tactic of those phony leftists like you can find over at Lousy Louie’s Proyect’s, and, increasingly often, here at MoA.

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 26 2014 18:14 utc | 54

seems like all pro america parties is going to win big, no wonder with the war on the east.
http://rt.com/news/199476-ukraine-parliamentary-elections-results/

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 26 2014 18:44 utc | 56

The Pentagon will be ready.
Stripes, Oct 25
Officials break ground on hospital to replace Landstuhl

RHINE ORDNANCE BARRACKS, Germany — After more than a year of delays, American and German officials heaved the first shovels of dirt Friday to mark the symbolic start of construction on a nearly billion-dollar U.S. military hospital here.
Expected to open in 2022, the new facility will replace the Army’s aging Landstuhl Regional Medical Center and the Air Force’s medical clinic at Ramstein Air Base, both of which were built in the 1950s and cost millions of dollars a year to maintain.
Work at the new hospital site began in earnest in February after the U.S. military and its German counterparts laid out plans to mitigate the project’s environmental impact, allaying the concerns of environmental groups whose lawsuits had stalled the project.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 26 2014 19:39 utc | 58

@guest77 #48:
It is worth noting that our new defender of Novorossiyans made his appearance in these hallowed halls by informing us that Iran is running death squads inside Iraq.
Eloquent observations about Russia and socialism. Russia has done a considerably better job of Vergangenheitsbewältigung than Germany. If Germans had truly come to terms with their past, they would understand that, by allowing themselves to be occupied by the Empire, they have no moral superiority over their Nazi grandparents.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 26 2014 20:34 utc | 60

per RT:
Poroshenko Bloc leading in Ukraine elections, 7 parties to enter Rada – exit polls
bloc–percent
Poroshenko–23
Yatsenuk–21
Saduvuy–14
Opposition–7
Radical–6
Svoboda–6
Timoshenko–5
top three are pro-EU

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 26 2014 21:15 utc | 62

@57 – TL;DR The USSR is regarded quite highly in much of the world, and for good reason.
___ I wrote the following, I just wanted to make it smaller so as not to take up too much space___

