Ukraine: Retreat From Slaviansk Far From End Game
The Saker is somewhat depressed that the insurgents in east Ukraine retreated from Slaviansk. But that retreat was in good order and with few losses despite being surrounded by enemy forces. As their commander Strelkov explains there was no way Slaviansk could be defended against superior artillery and air superiority with little means to counter those.
Strelkov is now setting up defenses in Donetsk which is a nuch bigger city with more resources and likely easier to defend. As the Ukrainian army and the National Guard stormtroopers from the Right Sektor now move forward they may soon find that they have some "left behind" enemies in their back who can seriously influence their operations.
Supporters of the insurgents seem to blame Russia's President Putin for lack of (visible) support. But that is, in my view, thinking too small. It is far too early to have any idea of who has won or lost in Ukraine. What Putin is currently trying to do, with growing success, is to separate the Europeans from the ever meddling United States. Last Thursday a new agreement on a ceasefire was negotiated and agreed upon with Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine at the table. When the German chancellor Merkel informed U.S. President Obama about it it was the U.S. which again threatened Russia and urged the Ukrainian President Poroshenko to continue his "Anti-Terrorist Operation". The Germans and French will have taken note of this and will again move a bit more further towards the Russian side.
In judging the current situation I agree with Anatol Karlin who finds that Putin is playing a clever but cynical game:
[T]he lack of *direct* [Russian] intervention is more likely just the product of a series of cold calculations that show it more likely to be effective in a few months than today, when:a) The Ukrainian Army has become weaker and more demoralized;
b) Photos of bisected, bloodied, and burnt corpses have been filling the Russian and international airwaves for a few months;
c) The resolve of the West and its unity are weaker;
d) The Russian economy is more prepared for any sanctions that are forthcoming; and
e) Austerity is biting Ukraine hard, and (gas-less) winter is coming.
Too bad that it is the residents of Donetsk who will be playing the blood price for this.
The Twisted Genius (TTG), who is former Green Beret trained in creating and directing local insurgencies, has a somewhat similar take on the situation:
[Putin] he is another hard hearted empath. He knows that Novorossiya must be forged from fire if it is to survive. They must want it and be willing to fight for it themselves.
...
Additionally, Putin disdains the West’s penchant for R2P and aggressive interference in the affairs of others. He will move if he thinks it is necessary and when he thinks it is necessary. For now, I believe he is content to provide covert support as necessary, push for a real ceasefire and political solution, and bide his time as a new nation that intends to span from Kharkov to Oddessa and Transnistria births itself.
Posted by b on July 6, 2014 at 14:58 UTC | Permalink
« previous pageOh and of course you know better than the experts behind the dictionaries how to define things. God in heavens.
P.S. by the way 1 and 2 are the actual meaning within context
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 8 2014 12:24 utc | 202
a classic commment from Youtuber re Psaki
TheRedCapitalist13 hours ago
Next answer from Psaki, 'Well, the 90 year old Muslim woman provoked the US drone into blowing her to pieces by picking strawberries, The US drone detected this act of aggression and had no choice but to protect itself by using all the missiles in it's fuselage. The 90 year old woman's strawberry picking was the root cause of this unfortunate incident in which she was blown up"
Posted by: brian | Jul 8 2014 13:15 utc | 203
Wow obama really is a jackass.
http://rt.com/news/171188-russian-hacker-kidnapped-america/
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 8 2014 13:23 utc | 204
schweden's foreign minister (carl bildt) threat RUssia with war if Ukraine is attacked by Russia.
see feed here:
https://twitter.com/mozgovaya
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 8 2014 15:07 utc | 206
There is no real evidence that Russia has ever provided any military or financial aid to the separatists in the Donbass. It was Putin that told them not to have a referendum.
It appears that they have captured or "found" most of their military equipment. Yet, the money for uniforms, food, etc. must have come from somewhere!
It is hard to believe that a small "rag tag" outfit could hold off the entire Ukrainian army for two months and then escape from complete encirclement.
