Ukraine: Putin Offers A Truce
The President of the Russian Federation keeps pressing for a peaceful solution in Ukraine:
We think the most important thing now is to launch direct dialogue, genuine, full-fledged dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives of southeast Ukraine. This dialogue could give people from southeast Ukraine the chance to see that their lawful rights in Ukraine really will be guaranteed.In this context, we appeal too, to representatives of southeast Ukraine and supporters of federalisation to hold off the referendum scheduled for May 11, in order to give this dialogue the conditions it needs to have a chance.
The announcement was made in a press conference with OSCE President Didier Burghalter.
I understand this to be an offer for truce which will be followed as long as the coup government is willing to actively negotiate with the federalists. It will be canceled should the coup government be unwilling to talk and continue with its "anti terrorist" campaign.
The offer is likely part of a more complex deal negotiated through the OSCE. The coup government has made zero progress. The federalist movement is growing after the Odessa massacre in which at least 36 of them were killed by a right wing mob. The coup government has little to gain but much to lose, half of the country, should it reject a deal.
But what are the external interest behind the coup puppets? The U.S. may like to continue and even escalate the confrontation while core European country have interests to calm everything and everyone down. Who of those will win?
Posted by b on May 7, 2014 at 16:54 UTC | Permalink
« previous pageDemian:
For example-
http: //vvv-ig. livejournal.com/ 690116.html
[remove spaces]
Same batch of pictures that's been on other sites, scroll down to "Женщина у лифтовой шахты .."
Posted by: VRainov | May 8 2014 4:45 utc | 102
The claim that at least one woman was "probably raped" is based on the body of a woman which was found next to the elevators in the Trade Union building in Odessa. Like most, the head and face and the hands were badly burned but most of the clothing survived. In this instance, the body is wearing no clothing below the waist, although her shoes are still on her feet.
This suggests rape or some sexual activity, but is not proof of it. It is, however, unlikely that whatever she was wearing below the waist was burned away in its entirety, but the shoes remained.
There seems to be some confusion between this death and the alleged rape of a pregnant woman. The latter looks to have been strangled with a phone cord or computer cord, but the photo does not suggest any indications of rape.
Recent polls in western Ukraine reveal that the population is almost evenly divided (around 40% to 35%, I forget the exact figures, but they were close) on whether the government should negotiate with the southeastern separatists or continue the military operation to crush them, so previous soft-pedaling which argued the hard-right fascists represented a tiny part of the population were way off the mark.
both comments on Saker about the Right Sector people hanging themselves come from Daisy2, both in speculative vein but s/he does mention having seen the tweet. I've only been around here a month or two but I haven't seen anything totally credible from the Daisy2 poster yet.
Would love to know more (hope it's true) but don't find anything at all in search about Right Sector suicides or hanging.
Posted by: Grieved | May 8 2014 5:09 utc | 104
Posted by: ProPeace | May 7, 2014 11:32:44 PM | 90
Thanks for this economic hit man analysis of the IMF loan to Ukraine.
The hoped for kick backs from privatization explain why Yulia Timoshenko's clan claws to power to the point of murder and why they are in no mood for power share or compromise/or in no mood to stop trying to conquer Eastern Ukraine by military power.
It also increases the likelyhood that it is not so much Russia backing/paying the militias in Estern Ukraine but Ukrainian oligarchs.
It also explains the big "Russian" win - the "Kyiv government" does not have the legal or factual means to privatize what is left of Ukrainian state companies - for example this one or or this one
Democracy in Ukraine is the fight for kickbacks from privatization - or the ownership of the privatized assets themselves.
Now if - and they will negotiate for that - Eastern Ukrainian politicians get the right to decide on their economies presumably they will get the kick backs (and Russians get the companies). But as this is militia power now - something that never happened in Russia - I don't think the revolution can be stopped.
Historically the solution to revolution is war.
The whole dynamics explains very much what happened in all the ex socialist/state economy countries where big state owned companies could be privatized.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 5:14 utc | 105
@ Mark 97
I should backtrack from my post @ 78 - I was over hasty.
The Mommy Odessa reference is only to killing the pregnant woman, with no suggestion of rape necessarily. The rape surmise is as you say, the woman by the elevator. The point about no clothes below the waist weaves in with so many of the victims burned in the upper body only. The narrative I read surmises this woman was raped, then doused with a flammable substance and set afire.
I haven't had the stomach frankly to go back and review these pictures even with improved English narrative now. Writing this post, I begin to wonder what it matters if some women were raped, compared to the horrifying violence that occurred here. They were killed, and in a deliberately cruel and painful way.
Posted by: Grieved | May 8 2014 5:21 utc | 106
@VRainov #96:
Thanks very much for that link. I may have seen a pretty bad English translation of that, and stopped reading it before I got to the part about the likely rape.
