Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 11, 2014

Ukraine: As Economic War Escalates, Fighting May Resume Soon

The ceasefire of Minsk between the Ukrainian coup-government and the federalists of east Ukraine was something both sides needed.

The Ukrainian army was on the verge of completely  loosing it. It was temporarily defeated and needed to rearm and reorganize. While the federalist insurgents were successful and probably able to continue their fight for a few days their forces were overstretched and needed to consolidate.

But many on the insurgent side did not like the ceasefire. It did not give them the federal autonomy they demanded. The neo-nazi "national-guard" battalions on the other side also criticized the ceasefire. They want the total destruction of their enemy and ethnic cleansing of all Russia-affine Ukrainians.

Russia had pressed for the ceasefire to avoid further sanctions. It was an offer to the "western" side to step back from the cliff of an economic war. Obama and NATO tried to sabotage the ceasefire through false claims of a Russian invasion and other propaganda. But the Ukrainian president had to ignore the pressure from Washington and Brussels or he would have lost another city, Mariupol, to the insurgents.

The main Russian reason to support the ceasefire, to hold back sanctions, has now vanished. Three days ago the EU, against the will of several of its members, decided on new sanctions on Russia:

The European Union adopted new sanctions against Moscow on Monday despite the leaders of Russia and Ukraine vowing to uphold a truce aimed at halting a devastating five-month war.
...
In Brussels, the EU formally approved fresh sanctions against Russia but said they would not come into force for a few more days, effectively delaying the measures to see if the current truce will hold.

The truce held and despite that facts and its earlier claims the EU today announced that the new sanctions will be implemented immediately:

The European Union has agreed to impose further sanctions on Russia on Friday over its role in the Ukraine crisis, diplomats say.

The move is aimed at maintaining pressure on Russia, the sources said.

Russia says it is preparing a response "commensurate with the economic losses" caused by the EU sanctions.

This is another catastrophic and escalating EU move with regards to Ukraine and Russia. This turns the conflict into an economic war between the EU and Russia in which no side can win. Only the United States and China will profit from it. 

Additonally Poland had the crazy idea of supplying gas which it purchases from Russia to Ukraine which is not willing or able to pay for direct deliveries from Russia. This is a breach of contract as the deliveries from Russia to Poland are not allowed to be resold to other Russian gas customers. Russia allegedly responded by lowering the volume of gas it supplies to Poland and Poland immediately folded and stopped the reverse gas flow to Ukraine:

Russia’s OAO Gazprom limited natural gas flows to Poland, preventing the European Union member state from supplying Ukraine via so-called reverse flows.

Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA, or PGNiG, got 20 to 24 percent less fuel than it ordered from Gazprom Export over the past two days and is compensating flows with alternative supply, the company said today in an e-mailed statement.

Poland halted gas supply to Ukraine at 3 p.m. Warsaw time today, according to Ukraine’s UkrTransGaz.

We can be not sure that this is the whole story though. Gazprom says it provides all the gas Poland ordered through its pipelines but hints that Ukraine, where those pipelines cross, may be the party which is taking the gas:

Russia has denied that its state-run gas giant Gazprom has been limiting flows to Poland.

"Reports by news agencies on the reduction of volumes of gas supplies by Gazprom to Poland's PGNiG are incorrect,” Itar-Tass reported Gazprom spokesman Sergey Kupriyanov as saying. “The same volume of gas as in previous days – 23 million cubic meters a day – is being supplied to Poland now."

Before Gazprom issued its statement, Uktransgaz’s Prokopiv blamed Russia for trying to “derail” the plan for Poland to supply Ukraine with “reverse” gas, while Ukraine refused to pay its debt to Gazprom and is currently cut off from Russian supplies, and accused Russia of limiting the supply of gas.
...
In August, Russia’s energy minister, Aleksandr Novak, warned that in the upcoming winter Ukraine may begin siphoning off Russian supplies intended for Europe if it fails to build up its reserves.

There is more conflicting news. The Ukrainian president Poroshenko claimed that most of the "Russian troops", which no one, including the OSCE observers in the area, has ever seen, have left Ukraine:

“Based on the latest information I have received from our intelligence services, 70 percent of the Russian troops have moved back across the border,” Poroshenko said. “This bolsters our hope that the peace initiatives enjoy good prospects.”

NATO, likely fearing that Poroshenko was again moving towards a peaceful solution, disputed the claim:

"The reported reduction of Russian troops from eastern Ukraine would be a good first step, but we have no information on this. The fact of the matter is there are still approximately 1,000 Russian troops in eastern Ukraine with substantial amounts of military equipment and approximately 20,000 troops on the Russian border with Ukraine," the NATO military officer said.

Push, push, push for war ...

But some parts of the "western" media are slowly waking up to the fact that not all is well with Ukraine and the "western" strategy. They note that Ukraine can not afford the IMF's 'Shock Therapy' and needs money without conditions which it will likely never pay back:

Absent this "bail-in" of foreign creditors, Ukraine will simply be taking on more debt that it lacks the capacity to service, risking a long-term compound debt spiral for the country and practically guaranteeing a wholesale default down the road -- and continuing political instability.

After months of ridiculing anyone who pointed to neo-nazis within Ukraine's regime and military forces as "Putin lover" reports about those neo-nazis now pop up in several "western" media.

Russia best reason to hold the insurgents in east Ukraine back from further fighting has vanished. The economic war is escalating no matter what Russia does or does not do. As the media have more time to look into the real issues in Ukraine the state of the sorry affair will become more clear and "western" public support for Ukraine will decline. This is a threat to "western" warmongering and to again escalate to fighting is the best method to suppress such news.