Maybe the separatist movement is actually supported by the West in an attempt to coerce Putin into ivading Ukraine
Posted by: Tavrik | Jul 8 2014 15:27 utc | 207
@Tavrik #207:
It is hard to believe that a small "rag tag" outfit could hold off the entire Ukrainian army for two months and then escape from complete encirclement.
You are under the misapprehension that the Ukraine is a real country. It is not. It is a fantasy of some Russians who were colonized by Poland, Austrio-Hungary, the German Reich, and finally by the US, and brainwashed by these foreign powers into thinking that there is something called the Ukrainian people.
The Ukraine is now the poorest country in Europe. Given that and that it is a fantasy to begin with, it follows that it cannot have an effective army. The Ukrainian army is composed mostly of young recent conscripts who have no will to fight for a fantasy. The most effective forces that the junta has are Right Sector/National Guard and the private militias belonging to a given oligarch, but these are only effective at slaughtering unarmed civilian, as opposed to engaging in military battle.
Putin has no interest of destroing Kiew-Junta. As long there is Kiew Junta this is guaranteing Russias survival. Ukraina needs Russia to survive. So west faschist can`t fight Putin whitout risking of loosing Ukraine. The more Ukraine hungers the better for Russia. Hungry people don`t fight.
West chaos backfires to the west.
Posted by: ZX | Jul 8 2014 21:18 utc | 209
OT but congrats Germany
http://rt.com/news/171364-germany-demolishes-brazil-world-cup/
1-7!
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 8 2014 21:56 utc | 210
@Anonymous #210:
To get back on topic: I haven't followed the World Cup this time around, but I did find this comment to the RT story you linked to:
If we are to be objective and honest about humiliation in the world cup 2014, Russia was the most humiliated because of the amount of money Russia wasted just to getting to the world cup and with so little effort, or heart or soul from the players and with that stupid couch. I am still very angry from how bad Russia did because I wanted to see Russia come to at least the final 16 or even the final 8th.
The World Cup isn't the only venue in which Russia is currently being humiliated.
Yes, congrats Germany, I always root for you in the World Cup. If only you showed the same determination in transatlantic matters.
Donetsk. 07/08/2014-22:20
Comment: About Donetsk being ready for lengthy defense.
Strelkov:
Apparently, noway I can say the city is prepeared for defense, bease the city is entirely in peaceful state. So far, no practical defense arrangements have been implemented. Level of city readiness is such of Slavyansk 2 months ago. That is constructed fortifications may stop armored personal carries and somewhat similar to National Guard or units of Ministry of Internal Affairs (police). Against armored columns of the opponent, which heavily relies on tanks and artillery, the city can defend itself with a great strain and heavy losses of combatants. Every day we endeavor urgent measures to prepare the city for combat.From the point of mind set of the local population, apparently, the locals live deeply peaceful lives. They barely realize or do not believe that Ukrainian punitive units may open massive artillery fire, massive warplane strikes targeting residential quarters. For long time we did not believe either, only during the last month of active siege we were convinced that the opponents prefers a terroristic tactic of devastation, eradicating the infrastructure, the industrial sector. First target, as strange as it may seem, but not to me anymore, in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk were not the combatant positions, although perfectly known, not city quarters, but the industrial sector. In particular, for 3 days, the opponent tediously fired at a Thermal Power Plant under Nikolayevka. This was still going on one day after the combatants left the city. Same was practiced with territories of other plants void of combatants and any block-posts. The plants were being regularly and meticulously destroyed by the artillery.
That is, the point was not to kick the combatants out of city, but, in process of kicking them out, tear down the infrastructure as much as possible. To leave people without place to work, place to live and whatevere else. To persuade the population to abandon, deprive in means to exist even following the end of military operation.
I assume that the current Ukrainian authorities will not stop short of having done same in Donetsk. No one should harbor delusions; even if we depart from here the locals would not be allowed peaceful existence. So called United Europe does not need rivalry either industrial or scientific, but rather territory of cheap labor.
Comment: Combatant forces are sufficiently staffed.