@Mark #97:
Yes, "probably raped", indeed. In any case, there's little doubt that whoever killed her stripped her of her underwear first.
Not that it matters, but I feel vindicated about my skepticism of the link given at #62, which has the simple sentence "Women were raped." As the blog post that VRainov gave a link to observes, at least one woman "was most likely raped".
The reason I raised this issue is that the Kiev regime is engaging in the most crazy propaganda, reminiscent of NATO propaganda that Qaddafi handed out Viagra in order to help his goons rape girls. Since we are dealing with real fascist psychopaths here, there is no reason not to stick to the known facts. What the Kiev fascists are doing is bad enough; there is no reason to make reports of their atrocities sound like crude propaganda, with that English language article using the phrases "first pogrom" and "Obama genocide". Sorry, a pogrom is violence directed specifically at Jews, and one vicious massacre does not constitute genocide.
Posted by: PuppetMaster | May 7, 2014 11:09:55 PM | 86
I think they are captives of their backers
- US neocons who decide on US Foreign policy - they are a arms trade front and plan for a new cold war - main intention - make Russia the enemy of Europe - want a split of the country/as much conflict as possible/Russian invasion
- West Ukrainian Nationalists/Fascists - only they know the geographical parts they wish to claim, but no matter how huge the area, they want a split or submission
Yulia Tymoshenko's clan needs all of Ukraine to be able to deal. She tried a power share with Eastern oligarchs and was very successful with Kolomoisky. Problem is Kolomoisky seems to be incompatible with Russia.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 5:30 utc | 108
Posted by: Grieved | May 8, 2014 1:09:34 AM | 98
It is obviously fake. If the Secret Service cookbook gets used the next stage will be the murder of professionels - doctors, teachers, church leaders, centrist politicians - anybody who might unite a people. Pravy Sektor people are very safe at this stage.
Centrist local politicians already got killed and shot at.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 5:35 utc | 109
@Mark #103:
previous soft-pedaling which argued the hard-right fascists represented a tiny part of the population were way off the mark.
I think we need to keep in mind that the only "news source" that western Ukrainians who do not have access to Russian TV channels are exposed to is intense Ukrainian ultranationalist, virulent anti-Russian propaganda.
Posted by: Grieved | May 8, 2014 1:09:34 AM | 98
I did a web search also and didn't find anything, in English, but I didn't try looking using Russian terms.
But on the subject of right sector, I found a video at ANNA that is about them recruiting guys to go to Odessa.
Link to Наёмники за деньги едут убивать одесситов
Mercenaries for the money going to kill Odessa
"The announcement of people for work in Odessa was published "In contact". The correspondent of "ANNA-news" called the telephone number above and opened the provocation prepared in social networks.
On the phone he was told that the organization of the "United Ukraine" recruits young people to travel to Odessa, to "Odessa is not separated from the Ukraine. Paid, prices are different. "Power support" is not excluded, payment can negotiate."
Posted by: scalawag | May 8 2014 5:51 utc | 111
Another video I found shows possible bullet holes inside the Trade Union building.
Link to Одесса. Дом профсоюзов. Украинские власти скрывают правду
Odessa. The house of trade unions. The Ukrainian authorities hide the truthAs reported by an anonymous source told "ANNA-news" the authorities of Odessa strongly in concealing the real picture of the crimes - mass murder that occurred in the House of trade unions may 2. After inspection of the burnt areas was discovered that the walls artificially deformed and repulsed, not to leave traces of bullet holes. But despite the measures taken, in some places, in the walls remained the traces of the issued bullets.
"artificially deformed and repulsed" I think is about the pillar that looks like the plaster had been scraped off after the fire.
Posted by: scalawag | May 8 2014 6:11 utc | 112
A reminder of what is at stake.
After President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty on 18 March 2014 annexing the Crimean Autonomous Republic to Russia, the development of the Crimean offshore area has been thrown into a legal limbo. Senior Principal Researcher Julia Nanay reports…Tracts near the Crimean Peninsula, which are considered highly prospective and could in the future have helped Ukraine build its hydrocarbon production base, are now effectively off limits as these Black and Azov sea developments have slipped out of Kyiv’s hands.
Several international oil companies (IOCs) have been in negotiations for Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) for offshore shelf developments, which will probably now be frozen for the foreseeable future.
