|
Ukraine: The Association Agreement Is Likely To Fail
The temporary truce in Ukraine will soon be over and the Ukrainian army will then try to squash the insurgency by all possible means. It is unlikely to achieve that.
Today the coup president signed an EU association agreement in Brussels. The preferred trade status with Russia will thereby be over and the Ukraine will fall into a deep depression. Its industry is not competitive against western European ones and it can not be sustained without the Russian markets. The most knowledgeable engineers and workers, especially from the big weapon producers, will move to Russia and leave the Ukrainian industry to rot.
As Mark Adomanis correctly remarks:
The association agreement has always been seen in highly politicized and symbolic terms as a “civilizational choice” in which Ukraine would be able to leave behind its dark, eastern past and march forward into the safety and comfort of the European Union. This was a huge mistake. In reality the association agreement has nothing to do with culture or history and is much more basic: a highly technocratic bit of economic liberalization. There is no “European” way to end gas subsidies, and no “civilized” way to cut pensions. These steps are either taken or they are avoided. Since economic liberalization is not very popular in Ukraine, since Ukrainians continues to express extremely left-wing economic views, the struggle to implement free trade is likely to be long and nasty.
The agreement will still have to be signed off, and then implemented, by a new Ukrainian parliament. I seriously doubt that will happen.
Meanwhile the fighting in the east will continue and, when the coming push by the army fails as it is likely to do, will see further steps towards more independence for the eastern regions.
Posted by: james | Jul 3, 2014 11:33:46 PM | 188
Posted by: james | Jul 4, 2014 12:25:23 AM | 191
Are you defending or excusing the propagandists at wikipedia? 😀 I’ll have to agree with Damian about wikipedia, it’s wasted time looking for info there due to it being completely infested with biased editors who are essentially just writing ad copy and disinformation. Piss on ’em.
—————
http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/www.kp.ru/daily/26251.4/3131140/ Hope BASS, Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda, Daria ASLAMOVA, The correspondent “KP” from Slavyansk: “Complete hell. People want to run”
Daria Aslanova told as exports from the besieged city convoy with wounded children [audio, video ]
In Slavyansk fighting continues between the Ukrainian security forces and militias. On the eve it became known that the national guard under bombed orphanage for preschoolers. From the event on radio Komsomolskaya Pravda passes our correspondent Darya Aslamova.
According to her, currently the city there is no connection, all the roads are cut off. People in Slavyansk waiting for help.
– Dasha, you are now moved in various cities. You were in Slavyansk?
– Yes. Yesterday we went on a humanitarian convoy in Slavyansk.. the So-called “road of life”, because all the roads cut. People need food. And there is no light. We were carrying a generator, because we need at least be included. No communication with any Slavic. And yesterday was cut off last March, there was just a battle. And we seven hours could not be reached, then under the bombing was going to Slavyansk to help. Through some fields… People go through is all because Slavyansk fully lined.
Complete hell. And here from Slavyansk we took yesterday wounded. Already carried at night. People want to escape. Many wounded, many children. We walked column. We had a convoy of four cars, full of wounded children. And now walked through the fields. And still we saw. It was the most terrible moment, probably, in my life, when we tried to slip. Thank God that all slipped. From this strange roads on tracks of the cars raced with a speed of 140. I don’t know how we made it out, but he left.
– You tried to shoot?
– Yes. Of course. They immediately start bombing. Is the mortar shelling. They try to cut all the roads. We found a guide who through the fields we were lucky. And the system such that the machine behind the machine. They see these machines. When the first machine was immediately goes explosion. We must wait. We are waiting for the green stuff, then one by one, trying to slip intervals that were not able to zero in the machines. And that’s the most terrible, because there’s a huge machine stuffed with people. All in the dark. Children cry. Don’t understand what is happening. On tracks of the rushes with great speed, and around the explosions.
– Dasha, occasionally there is a phrase in the phrase “humanitarian disaster”…
– Absolute humanitarian disaster! Yesterday I was lucky. It was a totally peaceful machine. This huge machine, so a perfect target. We were lucky diapers for children, tea, sugar, groats. The generator is the most important for them. Lucky wool, medicines, syringes. There’s nothing there. Elementary. Nothing there!
All fours to the eyeballs. It cannot tracks to go. Three tons. Need to break through. Drivers who go every day in Slavyansk on these roads. The car is absolutely prostrelennoe, on her holes like rats in cheese… As if it’s cheese. The whole machine prostrelennoe. And these drivers who the real heroes, they erupt every day in Slavyansk. Mate-verbal abuse, with vodka… I just shocked.
“Did you hear something, comment on some people? Would you believe it, that the militia and the army national guard of Ukraine will cease to shoot each other and peaceful people?
– In Slavyansk about’ve never heard. They have no communications, no Internet, no water, no electricity. Therefore, all our news to them do not reach. And they really don’t care, because there is a war. But according to the spirit of the people who came there, they are well armed, it really gives hope that Slavyansk will be held. The question is a humanitarian catastrophe. Need to break through the corridors.
Yesterday the last corridor was cut off. How will they? Yesterday they saw us. They and this road has been spotted. The Slavyansk right road.
– You said that was carrying the wounded. The wounded in the city of Slavyansk, Donetsk Hospital… at least has a function? I understand that not everyone can carry.
“I think maybe something and functions. Because it was not the objective. We took people, especially heavy. Was the first ambulance with heavy, and our car was lehtoranta children. Yesterday I saw bombed completely orphanage that was left to guard two completely insane woman. They just went mad from fear.
– What was said Pavel Astakhov, that, indeed, was bombed children’s home – is it true?
– Completely bombed the orphanage. Two women-the governess, they left. You know, maybe, it is ridiculous to someone that might sound, it is important to them – they guard… “And suddenly marauders comes. There the furniture inside honey.” I look at her and realize that people just went crazy! And here it is… And she had nowhere to go. She says, “And I have nobody in the whole world! What am I going to do?”.
Posted by: scalawag | Jul 4 2014 5:13 utc | 194
|