|
Ukraine: Donetsk Moves
There is obviously a somewhat coordinated operation going on in Donetsk oblast in east Ukraine. The province is famous for its mines and heavy industry. With some 4.7 million inhabitants it constitutes 10% of the Ukrainian population. Some action by anti coup-government groups were also seen in the neighboring Luhansk (Donbas) and Kharkiv oblast but Donetsk oblast is for now the schwerpunkt.
Over the last days people in Donetsk city had occupied several government buildings and barricaded them. The Alfa police units, SWAT operators, sent to kick them out allegedly refused to do so. A 48 hour coup-government ultimatum to clear the buildings was not followed up on. It is possible that the coup-government has found no loyal force that would do its bidding.
Today several other cities in Donetsk oblast also saw extensive movements of anti coup-government groups. In Sloviansk some para-military group, some of them somewhat trained (video), broke into the main police station and raised the Russian flag. They allegedly handed out weapons to other protesters. The mayor of Sloviansk had announced her pro-Russian stand. Around the city street checkpoints of pro-Russian militia, pictures show some mid aged men, went up. Many of these people are said to be miners from the large Donetsk coal mines. They are on the look out for incoming military and police traffic from Kiev. Trained people from the Berkut riot police, dissolved by the coup-government, have joined the protesters.
In Mariupol and Druzhkovka protesters have blocked or seized the local city administration. Police in Kramatorskaya joined the protesters there. The city of Luhansk, where there are also protests, and Donetsk were today at least once buzzed by military planes.
If have seen no Donetsk pictures yet of “polite green men”, i.e. Russian military operators, like those seen in Crimea. The militia people occupying buildings in Donetsk oblast also seem to be less equipped than the local self-defense groups that could be seen in Crimea. While this operation in several Donetsk cities today seems somewhat coordinated there is no hint yet that Russia is behind this.
The coup-government in Kiev has done its best to alienate the people in the east. From denigrating their Russian language to threatening them with genocide like the gas-princess Tymochenko has done. The economic situation in the east is bad and has, unlike the neighboring provinces in Russia, not recovered throughout the last twenty years. Under the new government the economic situation will likely get worse. These people are unlikely to need lectures from Russia to understand that there are better deals to have than the ones Kiev and the IMF are offering.
Should the coup-government in Kiev find some loyal force that is willing to suppress the mass movement in the east there will be severe fighting and Russia will probably step in. But I still find that quite unlikely. Russia, like Henry Kissinger, has argued for a neutral and strongly federalized Ukraine. The people in Donetsk could probably agree with staying in Ukraine if they get strong autonomy.
The coup-government in Kiev can not risk a fight and a possible Russian intervention which could end with the loss of the industrial heart of Ukraine. It will have to give in to the demand of the people. Unfortunately some blustering coming from the “west”, especially for the U.S. and NATO, may encourage some idiotic moves from Kiev before reason sets in.
Here are seven points about eastern Ukraine:
(1) The turnout size of street demonstrators in the eastern Ukraine cities has been truly small. Also, the turnout size has not been growing: Turnout size last weekend was smaller than it was in the first weekend of March. (Likewise, it’s also been small in Odessa city in the south).
(2) Most of the people in eastern Ukraine identify themselves as ethnic Ukrainians. Roughly half of these self-identified Ukrainian ethnics speak Russian as their mother tongue. In the city of Donetsk, the population is overwhelmingly Russian speaking, predominantly so as their native language. But only 38 percent of the population self-identify as Russian ethnics, while the bulk of the other 62 percent self-identify as Ukranian ethnics. Donetsk is the most Rusian of the large eastern cities.
(3) Recent opinion polls, conducted in late March 2014, show strong support in eastern Ukraine for eastern Ukraine to remain within the Ukrainian nation-state.
Item: A Public Opinion Poll conducted in Donetsk only, and published 9 Apr 2014 by the Donetesk Institute for Social Research and Policy Analysis, shows 66% of Donetsk citizens want to live in a united Ukraine, while 18% support a political union with Russia, while 4.7% preferred the option of living in an independent republic. In this poll, the Donetsk citizens were also asked if they had an approving or disapproving opinion about the occupation of government buildings in Donetsk by political demonstrators. Only 16% expressed their approval (smaller than the 18% who support a union with Russia), while 77% responded that it was “a wrong method”. My source in English: ref and that source in turn is citing Ukrainian language source ref which has more details about the poll (and this poll was widely reported in Ukrainian language news sources on 9 Apr 2014).
(4) Recent opinion polls, conducted in late March 2014, show huge divergence in political opinions between the populations of west Ukraine and east Ukraine.
The following is a Ukraine-wide poll conducted March 14-26 by a Gallup affiliate in Ukraine. The money to do this poll was provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the poll questions were designed and written by a USA-based, pro-Western, anti-Russian, policy organization, namely IRI.org. It was published 4 Apr 2014: ref (PDF file). The poll report is lengthy, and the second half of the report contains useful information about the political landscape in Ukraine, notwithstanding that the wording of the questions is tilted in favour of a pro-Western mindset. The poll shows a big divergence between western and eastern Ukraine in people’s political opinions about current affairs, on multiple separate issues.