The mean volumes of undiscovered petroleum in the Dnieper-Donets Basin Province are estimated at approximately 84 million barrels (MMB) of crude oil, 4,739 billion cubic feet (BCF) of natural gas (286 BCF of associated and dissolved natural gas and 4,453 BCF of nonassociated natural gas), and 130 MMB of natural gas liquids. The mean volumes of undiscovered petroleum in the Pripyat Basin Province are estimated at approximately 39 MMB of crude oil, 48 BCF of natural gas (31 BCF of associated and dissolved natural gas and 17 BCF of nonassociated natural gas), and 1 MMB of natural gas liquids. The mean volumes of undiscovered petroleum for both provinces combined are approximately 123 MMB of crude oil, 4,787 BCF of natural gas (317 BCF of associated and dissolved natural gas and 4,470 BCF of nonassociated natural gas), and 130 MMB of natural gas liquids
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 6:20 utc | 113
@Mark #103, plus Posted by: Demian | May 8, 2014 1:49:02 AM | 110
Considering the Kyiv government legal and being in favor of them asserting authority in Eastern Ukraine does not necessarily mean you are fascist.
The US/CIA did engineer a liberal/fascist alliance. Just that the liberals cannot control the fascists - it is the same story in Syria, in Libya, in Egypt.
The US manages the destabilization, they are not capable of winning the outcome, just trying to ensure there is no winner at all.
All it does is prevent US competition to great costs for the US themselves.
In any game with many players the one who build his own strength without getting drawn into fights with other players is the one who wins in the end. The one who wastes his energy attacking other players comes out last.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 6:34 utc | 114
@somebedy #114:
Considering the Kyiv government legal and being in favor of them asserting authority in Eastern Ukraine does not necessarily mean you are fascist.
In the relevant context, abandonment of the rule of law = fascism
So yes, any Ukrainian who supports the present illegal putsch regime is a fascist, for all practical purposes.
You need to keep in mind that there is virtually no content to Ukrainian nationalism other than hatred of Russia, since there is no such thing as a Ukrainian nation, as your former chancellor Helmut Schmidt has pointed out. Thus, all Ukrainian nationalism is inherently fascist.
More Dutch Shell (Donetzk) and Putin is Hitler fun
Deterding, through the medium of Dr. George Bell, who brought about the contact, as to the attitude the Hitlerites would take in regard to the question of the Polish Corridor and the Soviet Ukraine, where there are rich supplies of oil. Rosenberg suggested to Deterding, through Bell, that at an appropriate moment unrest should be fostered in the Ukraine, and an attempt be made with the aid of Germany to wrest the Soviet Ukraine away from the Soviet Union and give it back to Poland, to whom it had belonged at the time of the ancient Polish kingdom. Germany in return should receive the Corridor back, so satisfying the Hitlerites’ nationalistic ambitions, and Sir Henri Deterding should be rewarded with mineral concessions for his efforts to persuade responsible British quarters to give tacit support to such an undertaking. Anyway, from the day of the Ukrainian Conference, Deterding has been supporting Hitler with considerable sums of money (which found their way into the Hitler exchequer through Dr. Bell), hoping that in case the Hitlerites should come into power, they would pursue at any rate an anti-Soviet policy.
...
Sir Henri was fanatically anti-Soviet as a result of the confiscation of Shell oil fields in Russia. Might be best if Ben does not mention this past history to his new chum, Vlad the Bad, who is rather keen to restore the Soviet empire and like Hitler, is delighted to have the fawning totally unprincipled support of Shell.
Shell’s collaboration is being seen as a hugely important event to be fully exploited for propaganda purposes by Putin.
This here is the September 2013 deal.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 7:21 utc | 116
And this here is Dutch Shell telling Putin that business will go on - as Siemens did.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 7:23 utc | 117
Posted by: Demian | May 8, 2014 2:45:39 AM | 115
It does not become true by you repeating it. As there are Basque, Catalonian, Tyrolean, Scottish even Bavarian secessionists so are Western Ukrainian. None of the above are fascist. In Western Ukraine there is a distinct fascist revival.
Good summary of the oil and gas angle
Interestingly, in June 2013, Ukraine's Prime Minister Mykola Azarov claimed that Ukraine would be natural gas self-sufficient within 10 years and that it would be able to export some gas as well by the mid-2020s. With Ukraine currently getting over two-thirds of its natural gas from Russia and being Russia's second largest natural gas customer, one has to wonder how much of a role recent oil industry activity in Ukraine and Crimea, in particular, have played in Russia's current political moves in the area. With major international oil companies about to break Russia's near monopoly on natural gas in Ukraine, would one have to think that Russia and Gazprom would feel somewhat threatened. When one looks at how many deals Ukraine has signed with multinational oil , particularly American companies, in the past two years, the timing of Russia's return to the Ukraine and American intervention in the situation seems more than coincidental.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 7:31 utc | 118
Correct reporting from Bloomberg on the Odessa massacre and the memories it revives.
And what a loss of Odessa means to Kyiv.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 8:09 utc | 119
RT@ "kiev vows to continue military op even if Donetsk referendum postponed"
So what is Russia gaining by this?
Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2014 8:34 utc | 120
129) A lot of moral high ground.
Full lengthy documentary/analysis of Odessa massacre. Everybody seems to have been filming.
I do not know how any "government" can survive something like that in the age of youtube.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 8:59 utc | 121
Great pictures here
Yats and DSK in Yalta!
http://www.les-crises.fr/responsabilite-ue-ukraine-1/
Posted by: Mina | May 8 2014 9:17 utc | 122
The statement of the MFA Ukraine is back - they mellowed the language but still want to "fight terrorism".
With all this video evidence coming out incriminating Maidan activists and Pravy Sektor in the Odessa crimes they will find it difficult to keep this line up.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 9:23 utc | 123
The "Kyiv government" will not be able to keep this up
A horrific fire that killed dozens in a hulking Odessa building where pro-Russian protesters had taken cover was likely sparked by rebels on the roof who accidentally dropped Molotov cocktails, according to a preliminary investigation by the government.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 9:27 utc | 124
Russia seeks fresh accommodation with US over Ukraine
Putin is desperate to prevent the conflict with the US and its allies escalating to the point of military conflict. Not the least of his concerns is preserving the loyalty of the Russian oligarchs who provide his regime with its social base, in the face of efforts by the US to drive a wedge between the oligarchs and the Kremlin. The US and Britain have both urged a boycott of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, with the White House asking Wall Street executives not to “send an inappropriate message” by attending.Neither will Moscow be indifferent to the possibility that opposition to the Kiev regime can get out of the control of the Russian nationalist elements that presently lead it, assuming positions that threaten Moscow’s own oligarchs in Ukraine who once made up the Party of Regions of deposed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych
Posted by: john francis lee | May 8 2014 9:43 utc | 125
This is the interesting part of the whole crisis
Wirtschaftsforum in Sankt Petersburg Obama lässt Konzernchefs nicht nach Russland reisenAmerikas Manager reisen nicht zum Wirtschaftsforum in Sankt Petersburg, weil die Regierung Druck macht. Unternehmenslenker aus Deutschland und Europa denken nicht daran, abzusagen.
Translation: Economic forum in St. Petersburg: Obama prevents US business leaders from traveling to St Petersburg. Company leaders from Germany and Europe do not intend to cancel.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 9:59 utc | 126
somebody
124
Why wouldnt they? They have managed to do it to this date.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2014 10:21 utc | 127
RT report that Donetsk wont stop the referendum. After all why would they?
Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2014 10:23 utc | 128
Posted by: Anonymous | May 8, 2014 6:21:51 AM | 127
Because it is the age of youtube. Post cannibal video, no one considers the Syrian rebels as viable political force anymore that could be officially supported by Western countries.
As the logic of armed conflict has eliminated all sane opposition to Assad, the West has no leg to stand on in Syria.
Same will happen in a prolonged Ukraine conflict - "pro-European" freedom fighters have become too toxic to be associated with - well for anybody except McCain.
Western countries need this "freedom fighting, human rights saving" front for their voting citizens to be prepared to support war. People don't want to look into the mirror and see themselves as energy robbing murderers.
The main impact of this video will be in Ukraine. Anyone who was prepared to give the "Kyiv government" the benefit of the doubt, will have made a decision by now. And that decision will be based on family traditions and the decisions their grandparents took.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 11:06 utc | 129
The referendum on independence will be held in the Donetsk People's Republic on May 11 as originally planned. This decision was just made by the People's Council of Donbass.
Donbass People's Council decides to hold a referendum on May 11 – Life News (in Russian)"We can guarantee that the referendum will take place in all regular polling places. We have printed over three million ballots. Information that the ballots were destroyed is fake. Everything is going according to schedule without danger. If we were to postpone the referendum for a week, we would have lost the trust of the people. 15-20 minutes ago we were faced with a choice: referendum or war. We choose peace and the just fight for the right to self-determination. The election commissions now employ 15,000 people. The world must understand that when millions of people are threatened, if millions oppose the state, then the state is to blame, not the people."
Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 8 2014 11:18 utc | 130
The rebels might lose the referendum. After all they won in Crimea by on 54%. The results where posted the other day.
Posted by: Bill Smith | May 8 2014 11:20 utc | 131
Maybe there are finally some good signes. According to Der Spiegel French President Hollande has invited Putin to participate in the D-Day celebrations in the Normandie and Putin has accepted the invitation.
Putin: Russlands Präsident kommt zur Gedenkfeier in die Normandie - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Kreml sendet in der Ukraine-Krise ein weiteres Zeichen der Entspannung an den Westen. Wladimir Putin hat seine Teilnahme an der Gedenkfeier zum D-Day in der Normandie zugesagt.
Posted by: Fran | May 8 2014 11:32 utc | 132
Pro-Russians to hold referendum in east Ukraine
....
