Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 13, 2014
Iran: The Nuclear Negotiations Scam

Four "western" Foreign Ministers flew to Vienna today to further negotiate about Iran's nuclear achievements. It is quite dubious why Kerry thought that such a meeting now would be helpful. It looks like this was planned as an attempt to intimidate Iran into further concessions but failed because neither Russia's nor China's Foreign Minister are attending.

The negotiations are supposed to find a compromise until July 20. After that the negotiations would have to be prolonged for another 6 month which would only give more time to those who are against any deal to sabotage it.

The two sticking points are "breakout capacity" and the length of the period Iran would restrict itself to a certain limits of its industrial nuclear capacities. The "breakout capability" is a quite weird concept described as the total centrifuge capacity and thereby capability to produce enough enriched Uranium for one sole bomb in a certain time frame. Of course no state wanting a nuclear deterrent would use its officially declared, and highly controlled capacities to produce the materials needed. Nor would the reach of a "one bomb" capability be significant in any strategic sense.

But the U.S. negotiators seem to stick to the concept of arbitrarily limiting enrichment capabilities while even very seasoned U.S. proliferation experts find that it not helpful and that it risks to make any deal impossible:

So the most realistic goal in Vienna isn’t to make breakout impossible, but to make it a difficult and unattractive option for Iran. Once you see that as the goal, you realize that the gains in transparency from any likely deal—extremely close monitoring of declared facilities and the power to inspect undeclared facilities—should be at the forefront of American thinking about this problem. It would be a mistake to sacrifice such transparency in a failed attempt to reduce Iran’s breakout capacity by some arbitrary increment that is actually less valuable than many in Washington think it is.

The Chinese and Russian seem see the U.S. concept of "breakout capability" as a sham that is used to sabotage the talks:

Vladimir Evseyev of the Russian state-run CIS institute says Washington’s insistence that Iran shut down uranium enrichment facilities and negotiate on its missile program violates the accords outlining the scope of the talks. The U.S., he said, wants negotiations to “to be lengthy and painful,” so as to keep sanctions in place for its own political agenda.

Diplomats familiar with the talks say Moscow shares Washington’s desire to reach a deal but is significantly less demanding of Tehran. While the U.S. wants deep cuts in Iranian programs that could be used to make nuclear arms, Russia would settle for pervasive monitoring, they say.

The Chinese and Russians are agreeing with the U.S. proliferation experts. The "breakout capability" is nonsense and good monitoring is much more important than any numerical capacity restriction.

That "western" states use the concept of "breakout capacity" at all can only be interpreted as their unwillingness of reaching a deal with Iran.

Comments

that it risks to make any deal impossible
That’s what Amerika and it’s so-called friends want, they just moving the goal post no matter what Iran wants.

Posted by: jo6pac | Jul 13 2014 15:15 utc | 1

I smell a pretext.

Posted by: Colinjames | Jul 13 2014 15:32 utc | 2

‘ The U.S., he said, wants negotiations to “to be lengthy and painful,” so as to keep sanctions in place for its own political agenda. ‘
That’s it. Death to Palestine, death to Iran. After the lengthy and painful process I’ll bet the corpses that result are those of the torturers themselves.

Posted by: john francis lee | Jul 13 2014 15:34 utc | 3

The US gets to define (and redefine) all the terms in any deal it negotiates, which is why everyone accepts that any deal signed by the US isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. This point seems to have been lost on the US strategists, but I suspect not for much longer. No one will make a deal with the Monster that is not self-enforcing.

Posted by: Knut | Jul 13 2014 15:34 utc | 4

If Iran offered to give up every scrap of radioactive material in the country, the US would still not come to an agreement and lift the sanctions.
Iran has to embrace the sanctions regime, use them as an opportunity to develop industries, markets and suppliers of its own and impose its own sanctions on the United States and its satraps.
It should also develop its own nuclear arsenal.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 13 2014 15:36 utc | 5

If an agreement is reached it will only be because US has bigger fish to fry — Russia. Some anti Russia fanatics like Zbig apparently favor better relations with Iran.

