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Ukraine Lost A Battle – West Escalates With More Russia Sanctions
Throughout August the Ukrainian president and cabinet, likely following U.S. "advisers", pushed their army into a big attack on the insurgency held south east areas of the country. But the attack of bad equipped, half trained units ran into problems. Some of them reached their attack targets only to find themselves cut off from any resupply. Without ammunition, gas and food they were locked into place and easy targets for the insurgents artillery.
The attack was stretched too far. The "culmination point in the attack" Clausewitz wrote about was reached and crossed. The negative effects of the attack on its own troops became bigger then the positive effects and the government in Kiev, not recognizing the real situation, still pressed on. It now lost the initiative. The parts of the Ukrainian army not surrounded and caught up surrounded in "cauldrons" retreated to be reorganized.
Some of the "volunteer" territorial battalions are simply going home. There is even a revolt against the defense ministry.
By Aug. 27, the battalion had left the war zone and made its way to the city of Znamyanka in Kirovohrad Oblast. Romanyuk said they were in discussion with the Defense Ministry whether to continue home to their base in Ivano-Frankivsk region, or be sent back to the Anti-Terrorist Operation.
In what is becoming a repeated refrain, the apparent failure of the government to provide its soldiers with even the most basic supplies is undermining both the conduct of the war and the morale of those fighting it.
“They were dumped,” said Romanyuk. “And absolutely all the territorial defense battalions are in this position. So they are in revolt against the Ministry of Defense. No one wants to endure this idiotic command anymore, and this inadequate attitude to soldiers, to the needs of the army and the National Guard.”
The situation is not looking good for the coup government in Kiev. Some of the neo-nazi national guard battalions have even threatened to come to Kiev to "clean the house."
The loss of the battle is also the reason why Ukraine now really, really fast wants to join NATO. That is not going to happen. NATO has a simple rule that countries with internationally disputed areas can not join. Should Ukraine give up on Crimea its move would make sense. But as it can not yet do so the joining request is just helpless yapping. As a little consolidation price the IMF squandered another $1.4 billion by giving it to bancrupt Kiev as a part of a larger loan. Ukraine will probably use that to pay for the T-72 tanks it recently bought from Hungary. Officially the IMF is not allowed to give money to countries at war. That may be the reason why yesterday official talk of an "invasion" by Russia was later toned down to "incursion".
The military battle defeat was the reason why Russia was accused of an invasion even when the OECD observers says (in German) that they have "no objective information" to support such a claim. Such propaganda rushes as yesterday always follow when the shit hits the fan for the "western" side. They are also occasions to introduce new sanction which from the U.S. point of view, have the nice feature of solely hurting both Europe and Russia. The U.S. poodle in No. 10 now wants to kick Russia out of the SWIFT inter-banking systems:
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as SWIFT, is one of Russia’s main connections to the international financial system. Prime Minister David Cameron’s government plans to put the topic on the agenda for a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels tomorrow, according to the official, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.
“Blocking Russia from the SWIFT system would be a very serious escalation in sanctions against Russia and would most certainly result in equally tough retaliatory actions by Russia,” said Chris Weafer, a senior partner at Moscow-based consulting firm Macro Advisory. “An exclusion from SWIFT would not block major trade deals but would cause problems in cross-border banking and that would disrupt trade flows.”
"Trade flows" in this case are gas supplies from Russia needed in Europe throughout the winter. If the gas bill can not be paid because Russia gets kicked out of SWIFT the spice will not flow. Only the U.K., which does not need Russian gas supplies, could come up with such a lunatic idea.
On the other side it would probably be good for the world in the longer term should Russia be kicked out of SWIFT. The BRICS countries would of course immediately introduce an alternative under their control which would then lead to more preferential trade between them. Such an alternative would make SWIFT no longer indispensable and useless as a tool for "western" sanctions.
Also today the Iranian foreign minister Zarif visited Moscow for talks with Russia. The atmosphere was said to be quite positive. But someone in Washington took this visit as an insult and immediately slapped more sanctions on Iran:
The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on more than 25 people and companies it accused of violating sanctions against Iran, including shipping firms, airlines, and six Iranian banks.
Why, in the mid of so far positive talks with Iran about its nuclear program, does the U.S. feel this need to escalate again? Iran and Russia see their national aspirations as just and can therefore not be moved by sanctions. Is that really so hard to understand?
Such sanctions and childish petty acts, like Poland's overflight blockage of a Russian Defense Minister flight, will only create more strife in the world and a stronger urge for many states to distance themselves from the "west" with its seemingly more and more crazy leaders.
First the good news: For the Ukie junta, the victories will keep getting closer to home. The reporters won’t have to travel so far, and the supply lines will be shorter, saving much needed petrol.
Second, it all comes down to the upcoming NATO Summit. We are seeing a lot of nervous preening and posturing before the big event. An event, by the way, which is clearly off-balance, overtaken by the rapidity of transpiring battles in the now, terminally ill, Borderlands. Mark Galeotti’s recent piece in the Moscow Times, “Donetsk Is Neither Grozny Nor Stalingrad” will go down in the annals of whoring punditry as almost uniquely out of touch with the real world. No worry, I believe he is tenured. Still, I wish I could get paid for that trash.
The big question, of course, is what Merkel will decide to do. If she sits on the fence any longer, it will take major surgery to pry her off. Disfiguring surgery. And this is already happening. Russia’s strategy is to ignore the hectoring taunts coming from the US-led Baltic zone and focus on prying off tasty small chunks of the tender southern flank: Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, and so on. Should she succeed, and all signs are that she will over time, then Germany will find herself losing parts of her Euro-finance empire, the EU will be threatened, and NATO will be vanquished as irrelevant. Slava Moskva!