Strelkov:
Of course not enough. Given a million of city denizens, let along the entire Republic, there are very small number of combatants. The territory of the city is huge, the controlled territory of the Republic is also fairly great. To securely protect and defend it by the forces available is not impossible, but, given the exceptional opponent superiority in armored hardware, let along in the air, is very difficult…Serious mobilizing undertaking in needed. However, the resources, such as weapons and ammunition, are not easily available – none at the moment. Having these, a total mobilization would be no brainer solution. Regardless of 3/4 deserted, those 1/4 who stay would be adequate. But such mobilization is not possible. Yet, several thousands of volunteers could be weaponized, equipped and trained in short time. I think, about 8-10 thousands would suit to conclusively stop the Ukrainian army…
Continued...
Posted by: Fete | Jul 9 2014 5:22 utc | 212
"Maybe the separatist movement is actually supported by the West in an attempt to coerce Putin into ivading Ukraine"
There were speculations in that direction, I had the thought too. The whole thing is just way too unbelievable and sick in many ways and this Strelkov guy did so many things wrong, it's almost impossible for it to be real. Let alone that he had the time to tweet 20 times a day and write in five blogs, while supposedly fighting for survival - not very likely. But alas, we do not know. Maybe it was deliberate disinformation to confuse the enemy, but my gut feeling says that something is fishy here.
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 9 2014 6:36 utc | 213
@ Fete: wait, the whole war thing was ongoing for months now and he still doesn't even have 10k people with guns? In a land with 10+ Million ethnic Russians?
something is definitely fishy about that guy's story.
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 9 2014 6:45 utc | 214
@T2015 #214:
Since the breakup of the USSR, most ethnic Russians who are legally citizens of the make-believe country known as the Ukraine were brainwashed into thinking that they are Ukrainians, not Russians. That is a large part of the problem.
In an interview, a Russian citizen who is part of the resistance said that about half of the fighters in his resistance group are Novorossiyans (citizens of the former Ukraine); the other half are Russian citizens like himself.
I don't think Strelkov blogs; others do it for him. What end up as blog posts by him usually are transcripts of video interviews that also eventually end up on the Web; Here is the most recent interview with him, in case you understand Russian.
Demian
Or take this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9if_MVl45Q
Its ok to hate russians year 2014. Despicable.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 9 2014 8:37 utc | 216
@ Demian, "In an interview, a Russian citizen who is part of the resistance said that about half of the fighters in his resistance group are Novorossiyans (citizens of the former Ukraine); the other half are Russian citizens like himself."
That is exactly what I find fishy. If those people are truly attacked by the nazis and have to defned their lives, they WILL stand up and join the fight. There would be no need for russian volunteers or whatever.
Blogs or interviews or whatever, it takes time. Again, I still remember the war, as a soldier you have neither time nor energy for a PR-campaign. You must use every free moment for rest and sleep, the short leaves, if possible, are dedicated to your family and private life etc.
What I could imagine - there is a real commander on the ground and Strelkov is just the PR-clown for misinformin/confusingg the enemy and as a decoy. He is OBVIOUSLY not a military guy with any idea about strategy or combat - and I mean the person who is doing those interviews and blogs, be that the real Strelkov or some ghost writer.
But again, I do not know the facts on the ground, just speculating out of my arse here, based on what I encountered in my life. If our people had acted half as lame and stupid back then as this bunch does (or rather writes, whatever they're actually doing) today, we'd be all dead now.
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 9 2014 9:02 utc | 217
This is just stupid by Russia:
http://rt.com/news/line/2014-07-09/#65788
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 9 2014 14:22 utc | 218
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/07/09/pushing-ukraine-to-the-brink/
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/07/08/ukrainian-nationalism-what-is-the-real-story/
Posted by: bevin | Jul 9 2014 14:31 utc | 219
@Anonymous #218:
At least Tefft is a career diplomat. McFaul is a professional Russia hater. In an op-ed written after Crimea reunited with Russia, McFaul actually refereed to the Russian government as a "regime", and accused Putin of "revisionism", by not acting as if Russia had lost the Cold War.