Posted by: Andoheb | Jul 13 2014 16:00 utc | 6

i think most on this site agree the usa isn’t an honest broker. many would argue that they’re very dishonest! the usa brand hasn’t been helped by it’s past actions either. no matter how it gets rationalized, sanctioning certain countries for what other countries have and aren’t being sanctioned for, makes no sense whatever…
mr big wants to call all the shots.. unless you’re friends and agree with the dictates, you don’t have a say! mr. big continues to look like mr. petty as usual.
anyone paying attention rightly views usa’s actions as hypocritical in the extreme, which is right in keeping with there recent history and actions..

Posted by: james | Jul 13 2014 16:02 utc | 7

Russia and China (jointly would be best) should just either give Iran the bomb or place a few there, manned by Russia and Chinese. Unless the US/West drops all sanctions/demands immediately.

Posted by: Eureka Springs | Jul 13 2014 16:08 utc | 8

The Idea of lifting Sanction on Iran and the US and Iran becoming formal friend is sort of impossible with the mullahs around.
If they become friends that would mean that Iran is no longer a threat in the middle East and hence there is no justification for the Gulf Dictators to buy the expensive junk and let it rust in their warehouse.
Its just not good for business for anyone unless America flips side towards Iran and the Arab Dictators become the new anti-Christ.

Posted by: Nini | Jul 13 2014 16:32 utc | 10

All this nonsense to please Israel! There seems no end to how far Israel will
push America around to do its bidding.

Posted by: Kayo | Jul 13 2014 16:45 utc | 11

Russia and China need to establish an alternate financial network…ASAP.
That is the only thing which can bring the US government and its corporatist masters to even begin considering acting like lawful members of the international community.

Posted by: jawbone | Jul 13 2014 16:48 utc | 12

How low will the UE go?
http://www.les-crises.fr/cdh-impunite-multinationales/
(documents in French, English and Spanish:
http://business-humanrights.org/en/binding-treaty-pros-and-cons

Posted by: Mina | Jul 13 2014 17:07 utc | 13

Before I am accused of spoiling the thread, I would like to argue that there is indeed some relation between the situation in Iraq and the current negociation with Iran.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/07/was-camp-bucca-pressure-cooker-extremism
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/12/uk-cia-torture-flights-rendition-programme

Posted by: Mina | Jul 13 2014 17:34 utc | 14

The only ones in the West who want a deal with Iran is EU. They are losing a major oil/gas supplier and a trade partner. Iran’s trade with China went from few bln. to 50 bln due to illegal West sanctions, and soon will reach 100 bln., all of it could have been with EU.
US couldnt care less about what EU wants so they’ll likely sabotage the deal (like always), since it never was about nuclear issue. As long as EU are gutless cowards, there wont be nuclear deal.

Posted by: Harry | Jul 13 2014 17:54 utc | 15

As long as EU are gutless cowards, there wont be nuclear deal.

Couldn’t have said it better myself, Harry.

Posted by: okie farmer | Jul 13 2014 18:26 utc | 16

“Israel’s” imaginary Nukes are my favourite non-topic if one wants to have a pointless discussion. The parsimonious “Israelis” decided to rely on bullshit & flim flam (and pocket the cash) to create an imaginary Nuclear Arsenal. I’m genuinely shocked that so many apparently intelligent individuals are incapable of examining and interpreting “Israel’s” behaviour and reaching the correct conclusion … that “Israel’s” nukes are even MORE fake than “Israel” itself.

Having seen what happened to Iraq and Libya after they killed off their nuclear weapons programs, the Iranians know that that course is a fast-track to annihilation. And we should expect Iran to behave in perfect harmony with that realisation.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 13 2014 18:59 utc | 17

I like the comments on this site and particularly agree with Bevin @4, Iran is building a formidable conventional force consisting of long range missiles capable of reaching all Israeli cities and the vulnerable US bases and fleet. The Strait of Hormuz could easily be blocked with the resultant economic demise of Western Europe. With Russia and China on Irans side the US/Israel are snookered.I also agree with Harry @14 This has nothing to do with Iranian nukes but regime change, which to be fair to the US they have consistently and foolishly tried to achieve since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Hoarsewhisperer @16. correct. the US philosophy is never let a good deed go unpunished.