It is not just my opinion that the successors to the Soviets have little Vergangenheitsbewältigung to deal with.
Consider the view of the USSR in the third world, where it was instrumental in defeating imperialism during the liberation movements of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s. There are still, in many countries from Africa to Europe to Asia, and South America, thriving Communist parties and socialist movements that look at the USSR as a positive role-model. And to those countries, many of them ruined by capitalism and imperialism, with much of their populations reduced to absolute poverty and their countries stripped of all sovereignty – they are correct.
Consider the view of the USSR inside some of the former Soviet Union. As a society, a majority feel that the post-war Soviet Union was the best of recent times. The comparisons of the Soviet Union to the 1990s – the betrayal, the theft, the shock therapy – all made the Soviet times look like a paradise in comparison. It is only now that Russian’s have a state they can be proud of, a state that is growing with vastly improved social conditions – a condition that was made possible by Russia reversing or watering down the so-called “reforms” of the 1990s.
The USSR under Stalin suffered greatly, but these were the Soviet people suffering. The cult of personality and the repression – all acknowledged by Khruschev and reversed – showed that the USSR was capable of change. But much of the “horrors” did not happen as presented in the West. Much is crude propaganda – numbers that claim that Stalin “killed” “20-100 million” people are simply ridiculous and crass. Meant to present Stalin not even as Hitler’s equal in horror, but as worse than him. Considering the help offered Hitler by the west, considering that the ideology of Communism is THE threat to capitalism while Naziism is capitalism’s thick-necked enforcer: it is easy to see why this *must* be the narrative. “Hitler was bad” goes the story “but he was only trying to defeat the greater evil”. Recall the Ukrainian mayor declaring how Hitler “liberated” the Ukraine – such filth which would have earned the speaker a punch in the face – has gone mainstream.
The USSR was not a perfect country any more than the USA. Many of the commitments in its constitution were not lived up to. But then, how long did it take the USA to live up to the words “All men are created equal…”? All countries are works in progress, all constitutions are documents that define the ambitions of countries and are made true only by hard work. And this applied to the Soviet Union as well. Unfortunately, the USSR never knew a day of peace, and not because it didn’t seek peace. It was the victim – in it’s brief 70 years – of a foreign invasion of 18 countries and a civil war, constant sabotage and propaganda, the world’s most vicious military campaign leading to the destruction of the country comparable (in the words of JFK) equivalent to everything east of Chicago in the US being completely destroyed, and finally a long, bitter Cold War in which the world’s greatest military and economic power, linking with the Nazi remnants and immoral forces all over the world, pushed the USSR – poor and attempting to rebuild, and committed to never facing another such invasion – to an arms race and to the economic breaking point.
And whats more, the break up of the USSR, though and awful, embarrasing tragedy – especially considering what followed – deserve praise for achieving a relatively peaceful break up. Save Chechnya, an internal civil war inside Russia which produced the casualties of one of the smaller US aggressions in Central America, the break up of a country joined together for 1000 years was astonishingly bloodless. Compare it to the bloody break up of the Portuguese or the British Empires. Compare it to the French wars in Algeria and Vietnam. The actual break up, though it happend through the machinations of traitors and for the most part against the will of the population, is one of the greatest feats of peace and statesmanship in world history. There were of course states that wanted out, but a close look at the politcs of states such as the Baltics show large support for opposition parties, left wing groups. Even in those countries, their is considerable nostalgia for the Soviet period. This applies to Eastern Europe as well – the left parties in Germany are still strongest in former East Germany, the country we constantly hear about in terms of being “Stasi State” (considering that the country was a socialist state which had just been under Nazi rule and threatened constantly by sabotage and spying, the Stast makes much more sense).
No, it is only in the USA, in far-right enclaves in South America, and amongst the European elite that people buy into the “Soviet Union is comparable to Nazi Germany” pack of lies. A pack of lies based on historical distortions and outright lies of those master “Big Liars” the Nazis themselves.
The fact is that, when the history is written 300 years from now (should we survive till then, and should our history), it will show the USSR as the progressive power that was instrumental in ending the European Empires. A country that sparked and lead a movement for independent development and international justice. The country that lead a genuine revolution that was snuffed out by the bloodiest counter-revolution ever waged in world-history (a counter-revolution which continues today).
I believe that depending how vicious and bloody the USA’s decline is, the USSR will be historically rehabilitated and considered a martyr for the best aspirations of humanity, if not its realization.

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 26 2014 21:57 utc | 64

The Nazis attacked when they did (bad weather over Christmastime 1944), because the Allies had overwhelming air superiority.

Posted by: lysias | Oct 26 2014 22:21 utc | 66

I normally don’t like this author, but this is brilliant. I know some here disagree with the concept of blowback, but I think he is getting at something deeper – the post-war transformation of the USA:

….conflict for conflict’s sake became the operational ethos in Vietnam and Laos and Cambodia and Africa and South America and Central America and especially in the Middle East for decades, and in the process of this multi-generational permanent state of conflict the weapons manufacturers became wealthier and wealthier, and more and more powerful…
….so, when you sit in the darkness of your personal night and wonder what happened to your country, to your aspirations and dreams, to the potholed road you drive every day to the job that has no chance of letting you retire in comfort, to your barren savings account, when you turn on your television and see paid shills shriek about how and why you’re about to die while your neighbor’s kid comes home in a flag-draped box and you have to ask again where your black suit is so you can go properly dressed to yet another funeral…
…remember that history exists, and actions have consequences, and this event is tied to that event is tied to the other event in a tapestry of escalating cascading fallout, which is called “blowback,” which always carries a dear price unless you’re getting paid for it, which is why you think very hard before making a lethal national decision, because every lethal decision always comes knocking at your door someday…

Posted by: guest77 | Oct 26 2014 22:36 utc | 68

@59 definitely not a good idea to vote pro-Russia. Which probably accounts for the 40% turnout.

Posted by: dh | Oct 26 2014 22:39 utc | 70

@guest77 #65:
Yeah, I thought that was right on the mark, too. (I came to it through Antiwar.com.) An inspired piece of writing.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 26 2014 23:12 utc | 72

Poetic and true except for calling it blowback. It isn’t really blowback when intended consequences have been factored into the plot from the beginning.
The chaos that results from the “fracturing of Nation States” has been stated clearly in the Yinon Plan.