Putin also spoke more positively about the Ukrainian interim government’s plan to hold a presidential election on May 25, calling it a “step in the right direction,” but reiterated Russia’s long-standing contention that it should be preceded by constitutional reforms.
His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, added on Thursday that the election could only be considered legitimate if Ukraine stops its “punitive operations” in the east and begins a national dialogue on resolving the crisis, the Interfax news agency reported.
A poll released Thursday showed that a strong majority of Ukrainians want their country to remain a single, unified state and this was true even in the largely Russian-speaking east where the pro-Russia insurgency has been fighting for autonomy.
The poll conducted last month by the Washington-based Pew Research Center found that 77 percent of people nationwide want Ukraine to maintain its current borders, while nearly as many, or 70 percent, in the east feel the same. Only among Russian speakers does the percentage drop significantly, but it is still over half at 58 percent.
The central government in Kiev has the confidence of only about 41 percent of Ukrainians, with a sharp divide between the west of the country, where support is 60 percent, and the east, where it is a low 24 percent, according to the poll.
Russia, however, is viewed with great suspicion, with three times as many Ukrainians surveyed saying Russia is having a bad influence on their country as say its impact is positive.
From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140508/NATION/305080060#ixzz317hgmGA1
Posted by: Virgile | May 8 2014 11:42 utc | 133
Posted by: Virgile | May 8, 2014 7:42:27 AM | 133
This is the original Pew source
As reported plus a minor detail - the majority of Crimeans support secessions.
Plus this
Nonetheless, concern about ethnic conflict within Ukraine’s borders has spiked in 2014. Overall, 73% of Ukrainians say ethnic conflict is a big problem in their country, including 40% who say it is a very big problem.
and this
The survey also asked respondents about the “Right Sector,” a nationalist organization that played a major role in the Maidan protests and whose presence has sparked worries about anti-Semitism and racism in Ukraine. Barely two-in-ten Ukrainians (19%) say supporters of the Right Sector are having a good influence on the country, compared with almost two-thirds (65%) who say the organization is having a negative impact. Overall, few in the country’s west (34%) or east (7%) give the Right Sector positive evaluations, although Ukrainians in the far west are somewhat more likely to describe the Right Sector as having a good influence (42%).
and this
In addition to negative views of the current government, many Ukrainians doubt Kyiv’s commitment to protecting citizens’ rights. Overall, roughly a third of Ukrainians (34%) say the new government in Kyiv protects individuals’ rights, while more than half (53%) say it does not. In the country’s east, people are particularly skeptical – about two-in-ten (21%) say Kyiv respects personal freedoms, compared with nearly two-thirds (66%) who say it does not. Western Ukrainians, on the other hand, have a more positive image of the new regime, with half saying it respects personal rights, although about four-in-ten in the west (37%) disagree.Perhaps due to a lack of confidence in the new political leadership and pervasive concerns about rights violations, fewer than half believe the upcoming presidential election in Ukraine will be fairly conducted.
and this
Crimeans are very satisfied with the leadership in Simferopol. Roughly eight-in-ten (83%) say Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov is having a good influence on the way things are going in Crimea. Similarly, 82% give the government in Simferopol high marks.A majority of Crimeans (65%) also say the self-defense forces have had a positive impact on Crimea. Self-defense forces played a major role in the events leading up to the referendum vote in Crimea. On April 17, Russian President Putin said he had sent the Russian military into Crimea to support the self-defense forces prior to the election.
In stark contrast, Crimeans are extremely critical of the government in Kyiv. Fewer than one-in-ten (7%) think the Ukrainian government respects personal freedoms. And just two-in-ten say the upcoming elections for the next administration in Kyiv will be conducted fairly.
The survey dates from April 5 – April 23, 2014
ie before Kyiv's "anti-terrorist action".
Results should be dramatically different now.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 12:12 utc | 134
somebody
I suspect the hate for russians is greater than seeing through the kiev regime in the west.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 8 2014 12:13 utc | 135
Mario Jose Medjeral @medjeral · 2h
@russian_market Russians have military exercise in Russia, Americans in Poland. Who is provoking?
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:07 utc | 136
The strategist - imperialist pov and analysis. Encircle Russia, etc. I don’t dispute it.
However, all this came about for a large part because Ukraine as a ‘buffer’ state was going to collapse. After independence, it was run by a clique of quarreling oligarchs and kleptocrats, with ersatz political parties (masks for clientelism exploiting chauvinism.)
They managed to squander the USSR inheritance (infrastructure, industry, etc.) and pretty much did nothing but steal, borrow, and play different interests against each other. Both Russia and the W supported Yanuko, as a Pres. who was at least fairly elected and as belonging to the Party of Regions, a majority one (which name already spells things out!)... Yanuko was but the last, the one who got hit with the crunch.
