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Where Will ISIS Go Next?
Elijah J. Magnier has an interesting interview with an ISIS commander, Abu Baqr-al-Janabi, in Baghdad. There are plans for ISIS to take the city and there are apparently sleeper cells of fighters waiting for the big attack signal. But, says the commander, ISIS and the attached other forces, will first have to consolidate their positions and eliminate Iraqi government position in their back. The Iraqi government is already giving up some outer position and is consolidating its side by securing only Baghdad, the south and some economically important assets.
The 300 military "advisers" the U.S. had announced to send to Iraqi headquarters will likely never arrive. There is disagreement over their legal status and the Iraqi government, given the U.S. commitment to another regime change in Baghdad, may well conclude that these soldiers would likely be malign actors rather than trustworthy allies. The Maliki government, like the Iranians, probably sees the whole ISIS attack as the result of a U.S. conspiracy.
My hunch for now is that ISIS will not go for the big fight in Baghdad in the near term but will rather try to launch some substantial diversion elsewhere. In the introduction of the interview Magnier writes:
ISIS’s aim is not Iraq and Syria, it is the Levant and beyond. It includes Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel and more. “No Limits”, as I am told.
There was a pro-ISIS demonstration today in Ma'an, "Jordan's Fallujah" (video). Just like ISIS had sleeper cells within the Iraqi military it may well have some within the Jordanian forces or secret services. The road between Baghdad and Jordan is in ISIS's hand as well as the border crossing to Jordan. Involving Jordan would certainly see a military reaction from Washington. That is something which, according to the interview, ISIS would very much want. Could ISIS go, if only as diversion, for Amman before taking on Baghdad?
Posted by: somebody | Jun 25, 2014 12:04:07 AM | 125
“I hear everybody is hard at work to ensure a cease fire. The “rebels” just downed a helicopter over Slaviansk. I am sure they have enough anti tank explosives, too.”
As usual, worded in such a way to make it look like the people of Novorossiya are the aggressors and truce breakers.
This is what “cease fire” and “truce” mean to “somebody’s” masters (the west, the nazi side):
Igor Strelkov’s Combined Briefings, June 24, 2014
“Morning Briefing from the Militia, June 24, 2014
8:30 (MSK) – [The enemy] started intensive shelling of Semyonovka; smoke is rising over [the village]. We believe that the fire is coming from the Belyanskiye mountains.
On the railway Starus-Ogorodnoye near Stanitsa Luganskaya, railways were blown up, looks like in the near term there will be no trains from the direction of Moscow.
Also, based on unverified information, slagheap was smashed, an electrical substation was damaged, and seven people were trapped inside the mine as a result of the [enemy] shelling of Privol’ye and the “Privolnyanskaya” mine. One person was wounded, two were killed. Emergency crews are conducting the necessary works and rescue operations, the mine is being flooded.
9:50 (MSK) – During the night, Ukie armoured vehicles and equipment were relocated from the direction of Izyum. At this time, a column of Ukie [military] formations, consisting of nine buses with spotty green-black camouflage colouring, together with weaponry, four modernized APCs (armed with a 30mm AP (automatic cannon)), and three tented trucks marked “Persons,” one which is towing a PK (Kalashnikov machine gun), is proceeding through Krasniy Oskol, from the direction of Izyum and heading to Yatskoye, Krasniy Liman. This a second column [today].
Briefing from Igor Strelkov, June 24, 2014, 10:50
Yesterday evening, after 18:00, the enemy installed a mortary batter at a stronghold position in the Vostochniy settlement. And thereafter opened fire on the village of Semyonovka; 5 militia fighters were lightly wounded. We returned fire and destroyed one of the mortar detachments. Until the end of the light day, the road across Semyonovka was exposed to enemy tank fire; in particular, this fire was directed at “Gazel” automobiles that were delivering food to the city.
In the morning of June 24, artillery crossfire and positional combat resumed in the region of Semyonovka. We have wounded on our side.
At night we observed active movements of enemy infantry and intelligence groups in the vicinity of Kramatorsk. To the west of Kramatorsk, the enemy installed new checkpoints, reinforced with armoured vehicles, APCs and Hummers. Units of “Praviy Sector” [Right Sector], marked with Division “SS-Galichina” symbols, were observed appearing to the north-east of Kramatorsk, in the vicinity of the settlement of Malinovka.
As the main water-pumping facilities are occupied by the detachments of the Ukrainian army and the NazGuard [National Guard], it still remains impossible to reestablish water supply to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. The enemy continues to reinforce its foothold in the area of the settlements of Krivaya Luka – Zakotnoye. As a result, it is impossible to speak of any kind of truce being observed in the area of the military confrontation.
Information from the Militia Headquarters in Slavyansk, June 24, 2014, 11:00
At this time, the settlement of Vysoko-Ivanovka is being subjected to mortar fire. Water supply lines that deliver drinking water to Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and other DPR [Donetsk People’s Republic] cities pass through this settlement. The water supply lines are the target of the [enemy] shelling.
Commentary from Igor Strelkov, June 24, 2014, 13:24
Q: What type of detachments are now fighting with you – pravoseki [Right Sector militants] or servicemen of the Ukraining army (those who Poroshenko ordered to cease fire)? And what is your opinion about the results of the negotiations in Donetsk – and about the very idea of negotiations with Ukie bandits?
A: Any “conversations” with them can be conducted only from the position of strength – there is no other way. They cannot be trusted one bit. Not at all. With respect to your first question – all those who were ordered to fight continue to fight. Both NazGuard [National Guard] and the Ukrainian army. Under the guise of an “agreement to cease fire” they are trying to quickly and easily take up new positions and entrench themselves.
Q: Have the punitive forces used landmine traps?
A: Why would the bother with traps when they have “Okhota” [Note 1: NBU-P Okhota]? In conjunction with several OZMs [Note 2: OZM – a shrapnel/frag barrage mine], movement sensors and trigger extensions, [Okhota] makes a mine field practically impossible to pass or to remove.
Note 1: NBU-P Okhota is a landmine field control system.
Note 2: OZM is a Soviet-made shrapnel/frag barrage mine – an anti-personnel jumping mine with a circular area of damage.
Eyewitness Reports, June 24, 2014, 17:00
Ten “Acacia” self-propelled howitzers of the Ukrainian army have moved into the village of Varvarovka, near Rubezhnoye, at approximately 17:00. They have set up base at the abandoned cannery.
Briefing from Igor Strelkov, June 24, 2014, 18:31
In the course of the day, there were two additional incidents of enemy shelling against Slavyansk. Unfortunately, one of the militia fighters (born in Gorlovka), who was wounded in the morning, died. The last massive mortar shelling ended just minutes ago. Once again, militia fighters do not leave their trenches.
With respect to the helicopter – I have no news yet. Confirmation, if any, will be provided only after all details are determined.
The enemy continues to concentrate military equipment on its foothold in Krivaya Luka. According to information from the local residents, everyone without exception, including the very old, is being evicted from their homes. Blindfolded, and without any personal things, they are taken out of the village and told to go “where the hell they want.” NazGuard bastards killed several [residents] right on the street. All this, despite the fact that there were virtually no militia fighters among the village residents.
Briefing from Igor Strelkov, June 24, 2014, 19:45
Igor Strelkov: [The downing of the helicopter] has just been confirmed. This is the tenth helicopter destroyed by our forces. As payback, the enemy is now leveling Semyonovka with white phosphorus and shrapnel charges.
Posted by: scalawag | Jun 25 2014 5:21 utc | 130
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