Please use this thread for news and comments about Ukraine.

An internal presentation page by the National Security Agency, on page 167 of this big PDF and referenced in Glenn Greenwald's new book, says:

Oh Yeah …

• Put Money, National Interest, and Ego together, and now you're talking about shaping the world writ large.

What country doesn't want to make the world a better place … for itself?

Can such egoism of a "country" ever be justified? How?

The often criticized main stream media can sometimes do a good job. Here we have a case where some journalists really make a difference.

Videos of yesterdays referendum in east Ukraine showed seemingly high turnout with most of those taking part voting yes. Still the around 80% turnout numbers put out by the people who had called for those votes and did the counting are somewhat dubious. As are the coup-government claims of some 30% turnout. How would Kiev know? But some real journalistic work helps to gauge the numbers validity:

DONETSK, Ukraine — Residents of two regions of eastern Ukraine turned out in significant numbers Sunday to vote in support of self-rule in a referendum that threatens to deepen divisions in a country already heading perilously toward civil war.
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There were no independent exit polls Sunday. But it did appear that turnout was relatively high. Journalists from several Western news organizations interviewed 186 residents in the Donetsk region, away from polling stations, and found that 116 had cast ballots or intended to. A total of 122 favored self-determination. The results were not scientific but reflected the level of interest in the referendum.

According to the German FAZ, whose correspondent took some of the interviews, the following media took part:

Der Spiegel, Die Welt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Kyodo News Agency, Süddeutsche Zeitung, The Irish Times, The Washington Post, ZDF.

Most of these are German but had so far largely followed the propaganda filled, pro-Kiev "western" view. Now they find, in their admittedly unscientific poll, that about two third of the people in the Donetzk and Luhansk regions are in favor of more autonomy.

This is much larger share than one could have guessed from previous polls. But those polls were taken before the coup government in Kiev opened its fight against "terrorists" in the east and before right wing militia and mob mass-killed people in Odessa and Mariupol. As the Washington Post notes:

Residents’ attitudes appear to have hardened considerably with the deaths of dozens of pro-Russian activists in the city of Odessa this month and with reports that troops fired at a crowd in Mariupol last week.

In Ukraine's political circles there now seems to be a bit of turnaround behind the scenes moving against the coup-government's current path. On Sunday the richest Ukrainian oligarch Ahmetov announced to provide neutral security forces for Mariupol and today the Kiev imposed governor of Donetzk Taruta called for an end of the "anti-terrorism" operation Kiev has been pushing against the east. If yesterday's poll helps to bring up more of such voices it was already well worth the effort.

A week ago I sensed that there is resistance in Europe and especially in offical Germany against the U.S. led aggressive campaign against Russia:

Even the most staunch transatlantic tabloid in Germany, Bild, today reports (original here) that the CIA and FBI with dozens of agents are running the show in Kiev. The report is based on "German security sources" which lets me believe that the German government is looking for ways to counter Washington's moves.

More intentional "leaks" were published today in the same media, the high circulation Bild am Sonntag print edition. According to this online summary (in German by the Bild sister paper Welt ) two different issues were revealed:

• According to the German secret service BND some 400 U.S. mercenaries from the company Academi, previously Blackwater, are leading and coordinating with the Ukrainian army and police in operations against "guerrilla" in east Ukraine.
• According to NSA sniffing on Russian military communication, released to the BND, Russian pilots were ordered to violate Ukrainian airspace.

Both claims are sourced to BND security briefings in the German chancellery.

The first claim seems plausible as it confirms accusations made earlier in several Russian media. Commentators in the German media seem to accept it even while expressing some doubts about the second claim. Hardly anyone in Germany today believes anything claimed by the NSA :-).

Within just seven days two significant "leaks" to Bild, a chancellor Merkel supporting and staunchly transatlantic paper, blame the United States for the trouble in Ukraine. These "leaks" must have come from the chancellery and, them being true or not, confirm that there is some antagonism in the central political and security branches in Berlin towards the U.S. plans.

We can only hope that such antagonism will also find ways to express itself in political results restraining the U.S. from inciting civil war in Ukraine and a possible huge conflagration in Europe.

