Ukraine: Time Is On Russia’s Side

June 9, 2014

The Saker now calls for immediate Russian intervention in east Ukraine.

It would be a mistake if Russia would do this. The U.S. is only waiting for such a move. It could then again push the "Russia=Aggressor" meme and gain even more influence over Europe. The Cold War Version 2.0 that would ensue is in Washington's interest, not in Moscow's.

Russia has all the economic means it needs to press the U.S. puppet in Kiev into some agreement. That may take a bit of patience though. The Saker thinks time is on the Kiev side and prolonging the situation would help the coup government. I do not agree with that. There is no harm to Russia when it just sits back and waits until the economic crisis in Ukraine lets the Kiev regime crawl to Moscow and declare its defeat.

Posted by b on June 9, 2014 at 18:06 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Putin will not move, take the bait. If needs be he will let the Eastern Ukr. separatists go hang. That will damage him at home, but he can deal with that.
The talk of resettlement from E Ukr. to W Ukr. is just wild talk. It is actually – oh the irony – Russian as opposed to contemporary EU (or W) in flavor. Ridiculous. It can’t be done. And surely the oligarchs don’t want it, the coal, steel, etc. industries need workers. This is no way of getting rid of ‘separatists’ or ‘autonomists’ or ‘rebels’ ..Though, natch, the Kiev coupists are crazy, but feel they are in a position of strength with all their outside support.
Why would ppl in the E accept it? It is just another provocation, another threat, another F* you.
Putin will take on a huge amount of refugees thru some kind of ‘corridor’ etc. I reckon Russia’s ‘humanitarians’ are pushing for that or will be soon, watch the press, Putin will have to accept those who flee. Some will stay and bow to Kiev.
The Donbass will be emptied out (unless…there is still a tiny sliver of hope..) and become a ‘badlands’ ready to be re-colonised. A kind of internal re-colonization, which will cost all Ukrainians more than they can imagine.
Well, that is one scenario. As I can’t imagine the ‘separatists’ winning under any conditions.

Posted by: Noirette | Jun 10 2014 20:32 utc | 101

@okie farmer #100:
Also, thanks to Mike Whitney’s piece, I found out about this very interesting column in Die Zeit (although neither Whitney nor the site he quotes from which paraphrases the column give the link):
Europa muss seine Beziehungen zu den USA neu justieren (Europe must readjust its relations to the USA)
It advocates exactly the same policy for Europe that people at MoA have been arguing for.

With a view to its own interests, peace and economic stability in Europe, as well as to geopolitical considerations, it is high time for Europe to redefine its relations with the United States.
Europe has always been bad at the pursuit of its own interests. But its clear complicity in and the subsequent handling of the crisis in the Ukraine can only be interpreted in one way: in view of the increasing challenges with which the European Union is confronted, the European heads of state and government have abandoned the goal of a united and strong EU with an independent foreign policy, submitting themselves to a strategy made in Washington instead.
Already, some commentators have rightly pointed out that America’s strategic goals in relation to the Ukraine were clearly formulated in the year of 1998 by the former US national security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski. …
A policy based on European self-interest naturally … requires, of course, that Europe lies in a preserved and even deepened unified and strong West. It also demands however with regard to the economic and security interests of Europe and important geopolitical considerations, the preservation and deepening of Europe’s relations with Russia. And it asks, finally, that Europe’s own interests with respect to friends, such as the USA, are represented much more clearly (as the US also does) and these friends are clearly shown, if necessary, their limits.