The offers for help he received were mingy and ridiculous, be it from the IMF (who negotiated for *years* with Ukr. and lost quite a lot of cash, it simply fell into a black hole), the EU, US, Russia. (This may have been deliberate, though not I think by the IMF which is very rule-bound.) Nobody wanted any part of this mess.
Enter the coup-ists, stage right. Ka-boom. They took an opportunity, saw their moment. Note 1.
Now what? Problem: while strategists may want to weaken Russia or oppose US-EU aggression, nobody wants to act in, or be responsible for, the Ukraine. One might even say that part of the coup-Gov does not want the East! Why? It is too expensive.
If Putin does not want the Crimeans to starve (which he cannot let happen) it is going to cost him a good chunk of Russian GDP. Even as things stand (the election results were fiddled imho) say half the Crimeans are waking up with a gigantic headache, and in any case they are in for a sharp recession and some tough times. Putin can’t afford more, has stated often that he is non-aggro on further expansion. Nobody else is interested.
Putin wants a Federation as a sort of status quo ante, and as a 'viable' solution.
That is, with Oblasts or ‘new’ Regions (with higher self-gov) having different ties to the outside. He conserves influence in the East, etc. (Note the Kiev junta has been nominating regional governors! - like Morsi did.) Ukraine remains a buffer-state and is in a more healthy position.
However, this proposition leaves intact the question of the form of the Central or Federal Gvmt. It implies (but has not been said in public) giving up the present political structure and starting afresh - after, and provided that, local hot heads can be contained. Points of rupture: negotiations that will be confusing, tough, etc. and the crazies on the ground who are on both sides of the aisle with paramilitary, ex-military, etc. and supporters. (Not to mention possible oligarch forces.)
To sum up, there is a small chance that a ‘Federalist’ prop. may gain ground. That implies the US is ready to give up a ‘make it or break it’ stance. (The EU would be relieved or follow.)
N.B. the other classical solution, Partition, is not mentioned at all, the very word is taboo.
1. “It is clear that NATO ‘strategists’ who planned the putsch were only thinking about weakening Russia militarily and gave no thought to the political, economic and social costs of sustaining a puppet regime in Kiev when Ukraine had been so dependent on Russian markets, loans and subsidized energy. Moreover, they appear to have overlooked the political, industrial and agricultural dynamics of the predictably hostile Eastern regions of the country. Alternately, Washington strategists may have based their calculations on instigating a Yugoslavia-style break-up...” James Petras
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article38442.htm
Posted by: Noirette | May 8 2014 13:11 utc | 137
Serhiy Kiral @serhiykiral May 6
WTF?Russian army colonel and LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky arrives in #Luhansk and donates "Tiger" to terrorists. pic.twitter.com/0GuGnsBR1S”
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:14 utc | 138
'Russia, however, is viewed with great suspicion, with three times as many Ukrainians surveyed saying Russia is having a bad influence on their country as say its impact is positive.
From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140508/NATION/305080060#ixzz317hgmGA1
Posted by: Virgile | May 8, 2014 7:42:27 AM | 133
so why is russia viewed with great suspicion but not the US regime or EU?
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:17 utc | 139
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking · 4h
Ukraine to continue "anti-terror" operations in the east regardless of rebel decision on referendum - top official http://bbc.in/1kQdsO8
neither the ukes nor the BBC care for he referendum
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:19 utc | 140
Russian Market @russian_market · 21h
Oh. Angela Merkel criticizes Poroshenko for his refusal to communicate with Eastern Ukrainians.
- And you ask why they hate Merkel in Kiev?
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:28 utc | 141
note:
President of Russia @KremlinRussia_E · 3h
The President sent Victory Day greetings to leaders of CIS, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and people of Georgia and Ukraine http://bit.ly/1j6eFzk
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:32 utc | 142
Russian Spring @diablo3xnews · 3h
About #Wikipedia Articles on #Donetsk & #Sloviansk seems Not objective, Urging everyone to update mis-information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic …
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:34 utc | 143
MFA Russia @mfa_russia · May 7
#Lavrov: What happened in Odessa on 2 May was a manifestation of pure Nazism #UnitedForUkraine
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:36 utc | 144
no worries with Ukraine sending troops to border:
Chris Sedlmair @Chris_Sedlmair · 1h
15,000 Ukrainian Troops Deployed On Russian Border: Defense Ministry http://ln.is/nblo.gs/fxGw8
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:50 utc | 145
another ILI(either/or)
Летиция @linaiolanda 2h
The choice on May 11 is clear: #Donetsk #DonetskRepublic pic.twitter.com/vgj8Ex8VWQ
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 13:53 utc | 146
Crimea&East @IndependentKrym 1h
the same maidan nazis who demanded berkut not to carry weapons, are now(as NationalGuard) using guns against unarmed protesters in #Mariupol
Retweeted by Crimea&East
Roza Kazan @rozakazancctv 2h
Reporter in #Mariupol: Ukrainian National Guard, armed, have taken back the City Council bldg, HQ of anti- #Kiev protesters.