Hawks on both sides now have reason to restart the fighting. Expect the ceasefire to completely fail very soon.

Posted by b on September 11, 2014 at 17:47 UTC | Permalink

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Russian Spring

09/15/2014-20:29

Commentary form combatant Prokhorov.

Question: Donetsk airport

Prokhorov:


Ukrainians are encircled. Battalion “Dnepr” – 9 fallen, volunteer corps “Praviy Sector” and battalion “Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists” have lost killed/wounded about half of personnel, 93rd got a couple tens of “200th” (killed).
Pauses are due to insufficient ammo – all reserves were used up during night. And for skeptics – neither system has ever been outfitted by a full package. Less than ten tanks partially stocked and without refueling attacked 3 tens (30) combat vehicles of opponent.

Capitulation is negotiated in parallel.

As soon as reserves are replenished, the concert will go on (after 20 minutes)…

…Currently in Donetsk airport Ukrainians surpass the combatants in armored hardware 5 times, in personnel – 3 times.

Question: Perspectives to end the ceasefire

Prokhorov:


The junta pups are not quite ready for the offensive. Failed third mobilization and deficit of weapons are the reasons. At the moment the battle worthiness is merely being restored. I think of another week for Ukrainians to get fit.

Question: Meaning of regrouping of Ukrainian forces

Prokhorov:


Yes, they staff the units escaped hell of Transborder Curve and Ilovaysk with people and hardware - the latter being particularly difficult. Adjust interaction between units. Urgently repair hardware (since the beginning of ceasefire more than 90 units of armored hardware reanimated). Plus deploy second echelon in the rear – regions either recruit new territorial battalions or upgrade existing to regiments (800+ personnel plus armored hardware). Redeploy units from the Russia border, particularly from Crimea. The border with latter is vacant – just a couple of men. But they are assigned to pretend they are troops. Expect provocations soon.

Question: Ukrainians may draw as much cannon fodder as they want

Prokhorov:


Times have passed when quantity decided all. Would they find weapons for such glut of people?

Question: NATO help

Prokhorov:


Indeed the help comes from first days of September. So what? Nothing is heard about sound victories. Ukrainians forget fundamental thing – hardware itself does not fight – people do.

Posted by: Fete | Sep 16 2014 4:24 utc | 201

@198

Yes, Pepe is good, and so is Martin Hennecke - in a cold-blooded capitalist way - they both remind us that the world will go in, is going on - no matter the US/EU self-destruct.

@201

That's ... well it's never good news when people are slaughtered in war ... but it's is good that that the neo-Nazis of the Ukraine still seem unable to prevail.

Now ... if Russia could get some of those anti-aircraft missiles to Syria ... and if they Syrians' simple possession of them keeps Barack the Madman Obama from laying waste the country ...

Posted by: john francis lee | Sep 16 2014 5:04 utc | 202

I don't know what the US is now up to regarding the Ukraine. This story from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is more sympathetic to the separatists than anything I've seen in the New York Times, the Guardian, or the BBC:

Donetsk Separatist Leader Says Cease-Fire Signed To Combat 'Humanitarian Catastrophe'

This story is another indication that the USG might not push the Kiev junta to launch another offensive against Novorossia. But why wouldn't USG do that?

Posted by: Demian | Sep 16 2014 7:37 utc | 203

The Reality of a Multipolar World (2007)

The Benefits of A Multipolar World

Developing Countries Benefit from a Multipolar World

Although the world seems to be on fire due to the hegemon attempting to maintain its global economic monopoly at the barrel of a proxy gun and regime change by dropping bombs. There will be a rebirth of the global economy, once the destructive and bloody mayhem ceases.

A multipolar economy will be better for the 99%. Competition forces innovation, benefits domestic agendas, reduces war, etc.etc.

Its like the eruption of a volcano, after the eruption the surrounding area immediately begins to regenerate, with the benefit of all the new fertile soil that erupted from the volcanos cauldron. It will take time like Pepe Escobar said on RT's CrossTalk yesterday but with shrewed navigation of these troubling and violent times, the blood spilled because of the hegemon's ambitions of maintaining a global economic monopoly by force hopefully will not go in vain. Just hope the hegemon doesn't go nookular as the economic, political and military death throes set in.

Look to the east and the south for responsibilit, times are a changing.

Posted by: really | Sep 16 2014 8:49 utc | 204

@Demain 203:

This video sort of explains what’s happening, en passant.

The Purge is coming. Evgeny Fedorov

According to my interpretation of Fedorov, the entire Ukraine putsch is really about destabilizing Russia -- and it is in this light that events should be interpreted. (me, me, me!) The battle again, is between the AI and the EA supporters. According to him, the AI crowd, or fifth column, would like to run Russia under US hegemony as a part of the Empire, while the EA crowd wants true Russian sovereignty and a multi-polar world. He believes that conditions are rapidly ripening -- with the US abetting them -- for a showdown in which the EA’s will win out in a massive Russian state purge of the 5th col. US is betting the opposite, and has employed a new ambassador/destabilization expert to grow and manage the fifth column -- which largely controls the Russian media, by the way. (Historical odds: 1 in 3 for the west) Putin has just met with the entire Duma in Yalta and stared them down/warned them of the consequences of being traitors -- I’m sure he made himself clear as Stoli. Sort of a gunfight at the Ukie corral between west and east. Under the EA schema, the oligarchs must work under a more Soviet managed form of capitalism for the greater good, while under the AI schema, oligarchs function as focal points for Western control and harvesting of wealth. I have seen this concept several times before, and it resonates with me. It explains how these guys came from nowhere to run huge diversified concerns with no experience. Khodorkovsky is an example. Then, as with K, when the time is ripe and eyes are distracted, they sell out in a pre-arranged deal with the West, and enjoy the rest of their life owning football teams and other useless capitalist bric-a-brac.