Nothing by me but Alastair Crooke, a former MI-6 honcho and diplomat, is just back from Moscow and has some interesting thoughts on the bigger historic issues which express themselves in the current events in Ukraine. As for current expectations in Moscow he elaborates:

In gist, the dynamics towards some sort of secession of East Ukraine (either in part, or in successive increments) is thought [in Moscow] to be the almost inevitable outcome. The question most informed commentators in Moscow ask themselves is whether this will occur with relatively less orrelatively more violence – and whether that violence will reach such a level (massacres of ethnic Russians or of the pro-Russian community) that President Putin will feel that he has no option but to intervene.
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And this the point, most of those with whom we spoke suspect that it is the interest of certain components of the American foreign policy establishment (but not necessarily that of the US President) to provoke just such a situation: a forced Russian intervention in East Ukraine (in order to protect its nationals there from violence or disorder or both). It is also thought that Russian intervention could be seen to hold political advantage to the beleaguered and fading acting government in Kiev. And further, it is believed that some former Soviet Republics, now lying at the frontline of the EU’s interface with Russia, will see poking Moscow in the eye as a settling of past scores, as well as underscoring their standing in Brussels and Washington for having brought ‘democracy’ to eastern Europe.

There seems absolutely no appetite in Moscow to intervene in Ukraine (and this is common to all shades of political opinion).

More, including some deeper history, at the link.

Alex Thomson of the British Channel 4 News reports from Mariupol:

[I]t seems clear that Ukrainian forces unleashed their guns upon Mariupol today and appear to have achieved precious little beyond alienating further the sizeable element of the population which wants rid of them altogether.

The city council of Mariupol was and is occupied and barricaded by federalists. There was also one bigger police station that was friendly with the federalists. It allegedly was held by Berkut riot police forces which had been abolished by the coup government. Today several BMP light tanks and BRT armored personal carriers drove into the city. Some unarmed civilians tried to hold them up. The city streets were flagged in anticipation of today's yearly victory parade which is held to commemorate the end of the long and bloody fight against the German nazi regime.

The BMPs seem to have driven up to the police station and took it under fire. Pictures showed a lot of damage and the building going up in flames. In some street nearby one BMP broke down and the troops it carried seem to have proceeded to their target on foot. While they were moving through the city unarmed civilians were shouting at them. At some point the troops opened fire and several people were killed and wounded. At least one man with a pistol was shooting back – videos from different perspectives: 1, 2, 3.

The whole operation in Mariupol today makes no sense to me. Why use hit and run tactics? Why use so few, badly trained troops. Why on such a sensible day? The interior minister of the coup government announced that 20 "terrorists" were killed in Mariupol. Journalists and hospital staff counted only three dead. Why is the coup government exaggerating the number of dead?

I am slowly coming to the opinion that the Kiev government and its CIA handlers are intentionally pouring oil into the fire. Do they know what they are doing? Do they know that they will have no chance to win should the east really rise up against them?

To them and everyone I recommend to read this probably first sane piece on Ukraine in the U.S. foreign policy media: Six Mistakes the West Has Made (and Continues to Make) in Ukraine. Excerpt:

Historians of the future will wonder greatly at the forbearance that Russia has shown in wielding its potentially vast influence (the ease with which Crimea was taken by Russia should be highly instructive), in contrast to the boldness verging on recklessness with which the United States and EU have sought to manipulate the political outcome in Kiev.

Recognizing the indigenous nature of Ukraine’s current problems, which often go back to promises left unfulfilled by past Ukrainian governments, is therefore a necessary first step toward dealing with them realistically. But it is only the first step. The next is to apply meaningful pressure on the interim government to do what it has thus far refused to do—establish a government of national unity.

From a February 2008 wikileaked cable by the U.S. embassy in Moscow:

Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.

Russia decided to not intervene, for now, and to leave the poison cocktail the "west" created boiling and in the "west's" responsibility.

Putin's offer from yesterday was not accepted within the Ukraine. The coup government announced to continue its "anti-terrorism" campaign against federalists in the east and the federalists in Donetsk and Lugansk announced not to cancel their referendum.

Elsewhere Putin's offer was somewhat accepted. It had, as Putin had announced, already been coordinated with the German chancellor Merkel and today the OSCE as the relevant organization presented a yet to be published roadmap to Russia.

If there is no serious offer of federalization in the roadmap Russia will let the Ukraine issue boil on a lower flame. The social-economic upheaval that is sure to come will in due time swamp away the coup government. Russia can always use its economic and energy leverage to hasten or slow down that process.

The whole case of Ukraine is no likely to be a longer run issue and, unless some unforeseen massacre takes place, I expect no further immediate action from the Russian side.

