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Ukraine: What Is The Situation?
The news from Ukraine is quite vague. It is not exactly clear to me who is gaining in the military field. While the Ukrainian military claims to have some successes it is also losing quite a lot of material and personal. At least ten Ukrainian soldiers, probably many more, were killed in an ambush yesterday. Add to that many pictures of destroyed tanks and APCs.
So what is really the military and political situation? Is there a reliable side or source for information on it?
Russian Spring
Comment: The Russia Ministry of Defense has analyzed the graphical material published by the Ukraine Security Service (SBU) on 30 of July, which supposedly “denies” the authenticity of space photographs by Russia that Ukrainian “BUK” batteries were present in the area of Boeing-777 catastrophe, and which “undeniably proves” shelling the Ukrainian territory by Russian forces:
The mandatory attributes of factual material are such that tie up satellites images to terrain as well as astronomic time of the shooting.
This is necessary to accurately determine a set of satellites over the place of shooting, which, in turn, allows for understanding of characteristics and capabilities of spacecrafts orbiting the Earth at predetermined trajectories.
We can responsibly say that according to Space Control System of Russian Federation, between 10:00 and 13:00 Moscow time on 12, 16, 17 and 18 of July, neither of Ukrainian satellites, “Sich-1” or “Sich-2”, flew over the depicted territory.
At the time marked on the images, an American surveillance satellite of “KeyHole” type was over the zone of catastrophe. Therefore, the imagery origin the Ukraine Security Service processed should not create any doubts.
The detail analysis of the images reveals following:
On first two slides Russian and Ukrainian snapshots are overall identical. However, an important note, the snapshot presented by the SBU was made several days later.
The time of the day marked on the slides 3 and 4 does not correspond to what is depicted. At 11 a.m., the Sun in the area is on south-east, shadows are cast to north-west. Therefore, the slides are not just of some other date, but made afternoon; the time shown is intentionally tampered.
Furthermore, the highlighted by SBU stretch of woodland bears distortions caused by a photo editor.
In addition, according to the weather forecast on July 17, the cloudiness in area of settlement Avdeevka was 70-80% at altitude about 2500 m, which is observed on the slide by Russia. The slide 4 made by SBU depicts clear, sunny weather.
Resolution of the slide 5 made by Russia was purposely degraded by SBU photo artists; details of relief blurred (the tillage). The original slide lacks the inaccuracies cited by SBU.
The picture on Ukrainian slide 7 is identical to that by Russia, except for one caveat. The picture was made 5 days after the Russian snapshot. What SBU attempted to emonstrate remains unclear.
Let turn to analysis of the SBU graphical material, which supposedly proves delivery of arms and military hardware from Russian side, as well as deployment mysterious subversive groups or shelling populated areas.
Some transport objects and their tracks are discernible on the presented by SBU fourteen images, which are not tied up to terrain, date or time. For example, some country roads are discernible on about half of these images, 2-7.
However, one would not find a road crossing Russia-Ukraine border. The SBU made assertions that tracks on the fields belong to Russian armored equipment does not sustain critique.
Based on quality of the material, it remains unclear the method used to identify tanks, armored carriers or trucks, as well as their ownership by the Russian Federation rather than Ukrainian border troops or military forces.
Similar situation is with Russian military hardware shown on the Ukrainian territory on images 11-13. It is again unclear which properties attribute the hardware to Russian Army. The territory in areas of settlements Marinovka, Kozhevnya and Grigor`evka, where the hardware was supposedly “discovered”, has been under Ukrainian control for long time.
Regarding “footprints” of launching “Grad” systems in area of village Grigor`evka, which is the Ukrainian territory and under Ukrainian control (!), shown on images 8-10, this is another “masterpiece” of Ukranian way of shifting blame from a sick head to a well one…
The SBU officers should instead impose tighter control over privately weaponized battalions of Kolomoysky, Lyashko, Yarosh and other leaders, which are acting on their own shelling Ukrainian settlements.
Posted by: Fete | Aug 3 2014 6:04 utc | 42
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