Crimea&East @IndependentKrym 9m
I'd like to see the NazionalGuard in #Mariupol disarmed &left with only shileds&batons(like the berkut)& then bombarded with bricks&molotovs
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 14:11 utc | 147
somebody at 18 wrote: US and Canada are OSCE members. The organization works with consensus, it concentrates on security. (..) It will end with some sort of peace keeping.
The OSCE takes its decisions only on an unanimous vote, which means it never does anything much, is toothless.
It can only send ‘observers’ - they testify is all - and not ‘peace-keepers’ such as UN blue helmets.
members: http://www.osce.org/who/108218
OSCE is a visible actor right now because:
1) nobody else to step up to the plate (e.g. Ban Ki Moon, France, China...)
2) the present president of the OSCE is Swiss, and completely coincidentally the “President” (1) of CH, and CH and Russia entertain excellent relations.
Some links are overt - others underground.
All this affords CH visibility and kudos in its assumed mantle of neutrality and peace-keeping, and offers Putin an interlocutor he can at least trust not to betray him.
So the Int’l community applauds, which is in itself a good sign. Whether any positive outcomes follow is moot.
1. CH has no President. It has a Federal Council which has a president who presides, takes on roles representative, executive and ceremonial, by an automatic turning scheme based on seniority only. No power. In fact less as it takes up time and forces the person to be proper, consensual, politically correct, waste time on BS, etc.
Posted by: Noirette | May 8 2014 14:12 utc | 148
Crimea&East @IndependentKrym 7h
not OSCE monitor,active in Ukraine since November, resemblance to one of the Maidan snipers. big mistake freeing him pic.twitter.com/fKlZQxhzju
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 14:17 utc | 150
B
what a perfectly lame excuse for banning! this is a comments section: not a thesis centre...the tweets posted are information on the topic of ukraine, (or is your english that limited?) and are not random as you seem suggest...u may not like it but youre readers might... why not have a referendum and let them decide
But dont threaten me...thats a good way to tarnish your reputation
how pathetic!
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 14:25 utc | 151
the tweets are not from 'who knows who': if you bothered to go to the source, whuch i provided,. you can find out who they are.
after all...who are you?..a random letter B
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 14:26 utc | 152
Posted by: Noirette | May 8, 2014 10:12:07 AM | 148
OSCE does peacekeeping in the sense of monitoring the troops sent by member states - as in Joint Peacekeeping Force
The Mission participated actively in meetings of the Joint Control Commission (JCC), the negotiation mechanism co-chaired by the Georgian, South Ossetian, North Ossetian and Russian sides....Unarmed military monitoring officers carried out continuous monitoring in the zone of conflict, identifying sources of tension and reporting back to the OSCE Chairmanship and participating States in Vienna.
The eight monitors patrolled independently and in co-operation with the tripartite JPKF (comprising one battalion each of Georgian, North Ossetian and Russian peacekeepers, under Russian command and joint supervision by the JCC). Through establishing contacts with military commanders of the JPKF within the zone of conflict, they gathered information on the military situation. They monitored alleged and actual violations of the Sochi ceasefire agreement, helping to call attention to the possible political implications of specific military activity.
It is completely consensus driven - that is the only solution there is to be had - or civil war. But at some stage sooner or later it will come to this.
Posted by: somebody | May 8 2014 14:33 utc | 153
@brian "this is a comments section: not a thesis centre"
This is the comment section of my blog and there are no referenda here.
"the tweets are not from 'who knows who': if you bothered to go to the source, whuch i provided,. you can find out who they are."
Yeah, I can "go to the source", and waste my time doing so for a 100 comments per day.
I do expect comments that make sense by themselves, not comments that require me and other readers to click here and there to understand them.
If you are unable to make such sensible comments please don't waste our time by posting tweets from somewhere. If we want to read those we can go to twitter all ourselves.
@141 "Oh. Angela Merkel criticizes Poroshenko for his refusal to communicate with Eastern Ukrainians."
Petro Poroshenko is just saying 'fuck the EU', nothing surprising about that - he knows US State Dept and CIA are 'running the show'. He's was glad for Putin's endorsement of Presidential elections of course, happy to agree with Merkel on that, but talking to anti-fascists in the east - no way, crosses his 'red line'.