Posted by: fast freddy | Oct 26 2014 23:24 utc | 74

OT but, congratulations to Dilma Rouseff and Brazil on her reelection. Her opponent has graciously conceded defeat so a color revolution over a ‘fraudulent’ election is out of the picture. Not knowing much about Brazilian politics, I can’t really say if a Neves victory would really have been a serious setback for the BRICS. It might be that as a state, Brazil would not want to burn its trade ties with Russia and China and perhaps Neves would have understood that and acted accordingly. But better to be on the safe side. Dilma’s speech at the UN last year calling the US out on mass surveillance earned her a special place for me.

Posted by: Lysander | Oct 27 2014 0:09 utc | 76

She sided with Putin twice, apparently.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 27 2014 0:26 utc | 78

The blowback is also local, wherever the US overthrows a government and then has to fight the “insurgents” who resist outside interference. That’s why the Pentagon needs a new billion-dollar hospital in Germany. In that vein I’ve always been partial to Mike Hastie. “One day while I was in a bunker in Vietnam, a sniper round went over my head. The person who fired that weapon was not a terrorist, a rebel, an extremist, or a so-called insurgent. The Vietnamese individual who tried to kill me was a citizen of Vietnam, who did not want me in his country. This truth escapes millions.” –Mike Hastie, U.S. Army Medic, Vietnam 1970-71

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 27 2014 0:47 utc | 80

Is General Winter on Russia’s side?
Telegraph, Oct 26

For a few months each year, Russian leaders have always been able to call upon a formidable military commander who saw off Napoleon and Hitler. General Winter, the most dangerous and annually reliable soldier in Russia’s army, specialises in using snow-drifts, ice-clad roads and bone-chilling temperatures to freeze invading armies in their tracks. Not once has he let Russia down.
Very soon, President Vladimir Putin will be hoping to give General Winter a new task. Instead of halting an invasion, his mission will be to join Russia’s struggle against Ukraine and the West. . .

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 27 2014 1:15 utc | 82

@Demian, 26:
Thank you for the cached link—I had read of Peter Haisenko’s revelations before, but it’s interesting to see how they very briefly surfaced in the corporate media, only to be scuttled immediately.
When I learn of false flag and other atrocity operations like this, part of me knows “there’s a war on”—carry on, people die, most innocent and often unaware even of what’s happening (as with those on MH17): “Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living.” Then there’s another part of me whose blood quietly boils, imagining war crimes tribunals…

By the way, is Vintage Red anything like Deep Red?

No, but Deep Red sounds like a wild movie!
An old friend who knows my politics, my tastes in wine and my perspective on deep history once called me a Vintage Red. When I first discovered this site and got the Brecht lyric references, I figured that might be a good nom-du-bar.
[raising my glass]
In vino veritas!

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 27 2014 2:29 utc | 84

Russian Spring
10/27/2014-00:31
Summary from fronts by combatant Prokhorov
No deliveries today to besieged Ukrainian outpost 32, Bakhmutka (near settlement Sleloye, Lugansk). A group of military engineers (sappers), their carriers, armor shielding them – Cossacks burned these all…
The sappers had losses. A supplies convoy did not even move ahead. Despite Poroshenko’s personal order, the besieged did not get anything – drink marsh water filtered through gas-masks. The number of fallen reached 14. This is without lost by unblocking forces.
Besides outpost 32, a discotheque was going and in Nikishino, and in Debal`tsevo. The evening one has just started in Debal`tsevo. Ukrainians anticipate a storm of Debal`tsevo in three days.
Russian Spring
10/26/2014-21:42
Situation overview from 1st Inter-Brigade of South-East:
No significant bombardment was detected in Donetsk today. Instead, increased activity of Saboteur-Reconnaissance Groups was reported; these tried to infiltrate the city and the territory of airport. The work of unmanned aircraft over the capital of Donetsk Republic was also reported.
The Ukrainian artillery pacified in Avdeevka. However, reinforcement in personnel and hardware was arriving.
During night a violent fight with punitive troops of battalion “Aidar” erupted in Schast`ye, Lugansk. Several nazis were taken prisoners.
Situation intensified in direction of Mariupol`. Shelling of Ukrainian fortifications was reported.