(5) Interim prime minister Arseny Yatsenyuk, speaking in Donetsk yesterday, says his goverment has now decided to enact “decentralization of power” and wishes to enact it before the 25 May 2014 presidential election. I don’t have to give you a link for that, because it has been widely reported worldwide as new news. He chooses the word “decentralization” and not “federalization”, but that’s six of one and half a dozen of the other. Political support for decentralization of the government is very strong in eastern Ukraine. The Establishment in eastern Ukraine — the elected politicians and the captains of industry — wants decentralization, and does not want seccession. See e.g. ref. Russia wants decentralization for Ukraine, and Lavrov fully explained Russia’s reasoning about this last week when he said, “I really believe we should insist on federalization, not because it is our whim but because southern and eastern regions want that.” (ref). And I think anyone who looks at the Ukraine opinion polls — in which the big divergence in opinion between eastern and western regions is on display on multiple issues — should find in these polls another excellent reason support decentralization.
(6) Also yesterday, the interim prime minister Yatsenyuk said that he favours a method that does not involve the use of force in recovering the government building in Donetsk that is occupied by demonstrators. He favours more negotiations. But he does not rule out the ultimate use of force. The police in all the cities of eastern Ukraine have been restrained and liberal towards demonstrators so far. A right to protest is getting recognized even when the protest actions are strictly out of compliance with the law.
(7) A separate thing on display in recent opinion polls is that candidate Petro Poroshenko is almost certain to win the presidential election on 25 May 2014, even though he has very little support in the east and south of Ukraine. The pro-Russian Ukrainians have no viable candidate in the 25 May presidential contest. Once the election is over, the Russians lose their legal basis for possibly intervening militarily, because the legal request from the former president (Yanukovych) expires when the new president is elected. Now would be the time for the east to come out onto the streets and rise up, if the east were of a mind to rise up.
From all indicators, the east is NOT of a mind to rise up. My conclusion from the above seven points is that the Ukraine situation is almost certainly going to quieten down and be solved by civilized processes, involving federalization.
I wouldn’t bet on Ukraine’s money currency getting stronger, because improvements in the structure of governance do not imply improvements in the structure of the economy (not beyond the benefit of a return to basic law and order). The conventional wisdom is that the Ukraine economy is going to continue to be seriously problematic and I haven’t come across anybody with a basis for being optimistic.
Posted by: Parviziyi | Apr 12 2014 21:14 utc | 41
“Unfortunately some blustering coming from the “west”, especially for the U.S. and NATO, may encourage some idiotic moves from Kiev before reason sets in.”
How’s this for an idiotic move? The new head of NaftoGaz, a 35-year-old Teletubbie likely chosen for his political connections and his birth in the correct region, announced that Ukraine will not pay the set price for gas from Russia, and is “suspending payments”. That’s a little Ukrainian joke, because Ukraine already owes Russia $2.2 Billion for gas it has already taken and used, and has not paid anything for months. That’s after Yanukovych struck a deal with Russia for a reduced price and a $15 Billion buy of Ukrainian debt, of which Russia paid the first $3 Billion within days and Ukraine kept it and the new regime blew it.
http://rt.com/business/ukraine-russia-gas-price-168/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome
This comes in the context of a looming gas war which will see all the gas to Europe shut off. As you’re aware, Putin sent a letter to all the heads of state in Europe, warning them that Ukraine was being intractable about its financial obligations and that Russia could not continue to supply free gas. The reaction, predictably, was that “Putin is using the energy weapon”, just as if taking something without paying for it and getting all your new buddies to back you up were not economic warfare.
Ukraine just brought that one step closer by warning Europe that all its gas could be shut off and announcing that it had given Russia a “fuck you” ultimatum. No reaction from Europe yet, but it seems likely that the EU will back Ukraine in this, reasoning that a combination of economic sanctions and cutting Russia off from all its gas customers will force it to the bargaining table, at which time Ukraine can strike a deal under its own terms, in which they will offer some piddly token amount and then not pay it anyway.
http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1790268.html
This, I believe, is a terrible mistake. But the picture grows even more complicated: in the first piece, the concept of “virtual reverse flow” is introduced for the first time (that I’ve seen). This is merely an attempt to legalize siphoning, described as a process which would have Ukraine “holding onto some of the other countries’ gas as it passes through theirs”. The trouble with that is that it is illegal, specifically forbidden by contract law. Therefore, Ukraine is inviting the EU to be complicit in fraud that will allow it to get free gas (because they’re broke and can’t pay) by taking some of what is intended for other countries.