The President of the Russian Federation keeps pressing for a peaceful solution in Ukraine:

We think the most important thing now is to launch direct dialogue, genuine, full-fledged dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives of southeast Ukraine. This dialogue could give people from southeast Ukraine the chance to see that their lawful rights in Ukraine really will be guaranteed.

In this context, we appeal too, to representatives of southeast Ukraine and supporters of federalisation to hold off the referendum scheduled for May 11, in order to give this dialogue the conditions it needs to have a chance.

The announcement was made in a press conference with OSCE President Didier Burghalter.

I understand this to be an offer for truce which will be followed as long as the coup government is willing to actively negotiate with the federalists. It will be canceled should the coup government be unwilling to talk and continue with its "anti terrorist" campaign.

The offer is likely part of a more complex deal negotiated through the OSCE. The coup government has made zero progress. The federalist movement is growing after the Odessa massacre in which at least 36 of them were killed by a right wing mob. The coup government has little to gain but much to lose, half of the country, should it reject a deal.

But what are the external interest behind the coup puppets? The U.S. may like to continue and even escalate the confrontation while core European country have interests to calm everything and everyone down. Who of those will win?

As part of a complex deal of prisoner exchanges and access to food for some besieged areas the foreign supported insurgents are leaving Homs. The city was one of the early centers of their fight against the Syrian government and its people.

This is a great symbolic as well as physical loss for the insurgents. It comes as progress has also been made against insurgents east of Damascus. The additional weapons the U.S. send to the insurgents, mainly anti-tank missiles but also additional rocket artillery, proved to be not decisive. Ridiculous claims about the insurgents gaining ground are just that. Their renewed attempts to claim more of Aleppo were stopped by the Syrian army. Government forces now busy in Homs and east Damascus will soon join the fight in Aleppo and will attempt to free the city of insurgents. The insurgents are therefore clearly in retreat. Losses from infighting between the various Jihadi groups have weakened the insurgency and will negatively affect new recruiting.

That does not mean the the Syrian government has won. Far from it. The U.S. and its allies will do their best to keep the conflict going as long as it does not threaten to directly harm them. That point may come though as retreating insurgents will likely move to neighboring countries to look for new pasture.

There was little significant news from Ukraine today. Fighting around various checkpoints outside of Slovyansk continued with casualties reported on both sides and of civilians but no movement of the lines.

I do expect some more serious diplomacy over the next days but the continued amateurish behavior of the State Department, discussed here, lets me believe that there will be no progress in solving the situation without more conflict.

Allegedly: A polite green man from Russia Putin's Spetsnaz special force enforcer Ukrainian woman awaiting fascists in Slovyansk.

Two days ago a mob, supported by the fascists Right Sektor, killed over 30 federalist Ukrainians in Odessa by pushing them from their camp into a building and then setting fire to it. Those who escaped the massacre, not the perpetrators, were rounded up by police. Today pro-federalism people besieged the police headquarter in Odessa until the police released those it had earlier arrested.

In the east some military and National Guard units under government control were in sporadic fights with federalists but right now the government forces seem to be again in retreat. There were attacks on private bank outlets in the east because the owner of the bank, a well known oligarch, is suspected of financing the fascist Right Sektor paramilitaries.

The U.S. plan for Ukraine seems to be to bait Russia into an occupation. This would destroy EU-Russia relations, embolden NATO and help the U.S. to keep the EU as a secondary partner under its control. There would be lots of economic upsides for the U.S. in such a situation. Selling more arms and increasing energy market shares are only the starters.

There are two reasons to believe that this plan will fail:

First: Russia will not take the bait. The people requesting more local autonomy in Ukraine are perfectly able to take a stand on their own. Should a few die, like in Odessa, even more will rise up. Except for the Right Sektor people now included in the National Guard there are no loyal troops for the Kiev coup government to use against the people. The huge mistake the coup government made, repeating a U.S. mistake made in Iraq, was to dissolve the federal riot police Berkut. Those now unemployed trained fighters, together with experienced former Soviet soldiers, are the military backbone of the federalists. There is therefore no need for Russia to openly intervene. The Kiev coup government is already a dying entity.

Second: Many people in Europe have recognized the nefarious U.S. scheme and are protesting against their politicians’ slavishness in following the U.S. lead. The political pressure against Russia bashing is building. Every pro-NATO/anti-Russian report in the media, and there are lots of them, gets trashed in the comment sections. Some of the European elite are openly turning against the U.S. induced anti-Russia propaganda. Even the most staunch transatlantic tabloid in Germany, Bild, today reports (original here) that the CIA and FBI with dozens of agents are running the show in Kiev. The report is based on “German security sources” which lets me believe that the German government is looking for ways to counter Washington’s moves. The German Foreign Minister Steinmeier just called (in German) for a second Geneva conference to solve the situation.