Sooner or later, large parts of the EU — Greece, Italy, Spain, and France will decide that they can no longer afford to play this insanely destructive game of chicken and continue supporting an EU austerity regime that has only ground themselves into dusty irrelevance. At that point, Germany will still be stuck on the fence — but now, looking and smelling for all the world like a grilling goose on a turning rotisserie spit — and it will be in no one’s interest anymore to pry her off. Oh, the Schadenfreude!
On the other hand, if she turns hawk at the summit and sides with NATO, German industry will be destroyed. Who will buy her wares in the non-aligned world if she openly sides with the evil empire? Russia and China won’t step in to save her. Brazil, Japan and Taiwan will be laughing all the way to the bank. The US has no industry left to modernize, so it can’t help out. Germany, like the US, depends on its soft power to grease the skids in its business affairs with the world. To willfully destroy it is tantamount to treason. Despite the bleating of neo-cons in all countries, including Germany, hard power is losing its power of persuasion in the coming New Multipolar World Order™, and is only money wasted on following the clearly discredited US model of hollowing out the Homeland to little outside effect. The world has grown tired of Gorillas pounding their chests in rage. Putin’s role model is Teddy Roosevelt, not George W. Bush. Speak softly, and maintain an agile judo stance.
But that would be the least of our worries. If Germany throws her weight behind NATO, we would see endless rounds of deepening sanctions until, eventually, a new Iron Curtain was established; the entire world would fall into the deepest depression; riots would break out in every Western country involved in this mess; governments would fall en masse; and a possible World War would be seen as the only solution for the elite. That is, if one sees destroying the world in order to save it as a solution. For China and South America, this would be a very hard sell. If it trod down this criminal path, any nation, including the US and Germany, would instantly destroy whatever soft power it had left for eternity.
The new Iron Curtain would be seen as the only way — for the West now, instead of the East — to prevent their area of influence from shrinking. An Ironic Curtain, anyone? And what would Europe do for energy needs once it cuts off its Russian nose to spite its European face?
Truly, there are no good options left for Germany — or the artist once known as Great Britain, for that matter, who would soon be facing a Wales referendum next, only to be followed by Cornwall, in all probability. (Who would then consider itself lucky to re-unite with Normandy!) At the outset of this Victoria Nuland-staged period piece, Germany, as the de facto leader of Europe, should have had the temerity to have bitten the bullet it has held gingerly between its teeth since 1945 — and stood up to the evil empire, once and for all. If it can endure the harsh North Sea gales in winter, it would have endured the worst that US spying and paid fifth columns could have thrown at it — and siding with Russia from the start, it would have been well on its way by now towards a glorious partnership. It would have been an extraordinarily steep price to pay for several years, but recovery to full blown, robust, and stable health would have been rapid after that. Europe would be whole and healthy again, and we would not have to watch endless re-runs of Monty Python’s “Black Knight” lopping off parts of his own body and pretending to enjoy it: What is funny for others is not fun for ourselves.
So, where are we now? Still trying to square the circle? Still gnawing off small bits of the cracker, while promising we won’t eat it all?
The US appears to have England, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, Poland and the Baltics firmly in its pockets. But after that, nothing is assured. As the current world order crumbles, everything else is up for grabs.
Quo Vadis Europe?; Quo Vadis, Nulandistan?; Quo Vadis, Germany?; Quo Vadis Scotland?
Oh, did I forget to mention the rump Ukraine? Fahgettaboudit, it’s irrelevant at this point. Yats should never have thought he was Yaz, and Nuland ain’t no New York Casey Stengel.
Posted by: Malooga | Aug 30 2014 0:38 utc | 57
Well, “First, there isn’t a method to quantify public opinion in East Ukraine today.”
I think it’s practically unfathomable to conjecture on how it must be, or what people must collectively think about anything, anywhere else in the world in any culture. When I think just of my experience of being fated to living in the USA, which is not my fault for being born, my own thoughts regarding the current condition of this culture is the culmination of so many years, so many different moments of experience, and decisions, and careful (for me) thoughts about what I have seen. But for you, living in the Ukraine perhaps, have not seen the get togethers with friends, the hardships, and the good times as I live them, the work I have done to survive, the dialects, the innuendos, I may as well be explaining life on another planet.
If I were to relate any of my individual circumstances to someone from the Ukraine, perhaps, what interpretation would that invoke? Perhaps that life in the USA is relatively soft, for example? And indeed based on certain criteria perhaps it may have been? Maybe, but to compare our situations, and to derive any kind of conclusion as to what my experience is, is to accuse me of having been born in the first place. I am not that Cinna, I would say paraphrasing Shakespeare. So, so many people in comments such as are here cry out, “but that’s not who we are as Germans.” Whoever you may be, you might do what you were told if you mother or sister or father or brother were threatened with some appalling bestiality, and their survival depended on you.
If you were to inquire of my next door neighbor about the status of life in the USA, he would tell you that baseball is the most important thing in the world, and has no concern regarding fascism arriving in this little village. Yet outside his little domicile hangs a plaque which reads, “Wise village elder.!” Where is Socrates to travel around challenging the proclaimed “wise” people who live in every village anywhere, before you would ever locate just one person, a Joseph Conrad, for example, who could discourse with you regarding some general trend in human nature, about life far from home. For most people, if they are adequately fed, and have shelter, they are placated. All else is trivial.
And, predicting the future without caveats, will never work, it’s better to listen to the language of birds, or to scatter bones on the ground and attempt to decipher them. Perhaps Reagan was right! If we all had the internet during the dark ages, we all would have known better, what outrage there would have been about the slaughter of indigenous people!
Best to conclude that the outcome will be “ironic,” perhaps bitterly so, rather than say this will happen or that.
Posted by: geoff29 | Aug 30 2014 13:31 utc | 90
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