Die Zeit is one of Germany’s most influential newspapers, so it is nice to see that these ideas are being circulated in the German mainstream.
An interesting and ambitious point that the author makes is that Europe should develop a state that is capable of acting in a unified, coherent manner, something that the EU obviously is unable to do. However, how Europe can develop such a state without excluding the UK and Poland is beyond me. Those will always be Trojan horses, determined to do everything in their power to make Europe act in the interests of the US instead of Europe. They will always be traitors to Europe.
Yandex translathion

Posted by: Demian | Jun 10 2014 21:30 utc | 102

Posted by: Cortes | Jun 10 2014 23:51 utc | 103

@89
Let’s think about that. Russia has a reasonably strong intelligence capacity, and if even Iran can bring down a drone (despite having much less resources to commit to such efforts), I’m sure Russia can use US drones as intelligence assets (think Hezbollah).
Attacking Russia directly will also open a can of worms, as Russia’s doctrine is first strike, last I recall. At that point, Russia attacks NATO in Afghanistan.
If NATO’s main force cannot handle Iraq, what happens in occupied Ukraine, current and former? Just think inflation, let alone military crimes. And if they move to Rostov Na Dony, worst case Russia conducts a nuclear strike on its own territory—although just conventional bombing some capitals would probably work better.
I don’t see Yeltsin—more like nuclear war.
Anyhow, good to see you come to other blogs a bit… MG’s censorship has become so laughable now, that their online version isn’t even worth commenting on—people just massage each others egos. (A trinity of bald heads eat together 😛 it takes MG to pull that off.)

Posted by: Johan Meyer | Jun 11 2014 1:22 utc | 104

Сводка новостей Новороссии 10 июня 2014
ANNA News report on the Southeast for 10 June. Has English subtitles.

Posted by: scalawag | Jun 11 2014 4:14 utc | 105

Russian Spring
Comment: 9th of June, with support of two armored engineering vehicles, a “Kramatorsk” company attacked a block-post between “Kramatorsk” and “Slavyansk” inflicting severe losses. The block-post was not seized, because the artillery batteries from “Karachun” put up a fire barrier; the attacking groups had to retreat.
Strelkov clarified that, in this combat, the combatants destroyed two artillery positions, an automatic grenade (?) and shot 2 armored carriers. Estimated battlefield casualties (to opponent) were 17-20 killed and about same seriously wounded. Early was announced a seized howitzer.
According to our data, the opponent sends here the conscripts. “National Guard” does not show up on the front lines. It is, probably, spared for later punishing actions. The junta sends here regular young lads to slaughter them, to support its authority by their bones.
From Strelkov words, the Ukrainian army is in informational blackout. The headquarters persuade them that South-East is rife with mercenaries, who paid 1000 hryvnia a day. They would encounter many descendants of Chechnya and North Caucasus.
Having arrived on the territories of ”Donetsk” and “Lugansk” Republics, the soldiers understand disinformation and become demoralized, which is only aggravated by disgusting logistics and treatment from command quarters.
Strelkov told that Ukrainian army dodges contact engagement. He asserts that after losses inflicted on 2-3rd June they keep distance of two – two and half kilometers, at which they can not be targeted by anti-tank rockets.
Russian Spring
Slavyansk.
Strelkov:

Total of yesterday’s tonight shelling of the city by Ukrainians: killed one woman, another severely wounded.
Total of our second ambush along the “Kharkov-Rostov” highway (I wrote about first yesterday – by “Mukha” (“Fly”, anti-tank rocket launcher) was burnt an armored carrier): 1 armored carrier was shot by RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) (unfortunately, did not flare up, was towed), 1 “KAMAZ” (truck) burnt, another seriously damaged, many opponent’s troops killed and wounded. Our side lost none.
Consequence of this ambush: what left of the column on its the way to “Slavyansk” turned back.
Through night, the opponent, from mortars, shelled outskirts of “Cherevkovka”.
The morning is calm so far.
From “Red Liman”, the opponent unsuccessfully shelled our positions by 120mm mortars. Our reconnaissance groups harassed it 1 km south-east of “Red Liman”. Outcome is unknown, our side lost none.
Today we hold funeral for 10 fallen combatants of the battle of “Slavyansk”.

