|
Ukraine: Retreat From Slaviansk Far From End Game
The Saker is somewhat depressed that the insurgents in east Ukraine retreated from Slaviansk. But that retreat was in good order and with few losses despite being surrounded by enemy forces. As their commander Strelkov explains there was no way Slaviansk could be defended against superior artillery and air superiority with little means to counter those.
Strelkov is now setting up defenses in Donetsk which is a nuch bigger city with more resources and likely easier to defend. As the Ukrainian army and the National Guard stormtroopers from the Right Sektor now move forward they may soon find that they have some "left behind" enemies in their back who can seriously influence their operations.
Supporters of the insurgents seem to blame Russia's President Putin for lack of (visible) support. But that is, in my view, thinking too small. It is far too early to have any idea of who has won or lost in Ukraine. What Putin is currently trying to do, with growing success, is to separate the Europeans from the ever meddling United States. Last Thursday a new agreement on a ceasefire was negotiated and agreed upon with Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine at the table. When the German chancellor Merkel informed U.S. President Obama about it it was the U.S. which again threatened Russia and urged the Ukrainian President Poroshenko to continue his "Anti-Terrorist Operation". The Germans and French will have taken note of this and will again move a bit more further towards the Russian side.
In judging the current situation I agree with Anatol Karlin who finds that Putin is playing a clever but cynical game:
[T]he lack of *direct* [Russian] intervention is more likely just the product of a series of cold calculations that show it more likely to be effective in a few months than today, when:
a) The Ukrainian Army has become weaker and more demoralized;
b) Photos of bisected, bloodied, and burnt corpses have been filling the Russian and international airwaves for a few months;
c) The resolve of the West and its unity are weaker;
d) The Russian economy is more prepared for any sanctions that are forthcoming; and
e) Austerity is biting Ukraine hard, and (gas-less) winter is coming.
Too bad that it is the residents of Donetsk who will be playing the blood price for this.
The Twisted Genius (TTG), who is former Green Beret trained in creating and directing local insurgencies, has a somewhat similar take on the situation:
[Putin] he is another hard hearted empath. He knows that Novorossiya must be forged from fire if it is to survive. They must want it and be willing to fight for it themselves.
…
Additionally, Putin disdains the West’s penchant for R2P and aggressive interference in the affairs of others. He will move if he thinks it is necessary and when he thinks it is necessary. For now, I believe he is content to provide covert support as necessary, push for a real ceasefire and political solution, and bide his time as a new nation that intends to span from Kharkov to Oddessa and Transnistria births itself.
Posted by b on July 6, 2014 at 10:58 AM
“In judging the current situation I agree with Anatol Karlin who finds that Putin is playing a clever but cynical game…Too bad that it is the residents of Donetsk who will be playing the blood price for this.”
That’s a clever way of making “Putin” out to be the “bad guy” for not following western plans to get Russia involved in the Ukraine. The obvious undertone in what “b” and Karlin say is that it is up to “Putin” (1) to intervene and stop the western crimes there. Hence, it’s now “his” fault the people in Novorossya are suffering.
What about the “cynical” west who are responsible for all the violence in the Ukraine? What about “b’s” German regime who have done squat to prevent to war, even though they easily could have stopped it cold, and have been behind the western coup from the very beginning, and subsequent repression and attacks on the people there? What about the other EU regimes playing along with the criminal western attack? What about the people of the EU and the USA who sit idly by as their countries promote war after war, coup after coup, and literally do nothing to stop them?
Karlin starts out reasonably in the first paragraph, but after that, one can see he is mostly cleverly applying western propaganda. He uses the western disinformation that Russia (using the “Putin” western propaganda meme) is driving the rebellion in the SW, when Russia is not, and had even requested the rebels to hold off running their separatism vote. He falsely claims it is Russia’s plan to get many 1000’s killed, and then use that as an excuse to enter and take over, when Russia never wanted a separate Novorossya to begin with.
He makes false claims about the militia and troop casualty ratio that makes it clear he is relying upon the false figures put out by the bandera nazi junta.
Karlin leaves out the western intervention in the Ukraine and the fact it is the driving force there. The west supplies the money, leadership, tech support. It is the “head” of the Ukraine now. The war crimes there are western war crimes. Karlin ignores this completely, and reinforces the western propaganda meme of Ukraine vs “Putin”. With that, he is able to ignore all the other geopolitical factors and make the conflict appear to be a cynical “Putin” plan for taking over the Ukraine.
The west engineered their bandera nazi coup in the Ukraine as part of a renewed assault on Russia. They have been trying to get the Russians to intervene by every means possible. The latest ploy now is the “guilt trip” tactic. They keep increasing the provocation level, killing more people, to that end. The west knows public opinion in Russia is in favor of intervention to stop these western nazi war crimes, so they push the “Putin must intervene” meme to discredit him in the eyes of Russian people, as a cynical way to try and force a Russian intervention.
What Karlin (and “b”) is doing in that piece is reinforce that propaganda strategy. Basically, if their war crimes are not getting their desired reaction from the Russian government, they work to get the Russian people outraged enough, public opinion will force the result they want on the Russian government.
This was a successful strategy used by the west in their Pussy Riot operation. They had Pussy Riot stage increasingly provocative actions, trying to force the Russians to arrest them. When arrest was not forthcoming after the church “act”, they pushed their “5th elements” (2) in the media to whip up outrage and force the government to act. When they finally arrested the plugs, then the rest of the western plan was implemented, with the results we all saw. This, in effect, is the same strategy the western fascists are applying in the Ukraine to manipulate the Russians into following the western script for Russia’s isolation, eventual regime change and break-up.
