One wonders which U.S. politician or functionary visited Ukraine yesterday. After CIA Director Brennan had visited Kiev the coup government of Ukraine launched an "anti-terror" campaign against federalists in the east. That soon pattered out. Then Vice President Biden visited Kiev and the next day another "anti-terror" campaign was launched but stopped after Russia mobilized some troops and threatened to invade. This morning a third "anti-terror" campaign was launched when some Ukrainian security forces encircled and attempted to storm the city of Slovyansk. Who initiated this?
This attempt soon ran into problems. Civilians blocked or held up (vid) troop movements. But supported by helicopters some troops managed to capture a few outlying road barricades. Then at least two of the helicopters were shot down by MANPADs. It was not expected that the armed federalists had such weapons ready but it is also not very astonishing. When the Soviet Union was dissolved Ukraine ended up with a fully equipped force of some 700,000 men. Today, 23 years later, the Ukrainian military force has some 70,000 men. What happened to all the equipment? Most of it was sold off to third countries in shady deals but a lot was just taken away or sold by corrupt officers to anyone who would pay a decent price. I would therefore not be surprised to see more higher level weapons in the hands of the federalists who include some veterans of the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan and other well trained former soldiers and police forces.
The attack on Slovyansk stopped at the city gates with the city itself still in the hands of the federalists. For now the situation there seems to be quiet. Meanwhile there were clashes in Odessa between pro-Kiev and anti-Kiev rioters.
The IMF, which has approved a huge $17 billion loan to Ukraine, gave an ominous warning. Consider yourself to be one of those ruling Ukrainian oligarchs who hope to pocket significant parts of these loans. What would you think after reading this:
Ukraine is at risk of a prolonged recession and may need an extension of its $17bn bailout should tensions with Russia and unrest in the east of the country escalate, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
…
"A long-lasting disruption of relations with Russia that depresses exports, investment and growth, or a loss of economic control over the east that reduces budget revenue, would require a significant recalibration of the programme and additional financing, including from Ukraine's bilateral partners," it says.
Translation: "Dear oligarchs, screw up the relations with Russia and lose the east and you will get more free money." Such IMF talk is not designed to help with any de-escalation.
I do not expect the coup-government's move on Slovyansk to result in any success. The only gain from it will be more support for the federalists and greater alienation in the east. Anecdotal reports from journalists crossing government checkpoints pointed out that the interior ministry troops used in this government operation were pretty pissed about the orders had received from Kiev. They wonder how fighting against a significant part of the population is supposed to help the country. Then again – they likely did not get the above IMF notice.
Adding: Obama mentor and Russophob Zbigniew Brzezinski seems to push for escalation of the situation as he envisions U.S. weaponized "urban resistance" in Ukraine against an (unlikely) Russian invasion. His rant includes this most hypocritical beauty:
Above all the president must clarify why we cannot tolerate an international system in which countries are invaded by thugs and destabilized from abroad.
Ahem.
Also of note: Both, the Washington Post and the BBC have started to use the term "rebels" to describe the federalists.