Included in yesterdays assessment of the Ukrainian loss of the war and the coming ceasefire was this caveat:
Obama may still decide to double down and that destroying Ukraine -like Afghanistan, Libya and Syria- by prolonging the conflict is in U.S. “interests”.
Pat Lang believes that Obama will take the escalation path:
Will the United States let the world “off the hook” by accepting this outcome? Perhaps it will not. The lure of the Children’s Crusader vision of a future devoid of schoolyard bullies may prove too strong to ignore. NATO exercizes are planned. Speeches have been made. Grand posturing has taken place. Obama wills it! pl
That “Obama wills it” may be the reason for the confusion about a Ukrainian presidential statement today on a ceasefire agreement that came after Poroshenko had had a phonecall with Putin:
Mr. Poroshenko’s office first issued and then retracted a statement saying that the two had agreed to a “lasting cease-fire.” A spokesman for Mr. Poroshenko’s office said the initial statement, posted on the presidential website, went too far in describing the results of a telephone call between the two leaders, and that the call had not produced a formal agreement.
The statement, “The conversation resulted in an agreement on XXX in the Donbas.” actual changed twice from XXX being first “lasting ceasefire” then “ceasefire” then “ceasefire regime”. After the Poroshenko call Putin went public with a 7 point ceasefire plan which seems to have been the one Poroshenko had agreed to. But some “intervention”, I assume from the U.S., took place to change Poroshenko’s statement of a “lasting ceasefire”.
The main U.S. puppet, scientology prime minister “Yaz” Yatsenyuk, is still throwing verbal bombs even though Ukraine has run out of significant military means:
“Putin’s real plan is the destruction of Ukraine and the resumption of the U.S.S.R.,” Mr. Yatsenyuk was quoted as saying. He said “the best plan to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine” would be if “Russia withdraws their regular troops, mercenaries and terrorists from Ukrainian territory — then peace will be reinstated in Ukraine.”
… and pink ponies will fly by.
To the delight of U.S. hardliners France has “postponed” the delivery of the two helicopter carrier of the Mistral type to Russia. The Russians will be happy about that. Such carriers are useful in small conflicts against minor enemies but Russia has now again to prepare for larger ones. The deal (once given to Sarkozy for his help in the 2008 Georgia conflict) included several ships some of them to be build in Russia. As part of the deal a shipyard in Russia has been modernized for the project and that important work has been finished. Russia can now (again) build such ships on its own.
If the two ships from France get not finally delivered Russia will demand back some €600 million already paid and a €1.2 billion contractual penalty. Without the Russia deal France may also have to close its shipyard in Saint-Nazaire. To hold back the ships is a terrible deal for France but president Hollande’s poll rating is already so bad that the further drop in the polls for kissing Obama’s ass will likely be irrelevant.
If Obama, as Pat Lang believes, wants to keep the conflict brewing we will see more destruction, more dead people and larger land losses for the current Ukraine. The end state will not change. Ukraine will become a bankrupt finlandized federation, not join the EU and not join NATO. The EU will lose a lot of business with Russia and take even longer to get out of the second great depression. China will win a lot. Not only in commerce but also because the U.S. will be busy to herd the NATO cats and to fight the non-existing Russian “threat”. This will give China probably a decade of less pressure in south Asia. All for the genius of Obama and his Children’s Crusader.