@bevin #219:
The second Counterpunch article shows how the Bolsheviks share a good part of the blame for the current situation. Both Lenin and Trotsky encouraged Ukrainian nationalism. Since there is very little to base Ukrainian identity on (other than speaking a peasant dialect of Russian and thinking that "salo" (lard) is a great delicacy), Ukrainian nationalism inevitably leads to a racist fascism.
As Colonel Cassad observes, the characteristics of civil war are increasingly manifesting themselves:
Asked to comment on two essential points..1. In Kramatorsk city forum of local fifth column gives people associated with the militia up; especially indicative instance is when brother denounces to the fascists his sister. […]
2. In captured cities and villages is terror against the civilian population.
Families splitting along political lines, with brother betraying brother, and summary execution by firing squad are two things that happen in a civil war. Fairleft, who expects the Donbass to surrender to the fascists, should take note.
Follow the link to read the whole post.
Nudelman aka Nuland threat with gas(?) sanctions against Russia
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/739754
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 9 2014 20:22 utc | 222
@Anonymous #222:
I guess Nuland doesn't watch Russian TV. Yesterday they had a 35 minute report on the situation in Donbass/Novorossia. I don't know if there's such a report every night.
Also, I read an interesting Russian blog post yesterday:
A military solution is required!
The only things that Russia makes at the global level, are air defense systems, combat aircraft, and tanks. If one brackets those out, one is left with a very mediocre country, one on the brink of belonging to the third world. Therefore, we must act using these.
This blogger, whose posts Colonel Cassad regularly posts on his own blog, writes post after post after post arguing that if Russia allows Novorossia to fall, then Russia itself is doomed as a country that anyone will take seriously anymore, and the stability of its own government will become threatened.
Lugansk is under attack by artillery. Today the offices of a newspaper were shelled. I am leaning towards the position that if the junta starts doing the same to Donetsk (Cassad says that the junta will be ready for an assault on that city in a week), Russia should use its air force to destroy what is left of Ukie air power, and also to destroy as much of the fascist artillery and forces as possible. Basically, do what the US initially did in Afghanistan, letting the "Northern Alliance" take territory from the Taliban, and what NATO did in Libya. No kind of sanctions that the West can impose on Russia can be as devastating to Russia as having Novorossia fall.
It is utterly humiliating to Russia that civilians are being shelled with impunity less than 50 km (!) from its border. People in Russia can hear the shelling.
Anna News does not try to hide what war is like. The bleached blonde anchor woman reports:
Good evening! Elena Krosotskaya with the latest Novorossian news. A sniper shot the "Prikarpatye" punitive battalion's chief of staff. Yuri Baranovich perished from a precise shot to the temple, reports MP of the Ivano-Frankovsk Regional Council Yuri Romaniuk.
This video has English subtitles.
… Continued from yesterday (#212 and to answer #214)
Donetsk. 07/08/2014-22:20
Strelkov:
… I think, about 8-10 thousands would suit to conclusively stop the Ukrainian army, which, firstly, gains owning to very significant breaches in our defense, and, of course, its mobility and the solid rear. Our rear is traditionally bad, the logistics is frail too. We will be battling them, stymieing their advances, but, without greater participation of the population of Donbass in defense, the withstanding will be very difficult. We need people, I repeat, 8-10 thousand people for the firm defense have to be summoned. Either they come as volunteers or have to be mobilized. ..Do not want to scary anyone, but deem that without real help of Russia, if Russia will not assist military, the junta on the loose will necessary apply very powers and means at their disposition. Even more so, because the decisions are really not theirs, but brought from overseas in first place. And there, the decision was made to eliminate Donbass. Either entangle Russia in a global war on Ukrainian territory or seize all necessary without war. Consequently, there will be bombing, incursion, shelling.
And, as I repeat, each man has to make a choice - if he is a man, he is expected to defend the motherland. True, not everyone can per moral or will qualities - far not everyone. But honestly, in three months the number of volunteer in multi-million Donbass – the land of miners accustomed to hard labor and the dangerous profession – is rather very small.