Without Russian intervention and without German support the U.S. campaign against Russia is unlikely to reach its secondary target of isolating Russia. The primary target, Sevastopol harbor in Crimea, was already lost when Russia reunified with the island.

What is left to do then for Washington is to create more chaos in Ukraine and to hope that somehow out of total chaos some new chance may arise to stick it to Russia. For lack of real direction that strategy is also unlikely to succeed.

Kerry had fooled himself believing that Netanyahoo would ever allow for a Palestinian state. One hundred meetings later he finally admitted that such will never happen. Without robust U.S. pressure, unlikely to happen due to U.S. domestic politics, Netanyahoo and other right wing Israelis will never move from their absolutist position.

There is something to learn about self-illusion and the painful process of recognizing it in the Ynetnews interview with the U.S. negotiating team members, Inside the talks' failure: US officials open up. This line though stands out:

And then one of them added bitterly: "I guess we need another intifada to create the circumstances that would allow progress."

Maybe. Maybe a third intifada could help move the U.S. towards some serious pressure on Israel. I doubt it though. The Palestinians have better options. Join all possible international clubs including the International Court system, sue Israel, threaten to dissolve the Palestinian Authority, other steps. What is needed is unity and better, more decisive leaders. When will those evolve?

One wonders which U.S. politician or functionary visited Ukraine yesterday. After CIA Director Brennan had visited Kiev the coup government of Ukraine launched an "anti-terror" campaign against federalists in the east. That soon pattered out. Then Vice President Biden visited Kiev and the next day another "anti-terror" campaign was launched but stopped after Russia mobilized some troops and threatened to invade. This morning a third "anti-terror" campaign was launched when some Ukrainian security forces encircled and attempted to storm the city of Slovyansk. Who initiated this?

This attempt soon ran into problems. Civilians blocked or held up (vid) troop movements. But supported by helicopters some troops managed to capture a few outlying road barricades. Then at least two of the helicopters were shot down by MANPADs. It was not expected that the armed federalists had such weapons ready but it is also not very astonishing. When the Soviet Union was dissolved Ukraine ended up with a fully equipped force of some 700,000 men. Today, 23 years later, the Ukrainian military force has some 70,000 men. What happened to all the equipment? Most of it was sold off to third countries in shady deals but a lot was just taken away or sold by corrupt officers to anyone who would pay a decent price. I would therefore not be surprised to see more higher level weapons in the hands of the federalists who include some veterans of the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan and other well trained former soldiers and police forces.

The attack on Slovyansk stopped at the city gates with the city itself still in the hands of the federalists. For now the situation there seems to be quiet. Meanwhile there were clashes in Odessa between pro-Kiev and anti-Kiev rioters.

The IMF, which has approved a huge $17 billion loan to Ukraine, gave an ominous warning. Consider yourself to be one of those ruling Ukrainian oligarchs who hope to pocket significant parts of these loans. What would you think after reading this:

Ukraine is at risk of a prolonged recession and may need an extension of its $17bn bailout should tensions with Russia and unrest in the east of the country escalate, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
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"A long-lasting disruption of relations with Russia that depresses exports, investment and growth, or a loss of economic control over the east that reduces budget revenue, would require a significant recalibration of the programme and additional financing, including from Ukraine's bilateral partners," it says.

Translation: "Dear oligarchs, screw up the relations with Russia and lose the east and you will get more free money." Such IMF talk is not designed to help with any de-escalation.

I do not expect the coup-government's move on Slovyansk to result in any success. The only gain from it will be more support for the federalists and greater alienation in the east. Anecdotal reports from journalists crossing government checkpoints pointed out that the interior ministry troops used in this government operation were pretty pissed about the orders had received from Kiev. They wonder how fighting against a significant part of the population is supposed to help the country. Then again – they likely did not get the above IMF notice.

Adding: Obama mentor and Russophob Zbigniew Brzezinski seems to push for escalation of the situation as he envisions U.S. weaponized "urban resistance" in Ukraine against an (unlikely) Russian invasion. His rant includes this most hypocritical beauty:

Above all the president must clarify why we cannot tolerate an international system in which countries are invaded by thugs and destabilized from abroad.

Ahem.

Also of note: Both, the Washington Post and the BBC have started to use the term "rebels" to describe the federalists.