Fedorov emphasizes that Russia is the wealthiest country in the world in terms of resources, ie real wealth, and once the 5th col is gone and central bank re-nationalized, industrialization will naturally boom to where it needs to be. He contrasts this with London, which is a massive skim operation. No arguments there.

Back to the Ukraine. As in a chess match, the US pushed aggressively forward in fomenting the putsch a year ahead of schedule due to pressure on dollar. Russia, playing defense, is using the opportunity to expose the fifth column, both in Russia and Ukieland. After the Russian purge, there will follow a vast Ukulele purge, thus achieving the pre-conditions for Eurasian reunion. In other words, both sides are still playing for the whole enchilada, and no one wants the beans that ooze out the side.

Employing this framing, neither country was interested in the Donbass as a breakaway statelet, per say. US used it to bait Russia to invade leading to another Afghanistan for it, which R wisely refused. R used it to prevent Ukie joining the EU and NATO. Round 2: Roles are almost reversed: R abandons Novorussia for the time being or freezes the conflict until purge is over, while US supports minor Donbass as Novorussia nationalism as a rallying cry for R fifth column ersatz nationalism to thwart the coming purge. Round three (according to Freytag's literary analysis of dramatic structure) of this drama may very well bring us the climax, although we may get a faux-climax pushing forward to another series of acts. Round four foresees the return of Colonel Strelkov, atop his white steed, cantering into Kiev.

Very intricate and complicated. At least that is how I see it. If I had time I would write the entire analysis up properly, with supporting evidence and better detail.

Throughout, Russia has been intently aware of its public image in the world, which while going down dramatically in the West, is rising equally dramatically in the non-aligned countries and China.

Meanwhile, Russia and China are moving full steam ahead on the multipolarity project, signing deals everywhere, and moving the altSWIFT/altIMF BRIC financial structure forward. 100 plus non-aligned countries are watching very carefully, as the bread will be tastier and buttered more thickly in the new kitchen. Needless to say, China keeps its nose out of other’s affairs, but wisely uses the opportunity of US distraction to relentlessly push the BRIC project ahead, as it did during the entire disastrous faux “War on Terror” Big Muddy 2.0 gambit. Russia and China make a great complementary team! The West is reeling from the one-two punch -- as it pivots one way, it gets sucker punched by the other fist, then as it pivots the other way...

Therefore, Syria represents another West gambit to draw Russia/Iran Asian block into direct conflict -- which they will wisely ignore in order to keep their eyes on the prize. That, I believe, is why they are intentionally underplaying this move.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar must be watched very closely throughout this battle. The long overdue Saudi succession battle should be interesting. China has long made goo-goo eyes at the hirsute House of Sauds. It should be kept in mind that oil and gas is a fungible commodity, and if its flow is blocked in one direction, it will naturally flow in another. The world is awash in gas, and there is enough oil left to fuel one more world economic boom before moving on to alternative sources. (Which is why I was so utterly dismissive of the peak-oil idiots -- who think if they read something it is true, and because they do not understand geo-politics are easily snookered by propaganda -- who infested this blog, and the entire liberal blogosphere, around 9 years ago. [I will be charitable and not name names.] Nevertheless, I stand vindicated. Recent drops in the price of crude prove that world pricing is largely a Western manipulated construct, as I have long known, having lived through $20 crude while working in the refining business during the 1st modern Russian destabilization. )

Should the two purges be successful, then Germany automatically falls like ripe fruit into its natural harmonious position of East/West neutrality, and Merkel will be ditched ignominiously. I believe there are many in Germany working sub rosa for this scenario, as a sort of Western fifth column. Germany will be much happier there, so it will no longer feel compelled to take its frustration aggressions out on the rest of Europe. (When did you stop beating your wife?)

Anyway, that’s all I have to say for today.

Posted by: Malooga | Sep 16 2014 10:59 utc | 205

Some weird news coming out that ukraine will some region a special-status but only for 3 years. What to make of this latest statements?

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 16 2014 11:51 utc | 206

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 16, 2014 7:51:49 AM | 206

Sounds like they solved it.

3 years would make sense, as obviously not just Donetsk and Luhansk will want special status - there will have to be a new constitution.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 16 2014 12:07 utc | 207

somebody

Why would 3 years make sense?

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 16 2014 12:21 utc | 208

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 16, 2014 8:21:09 AM | 208

Turns out they limited it to the areas "presently held by rebels".

Kyiv also seems to have started another offensive.

So this has not ended yet.

The 3 years make sense as the EU will not want to go through this experience again. So there needs to be an new Eastern Partnership framework - preferably involving Russia.

Next European parliament elections will be in 2019. Depending on the Scottish referendum the atmosphere will be very different.

But presumably the three years are cosmetic to make it possible for Kyiv parliamentarians to vote for the bill.

Kyiv still seems to have the need to get its people killed. I have no idea what it looks like on the ground - if they are sending the volunteer battalions or real soldiers.