Perhaps, many would join the combatants provided a guarantee for the families. This guaranty should now realize - starting this month, we plan to pay the combatants a fair salary of 5-8 thousand hryvnias. May be, this will help who is indecisive to pull together and join the ranks. In other words, we are creating a contractor type army.
Question: Andrei Purgin (an official of Donetsk Republic) is in Moscow. Negotiation should be underway.
Strelkov:
Would not comment, because I am overseeing purely military issues.
Posted by: Fete | Jul 10 2014 4:45 utc | 225
@ Demian 220: " ...Since there is very little to base Ukrainian identity... "
I guess you missed it when I wrote about that - it's exactly the same thing we had in Yugoslavia befor the war. The basic creator and driver of every fascist state in european history was the catholic church.
The basis of the fake "Ukrainian" nationality is that they belong to a church which is not orthodox like russian, but actually under Vatican. And as in Croatia, catholicism was (ab-)used to create that fake "national" identity. It is not national, it is a purely artificial religious division.
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 10 2014 6:19 utc | 226
Oh and: there is no such thing like "civil war". every war is created by some political/economic entity and never, ever are "civilians" as in "citizens" involved. Except as cannon fodder of course.
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 10 2014 6:21 utc | 227
And I can confirm that with the family betrayal, I witnessed the same things back then in YU. Due to many mixed marriages, even I had people in my (remote) family who were on the Croatian side and then I had people who were on the Serbian side. Maybe they even were involved in fights against each other, could be possible. But war is always ridiculous, such things are "normal" then.
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 10 2014 6:25 utc | 228
I have a crazy idea, but I would do the following: open Russia to those 10 Mio. Russians from Ukraine, give them housing and jobs and let them rebuild Novorussia in Russia. Russia needs population growth anyway. As for Ukraine, just build a big wall along the whole border and let them fwck themselves in their fascist wasteland.
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 10 2014 6:28 utc | 229
@T2015 #226:
Yeah, I forgot about the Catholic thing. I only learned about its significance since the crisis began. I have been to the Ukraine, so I knew that they have a strange kind of Catholicism. But when VietnamViet mentioned religious division after the crisis began, I really thought he was wrong about that, since I thought that religion had been pretty much stamped out of all Soviet people.
On a personal note, even though I was raised Russian Orthodox, when I think about the perniciousness of Roman Catholicism, I look at it from the point of view of Martin Luther, I guess because I grew up and live in the US, which is a Protestant country. (This is not to say that I did not grow up thinking of Roman Catholicism as a monstrous religion from an Orthodox point of view as well; that came mostly from reading Gogol as a child.)
@T2015 #229:
That's an interesting idea, but I think the prevailing view among Russians is that Ukie fascism has to be destroyed once and for all. Otherwise, the Ukrainian people and geographic area will always be a festering wound in Russia's side. Also, Russia is European, so it wants to be connected to western Europe, and having a geographical area between Russia and Germany infested with racist fascists complicates that.
Do you know if there has been any work done on the connection between Roman Catholicism and fascism? Obviously, the two main countries associated with fascism, Italy and Spain, are both Catholic. And Hitler was from Austria, which is another Catholic country, and he came to prominence in Munich and, more generally, in Bavaria, both of which are also Catholic.
Obviously, the individualism of Protestantism directly contradicts fascism, while the authoritarian, hierarchical nature of Catholicism makes the perfect breeding ground for it. (As is now well known, Catholicism is a perfect breeding ground for other things besides fascism, such as pedophilia.)
@Demian #230:
Hehe, Carl Schmitt was a Roman Catholic. A Lutheran could never have come up with such a political ideology.