Except for the illegal part, that doesn’t hurt Russia, because Ukraine is already not paying anything, and if it skims some off the amount which is reduced by what they were shipping to Ukraine, it’s already paid for by someone else. But if Russia wants to curtail Ukraine’s free ride, they have to shut off everything, because some EU countries (Slovakia and Hungary) have offered to reverse-flow their supply to help Ukraine, although Slovakia made clear that it was not a gift and would have to be paid for. In fact, they seemed nervous about it being illegal as well, so they may back out. But as long as one country says they’ll do it and others might follow their example, the only way to be sure is to shut it all off. Ukraine appears to be counting on this, and counting on the EU to retaliate and do its fighting for it.
As I’ve mentioned before, Putin is scheduled to visit Beijing next month, and speculation is that he will return to Russia with a monster gas deal which will nearly make up for the loss of shipments to Europe. Russia has more than enough cash reserves to hold on until then, considering it will be losing at least $100 million a day. Then, adios, Euro-twats. If you want to be reasonable, see you at the table – if not, see you in the funny papers.
Posted by: Mark | Apr 13 2014 1:16 utc | 64
Not entirely unrelated- Salon has finally published the Hersh story, noting that the US media is refusing to touch it.
I’m reluctant to give the link , in case the page widens and the thread becomes impossible to read but here are a couple of excerpts, the first giving Salon readers some of the context of US Foreign Policy:
“….* The American-authorized coup in Egypt last July. In the disinformation universe, Washington watched at a distance. Since the coup, dead silence in the face of a blood bath, except for Secretary of State Kerry’s applause for the Egyptian army’s “restoration of democracy.”
“• In the war to depose Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, the linchpin event is the chemical-weapons attack last Aug. 21. We are invited — required, actually — to believe Assad allowed U.N. inspectors in to determine responsibility for previous gas attacks and then launched another attack near Damascus while the inspectors were settled in their hotel rooms.
“* The role of the U.S. and its European allies in financing, fomenting and steering the direction of the Ukraine coup requires little discussion at this point. Rather bizarrely in the face of all we have on record, the Obama people continue to insist Ukraine is nothing more than a case of Russian overreach. As order unravels in the eastern sections of the country, it is important to bear in mind the chronology of events — and from the beginning, not somewhere in the middle.
“* In Venezuela, the foreign minister recently read aloud portions of intercepted cable traffic documenting American subterfuge. No, no, no: Nicolás Maduro, successor to the late Hugo Chávez, is just as paranoid as his mentor, and both were merely trying to distract Venezuelans from their economic problems. (Vigilance is always essential when Washington and the hacks marshal the “distraction” thesis.)
“Cuba could go on this list, given news of Washington’s operation of a social-media network on Cuban soil via the customary collection of front companies, except that intruding covertly in Cuba is so routine as to be (appallingly) unremarkable.
“I find this an exceptionally busy schedule for the spooks and the nation-building set. We can explore the reasons on another occasion; for now, it seems also unusual that so much of what in an earlier time would remain hidden from view is not……
“..Seymour Hersh, the noted investigative journalist with a record of extraordinarily deep digging on behalf of obscured truths, has just made a significant contribution in this line. Here is the piece, just published in the London Review of Books. In it, Hersh detonates the Rube Goldberg of “evidence” concocted — not too strong a term now — to support the Assad-did-it case after the gas atrocity in Syria.
“It is the usual Hersh job: granular, multi-sourced, supported with document citations, a shedding of light, all from several layers beneath surface reality. This is especially important in the Syria case because the demonization of Assad has been so complete as to cause almost everyone to set logic aside. Lonely were they willing to say after the attack: We do not know the perpetrators here, but there is a compelling case that it was Assad’s adversaries, not the unsavory man himself.
“Hersh has just stitched this case, an important piece of work…”
By doing virtually nothing, Russia is making hay out of the Ukraine crisis. As ‘b’ notes the Kiev government has no chance of enforcing its will on the south and east. And is likely to start losing ground in Kiev and region too. This will leave the old Polish western extremities isolated and, probably, begging for their old masters to re-annexe them. I don’t believe that NATO will expand into Ukraine and it would be over extending itself if it did.
One of the gains Russia has made is in the vital area of world opinion: even in the US, the US government’s adventurism is being recognised and the demonisation of Putin simply has not worked. The credibility of the government-thanks also to Snowden and Greenwald and the gradual recognition that their warning was prescient and a great service- is lower than it has been in decades.
The entire Empire rests on confidence, confidence in the dollar and confidence in the power of Washington, it is eroding perceptibly.
There were reports today of “another” gas attack in Syria, after Ghouta, after Hersh, after the Turkish You Tube leaks, nobody believes in these allegations.
Just as in the Ukraine it is generally being confessed, even by the msm/propagandists, that Lavrov and Putin have been right, and restrained, throughout.
In the meantime, like Kagarlitsky, I pray for sanctions. Talking of which did anyone see the story in RT regarding China’s refusal to accept US GMO corn?
Posted by: bevin | Apr 13 2014 1:39 utc | 67
|