Incidentally, propagandist Karlin got thrashed in the comments after his piece. It’s good to see that people are seeing through this cynical western PR strategy to entice Russia to follow the western fascist “Great Game” plan.
(1) not Russia, you notice, got to keep with that western propaganda meme of “personalities”, easier to use to demonize, and manipulate the masses by reducing geopolitics to simple minded soap opera themes. Dovetails right in with their daily television indoctrination.
(2) obviously not all are “5th element”, but enough to influence. With their Ukraine op, the outrage is enough that there is a significant push for intervention naturally, without need to really to artificially hype it in the Russian media. The western PR manipulators know that.
Posted by: scalawag | Jul 6 2014 16:46 utc | 11
War against war!
Statement of leftists and anarchists on the confrontation in Ukraine
http://avtonomia.net/2014/06/17/vojna-vojne-zayavlenie-levyh-i-anarhistov-po-povodu-protivostoyaniya-v-ukraine-2/#english
In the ongoing conflict, we support neither Ukrainian government nor pro-Russian factions that established their authority on the portion of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. The working class (i.e. everyone who has neither power nor capital) is equally alien both to the concept of unitary Ukraine and to the ideas of ”federalization” or creation of new states — these are merely the games of politicians, drawing blood from ordinary people. We, the left and the anarchists, should primarily adhere to the needs of the working class in the war-torn regions of Ukraine, protect their rights and freedoms.
Against LPR and DPR!
Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” are a collection of warring right-wing juntas. Rights and freedoms, which are granted to the rest of Ukraine, are not available in the territories under their control. Public manifestation of political dissent is not possible there; worker rights activists who criticized DPR were kidnapped and tortured. Upon preservation of these regimes the working class will be completely deprived of any opportunity to defend their legal rights. The only possible form of the “left” activity in DPR and LPR is the ritual worship of Soviet symbols, which has nothing to do with the workers’ interests.
The reactionary regimes of DPR and LPR are not interested in peaceful solution, they aim at escalating the conflict even further, which is confirmed by the promises of their leaders to “get to Kharkov”, “to Kiev” and “to Lviv”.
Against the Ukrainian government!
Ukrainian authorities profit from war contracts, send war reservists and untrained conscripts to to the frontline of the civil war, and attempt to use the protracted military conflict to strengthen their positions. Contrary to the forced rhetorics of the unity between the government and people, we must resist all attempts to curtail social guarantees, political rights and freedoms, all manifestations of police and military violence, all the incitement of nationalist and religious prejudice among soldiers and common people. For the ruling class, war is the opportunity of a crackdown in political and social spheres. In struggle against the aggression of Putin’s regime and his satellites, Ukrainians should not neglect the danger of a “Putin” who can emerge in their own country.
After their victory over the “separatists”, whose position is doomed without the external military support, the strengthened Kiev regime will once again become a major threat to the working class. If the oppressed unite with the ruling class under the patriotic banners, the crackdown on human rights and freedoms, which was to be avoided by the Maidan, is inevitable under the new government. Parliament is comprised of the representatives of conservative and far-right parties (“Batkivshyna”, “Svoboda”), which had repeatedly sponsored obscurantist bills – in particular, the restitution of death penalty, restriction of reproductive rights, preventive arrests on political motives; the charters of these parties contain appeals to ban political strikes. In many of the initiatives they mimic such of the Putin’s regime, of the Party of Regions or of the Communist Party. Despite their plummeting ratings, such rhetorics are perceived as a legitimate part of the political field.
Against fascists on both sides of the frontline!
We unhesitatingly oppose the legitimization of ultra-nationalist and criminal groups as members of the “anti-terrorist operation”. However, we should note that among those fighting on the other side are the volunteers from European fascist organizations and the ultra-reactionaries from Russia, and pro-Kremlin propaganda only portrays them as “anti-fascist warriors”.
Against war incitement under the guise of pacifism!
We are equally disgusted by saber rattling and cheering the killing of enemies, on the one side, and by pseudo-pacifist speculations of the people directly responsible for the escalation of violence, on the other. Pacifism is neither compatible with the backing of the “New Russia” regimes or expressing any kind of sympathy towards them, nor with the support of Ukrainian militarism.
Against lies and propaganda from all sides!
Information space and the media have become a genuine battlefield, the people of Ukraine and Russia are being fed opposite in content but equally spurious propaganda that strengthens militancy on both sides of the conflict and sets workers on against other; this allows governments to channel social discontent into a safe direction. Therefore, it is important not to follow the crowd, which is pleased to receive the news it wants to hear, but to keep a sober mind and stay true to our principles. Only time will help to reconstruct the events truthfully.
For the development of the labor movement!
The working class in Ukraine is still in its infancy and is does not take part in the conflict as a subject. We need to formulate and defend the social agenda and help the development of organizations that express the interests of workers. Only a strong labor movement that realizes its interests will be able to establish peace in Ukraine.
We oppose involuntary military service, and demand to end the conscription and release all soldiers who do not want to fight.
We support the campaign of aiding internally displaced persons from the war-torn regions, and we are ready to support deserters and conscripts who evade service on ethical and political grounds. AWU-Kharkiv already runs a campaign to support the internally displaced people in its area – we urge all libertarians and left to join in or do the same in their areas.
We express our support and solidarity with the workers’ and trade union initiatives that fight for their labor rights; we are ready to actively support those who are struggling against DPR and LPR from the class standpoint. They are in a much more serious danger today than activists from Central and Western Ukraine.
No war but the class war!
Posted by: thomas | Jul 7 2014 6:45 utc | 87
|