Donetsk and Luhansk will be made to fight for their border. It is criminal futility.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 16 2014 12:45 utc | 209

@ Somebody & Anonymous 207 & 208
The law as passed by Poroshenko is a total capitulation to the 'Terrorists' ... for what exactly has 'Ukraine' fought and bled for till now will be the Ultra-Nationalists and Neo-Nazis refrain !

Ukraines Military is decimated and humiliated, its economy shattered, its treasury is empty and unable to even pay the interest on its debts, and it now has no gas nor coal (no coal means no electricity) to look forward to come winter and the 'West' isn't going to bail it out, no matter what soothing words are whispered in Yats ears by his handlers ...

The current Ukrainian government will almost certainly fall in the near future, as to what replaces it ?

The Empire doesn't really care about Ukraine itself in any case ... they have played Ukraine for complete fools and cannon fodder, just as they did Georgia in 2008.

Posted by: Outraged | Sep 16 2014 12:49 utc | 210

somebody

And on the 4th year, what will happen?

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 16 2014 12:50 utc | 211

outraged

Might be a capitulation if "terrorists" take this "deal" imo.

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 16 2014 13:21 utc | 212

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 16, 2014 8:50:43 AM | 211

3 more years to decide that. I don't see a continued EU / Russia confrontation, neither is interested in that. What is happening in Ukraine is complete and utter stupidity, practically lose, lose, lose.

1) It is clear "Ukraine" cannot win against Russia.
2) It is clear NATO will not intervene.
3) It is clear the IMF is not going to lend endlessly.
4) It is clear Ukraine needs Russian gas.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 16 2014 13:33 utc | 213

@ Anonymous 212
Whether the Eastern Ukrainians 'take' the deal or not maybe irrelevant ... the question is will the Ultra-Nationalists and Neo-Nazis tolerate Poroschenko capitulating to 'terrorists' (In their view), nullifying all their decrees, declarations and objectives immediately post and subsequent to their coup earlier this year ?

Expect we will see 'action' in Kiev to secure or overthrow within weeks, maybe even days, we should see the obvious signs very soon ... just as with revolutions, putchists often devour their own ...

In any case, accepted or not, either way, all good for eastern ukrainians compared to what their future held prior ...

Posted by: Outraged | Sep 16 2014 14:07 utc | 214

@ Somebody 213
Very true and to the point. The Putchists and the coup government, the Ultra-Nationalists and Neo-Nazis have been fed whispered 'promises' that have amounted to 'nothing' from the very beginning ... just as in Georgia ... they have been 'Had', totally 'Played' ... how will they react ?

It will only get much, much harder for Kiev moving forward ... electricity in Ukraine comes from the coal in the Donbass ... no coal = no electricity ... what will be the price to be 'paid' by Kiev for the coal whilst there is also No Gas from Russia ?

Posted by: Outraged | Sep 16 2014 14:16 utc | 215

Ukraines Capitulation Pleases No-one
The compromises Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has made to end the fighting in his country have taken shape, and they are dangerous to his political future. His increasingly nationalist electorate considers them little short of treachery.

Posted by: Outraged | Sep 16 2014 16:00 utc | 216

Wise words by rebel leader on the "deal".
http://presstv.com/detail/2014/09/16/378944/east-ukraine-snubs-new-kiev-law/

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 16 2014 16:12 utc | 217

Here's something you won't see mentioned in Western mass media. Poroshenko has replaced the young ethnic Hungarian governor of Transcarpathia with a businessman:

http://www.hungarianambiance.com/2014/09/ukrainian-president-petro-porosenko.html

Posted by: Jon Lester | Sep 16 2014 17:03 utc | 218

@ 214 outraged

Expect we will see 'action' in Kiev to secure or overthrow within weeks, maybe even days, we should see the obvious signs very soon ... just as with revolutions, putchists often devour their own ...


Demonstrations outside of Ukrainian Parliament are taking place. Both Privat Sector and Svoboda are there.
http://rt.com/news/188220-ukraine-rada-unrest-fire/

Ostensibly the protests were taking place to force the parliament to finally pass the so-called ‘lustration bill’, ‘aimed at “purging power” and carrying out checks to decide whether citizens can hold government posts.’. The practical effect of this bill will ban ‘the closest allies of Ukraine’s deposed President Yanukovich from politics‘.
The bill has been passed. A continuation of the protests and/or incitement to violence by the neo-Nazis could be precursor to Maidan 2.0.

Posted by: pantaraxia | Sep 16 2014 18:14 utc | 219

@219

It seems only RT is reporting the kiev story. All the other msm "news" channels are not reporting on it...figures...out of sight out of mind.

Posted by: really | Sep 16 2014 18:35 utc | 220

Folks, a few late thoughts on this topic.

Still trending pessimistic on the ceasefire holding, Donetsk & esp. airport seem fully engaged.

To Malooga at 205 -- as always, a lot to think about there. Agreed, it's all about encircling and destabilizing Russia. But it's also about keeping the "Eurotrash" in line -- here, not disparaging the Europeans, only their leaders and their non-democracitic "Union." And more arms spending, more Nato expansion.

To later posters >209 -- too many and too astute to mention by name too late at night.

I take the point, the Ukrainians have been played. A second Maidan putsch is quite possible. West may see them as useful muscle, to be discarded when no longer needed. But they will not take their dismissal lying down.

Don't forget, German Junkers and industrialists thought Herr Hitler quite a useful man, but one they did not necessarily intend to stick with.

Econ. & polit. logic would suggest it's time for Kiev to cut its loses, but the muscle may not agree, adroit strongarm tactics could keep Pravyi Sektor, et al., in power.