Posted by: okie farmer | May 8 2014 14:39 utc | 155
I have no time to go to Twitter, but when I did, I thought it was good to have people who surf it all day and provide here the names and views of some people to follow. I would only appreciate if Brian could clean the tweets a bit and even transform the tweets into real sentence (as long as he provides the source, i. e. the twitter identity of the author). It is also a way to follow what some politicians and journalists or "opinion makers" are saying there.
Posted by: Mina | May 8 2014 15:13 utc | 156
Having said that, some of the tweets above are irrelevant...
Posted by: Mina | May 8 2014 15:24 utc | 157
93;Well as every proponent of Russia bashing is a Zionist or paid by such,of course Zion has a hand in this Ukrainian mess,they have a hand in everything except Japanese domestic politics,and even there,I'm probably in error.
These Ukrainian right sector guys have made atrocity participants worldwide able to say,"Us,what about you crazy whities?"I read somewhere(Graun comments?)where a survivor of the trade union massacre said multiple rapes,garroting and immolation,baseball batting and other acts of barbarity were performed.No words from the intrepid MSM though.
And I've noticed that some commentors are finally getting to the nexus of our problem,the utterly contemptible lying Zionist controlled MSM,and their hand in all these dead people worldwide.There could be blood.We can call it "Awlakis Revenge",when and if it occurs.
Posted by: dahoit | May 8 2014 16:10 utc | 158
Ukraine News Links 7-8 May 2014
Ukraine News Links 6-7 May 2014
Ukrane News Links 5-6 May 2014
Posted by: William Bowles | May 8 2014 17:01 utc | 159
If you are unable to make such sensible comments please don't waste our time by posting tweets from somewhere. If we want to read those we can go to twitter all ourselves.
Posted by: b | May 8, 2014 10:38:13 AM | 154
not being one to let a good fight go to waste:
so youre saying ive never made an sensible comments? id like to see proof of that..
'your blog' was once Billamons, i know as i used to be here back then,... the whisky bar is now in a german straitjacket
'as for 'our time'...have you had a referendum yet to decide what everyone thinks? or do you assert your opinion is everyones?
Posted by: brian | May 8 2014 22:32 utc | 160
Posted by: somebody | May 8, 2014 4:59:26 AM | 121
"Full lengthy documentary/analysis of Odessa massacre. Everybody seems to have been filming."
A worthwhile time spent. That documentary included a lot of material I had seen before, but scattered about many short videos and descriptions. Seeing that scattered material put into context, and with English subtitles was very helpful in getting a better understanding of what went on there. Thanks for bringing it to everybody's attention.
Posted by: brian | May 8, 2014 6:32:32 PM | 160
Your posts here are one of the main reasons I look in here (more so than MoA articles). The "in crowd" here apparently don't want the info you post here, so are using your copying of tweets as a way to censor it. A way around this censorship is to quote the material and provide some context. That lack of context is the pretext they are using to censor you, so do like the Syrians did with the CWs. Remove the pretext and keep cleaning up. ;)
Posted by: scalawag | May 9 2014 2:20 utc | 161
Let's hope for no more massacres:
Ukrainian troops in Mariupol opened fire towards citizens.
Ukies against citizens of Mariupol 8 May 2014
Putin convenes Russian Security Council - 15.000 Ukrainian Troops near Russian Border
Kiev Plans False Flag Against Russia
Facebook is censoring this HangTheBankers.com article
The event is being hosted by Lynn Forester de Rothschild, and the host committee is stacked with other supporters of Clinton, such as Barbaralee Diamonstein-Spielvogel and Jill Iscol, according to a copy of the invitation. It will be held at de Rothschild’s midtown Manhattan home, not in the state where Margolies is campaigning.
Israel Assassinates Syrian General
Posted by: ProPeace | May 9 2014 8:35 utc | 162
somebody at 153, yes, i was only amplifying a bit, because there is much confusion about Burkhalter’s role etc.
Sorrentine’s ‘fake left’ (though it is hard to define ...) has one central characteristic: reliance on MSM news and outrage, horror, reactions, at this or that, re-cycle (green, after all), repeat. Right now the kidnapped high school girls in Nigeria are not a focus, as Nigeria is not in the news. Ukraine is IT! The Socialists in France (for ex.- I hate the Swiss ones too) are masters at this kind of manipulation, twist, spin. It is a spectator sport, a kind of corruption thru emotion and group-think, removed from reality and political analysis. Not that others are blameless, well, it would take a ‘thesis’ to sort that all out.
Posted by: Noirette | May 9 2014 12:01 utc | 163
The comments to this entry are closed.
@ProPeace #93:
Some will take offense at your comparing Putin to a Tom Cruse character. (Not that I have seen Jerry McGuire, since I avoid as many Tom Cruise movies as I can. And the combination of Cruise and an American sport is just too much for my stomach to handle.)
Posted by: Demian | May 8 2014 4:41 utc | 101