Posted by: Fete | Oct 27 2014 4:06 utc | 86

Wow is b off on this one!
This will be Kiev’s revenge for Stalingrad, supplied to the hilt with USUK weaponry, their soldiers being trained in winter warfare by USUKIL in Poland, and USIL satellites overhead.
USIL has no doubt established HUMINT and SIGINT by now, and you can expect USEU to throw a new sanctions attack any moment. Think Battle of the Bulge, only this time, the Nazis win.

Posted by: ChipNikh | Oct 27 2014 6:50 utc | 88

@ChipNikh, 85:
Even if the worst happened, a “Battle of the Bulge, only this time, the Nazis win”, I remember back in the late Spring reading statements from militia fighters that if the junta overran Donetsk and Lugansk entirely, resistance would continue as urban guerrilla warfare, and that it would be protracted (Northern Ireland was cited as an example of what to expect). This was meant as a grim worst case scenario, but mainly to illustrate the determination never to surrender to fascism.
Western intelligence and sanctions would have to be cranked up an order of magnitude in effectiveness to begin to register. Both the US and RF have satellites overhead, nothing has changed in orbit. As far as “supplied to the hilt with USUK weaponry” I’ve not seen direct evidence of that–more of supplying Poland, Romania, Croatia, etc., with NATO weaponry so that these countries can send their old Warsaw Pact-era weapons to the Ukraine, thus preserving plausible deniability.
The Nazis better watch out what they wish for. The People’s Republics have already shown they can deliver revenge piping hot; I’m sure they can dish it out biting cold as well…

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 27 2014 8:46 utc | 90

I’m also very perplexed at the ‘new offensive’ chatter or predictions. I can’t see it. Kiev ‘lost’ once and it is out of ressources (or whatever) and while some factions (fascists, etc.) may want more war, there is also the general population who is against it and may take *very badly* to continuation, this point is vital. The US obviously wants to keep Poroshenko (for now anyway), Poroshenko has been running a fine line trying to keep all the allowed sides on board, either under orders to do so, and/or for his own interests. The election results are being spun as Pro-West Pro-Peace, a real ‘victory.’ Russia of course does not want to be dragged in more than they are already, as has been stated ad nauseam. The EU, if it could defend its own interests, would also wish an end to hostilities. What is difficult to understand – for me anyway – is the structure and role of Svoboda/Pravy Sektor (not as pol parties but as groups of ppl) and where the nexus of their control lies. On the one hand, they represent an anti-Poroshenko force and hold him hostage to some degree, which is a natural, traditional role for such groups (who tend to remain in opposition, stir up trouble, etc.) On the other hand….such groups can go overboard, or be pushed to do so instantly, and therein lies their threat/hold. Who controls them? – All this independently of Jack Frost.

Posted by: Noirette | Oct 27 2014 13:18 utc | 92

Noirette
It was ‘over’ in Syria too… except not.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 27 2014 14:35 utc | 94

Don@92 – it looks like there is a head-on-head race going 0n between Poroschenk and Yatsenyuk. Both their parties are approx. at 21.5%. That might still change as not even 50% of the votes seem to have been counted, so that might still change again. But it might really get tight for Poroschenko, its even possible that Yats migth be ahead if the trend continues.

Posted by: Fran | Oct 27 2014 15:47 utc | 96

No russian distress call behind sub hunt (it’s in Swedish).
This after the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, citing “several persons with knowledge about the ongoing search operation”, revealed that russian radio coms were intercepted prior to the search for a “foreign vessel”.
Won’t change the cold-war rhetoric, the masses still believe that Russia violated Sweden’s territorial waters, proof or no proof, and is ever increasing its sphere of influence in the Baltic sea and beyond.

Posted by: never mind | Oct 27 2014 15:49 utc | 98

Radio coms can be spoofed.

Posted by: lysias | Oct 27 2014 16:21 utc | 100