Granted, they seem better at strongarm than adroit, but given the proper stage management, they might pull it off.

Interesting to see -- will the parliamentary elections scheduled actually occur? Will Poroshenko still be in charge then, or after?

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 17 2014 3:25 utc | 221

Fellow barflies --

An interesting item for the Oceania Saker. A personal account of dealing with Putin. We've been dissecting the politician, here's a glimpse at the man.

It's too late for me to read it all closely, but some good anecdotal material about her dealings with Putin, some very astute questions at the end.

Putin

Here's the opening lines: "As the Ukraine situation has worsened, unconscionable misinformation and hype is being poured on Russia and Vladimir Putin.

"Journalists and pundits must scour the Internet and thesauruses to come up with fiendish new epithets to describe both.

"Wherever I make presentations across America, the first question ominously asked during Q&A is always, 'What about Putin?'”

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 17 2014 3:37 utc | 222

@rufus 221: Agree with everything you say.

@rufus 222: A very good piece of writing, BUT: That post about Putin is lifted verbatim from the Russia: Other Points of view Blog (www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/‎), without attribution. Call me an old fogey again, but I regard proper attribution as essential internet protocol -- for many reasons beside the obvious ethical one. If you are connected with the Saker brand, you should point this out to someone higher up and have this oversight rectified.

Posted by: Malooga | Sep 17 2014 4:27 utc | 223

A HREF="http://rusvesna.su/news/1410888195/">Russian Spring

09/16/2014-21:23

Remark from Strelkov:


Under auspices of ceasefire and as result of the order forbidding combatants to open fire, 24 tanks of Ukrainian Military Force moved today into Donetsk airport through combatants’ positions.

Reaction of combatant Prokhorov:


That is right. I was saying since September 5 Ukrainians presence in the airport increased three times (including armored hardware)

Russian Spring

09/16/2014-21:17

Message from commander of brigade “Prizrak” (“Spectre”) Aleksey Mozgovoy:


… Today’s announcement from Mr. Plotnitskiy (the head of Lugansk Republic) of conceding Poroshenko law (bestowing a special political status to parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions currently under combatants’ governance) is nothing less than a white flag (capitulation)…

… Compromises like this do not serve our struggle against the fascism and the nourishing it oligarchy. It is a way to create all conditions for quiet and docile dissolution of Novorossia. Contrary to fact that Novirossia is being for us a real chance of creating a genuine people’s state with developed regional economy…

…Second tough question in present-day history is declaring of would be an unitary military command. Just to remind, the military council has not ever been convened!

… Instituting a common administration and appointing a chief commander without consent of all field commanders is nothing more but a work of overreaching. In order to impede the honest and log time due military council. Indeed, the struggle has just begun! Many combatants are depressed and loose hope watching this bog. Do not you dare! Do not you dare to give up on yourself and the idea too early! Cunning are those in offices, but truth is ours!

Comment: The campaign map is resumed by “Kot Ivanov” successor “Dragon First”:
Dragon First

Posted by: Fete | Sep 17 2014 4:35 utc | 224

Malooga @ 223.

I certainly take your point, I'll take it up with AE sometime tomorrow.

I, um, think there might be a similar lack of clarity about a P.C. Roberts pc. over there (link is below). I know Roberts has a no. of regular outlets, I see some duplication, is it kinda like on-line self-syndication? In any case, re-posts should acknowledge where the item originally appeared.

If you like, give it the same treatment. Give it a look in any case, I think you might like it. He's maybe 1/2 right (high for many commentators, low for PCR).

We might have system-wide (i.e., Internet-wide) problem with incessant cross postings. Minds more learned than mine in the arcana of the internet will have to assess that.

9/11 after 13 years

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 17 2014 4:51 utc | 225

Malooga @ 222

Business over, back to the fun. Listening to the news in the background, the critical component of the cease-fire seems to be, IMHO, the recent vote on "federalization." I only "quote" it because no time to look for details on what Rump Rada passed, it may or may not real (and with all things Maidan, I tend towards "unreal"). Likely to be a "Potemkin village," pretty exterior covers squalid reality. A ploy to deceive, delay, perhaps entrap.

Fete's @224 suggests of unreality as well, with reinforcement of the airport. Second part suggests rank-and-file dissatisfaction with the deal.

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 17 2014 5:01 utc | 226

@205 malooga.. thanks for the video 'the purge is coming'.. fascinating and i think there is too much in that video for me to comment on it properly. anyone worth gaining an insight into what i also believe is at work could do no better then to watch that video..

what does this mean for the temporary ceasefire? i am not sure. i think it will resume, but i don't know when.. here is an article from kiev post that articulates a particular viewpoint on the agreement porkosenko has offered.. it could be described as porkosenkos resignation paper in a way as it will probably end in this or worse for him..

i go back to the video malooga shared @205.. watch it if you haven't already. riveting..

Posted by: james | Sep 17 2014 5:41 utc | 227

Fairness and Accuracy Disclosure: The Saker has significant reservations about Fedorov's message. (see his blog for details.) IMHO - only time will tell. Russian politics are newish to me and I don't read Russian, so I must often go with my informed intuition on what I believe LIKELY accurate in a changing world where people message for innumerable reasons.

Re: The unreality of the ceasefire: perhaps we are waiting for the other coup, whoops! I meant shoe to drop.