Posted by: Fete | Jun 11 2014 4:29 utc | 106

Demian, EU Vox had a similar article, but certainly not as influentual as Die Zeit. I think since NSA’s bugging of Merkel’s phone there’s a lot of rethinking of Germany’s relationship with US. It seemed to die down after the initial hubbub, but there’s a lot of resentment in Germany, both in the press and the population, of US eavesdroppiing.
Thanks for ferreting out that link.

Posted by: okie farmer | Jun 11 2014 6:09 utc | 107

Cortes, I agree with you. Driving down the price of oil seems totally bizarre to me, too. My takeaway, however, was the line about normalizing relations with Iran would supply a big new source of oil to world markets – something I posted about on MoA about a month ago. I suspect Rouhini is neoliberal leaning, and someone the administration, and especially big oil thinks they can do business with.

Posted by: okie farmer | Jun 11 2014 6:18 utc | 108

@okie farmer #107:
If what turns Germans off the US is the NSA spying, as opposed to the US destroying country after country, and not even trying to hide that it does not consider EU countries to be sovereign states, I think that’s pretty sad.
Getting your phone calls tapped is trivial compared to your country still being under occupation by a foreign power almost three quarters of a century after you lost the war.
But if revelations of NSA surveillance is what the Germans needed to realize that they are not a free people so long as Germany continues to be a member of NATO, then so be it.

Posted by: Demian | Jun 11 2014 6:35 utc | 109

@ Demian: german common people don’t give a shite about NSA spying, only interested in “Germany’s next top model”, bashing poor Romanian immigrants as parasites and nagging about the EU ban of light bulbs (while happily dancing to the tune regardless). That’s as far as the german “rebellion” will ever go.
Germans are not free people as long as the country is occupied by the US and UK (that’s over 300 military bases and some 100,000 soldiers total), nothing at all to do with the dog-and-pony show called NATO.

Posted by: T2015 | Jun 11 2014 7:49 utc | 110

Demian @109, you’re exactly right about the “NSA revelations” being the less important factor to wake up Germany. It’s very discouraging that “destroying country after country” is NEVER mentioned by press or politicians – not only in Germany but all over Europe.

Posted by: okie farmer | Jun 11 2014 7:54 utc | 111

Demian
Germany are pathetic but they arent the only ones, the whole pathetic EU have accpeted the spying. Not even the left have done much to condemn this.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 11 2014 8:14 utc | 112

Speaking of the NSA, die Machtstrukturen des Empires have experienced a shock, from the second highest ranking Republican in Congress losing in the primary (the election among party members to select their party’s candidate for the post).
The libertarian web site Antiwar.com attributes the establishment candidate’s loss to his obstruction of efforts to reign in the NSA, but nowhere else have I seen the NSA mentioned in connection with his loss, neither in the corporate media, nor on allegedly progressive blogs.

Posted by: Demian | Jun 11 2014 9:06 utc | 113

Yey, wow, what a “shock”. A crazy warmonger replaced another crazy warmonger in a two-party system. A sack of rice fell over in China. The shocking change in politics will be… zero.
What was that with pigs and lipastick? Gosh. How dumb can people be?

Posted by: T2015 | Jun 11 2014 9:22 utc | 114

Okie farmer’s post contains a bizarre notion: that USG will happily drive down the price of oil to shaft the RF..
Unfortunately that would render deader than a dodo fracking, tar sands and corn to ethanol, I believe. Mind you, maybe food prices would decline a bit…
Posted by: Cortes | Jun 10, 2014 7:51:53 PM | 103
A pre-cursor to all this is of course that, by invading or threatening Oil producing nations for the last 20/30 years or so, the US has in fact been deliberately driving Oil prices upward.
I say “deliberately” because driving oil prices upward is a very predictable and very immediate effect of attack/invasion or even the threat of attack/invasion of all middle eastern nations and any oil producing nation (Venezuala/ Libya etc)
So: we are left with the inescapable conclusion that for the last 20/30 years or so the US has deliberately arranged circumstances that (very easily) predictably, and inevitably, increases the revenues of it’s declared main rivals/enemies (Russia Iran etc)
Now certain commenters here will immediately simply attempt to dismiss this reasoning as a mere by-product of US “ineptitude” (you know who you are 😉 – and this is also predictable and expected from such individuals. It seems to be their job here to attempt to dismiss any intelligent commentary/conclusions that detract from their main thesis, which they uselessly, and imho misleadingly (deliberately so again imho) bang-on about endlessly, of outright “Imperial US ineptitude”.
Other more intelligent readers might of course decide to pay absolutely no attention whatsoever to the professional “dismissers” and instead ask themselves “WHY does the US constantly take actions that will inevitably increase the revenues of it’s publicly self-declared “enemies/rivals”.”
——
PS: “Ineptitude” would IMHO be the least intelligent and most misleading answer possible to the question posed above