"I thought that religion had been pretty much stamped out of all Soviet people"
Superficially, yes. Same as in my place of birth, if you wanted any sort of "success" in the hierarchy (be it company, the Party, whatever), you had to declare yourself an atheist on paper. The religion was not really forbidden or anyhow suppressed, but it was kept low-key and not practiced so openly in order not to be too visible. Most of us were of "Yugoslav" nationality according to the passport, although there is actually no such thing - it was all Serbs, Croats, Muslims, only the mixtures of those could truly call themselves "yugoslav". The part of the family with which I grew up was also orthodox, but I chose to remain an agnostic - I do believe in the spiritual side of what Jesus said in the bible (or the essence of what other Avatars said before - Buddha, Krishna, Hermes Trismegistos), but I will have nothing to do with any organized church or the stupid simplified version of religion for the masses employed for mind-control and warmongering.
On the other side, that sort of suppressed religious identity produced a bad psychological outcome afterwards, where the pendulum went entirely to the opposite (right-wing/nationalist/zealots) extreme. That suppression was the main excuse for fascists and jihadis and a tool for reeling in the stupid youth etc.
It's not really about religion regarding catholicism. The Vatican church is one of the heads of the Empire, thus it's as always just power politics and territorial pissings. Vatican created every single instance of fascism in European history. Mussolini - catholic, Hitler - catholic, fascist Croatia - catholic, Ukies - catholic, all of them generously supported and promoted by Vatican. Of course I'm not talking about pious believers and regular small people, but the power structure behind it all.
There probably were works related to that, but I have none in memory from the top of my head. what I can recommend is the site I recently often linked, emperors-clothes (tenc.net): http://tenc.net/vatican.htm
Also in their series on Yugoslav war, they take on that topic and also go back to the WW2 times Croatia and what the church did then etc. Probably there will be some references in there somewhere.
the complicity of the Vatikan church in Hitler's germany and in Croatia is very extensively documented, I think it should be easy to find both online and in any library.
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 10 2014 8:25 utc | 232
This specific part is of interest for you, with pictures to boot: http://emperors-clothes.com/vatican/cpix.htm
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 10 2014 8:30 utc | 233
Donetsk. 07/10/2014-18:34
Strelkov:
In short, the opponent transitions to systematic siege of Donetsk in attempt to squeeze the encirclement. On north, it advances toward Lisichansk. Yesterday under threat of encirclement, our forces left Seversk. Combatant units retreated to heights between Lisichansk and Seversk. Our frontier positions in this area lie along Popasnoye, Gorlovka, Dzerzhinsk and farther to Donetsk. Today, tenacious battles have begun in area of Karlovka. The opponent attempted a tank-infantry attack. The attack was rebuffed. Two tanks were destroyed, infantry repelled. After that an artillery combat from both sides is taking place. The reinforcements were sent, which must stymie the opponent. Unfortunately, we also have losses. Farther from Karlovka, the front line passes through west outskirts of Donets, then through satellite settlements…On south, the military operation concentrates in area of “Saur-Mogila” (a height), villages Dmitrovka and Stepanovka, where positional battles and artillery exchange are constant.
Today 14:00, our specialized unit and supporting artillery attacked opponent positions in area of Donetsk airport. Objective to take over the airport was not defined, but the opponent incurred serious losses of personal. Our side concluded without casualties.
The situation in whole is tense, however, the combatants are capable to defend Donetsk and all Donetsk agglomerate (urban area) firm and secure, and consider to hold to main positions on perimeter of the city and prevent the opponent into the city and prevent encircling from east and north-east.
Posted by: Fete | Jul 11 2014 4:32 utc | 235
@Fete #235:
So long as the fascists do not control all of the Russian border, I think that Donbass can hold indefinitely. The fascists have recently reduced the length of the border they do not control from about 150 km to 75 km, but I think that the freedom fighters will make every effort to prevent the junta from making further progress on that score.
It remains to be seen how intensely the junta will bombard Donetsk once its artillery is in place, in about a week. It's pretty clear that as was the case with Slavyansk, they are not going to attempt to storm the city.
The comments to this entry are closed.
@ Tom Gard: so your best argument is to brag about your grammar prowess to a foreigner? How convincing...
Posted by: T2015 | Jul 8 2014 12:23 utc | 201