Paul Craig Roberts -- have been reading him for over 10 years now. I remember first hearing about him when a friend lent me a book of his at the Boston Social Forum (good recruiting for HRW, AI, Greenpeace, and other selective enforcement tools of empire) summer '04. (What a summer up at the Isle of Shoals with the ghosts of Captain John Smith and Pocahontas...) Anyway, I was blown away by the quality of his writing, and his ability to get at the heart of the truth succinctly (something I obviously need to work on). He was also the person who first taught me the value of reading people who are different from you and those who disagree with you. Although there is little I disagree with that he says, I can't imagine anyone more different (except that he is an absolute cat lover as I!)

Posted by: Malooga | Sep 17 2014 7:22 utc | 228

Doesnt this video show the idiocy with the western sanctions?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbs6eMxa5ds
...it always come back right at you! :)

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 17 2014 7:42 utc | 229

@Malooga #228:

Fedorov does strike me as a bit of a paranoid extremist. For example, he took offense at the Russian press calling the Ukie army an "army", and took such terminology as evidence that the Russian press is engaged in fifth column propaganda. According to him, since the present Ukie regime came into power through a coup, today's Ukrainian army should not be called an army. But even Novorossian Web sites, which are much more unequivocal in their support of the DPR and LPR than the Russian press, call it an army.

So, we have at least three cat lovers here. (I am another one.)

Posted by: Demian | Sep 17 2014 7:45 utc | 230

@228 malooga and 230 demian - well, i have some reservations on federov too, but the video is still riveting for someone who is a part of the russian parliament openly stating all this.. his use of terms 'invasion' and etc. and why the 5th column has a different way of describing it, make me think he is giving the 5th column too much credit for being on the wrong side of things.. he essentially makes a split between those who know and those who deceive in order to suggest 'the purge is coming' and while there is some truth his ideas, they are more radical and polarized then i imagine ordinary russian politicians have.. that said, i am not russian and know very little about russia, so it is just speculation on my part. i take everything with a grain of salt anyway, so while i find his viewpoint succinct, i don't know how far removed it is from putin and company. i imagine it is somewhat removed, but not too much removed..

i grew up with cats and dogs, but my wife is allergic to cats.. we love our dog... i think cat people are different then dog people. i am more of a dog person, although i am not uncomfortable around cats.. i like their independence, but i don't like how they will kill birds needlessly.. i guess it is in there nature to do this, but i still don't like it!

Posted by: james | Sep 17 2014 15:44 utc | 231

beginning of federov's purge?

Posted by: james | Sep 17 2014 16:31 utc | 232

to malooga at 228

"get at the heart of the truth succinctly" -- when you get right down to it, who doesn't need to do that better? I know I do....

"other coup to drop" -- you had it right the first time, I fear.

to James at 231 -- we keep two of our three inside. The eldest, "the Duke," will whine until he gets to hunt on his estate. He hasn't delivered us a "prize" to us since Ms. M. declined to play with the live bird he gave, was most annoyed when she let it go a no. of yrs. ago."

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 17 2014 23:01 utc | 233

malooga @ 205

assuming this thread is still alive...
london as a skim operation. west controls the money. nato/us military the enforcers. reminds me of mafia, which reminds me of us nuremberg claim that the nazi government was a criminal organization. which is precisely what i think the us gov't has morphed into.

ukr: round 3... ??? reminds me of the sidney harris cartoon: 'then a miracle happens'

middle game progression.

please take the time and flesh it out if you can. from what i've read i have trouble believing that western ukies will ever willingly accept russia winning. as in the us people want more the chance to buy lottery tickets and maybe get rich than to think, understand and act. eu is the pot of gold, and i can't envision a neutral or pro-russian ukr without some suppression, and who needs those headaches.

Posted by: bolasete | Sep 18 2014 2:28 utc | 234

Russian Spring

09/16/2014-22:33

Comment: Ministry of Defense, Russia, in reference to general Philip Breedlove’s remark that NATO has now understanding of Russia’s hybrid war tactics (troops do not wear insignia), concluded:


The (NATO) project “Gladio” did not work in Ukraine: private military contractors and a few European fascists do not weigh against the combatants of Donbass and volunteers from Russia, who are mostly military professionals. The fighters of Ukrainian nationalists fit even less…

Possibly, the supreme allied commander prepare environment for emergence of NATO service men in Ukraine without insignia.


Russian Spring

09/16/2014-22:52

Strelkov’s commentary by Anatoliy El`-Myurid:


First. Donetsk, according to his (Strelkov) data, is calm. Who is “general-lieutenant Korsun` ” (the newly appointed Chief Commander of Novorossia (joint) Military Force) fighting along combatants since April, he is unaware. Therefore, he asks field commanders to ignore intrigues of senior commanders and focus on new battles which are inevitable. As soon as the combat restarts, all discord and pulling a blanket on oneself will become insignificant.

Second. According to his data, Moscow is not tied to above “discord”. There may be some people which the “underwrites” align to, but overall, no decision cardinally changing situation exists. We speak here about personal initiative of some commanders of some detachments, which are not large enough to bear proud name of “Joint Military Force”.

Third. The discord will not bear any influence on established combatant units logistics.


Posted by: Fete | Sep 18 2014 3:46 utc | 235

@bolasete:
Will write more tomorrow.

Posted by: Malooga | Sep 18 2014 7:18 utc | 236

EU rolls in real sanctions
https://twitter.com/search?q=http%3A%2F%2Fen.ria.ru%2Fbusiness%2F20140918%2F193052405%2FEuropean-Parliament-Calls-For-Excluding-Russia-From-SWIFT-System.html

This type of sanctions will change the situation definately.