Posted by: OMFG | Jun 11 2014 12:09 utc | 115

Other more intelligent readers might of course decide to pay absolutely no attention whatsoever to the professional “dismissers” and instead ask themselves “WHY does the US constantly take actions that will inevitably increase the revenues of it’s publicly self-declared “enemies/rivals”.”
——
PS: “Ineptitude” would IMHO be the least intelligent and most misleading answer possible to the question posed above
Posted by: OMFG | Jun 11, 2014 8:09:08 AM | 115

This is the greatest question of all. Any other matter discussed is an offshoot of this very basic and most important question. Yet no one asks it let alone considers it. Because it’s the question that should never be asked let alone answered intelligently. That’s why I’ve been asking it and trying to answer it and I’m happy to see that I’m not alone. There’s at least one other person who’s also curious.
For those who are wondering, sorry I haven’t had a post up lately. I’m spending quality time on the Suwanee River hunting alligators.

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Jun 11 2014 13:09 utc | 116

um . . . yeaaaaaaah.
Problem is though, the conclusions you arrive at seem to me to be just plain silly, or even deliberately misleading.
Every bit as misleading as the “Empire of Ineptitude” theories so beloved of the pseudo-interlectual professional-dismissives that populate these threads
Your “It’s all that rotten Putin’s fault” shtick is really just a slightly more unbalanced variation on the “Putin=Hitler!!!OneONEOne” message that is constantly pumped out by the presstitutes of the Zio-MSM

Posted by: OMFG | Jun 11 2014 13:22 utc | 117

Your “It’s all that rotten Putin’s fault” shtick is really just a slightly more unbalanced variation on the “Putin=Hitler!!!OneONEOne” message that is constantly pumped out by the presstitutes of the Zio-MSM
Posted by: OMFG | Jun 11, 2014 9:22:06 AM | 117

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Jun 11 2014 13:37 utc | 118

Posted by: T2015 | Jun 11 2014 13:51 utc | 119

@ Hole: for the most part, that would be “false Jews” please, those mentioned in the famous quote: “I know the slander of those who say they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan”.

Posted by: T2015 | Jun 11 2014 13:55 utc | 120

That’s not my Q. Shtik at all. If you think it is, you’re distorting. You’ve asked the question, now attempt to give us the answer. Oh wait, I think I know — IT’S THE JEWS. Thanks Rowan, we know. It’s ALWAYS THE JEWS. And you call that intelligent? Oy vey!
Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Jun 11, 2014 9:37:54 AM | 118
Well done – you just revealed yourself for the idiot and fake that I suspected you were
No one but YOU so far, said anything about “Da Juice!”
Ps: whatever yer beef with Rowan, don’t include me, cos I ain’t he.