Posted by: harry law | Jul 13 2014 22:35 utc | 18

The “nucular” issue is utter bogus. Iran is simply on the neocon list, they’re
a target, boom, like you know, the ones who don’t bow to the dollar, the ziocons
and their freedom. Brussels is winning any contest in reverse-limbo. Hail Obama!

Posted by: slirs | Jul 13 2014 23:51 utc | 19

ZioNazis are hyenas rampant in the veldt. Ukraine is on the menu right now. They’re ripping into its asshole, pulling out its guts, muzzles covered with chocolate blood. Expanding into Gaza, eating their children, stealing their offshore gas reserves, is the evening’s killing. They’re burying Iran for later. It’ll keep. It’ll all keep. All of it. They Own the Trope!
Muslims and Migras both believe Jesus was a Prophet. ZioNazis believe in only One Profit.
The Fourth Reich of a Thousand Years began with their 2000 Coup Return of the Anti-Christ.
“We won, you lost. It’s just business, get over it! NOW GET BACK INSIDE THE RAZOR WIRE!”
NO EXIT
AND
THREE OTHER PLAYS
BY
JEAN PAUL SARTRE

Posted by: chip nikh | Jul 14 2014 11:32 utc | 20

“The only ones in the West who want a deal with Iran is EU. They are losing a major oil/gas supplier and a trade partner.”
There’a bit of a pattern here, isn’t there? The same could be said about Ukraine. It is almost as if the US government said “Fuck the EU!”
In seeking global hegemony the US is concerned with keeping all potential rivals down. And the EU, potentially, is as big a rival as China, and even more capable of bringing Russia, its natural ally, in on its side.
The US knows that the current crop of Quislings and Abu Mazens running Europe, the Merkels, Camerons, Hollandes, Rasmussens et al is going to be turfed one day by resurgent nationalists campaigning for the return of welfare states and end to banking dominance.
That’s why British nuclear weapons are only British in the sense that British workers pay for them, they are entirely controlled by the Pentagon.

Posted by: bevin | Jul 14 2014 14:07 utc | 21

19;Yes,they do seem to act hydrophobic.And with their total control of the MSM,and now the comments to,as they are now pay walling the comments,means more echo chamber disgusting inhumanity for the world and us.They should call Zionism the Hitler rehabilitation project.

Posted by: dahoit | Jul 14 2014 14:22 utc | 22

I wouldn’t be surprised to find the foreign ministers of Russia and China at the BRICS Summit in Fortaleza and Brasilia. If they are needed (US and Iran ready for a compromise) they can fly in to Vienna as Kerry often does.

Posted by: Oui | Jul 14 2014 15:54 utc | 23

Don’t Wait for William Hague …
I’m not sure if that’s good or bad news! I can hardly think a more hawkish FM can be found. I surely hope Hague is not promoted as replacement for EU chief Ms Ashton, that would be a disaster.
Cabinet reshuffle: William Hague stands down as Foreign Secretary

Posted by: Oui | Jul 14 2014 21:53 utc | 24

@bevin #20:
Yes, France has an independent nuclear deterrent; Airstrip One doesn’t. (Jesus, I had forgotten that that name comes from 1984.)
By the way, how do you feel about Scottish independence? I think it would be another nail in the coffin of the Empire. Since the US Empire is a continuation of the British Empire, a breakup of the UK would produce a significant symbolic impact.

Posted by: Demian | Jul 14 2014 22:14 utc | 25

@16 horsewhisperer – that is interesting. i have always been under the impression israel had nuclear weapons but didn’t want to reveal or not reveal there having them. i suppose when you have the usa in your back pocket, it is almost the same thing..
@18 slirs – that is how i see it too..
@ 19 chip nikh – your first sentence sounds about right..
@20 bevin – interesting last comment and comments more generally!

Posted by: james | Jul 14 2014 22:27 utc | 26