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 18 2014 12:52 utc | 237

^ Russia's exclusion from SWIFT wont happen, same as ban of RU gas/oil wont happen either. However SWIFT ban would be wonderful long-term for the World, as Russia with Iran and BRICS would very swiftly launch competing non-politized banking system. Want to buy oil/gas from two of the biggest suppliers in the World? Join up the alternative as well, and 90% of the World would.

Posted by: Harry | Sep 18 2014 15:31 utc | 238

Harry

The EU just voted for it, why wouldnt it happen?

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 18 2014 15:42 utc | 239

The European Parliament “calls for the EU to consider excluding Russia from… the Swift system,” " "the final decision rests with the individual EU countries."

Its just a hot air, not a ban.

Posted by: Harry | Sep 18 2014 15:44 utc | 240

Harry

Well in Iran it wasnt just "hot air". These people are idiots, they dont know what they are doing.

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 18 2014 16:03 utc | 241

Pigoshenko is in town (US)
http://rt.com/news/188808-poroshenko-usa-nato-lethal/

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 18 2014 18:31 utc | 242

to bolasete @ 234 --

Thread still seems to be going strong, problem has not really been fully clarified by events yet.

I'm pessimistic about the ceasefire, I share your view that the West. Ukr. Banderaists are not going allow Poroshenko et. al to make any real concessions, and will reactly badly and perhaps successfully vs. what passes for the Urk. gov't.

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 18 2014 22:51 utc | 243

But wait -- just on my reg. visit to the Vineyard of the Saker, two important posts. Our Proprietor, "b," might have to open a new thread.

SitRep for 18 Sept., Novorossiya and the Ukraine. Can't tell your players w/o a program....

MH17 report, Union of Russian Engineers. A repost from Oceania Saker, btw. Sorry to say, no part in the trans., I've been busy elsewhere.

Like off to diner! Drink up...

Posted by: rufus magister | Sep 18 2014 23:42 utc | 244

Russian Spring

09/19/2014-02:17

Summary from combatant Yan:


In area of Zhdanovka (a new caldron south of cities Gorlovka, Yenakiyevo) the sides clash by heavy armor.

Clashes for Donetsk airport turned into maneuvering combat. Also, our reconnaissance registered presence of foreign equipment in the airport.


Russian Spring

09/19/2014-00:02

Summary from combatant Prokhorov:


Cossacks purged Ukrainians from Faschevka and Tsentral`niy – as close as 15 and 5 km to Debal`tsevo (second new caldron east of city Gorlovka).

In Uglegorsk (near Debal`tsevo) Cossacks battle the opponent at outer limits of the city. The Ukrainian artillery from Debal`tsevo tries to target the Cossacks. Hopefully they (the artillery) will be shut up soon.

In area of Pervomaysk (Lugansk) – long forgotten front – Cossacks’ artillery “truce” Ukrainian positions near settlement Troitskoye (under city Popasnaya)


Posted by: Fete | Sep 19 2014 3:47 utc | 245

Russian Spring

09/20/2014-01:49

Summary from combatant Prokhorov:


In Donetsk airport it was hellish hell.

In Mariupol` both sides pursue the truce by artillery - reportedly, in area of Sartani (a settlement next to Mariupol`) already.

Clashes are reported in city Zhdanovka and at an outpost near Rozovka (Ukrainian). Zhdanovka has been Ukrainian for long time, and is fairly well fortified. Their fire is well tuned.

Siege of Gorlovka was lifted.


Russian Spring

09/19/2014-16:45

Summary from combatant Prokhorov:


Overall, the night passed as usual. Ukrainian reserves and their rear in Kurakhovo (?) were targeted by “Grad” - quite successfully. Also “blanketed” were Ukrainian positions in settlement Peski (near Donetsk airport).

Until 3 a.m. intensive truce was observed in area Yenakiyevo-Zhdanovka (the latter is Ukrainian).

Clashes continue in South: skirmishes reported in areas of Starognatovka (?) and Granitnoye (near Telmanovo, Mariupol`).

Lugansk.

After sustaining losses, 22nd territorial battalion was sent for recuperation. To recall, the battalion arrived completely staffed – 423 men. Day before yesterday they were in Schast’e with “Aydar”, where were seriously pummeled.

Ukrainians do not always recall troops, but deploy new ones. Yesterday in attack on a column of opponent under Pervomaysk, 3 Cossacks of Pavel Dremov (a commander) had fallen…


Posted by: Fete | Sep 20 2014 4:32 utc | 246


Germany Considers Sending Troops to E. Ukraine


German daily Bild disclosed internal defense correspondence that the paratroopers in Seedorf bei Bremen are preparing for deployment in the Ukraine. The paper elaborated that a total of 200 German soldiers are awaiting congressional approval before departing for the region.

A German government source apparently told Reuters that the reason Germany was sending troops was to help guarantee the shakey ceasefire between Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels.


Uh-oh. Its Lebensraum and gas and oil all over again.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 5 2014 1:39 utc | 247

@jfl #247:

Better Germany than Poland. The OSCE is beginning to draw up the borders between Ukraine and Novorossia, and Russia is participating in that process, too.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 5 2014 2:00 utc | 248

Pretty sure US will not approve german or any other western troops in ukraine. Lets see if Germany dont give dam_n about that or not.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 5 2014 8:09 utc | 249

The Future of a Beijing-Moscow-Berlin Alliance


In the EU of this moment, the anti-Russian camp includes Great Britain, Sweden, Poland, Romania, and the Baltic nations. Italy and Hungary, on the other hand, can be counted in the pro-Russian camp, while a still unpredictable Germany is the key to whether the future will hold a new Iron Curtain or “Go East” mindset. For this, Ukraine remains the key. If it is successfully Finlandized (with significant autonomy for its regions), as Moscow has been proposing — a suggestion that is anathema to Washington — the Go-East path will remain open. If not, a BMB future will be a dicier proposition.

Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, Chapter 8


The chief importance of continental, as distinguished from overseas, imperialism lies in the fact that its concept of cohesive expansion does not allow for any geographic distance between the methods and institutions of colony and of nation, so that it did not require boomerang effects in order to make itself and all its consequences felt in Europe. Continental imperialism truly begins at home.

But ... whose empire will it be? Who will be the Emperor? or Empress?

Kenneth Grahame, The Origins of Totalitarianism


"There is nothing — absolute nothing — half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats."

Froggy and his American Cousin've been out messing around forever ... the light at the end of the tunnel is train comin' on down the track.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 6 2014 10:07 utc | 250

Fernando Flores on the Battle For Donetsk Airport:

The US was using this airport as a makeshift military base to house the operations of Death Squads. These Death Squads were going out at night and engaging in murders, kidnappings/abductions, rapes, assassinations, and sabotage.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 6 2014 21:48 utc | 251

couldn't follow the link

Posted by: jfl | Oct 7 2014 1:14 utc | 252

Sorry: Battle For Donetsk Airport

I wonder where Flores gets his information. Even the Novorossian (as opposed to Russian) media hardly talks about Ukie death squads, that I've noticed. His view is that using death squads is S.O.P. of the Americans in such situations.

Flores also offers another reason for why the Ukies were holding out in the airport that the Saker didn't consider. This is that because they were randomly shelling populated areas (they did not have any spotters), they were terrorizing the civilian population, as opposed to engaging the enemy, so they would not be treated as ordinary captured enemy soldiers by the NAF.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 7 2014 1:39 utc | 253

An American made a film about the sniper shootings: Maidan Massacre.

It won the Audience Award at the Siena Film Festival, where it premiered.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 7 2014 2:09 utc | 254

@253 demian.. thanks for the links. flores makes a lot of sense.. psychological warfare... your link @254 looks interesting too.. i will check it out.

Posted by: james | Oct 7 2014 4:53 utc | 255

Aha .. Joaquin Flores, not Fernando Flores ... who seems to be famous for suing Brittany Spears ,,, Thanks for the link, I'll have a look. meanwhile ...

German troops to Ukraine for the first time since the Second World War


[T]he government in Berlin is moving to deploy German troops to Ukraine for the first time since the Second World War.

On Friday, German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen informed the Defence Committee of the government's plans to massively expand German army (Bundeswehr) missions abroad. The current German training mission in Iraq is to be expanded, in addition to the operations in Ukraine.

According to a report in the Bild newspaper, the team concluded that at least 150 German soldiers were needed to keep the drones regularly in the air, plus 50 additional armed soldiers to protect the operation.

The possible deployment of German troops comes at a critical time. When it appeared a few weeks ago that Ukrainian armed forces were on the verge of defeat, President Petro Poroshenko negotiated a truce with the separatists. This truce has been violated on a daily basis.

German troops will not take a neutral position in war-torn eastern Ukraine. Along with the US, the German government was a driving force behind the coup in February to overthrow the government of President Viktor Yanukovych. Since then it has offered strong support to the regime in Kiev, which in turn relies on fascist forces. It comes as no surprise, therefore, that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin enthusiastically welcomed the German offer to deploy drones.

It would not be the first time that Germany has used the OSCE as a cover for its own military operations in Ukraine. In April, a group of 13 soldiers led by four German officers were accused of espionage activities by pro-Russian separatists. Germany claimed that the arrested soldiers were part of a civilian OSCE mission in the country, which the OSCE firmly denied.

In September, three German soldiers were involved in NATO maneuvers in Western Ukraine.

[Von der Leyen said] “We are, I believe, all aware of how urgently Germany responsibility is needed in this difficult, crisis-ridden world. That means we will also have to invest in it, and that costs money.”


... from Joaquin

At the time of publishing, the underground of the airport still contained KJ death squads, who refuse to surrender. Most of these are foreign nationals, working as mercenaries, and employed by the US.

I haven't seen it in print but I believe the beheadings of US and UK operatives in Syria/Iraq are probably part of the 'strategy of tension' by the CIA in its war against the American and the British populations, to get them to acquiesce to their southern front offensive.

The German Government is not even trying to justify its involvement. They're just doing it. Like the Americans, they've always been at war with Eurasia.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 7 2014 7:00 utc | 256

@jfl #256:

LOL. I wondered why I was suddenly finding it easy to spell Flores' first name, whereas I had had difficulty with that in the past.

I am an incurable Germanophile, so I believe that Russia and Germany are natural allies, their natural enemies being the perfidious maritime Anglophone powers.

If one is not to start having doubts about whether Putin might have sold out (слил) Novorossia, one basically has to assume that he is still reaching out to Germany.

Posted by: Demian | Oct 7 2014 8:14 utc | 257

I wonder if Putin is not worried about a German-Chinese partition of Russia.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 7 2014 23:29 utc | 258

This cartogram is a very interesting view of the world and of Eurasia especially ...

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/cartograms/population1024x512.png

Posted by: jfl | Oct 8 2014 0:02 utc | 259

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