Posted by: OMFG | Jun 11 2014 14:01 utc | 121

That one is actually easy – most of the world’s economy, including oil-producers, is in the hands of the US/UK “investors” (just check the asset listings in the CAFR of any major US fund, bank etc.).
So basically it increased the earnings of the 1%.
Posted by: T2015 | Jun 11, 2014 9:51:58 AM | 119

hmm
your answer imho, is more than just a little bit glib, tbh
only ever-so-slightly better than the “It’s the Imperial ineptitude, Stoopid!” refrain one constantly hears from the pseuds

Posted by: OMFG | Jun 11 2014 14:06 utc | 122

To understand the world around you, simply go to one of the Ministry of Truth websites, c/o the local newspaper of record, the most authoritative local daily.
In France, that’s Le Monde.
At lemonde.fr type Sloviansk in the search box at the top.
The first image presented is Ukraine’s Dear Leader.
The second image leads to a brief article in date June 9, entitled “Sloviansk pillaged by the separatists.” Thanks to the international efforts of Minitruth, Oceania’s loyal citizens are able to learn that “the pillage of the city by pro-Russian separatists has provoked numerous fires on Sunday, June 8.”

Posted by: Matt Janovich | Jun 11 2014 14:16 utc | 123

That one is actually easy – most of the world’s economy, including oil-producers, is in the hands of the US/UK “investors” (just check the asset listings in the CAFR of any major US fund, bank etc.).
So basically it increased the earnings of the 1%.
Posted by: T2015 | Jun 11, 2014 9:51:58 AM | 119
that’s a pretty glib answer, imo, and only by a minute margin would it be considered some sort of improvement on the “It’s the Imperial Ineptitude, st*pid!!” answer so beloved of the fakes

Posted by: lol_OMFG | Jun 11 2014 14:16 utc | 124

This piece sums up everything I’ve been struggling to find words for these past months: http://bit.ly/1odG5MZ

Posted by: Oddlots | Jun 11 2014 15:48 utc | 125

Demian@113 Not only was Cantor all in favor of the NSA but he was an Israel-first guy, too. Plus Virginia has an open primary, so a lot of Democrats crossed over to get a Teabagger opponent for the general election. I think the people have had about enough of the double-talking Teabaggers. Not to say any Democrat would be better, but it infuriates me how easily people are fooled by the Teabagger ‘revolution’.

Posted by: Jim T | Jun 11 2014 17:07 utc | 126

omfg / lol.. good question which i don’t have an answer to..thanks for asking. here are some possibilities.
somebody has it in for the usa.
there is more money in making war then selling oil/gas.
the 1% are long, long term oil/gas calls.
i am curious to read an answer from you.

Posted by: james | Jun 11 2014 17:15 utc | 127

my answer to the question is this. USA are bunkrupted, they can`t fight wars, but they can banrupt more countrys with them. So USA are cowards.
they have nuclear bombs. And they use them to bankrupt others.
To bankrupt a country is similar to fight war with this country. So USA fears that a country will survive the USA and prosecute the liars and bastards of USA, so they try to destroy them before.
And the prosecuter of USA bastards is Putin and China. And in the long run they will prevail and win. The fucking USA is dead.

Posted by: ZX | Jun 11 2014 20:20 utc | 128

And yet, far from bankrupting their self-declare alleged “enemies/rivals” (Russia Iran etc) the US has helped create the circumstances that has poured lots of luvverly lucre into the Treasury coffers of their self-declared alleged “enemies/rivals”
Therefore the assertions above regarding bankruptcy are demonstrably false, and easily demonstrated to be so.

Posted by: OMFG | Jun 11 2014 20:51 utc | 129

New sitreps from both “Juan” and “the Saker” at the Vineyard of the Saker. Some serious gains by Novorossia, while the west’s nazi junta has seemingly pulled back the eastern military HQ in anticipation of a Novorussian offensive.
Ukraine SITREP June 11th, 16:28 UTC/Zulu: is something changing?

Posted by: scalawag | Jun 11 2014 21:33 utc | 130

Russian Spring
Comment: Between June 10-11 the north stretch of the front (“Kramatorsk”, “Slavyansk”, “Yampol`” (“Pit-Field”), “Lisichansk”) did not see changes. Through night 10-11, the opponent occasionally shelled “Semenovka” and “Cherevkovka”. At dawn, the shelling ceased and did not resume until evening. The combatants too refrained from artillery strikes upon adversary’s positions.
Based on reconnaissance data, the opponent proceeded to stock artillery ordnance in “Slavyansk”. In addition, Ukrainian side established a number of new block-posts along “Kharkov”-“Rostov” highway including secondary roads, in settlement “Bogorodichnoe” in particular.
As data suggest, the opponent uses this tactics on “Donetsk” direction as well; there, block-posts form a ring around the city on line of “Kurakhovo”, “Konstantinovka”, “Ukrainsk”. Overall, the opponent has advanced positions on 20-30 km toward “Donetsk”.
The opponent’s air force was inactive.
The combatants were fortifying positions, regrouping and surveying the opponent’s positions.
According to data at hand, a part of Ukrainian troops are demoralized. Many lack desire to fight population; block-posts are marked by immoderate drinking, trading of fire arms and ammunition …

Posted by: Fete | Jun 12 2014 4:14 utc | 131

@Fete #131:
Thanks for the update.
However, in a military context, the correct translation of противник is “enemy”.

Posted by: Demian | Jun 12 2014 5:10 utc | 132

ukraine regime using white phosphorous?
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a31_1402532538

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 12 2014 7:30 utc | 133

Militia: the national guard under fired Slavyansk phosphate munitions

“The local authorities made a decision on immediate evacuation of civilians.
According to representatives of the national militia of Donbass, a Ukrainian army attacked the outskirts of Slavyansk (Semenovka) and its surroundings. Along with a reactive system of volley fire “Grad” and mortar shells military has used the forbidden all over the world phosphate munitions. After an hour of the attack, local authorities have agreed to the immediate evacuation of civilians.
Shells with white phosphorus can cause extremely serious and painful injuries or to cause a slow and painful death. Treatment for such injury must be specially trained medical staff, which can also be phosphorous wounds. The area of damage shells with white phosphorus can reach several hundred square meters.
The use of such munitions against civilians, and during air strikes on military targets in civilian areas was banned by the Geneva Convention.
Such munitions were used in combat in Vietnam. In 2004 shells with white phosphorus was used by the U.S. army in Iraq, during the battle for the city of Fallujah. In mid-2006, during the second Lebanon war, similar munitions used by the Israeli army.
Note that Slavyansk have been repeatedly attacked. So the day before in the city a bus was hit, which was supposed to deliver a small consignment of humanitarian cargo in and out of a group of children.
The ninth of June , the Ukrainian military from mortar guns fired on a Semenovka and Cherevkovo under Slavonic. Killed at least three civilians, three other people were seriously injured.”

Video of shelling here.
The west used chemical weapons in their Odessa Union Trade Building massacre, again used the same CW in a Mariupol attack. Now the west attacks civilians in Slavyansk with phosphorus.

Posted by: scalawag | Jun 12 2014 8:01 utc | 134

@94 interesting comparison of NATO forces with nazis!

Posted by: Brian | Jun 14 2014 23:28 utc | 135

Given their sinister role in all this why have not NATO hq and White House been mobbed by angry euro and American antiwar protests ???!

Posted by: Brian | Jun 14 2014 23:37 utc | 136

Posted by: Brian | Jun 14, 2014 7:37:41 PM | 136

“Given their sinister role in all this why have not NATO hq and White House been mobbed by angry euro and American antiwar protests ???!”

Because many of the organizations which previously organized such protests have been thoroughly coopted by western establishment types and steered towards more western establishment approved activities. For example, such as condemning Russia for not worshiping gays, condemning Muslims for just about anything, hunting out and banning those in the group who don’t think Jewish people are superior to the rest of humanity, etc. That sort of establishment infiltration and subversion of the anti-war movements in the west has now converted most of them into establishment facilitating organizations like Moveon or FEMEN.

Posted by: scalawag | Jun 15 2014 0:03 utc | 137

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